In case you hadn’t heard, Aaron Judge entered the 2025 MLB playoffs with a checkered history of October results compared with his stellar regular-season résumé.

For his career, Judge’s OPS is 250 points lower in the postseason than in the regular season (the average regular-season-to-playoff OPS dropoff for hitters in 2024 was 18 points), and his struggles on the biggest stage have become a talking point nearly every October.

After his .184/.344/.408 slash line during the Yankees’ 2024 postseason run, Judge is hitting objectively well in the playoffs this year — posting a 1.024 OPS and collecting an MLB-leading eight hits in his first five games. But he isn’t hitting for much power, with just one extra-base hit (a double) in 21 plate appearances, and his team enters Game 3 of the American League Division Series on the brink of elimination.

As the Yankees try to battle back against the Toronto Blue Jays, we dug deep into each of Judge’s first 18 at-bats (and three walks) to see what we can learn about his October so far.

How is Judge being pitched in the playoffs? Is it different from the regular season? Why isn’t he hitting for power? Is it bad luck? And where could his postseason go from here — if the Yankees can stick around long enough for him to find his home run stroke?

How left-handed pitchers are approaching Judge

Judge vs. lefties in playoff career: 42 PA, .400/.500/.714, 19% K, 17% BB, 3 HR
Judge vs. lefties this postseason: 8 PA, .500/.500/1.125, 13% K, 0% BB, 0 HR

Each pitcher has different strengths, but there are some clear trends that lefties are following when attacking Judge this month.

The game plan goes something like this: throw hard stuff (four-seam fastballs, sinkers, cutters) on his hands, largely down, then mix in softer stuff to keep him honest, locating those pitches down and on the corners — where he is least likely to do damage. If you miss, miss outside of the zone, not toward the middle. Don’t be afraid to nibble around the outside of the zone and live to fight another day.

That’s a solid plan against almost any hitter, but in this case, it means going hard inside against a 6-foot-7 slugger whose relative weaknesses will always include covering the plate against good stuff.

It’s telling that the two softer-throwing lefties Judge faced (Boston’s Connelly Early and Toronto’s Justin Bruihl) threw two fastballs out of their 10 total pitches and both missed off the plate inside, one missing so far inside that it hit Judge. Garrett Crochet, Aroldis Chapman, and Brendon Little were much more aggressive, likely because of their better fastballs.

How right-handed pitchers are approaching Judge

Judge vs. righties in playoff career: 241 PA, .192/.304/.409, 34% K, 13% BB, 13 HR
Judge vs. righties this postseason: 13 PA, .400/.538/.400, 23% K, 15% BB, 0 HR

Judge has faced eight different righties this postseason, and those pitchers vary vastly in their pitch mix and the quality of their stuff, but right-handed pitchers seem to be using a decision tree to craft their game plan against him.

If the righty’s top offspeed pitch is a breaking ball (slider, sweeper, curve) then he is throwing that as often as he can while locating it down and away — and mixing it with fastballs inside to keep Judge from leaning over the plate. Here’s a look at Judge vs. breaking balls only.

If the righty’s top secondary pitch is a splitter — such as Toronto’s Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage in the first two games of the ALDS — then he is mixing splitters and sliders away with some fastballs that are mostly targeted inside.

But no matter their style, one common goal for all of these pitchers is not to make a mistake over the plate!

How does Judge’s regular-season history factor into this plan?

Though Judge’s October struggles have become a narrative over his career, any team setting up its pitching strategy for a series will game plan for the two-time American League MVP with a career 1.028 OPS and 368 home runs rather than treating him like the player with a .223 average and .787 OPS in 63 career playoff games.

And that starts with keeping the ball away from where Judge can do the most damage.

During the 2025 regular season, Judge faced 176 pitches (essentially one pitch every four plate appearances) that qualified as in the middle-middle zone — or, in more general speak, right down the middle.

Against those pitches, Judge had a 1.630 OPS and 15 homers, both figures were second best in baseball.

This is where Judge ranked, among all qualified hitters in MLB this season, measured by xwOBA:

• Second best vs. middle-middle pitches

• Best vs. pitches in the heart of the zone (a larger part of the strike zone than middle-middle)

• Best per pitch vs. fastballs, second in overall value

• Best per pitch and overall vs. sinkers

• Best per pitch and overall vs. cutters

Imagine getting this scouting report as a pitcher before you face Judge in a playoff game. I wouldn’t throw him anything down the middle, either.

How Judge is handling pitches he should crush

Now for the twist: Judge has faced seven pitches in the playoffs that were in the middle-middle zone (one pitch every three plate appearances, so slightly more frequently than the regular season).

So far this postseason, Judge hasn’t put one of those pitches in play. He swung at five — fouled off four and whiffed at another — and took two middle-middle pitches for strikes.

This isn’t a trend I tried to identify in my research because the small sample means one home run on a center-cut ball would poke a hole in it, but in watching all of his playoff at-bats, I made too many of this sort of note: “target was [zone direction] corner, missed target to the middle of the zone, [nothing bad happened to the pitcher].”

So, yes, it’s a small sample, but October baseball is won and lost on small samples. Judge is getting pitched roughly how he was in the regular season (actually even a bit more hitter-friendly), but he hasn’t replicated his regular-season damage, especially when it comes to punishing mistakes thrown down the middle. Judge has performed basically the same (chase rate, xwOBA, etc.) as the regular season against noncenter-cut pitches, so not taking advantage of these mistakes is accounting for his dip in power in the playoffs this year.

Over 162 games, anyone putting up an OPS over 1.000 is having a very productive season — even if it’s all coming from singles and a few doubles — but the heat has been turned up with the Yankees facing elimination, and the offense needs to deliver, with Judge at the heart of it. This team needs Judge to punish mistakes and create some souvenirs or he is at risk of having another October disappointment added to his résumé.

ARCH MANNING HAS been taunted and has clapped back. The Texas quarterback has been booed by road and home fans alike, and has also brought snippets of joy to those wearing Burnt Orange, but not enough for his or their liking.

Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian has noted the “out of control” expectations placed upon the third-year player, and last month responded to a question about Manning grimacing after a throw by speculating about the bathroom faces of reporters. The whole Arch thing has been intense, exhausting and, at times, weird.

And we’re only five games into this season.

“He throws a bad pass, he’s the worst quarterback in the world, he throws a good pass, he’s gonna win the Heisman,” an SEC coordinator said. “Like, goodness gracious, just let the kid play for a little bit.”

The first chunk of game action has provided a legitimate sample size to truly evaluate Manning, which really didn’t exist before. He only made two starts in 2024, against a Group of 5 opponent (UTSA) and an SEC bottom-feeder (Mississippi State), and saw little time as a change-of-pace quarterback behind Quinn Ewers during Texas’ run to the conference title game and the College Football Playoff semifinal. While coaches set to face Manning this fall acknowledged his talent and potential, they qualified their assessments by noting his lack of meaningful playing time.

Now, there’s something to truly judge. Through five games, Manning has completed 60% of his passes for 1,158 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions, while adding a team-high 160 rushing yards and five touchdowns for a ground game that ranks 55th nationally in rushing. He has had tough games, namely the opener at Ohio State, where Texas did not score until the final minutes, and an 11-of-25 passing performance against a UTEP team that now sits at 1-4. Manning showcased a mix of promise and frustrating moments in Saturday’s 29-21 loss at Florida, finishing with 263 yards on 55.2% completions with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He also led Texas with 37 rushing yards.

The general view of Manning, both within and outside the program, is that his outlook remains promising despite some clear bumps, which are common for new starting quarterbacks. “Just going through it man,” a Texas source said of Manning, echoing how many are viewing his first month-plus as QB1 for the Longhorns. While he hasn’t met the elevated expectations placed on him, coaches still think he has all the ingredients to shine in the long run.

“When you’re the quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys or the University of Texas, you’re one of the most scrutinized people in the world,” said a coach who faced Texas this season. “I just truly believe that that kid is going to be fine, if mentally he can weather the storm of the media and all these things.

“He’s a [five-game] starter and getting his wings under him.”

There are also other factors involved, including a supporting cast on offense that has dealt with injuries and underachievement. Manning undoubtedly needs some refinement, too, especially in areas like footwork, and will be tested again this week as Texas faces rival Oklahoma in the Allstate Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl. Oklahoma coach Brent Venables has made a career out of tormenting inexperienced quarterbacks, and he will get his first crack at Manning, who didn’t face the Sooners this past season.

“For Arch, it’s continue to be him,” Sarkisian said last week. “That’s one of the things that we’ve been harping on here. As much as the attention swirls around him, he doesn’t have to play to that attention, whether it’s positive, negative, whatever it may be. Focus on his teammates, focus on what he needs to do to prepare, focus on having fun, playing football.

“That’s when he’s at his best.”

DAVID MORRIS HAS known Arch Manning his entire life and has trained him since the fifth grade. Morris backed up Manning’s uncle, Eli, at Ole Miss, and is best friends with Eli and close to the family.

He also has a global view of the quarterback position as the founder of QB Country, a quarterback training and development program.

“The first season, and particularly the first half of the first season, when you’re a starter, there’s a natural progression, it just takes a little time to get to playing your best football,” Morris said, adding of Arch Manning, “He’s on the right track, and I’m excited for him.”

Morris noted how even Eli Manning had a bumpy start to his career as an NFL starter. Although some first-year starters immediately excel, an adjustment period almost always follows before they grasp the demands of playing quarterback at a high level.

Trevor Lawrence helped Clemson to a national title after taking over the starting job midway through the year in 2018, but he began his first full season as QB1 by throwing five interceptions in the first three games of the 2019 season.

Manning’s first start of the season, at an Ohio State team with a new-look defensive front, under the direction of new coordinator Matt Patricia, was far from perfect. He was 0-for-5 with an interception on passes of longer than 5 yards during the first three quarters before a nice surge in the fourth. He finished with an off-target percentage of 37%, the worst by a Texas quarterback during the past decade, per ESPN Research.

But Ohio State has turned out to be dominant defensively throughout the first portion of the season, leading the FBS in the fewest points allowed (5 points per game).

“You couldn’t have a much more challenging game than the Ohio State on the road opener for a first-time starter,” Florida coach Billy Napier said before facing Texas.

Manning’s other road start came against Napier’s defense that, despite the team’s 2-3 record, is allowing just 17 PPG.

“People expect these miracle things from these [first-year starting] quarterbacks,” said an opposing defensive coordinator. “Very few can do that. He doesn’t have game experience yet. He looks like a tough kid.”

Sarkisian on Monday said Manning “fought his ass off” in the Florida game.

Arch Manning benefits from having been around the quarterback position since birth. He has direct access to his uncles, Eli and Peyton, and grandfather, Archie, who all played quarterback on the biggest stages. He also can lean on Morris and the in-season coaching from Sarkisian and AJ Milwee, who has coached Texas’ quarterbacks since 2021.

Morris lists several qualities that jump out about Arch Manning, describing him as “a whole athlete” who “historically, can make a lot happen in small spaces.” Manning has good instincts, both within the pocket and in extending it. Coaches highlighted Manning’s athleticism this past season, and those who have faced him or scouted him this fall point out how effective he is on the move, even when his passing has fluctuated.

At 6-foot-4 and 219 pounds, Manning has had at least one run of 14 yards or longer in four of five contests.

“Hard as hell to tackle,” an opposing coach said. “They will have a chance to win a lot of games because if he ain’t beating you with his arm, Sark does a great job with the zone-read and the designed quarterback runs. His feet and his size give him all the ability in the world, so he can beat you in a number of ways.”

MANNING HAS BEEN under the brightest spotlight from the moment Texas lost in the CFP semifinal. That’s what happens with highly anticipated new starting quarterbacks, especially one named Manning.

But has there been enough attention paid to who is surrounding him? Texas had two offensive players selected in the first round of April’s NFL draft, left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. (No. 9) and wide receiver Matthew Golden (No. 23), who led the team with 987 receiving yards and nine touchdowns this past season. The Longhorns also lost Gunnar Helm, a fourth-round draft pick and one of the nation’s most productive tight ends with a team-high 60 catches for 786 yards and seven scores. Texas said goodbye to No. 2 wide receiver Isaiah Bond and Jaydon Blue, the team’s second-leading rusher, who went in the fifth round.

One of the nation’s best offensive lines saw three players drafted and another land a free agent deal, with right guard DJ Campbell as the lone returning starter. The new-look line has had clear struggles, especially in Saturday’s loss at Florida, which sacked Manning six times and hurried him 10 times. Texas’ offensive line pressure rate is 40.9%, the worst in the SEC and 124th in the FBS. Last year, the Longhorns’ line ranked 15th in the FBS at 27%.

Texas seemingly made a spring portal splash by adding Cal tight end transfer Jack Endries, who led the Bears with 623 receiving yards on 56 receptions in 2024. But Endries has only nine receptions for 108 yards and two touchdowns through five games at Texas.

“I was expecting more,” said a coach who scouted Texas. “People are looking at Texas, like: ‘Where did they put their money?’ They’re a good team, but it wasn’t like, ‘Oh my gosh,’ like some of the better Ohio State teams.”

A defensive coordinator who faced Texas noted that sophomore wide receiver Ryan Wingo is “kind of freakish.”

“They’ve got some good guys around [Manning], good tight ends, but they haven’t really seemed to really click on all cylinders,” the coach said.

Although Texas brought back leading rusher Quintrevion Wisner, he sustained a hamstring injury in the opener at Ohio State and had only 11 yards on eight carries in the Florida loss. CJ Baxter, who missed all this past season with a knee injury, was hurt on Sept. 13 during the first play against UTEP and has not returned.

“It’s kind of like running back by committee with them right now. The receivers are just OK,” an opposing coach said. “That, to me, is the bigger story. I don’t think the pieces around him are elite.”

“The biggest difference is the surrounding cast,” Napier said of Texas before their game. “Not only is [Manning] a new starter, but there’s a lot of players on that side of the ball who are playing in that system for the first time.”

The sense within the program is that Manning will be more fairly judged once the team gets healthier at both running back and wide receiver. Stanford transfer Emmett Mosley V, who had 525 receiving yards and six touchdowns in just nine games as a true freshman this past fall, made his Longhorns debut against Florida and had two catches for 40 yards after being limited with a lower-leg injury since his arrival this summer.

“He’s going to play better,” a Texas source said of Manning, “but everybody around him has got to play better too. The quarterback should get a little help. It doesn’t have to all be on him.”

A HEALTHIER GROUP of backs and receivers will help Manning, but he also must continue to make strides and overcome some of the problems that surfaced in the first few games.

He ranks 119th nationally in catchable pass rate (71.9%) and 128th in third-down conversion percentage on pass plays (19.4%). Perhaps most alarming: Manning is 130th in percentage of off-target passes (17.9%).

“The throws he missed, I’ve seen him on tape the previous year make way harder throws,” said a coach who scouted Manning. “He’s just putting so much pressure on himself. There are three or four hitches or out-cuts that he overstrides and just panics and rips it and goes in the dirt or is inaccurate. His feet are everywhere.”

Footwork is the area several coaches cited that Manning must finetune and should with more starts under his belt. Although Manning has the arm strength to make throws from several different slots, which is increasingly more common, he “throws it a little more sidearm than I thought,” said a coach who scouted Manning.

“It led to some inaccuracies,” the coach said. “I don’t know if he’s trying to be cute, having that whipping motion. That just didn’t look natural to me.”

Manning clearly has some areas to sort out, but also is capable of delivering, as he showed by avoiding the rush from Florida’s Tyreak Sapp and launching a 38-yard touchdown to Wingo.

“I think he’ll be good,” said a defensive coordinator who faced Texas. “He sees pictures, he does a good job extending plays. He’s still young, really hasn’t started a bunch of games. He’s been there, but it’s his fifth game starting.”

Those around him think he has the mental toughness to make corrections, even amid constant scrutiny.

“The kid’s a rock mentally,” said a source close to the program. “They raised him to be a quarterback.”

Texas ultimately needs Manning to be a better quarterback — and lead a better offense — to salvage a season that began with a No. 1 ranking and talk of a national championship and a Heisman Trophy. Any further stumbles likely would mean the Longhorns would miss the CFP for the first time since 2022.

The challenge is magnified this week against No. 6 Oklahoma, which leads the FBS in the fewest yards allowed by more than 10 per game (193 YPG) and ranks second in fewest passing yards allowed (118.4 YPG). The Sooners have already terrorized Michigan freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood (9-of-24, 142 yards). Venables’ scheme is known for making things particularly hard on first-year starting QBs.

“There’s always going to be growing pains,” Sarkisian said last week. “Whether you get those growing pains early, in the middle, late, whatever. … In the end, it’s kind of like, ‘Well, I’d much rather have those growing pains early than later.’ And we got ’em, and now he can get back to being the player he wants to be and is capable of being.”

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer is pushing to return for Saturday’s game against Texas, sources told ESPN.

There’s a belief that Mateer’s return less than three weeks after hand surgery is possible, according to sources, as he has reacted well to the operation. It’s unclear when a decision on Mateer being available to play will be made, as Oklahoma coach Brent Venables has said publicly that it’s uncertain when he will return.

Mateer is recovering from surgery on a broken bone in his right (throwing) hand that took place nearly two weeks ago. Mateer playing against Texas in Saturday’s Allstate Red River Rivalry would dovetail with the most optimistic return timelines, as he would be 17 days out of surgery.

Venables said Tuesday that Mateer is going through “his normal protocol” but emphasized that the quarterback has “done zero good-on-good work.”

“I don’t know anything about the injury,” Venables said. “When they tell me he’s available, I’ll let you know.”

Mateer was injured in the first quarter of Oklahoma’s 24-17 win over Auburn on Sept. 20. He played the rest of the game, and finished 24-of-36 for 271 yards.

Mateer had surgery on Sept. 24, as he flew to Los Angeles to get the surgery from noted hand/wrist surgeon Dr. Steven Shin. The timeline was expected to be in neighborhood of a month.

At the time of the injury, Mateer had established himself as the favorite for the Heisman Trophy and one of the best players in the sport. He has completed 67.4% of passes, throwing for 1,215 yards and six touchdowns.

Mateer also is a force in the Sooners’ running game, as he rushed for 190 yards and five touchdowns. He remains second in the country with 351.3 yards per game of total offense, trailing only Arkansas‘ Taylen Green.

Mateer has missed just one game since the announcement of his injury, as Oklahoma had a bye and then played Kent State last week.

Michael Hawkins Jr. started at quarterback for Oklahoma against Kent State, leading the Sooners to a 44-0 win. He passed for 162 yards and ran for 33 in the victory, completing 14 of 24 attempts and throwing three touchdowns.

ESPN’s Eli Lederman contributed to this report.