ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
HOUSTON — Five times Juan Soto stepped into the batter’s box during his debut with the New York Mets against the Houston Astros on Thursday. And five times baseball’s $765 million man received steady boos from the Daikin Park crowd, none louder than in the ninth inning, with the game on the line.
Soto, fittingly, represented the game-winning run when he walked to the plate to face left-hander Josh Hader with runners on the corners and two outs. Hader, one of the best closers in the sport, quickly fell behind 3-0, then recovered with two strikes before unleashing a slider that darted away from Soto and out of the strike zone.
Soto waved and whiffed. He was, shockingly, fooled to end the Astros’ 3-1 win.
“His best pitch is the fastball,” Soto said, “so I was sitting on the fastball.”
Thursday’s Opening Day game, matching two clubs that expect to play in October, had a few pregame storylines. Future Hall of Famer Jose Altuve‘s first game as a left fielder in his age-35 season. Cam Smith, a 22-year-old slugger, making his major league debut less than a year after he was drafted. Clay Holmes, the former New York Yankees All-Star closer, starting his first game since 2018.
But it was, above all, about Soto.
A year ago, Soto also made his debut as the right fielder for a New York club in Houston to launch a pressure-packed season. But that team was the Yankees, the stadium was called Minute Maid Park and the pressure stemmed from the desire to impress with free agency waiting in November.
This time, he’s a member of the Mets, an air conditioning company owns this ballpark’s naming rights and the pressure stems from looking to prove he’s worth the largest contract in professional sports history.
Batting second, Soto cracked a single in his first plate appearance as a Met against veteran left-hander Framber Valdez. He walked in the third inning, flied out in the sixth and walked again — on four pitches — in the eighth. It was a typical Soto showing, skillfully patient but willing and able to pounce on mistakes.
And yet the Mets did not score for eight innings. Valdez began his platform season by holding the Mets’ potent lineup scoreless over seven innings on 90 pitches. New York showed signs of life against right-hander Bryan Abreu but still didn’t manage to score. It wasn’t until the ninth inning, when Hader clearly wasn’t in peak form, that the Mets finally pushed a run across.
Starling Marte singled, Tyrone Taylor singled and Luisangel Acuna worked a 12-pitch walk to load the bases to begin the inning. After Hayden Senger struck out in his first career at-bat, Francisco Lindor delivered a sacrifice fly to pull the Mets within a run, bringing Soto to the plate.
“You feel it. I think everybody’s like, man, let’s get Juan up and see what happens,” said Holmes, who surrendered three runs (two earned) over 4⅔ innings in his Mets debut. “And we’re able to do it. More times than not, we feel really good about it. And they made him work, and we were right there close. At the end of the day, if we got Juan up with a chance to win the game, anybody likes those chances.”
What followed was a one-on-one battle between two players elite in their respective crafts. Soto said he saw Hader, a five-time All-Star, “really well” even though he presented a difficult lefty-lefty matchup with a three-quarters delivery.
“We all want to do something in a big spot,” Soto said. “We all try to get the knock and try to bring the runs in and try to help the day in any way. But, for me, I don’t mind taking a walk right there. I have Pete [Alonso] behind me, and he’s a really good power hitter.”
Soto would have walked if he had laid off the 3-2 slider. But he didn’t, and his first signature Mets moment will have to wait at least another day.
But beyond the matchups and narratives, it’s also a good time to take stock of which players bring the most value into the postseason.
That’s where goals above replacement (GAR) comes in — my evolved spin on earlier all-in-one value stats like Tom Awad’s goals versus threshold and Hockey-Reference’s point shares. The core idea of GAR is to measure a player’s total impact — in offense, defense or goaltending — above what a generic “replacement-level” player might provide at the same position. It also strives to ensure the league’s value is better balanced by position: 60% of leaguewide GAR is distributed to forwards, 30% to defensemen and 10% to goaltenders.
To then assess who might be most valuable on the eve of this year’s playoffs, I plugged GAR into a system inspired by Bill James’ concept of an “established level” of performance; in this case, a weighted average of each player’s GAR over the past three regular seasons, with more emphasis on 2024-25. And to keep the metric from undervaluing recent risers, we also apply a safeguard: no player’s established level can be lower than 75% of his most recent season’s GAR.
The result is a blend of peak, recent, and sustained performance — the players on playoff-bound teams who have been great, are currently great or are still trending upward — in a format that gives us a sense of who could define this year’s postseason.
One final note: Injured players who were expected to miss all or substantial parts of the playoffs were excluded from the ranking. Sorry, Jack Hughes.
With that in mind, here are the top 50 skaters and goaltenders on teams in the 2025 playoff field, according to their three-year established level of value, ranked by the numbers:
Five series of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs have begun, and two more will begin Monday. Meanwhile, the two matchups in the Central Division are on to Game 2.
Here’s the four-pack of games on the calendar:
What are the key storylines heading into Monday’s games? Who are the key players to watch?
You might’ve heard about the 2010 playoff matchup between these two teams a time or so in the past week.
In that postseason, the overwhelming favorite (and No. 1 seed) Capitals, led by Alex Ovechkin, were upset by the No. 8 seed Canadiens, due in large part to an epic performance in goal from Jaroslav Halak. Halak isn’t walking out of the tunnel for the Habs this time around (we assume); instead it’ll be Becancour, Quebec, native Sam Montembeault, who allowed four goals on 35 shots in his one start against the Caps this season.
Washington’s goaltender for Game 1 has yet to be revealed, as Logan Thompson was injured back on April 2. But there’s no question that there is a disparity between the offensive output of the two clubs, as the Caps finished second in the NHL in goals per game (3.49), while the Canadiens finished 17th (2.96). Can Montreal keep up in this series?
The Blues hung with the Jets for much of Game 1 and even looked like the stronger team at certain times, so pulling off the series upset remains on the table. But getting a win on the unfriendly ice at the Canada Life Centre would be of some benefit in shifting momentum before the series moves to St. Louis for Game 3. The Blues proved that Connor Hellebuyck is not invincible in Game 1, and they were led by stars Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, who both got on the board.
The Jets have a mixed history after winning Game 1 of a playoff series, having gone 3-3 as a franchise (including the Atlanta Thrashers days) on such occasions. Like the Blues, the Jets were led by their stars, Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, but the game-tying goal came from Alex Iafallo, who has played up and down the lineup this season.
The Stars might like a redo on Game 1 after the visiting Avalanche essentially controlled the festivities for much of the contest. Stars forward Jason Robertson missed Game 1 because of an injury sustained in the final game of the regular season, and his return sooner than later would be excellent for Dallas; he scored three goals in three games against Colorado in the regular season. Also of note, teams that have taken a 2-0 lead in best-of-seven series have won 86% of the time.
Slowing down the Avs’ stars will be critical in Game 2, which is a sound — if perhaps unrealistic — strategy. With his two goals in Game 1, Nathan MacKinnon became the third player in Avalanche/Nordiques history to score 50 playoff goals, joining Joe Sakic (84) and Peter Forsberg (58). In reaching 60 assists in his 73rd playoff game, Cale Makar became the third-fastest defenseman in NHL history to reach that milestone, behind Bobby Orr (69 GP) and Al MacInnis (71 GP).
This is the fourth straight postseason in which the Oilers and Kings have met in Round 1, and Edmonton has won the previous three series. Will the fourth time be the charm for the Kings?
L.A. went 3-1-0 against Edmonton this season, including shutouts on April 5 and 14. Quinton Byfield was particularly strong in those games, with three goals and an assist. Overall, the Kings were led in scoring this season by Adrian Kempe, with 35 goals and 38 assists. Warren Foegele — who played 22 playoff games for the Oilers in 2024 — had a career-high 24 goals this season.
The Oilers enter the 2025 postseason with 41 playoff series wins, which is the second most among non-Original Six teams (behind the Flyers, with 44). They have been eliminated by the team that won the Stanley Cup in each of the past three postseasons (Panthers 2024, Golden Knights 2023, Avalanche 2022). Edmonton continues to be led by Leon Draisaitl — who won his first Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer this season — and Connor McDavid, who won the goal-scoring title in 2022-23 and the Conn Smythe Trophy as MVP of the playoffs last year, even though the Oilers didn’t win the Cup.
Arda’s Three Stars of Sunday
For the last several seasons, much of the postseason narrative for the Leafs has been the lack of production from the Core Four. So this was a dream Game 1 against Ottawa for Marner (one goal, two assists), Nylander (one goal, one assist), John Tavares (one goal, one assist) and Matthews (two assists) in Toronto’s 6-2 win over Ottawa.
Stankoven’s two goals in the second period put the game out of reach, with the Canes winning 4-1 in Game 1. Stankoven is the second player in Hurricanes/Whalers history to score twice in his first playoff game with the club (the other was Andrei Svechnikov in Game 1 of the first round in 2019)
Howden had two third-period goals in the Golden Knights’ victory over the Wild in Game 1, including a buzzer-beating empty-netter to make the final score 4-2.
Sunday’s results
Hurricanes 4, Devils 1 Carolina leads 1-0
The Hurricanes came out inspired thanks in part to the raucous home crowd and took a quick lead off the stick of Jalen Chatfield at 2:24 of the first period. Logan Stankoven — who came over in the Mikko Rantanen trade — scored a pair in the second period, and the Canes never looked back. On the Devils’ side, injuries forced Brenden Dillon and Cody Glass out of the game, while Luke Hughes left in the third period but was able to return. Full recap.
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Logan Stankoven’s 2nd goal gives Hurricanes a 3-0 lead
Logan Stankoven notches his second goal of the game to give the Hurricanes a 3-0 lead.
William Nylander zips home a goal to pad the Maple Leafs’ lead
William Nylander zips the puck past the goalie to give the Maple Leafs a 4-1 lead.
Golden Knights 4, Wild 2 Vegas leads 1-0
In Sunday’s nightcap, the two teams played an evenly matched first two periods, as Vegas carried a 2-1 lead into the third. Then, Brett Howden worked his magic, scoring a goal to pad the Knights’ lead 2:28 into that frame, and putting the game to bed with an empty-netter that beat the buzzer. The Wild were led by Matt Boldy, who had two goals, both assisted by Kirill Kaprizov. Full recap.
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Brett Howden buries Wild in Game 1 with buzzer-beating goal
Brett Howden sends the Minnesota Wild packing in Game 1 with an empty-net goal for the Golden Knights in the final second.
LAS VEGAS — NHL linesman Bryan Pancich left Sunday night’s Minnesota–Vegas playoff game 3:37 into the second period after a collision with Golden Knights forward Brett Howden.
Backup official Frederick L’Ecuyer took Pancich’s place in the opening game of the first-round Western Conference series.
Howden was trying to bat down a puck in the offensive zone when he appeared to make contact with Pancich’s head with both by the boards. Howden briefly kneeled down to check on the official before joining his team as the Wild went on an offensive rush.