Olney: The X factors defining this year’s trade deadline
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Buster Olney
Teams are traditionally split into two camps leading up to the Major League Baseball trade deadline — those acquiring talent and those trading it away. But the addition of a third wild-card team for each league in 2022, which created a 12-team playoff field, has helped foster a third category: opportunists.
These clubs are on the fringe of contention, aiming to take advantage of a thin trade market by putting high asking prices on some of their players, hoping a desperate contender buys in — for maximum value.
Adders. Dealers. Opportunists.
This is just one of a number of developing conditions that are helping to form the 2025 trade market. Let’s dig into all the X factors that will rule this year’s July 31 deadline based on what executives around the league are saying.
1. There could be more opportunists this year.
The Milwaukee Brewers are hovering around .500 in an absolutely stacked National League, and even though they could be within range of the division lead in July, it would be with diminished hope if the Chicago Cubs continue to build on their strong start. Additionally, it might be unlikely that in an NL packed with playoff-caliber teams — the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves in the East, and the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks in the West — that Milwaukee could even win a wild-card spot. The Brewers have better chances of taking the NL Central (13%) than earning a wild-card berth (5.3%), according to Fangraphs.
This could lead to the Brewers doing what the Tampa Bay Rays did at the trade deadline last year — capitalize on there being so few dealers on the market. Freddy Peralta has been one of the league’s best starters this year, and he’s earning a very affordable $8 million this year, with Milwaukee holding an $8 million option for next season. If the Orioles landed him, he would instantly become their ace. For the Yankees, he could be a bedrock behind Max Fried and Carlos Rodon. If Peralta stays healthy, his value will never be higher than it is now.
The Rays were the opportunists of last summer, flipping Randy Arozarena to the Seattle Mariners with two-and-a-half years of team control remaining and trading Isaac Paredes to the Cubs despite trailing by just 1½ games for the third wild card on the last Sunday of July. Tampa Bay didn’t go into full sell mode; rather, it saw a stark trade market — “There are no good players available,” one executive said in the middle of last July — and capitalized.
It’s possible — maybe even likely — that the Brewers won’t choose this path. Owner Mark Attanasio is seen by his peers as competitive, someone who places a high value on making the playoffs. Some rival execs don’t believe Milwaukee would consider trading Peralta if the team is still within range of the Cubs, who are managed by former Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell.
But for some of the teams stuck amid the pack of contenders, it’s something worth considering:
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St. Louis Cardinals: They’re on a winning streak, and they’ve communicated to other teams that even if they aren’t a front-runner, they might keep their tradable players in what is the last season of John Mozeliak’s tenure as head of baseball operations.
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Minnesota Twins: They could dangle Byron Buxton, their dynamic and oft-injured center fielder, into the trade conversations. Buxton is healthy and playing well, and he’s under contract for the next three seasons at $15.1 million per year.
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Toronto Blue Jays: Now that they’ve signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to anchor their team for a long time, they could look at the best ways to shape a future around him, and weigh offers for players such as Chris Bassitt.
One exec working for a contender doesn’t believe the list of opportunists will be long.
“Usually, what they ask for is unrealistic,” he said. “They’ll ask for your four best prospects and you say no and they move on and keep the player.”
2. The general mediocrity of the American League could greatly reduce its number of dealers.
The Chicago White Sox are rebuilding and open for business, but the front office of any other team in the AL could convince itself that a playoff bid is possible — because it just seems like there are few, if any, great teams.
The Baltimore Orioles might be the best working example of this phenomenon. The start of the season has been disastrous for Baltimore, which has a rotation that has been pummeled regularly. But it’s hard to imagine the Orioles surrendering early, given their success of the past two seasons and their roster of young position players. So, they could be a club that is unwilling to part ways with talent at the deadline, even if they have a losing record.
3. The teams already viewed as potential subtractors might not have the talent contenders want.
Clubs such as the Colorado Rockies, Miami Marlins and White Sox don’t have much to offer in the eyes of rival evaluators. Other teams have monitored Marlins righty Sandy Alcantara and White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr., but both are struggling early in the season. Alcantara has an 8.42 ERA in seven starts since his return from elbow surgery, while Robert’s early slash line is .186/.293/.326, which doesn’t boost other teams’ interest — nor the leverage of the White Sox.
4. It appears the market for outfielders will be very thin.
Typically, the upcoming free agent class serves as a tool to define most of the players who could be traded before that year’s deadline — and quite simply, in the outfield, the pickings beyond Kyle Tucker are few.
The would-be opportunists could take advantage of a really soft outfield market and get value if they’re willing to dangle outfielders under team control beyond this season. For example, the Twins could set a solid price for Buxton and the Jays would probably draw a lot of interest for Daulton Varsho, an elite defender who won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2026 season.
5. Very few good starting pitchers are expected to be available.
If the Cardinals decide to deal players, right-hander Erick Fedde, who has a 3.86 ERA this season, could draw some interest. Fellow right-handed starter Sonny Gray is a three-time All-Star, but his contract is very backloaded — he’s owed $35 million in 2026 — and the last time he was traded to a contender midseason (from the Athletics to New York Yankees in 2017), it did not go well.
6. A Nolan Arenado trade could still be possible.
Conditions are emerging to foster this possibility, if Arenado waives his no-trade clause and if the Cardinals are willing to deal him. Normally, it’s not easy to move a position player with money attached at midseason, but contenders could be interested in acquiring the eight-time All-Star third baseman. The Cubs haven’t found a solution at third base, and the Yankees will soon try DJ LeMahieu in their ongoing attempt to fill the position. The Los Angeles Dodgers waited last season for Max Muncy to turn around a slow start, and he eventually did; this year, they’re waiting again.
Arenado, who killed a possible trade to the Houston Astros last winter, is owed about $24 million for the rest of this year, $27 million in 2026 ($5 million paid by the Rockies) and $15 million in 2027.
There has been no shortage of excitement already this NHL offseason. Following the Florida Panthers‘ second consecutive Stanley Cup championship — and seemingly never-ending celebration — the annual period of roster modification has begun.
The 2025 NHL draft included 224 prospects finding new homes, and the weekend included trades for Noah Dobson, Charlie Coyle and John Gibson. On Monday, a slew of re-signings, and the trade of Mitch Marner, took several big names off the free agent big board.
Below you will find our continuously updated free agency tracker for 2025, featuring a list of every player signed, including average annual value of the contract in most cases. Analysis of the biggest deals can be found here.
Note that the newest deals are on top, denoted by date.
Draft recap: All 224 picks
Grades for all 32 teams
Winners and losers
July 2
Salmon Arm, British Columbia, native Curtis Lazar is headed back to Western Canada, agreeing to terms on a one-year, $775,000 contract with the Oilers.
Veteran winger Anthony Mantha has made the rounds in recent seasons, and his next NHL home is in Pittsburgh, inking a one-year, $2.5 million pact.
July 1
After a brief stint for an American-based team, Andrew Mangiapane is back in Western Canada, inking a two-year, $3.6 million AAV deal with the Oilers.
Forward Justin Brazeau has chosen the Penguins as his next NHL destination, inking a two-year, $1.5 million AAV contract.
The Devils continued adding to their forward depth, adding veteran scoring winger Evgenii Dadonov via a one-year, $1 million deal.
The July 1 goalie rush continues. The Mammoth are the latest team to make an addition in the crease, inking Stanley Cup champion Vitek Vanecek via a one-year, $1.5 million deal.
Offensive defenseman John Klingberg is headed to San Jose, agreeing to terms on a one-year, $4 million pact with the Sharks.
One of the top remaining free agents available, veteran forward Mikael Granlund has landed with the Ducks on a three-year deal.
Veteran bottom-six forward Lars Eller has chosen the Senators as his next team, agreeing to terms on a one-year, $1.25 million deal.
The Penguins have extended their business relationships with Philip Tomasino (one year, $1.75 million) and Connor Dewar (one year, $1.1 million).
As part of the effort to retake the title of Florida’s best hockey team, the Lightning have inked Pontus Holmberg to a two-year, $1.55 million AAV contract.
The Wild have added Nico Sturm. The former Panther has signed a two-year, $2 million AAV contract.
The Sabres have entered the chat! The club’s first big deal of the day is inking goaltender Alex Lyon to a two-year, $1.5 million AAV contract.
The Kraken add to their goaltending depth, adding former Stanley Cup winner Matt Murray on a one-year, $1 million contract.
The Islanders had themselves a great draft weekend, and they continue the momentum in free agency, adding veteran forward Jonathan Drouin on a two-year, $4 million AAV deal.
The Stars are on the board. Hours after announcing the official hiring of Glen Gulutzan as the club’s new head coach, the Stars have brought back forward Radek Faksa on a two-year, $3 million AAV contract.
Earlier on Tuesday the Kings lost defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov to the Rangers. To help fill that blue-line gap, they signed Cody Ceci (four years, $4.5 million AAV) and Brian Dumoulin (three years, $4 million AAV). They also signed goaltender Anton Forsberg for two years, $2.25 million AAV.
Defenseman Nick Perbix has thus far only known NHL life as a member of the Lightning. He’ll head to Nashville next, agreeing to a two-year, $2.75 million AAV deal with the Predators.
The Panthers have gone to the veteran defenseman well again, signing Jeff Petry to a one-year, $775,000 contract.
Fresh off a Stanley Cup with the Panthers, defenseman Nate Schmidt is joining the Mammoth by way of a three-year, $3.5 million AAV contract.
The NHL career of James van Riemsdyk will continue, as he has agreed to terms with the Red Wings on a one-year, $1 million deal. Separately, the Wings added Jacob Bernard-Docker on a one-year, $875,000 contract.
The Bruins add to their depth, agreeing to terms with Sean Kuraly on a two-year, $1.85 million AAV pact.
Another key member of the Panthers’ championship roster is returning. Veteran forward Tomas Nosek has agreed to a one-year deal.
After completing the 2024-25 season with the Jets, veteran forward Brandon Tanev is sticking in the Central Division, but heading to Utah by way of a three-year, $2.5 million AAV deal.
Take another goalie’s name off the big board! Kaapo Kahkonen has agreed to terms with the Canadiens on a one-year deal worth $1.15 million. In a separate deal, the club also signed forward Sammy Blais.
The winner of the 2020 Hobey Baker Award as the top player in NCAA men’s hockey, defenseman Scott Perunovich has signed a one-year deal with the Mammoth.
In need of some backup goaltending depth, the Islanders agreed to terms with “Big Save” Dave Rittich on a one-year deal.
Diminutive, versatile forward Kailer Yamamoto is the latest player added by the Mammoth, by way of a one-year, $775,000 pact.
Veteran center Nick Bjugstad has made his decision: He’s joining the Blues by way of a two-year contract.
Veteran defenseman Ryan Lindgren finished the 2024-25 season with the Avalanche, and he’ll head northwest for his next NHL home, agreeing to terms on a four-year, $4.5 million AAV contract.
The Senators haven’t been able to lure any new free agents to the club yet, but their re-signing game remains strong. After re-upping with Claude Giroux, the Sens also continued their business relationship with Nick Cousins via a one-year, $825,000 pact.
Sure to be a fan favorite in Beantown, veteran forward Tanner Jeannot has agreed to terms on a five-year contract with the Bruins, with a $3.4 million AAV.
A sixth-round pick in the 2016 draft, winger Michael Pezzetta is going from Montreal to Toronto via a two-year, $787,500 AAV contract.
Connor Brown impressed a lot of viewers with inspired play during the Oilers’ run to the Stanley Cup Final. Now, he’ll bring that energy to the Devils, who have signed him to a four-year, $3 million AAV contract.
The defenseman market is one key player smaller, as the Rangers have agreed to terms with Vladislav Gavrikov on a seven-year, $7 million AAV contract.
One of the top goaltending options available is off the board, with Dan Vladar joining the Flyers via a two-year, $3.35 million AAV contract.
Veteran feisty forward Corey Perry is switching sides in the Oilers-Kings rivalry, agreeing to terms on a one-year deal with salary and bonuses worth $3.5 million. Separately, the Kings also signed veteran forward Joel Armia to a two-year deal with a $2.5 million AAV.
One of the top available free agents has made a decision … and he’ll be re-signing. Brock Boeser is back with the Canucks by way of a seven-year, $7.3 million AAV contract.
Parker Kelly will continue his career with the Avalanche, agreeing to terms on a four-year contract with a $1.7 million AAV.
Veteran forward Colin Blackwell will be returning to the Stars, agreeing to terms on a two-year deal with a $775,000 AAV.
Christian Dvorak has moved on from the Canadiens, agreeing to a one-year, $5.4 million contract with the Flyers.
Noah Juulsen, welcome to Philly! The Flyers have inked the 28-year-old defenseman to a one-year, $900,000 deal.
Defenseman Ryan Johnson is sticking with the Sabres, agreeing to terms on a three-year deal with a $775,000 AAV.
The top-rated goaltender slated to hit free agency this offseason will not make it to market; Jake Allen is back with the Devils via a five-year contract with a $1.8 million AAV.
Veteran offensive defenseman Tony DeAngelo will be back with the Islanders for 2025-26, agreeing to terms on a one-year, $1.75 million contract.
June 30
The Red Wings will be continuing their relationship with veteran forward Patrick Kane, inking a one-year, $3 million extension.
The band is getting back together. After re-upping with Sam Bennett last week, the Panthers re-signed both Aaron Ekblad and Brad Marchand on Monday.
Rumors of a Mitch Marner trade popped up during draft weekend, and they came to fruition Monday, as the Maple Leafs inked Marner to an eight-year, $12 million average annual value extension, then traded him to the Golden Knights for Nicolas Roy.
The Oilers will not be allowing one of their promising young players to leave via offer sheet, as they signed restricted free agent defenseman Evan Bouchard to a four-year, $10.5 million AAV contract.
Veteran defenseman Ivan Provorov would have been one of the most sought-after blueliners on the free agent market. Instead, he’ll be back with the Blue Jackets for the foreseeable future, agreeing to a seven-year, $8.5 million AAV deal.
George Springer had a career-high seven RBIs, including his ninth grand slam, and the Toronto Blue Jays celebrated Canada Day by beating the Yankees 12-5 on Tuesday and closing within one game of American League East-leading New York.
The seven RBIs are tied for the second most by any Blue Jays player in a home game, behind Edwin Encarnación (nine RBIs in 2015), according to ESPN Research.
Andrés Giménez had a go-ahead, three-run homer for the Blue Jays, who overcame a 2-0 deficit against Max Fried. After the Yankees tied the score 4-4 in the seventh, Toronto broke open the game in the bottom half against a reeling Yankees bullpen.
Springer went 3-for-4, starting the comeback with a solo homer in the fourth against Fried and boosting the lead to 9-5 with the slam off Luke Weaver after Ernie Clement‘s go-ahead single off shortstop Anthony Volpe‘s glove. Springer has 13 homers this season.
Toronto won the first two games of the four-game series and closed within one game of the Yankees for the first time since before play on April 20.
New York went 2-for-17 with runners in scoring position, dropping to 3-for-24 in the series, while the Blue Jays were 5-for-7. After going 13-14 in June, the Yankees fell to 10-14 against AL East rivals.
The Associate Press contributed to this report.
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