Five early-season MLB surprises — and why they’re happening
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Alden Gonzalez
We’re six weeks into the 2025 MLB season, long enough to gather some meaningful intel but short enough to wonder how much of it actually matters.
Pete Alonso has gone from unwanted free agent to MVP front-runner, only one team in the typically mighty American League East boasts a winning record, and some of the game’s best closers — Devin Williams, Alexis Díaz, Ryan Pressly and Emmanuel Clase, in particular — are suddenly not.
Those are just a few of the notable surprises through the first 23% or so of this season. Below are five others, and the reasons behind them.
Spencer Torkelson is suddenly hitting like a No. 1 pick
Spencer Torkelson was the Detroit Tigers’ No. 1 draft pick out of Arizona State University in 2020, billed as a can’t-miss bat. The 2024 season was supposed to be the stage for his breakout. Instead, he found himself back in the minor leagues.
Tigers manager A.J. Hinch texted Torkelson almost daily after the team sent him down to Triple-A in June. At one point, the two even met up for breakfast. Hinch wanted to assure Torkelson that the Tigers were thinking about him and still valued him. But what Torkelson might have needed most, some of those around him believe, was to see the team succeed without him. He needed the urgency to change.
“Coming out of college, I felt like I had it figured out, was the greatest hitter ever,” Torkelson said. “And I got humbled.”
Torkelson struggled so profoundly last year — a .669 OPS, 10 homers and 105 strikeouts in 92 games — that he entered 2025 without a clear path for playing time. Now, early in his age-25 season, he looks like the feared hitter so many expected to see. Through 36 games, Torkelson has already equaled last year’s home run total. He’s drawing walks at a significantly higher rate, OPS’ing .879 and ranking within the top 5% in expected slugging percentage — a stat in which he finished 211th among 252 hitters last year.
Torkelson entered this season with a 361-game sample of inconsistency, but scouts don’t see his sudden success as an early-season fluke — they see it as the result of an elite hitter making consequential adjustments.
Torkelson is more athletic and in rhythm in his stance this year, whereas previously he looked “statuesque,” in the words of one Tigers source. He has more bend in his knees, plants his feet closer together and has implemented a slight crouch. But it’s not really a change. It’s how he hit right up until the time he reached the majors.
“You watch any swing in my entire life,” Torkelson said, “I kinda look exactly the way I look right now.”
The taller stance Torkelson fell into at the big league level was what he described as “a Band-Aid.” The high fastball gave him trouble early on, so Torkelson did what felt obvious: make that high fastball seem less high.
“And it worked,” Torkelson said. “I got away with it. I hit 31 homers and I didn’t even feel that great.”
But those 31 home runs, accumulated in his second year in 2023, masked other deficiencies that showed up the following summer. Torkelson slashed just .205/.271/.337 through the end of May in 2024. Shortly after, he was sent back to Triple-A for what became an 11-week stint. He returned in mid-August, produced a more respectable .781 OPS over his last 38 regular-season games, then went into the offseason vowing to hit the way he used to. He took a lesson from studying one of his favorite hitters, Mike Trout, who has built a Hall of Fame career despite struggling against the high fastball.
“We don’t get paid to hammer the high fastball,” Torkelson said. “We get paid to hammer the mistakes.”
The Tigers signed veteran second baseman Gleyber Torres to a one-year, $15 million deal in late December, then announced Colt Keith would move to first base. Torkelson came into spring training having to fight just to get at-bats at designated hitter.
Then everything changed. Torkelson hit his way into a starting role at first base in 31 of the Tigers’ 36 games. His production — along with that of Javier Baez, who has produced an .827 OPS while transitioning to center field — has given the Tigers some much-needed right-handed power and helped them climb to the top of the AL Central.
“I’m seeing the ball better, and I feel dangerous at the plate,” Torkelson said. “As a hitter, that’s all you can ask for. You’re not going to hit 1.000. But when you’re feeling dangerous and you’re seeing the ball well, you feel like you can’t be beat. You’re going to get beat, but it gives you the best shot.”
The Angels’ lineup is trending toward the worst type of history
Last year, the lowly offenses of the Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox posted two of the 12 worst walk-to-strikeout ratios in major league history. Now the Los Angeles Angels, who entered 2025 with hopes of finally being competitive again, are making an early run at the all-time mark.
The Angels’ offense has accumulated 81 walks through its first 35 games this season, the lowest total in the majors. Their hitters have struck out 338 times (third most). Before tying their season high with six walks in a walk-off win on Wednesday night, their 0.23 walk-to-strikeout rate was on pace to be the worst in baseball history. It has since improved to a mere 0.24, tied with the 2019 White Sox for the lowest ever.
It’s probably not surprising to learn that the full-season bottom 10 in that category has taken place over the past dozen years, at a time when hitters strike out more often than ever. It’s probably also not surprising to learn that seven of those 10 teams lost at least 100 games.
The Angels’ offense has been that bad. Since putting up 11 runs at the spring training facility where the Tampa Bay Rays play on April 10, they rank 29th in batting average, 27th in slugging percentage, and last in each of the following categories: on-base percentage, strikeout rate, walk rate and runs per game.
And though there’s still plenty of time to turn this around, it’s hard to envision how that historically low walk-to-strikeout rate — an important barometer of success on both sides — significantly improves. (Their pitching strikeout-to-walk rate, ranked 27th at 1.90, isn’t much better.)
On Tuesday, the Angels were happy to welcome back Yoan Moncada, who is capable of drawing walks but also strikes out at an exceedingly high rate. A return from Mike Trout, whose latest knee injury is not considered serious, would certainly help, though he reached base at only a .264 clip during his first 29 games. Taylor Ward, meanwhile, is much better than a .180/.225/.376 hitter.
But then there’s Jo Adell, whose career .639 OPS ranks 100th among the 114 players in Angels history with at least 1,000 plate appearances. And Logan O’Hoppe, who had the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the majors last year. And Jorge Soler, a prodigious power hitter who naturally carries a lot of swing-and-miss. And, notably, Kyren Paris, who looked like a breakout star early on but lately looks overmatched; since a two-hit game put his OPS at 1.514 on April 11, Paris has eight hits, three walks and 32 strikeouts in 66 plate appearances.
The Angels’ coaches have been trying to emphasize a two-strike approach with their hitters, but there’s only so much they can do.
“When you’ve got guys that’s capable of hitting the ball out the ballpark, it’s hard to tell them to cut their swing down because they don’t know what that is,” Angels manager Ron Washington said. “And when you’ve got guys in the lineup that don’t have a lot of experience and you say, ‘Cut the swing down,’ they don’t know what that is. There’s a lot of baseball to be gathered around here, man.”
Washington paused for a moment and smiled. Before being hired by the Angels in November 2023, Washington spent seven years as the third-base coach and infield instructor on Atlanta Braves teams brimming with veteran, championship-caliber players. This Angels team is not that. It’s young and inexperienced, and Washington has to remind himself of that constantly.
He is a teacher at heart, and often that requires patience. His is being tested like never before.
The Brewers’ injury-riddled rotation has somehow found a way
Three Milwaukee Brewers starting pitchers — DL Hall, Tobias Myers and Aaron Ashby — landed on the injured list with soft-tissue injuries during spring training. Two more, Aaron Civale and Nestor Cortes, went on the shelf within the regular season’s first week. By that point, the list of starting pitchers on the IL stretched to seven. And yet, in the most Brewers way possible, their rotation followed with a miraculous run.
From April 6-22, the foursome of Freddy Peralta, Chad Patrick, Jose Quintana and Quinn Priester combined for a 1.55 ERA over 63⅔ innings. The Brewers began the season by allowing 47 runs in 33 innings, but since then, their starting rotation boasts the fifth-lowest ERA in the majors at 3.08.
Peralta is a bona fide top-of-the-rotation starter, but Quintana is a 36-year-old who signed for a mere $4 million in March; Priester is a failed first-round pick acquired in a minor trade early last month; and Patrick is a 26-year-old rookie who wasn’t on anybody’s radar when the season began.
But the Brewers have built a reputation for employing pitchers who overachieve. Because they can’t afford the high-ceiling arms who cost a fortune in free agency, they hammer their depth to raise their floor as much as possible. And to do so, they apply a simple concept: develop and acquire pitchers who fit their environment. More specifically, pitchers who benefit most from a strong infield defense.
Quintana, who can throw his sinker with more conviction with better defense behind him, posted a 1.14 ERA in his first four starts before allowing six runs to the Chicago Cubs on Saturday. Patrick, who boasts an elite cutter with two different shapes, has a 3.08 ERA in his first seven turns through the rotation. Priester, the 18th pick in 2019, had a 6.23 ERA in 99⅔ major league innings heading into 2025. But the Brewers were intrigued by a minor league track record in which he had roughly average strikeout and walk rates and kept more than half the batted balls against him on the ground. Priester maintained a 1.93 ERA through his first three starts before allowing 12 runs over his next 9⅓ innings.
That rough patch aside, Priester helped stabilize a Brewers rotation that was in dire straits when the season began. A key reinforcement could come by the end of this week, when Brandon Woodruff makes his long-awaited return from shoulder surgery. Woodruff has been fully healthy, pitching without restrictions, but his velocity has been down, his fastball sitting in the 92- to 94-mph range as opposed to the upper-90s heat he featured while pitching like an ace. When Woodruff returns, he might have to pitch differently.
The Brewers will probably figure it out.
The next hitting star on the Rays is actually … Jonathan Aranda?
The Tampa Bay Rays exceeded their international bonus pool in 2014, restricting them to signing players for no more than $300,000 over the next two years. And yet, leading up to the 2015 signing period, assistant general manager Carlos Rodríguez and then-international scouting supervisor Eddie Díaz traveled to Tijuana, Mexico, to watch a Cuban outfielder they could not afford: Randy Arozarena.
The trip proved to be beneficial years later, when the Rays acquired Arozarena from the St. Louis Cardinals and helped him become a star. But it was beneficial for another reason: It helped them discover Jonathan Aranda.
Rodríguez, at that time the director of Latin American scouting, asked Díaz to line up other prospects to see during the trip. Aranda was in that group and caught their eye. The Rays signed him for $130,000 in July 2015. Ten years later, they’re watching him blossom.
Aranda, a 26-year-old left-handed hitter, ranks third with 182 weighted runs created plus this season, behind only Aaron Judge and Alonso. He’s slashing .317/.417/.554 with 14 extra-base hits. And so far, at least, he’s stealing the spotlight from Junior Caminero, widely hailed as the Rays’ next hitting phenom. It’s easy to be skeptical — Aranda’s .971 OPS is 279 points higher than his career mark in 110 games going into 2025 — but those who know him best are adamant that this is real.
Aranda has always been an elite hitter. The question was how the Rays would fit him into their major league roster. He came up as a shortstop at around the same time Wander Franco surged through the system. By the time he was on the cusp of the major leagues, the likes of Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Brandon Lowe and Ji-man Choi occupied the other infield positions.
At one point, the Rays had Aranda try catching in hopes of getting his bat to the big leagues quicker. They felt he might have the arm and the hands for it. Aranda went back to Mexico and caught a handful of bullpen sessions but decided against it. He expressed confidence that his bat would eventually be enough to reach the majors.
It looked like it would in 2024. Aranda slashed .371/.421/.571 in 13 Grapefruit League games that spring and was primed to crack the Opening Day roster. But then he broke his right ring finger fielding a grounder, missed about five weeks and struggled for most of the ensuing season. It prompted a stint in winter ball, where he made small mechanical tweaks that have helped him thrive in the early part of 2025.
But mostly, Rays officials believe, Aranda’s success stems from finally having a pathway for consistent playing time, largely as the stronger half of a DH platoon. His splits are quite drastic — 1.066 OPS against righties, three hits in 18 at-bats against lefties — but Aranda profiles as a 20-plus home run hitter who can rack up doubles and control the strike zone. It just took him a bit to get there.
Max Muncy suddenly can’t hit home runs
Max Muncy went 106 plate appearances before finally hitting his first home run of 2025 on the final day of April. It marked the longest single-season homerless streak of his career, easily topping the 80-plate-appearance rut from 2022, according to ESPN Research.
His biggest issue was one that plagues many left-handed hitters who throw right-handed.
“He gets out on his front side pretty quickly,” Dodgers hitting coach Aaron Bates explained. “Part of the challenge for him is when he needs to start his leg kick and how to maintain balance as he’s striding forward. Because he throws with his right hand and hits lefty, the right side of his body kind of dominates his swing moving toward the pitcher, which is pretty common for a lot of guys. You look at Corey Seager, he’s pretty balanced. But a lot of times, when you have a lefty-righty-combo guy, they get kind of pulled that way. So that’s something that he has to constantly battle, and he has his whole career. When he’s synced up and he’s right, it’s great. And when he’s out of whack, he’s got to work to get it right.”
Muncy spent the better part of the first month working to sync up his timing, specifically when he drives his momentum forward. Few major league hitters stay on their back side through their entire load, Aaron Judge being a notable exception. But for most of this season, Muncy was getting to his front side too early, which resulted in fouling off hittable fastballs and struggling against breaking pitches.
“When you don’t trust yourself as a hitter, you don’t wanna get beat, and so you get off your backside sooner,” Bates said. “So it’s like the chicken or the egg.”
When Muncy settled into the batter’s box in the second inning on April 30, 305 players had already homered in the major leagues this season. Muncy, with four 35-plus-homer seasons on his résumé, was not one of them. That day, he debuted prescription eyeglasses he had been testing out during pregame workouts to combat astigmatism in his right eye. The hope, Muncy told reporters, was that the glasses would make him less left-eye dominant.
But the biggest issue was a swing he had tweaked to produce low line drives instead of fly balls but wound up making him drift forward too early. Getting his weight shift back to normal proved to be a slow process. But to Bates, an encouraging sign arrived two days before Muncy’s first home run — when he stayed back on a sinker and dumped an opposite-field line drive into left-center.
Muncy has produced just the one home run — putting him in the same boat as Alec Bohm, Bo Bichette and Xander Bogaerts, and one ahead of Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham and Gabriel Moreno — and still doesn’t seem fully in sync. But he’s carrying a slightly more respectable .750 OPS since the start of that game on April 30. He’s drawing walks, displaying some power, and at some point, Bates believes, the home runs will come in bunches.
“It can be any at-bat,” Bates said, “he’s homering.”
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Jorge Castillo
NEW YORK — Cody Bellinger stood in the on-deck circle during the fourth inning Tuesday night — the ideal vantage point to follow the 100 mph fastball that Aaron Judge somehow launched from over a foot inside off the plate and into the sky down the left-field line in what was perhaps the most important swing of the New York Yankees‘ 2025 season.
Bellinger had just one wish: “I was just saying, ‘Hit the f—ing foul pole.'”
When it did, striking the pole three-quarters of the way to the top for a game-tying three-run homer against the Toronto Blue Jays, a path to survival cleared for the Yankees, who were facing elimination in Game 3 of the American League Division Series.
Finally, after being dominated the first two games and falling behind by five runs Tuesday, there was life. Soon after, for the first time all series, the Yankees took the lead on Jazz Chisholm Jr.‘s laser to right field in the fifth inning.
In the end, fueled by their first offensive explosion of the postseason and a crucial bullpen performance, the Yankees won 9-6 to force a Game 4 on Wednesday.
“You just never know with the wind if it’s going to push it foul and keep curving or not,” Judge said. “But I guess a couple ghosts out there in Monument Park helped kind of keep that fair.”
The Blue Jays had been 39-0 this season when leading by at least five runs. The Yankees had not won a playoff game after trailing by at least five runs since the 2010 AL Championship Series, and they became the fifth team in history to overcome a five-run deficit when facing elimination.
“It was just keep putting together at-bats,” Bellinger said. “Grinding away, chipping away. The confidence in this room is very high. We all believe in each other. Not an ideal start for us, obviously, but we got to pick each other up, and we did a good job of that today.”
The series shifted to the Bronx after two games in Toronto, but the script appeared nearly identical early. Outscored 23-8 at Rogers Centre, the Yankees fell behind 6-1 through 2½ innings Tuesday. Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continued his superstar turn with his third home run of the series, a two-run blast in the first inning. All-Star Carlos Rodón lasted just 2⅓ innings, forcing New York’s bullpen to cover at least 20 outs.
The Yankees were reeling again.
But this time, they rebounded, tallying two runs in the third inning, three in the fourth on Judge’s power display, two more in the fifth and a final one in the sixth with help from two Toronto errors and Anthony Santander‘s errant diving attempt on a double by Bellinger.
Meanwhile, five Yankees relievers combined to toss 6⅔ scoreless innings. Devin Williams logged 1⅓ frames — the first time he has pitched more than one inning this season — to extend his scoreless streak to 12⅓ innings since Sept. 7. David Bednar followed to finish the job with a five-out save.
“They were awesome,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said of the relievers. “Again, I don’t think any of them, hopefully, are overly taxed too, with the game tomorrow.”
On the other side, the Blue Jays used six relievers to cover 5⅓ innings after Shane Bieber exited with two outs in the third inning. Louis Varland, the second one summoned, was inserted by manager John Schneider to face Judge in the fourth inning. The hard-throwing right-hander got ahead 0-2 when he threw a pitch that he nor anybody else in the stadium thought Judge could hit over the wall and keep fair.
“It just shows he’s just unbelievable,” Chisholm said of Judge. “We all went over the video about 10 times in the dugout after he hit it. It was crazy.”
“You just never know with the wind if it’s going to push it foul and keep curving or not. But I guess a couple ghosts out there in Monument Park helped kind of keep that fair.”
Aaron Judge
The blast was the sixth of Judge’s career in potential elimination games, tying David Ortiz for the most in postseason history. The two-time AL MVP finished Tuesday’s contest 3-for-4 with a double and an intentional walk, pushing his playoff batting average to .500 and OPS to 1.304. Judge added two diving catches in right field and heads-up baserunning that led to a run in the third inning.
Heavily scrutinized for his October struggles in previous years, Judge is carrying the Yankees.
“It was a best-player-in-the-game type performance,” Boone said. “It was special when, obviously, needless to say, we’re backs against the wall and then some in a Game 3 situation.”
The Yankees will be in that position again in Game 4, their fourth elimination game in less than a week. They will have, on paper, the pitching edge with Cam Schlittler getting the start and the Blue Jays deploying a bullpen game with Varland as the opener.
The path to survive another day and force a winner-take-all Game 5 in Toronto on Friday is there.
“For us, it’s about living to fight another day, right?” Bellinger said. “That’s all you can really do in this game.”
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Greg Wyshynski
The Colorado Avalanche are going to win the 2026 Stanley Cup.
I made the declaration about a month ago when pressed for a Cup pick. At the time, I thought I was being a Brooklyn hipster going against a wave of sentiment behind the Edmonton Oilers, who have lost consecutive Stanley Cup Finals; the Dallas Stars, who have lost three straight Western Conference finals; and the Vegas Golden Knights, who added Mitch Marner in the offseason.
Imagine my surprise when I looked at the ESPN hockey family’s season predictions and saw the Avalanche were in fact the chalk of a very crowded field. A hipster picker’s nightmare, indeed.
As is tradition, I revealed my Stanley Cup selection to a member of that team while at the player media tour in Las Vegas:
Me: I wanted to inform you that I’m picking you guys to win the Stanley Cup.
Avalanche star Cale Makar: I appreciate that.
Me: I also wanted to inform you that I’m not good at making Stanley Cup predictions.
Makar: Well, we’ll prove that wrong, hopefully.
I have the Avalanche winning the Cup over the Carolina Hurricanes, who are in at least their sixth attempt to break through in the Eastern Conference under coach Rod Brind’amour. I explain why below in my full 2025-26 NHL season standings predictions.
Here’s my division-by-division breakdown. Playoff teams are bolded. Good luck to all 32 teams. Hope everyone has fun out there.
ATLANTIC DIVISION
Tampa Bay Lightning
Ottawa Senators
Toronto Maple Leafs
Florida Panthers
Buffalo Sabres
Montreal Canadiens
Detroit Red Wings
Boston Bruins
There’s probably no greater example of the constant power rebalancing in the Atlantic than the fact that the Lightning haven’t finished atop the division since 2018-19. That’s despite having Nikita Kucherov, second only to Connor McDavid in points (378) over the past three seasons; Andrei Vasilevskiy, third in save percentage (.913) in that span; Victor Hedman, seventh in points among defensemen (191) and a defensive rock on which to build; and the rest of a cast that includes Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel.
Oh, and behind the bench a guy named Jon Cooper, considered by everyone except Jack Adams Award voters to be the best coach in the league.
The Lightning will win the Atlantic this season handily. Kucherov’s line with Point and Guentzel averaged over four goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. The duo of Cirelli and Hagel produced a 61% expected goals percentage together last season. Ryan McDonagh, a true glue guy, returned to the scene of his two Stanley Cup wins and had one of the most underappreciated seasons by a defenseman in 2024-25. Tampa Bay gets full seasons of Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde, and 24-year-old Gage Goncalves has another gear to hit. The Bolts will have at least one new banner to raise in the rafters after this season.
One of the bottom-feeders in the Atlantic was eventually going to be full enough to rise into contention, and that ended up being the Senators, who made the playoffs last spring for the first time since 2017. They’ll continue to ascend provided the forward group cooperates.
Brady Tkachuk, growing into one of the NHL’s greatest captains, needs to get back to the mid-30s in goals — and having linemate Tim Stützle return to the 90-point plateau is key in that. Dylan Cozens already showed he’s going to be the next in the grand tradition of Buffalo Sabres’ transactional regrets after last year’s trade deadline pickup. But this season hinges on players such as Shane Pinto, Ridly Greig and Fabian Zetterlund, a trade deadline dud whom Ottawa still extended for three seasons.
The forwards being make-or-break means I’m fairly confident in the Sens’ back end. Jake Sanderson established himself as an elite top-pairing guy, which has allowed Thomas Chabot to thrive on a second pairing with Nick Jensen. Jordan Spence comes over from the Kings to significantly upgrade what Travis Hamonic gave the Sens last season. Linus Ullmark was awesome from December on last season. His crease-mate, Leevi Merilainen, could be a sneaky Calder Trophy candidate. There’s a lot to like here for coach Travis Green, who made major strides in giving this team some defensive structure last season. The Senators are adding while others in the Atlantic are subtracting.
Losing Mitch Marner means losing points in the standings for the Maple Leafs. He’s a 100-point winger who led the team in power-play points and was their best penalty-killing forward. Did that transfer over to the postseason? Absolutely not, which is why Marner deserved criticism, though perhaps not to pariah levels. But no one had a higher wins above replacement on the Leafs last regular season than Marner (2.8). I’m sure that will be celebrated when he returns to Toronto with Vegas on Jan. 23 for a game that’ll make John Tavares‘ return to Long Island as a Leaf look like a concert by The Wiggles by comparison.
The “Core Four” lost one but might have gained another. Replacing Mitch Marner with Matthew Knies appears a bit like the Ninja Turtles swapping Leonardo for Casey Jones, but Knies is primed to pop after a 29-goal campaign. The Leafs know what they have in William Nylander, who is eighth in goals scored (125) over the past three seasons, and they have him next to Tavares, who at 35 is half the player he used to be and is paid as such. If we’re going by his career cadence, Auston Matthews should score over 60 goals this season. The Leafs would probably settle for seeing the former MVP’s dangerous dominance after injuries diminished him last season. So would Team USA in the Olympic Games in February.
The Leafs imported Matias Maccelli from Utah to help replace Marner’s points, and it still seems like a weird decision to add a guy who had six hits in 55 games to a Craig Berube team. Because everywhere you look on this roster, you’re starting to see a Craig Berube team: Nicolas Roy, acquired from Vegas in Marner’s departure, is a very solid 3C. A full season of Brandon Carlo adds to a blue line full of size and punishment in front of the goaltenders Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz, who made me a believer last year despite their constant injury concerns. There’s a sturdiness here that would normally lead to playoff success. The Maple Leafs’ undoing might be not having enough superstar offensive skill around it.
Speaking of talent subtractions: Can the Panthers survive without Matthew Tkachuk until at least December and without Aleksander Barkov until at least April? The answer is “in this conference, probably.” But it brings me no joy to report that the Panthers’ three-peat attempt could end with them missing the playoffs entirely, especially given how much I’ve grown to love the beach vistas and fried fish in covering their past three runs to the Stanley Cup Final.
The Panthers’ most important player this season is Sam Reinhart, full stop. Over the past two seasons playing without Barkov on his line (593:21 in 5-on-5 ice time), the Panthers had 0.75 fewer goals per 60 minutes with Reinhart on the ice while breaking even in what they scored and gave up. Coach Paul Maurice seems to favor bumping Brad Marchand up with Sam Bennett while Eetu Luostarinen and Anton “Baby Barkov” Lundell play with Reinhart during Tkachuk’s absence. When Tkachuk comes back, Reinhart, who has scored 160 goals in 321 games since joining the Panthers, will still have to drive his line in Barkov’s absence, which isn’t a given.
There’s probably something freeing for a two-time defending champ to enter a season with the pressure somewhat diminished by these injuries. The Panthers already had a “just get in” mindset for the playoffs. Now, they can hunker down, and rely on a defensive structure fortified by arguably the best top four in the conference — Aaron Ekblad and Gus Forsling, Seth Jones and Niko Mikkola — in front of Sergei Bobrovsky. GM Bill Zito kept this band together to try to become the NHL’s first dynasty with three consecutive Cups since the 1980s Islanders. With a healthy Tkachuk and Barkov, the three-peat could be within reach. But getting an invite to that playoff party will be harder than it has been since Maurice arrived in Sunrise.
The Sabres are easily the most confounding team in the Atlantic this season. They’ve regressed in the standings in consecutive seasons. Health seems to always be a concern, never more so than when Josh Norris is being relied upon as a critical center. The goaltending is more “fingers crossed” than Vezina Trophy-worthy. There are some givens — Tage Thompson‘s offensive rampage to ensure an Olympic roster spot, Rasmus Dahlin potentially being the Norris Trophy flavor of the season — but the incremental improvements GM Kevyn Adams has made to this roster don’t seem to answer its many questions.
That established, the hockey analytics community loves the Sabres this season more than data scraping in Python. Most fancy stats analysts I read have them finishing with over 90 points, with my friends at Evolving Hockey going as high as 99 points. As Jack “JFresh” Fraser writes in his season preview: “Ryan McLeod, Owen Power, Zach Benson, Alex Tuch, Josh Doan, Jason Zucker, Michael Kesselring, Conor Timmins — all pretty good to great players. This is a team that’s had abundant weak links for years and seems, maybe, to have patched them up for a change. Add in Dahlin and Thompson, who both profile like superstars, and there you go. Would I put money on it? Hell no. But it’s something to watch for.”
The Canadiens also broke out last season to qualify for the playoffs, losing to the Washington Capitals in five games. I think this talented young team takes a step back this season before an eventual leap forward. The Canadiens can’t defend. They’re a playoff team whose expected goals against last season at even strength (2.87, 31st) ranked behind the San Jose Sharks, who were disinterested in playing defense at all. They were fourth from the bottom in scoring chances allowed. I don’t think they’ve done much to remedy that. In fact, it might have gotten worse, despite all that Noah Dobson and Ivan Demidov can bring plenty to the team offensively. There’s only so much that Sam Montembeault can paper over with goaltending that saw him save 25 goals above expected last season.
The latest amendment to GM Steve Yzerman’s “Yzerplan,” which the Red Wings have executed since 2019: Finally getting John Gibson out of Anaheim for the last two years of his contract. Detroit used four goalies last season, and Cam Talbot was the only keeper. This new goalie battery on a Todd McLellan-coached team gave me pause, but not as much as Gibson’s inability to stay in the lineup does. Otherwise, it’s another season with some young bright spots — Moritz Seider, Simon Edvinsson, Lucas Raymond and hopefully Marco Kasper, or else Detroit’s in real trouble this season. The Wings don’t have the talent to make the playoffs but have enough of it to limit their lottery odds. Which is unfortunately the most palpable result of the Yzerplan.
I might be low on the Bruins here. If the defense corps is healthy in front of Jeremy Swayman, who had a proper training camp this time, they could grind out some wins for first-year coach Marco Sturm. And by “defense corps” we essentially mean Charlie McAvoy, who was limited to 50 games last season while posting his lowest points-per-60 minutes average in six seasons. But even a return to Norris contention for Charlie Mac isn’t going to turn the tide for Boston, whose overall depth is that of a team which went on a selling spree at last season’s trade deadline. David Pastrnak is now Ilya Kovalchuk on the Atlanta Thrashers: someone who’s good for 50 goals and a 100-point pace no matter who surrounds him, but in service of a basement dweller.
METROPOLITAN DIVISION
Carolina Hurricanes
New Jersey Devils
Washington Capitals
New York Rangers
Columbus Blue Jackets
New York Islanders
Pittsburgh Penguins
Philadelphia Flyers
Whereas the Atlantic Division has some upwardly mobile teams below the contenders, the Metro feels like four teams with strong playoff chances and then four teams those top four will mine for points — with one exception.
The Hurricanes are tied with the Oilers and Golden Knights for the best odds to make the playoffs on ESPN BET, which says as much about the relative strengths of the Metro and Pacific as it does about these teams. I infamously picked the Hurricanes to miss the playoffs in last year’s column, and hey, it’s not like they made it all the way to the conference finals to make me look like a total idiot. Picking them to win the Metro and the entire Eastern Conference is not an act of contrition but a tacit admission that Carolina has hit that sweet spot of veteran impact players comingling with outstanding young stars in the most consistently effective coaching system in the NHL.
What a long, strange trip it’s been for GM Eric Tulsky. He landed Jake Guentzel at the 2024 trade deadline, only to bow out in the second round and watch him leave for Tampa Bay. Still seeking that playoff scoring solution, Tulsky last season landed Taylor Hall from Chicago and Mikko Rantanen from Colorado for Martin Necas, but traded Rantanen after just 13 games because he wouldn’t commit long-term in Raleigh.
That resulted in Carolina getting Logan Stankoven, an outstanding 22-year-old forward, and a bunch of picks from Dallas. And after searching the free agent options for top-line left wing help, the Hurricanes went down a tier and signed Nikolaj Elhers from the Jets, a play-driving winger with some injury history who’s nonetheless well suited for what they do. They money they didn’t spend on Rantanen went to Ehlers and defenseman K’Andre Miller, a pending restricted free agent acquired from the Rangers partially through one of the first-rounders they received from Dallas. He joins a deep defense corps bolstered by one of the NHL’s best rookies in Alexander Nikishin.
There are some points of concern with the Canes, starting with second-line center. Jesperi Kotkaniemi hasn’t been the answer. They’ve been using Stankoven there and might still try Seth Jarvis as an internal solution. This might be where Tulsky tries to use his cap space and draft capital to improve the team before the deadline. Or perhaps that’ll be in goal, where Frederik Andersen remains dominant but a constant injury concern, with Pyotr Kochetkov yet to show he’s anything but a downgrade.
Rod Brind’Amour has led the Hurricanes to a .604 points percentage or better in six of his seven season as head coach. He has led them to the conference finals three times without ever playing for the Stanley Cup. The Canes will kick that wall down this season with a tenacious, talented group that has room for improvement.
Are the Devils keeping their powder dry for a run at Quinn Hughes? They’d be silly not to if there’s even a small chance that Vancouver trades him to “play with his brothers” before his 2027 unrestricted free agency. But the reason the Devils tinkered with the roster instead of taking big swings is likely because they like what they have already and want to see what it looks like with a healthy Jack Hughes.
They were 33-23-6 with Hughes in the lineup until his injury on March 2, creating a points cushion that enabled them to still make the playoffs despite losing 12 of their final 21 games of the season. He has been over 3.2 points per 60 minutes in each of his past four seasons. Hughes is everything for the Devils, from being their offensive engine to being the reason they just paid a 22-year-old defenseman $63 million for services yet rendered. If Luke Hughes is happy, Jack’s hopefully happy.
New Jersey has a deeply talented blue line and the goaltending tandem of Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen, who took their team save percentage from 30th to 11th. GM Tom Fitzgerald had a nice signing in former Oiler Connor Brown and has anointed Cody Glass as the third-line center to start the season. If the bottom six is better and the team has better injury luck, the Devils are poised to make noise this season. Or, failing that, just trade for Quinn, I guess.
The Capitals don’t know what the future holds for 40-year-old Alex Ovechkin, who is now the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer at 897 and in the last year of his contract. But Capitals coach Spencer Carbery told ESPN’s “The Drop” that he’s relieved there isn’t another overriding Ovechkin story that his team is experiencing every night on the road, with “Ovi’s last season” replacing The Great Chase.
“Definitely. No doubt. If that was the case then every building you go into, especially the Western teams, it’ll be the last time definitely that he goes into those arenas,” he said.
Instead, the Capitals can remain focused on repeating their incredible 111-point campaign from last season, which saw them advance to the second round of the playoffs. GM Chris Patrick won almost every bet he made last offseason, such as with Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jakob Chychrun and Logan Thompson. Provided there’s little to no regression there, and young players such as Aliaksei Protas and Ryan Leonard progress, they’ll keep Ovechkin in contention in what could be his final NHL season.
The Rangers were messy last season, but regime change generally is. GM Chris Drury played hardball with veterans who had trade protection, resulting in captain Jacob Trouba and franchise pillar Chris Kreider flying to Anaheim and former Ranger J.T. Miller returning from Vancouver to say, “I’m the captain now.” Coach Peter Laviolette paid with his job for the Rangers’ descent from the conference finals to outside the postseason. Enter Mike Sullivan, another former Ranger (as assistant coach from 2009 to 2013), who escaped the rebuilding Penguins.
The Rangers have enough talent in the right places to overcome significant lineup holes and earn a playoff spot this season. Miller’s arrival helped pull Mika Zibanejad out of a nightmarish season. Will Cuylle is burgeoning star who’ll take over most of what Kreider was doing in the lineup. The line of Alexis Lafrenière, Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck is a dependable force — and Panarin is in a contract year, too.
The Rangers need Adam Fox to recapture the magic of his Norris Trophy form, and importing Kings defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov as a free agent should do the trick. Provided Igor Shesterkin bounces back with a better structure in front of him — and he had 21.6 goals saved above expected — the Rangers should be the fourth Metro playoff team, if not much more than that.
It doesn’t get more inspiring than what the Blue Jackets did last season, finishing two points out of a playoff spot while playing through unfathomable grief. I love what they’re building in Columbus, and a wild-card spot isn’t out of the question.
It’s conceivable that Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson and Kirill Marchenko all take another huge leap forward surrounded by an improved supporting cast — I love the Charlie Coyle addition. It’s possible that Denton Mateychuk has a breakout season on a blue line that needs more skill. But the season probably rests on the shoulder pads of 24-year-old Jet Greaves, and whether he’s good enough to wrest the crease from Elvis Merzlikins. Because someone needs to.
The combination of a CBA-mandated relaxed dress code and the post-Lou Lamoriello lift on facial hair restrictions could have the Islanders’ dressing room looking like Bonnaroo. Frankly, it’s about time this organization had an infusion of personality, and it arrives in the form of 18-year-old Matthew Schaefer. The No. 1 pick has boundless enthusiasm and charisma to spare. This is largely the same roster that Lamoriello created, which finished with 82 points last season. A full season of Mathew Barzal probably gets the Islanders slightly more than that, but not much more.
There’s no point in assessing the playoff potential of the Penguins, whose roster is like a random name generator surrounding a core of six veterans stuck in hockey purgatory under new head coach Dan Muse. The entire conversation about this team will be about what happens to that core by the trade deadline, most specifically the fates of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
Everyone around Sid wants the legend to remove himself from this narrative, join a Stanley Cup contender and thrive in the postseason spotlight again. But he has steadfastly dedicated himself to seeing things through in Pittsburgh as a Shein version of the Capitals’ retool around Ovechkin. I’m still optimistic that he’ll change his mind. I’m even more convinced that Malkin will move this season, especially after he cast an appreciative eye toward the fun Brad Marchand was having last season. You know, with the Florida Panthers, the team near one of Malkin’s homes in Miami and that currently has an opening for a veteran No. 1 center. Just sayin’.
The most that the Flyers can hope for this season is the continued progress of its young players as new coach Rick Tocchet power-drills fundamentals into them. They’re going to be a tough out and fun to watch, depending on how much time Trevor Zegras and Matvei Michkov are given to create content. But the Flyers aren’t likely to grab too many headlines in Philadelphia this season. The Jalen Hurts discourse can continue, uninterrupted.
CENTRAL DIVISION
Colorado Avalanche
Dallas Stars
Utah Mammoth
Winnipeg Jets
Minnesota Wild
St. Louis Blues
Nashville Predators
Chicago Blackhawks
The simplest justification for why I think the Avalanche will win the Stanley Cup is that they again have the essential building blocks for a championship team. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are top-five NHL players overall and one Connor McDavid away from both being the best at what they do. The Avs have their No. 2 center in Brock Nelson after years of post-Nazem Kadri searching. They have a goalie in Mackenzie Blackwood who has at least the potential to be the guy who might not win you a series but won’t lose it for you either.
(Results are pending on that last one.)
Can Martin Necas give them 75% of what Mikko Rantanen did, as was the gamble in trading their star winger last season? Can Samuel Girard and Josh Manson be the rock-solid second paring behind the ridiculously good Makar and Devon Toews? Can Gabriel Landeskog, one of last season’s most heartwarming stories that lacked a storybook ending, become Gabriel Landeskog again?
I’m saying yes to all of this. I’m also putting my faith in an aggressive front office to once again bolster this lineup before the postseason if necessary, whether incrementally or with a big swing. Say, did you hear Nathan MacKinnon grew up in Cole Harbour, Nova Scotia? I wonder if that’s relevant to any other current events in the NHL …
Since winning the Stanley Cup in 2022, the Avalanche have been eliminated in the first round to Seattle, the second round to Dallas and the first round to Dallas again. That last seven-game loss to the Stars left MacKinnon “shocked” and unsure how to process it. That’s exactly what you want to hear as an Avalanche fan. Palpable disgust is what fueled MacKinnon’s first Cup win. The tank’s nearly full again.
The first question that needs to be asked about the Stars is whether they made three straight Western Conference finals because they were coached by Pete DeBoer or because they were a three-time conference finalist that he happened to coach. We’ll find out now that DeBoer is somewhere muttering things about Jake Oettinger under his breath while Glen Gulutzan, an Oilers assistant who coached the Stars from 2011 to 2013, takes over.
The Stars are still in the sweet spot for NHL teams: productive veterans and outstanding young players and a franchise goalie combining for a Cup-worthy team. Last season saw them add a superstar in Mikko Rantanen, and anyone who watched the playoffs understands his postseason impact.
Yet Dallas has room for improvement. Teams of scientists are still trying to determine what happened to Wyatt Johnston in the 2025 playoffs, mustering four goals in 18 games with a minus-16. The Matt Duchene regression seems inevitable. They’re going to have to replace what they lost in Mikael Granlund, Mason Marchment and Evgenii Dadonov. The young standouts such as Thomas Harley, Lian Bichsel and Mavrik Bourque must continue to level up.
Again: The Dallas Stars can win the Stanley Cup this season if the mix is right and the path is friendly. One just hopes that DeBoer didn’t take their window to win with him, and that the legacy of his group is as the Western Conference’s annual bridesmaid.
The Mammoth will make the playoffs. I’m a believer that the core they’ve built there — Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley — is trending to be the type of elite trio that powers a team to the postseason. Keller and Nick Schmaltz anchor one line. Cooley, whose ceiling increasingly looks to be a Jack Hughes-adjacent player, is in the middle of Guenther and JJ Peterka, their big offseason acquisition from the Buffalo Sabres.
It gets a wee thinner at forward after that, with more role players (Lawson Crouse, Brandon Tanev) than impact players. But that’s fine. The Mammoth don’t need to be the Florida Panthers. They just need their top two lines to be their motor.
Speaking of the Panthers, the delightful Nate Schmidt joins a Mammoth back end that was besieged by injuries last season. A full season of Sean Durzi and John Marino is essential to Utah’s success. I’m also interested in seeing if and when rookie Maveric Lamoureux, a really talented 6-foot-6 shutdown defender, makes his mark. Fingers crossed that Karel Vejmelka gives the Mammoth another strong season with a more dependable backup in Vitek Vanecek. If the back end holds up, the first Stanley Cup playoff games played in Salt Lake City await.
The Wild, Blues and Jets are all going to be in the mix for the wild cards, with maybe one team from the Pacific Division contending against them. The Central has boasted five playoff teams twice in the past four seasons.
The Jets are easily the best team of these three, and they’re my pick to make the playoffs again on the strength of Connor Hellebuyck, who rightfully won the Hart and the Vezina last season. His side quest to the Olympics means some extra physical and mental strain, but he’s going to give the Jets at least 60 games of the league’s best goaltending. He’s on that McDavid and MacKinnon level of being able to will a team into the postseason on his own.
He’ll have to be great because the team in front of him is diminished after Nikolaj Ehlers left in free agency. Maybe that would be further diminished: The Jets were 20th in 5-on-5 scoring chances last season and 13th in expected goals. Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele combined for 80 goals last season. Without Ehlers, they need continued support from Gabriel Vilardi, and more of it from Cole Perfetti. (What Jonathan Toews gives them as a No. 2 center at this stage of his career is anyone’s guess.)
In the end, they’re solid enough defensively in front of the league’s best goaltender that this offense can get them into the playoffs, but it’s going to be a precipitous drop from last season’s 116-point campaign.
The Blues were one shot away from eliminating the Jets in Game 7 of the first round before losing in double overtime, and this is the first time I realized how ironic that must have been for Jordan Binnington after the 4 Nations Face-Off.
There’s a lot that I like about the Blues, beginning with coach Jim Montgomery. They went 35-18-7 after he abruptly took over from Drew Bannister just 22 games into the season. He got them to hunker down defensively in front of Binnington, as the Blues were fourth in NHL in goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Jimmy Snuggerud is going to be a rookie sensation and will give this team valuable secondary scoring behind the usual suspects like Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou. I’m not in love with the aging curve of the Blues’ top three defensemen, but there’s no question that Colton Parayko played himself back onto everyone’s radar and the team hit a new gear once GM Doug Armstrong rescued Cam Fowler from the Ducks.
I have St. Louis right on the cusp of the playoff bubble. If the Blues make it, no surprise. If they barely miss it, no surprise. Heck, if they finish second in the division, no surprise because Montgomery gets that out of teams. But Monty’s teams can also sometimes underwhelm you offensively without stars doing star things — see David Pastrnak during the coach’s time with the Bruins. The Blues don’t have that guy, and they ended up 27th in expected goals per 60 minutes last season at 5-on-5. I think they barely miss.
The Wild will spend $136 million to keep Kirill Kaprizov through 2033-34. Bold prediction: At some point during that run, the Wild will have built a Stanley Cup contender around him. You can see the broad strokes of it now. Brock Faber and Zeev Buium anchoring the defense. Jesper Wallstedt as the franchise goalie. Offense up front from Matt Boldy, Danila Yurov and … uh … is Marco Rossi officially not going to be traded?
Point being that this feels like a transition year for the Wild. I’m not a huge fan of their offensive depth beyond Kaprizov, assuming he remains healthy. Which he better be, because with him limited to 41 games last season, the Wild were the worst 5-on-5 team offensively in the NHL, with expected goals percentage 29th. That was the reason they finished minus-11 in goal differential last season, second worst among all playoff teams.
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Wild ink Kirill Kaprizov to largest contact in NHL history
Check out the numbers behind Kirill Kaprizov’s record NHL deal.
The Predators held on to coach Andrew Brunette, not only because GM Barry Trotz believes in the offensive game he preaches, but also because the team would probably be paying him not to coach until at least 2027. He was part of those offseason additions a year ago that had us all convinced the Predators were going to be a force in the Western Conference, until it became apparent that the Lightning guessed right on Steven Stamkos‘ decline, Brady Skjei was a product of the Hurricanes’ system and Jonathan Marchessault‘s game is much better when surrounded by contender-level talent. Factor in Juuse Saros playing to below replacement level, and Nashville was cooked like Hattie B’s.
Are the Predators going to be better than 68 points this season? Undoubtedly yes if Saros has an average season and the team isn’t out of the playoff race by early December like it was last season, when it went 7-16-6 in its first 29 games. But that won’t be good enough to make the playoffs in the Central. Does Trotz need to have some tough conversations with players who have term and trade protection about the direction of this team? Or is there any way the team’s next wave — such as Matthew Wood, Fedor Svechkov and eventually Brady Martin — breaks out in time to maximize the years left on those veterans’ contracts?
Finally, some reasons to watch the Blackhawks beyond Connor Bedard, who might not spend the next seven months feeling dejected and competitively lonely. Frank Nazar is legit, although he’s going to have the same “center who should really be a winger” discourse surrounding him that Bedard does. I want to see what Sam Rinzel does as a 6-foot-4 power-play point man. The Blackhawks are going to be terrible — hopefully less so under new coach Jeff Blashill — but at least we can tune in for glimpses of the future rather than a bunch of veteran placeholders orbiting Bedard for 82 games.
PACIFIC DIVISION
Edmonton Oilers
Vegas Golden Knights
Los Angeles Kings
Vancouver Canucks
Anaheim Ducks
Calgary Flames
Seattle Kraken
San Jose Sharks
For all the fanfare about Connor McDavid forgoing free agency to re-sign with the Oilers, the fact remains that he heard their plans, looked at their roster and decided that he’s spending only the next three seasons chasing a Stanley Cup with them. Although that doesn’t inspire much confidence about the long-term prospects of the Oilers, it does mean McDavid believes there’s enough here to win in the short term.
(And hey, cheer up, Leon Draisaitl, even though McDavid might bolt in summer 2028 and you’re signed through 2032-33. Remember: Mark Messier won the Cup after Wayne Gretzky left!)
In many ways, this is the same team that came up short against the Panthers (again) in the Stanley Cup Final, albeit one that should have a healthy Zach Hyman at some point in the next few months. GM Stan Bowman made some additions by subtraction (such as Evander Kane) and is hoping a combination of veteran additions like Andrew Mangiapane and an infusion of youth in players like Matthew Savoie can provide the secondary scoring the team needs behind Connor and Leon.
Edmonton’s top six defensemen are pretty terrific, especially with the emergence of Jake Walman. The goaltending is … well, the kind of thing that probably makes McDavid want to sign only a two-year extension. Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard, last seen being the evil of two lessers before a Stanley Cup Final elimination game, are back, and the Oilers hope former Utah goalie Connor Ingraham might be able to contribute at some point as well.
Kris Knoblauch has coached this team to a .656 points percentage in 151 regular-season games. There’s no reason to believe the Oilers can’t repeat that feat this season. On paper, this doesn’t look like a team destined for a third straight trip to the Stanley Cup Final, but it would be foolhardy to bet against McDavid and Draisaitl finding a way to get back there. And if they fall short … one down, two to go before Connor Watch begins again.
It’s a bit surprising to see the Golden Knights get so much support as a Stanley Cup favorite given that Alex Pietrangelo, their most important defenseman, will miss the season with a hip issue. But with Shea Theodore, Noah Hanifin, Brayden McNabb and Zach Whitecloud, they still have a stout top four on defense in front of Adin Hill and whoever will end up sharing the crease with him.
But the reason the Golden Knights have inspired this kind of buzz can be summed up in two words: Mitch and Marner. Imagine the feeling of being extracted from the Toronto pressure cooker to end up on Jack Eichel‘s wing — and imagine being Jack Eichel, lining up with a 100-point, 200-foot player who could elevate your game to unforeseen heights. Their line with Ivan Barbashev could reach juggernaut status. The same could be said for the Knights’ checking line: Reilly Smith and Mark Stone flanking William Karlsson. As the Panthers have shown in the past two seasons, it’s almost unfair to have a third line that good. (And that’s with no slight to the Knights’ second line, anchored by Tomas Hertl.)
The Western Conference is better when the Knights are swaggering villains. Landing Marner, the offseason’s top free agent prize, who has his share of detractors, has helped restock the bile reserves for Vegas.
I love Kings captain Anze Kopitar proclaiming that this season will be his last. Not only does it mean the NHL writ large can celebrate the legacy of one of the best two-way centers and best Slovenian player in league history — with apologies to Jan Mursak — but it means the Kings are going to be extra aggressive in trying to maximize their last year with him.
The Kings have enough offensive weaponry around Kopitar (10th in expected goals for at 5-on-5 last season) to thrive. Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala are both coming off 35-goal seasons, and Quinton Byfield has more to give. Imagine where their offense would have been with something better than the 27th-best power play in the NHL last season.
My concerns, beyond Jim Hiller’s atrocious decision-making in the playoffs: that the depth on their defense, including Cody Ceci and Joel Edmundson, is too ineffective and slow; that goalie Darcy Kuemper regresses from his Vezina-nominated season; and that GM Ken Holland’s peculiar first offseason as Kings GM negatively impacts the roster. But hey, he did sign Corey Perry, which obviously means the Kings will play for the Stanley Cup.
I have the Canucks in the playoffs because I’m taking the completely naïve approach that everything will work itself out. That Elias Pettersson can regain his 100-point form after a healthy offseason and with the toxins drained out of the Canucks’ locker room now that J.T. Miller is on the Rangers. That the Canucks have the good sense to pair Pettersson with a returning Brock Boeser. That Filip Chytil remains healthy enough. That Thatcher Demko remains healthy enough. That Quinn Hughes remains healthy enough and is a Norris finalist while — and this is the crucial part — wearing a Vancouver jersey this season instead of one with devil horns.
If all of these things happen, the Canucks are a playoff team. If half of them happen … well, maybe the Central gets five teams in the playoffs again this season.
In my bold predictions for the 2025-26 season, I said the Ducks would be in the playoff hunt until the last week of the race. I’m sticking to that. For better or worse, Joel Quenneville is back behind an NHL bench, and I’m confident he’s going to unlock something in players such as Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish and Jackson LaCombe that Greg Cronin failed to unleash. It’s a heavy lift for the Ducks to go from hapless defensive sieve to playoff bubble contender, and I’m putting a lot of faith in that influx of veteran talent — Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund included — to get this group of ducklings waddling in the right direction. Well, that and goalie Lukas Dostal continuing to progress toward franchise goaltender status.
The Flames shocked the league last season with a 96-point campaign that was a tiebreaker away from postseason qualification. They can thank Gilroy, California’s own Dustin Wolf for that, backstopping them to 29 wins in 53 games with a .910 save percentage, and finishing second in the voting for NHL rookie for the year. I’m still trying to figure out this magic trick, considering how utterly average the Flames were at 5-on-5 last season.
As has been the case since Matthew Tkachuk was traded, they’re a supporting cast in search of a star. Now they’re caught in a purgatory as some of their top names are aging out (Nazem Kadri, Mikael Backlund) while the next wave — like brilliant 19-year-old defenseman Zayne Parekh — needs some time to ripen. This could be a double-digit points decline, but the future is bright for the Flames.
I’ve seen projections that have the Kraken anywhere from 72 points to 84 points under new head coach Lane Lambert. I’ll take the lower end of that scale. I didn’t love the Kraken’s underlying offensive numbers last season (28th in expected goals for, 30th in scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5), and the Islanders were middle of the pack at best during his time as their head coach. It’s a middling team in need of a new direction under GM Jason Botterill. A robust trade deadline sale under a rising salary cap would be a good start.
Much like Macklin Celebrini had he remained at Boston University, the Sharks are entering their junior year of college. It’s still a party, it’s still a team that can be bad but fun, and we find it charming. Players such as Celebrini, Will Smith, William Eklund and Michael Misa can flaunt gaudy offensive stats without being overly concerned with their plus/minus deficit. They can spend one more year in the draft lottery — and wouldn’t Gavin McKenna look great on Celebrini’s wing? — before it’s time to graduate to something resembling playoff contention next season.
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