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Donald Trump wants to redraw the political map of the world. His vision seems to be that smaller countries – such as perhaps Greenland, Ukraine and Taiwan – should fall under the sway of their local big power as the US, Russia and China expand their regional zones of influence.

There is a vicious logic to this new world order if one excludes the principles of democracy, independence, co-existence, borders and basic rights for all nations, regardless of size. It simply asserts that might is right. Mr Trump believes the US is the mightiest country and he is set on Making America Great Again at home and abroad.

Sucking up to the presidency

This is a grim prospect for a middle-sized post-imperial power like the United Kingdom. The leaders of Britain’s three main political parties have chosen not to go public with any private misgivings they may have about the Trump administration’s intentions. Labour, the Conservatives and Reform UK have all concluded that sucking up is the best way to handle the new presidency.

Many have wondered whether Donald Trump, a great admirer of King Charles, realises that Charles is currently also Canada's head of state, writes Sky's Rhiannon Mills. Pic: Jaimi Joy/Pool photo via AP
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King Charles. Pic: AP

This explains the astonishing reports that the King might invite the United States to become an associate member of the Commonwealth when Mr Trump visits him in Scotland later this year to plan his second state visit to this country.

Mr Trump has already welcomed the news about joining up with the Commonwealth. “I love King Charles. Sounds good to me!” he posted on his Truth Social platform.

There has been no official invitation to the president. “Associate” membership of the organisation does not exist. New members require the agreement of all 56 existing member countries. It is not up to the King, who is nominal head of the Commonwealth, or even the British government. And it is not called “the British” Commonwealth anymore.

More on Commonwealth

Still, stranger things have happened – will happen again now Mr Trump is back in the White House.

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The first approach may merely be an invitation to become an associate of the Royal Commonwealth Society (RCS), which describes itself as “a network of individuals and organisations committed to improving the lives and prospects of Commonwealth citizens across the world”.

The RCS has already offered that to Mr Trump in 2017 shortly after his first election. Nigel Farage delivered the letter in person. Like most clubs the RCS is hungry to expand and has also put out feelers to Ireland and Nordic countries.

Neither Mr Trump nor the British government would leave it at this trivial level. He is a great disrupter always on the lookout for the upside in any deal and with a record of turning some ideas which seemed laughable into reality.

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Why is Trump getting a second state visit?

Starmer government has overlooked everything

The prime minister laid it on thick in the Oval Office with the “unprecedented”, “historic” second state visit invitation. Most US presidents, including those who have been conspicuous friends of this country, never get one.

The Starmer government has decided not to criticise the Trump administration. They have overlooked everything from claiming Canada as the 51st state to top officials breaching security on a Signal phone group in which they expressed “hate” for “PATHETIC” European “freeloaders”. In direct contrast to their Americanophilia, ministers are reluctant to discuss closer ties with Europeans.

It would be entirely consistent with this government’s sycophancy to try to engineer a further inducement to the US in the form of closer involvement in the Commonwealth, a last vestige of UK soft power.

Sir Keir Starmer the Trump charmer.
Pic: PA
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Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump. Pic: PA

Trump as the King’s successor?

Mr Trump would see any deal as a takeover in which he was the equal to the King, and his probable successor as head of the Commonwealth. He would be likely to try to remake the organisation with a so-called “White Commonwealth” dominating the other members.

That would go down well with his ethno-nationalist supporters back home. It is already the vision of one British champion of US participation.

“Commonwealth union – not least a CANZUK union between Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK – really should be a cross-party no-brainer for the British. What exactly does the UK have to lose?” asks the political commentator Jonathan Saxty in The Daily Express.

This nation’s integrity would be at stake. Only a truly “perfidious Albion” would let Mr Trump into the Commonwealth in the hope of buying his favour.

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What happened when Starmer met Trump?

The King would not be happy

The King, who has done his best to indicate support for his realm of Canada against Mr Trump’s threats, would not be happy. The legs would still be knocked out from under Canada’s resistance. All Commonwealth members would face the option of going it alone outside the alliance or bowing to Mr Trump. The US would meanwhile try to exploit old British ties to counter China’s growing influence in Africa and Asia.

There are already some in the UK ready to throw in their lot with the US. But not all of the coalition which elected Mr Trump agrees with his imperialistic expansionism.

America First isolationists tore into him after his “sounds good” comment, on his own Truth Social network. One wrote: “HELL NO !!! We left UK & kicked their asses once, NEVER going back. Personally I don’t associate with TYRANTS. All of their ‘commonwealth’ can F off, eh !!! SCUMBAGS !!!”

Another posted: “No! King Charles has been amongst the top players of WEF, for years. He’s a globalist. Americans do not want to join their Commonwealth. The U.K. allowed itself to fall to muslim invaders & Charles has ‘secret offer’ for you? Hard no from ALL of your supporters!”

Alex Jones of the conspiracy website Infowars warned: “If you really try to make America join the British Commonwealth, 1776 will commence again!” adding, “I love Trump overall… but sometimes he does just the most terrible things.”

No sign Trump’s fanbase is deserting him

Terrible or not, there is no sign this fanbase is deserting the president. As their Signal chat showed his closest aides embrace his simplistic, extractive, what’s the “economic upside” for us approach to foreign relations.

The British government should think very carefully about what they are prepared to offer up voluntarily to a rapacious American bully in this global geopolitical struggle.

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Trump trade war: Why a figure of 48% is important as escalation nears

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Trump trade war: Why a figure of 48% is important as escalation nears

Here is a number to lodge in your brain in the coming weeks and months: 48%.

Last year a group of economists carried out an an analysis on the economic impact of the Iron Curtain; how much trade actually took place from east to west in spite of all the restrictions during the Cold War. They came to the conclusion that, at its height in 1951, “the Iron Curtain represented a tariff equivalent of 48%”.

As the world limbers up ahead of what Donald Trump calls his “liberation day”, that figure is worth keeping in your mind.

Right now, the average dutiable rate of tariffs on China is somewhere between 30% and 40%. But in the event that the president imposes another 20% of tariffs on China, the level of tariffs between these two trade partners will rival or possibly exceed those Iron Curtain levels.

President Donald Trump speaks at the White House on Thursday.
Pic: AP
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President Donald Trump speaks at the White House.
Pic: AP

No-one is sure what will happen next. What number will the President choose for his next round of tariffs? 10%? 20%? Or the 25% rate he has favoured for steel, aluminium and cars? Will the next round of tariffs announced this week be imposed on every country? Will they just be imposed on the so-called “dirty fifteen” the Treasury Secretary has talked about? Who, for that matter, are the “dirty fifteen”?

We don’t know the answers to these questions. Nor do other world leaders like Keir Starmer. Nor, for that matter, do many in the White House, it seems.

But, back to that number at the top. The tariffs being talked about by the president and his colleagues are now approaching serious levels. Once you start facing cumulative tariffs approaching 50% then, as we saw during the Cold War, many countries stop trading altogether.

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And with those kinds of charges looming it’s no surprise many businesses and traders are taking radical steps to try to prepare for the coming months of chaos. Consider two examples.

 Gold

The first is to be found if you look at the exports (transfers is probably a better word in this case) of gold from the UK to the US. Up until a few months ago these flows averaged about £22m a month. Then, as traders fretted about the imposition of tariffs and controls on everything (including gold), there was a totally unprecedented exodus of gold bars from the UK to the US – £1.2bn in December and £6.1bn in January. These numbers, it goes without saying, are totally unprecedented. We’ve never seen outflows like this before.

Deficit

The other data point (somewhat related) is to be found by looking at the US balance of payments. Remember the whole point of these tariffs is to try to eliminate (or at least reduce) America’s trade deficit with the rest of the world. President Trump wants the country to produce more goods and import less.

Read more:
What do Trump’s tariffs mean for the UK?
Tariffs: The rewards and risks for US as trade war intensifies

But in the past year, the US trade deficit has literally doubled. Up from £67bn in January last year to £131bn this January. Again, this is unprecedented. It’s a hallmark of the fact that importers were scrambling to bring as much stuff into the country as possible (not just gold, but machinery, metals, cars, electronics – everything) before tariffs got imposed.

The great irony, then, is that the first impact of the Trump tariffs has been to send the trade deficit in the opposite direction from the one the President is aiming for. It will, of course, lurch back the other way in the coming months. But where it ends is anyone’s guess. In the meantime, more chaos and instability awaits. Hold onto your hats.

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‘You can start with me’: Commander of NASA flight that was stranded in space for more than nine months says he is partly to blame

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'You can start with me': Commander of NASA flight that was stranded in space for more than nine months says he is partly to blame

One of the astronauts who was stranded on the International Space Station (ISS) has said some of the blame for what went wrong lies with him.

Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams splashed down off the coast of Florida earlier this month after more than nine months onboard the ISS.

The two astronauts docked at the ISS on 5 June last year, expecting to be there for just eight days.

Instead, issues with Boeing’s long-awaited Starliner meant NASA decided to leave them waiting in orbit for months.

Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore. Pics: NASA
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Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore. Pics: NASA

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Splashdown! Butch and Suni’s space saga is over

Wilmore: ‘Start with me’ for blame

Mr Wilmore was asked at a NASA news conference on Monday evening where he lays the blame for the issues with Starliner, to which he said, “I’ll start with me”.

“There were issues, of course, with what happened with Starliner,” he added. “There were some issues, of course, that happened that prevented us from returning on Starliner.

More on Nasa

“And I’ll start with me because there were questions that, as the commander of the spacecraft that I should have asked. And I did not, I didn’t know I needed to…

“Blame, that’s a term – I don’t like that term – certainly there’s responsibility throughout all the programmes, and certainly you can start with me.”

He then added that responsibility for the issues with returning home can be found “all throughout the chain”, including with NASA and Boeing.

NASA's Boeing Crew Flight Test astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams. Pic: NASA Johnson
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Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams. Pic: NASA Johnson

Williams: ‘Life goes on up there’

Ms Williams also said she was somewhat surprised by the interest in their prolonged space mission.

“Life goes on up there. I mentioned today that we pivoted and became [ISS] crew members,” she said. “You maybe sort of get tunnel visioned into doing your job.

“We were just really focused on what we were doing… ‘the world doesn’t revolve around us but we revolve around it’.”

Ms Williams then said: “I don’t think we were aware to the degree [people were interested], pretty honoured and humbled by the fact of when we came home, it was like ‘wow there are a lot of people’.”

During their long wait in space, the two US navy veterans completed spacewalks, experiments and even helped sort out the plumbing onboard the ISS.

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Stuck astronaut takes first spacewalk

Sky’s science and technology editor Tom Clarke asked the astronauts if the politics around their stay in the ISS made a difficult situation worse. Nick Hague – who also was onboard the Crew-9 flight – disagreed.

After explaining the timeline from the launch of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 to the return of the two astronauts, he said: “That was never in question the entire time.

“The politics don’t make it up there when we’re making operational decisions. There were a lot of options that were discussed, and the team on the ground… is gigantic, and everyone was working with a singular focus.”

Read more:
Stranded astronauts have just returned to a very different world

Pic: NASA
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Nick Hague (left) said political changes in the US did not effect the mission. Pic: NASA

Astronauts more guarded answers show NASA giving politics a wide berth


Photo of Tom Clarke

Tom Clarke

Science and technology editor

@t0mclark3

The life of an astronaut is all about preparation.

And as Butch and Suni faced questions for the first back on Earth time about how their “stranding” in space was treated like an orbital political football – that really shone through.

The astronauts looked healthy and relaxed, despite having spent 35 times longer in space than they had expected to.

They were happy to answer questions about their safe return, the effects of their extended stay in space on their bodies.

But when it came to politics, the answers were much more guarded.

When I asked them about whether politics had made their difficult situation worse, it was quickly picked up, not by the pair themselves, but by astronaut Nick Hague, their mission commander for the ride back to Earth.

“The politics don’t make it up there when we’re making operational decisions,” he said.

“There were a lot of options discussed by the ground team, and everyone worked with singular focus on how do we end the Crew 9 mission at the right time and maintain the safety and the success of the space station mission.”

Their reluctance to address the political questions around the mission is understandable.

They have returned to a NASA bracing itself, like many federally funded organisations, for possible budget cuts and the mercurial decision-making of Donald Trump and his close ally Elon Musk.

Both men had suggested it was a political decision by the previous administration not to return them to Earth sooner.

Painting their already scheduled return as a “rescue mission” – despite presenting no evidence of the claim it put NASA in an embarrassing position.

It has been maintained all along that the plan was for the pair to return to Earth with the next rotation of the space station crew. Which is what subsequently happened.

But in the current political climate, and still awaiting the confirmation of a new leader for NASA’s administration, it’s giving politics a wide berth.

The crew were also asked about how weird it was to return to Earth in the SpaceX capsule – and about the welcome party of dolphins that swam around the vessel after splashdown.

“I can tell you that returning from space to Earth through the atmosphere inside of a 3000-degree fireball of plasma is weird, regardless of how you look at it,” Mr Wilmore said.

“It’s thrilling, it’s amazing, I remember thinking about the structure of the capsule,” as the Dragon Freedom capsule descended at pace toward our planet.

“And then the parachutes open and… it’s exhilarating.”

Mr Hague then remarked, “I had requested dolphins as kind of a joke”.

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Dolphins greet returning astronauts

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Finnish president reveals Trump running out of patience with Putin over Ukraine ceasefire

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Finnish president reveals Trump running out of patience with Putin over Ukraine ceasefire

The president of Finland says Donald Trump is running out of patience with Vladimir Putin and is frustrated with him.

The Finnish leader spoke to Sky News after spending the day with the US president and playing golf with him.

Alexander Stubb said Donald Trump is “the only person who can broker a peace, a ceasefire, because he’s the only one that Putin is afraid of” – but is tiring of the Russian leader’s tactics.

Kremlin responds to Trump’s ‘p***ed off’ comments – Ukraine latest

Donald Trump gestures as Finland's President Alexander Stubb stands next to him at at Mar-a-Lago, in Palm Beach.
Finnish Presidential Office/Reuters
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Donald Trump played golf with Alexander Stubb at Mar-a-Lago, in Palm Beach, Florida. Pic: Finnish Presidential Office/Reuters


“There was a combination of impatience and a tad of frustration,” he said during their match in Florida over the weekend – and it wasn’t with his golf swing.

“We were talking a lot about the ceasefire and the frustrations he had that Russia was not committing to it.”

Mr Stubb’s comments confirm reports of a change in attitude by Mr Trump over the Russian leader.

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Trump ‘disappointed’ in Putin

He has until recently seemed more than happy to give Putin the benefit of the doubt, applying enormous pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy instead.

Putin’s refusal to accept a 30-day ceasefire though is changing that, according to the Finnish leader.

He said: “If there was a pendulum of trust and distrust, certainly Russian activity in the past few weeks has proven that we’re moving more towards the distrust side of things.”

Mr Stubb is urging the imposition of colossal sanctions on Russia if it does not accept the ceasefire by a deadline that he says should be set for Easter.

The US is considering sanctions on Russian oil, he said. “Oil, oil prices, serious caps on oil.”

Read more
Could Trump seek a third term?
Trump ‘p***ed off with Putin’
Why Trump’s golf course won’t host Open

Republican senator Lindsey Graham, who also played golf with Mr Stubb on Saturday, is proposing what he has called “bone breaking sanctions” if it does not comply with ceasefire demands.

Sanctions failed to deter Russia from invading Ukraine in the first place or reverse its invasion since.

But Mr Stubb insists Russia’s economic pain is now reaching a critical point and sanctions could tip it over the brink.

He said: “You never underestimate the capacity of Russians to live through discomfort. I mean that’s what the Soviet Union was really about. But at the same time, there has to be a wall at some stage. And I think that wall is approaching.”

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin at the APEC Summit in Da Nang, Vietnam, in 2017. File pic: AP
Image:
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Vietnam in 2017. File pic: AP

If Donald Trump is losing patience with Russia, is he prepared to do anything about it?

“I think we need a colossal amount of sanctions on 20 April if the Russians don’t abide by the ceasefire,” said Mr Stubb.

But is Donald Trump’s Finnish golfing partner confident he is going to apply that pressure?

“Fairly confident,’ he said. “More confident than hopeful.”

It may take more than that to persuade Putin there is something to really worry about.

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