Olney: The X factors defining this year’s trade deadline
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Buster Olney
Teams are traditionally split into two camps leading up to the Major League Baseball trade deadline — those acquiring talent and those trading it away. But the addition of a third wild-card team for each league in 2022, which created a 12-team playoff field, has helped foster a third category: opportunists.
These clubs are on the fringe of contention, aiming to take advantage of a thin trade market by putting high asking prices on some of their players, hoping a desperate contender buys in — for maximum value.
Adders. Dealers. Opportunists.
This is just one of a number of developing conditions that are helping to form the 2025 trade market. Let’s dig into all the X factors that will rule this year’s July 31 deadline based on what executives around the league are saying.
1. There could be more opportunists this year.
The Milwaukee Brewers are hovering around .500 in an absolutely stacked National League, and even though they could be within range of the division lead in July, it would be with diminished hope if the Chicago Cubs continue to build on their strong start. Additionally, it might be unlikely that in an NL packed with playoff-caliber teams — the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves in the East, and the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks in the West — that Milwaukee could even win a wild-card spot. The Brewers have better chances of taking the NL Central (13%) than earning a wild-card berth (5.3%), according to Fangraphs.
This could lead to the Brewers doing what the Tampa Bay Rays did at the trade deadline last year — capitalize on there being so few dealers on the market. Freddy Peralta has been one of the league’s best starters this year, and he’s earning a very affordable $8 million this year, with Milwaukee holding an $8 million option for next season. If the Orioles landed him, he would instantly become their ace. For the Yankees, he could be a bedrock behind Max Fried and Carlos Rodon. If Peralta stays healthy, his value will never be higher than it is now.
The Rays were the opportunists of last summer, flipping Randy Arozarena to the Seattle Mariners with two-and-a-half years of team control remaining and trading Isaac Paredes to the Cubs despite trailing by just 1½ games for the third wild card on the last Sunday of July. Tampa Bay didn’t go into full sell mode; rather, it saw a stark trade market — “There are no good players available,” one executive said in the middle of last July — and capitalized.
It’s possible — maybe even likely — that the Brewers won’t choose this path. Owner Mark Attanasio is seen by his peers as competitive, someone who places a high value on making the playoffs. Some rival execs don’t believe Milwaukee would consider trading Peralta if the team is still within range of the Cubs, who are managed by former Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell.
But for some of the teams stuck amid the pack of contenders, it’s something worth considering:
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St. Louis Cardinals: They’re on a winning streak, and they’ve communicated to other teams that even if they aren’t a front-runner, they might keep their tradable players in what is the last season of John Mozeliak’s tenure as head of baseball operations.
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Minnesota Twins: They could dangle Byron Buxton, their dynamic and oft-injured center fielder, into the trade conversations. Buxton is healthy and playing well, and he’s under contract for the next three seasons at $15.1 million per year.
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Toronto Blue Jays: Now that they’ve signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to anchor their team for a long time, they could look at the best ways to shape a future around him, and weigh offers for players such as Chris Bassitt.
One exec working for a contender doesn’t believe the list of opportunists will be long.
“Usually, what they ask for is unrealistic,” he said. “They’ll ask for your four best prospects and you say no and they move on and keep the player.”
2. The general mediocrity of the American League could greatly reduce its number of dealers.
The Chicago White Sox are rebuilding and open for business, but the front office of any other team in the AL could convince itself that a playoff bid is possible — because it just seems like there are few, if any, great teams.
The Baltimore Orioles might be the best working example of this phenomenon. The start of the season has been disastrous for Baltimore, which has a rotation that has been pummeled regularly. But it’s hard to imagine the Orioles surrendering early, given their success of the past two seasons and their roster of young position players. So, they could be a club that is unwilling to part ways with talent at the deadline, even if they have a losing record.
3. The teams already viewed as potential subtractors might not have the talent contenders want.
Clubs such as the Colorado Rockies, Miami Marlins and White Sox don’t have much to offer in the eyes of rival evaluators. Other teams have monitored Marlins righty Sandy Alcantara and White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr., but both are struggling early in the season. Alcantara has an 8.42 ERA in seven starts since his return from elbow surgery, while Robert’s early slash line is .186/.293/.326, which doesn’t boost other teams’ interest — nor the leverage of the White Sox.
4. It appears the market for outfielders will be very thin.
Typically, the upcoming free agent class serves as a tool to define most of the players who could be traded before that year’s deadline — and quite simply, in the outfield, the pickings beyond Kyle Tucker are few.
The would-be opportunists could take advantage of a really soft outfield market and get value if they’re willing to dangle outfielders under team control beyond this season. For example, the Twins could set a solid price for Buxton and the Jays would probably draw a lot of interest for Daulton Varsho, an elite defender who won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2026 season.
5. Very few good starting pitchers are expected to be available.
If the Cardinals decide to deal players, right-hander Erick Fedde, who has a 3.86 ERA this season, could draw some interest. Fellow right-handed starter Sonny Gray is a three-time All-Star, but his contract is very backloaded — he’s owed $35 million in 2026 — and the last time he was traded to a contender midseason (from the Athletics to New York Yankees in 2017), it did not go well.
6. A Nolan Arenado trade could still be possible.
Conditions are emerging to foster this possibility, if Arenado waives his no-trade clause and if the Cardinals are willing to deal him. Normally, it’s not easy to move a position player with money attached at midseason, but contenders could be interested in acquiring the eight-time All-Star third baseman. The Cubs haven’t found a solution at third base, and the Yankees will soon try DJ LeMahieu in their ongoing attempt to fill the position. The Los Angeles Dodgers waited last season for Max Muncy to turn around a slow start, and he eventually did; this year, they’re waiting again.
Arenado, who killed a possible trade to the Houston Astros last winter, is owed about $24 million for the rest of this year, $27 million in 2026 ($5 million paid by the Rockies) and $15 million in 2027.
BROOKLYN, Mich. — Denny Hamlin is unfazed that a three-judge federal appellate panel vacated an injunction that required NASCAR to recognize 23XI, which he owns with Michael Jordan, and Front Row as chartered teams as part of an antitrust lawsuit.
“That’s just such a small part of the entire litigation,” Hamlin said Saturday, a day ahead of the FireKeepers Casino 400. “I’m not deterred at all. We’re in good shape.”
Hamlin said Jordan feels the same way.
“He just remains very confident, just like I do,” Hamiln said.
NASCAR has not commented on the latest ruling.
23XI and Front Row sued NASCAR late last year after refusing to sign new agreements on charter renewals. They asked for a temporary injunction that would recognize them as chartered teams for this season, but the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals in Richmond, Virginia, on Thursday ruled in NASCAR’s favor.
“We’re looking at all options right now,” Hamlin said.
The teams, each winless this year, said they needed the injunction because the current charter agreement prohibits them from suing NASCAR. 23XI also argued it would be harmed because Tyler Reddick’s contract would have made him a free agent if the team could not guarantee him a charter-protected car.
Hamlin insisted he’s not worried about losing drivers because of the uncertainty.
“I’m not focused on that particularly right this second,” he said.
Reddick, who was last year’s regular-season champion and competed for the Cup title in November, enters the race Sunday at Michigan ranked sixth in the Cup Series standings.
The charter system is similar to franchises in other sports, but the charters are revocable by NASCAR and have expiration dates.
The six teams may have to compete as “open” cars and would have to qualify on speed each week to make the race and would receive a fraction of the money.
Without a charter, Hamlin said it would cost the teams “tens of millions,” to run three cars.
“We’re committed to run this season open if we have to,” he said. “We’re going to race and fulfill all of our commitments no matter what. We’re here to race. Our team is going to be here for the long haul and we’re confident of that.”
The antitrust case isn’t scheduled to be heard until December.
NASCAR has not said what it would do with the six charters held by the two organizations if they are returned to the sanctioning body. There are 36 chartered cars for a 40-car field.
“We feel like facts were on our side,” Hamlin said. “I think if you listen to the judges, even they mentioned that we might be in pretty good shape.”
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