Which two teams will make it to the Stanley Cup Final? Ryan S. Clark and Kristen Shilton are here with intel on all four teams, including goaltender confidence ratings, what we’ve learned so far about each team, X factors and more.
How they got here: Defeated Avalanche 4-3, defeated Jets 4-2
Goalie confidence rating: 9/10
Think about the number of teams that have had to shuffle through goaltenders this postseason — whether because of injuries or inconsistencies. It’s part of what makes Jake Oettinger so vital for the Stars.
No goalie has faced more shots, made more saves and logged more minutes than Oettinger during the 2025 playoffs. Oettinger has provided the Stars with a level of stability that has played a major role in why they’ve advanced to a third straight conference final. He has had several moments this postseason in which his value has been amplified. Maybe the strongest example of that would be the fact that the Stars are 3-0 in overtime, with two of those wins coming in series-clinching games.
What we’ve learned about the Stars so far
Other than that it was worth mortgaging the future to trade for and sign Mikko Rantanen, one of the best wingers in the game, to a long-term contract — and then watch him become the front-runner to win the Conn Smythe?
It’s the fact that the Stars have shown they are adaptable. They opened the first round with questions about getting past the Avalanche given that two of their best players, Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson, were out injured. Even now as they’re in the conference finals, the Stars have yet to receive consistent offensive contributions from certain players (see below), and their depth could be greatly tested against what might be the deepest team in the playoffs.
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Thomas Harley sends Stars to West finals with OT winner
The Dallas Stars crowd goes wild as Thomas Harley’s goal seals a 2-1 overtime win to clinch the series over the Winnipeg Jets.
X factor for the conference finals
Will it be the 81% — or will the 19% make its mark? There’s a reason for such a cryptic question, and it comes back to how scoring has worked for the Stars this postseason.
Keep in mind they are heading into a series against a defensive structure that shut out the Vegas Golden Knights for two straight games. Again, depth will matter.
Has the experience of the past two years prepared the Stars to take the next step?
A third straight conference finals appearance reaffirms that the Stars are in a championship window. But is this the year in which the Stars reach the Stanley Cup Final and possibly win it all?
The first of their three trips, in 2023, let them learn what it meant to win in overtime given they lost two games to the Golden Knights in the extra frame. Their second trip — last season against the Oilers — saw them struggle to find consistency against a team that could use the whole of its parts after falling into a 2-1 series hole.
This postseason has included winning multiple overtime games, finally winning the first game of a series, fending off an opponent trying to force a Game 7, managing without two of their best players and extending Peter DeBoer’s Game 7 streak to 9-0. But will all of that be enough? — Clark
Everything the Oilers’ defensive structure accomplished in the regular season was met with the disconnect of inconsistent goaltending. It appeared to be an issue through the first two games of the playoffs, which is why Kris Knoblauch had Calvin Pickard replace Stuart Skinner en route to beating the Kings in the opening round.
But when Pickard sustained an injury, Skinner returned … and shut out the Golden Knights for the final two games of the second round. For all of the criticism Skinner has faced — and continues to face — he has the Oilers four wins away from a second consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearance. But above all, whether it be Pickard or Skinner, the Oilers now have the defensive cohesion that has eluded them at times, which is helpful to any netminder.
What we’ve learned about the Oilers so far
That they might be the best and deepest team in the playoffs. There’s no denying the advantage they have with Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, who are first and second on the team in points this postseason. But this current iteration of the Oilers continues to prove how they are more than just their generational superstars.
Waiver pickup Kasperi Kapanen went from being a healthy scratch at the outset of the postseason to scoring a second-round series-clinching goal. Corey Perry has had one of the strongest playoffs by a player in their age-39 season. More than a dozen forwards have scored at least one goal.
The Oilers once again went through goalie issues, and found solutions on multiple occasions. In total, they have nine players who have scored more than three goals, all while finding defensive cohesion at a time when Mattias Ekholm has been out of the lineup.
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Oilers call series after Kasperi Kapanen scores OT winner
Kasperi Kapanen somehow gets his stick on the puck last on a scramble in overtime as the Oilers clinch the series vs. the Golden Knights.
X factor for the conference finals
Special teams. The Oilers had the best penalty kill in the 2024 playoffs, at 94%, which is one of the best rates in Stanley Cup playoff history. Couple that with what was the second-best power play, and it’s what made the Oilers a threat in every situation last spring.
This postseason, however, has been different. On the whole, their power play is still succeeding at a rate of 25%, which is good enough for sixth among all 16 playoff teams. Their penalty kill is 14th, at 66.7% — by far the worst of the remaining four teams.
Can they make the necessary adjustments? They had the worst power play of any team in the second round, with a 9.1% success rate on the extra-skater advantage, while their PK was tied for the second-lowest mark of the eight teams, at 76.9%.
Is the series win over the Golden Knights a sign of things to come?
The Oilers earned a return to the conference finals by tapping into every part of their roster. But one of the byproducts of using everyone is how they’ve reduced opponents into facing a depth crisis of their own.
The Golden Knights had 11 players finish with more than 10 goals in the regular season, while 11 players had more than 30 points. Against the Oilers, however, star center Jack Eichel was held without a goal, while the trio of Ivan Barbashev, Tomas Hertl and Brett Howden went from scoring a combined 78 goals in the regular season to scoring zero against Edmonton. Even the Golden Knights’ defensemen went from having 35 goals in the regular season to just one goal in the playoffs.
Knowing they have a more than capable blueprint, how will the Oilers use what they did in the second round against what has been a top-heavy Stars team to this point? — Clark
How they got here: Defeated Devils 4-1, defeated Capitals 4-1
Goalie confidence rating: 9.5/10
Frederik Andersen is having an eye-popping playoff run. His absurd numbers — a .937 save percentage and 1.36 goals-against average — lead the entire postseason field of goaltenders, as he has allowed just 12 goals over nine games. And it’s not like Andersen hasn’t been challenged. He turned aside 30 of 31 high-danger chances from Washington in Carolina’s second-round series, and gave up just four even-strength goals in five games.
Andersen also paces all playoff goalies in high-danger saves, while boasting the best goal differential (+15) as well. Basically, if there’s a category to measure goaltending greatness, Andersen is head of the class.
Carolina’s only real concern when it comes to Andersen is availability — he did miss time in the first round against New Jersey with an injury. Andersen’s lengthy injury history has to be in the back of the Hurricanes’ minds, but when Andersen is good to go, there’s not a goaltender playing better than he is right now.
What we’ve learned about the Hurricanes so far
The Hurricanes are like midsummer humidity — absolutely smothering. Carolina’s pressure is a full-team effort, leaving little open ice for any opponent to operate. The Canes have allowed the second-fewest shots on net this postseason (just 24 per game) thanks in large part to the way they have controlled play in the offensive zone and generated an excellent cycle game that has worn down the competition.
The Hurricanes are so good using their sticks to break up plays and rush opportunities, making it hard to even gain their zone. And a stout defense — led by Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns — doesn’t let anyone linger for long in Carolina’s end.
Add to that an offensive attack led by Andrei Svechnikov‘s eight goals in 10 games — not to mention Andersen’s outstanding performance so far — and it’s no wonder the Hurricanes were first to punch their ticket back to the Eastern Conference finals.
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Andrei Svechnikov puts Canes on the brink with late goal
Andrei Svechnikov lights the lamp to give the Hurricanes a lead late in the third period.
X factor for the conference finals
Rod Brind’Amour. Carolina’s longtime coach brought his team to this precipice just two years ago — and they were swept away in four games. Now he’s facing the challenge of matching wits with another Stanley Cup-winning bench boss, Florida’s Paul Maurice, and it’s critical that Brind’Amour bring his A game.
The Hurricanes have stuck with him for a reason, and Brind’Amour has guided Carolina through a sensational 10 games to date this postseason. This is when the real work starts, though. Whether it’s deploying the right matchups, making adjustments on the fly or simply keeping the pulse of his team in check, Brind’Amour has to make this round his best coaching job yet. And the experience he has with this group in particular is critical.
The Hurricanes have grown since that last conference finals loss. Given this second opportunity in three years to potentially push through to a Stanley Cup Final, Brind’Amour’s leadership is more valuable than ever in ensuring the Hurricanes stick to their game to finally break through.
Does it matter that Carolina hasn’t exactly faced adversity yet in the postseason?
The Hurricanes were dominant in both series to date. Neither of their losses were particularly egregious. Now they’re up against an opponent that has had to claw its way back into the fight a time or two.
Florida has needed to cultivate some desperation in a way Carolina hasn’t, and that can be an asset as the stakes climb higher. How will the Hurricanes respond if things don’t immediately go their way?
We’ve seen it before, where teams cruise through a round (or two) and then crumble against a more urgent opponent that has gained confidence through resiliency. If the Hurricanes wind up in their own heads, that could spell trouble for a team that has made quick work of its playoff assignments to this point. — Shilton
Sergei Bobrovsky hasn’t had a flawless postseason — but he does come through in the clutch. That’s what Florida needed most from its No. 1 netminder to reach a third straight Eastern Conference finals.
Bobrovsky especially delivered in the Panthers’ second-round series against Toronto. He recovered from a mediocre start through the first three games — allowing 13 total goals — to give up just four goals in Games 4-7 for a .957% SV% and 1.01 GAA.
That’s the momentum Bobrovsky is taking into this latest clash with Carolina, where he’ll be going toe-to-toe with perhaps this postseason’s best goaltender in Frederik Andersen. Bobrovsky shouldn’t be intimidated by the matchup, though. He has something Andersen doesn’t: Cup-winning experience. Bobrovsky has carried his club through to consecutive Cup Finals and knows how to weather the highs and lows of a long run like this. There’s nothing the Hurricanes can throw at Bobrovsky that should rattle him.
What we’ve learned about the Panthers so far
The Panthers are the definition of killer instinct. It’s ingrained in their game. Their ability to make adjustments that expose an opponent’s weakness without sacrificing their own strengths is impressive.
So is Florida’s depth. The Panthers have had 17 goal scorers in the postseason, including seven defensemen who have combined for 11 tallies. Florida is fourth overall in the postseason field offensively (averaging 3.75 goals per game) but its defensive effort and penalty kill have perhaps outshined the work upfront.
The Panthers have been the second-stingiest team in the playoffs (after, naturally, their next foe in Carolina) with just 2.42 goals against per game, they’ve given up the second-fewest shots (23.8 per game) and they have the second-best penalty kill (89.5%).
Florida has a resilience built from its success over the past two seasons that comes through in the team’s confidence. Regardless of the situation — leading, tied or trailing — the Panthers are calm and collected. The balance they’ve created at both ends of the ice makes Florida tough to crack, and the Panthers don’t offer up opportunities freely. It’s a battle-tested group that knows when and how to strike.
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Panthers throttle Maple Leafs in Game 7 to advance to ECF
The Panthers dash the Maple Leafs’ hopes in Game 7, scoring six goals in two periods to advance to play the Hurricanes.
X factor for the conference finals
The Panthers have benefitted from that aforementioned depth to get this far — but Florida’s stars were eerily quiet in the second round. That needs to change against Carolina.
Matthew Tkachuk had zero goals and four assists against the Leafs, Aleksander Barkov nabbed two goals and five points, while Sam Reinhart has 41 shots in the postseason but just four goals through 12 games. It feels like there could be a breakout performance coming from somewhere.
The Panthers will have to work for every inch of open ice when the Hurricanes deploy their suffocating defense, but the Panthers do have an edge over the competition in terms of elite, top-end scoring talent. But it’s those exact skaters who have to show up for Florida now, in order to throw an elite goaltender like Andersen off his game.
The Panthers do an excellent job getting bodies in front of the net and creating shooting lanes. This is the series where they’ll most need to take advantage of those windows — and see certain skaters put their mark on this postseason push with some key contributions to the scoresheet.
Will Florida have to beat Carolina at its own game?
The Hurricanes and Panthers are essentially 1-2 in every defensive category this postseason, and their special teams are on par. Florida has the edge offensively, but Carolina has enjoyed timely scoring in a big way — think Andrei Svechnikov‘s game-winning goal in the final two minutes of regulation to send Washington packing in the second round — and that can be a weapon too.
The Panthers have an innate ability to adapt when the circumstances dictate it. That’s going to be imperative here. The Panthers pounded Carolina in a four-game sweep during their meeting in the conference finals two years ago. That’s not something the Hurricanes can easily forget, and Florida can lean on that too in figuring out how to dismantle a Carolina team that has made quick work of its first two challengers in these playoffs.
It’s on Florida to crack the code against a team that does many of the same things the Panthers do really, really well. — Shilton
Backed by a raucous crowd of 40,895 at Wrigley Field, Chicago used its stellar defense to advance in the postseason for the first time since 2017. Michael Busch hit a solo homer, and Jameson Taillon pitched four shutout innings before manager Craig Counsell used five relievers to close it out.
“This group’s battle-tested,” Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson said. “This group can grind it out. This group never backs down from and shies away from anything. This is such an amazing thing to be a part of.”
Next up for Chicago is a matchup with the NL Central champion Brewers in a compelling division series, beginning with Game 1 on Saturday in Milwaukee.
Counsell managed the Brewers for nine years before he was hired by the Cubs in November 2023, and he has been lustily booed in Milwaukee ever since he departed.
“It’s going to be a great atmosphere,” Counsell said. “It’s Cubs-Brewers. That’s going to be as good as it gets. It’s always a great atmosphere when the two teams play each other.”
It was another painful ending for San Diego after it made the postseason for the fourth time in six years but fell short of a pennant again. The Padres forced a decisive Game 3 with a 3-0 victory on Wednesday, but their biggest stars flopped in the series finale.
“There’s a lot of hurt guys in that clubhouse, but we left it all out on the field, and there’s no regrets on anybody’s part,” manager Mike Shildt said. “Just disappointed.”
Tatis went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, including a fly ball to right that stranded runners on second and third in the fifth. Machado, who hit a two-run homer in Game 2, bounced to shortstop Swanson for the final out of the eighth, leaving a runner at third.
“It’s not fun at all. We definitely missed an opportunity,” Tatis said.
Darvish also struggled against his former team. The Japanese right-hander was pulled after the first four Cubs batters reached in the second inning, capped by the first of Crow-Armstrong’s three hits.
Jeremiah Estrada came in and issued a bases-loaded walk to Swanson, handing the Cubs a 2-0 lead. Estrada limited the damage by striking out Matt Shaw before Busch bounced into an inning-ending double play.
Taillon allowed two hits and struck out four. Caleb Thielbar got two outs before Daniel Palencia wiggled out of a fifth-inning jam while earning his second win of the series. Drew Pomeranz managed the seventh before Keller worked the eighth.
The Cubs supported their bullpen with another solid day in the field. Swanson made a slick play on Luis Arraez‘s leadoff grounder in the sixth, and then turned an inning-ending double play following a walk to Machado.
Crow-Armstrong, who went 0-for-6 with five strikeouts in the first two games, robbed Machado of a hit with a sliding catch in center in the first.
“It’s just the next step for us,” Busch said. “You set out a goal before each and every year to do stuff like this, and you celebrate it, and it’s been fun to celebrate and continue to celebrate it tonight, but there’s a lot of work ahead.”
NEW YORK — Rookie right-hander Cam Schlittler struck out 12 in eight dominant innings and the New York Yankees beat the Boston Red Sox4-0 on Thursday night to win their AL Wild Card Series in a deciding third game.
Taking his place in Yankees-Red Sox rivalry lore, the 24-year-old Schlittler overpowered Boston with 100 mph heat in his 15th major league start and pitched New York into a best-of-five division series against American League East champion Toronto beginning Saturday.
“A star is born tonight. He’s a special kid, man,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “He is not afraid. He expects this.”
Amed Rosario and Anthony Volpe each had an RBI single in a four-run fourth as New York became the first team to lose the opener of a best-of-three wild-card series and come back to advance since Major League Baseball expanded the first round in 2022.
“It felt like the most pressure-packed game I’ve ever experienced — World Series, clinching games, whatever,” Boone said.
Schlittler, who debuted in the majors July 9, grew up a Red Sox fan in Walpole, Massachusetts — but has said several times he wanted to play for the Yankees. He had faced Boston only once before, as a freshman at Northeastern in a 2020 spring training exhibition.
Ex-Yankees great Andy Pettitte gave Schlittler one piece of advice Wednesday: Get a good night’s sleep.
“I woke up and I was locked in, so I knew exactly what I needed to do to go out there, especially against my hometown team,” Schlittler said.
He outpitched Connelly Early, a 23-year-old left-hander who debuted Sept. 9 and became Boston’s youngest postseason starting pitcher since 21-year-old Babe Ruth in 1916.
Schlittler struck out two more than any other Yankees pitcher had in his postseason debut, allowing just five singles and walking none. He threw 11 pitches 100 mph or faster — including six in the first inning, one more than all Yankees pitchers had combined for previously since pitch tracking started in 2008.
Schlittler threw 75 of 107 pitches for strikes, starting 22 of 29 batters with strikes and topping out at 100.8 mph. David Bednar worked around a leadoff walk in the ninth as the Red Sox failed to advance a runner past second base.
Bucky Dent threw out the ceremonial first pitch on the 47th anniversary of his go-ahead, three-run homer for New York at Fenway Park in an AL East tiebreaker game, and the Yankees went on to vanquish their longtime rivals the way they often used to.
New York, which arrived packed for a late-night flight to Toronto, won its second straight after losing eight of nine postseason meetings with Boston dating to 2004 and edged ahead 14-13 in postseason games between the teams. The Red Sox cost themselves in the fourth with a defense that committed a big league-high 116 errors during the regular season.
New York’s rally began when Cody Bellinger hit a soft fly into the triangle between center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela, right fielder Wilyer Abreu and second baseman Romy González. The ball fell just in front of Rafaela, 234 feet from home plate, as Bellinger hustled into second with a double.
Giancarlo Stanton walked on a full count and with one out Rosario grounded a single into left, just past diving shortstop Trevor Story, to drive in Bellinger with the first run.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s single loaded the bases, and Volpe hit a grounder just past González, who had been shifted toward second, and into right for an RBI single and a 2-0 lead.
After a catcher’s interference call on Omar Narváez was overturned on a video review, Austin Wells hit a potential double-play grounder that first baseman Nathaniel Lowe tried to backhand on an in-between hop. The ball glanced off his glove and into shallow right field as two runs scored.
“We didn’t play defense,” Boston manager Alex Cora said. “They didn’t hit the ball hard, but they found holes and it happened fast.”
Yankees third baseman Ryan McMahon made the defensive play of the game when he caught Jarren Duran‘s eighth-inning foul pop and somersaulted into Boston’s dugout, then emerged smiling and apparently unhurt.
Count Xander Bogaerts among those looking forward to Major League Baseball’s new challenge system for balls and strikes next season.
The San Diego Padres shortstop just wishes it were in place a little earlier.
Bogaerts struck out looking on a pitch that appeared out of the strike zone during the ninth inning of the team’s 3-1 loss to the Cubs in Game 3 of the National League Wild Card Series on Thursday in Chicago.
The call came at a critical time.
The Cubs carried a 3-0 lead into the ninth inning, but Jackson Merrill led off with a home run off Brad Keller to cut San Diego’s deficit to 3-1 and bring Bogaerts to the plate. On a 3-2 count, Keller’s 97 mph fastball appeared to miss the zone low, causing Bogaerts to crouch down in disbelief at the call and Padres manager Mike Shildt to race out of the dugout.
Keller then hit Ryan O’Hearn and Bryce Johnson with pitches. Had Bogaerts walked, the Padres could have had the bases loaded with no outs. Instead, Andrew Kittredge came on with two runners on and one out and retired the next two batters, allowing the Cubs to advance to play the Milwaukee Brewers in the next round.
Bogaerts didn’t mince words after the game when asked about the apparent missed call by plate umpire D.J. Reyburn.
“Talk about it now: What do you want me to do?” Bogaerts said, according to The San Diego Union-Tribune. “It’s a ball. Messed up the whole game, you know? I mean, can’t go back in time, and talking about it now won’t change anything. So it was bad, and thank God for ABS next year because this is terrible.”
The automated ball-strike system will be implemented in the majors next season after years of testing in the minors as well as during spring training and at this year’s All-Star Game. The MLB competition committee voted last month to give teams two challenges per game using ABS if they believe a call by the plate umpire is wrong.
Thursday’s ending soured a 90-win season for San Diego, which made the playoffs for the fourth time in six seasons. It has not made it past the NL Championship Series during this recent run.
“We had a lot of fun,” Bogaerts said. “We competed with each other. We had guys that got injuries, a lot of guys stepped up. We traded for some really great people at the deadline. … It was fun until today.”