Ovechkin’s still got it, and the Kings might finally have it: Early Stanley Cup playoff takeaways
The first 13 games of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs are in the books — thanks for finally joining the party, Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning — so each team has had a chance to show the new postseason version of itself.
Which teams and players made the best early impression? Who has room for improvement? How will all of it matter when it comes to the rest of Round 1 and the entire postseason?
ESPN reporters Ryan S. Clark, Kristen Shilton and Greg Wyshynski identified their top takeaways off of the first set of games, covering all eight series.
Read more:
Full schedule
Intel on all 16 teams
Top 50 players
Wyshynski’s bracket
Contender flaws
In just two games, the Avs-Stars series once again proves that all contributions are needed
One of them earns just slightly more than $1 million this season while the other has at least three games remaining on his one-year contract worth $775,000. Yet what they’ve done has been instrumental in why the much-anticipated first-round series between the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars is tied at 1-1.
Logan O’Connor is a point away from being tied for the postseason lead in scoring, while Colin Blackwell‘s second-ever playoff goal prevented the Avs from having a 2-0 series advantage before heading back to Denver.
It’s not that premier talents such as Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Jake Oettinger and Mikko Rantanen won’t play a role in the series. But for either team to keep advancing, they’re going to need help from the supporting cast. That’s something the Avs know all too well, as a lack of supporting cast has hindered them the past two years, whereas the Stars ran into that problem during last year’s Western Conference finals.
O’Connor is part of the Avs’ fourth line featuring Jack Drury and Parker Kelly that has already accounted for two goals and seven points; the bottom six has scored three of the Avs’ eight goals through two games. As for Blackwell, he’s a member of the Stars’ fourth line with Oskar Back and Sam Steel that had four points, with each forward averaging more than 10 minutes of ice time. The Stars’ bottom-six group at large was responsible for two of their three goals in Game 2. — Clark
0:50
Colin Blackwell comes up with big OT winner for Stars
Colin Blackwell sends the Stars faithful into jubilation with a great overtime winner to tie the series at 1-1 vs. the Avalanche.
Can the Core Four actually dominate a playoff series?
The Maple Leafs’ Core Four heard those criticisms about their past playoff performances — and they’ve begun to issue a rebuttal. In Game 1 of Toronto’s series against Ottawa, Mitch Marner led the way with three points, and all of William Nylander, Auston Matthews and John Tavares added a pair of points. Tavares added a goal and an assist in Game 2, while Marner, Nylander and Matthews all picked up assists.
Marner’s efforts were particularly noteworthy given his history of stumbles in the postseason. He had just three points in seven playoff games last season (another first-round exit for Toronto) and, in this ever-important contract year, Marner had further incentive to show he can be at his best when it matters most.
If Marner & Co. are finally primed to be big-time producers in the league’s second season (as they so often are for those first 82 tilts), then the Leafs may be on their way to actually fulfilling some long-anticipated postseason potential. Because no matter how strong Toronto’s goaltending is or how much improved their defensive play is, the tide has always turned with the Leafs’ top strikers.
Where the Four go, Toronto will follow. Right? — Shilton
The old guy has still got it
Whenever Alex Ovechkin scores goals, especially at home in D.C., I think back to something Tom Wilson said earlier this season during the Capitals captain’s successful pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record.
“There’s just a little extra excitement every time he scores,” Wilson said. “Everyone [on our bench] kind of jumps through the roof whenever he finds the back of the net — which is fitting because he’s always the most excited guy on the ice when anybody else scores.”
Look at Game 1 against Montreal when Ovechkin scored on the power play to give the Caps a 1-0 lead and the roof came off the place. Look at the celebration both from Ovi and the Caps when he ended the game in overtime — rather incredibly, the first postseason overtime goal of his storied career.
1:51
Alex Ovechkin’s OT goal wins Game 1 for Capitals
Alex Ovechkin’s second goal of the game is an overtime winner that gives the Capitals a 1-0 series lead vs. the Canadiens.
From the scoreboard to the dressing room to the vibes, he’s the pacesetter for this team. It’s hard to call his season underappreciated given the fanfare of breaking Gretzky’s record, but has there been a more overlooked MVP performance in the Hart Trophy race than Ovechkin’s this season?
Here’s what MVPs do: They rise to the moment in critical spots. The Canadiens are trying to pull a massive upset in the first round. Their strong third period to tie the game against a too-comfortable Washington team sent the game to overtime. A win in the extra session and all of those ghosts from past playoff humiliations might start haunting the Capitals. Ovechkin knows those ghosts. He has felt the tension that builds in D.C. when things go wrong against a lower seed. And he shut the door. Remember that if the Capitals manage to snuff out this upset bid. — Wyshynski
Are we currently watching the best version of Mark Scheifele … ever?
Few teams have faced the kind of questions the Winnipeg Jets have encountered for several years, because that’s what happens when a team has made it out of the first round only twice since 2011. The Jets’ 2-1 win Monday in Game 2 against the St. Louis Blues means they now have a 2-0 series lead for the first time since the 2021 postseason, which was also the last time they won a playoff series.
Now there’s another question: How dominant can Mark Scheifele be this postseason?
Consistency has been at the heart of Scheifele becoming a responsible, two-way center who has authored 10 consecutive seasons of more than 20 goals and 60 points. This season, he finished with a career-high 87 points, while his 39 goals were his second-highest ever.
Through two games against the Blues, Scheifele has either scored or created all but two of the Jets’ seven goals. Kyle Connor is the only Jets forward who has logged more 5-on-5 ice time than Scheifele. Even then, it’s just a difference of 31 seconds. The Blues have failed to score in 5-on-5 play when Schiefele has been on the ice, and they have mustered only two high-danger scoring chances in that time.
Yet the most jarring aspect of what he’s doing? He’s just a point shy of matching what he did in last year’s playoffs when the Jets were eliminated in five games, while being two points short of tying how many playoff points he has had over the past two years total. — Clark
It’s the Tkachuks’ world (we’re just living in it)
History was made on Tuesday night: For the first time in the NHL, two Tkachuks competed in Stanley Cup playoff games on the same night — and scored goals. According to ESPN Research, this was the 83rd time two brothers have scored on the same day of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Prior to the Tkachuks’ tallies, the last instance was when Marcus (Wild) and Nick Foligno (Bruins) both scored on April 21, 2023.
Matthew Tkachuk is no stranger to the postseason, having appeared in 72 games during his career with the Calgary Flames and Florida Panthers — 45 of them over the past three seasons. But Brady Tkachuk had to wait seven seasons until the Ottawa Senators made the cut, and he made his postseason debut in Round 1 against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Brady Tkachuk scored his first playoff goal in Game 2. He sent a between-the-legs pass in front of the net on the power play that deflected off the skate of Brandon Carlo and into the net. The Senators rallied to send the game to overtime, but Toronto took a 2-0 series lead on a Max Domi goal in the extra session.
“There’s no ounce of panic or doubt in this locker room. We’re looking forward to getting home,” Brady said. “Things happen. You’re not always going to get the bounces So be it. It’s just going to make it that much sweeter.”
Matthew Tkachuk played his first game since being injured in the 4 Nations Face-Off back in February, and he immediately made an impact. It was a negative one at first: Taking a roughing penalty against Nikita Kucherov in the first period that led to Jake Guentzel‘s game-tying goal. But he more than atoned for that sin with back-to-back power-play goals in the second period to make it 5-1 for Florida. He added an assist on Nate Schmidt‘s power-play goal in the third.
0:48
Matthew Tkachuk scores through chaos for Panthers
Matthew Tkachuk scores his second power-play goal of the second period to give the Panthers a 5-1 lead over the Lightning.
“What was on display was the hands. He has an incredible set of hands,” said Florida coach Paul Maurice, who otherwise felt that Tkachuk “wasn’t in the rhythm of the game” after his layoff.
Which means there’s room for improvement. Which is scary for the Lightning.
(Also scary: We’ve yet to see Tkachuck and Brad Marchand on the same line together, combining their powers for the apex of on-ice hockey trolling.)
The NHL playoff format is such that the Tkachuks could face each other in the second round if the Panthers advance past the Lightning and the Senators upset the Maple Leafs. One outcome looks a lot more possible at the moment. But never count out a motivated Tkachuk. — Wyshynski
Carolina’s fresh faces fitting in fine
The Hurricanes may have moved on from one all-star forward in Mikko Rantanen. But the skaters GM Erik Tulsky has brought to the Hurricanes — and subsequently retained — are still making their presence felt.
Logan Stankoven was the centerpiece of Carolina’s return in trading Rantanen to Dallas, and the rising star pumped in two goals against New Jersey in Game 1. Even before the postseason, Stankoven looked like a perfect fit for the Canes. The 22-year-old plays their style of game — he’s relentless battling for pucks, forechecks with conviction and has playmaking talents to spare. The way Stankoven has cultivated a natural chemistry with Jordan Staal is everything Carolina could have hoped for when he came on board. That Stankoven is giving the Hurricanes depth scoring when that has been an Achilles’ heel in playoffs past? It’s perfect. And he’s not the only one giving Carolina its money’s worth.
0:44
Logan Stankoven’s 2nd goal gives Hurricanes a 3-0 lead
Logan Stankoven notches his second goal of the game to give the Hurricanes a 3-0 lead.
Tulsky also acquired veteran forward Taylor Hall midseason, and his early playoff performance has been promising. Hall’s line with Andrei Svechnikov and Jesperi Kotkaniemi was excellent in Game 1 — even without breaking onto the score sheet — generating 12 shots on goal and out-chancing the Devils 20-6. They could be a significant weapon for the Hurricanes as these playoffs roll along.
Most importantly, Carolina doesn’t feel so top-heavy now. The Hurricanes have been tripped up before by diminishing offensive contributors in a long postseason run. The way their fresh faces are fitting in, though, puts Carolina on a promising track to greater playoff success. — Shilton
What version of the Kings will show up in Game 2 against the Oilers?
For all the strides the Los Angeles Kings made in Jim Hiller’s first full season, nobody quite knew what to expect once the postseason started.
And in some ways, there are still no guarantees beyond the fact that the Kings now possess a 1-0 series lead following their 6-5 win in Game 1 over the Edmonton Oilers. After building a commanding four-goal lead against the team that has been both the literal and proverbial roadblock the past three postseasons, the Kings were reminded of why no lead of more than two goals is safe whenever they play the Oilers in the playoffs.
Why? Because 12 of the 18 playoff games between the Oilers and Kings over the past three years have been decided by less than two goals. Maybe that’s what made Monday’s game so jarring yet so familiar.
But to witness the version of the Kings that rallied to win Game 1 with a Phillip Danault goal with 42 seconds remaining? It’s something the Kings have done before against the Oilers as they did it in the 2022 and 2023 postseasons… only to then lose the series.
Are the Kings are once again in for a similar fate? Or could they finally have the answers that get them beyond their perennial tormentors and into the second round? — Clark
Special teams already playing a special role
The Vegas Golden Knights drew fewer penalties than any team in the regular season. They earned the second-fewest power-play opportunities. And yet, Vegas had the second-best power play in the league.
How? Well, just ask the Minnesota Wild.
The Wild took just two penalties in Game 1 against the Golden Knights and were burned on the man advantage both times. That’s how Vegas works. They see an opportunity, they take it.
That’s something of a theme in this early first-round action, actually. There has been plenty of power-play action. And it has been a healthy factor in determining several outcomes. In fact, through an extremely small sample size, power plays are converting at the highest rate (33.8%) in Stanley Cup playoff history (records available starting in 1977-78).
Toronto scored three goals on the man advantage to take Game 1 of their series. Colorado and Dallas each already have two power-play goals. Same with Los Angeles. St. Louis has three — although it hasn’t helped them to a victory yet over Winnipeg. And interestingly, the Jets have just one power-play goal through two games but are tied for the most at even strength (five).
So how much will special teams continue to fuel some of these matchups? Toronto’s coach Craig Berube was quick to say his team shouldn’t be expecting to rely on multiple power-play goals per game to get by. Will clubs be able to tighten up defensively? And even if they do, will those singular man-advantage chances keep tilting the ice in one team’s favor like it did so completely for Vegas in Game 1?
It’s not always a foregone conclusion that regular-season success in any category can carry over to the postseason, but the quick returns in this one show how what worked before can keep carrying the day for some contenders — Shilton
The Wild have scored seven goals in their series against the Vegas Golden Knights. Kirill Kaprizov has had a hand in five of them, including a three-point Game 2 performance that helped the Wild knot things up at 1-1 headed back to Minnesota.
In Game 1, he had the primary assist on both of Matt Boldy‘s goals, which got Minnesota within one goal with 8:14 left in the third period before Brett Howden‘s empty-netter iced the 4-2 Vegas win.
In Game 2, Kaprizov hooked up with Boldy again to open the scoring with one of the best saucer passes in recent memory.
0:42
Matt Boldy goes five-hole to put Wild in front
Matt Boldy nets his third goal of the series as the Wild take a 1-0 lead over the Golden Knights.
“That might have been the best pass I’ve ever seen. It was unbelievable,” Boldy said. “He is a special player.”
The Wild built a 3-0 lead after the first period. Kaprizov’s goal 3:59 into the second period offered a huge bit of insurance as Vegas rallied. He then iced the game with an empty-netter to complete the two-goal night.
There’s a certain poetry in Kaprizov being an early postseason MVP, when one considers how his regular season turned out. The Wild star was limited to 41 games thanks to a lower-body injury that required surgery in January. Please recall the ESPN Awards Watch for that month, which Kaprizov still led while having already missed a few games. Were it not for his injury, it’s entirely conceivable that Kirill the Thrill ends up as a Hart Trophy finalist.
Instead, he’ll have to settle for being Minnesota’s offensive savior in the playoffs, helping to orchestrate a possible upset over the division champion Golden Knights. The Twin Cities should be rocking for Game 3 on Thursday. — Wyshynski
Alabama wide receiver Ryan Williams is not expected to play against Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday as he works through the protocol from a concussion suffered against Florida State, sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel.
Williams, a preseason Associated Press All-American, was helped off the field midway through the fourth quarter of the 31-17 loss last Saturday after his helmet slammed into the ground following his third dropped pass of the game. Florida State safety Earl Little was flagged for targeting on the play, but the penalty was overturned after review.
Williams had five receptions for 30 yards before leaving the game. As a freshman in 2024, Williams led Alabama with 865 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.
“This week will be a little trickier with him getting limited opportunities,” Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said Monday. “But that’s going to allow someone else to step up and kind of continue to figure out the dynamics of how we feel with our receiving core and the people that should be out there.”
Wide receiver Isaiah Horton, who left against the Seminoles with a lower body injury but returned, is expected to play against Louisiana-Monroe.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Bill Connelly
I always say that the worse a week looks on paper, the wilder it ends up becoming. If that’s true, brace yourself for just about the wildest week of all time. After a Week 1 that had three top-10 headline games and Bill Belichick’s not-so-hot debut, the biggest game of Week 2 is a Jordan Brand matchup between the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines and No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners. Nine AP top-10 teams are in action, but my SP+ ratings project them as favorites by a combined 360.3 points. Illinois-Duke might be the biggest game in Saturday’s noon ET window.
It’s an odd schedule, in other words. But in these parts, we love alternative programming. Michigan-OU will give us the Wolverines’ Bryce Underwood facing the most hostile environment of his young career. The Iowa-Iowa State winner will be a legit College Football Playoff contender. The same goes for the Kansas-Mizzou winner. (That’s right, the Border War — er, Border Showdown — is back!!) And after Boise State’s Week 1 defeat to USF, the wide-open battle for the Group of 5’s guaranteed CFP spot features a number of huge résumé-building opportunities in Week 2.
There’s probably no need to watch what the top teams are up to this week (though the Grambling-Ohio State halftime show should be amazing). But we’re going to entertain ourselves all the same. Here’s everything you need to know about Week 2.
All times Eastern.
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Michigan-Oklahoma | Big Ten challenges
KU-Mizzou is back | G5’s big week | Week 2 playlist
Two big brands trying to look the part
No. 15 Michigan Wolverines at No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners (7:30 p.m., ABC)
It’s like a blind spot in college football’s lore: Michigan and Oklahoma rank first (1,013) and tied for fifth (951), respectively, in college football wins, but they’ve played each other only once. Nearly 50 years ago, in the 1976 Orange Bowl — the first time a Big Ten team was allowed to play in a bowl other than the Rose — Oklahoma won a 14-6 slog that, when paired with Ohio State’s loss in the Rose Bowl, earned the Sooners their fifth of seven national titles. Otherwise, these two iconic helmets have never crossed paths.
After down seasons in 2024, both programs expect improvement this fall. They should have excellent defenses again, but on offense Michigan signed all-world freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood and a new coordinator (Chip Lindsey) while Oklahoma went with a full-on transplant, taking Washington State’s OC (Ben Arbuckle) and QB (John Mateer) and nearly a full lineup’s worth of transfers. Everyone looked as good as expected in easy Week 1 wins, but now the rubber meets the road.
Owen Field vs. a true freshman
The first time I attended an Oklahoma game in Norman, the home crowd forced a fumble. With OU nursing a narrow fourth-quarter lead over Missouri in 2007, Sooners fans made such shrill noise that (A) I had to grab on to the seatback in front of me because my equilibrium was failing, and (B) Mizzou’s Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin miscommunicated and botched an exchange, which Curtis Lofton recovered and took for a touchdown. What they call Sooner Magic might simply be eardrum-bursting shrillness. Regardless, it’s probably going to test Underwood quite a bit.
Underwood was perfectly solid for a true freshman starting in his first collegiate game. New Mexico did its best to confuse him, but he went 21-for-31 for 251 yards. He got help from an effective run game that produced a couple of 50-yard bursts from Justice Haynes and no negative plays.
There was one red flag, though: UNM pressured him seven times, and in those plays he took two sacks, completed just two passes and averaged 2.0 yards per dropback. OU is probably going to pressure him more than seven times. The Sooners ranked 13th nationally in sack rate last year and boast a bevy of pass rushers led by R Mason Thomas. The Sooners also ranked second in rushing success rate allowed, meaning there’s no guarantee that Underwood can lean on Haynes.
Underwood is “no average freshman,” but it’s common for even an awesome blue-chipper to flunk an early road test. Still, if he can avoid devastating mistakes in a deafening environment and the Michigan defense plays its part, the Wolverines could have a chance.
Big plays and rushing quarterbacks
If Week 1 was any indication, a repeat of the 14-6 scoreline from the first Michigan-Oklahoma game is conceivable. The biggest story of Week 1 to me was the complete disappearance of points. The use of safe, two-high coverage (with two high safeties patrolling and attempting to limit big plays) has increased. Combined with the fact that defenses have adapted well to tempo offenses through the years, this led to long, frequently scoreless drives and low point totals in Week 1. It’s as if the entire college football universe suddenly turned into Iowa.
How do you punish teams for two-high looks and force them to get aggressive? With ruthless efficiency. For the SEC in Week 1, that frequently meant running the QB. Auburn’s Jackson Arnold rushed for 151 non-sack yards against Baylor, while Georgia’s Gunner Stockton and Missouri’s Beau Pribula topped 70 yards and seven others topped 30.
Mateer didn’t need to run much against Illinois State. He completed seven passes of 20-plus yards against the Redbirds (the Sooners averaged just 1.5 such completions per game in 2024). Still, considering he had games of 212 and 127 non-sack rushing yards at Wazzu in 2024, plus six more games over 70 yards, we know he’ll probably run a lot when it matters.
Michigan used two-high coverage 38% of the time in Week 1 — 19th most in the FBS — so I’m guessing Mateer’s legs will be frequently involved Saturday evening even though star running back transfer Jaydn Ott should be ready for a heavier load. A threat from Mateer will put pressure on Michigan’s linebackers, which could make the first-half absence of Jaishawn Barham a concern. Of course, Michigan’s defensive front, led by veteran Rayshaun Benny and transfers Tré Williams and Damon Payne, will test OU’s rebuilt offensive line in ways that ISU couldn’t.
Last week didn’t give us definitive answers to the offseason questions we had about the Wolverines or the Sooners. But one of them will be 2-0 and feeling awfully good about themselves Sunday morning.
Current line: OU -5.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 5.7 | FPI projection: OU by 0.9
Big tests for Big Ten hopefuls
Even without the ridiculous “multiple auto-bids in a college football invitational” idea, the Big Ten stands to get plenty of teams into a 12- or 16-team CFP moving forward. Anyone who can get to 10 wins or so is going to have a good shot.
Per SP+, Illinois has a 29% chance of reaching 10-2 or better, and if Bret Bielema’s Illini survive what amounts to a coin-toss game at Duke on Saturday, those odds will see a pretty solid boost. Iowa is at only 4%, but if the Hawkeyes beat their Cy-Hawk rivals — something they’ve done six straight times in Ames — their outlook will be rosier. Noon is Big Ten Time, and Saturday features a pair of awfully important noon contests.
Few teams have proved more through two games than Iowa State. The Cyclones outlasted Kansas State in a massively important Week 0 contest in Ireland, then returned home and mauled both jet lag and a solid South Dakota team last Saturday. They’re tackling well, defending the run effectively and forcing loads of turnovers. Basically, they’re doing the things Iowa typically does to win lots of games.
Iowa wasn’t tested much against Albany in Week 1; the Hawkeyes ran the ball at will — Terrell Washington Jr., Xavier Williams and Jaziun Patterson had 33 combined carries for 238 yards — and they neither asked for nor got much from new quarterback Mark Gronowski. The defense gave up a single, 68-yard touchdown drive in the second quarter but otherwise allowed 2.9 yards per play.
A two-time FCS national champion at South Dakota State, Gronowski disclosed that he had some “anxiety and anxiousness” in his first FBS start, and he suffered some misfires while going 8-for-15 for just 44 yards. (He had 47 non-sack rushing yards, too, which was something.) He’ll have to get over that pretty quickly in Ames. And against ISU quarterback Rocco Becht, who was ever-so-slightly better Saturday (19-for-20 for 278 yards and three TDs), the Iowa defense will have to prove that it remains plug-and-play — Becht & Co. will test the Hawkeyes’ five new starters in the back seven.
Enough Big 12 teams looked awesome in Week 1 that the conference doesn’t have to think about settling for being a one-bid league just yet. Still, with a loss Saturday, ISU could focus on reaching the CFP with a conference title. Iowa probably won’t have that luxury; this one is therefore a bit more important for the road team. But considering the Hawkeyes’ recent record in Ames, that probably doesn’t scare them all that much.
Current line: ISU -3.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 6.5 | FPI projection: ISU by 3.8
Since the start of 2024, 24 power-conference teams have won double-digit games. Illinois and Duke are among them. Granted, they’re a combined 11-2 in one-score finishes in that span, and that will likely be hard to maintain, but both entered 2025 feeling spry and ambitious, and both crafted easy Week 1 wins.
Well, it was eventually easy for Duke. The Blue Devils found themselves tied with Elon at halftime, thanks in part to a missed field goal and a fumble, before winning the second half by 28. Expensive new quarterback Darian Mensah had to stay in a bit longer than intended and took a pair of sacks, but he finished 27-for-34 for 389 yards and three TDs.
Coach Manny Diaz’s intentions were clear this offseason. The Blue Devils won nine games despite an inefficient, three-and-outs-heavy offense last season, so he spent big to land one of the best QBs in the portal. Play Diaz defense and get high-level QB play and you’re going to be awfully good.
Illinois has provided some proof of concept in that regard. Granted, the Illini defense is far more bend-don’t-break than Diaz’s aggressive units, and Luke Altmyer isn’t exactly a Heisman contender. But he has the best QBR of any Illinois quarterback for the past 20 years (min. 14 starts), and the Illini return about seven starters from a unit that ranked 26th in defensive SP+.
Everything played out as intended in a 45-3 win over Western Illinois. Altmyer went 17-for-21 (albeit with three sacks), while running backs Kaden Feagin, Aidan Laughery and Ca’Lil Valentine combined for 226 rushing yards and the defense allowed 3.0 yards per play. The sacks might be red flags for both QBs, but we’ll learn a lot about two intriguing teams in Durham. And one might actually lose a close game for once.
Current line: Illini -2.5 | SP+ projection: Illini by 2.9 | FPI projection: Duke by 0.1
3:25
Mizzou’s Eliah Drinkwitz reviews Week 1, looks to matchup vs. Kansas
Drinkwitz expresses the Tigers’ need to improve each week, reviews what they can change from last week and how they can put themselves in a position to win against the Jayhawks.
A mighty big Border Showdown
It has featured weird ties, rushing records and probably a few too many Civil War references, if we’re being honest, but the Border Showdown is back for a couple of years! Hell, yes. And whether Mizzou and Kansas players are prepared or not — almost none of them really grew up with this rivalry, after all — they’re going to be playing in a lion’s den Saturday afternoon. “I had no idea about the whole Civil War history,” Missouri QB Beau Pribula told the media this week. “I thought it was just a sports rivalry, but I guess it goes beyond that.” Indeed.
Emotions aside, this is a massive game for two programs that have looked the part of late. Mizzou rocked Central Arkansas by 55 points last Thursday, and Kansas has beaten Fresno State and Wagner by a combined 77-14. Mizzou is 22-5 since the start of 2023 — only Oregon, Ohio State, Georgia and Michigan can top that 81.5% win rate — and although close losses dragged KU down to 5-7 last year, the Jayhawks have still enjoyed a spectacular program turnaround under Lance Leipold. They’ve been good enough early on to think of themselves as Big 12 contenders. (Then again, who isn’t a Big 12 contender?)
Pribula, a Penn State transfer, lit Mizzou fans’ imaginations up with a brilliant debut, completing 23 of 28 passes for 283 yards and two scores while rushing for five first downs and ripping off a 31-yard touchdown run. The Tigers’ offensive line was probably their biggest question mark heading into the season, and it looked fine aside from one confusingly awful second-quarter drive. The unit had better have those glitches ironed out because the Kansas defense has been attacking with far more vigor under new coordinator D.K. McDonald. It has already recorded 19 tackles for loss, 6 sacks and 8 passes defended.
Strangely, it seems as if the Jayhawks’ defense is ahead of their offense at the moment. Quarterback Jalon Daniels & Co. have been efficient enough, but situational play has been horrendous: Kansas is 101st in third-down conversion rate (30.0%), and that includes a trio of third-and-1 conversions; on third-and-3 or more, it’s a ghastly 3-for-17 (17.6%). The Jayhawks are also 78th in red zone TD rate (8-for-13) and 103rd in goal-to-go TD rate (1-for-4). These numbers are so bad that they’re almost guaranteed to improve. But Mizzou is 11th in defensive SP+ and held UCA to 2 or fewer yards on 30 of 62 snaps last week. This might not be the best week to expect third-down improvement.
Mizzou did get bitten by the injury bug last Thursday: Quarterback Sam Horn, supposedly still in a battle with Pribula at kickoff, suffered an injury on his first snap and will miss at least a few weeks, and big-legged kicker Blake Craig is now out for the season. The Tigers won a lot of close games over the past couple of years, and long field goals were a huge part of that. The bar is pretty high for freshman kicker Robert Meyer.
Current line: Mizzou -6.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 5.7 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 3.4
Résumé Week in the Group of 5
Heading into 2025, it seemed like a “Boise State vs. the Field” situation when it came to landing the guaranteed Group of 5 CFP spot. Well, the Field swatted that down pretty quickly. USF’s stunning 34-7 win over BSU in Week 1 opened the CFP race wide. BSU’s hopes aren’t kaput, but the Broncos are now part of the second tier of contenders.
The Allstate Playoff Predictor lists 11 G5 teams with at least a 2.0% chance of reaching the CFP: Tulane (31.2%), Memphis (16.3%), USF (14.3%), UNLV (13.5%), Boise State (3.8%), Texas State (3.3%), Fresno State (3.1%), Navy (3.0%), JMU (2.6%), Ohio (2.3%) and UTSA (2.0%). At least six of these teams have particularly interesting matchups in Week 2, games that could alter these odds a solid amount. Here they are in chronological order:
JMU is the betting favorite in the Sun Belt and has a prime upset opportunity Friday night. Both teams handled FCS opponents with aplomb in Week 1. New Louisville quarterback Miller Moss looked good, and Isaac Brown needed only six carries to gain 126 yards in a 51-17 win over Eastern Kentucky. JMU, meanwhile, outgained Weber State by 300 yards and outscored the Wildcats by 35. Is Louisville simply too explosive for the Dukes to handle, or might JMU make this game awfully tricky for Moss & Co.?
Current line: Louisville -14.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 11.4 | FPI projection: Louisville by 8.4
This year’s Battle of I-35 is a huge head-to-head matchup of G5 hopefuls in the Alamo Dome, and it might honestly be one of my favorite matchups of Week 2. UTSA was explosive and exciting against Texas A&M, trailing by only four in the third quarter before stumbling late. Texas State, meanwhile, walloped Eastern Michigan 52-27. Despite massive turnover, the Bobcats look dangerous once again, and they finally beat UTSA as an FBS rival last year. Major track meet potential here.
Current line: UTSA -4.5 | SP+ projection: UTSA by 3.8 | FPI projection: UTSA by 1.7
USF has the third-best odds of any G5 team to reach the CFP, and that’s with a likely loss in Gainesville this weekend. If the Bulls can pull an upset here or even give the playoff committee something to think about with a super-competitive loss, that will be quite the bonus. Is that actually likely? We’ll see. USF’s offense was all-or-nothing against Boise State, and the Bulls started quite slowly overall and benefited from some turnovers luck. Still, they’re super explosive, and they now face a Florida team that wasn’t all that explosive itself against Long Island last week.
Current line: Florida -17.5 | SP+ projection: by 20.3 | FPI projection: Florida by 10.8
Tulane is your new G5 leader, thanks both to Boise State’s loss and to the Green Wave’s utterly dominant 23-3 win over Northwestern. They’ll face a unique test in Mobile. Can they avoid a letdown after such a stirring showing? And how will they perform against a team that — sorry, Northwestern fans — might actually be able to pass? USA’s Bishop Davenport was 12-of-14 with three completions of 30-plus yards against Morgan State last week, and though I doubt the Jaguars’ defense can handle Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff & Co., the offense might score enough to make this uncomfortable.
Current line: Tulane -10.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 10.7 | FPI projection: Tulane by 9.6
UNLV has suffered serious defensive issues thus far, giving up a combined 52 points and 887 yards to Idaho State and Sam Houston. So why are the Rebels fourth on the G5 playoff odds list? Because of an offense that has scored 76 points and gained 936 yards. That raw potential might be problematic for a UCLA team that got utterly swamped by Utah on both offense and defense last week. The Bruins could rebound, but I have no idea what they’ve done to earn being favored in this game.
Current line: UCLA -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 2.6 | FPI projection: UNLV by 6.4
Week 2 chaos superfecta
We have another one! We’re once again using this space to attempt to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. We scored upsets in 10 of 14 weeks last season, and thanks to Florida State’s upset of Bama, we’re 1-for-1 in 2025.
Who are we taking down this week? Someone good! SP+ says there’s only about a 51% chance that No. 13 Florida (90% over USF), No. 8 Clemson (89% over Troy), No. 20 Ole Miss (84% over Kentucky) and Louisville (76% over JMU) all win. Surely Ole Miss wouldn’t lose to Kentucky again, right?
Week 2 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend from information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Northern Illinois Huskies at Maryland Terrapins (7:30, BTN). Freshman quarterback Malik Washington grew beautifully into his first start last week, and he’s at least 17 places ahead of Drew Allar, Garrett Nussmeier and Cade Klubnik in QBR. But can he overcome the Curse of Playing Northern Illinois in Week 2? Notre Dame couldn’t last year, after all.
Current line: Terps -18.5 | SP+ projection: Terps by 16.0 | FPI projection: Terps by 13.0
Early Saturday
Baylor Bears at No. 17 SMU Mustangs (noon, The CW). Against Auburn, Baylor proved it has some major speed this season. But the Bears got pushed around early and made too many mistakes. SMU, meanwhile, took a while to find an offensive rhythm against East Texas A&M and fell well short of projections. Which team will head into Week 3 having disappointed twice in a row?
Current line: SMU -3 | SP+ projection: SMU by 9.9 | FPI projection: SMU by 4.5
Virginia Cavaliers at NC State Wolfpack (noon, ESPN2). NC State’s CJ Bailey looked awfully good in the Wolfpack’s 24-17 win over forever-upset-minded ECU, but the UVA defense absolutely wrecked shop against Coastal Carolina. Are the Cavaliers better than we thought? Can State fend off an early upset attempt?
Current line: Pack -2.5 | SP+ projection: Pack by 2.0 | FPI projection: UVA by 0.4
UConn Huskies at Syracuse Orange (noon, ESPN+). Syracuse alternated between wobbly and exciting in last week’s loss to Tennessee, but the Orange will need to get their feet underneath them quickly because UConn made loads of big plays last week — yes, against Central Connecticut, but still — and is good enough to make this one a near-tossup.
Current line: Cuse -6.5 | SP+ projection: Cuse by 1.8 | FPI projection: Cuse by 4.3
Saturday afternoon
No. 20 Ole Miss Rebels at Kentucky Wildcats (3:30, ABC). New Ole Miss starter Austin Simmons threw two early picks against Georgia State last week but eventually got rolling. He’ll likely find far more resistance against a Kentucky defense that held Toledo to 4.8 yards per play, but that will matter only if the Wildcats can score. They averaged a woeful 4.6 yards per play with two turnovers, and I’m pretty sure Ole Miss’ defense is better than Toledo’s.
Current line: Rebels -10.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 16.1 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 11.5
Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 6 Oregon Ducks (3:30, CBS). Oklahoma State QB Hauss Hejny looked awesome in his first start but got hurt. Now Zane Flores will make his first start on the road against a team that looked about as good as anyone last week. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore was accurate against Montana State, a committee of Ducks running backs romped, and the team’s defense erased what will likely be one of the FCS’ best offenses. I’m not sure what resistance OSU can come up with here.
Current line: Ducks -28.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 21.8 | FPI projection: Ducks by 20.8
Troy Trojans at No. 8 Clemson Tigers (3:30, ACCN). An interesting stats-versus-sportsbooks contrast here. ESPN BET says Clemson will beat Troy by nearly five touchdowns, but neither SP+ nor FPI trust the Tigers that much. Of course, Troy needed a late charge to beat Nicholls State last week, so maybe the numbers should stand down a bit.
Current line: Clemson -33.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 19.5 | FPI projection: Clemson by 19.4
West Virginia Mountaineers at Ohio Bobcats (4, ESPNU). Ohio racked up 440 yards at 7.1 yards per play against a Rutgers defense that we expected to be better than West Virginia’s. West Virginia, meanwhile, started slowly against Robert Morris but caught fire and finished with 625 yards. Points have been hard to come by overall this season, but this one has some track meet potential.
Current line: WVU -2.5 | SP+ projection: WVU by 6.9 | FPI projection: WVU by 0.9
Saturday evening
Grambling’s World Famed Tiger Marching Band vs. Ohio State’s Best Damn Band in the Land (approximately 5, BTN). This has to be one of the first times a football game was scheduled to set up a halftime show. But make no mistake: The halftime show, pitting two of probably the five or 10 best marching bands in the country, will be unreal. This might be the single coolest 20 minutes of the Saturday slate.
SP+ projection: WFTMB -2 (just kidding)
Vanderbilt Commodores at Virginia Tech Hokies (7:30, ACCN). Virginia Tech’s defense showed up in Atlanta against South Carolina last week. The offense, not so much. Kyron Drones was 15-of-35 with two INTs and two sacks, and his receiving corps was plagued by drops. Vandy’s defense erased Charleston Southern, but this is obviously the Commodores’ real test.
Current line: Tech -1.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 3.8 | FPI projection: VT by 3.3
No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils at Mississippi State Bulldogs (7:30, ESPN2). MSU was sloppy early against Southern Miss last week, and Arizona State woke up only marginally against Northern Arizona. Both won, obviously, but now we get to find out how each will really start the season. Is ASU’s Sam Leavitt really going to throw only to Jordyn Tyson again (12 catches, 141 yards last week)? Can MSU run well enough to keep pressure off of Blake Shapen?
Current line: ASU -6.5 | SP+ projection: ASU by 9.7 | FPI projection: ASU by 1.0
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Toledo Rockets (7, ESPN+). I almost included this one in the G5 Résumés section above. Points might be at a premium this season, but WKU has scored 96 of them in two easy wins while Toledo’s defense looked the part, at least, against Kentucky. The winner of this one will be in the G5’s CFP hunt — especially if it’s unbeaten WKU.
Current line: Toledo -6.5 | SP+ projection: WKU by 2.3 | FPI projection: Toledo by 3.4
Houston Cougars at Rice Owls (7, ESPN+). What would a column of mine be without a reference to Scott Abell’s option offense? Granted, defense played a huge part in Rice’s first-week upset of Louisiana, but now the Owls get a shot at a power-conference rival, a Houston team that shut Stephen F. Austin down last week but never really got rolling offensively. Rice can’t start 2-0, can it?
Current line: Houston -12.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 13.9 | FPI projection: Houston by 4.9
Army Black Knights at Kansas State Wildcats (7, ESPN). One of these teams could be in crisis Sunday morning. Both came into 2025 with major expectations, but Army suffered a season-opening upset loss to Tarleton State, and Kansas State came within about a minute of falling to 0-2 last weekend before rallying to beat North Dakota. Stumbles happen, and it’s early, but the loser of this one will be in a hole.
Current line: K-State -17.5 | SP+ projection: K-State by 12.3 | FPI projection: K-State by 19.2
Boston College Eagles at Michigan State Spartans (7:30, NBC). Boston College overachieved against SP+ projections by a couple of touchdowns in a 66-10 win over Fordham, while Michigan State underachieved slightly in a 23-6 win over Western Michigan. Both teams could have salty defenses, and both teams have either inexperienced (BC’s Dylan Lonergan) or sack-prone QBs (MSU’s Aidan Chiles). MSU is favored at home, but this seems like a huge statement opportunity for BC.
Current line: MSU -3.5 | SP+ projection: BC by 1.5 | FPI projection: BC by 0.6
UL Monroe Warhawks at No. 21 Alabama Crimson Tide (7:45, SECN). I’m just saying, you always need to check in on ULM-Bama. Just in case.
Current line: Bama -36.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 31.6 | FPI projection: Bama by 26.6
Late Saturday
Stanford Cardinal at BYU Cougars (10:15, ESPN). Portland State is clearly not good, but BYU outgained the Vikings 606-51. Six-hundred-six to 51. Stanford, meanwhile, lost to Hawai’i in Week 0. I’m honestly not sure how this line is under three touchdowns.
Current line: BYU -18.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 24.6 | FPI projection: BYU by 16.0
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
D-III: No. 17 Wheaton at No. 2 Mount Union (1 p.m., FloFootball). Now the party’s complete. The Division III season kicks off Saturday, and Mount Union, a 12-time national champion battling a seven-year title drought, gets going against some high-level competition. Wheaton missed the playoffs for the first time since 2018 last season, but the Thunder still went 9-2 and are projected ninth in D-III SP+ to start the season. Can Geoff Dart’s Purple Raiders handle their business at home as we’ve come to expect?
SP+ projection: Mount Union by 8.1
NAIA: No. 4 Benedictine at No. 1 Grand View (1 p.m., local streaming). I told you to watch Benedictine’s top-five showdown with Morningside last week, and the Ravens won in a thriller. How are they following that up? With another top-five showdown! We’re going to watch this one too! Grand View won its second national title last fall and starts this season atop the polls. Will the Vikings stay there after Saturday?
SP+ projection: Grand View by 9.9
FCS: No. 2 South Dakota State at No. 3 Montana State (8 p.m., ESPN+). After handily disposing of Sacramento State 20-3 to start the season, second-ranked South Dakota State heads west to face a Montana State team that was treated very unkindly last weekend by Oregon. Will the Bobcats, national runners-up twice in the past four seasons, bounce back and give the Jackrabbits a fight?
SP+ projection: SDSU by 1.6
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