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We’ve inched past the quarter mark of the 2025 MLB season and, in many ways, the season has gone as expected: The American League looks to have a crowded playoff race, the Los Angeles Dodgers are good even with a slew of pitching injuries, contending National League teams are living up to expectations and we have some awful squads at the bottom of the overall standings.

That doesn’t leave a lot of room for surprises, but let’s look at five clubs that began the season with projected playoff odds of less than 50%, according to ESPN reporter Bradford Doolittle’s initial preseason projections, and have so far exceeded those predictions.

Which of these teams are for real and which might be early-season flukes? We’ll start with a red-hot AL team that has dominated the first two months — and no, it’s not the New York Yankees.

(All stats through Sunday.)


Preseason playoff odds: 41.2%

Key stat: Last season, the Tigers hit 162 home runs in 162 games. This season, they hit 60 in their first 47 games, a pace of 207. The team OBP has improved from .300 (29th in the majors) to .333 (sixth). As a result, Detroit has increased its runs per game from 4.21 to 5.38.

Hot start: Former No. 1 picks Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize both scuffled in 2024, with Torkelson finding himself demoted to Triple-A at one point and finishing with 10 home runs and 0.3 WAR, and Mize going 2-6 with a 4.49 ERA and 0.2 WAR. Torkelson already has 12 home runs and ranks among MLB’s best in RBIs, while Mize is 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA.

Can he keep it going? Javier Baez was so bad in 2023 and 2024 that he likely would have been let go if he didn’t still have three seasons left on his contract. However, not only is he hitting .291/.326/.485 in 2025, but he has moved to center field with Parker Meadows injured and looks like a natural out there.

Area of concern: Third base? Starting pitching depth? Really, the Tigers have shown no obvious weakness so far. Once Meadows returns, Baez can always move to third base if needed, keeping Zach McKinstry in a utility role. Sawyer Gipson-Long has started a rehab assignment, and the Double-A rotation is stacked if help is eventually needed in the rotation.

The question at this point isn’t if the Tigers are for real, but rather if they have a chance to be the best team in Tigers history. The 1984 team holds the club record with 104 wins and had that famous 35-5 start on its way to a World Series title. The 2025 Tigers are on pace for 107 wins after 47 games. They’ve been extremely well-rounded with a surprisingly deep lineup, solid defense, Tarik Skubal leading a good rotation and a bullpen picking up where it left off from last year’s out-of-nowhere trip to the postseason. Detroit has done all this with Matt Vierling and Meadows — who were second and third among position players a year ago in WAR — injured so far this season.

Mize has been a nice surprise as well, walking just nine batters in seven starts, and he should remain effective if he keeps doing that. With Skubal leading the way, the Tigers rank second to only the Philadelphia Phillies in strikeout rate among starting pitchers. The bullpen isn’t quite as dominant in that department (17th in the majors), but that’s also the easiest area to add to at the trade deadline if necessary.

If you want to nitpick, you could point to the lack of one consistent closer, as changeup specialist Tommy Kahnle, Will Vest and Brant Hurter have split duties with 12 saves between them. It’s unconventional, but all three have been effective, and manager A.J. Hinch and pitching coach Chris Fetter have certainly shown over the past two seasons they know how to work a bullpen. While some of the Tigers’ hitters can be expected to regress — Baez, in particular — getting Vierling and Meadows back will give Hinch all kinds of lineup flexibility to maximize matchups.

This probably isn’t a 107-win team or even a 104-win team, but this could be Detroit’s first 95-win team since 2011.

Verdict: Real


Preseason playoff odds: 33.9%

Key stat: The Cardinals went 12-1 from May 4 to 17, posting a 2.33 ERA and throwing three shutouts in that stretch. The rotation ranks a solid eighth in the majors with a 3.64 ERA — although just 25th in strikeout rate.

Hot start: Brendan Donovan is hitting .330/.387/.466 with 15 doubles. Ivan Herrera missed a month with a bone bruise in his knee but is hitting .429 in 15 games with 11 of his 21 hits going for extra bases.

Can he keep it going? Matthew Liberatore pitched primarily out of the bullpen in 2024, but the 25-year-old lefty has moved into the rotation and is 3-3 with a 2.92 ERA and an impressive 47-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Area of concern: Former top prospect Jordan Walker was up and down between the Cardinals and Triple-A last year, struggling while in the big leagues with a .201 average. Given another opportunity at regular duty, he’s off to a slow start, hitting .189 with 44 strikeouts in 145 plate appearances.

The Cardinals dropped to 14-19 in early May and looked kind of like what everyone expected: not very interesting and not very likely to be a factor in the NL Central race. Then came that hot streak, and while it included sweeps of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals, it also included series wins over the Phillies, New York Mets and Kansas City Royals. Indeed, there’s nothing fluky in the team’s overall win-loss record, with a plus-38 run differential — heck, St. Louis is even 0-4 in extra-inning games to drag the record down a bit.

The number that jumps out, however, is the strikeout rate from the rotation. Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante and Miles Mikolas are all averaging fewer than 6.0 K’s per nine, and it’s difficult to remain successful in this baseball era with strikeout rates that low. Of 116 pitchers with at least 40 innings, that trio ranks 105th, 106th and 111th in strikeout rate and has also combined for a 3.77 ERA. Add in Liberatore and Sonny Gray, and that’s a rotation that could make the playoffs — if they can keep it going. I’m skeptical, although Pallante in particular is an extreme ground ball pitcher and has great infield defense behind him with Masyn Winn, Nolan Arenado and Donovan.

The offense feels a bit more like the real deal, even as Walker and Nolan Gorman struggle. Victor Scott II has been much better after being overmatched in the majors a year ago, and Winn has a .349 OBP after looking lost in spring training, when he went 4-for-50. If Scott and Winn can provide decent enough offense to go with their defense, it makes the lineup a little deeper and helps make up for the team’s overall lack of power.

In the end, those are two things that pop out: the lack of strikeouts from the starting pitchers and the offense having not quite enough power. There is potential here to surprise and battle the Chicago Cubs for the division, but for now, I’m not completely sold.

Verdict: Not real


Preseason playoff odds: 24.6%

Key stat: Relievers Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers, Randy Rodriguez and Erik Miller are a combined 10-2 with a 1.27 ERA in 78 innings while holding batters to a .164 average.

Hot start: Logan Webb looks better than ever with a 2.42 ERA, just two home runs allowed and a career-high 27.4% strikeout rate.

Can he keep it going? Wilmer Flores has 10 home runs and leads the majors with 42 RBIs, even though his overall batting line doesn’t pop out at .258/.324/.454. He has hit .395 with runners in scoring position, and his home runs include one grand slam and three with two runners on.

Area of concern: Jordan Hicks just got removed from the rotation with a 6.55 ERA and Justin Verlander remains winless in nine starts. Giants first basemen are hitting .189 with just four home runs and their catchers rank next to last in OPS in the majors (although defensive stalwart Patrick Bailey isn’t going anywhere).

Maybe the most impressive aspect of the Giants’ start is that they’re winning even though the entire team hasn’t necessarily clicked on all cylinders. Besides the concerns listed above, Willy Adames got off to a slow start and closer Ryan Walker has had a couple of hiccups. The bullpen has otherwise been dominant, however, and could get even better with the hard-throwing Hicks moving back there with Hayden Birdsong getting a shot in the rotation.

Can San Francisco keep it going? It’s worth noting the Giants haven’t played the Dodgers yet and went 0-2 against the San Diego Padres and 1-2 against the Arizona Diamondbacks in their lone series against those other NL West rivals. Flores probably isn’t going to finish with 145 RBIs — the pace he’s currently on. Indeed, the entire lineup has hit especially well with runners in scoring position, ranking third in OPS behind the Dodgers and Cubs (but ranking just 15th in overall OPS).

The Giants need to get Adames going on a consistent basis and need to get more from first base, but the bullpen has a chance to be special, with Rodriguez emerging as a top setup guy and Doval pitching well again after struggling with his command last year. For now, I’m a believer. Let’s see what happens with that first series against the Dodgers in June.

Verdict: Real


Preseason playoff odds: 19%

Key stat: Based on their underlying statistics, the Guardians would be an expected 19-27, not 25-21. Most of the “clutch” performance has come on the pitching side, where they’ve allowed 4.39 runs per game against an expected total of 4.80 runs per game.

Hot start: Hunter Gaddis is showing last year’s 1.78 ERA was no fluke as he has a 1.00 ERA through 18 innings with 26 strikeouts. The only two runs he allowed both came on solo home runs.

Can he keep it going? Kyle Manzardo is hitting .221 with a .309 OBP but has 10 home runs and is slugging .493. That puts him on pace to hit 35 home runs — essentially replacing the power production of the traded Josh Naylor.

Area of concern: The rotation ranks 21st in the majors in ERA, 19th in strikeout rate, 24th in innings and 25th in OPS allowed. Cleveland isn’t getting any offense from shortstop with Brayan Rocchio hitting .165, and his defensive metrics haven’t been as impressive as they were in 2024 (although they’re still average overall).

Even though they won 92 games and reached the American League Championship Series last season, the preseason prognostications weren’t high on the Guardians, with concerns about the starting rotation plus factoring in some regression from the historic performance of last year’s bullpen. Emmanuel Clase had some early bumps, but the bullpen has been solid overall, ranking fifth in the majors in win probability added. The rotation, no surprise, hasn’t dominated, especially with Tanner Bibee seeing dips in his numbers across the board (his strikeout rate, in particular, has dropped from 26.3% to 16.4%, a huge year-to-year decrease).

You can see where this is headed: The Guardians are fortunate to be four games over .500. The offense, even with Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan, probably isn’t good enough to overcome a shaky rotation over the long haul of a 162-game season. Additionally, with Andres Gimenez in Toronto and Rocchio’s defense not as good early on, the defense hasn’t been nearly as impressive as it was last season — the team batting average allowed on balls in play has jumped from .277 to .313.

Still, at least Cleveland has put itself in a contending position. The rotation had been healthy, with the top five guys starting 44 of the team’s 46 games, until Ben Lively went on the injured list last week with a forearm strain. Slade Cecconi had a strong start filling in for Lively, so he now becomes a huge key. And maybe the Guardians will get Shane Bieber back at some point.

In the meantime, they’ll be tested over the next month, with series against the Minnesota Twins, Tigers, Dodgers, Yankees, Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners and Giants. If they can survive this stretch, we’ve learned to never count out the Guardians, but for now, it feels like they’ve overachieved.

Verdict: Not real


Preseason playoff odds: 8.4%

Key stat: The A’s were just one game out of first place in the AL West after beating Seattle on May 5, but then they went 2-9 against the Mariners, Yankees, Dodgers and Giants to fall under .500.

Hot start: Jacob Wilson is hitting .337/.369/.478 with just 10 strikeouts in 188 plate appearances.

Can he keep it going? In Tyler Soderstrom‘s case, maybe not. He was hitting .315 with nine home runs through his first 19 games but hit .243 with just one home run in his next 28 games.

Area of concern: The A’s have a lack of front-line pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen. In going 6-10 to start May, they posted a 6.13 ERA, including six games in which they allowed at least nine runs. The team’s defense isn’t helping — it ranks last in the majors in defensive runs saved.

The Athletics looked a lot more like a viable playoff contender 10 days ago but struggled in this brutal stretch against winning teams, losing four consecutive series. Indeed, the A’s are 7-12 in blowout games — those decided by five or more runs — and that’s an indicator that they might not stay relevant for the duration of the season.

On the other hand: It’s possible no team runs away with the AL West. The Mariners have three starting pitchers on the IL, stressing a pitching staff that’s already without much depth, while the Texas Rangers and Astros have both scuffled to score runs at times. One little winning streak and the A’s can climb right back into it.

Two keys: Lawrence Butler and Nick Kurtz. Butler was on my breakout list after hitting .302/.346/.597 over the final three months last season, but he’s hitting .227/.292/.386 in 2025 with a lot of swing-and-miss (he was in the 37th percentile last season in whiff rate but has dropped to the eighth percentile). Kurtz looked ready for the majors after ripping up Triple-A to begin the season, but he has been overmatched so far, hitting .219 with one home run and 30 strikeouts in 81 plate appearances. He’s going to have to improve the contact rate, or a demotion back to the minors might be forthcoming.

This is still a fun up-and-coming team. Wilson looks like a hitter who will contend for batting titles year after year with his ability to put the ball in play. I still believe in Butler and Kurtz. But the A’s rank 26th in rotation ERA and 28th in bullpen ERA. Some of that is Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park, but they’re also still 20th in road ERA. They probably don’t have the pitching to stay close all season, even in a mediocre AL West.

Verdict: Not real

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Haters’ guide to the Mannings vs. the Gators

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Haters' guide to the Mannings vs. the Gators

Between Archie, Peyton, Eli, and now, Arch, the Mannings have been a part of America’s football consciousness for nearly 60 years. Only one of the family’s college football rivalries, however, has included a spelling test, years of shade, and has spanned generations.

Within that lore, holding a spot that goes beyond merely an opponent, are the Florida Gators. First as haters-in-chief, then as part of the redemptive end to the family’s first college football run, Florida was there.

While Archie Manning never played Florida in three seasons with the Ole Miss Rebels from 1968-70, the Mannings are 2-3 as starters against the Gators. On Saturday, Texas Longhorns QB Arch Manning, with a lot of family history behind him, takes his turn in The Swamp (3:30 ET, ESPN).

It will be the next entry in what was once a salty family vs. school rivalry that featured an all-time hater.

A brief history lesson

The current Cheez-It Citrus Bowl was previously the Capital One Bowl and, before that, just the Florida Citrus Bowl. While the Orlando-based game annually hosted top-10 teams and was where the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets beat the Nebraska Cornhuskers to earn a share of the 1990 national title, it is a tier under the major bowl games. Secondly, this Manning-Florida rivalry began in the era before the BCS, let alone the College Football Playoff and the nascent days of conference championship games. So, one loss could doom a season, or at the least, keep a team from a conference title and a major bowl.

Arch Manning might already know this, but it’s important to the lore of this rivalry and will make sense later.


The visor’s world

Peyton Manning’s recruitment was a big deal. His father’s legacy in the SEC combined with Peyton’s ability made his college decision one of the biggest recruiting decisions ever in the sport. By the time Peyton landed with the Tennessee Volunteers in 1994, Steve Spurrier was going into his fifth season at his alma mater.

The Gators would win five of the first six SEC championships. That’s what Peyton Manning was stepping into. The Tennessee-Florida rivalry would become the SEC’s biggest game for much of the 1990s. Between 1990 and 2000, eight of the 11 meetings would be top-10 matchups.

Manning wasn’t a part of the Vols’ 31-0 loss to No. 1 Florida in 1994. In the 1995 game, Manning and the Vols bolted out to a 30-21 halftime lead only to see Florida outscore Tennessee 41-7 in the second half and lose 62-37.

“It’s a 60-minute game. They don’t stop the game after 30 minutes,” Florida tackle Mo Collins said after the game.

The refrain would be played more than “Rocky Top.”

Manning was solid in the game, going 23-of-36 for 326 yards and two scores. The problem: Florida’s Danny Wuerffel was better. He threw for 381 yards and six touchdowns.

It would be the only game Tennessee would lose that season, but it would keep the Volunteers out of the SEC title game and relegate them to the Citrus Bowl. An amazing Manning performance in an excruciating loss to Florida and a less-than-satisfying bowl trip.

Before the 1996 game, the trash talk went wild.

Florida defensive lineman Tim Beauchamp all but guaranteed victory.

“They look vulnerable, very vulnerable,” Beauchamp said before the game. “… It should get pretty ugly.”

Beauchamp also took a shot at Manning. “He gets rattled,” Beauchamp said.

Archie Manning offered advice to his son ahead of the game, saying “spend the week with a smirk on your face, have some fun,” Sports Illustrated reported at the time.

When the game between the No. 4 Gators and No. 2 Volunteers began, that smirk might have turned into a grimace. Florida went for it on fourth down on its first series and scored on a 35-yard touchdown pass. Manning was intercepted on Tennessee’s first series. He was intercepted once more in the half and the Gators built a 35-6 lead at the break.

Manning, who attempted 65 passes in the game, would lead a second-half rally. He threw for a school-record 492 yards and four touchdowns but also had two more interceptions, which came at the goal line when Tennessee was threatening to score.

“We would’ve liked to have been accused of running up the score, but it didn’t work out that way,” Spurrier said after UF held on for a 35-29 win.

The Gators would go on to win the SEC, go to the Sugar Bowl and win their first national title. Tennessee was off to the Citrus Bowl. Wuerffel, the first of many QB foils for Manning, threw for just 155 yards in the game against Tennessee, but had four touchdowns and, crucially, no interceptions. He would go on to win the Heisman Trophy that season as well.


How do you spell Citrus?

Just a reminder — the “Head Ball Coach” loved hating on his team’s rivals. Spurrier surely meant what he said about running up the score on Tennessee in 1996. In 1994, he called Florida State “Free Shoes U” for allegedly failing to monitor agent activity. He called Ray Goff, who coached the Georgia Bulldogs from 1989-1995 and never beat Spurrier, “Ray Goof.”

In 2015, after a fire at Auburn’s library destroyed 20 books, Spurrier said “the real tragedy is that 15 hadn’t been colored yet.”

“He’s the needler champion of the world,” former FSU coach Bobby Bowden told Mark Schlabach in 2014.

Give him a national title (that came in a rout of rival FSU) and a summer booster tour and he could be in his hating bag like he was when he uttered his most famous barb.

“You can’t spell citrus without U-T.”

The brevity. The sass. The deeper, historic context. It was Spurrier’s masterpiece of hating on Tennessee.

He also had something for Manning, who had announced he was returning for his senior season, as well.

“I know why Peyton came back for his senior year,” Spurrier said. “He wanted to be a three-time star of the Citrus Bowl.”

Despite being a No. 3 vs. No. 4 matchup, it wasn’t the wild shootout the previous two games had been. Manning was 29-of-51 for 353 yards and three touchdowns, but he also threw two picks. The Gators again shredded the Vols’ defense. Fred Taylor ran for 134 yards and Florida QB Doug Johnson threw three touchdowns in the Gators’ 33-20 win.

That was it. Manning would never beat Florida. He lost five games as a college starter. Three came to the Gators. Tennessee would go on to win the SEC in 1997 only to be crushed in the Orange Bowl by the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Ironically, due to losses to Georgia and LSU, Florida would land in the Citrus Bowl.

“It bothers me that we never did beat Florida, but hey, I can’t control the way other people view Tennessee or view my career,” Manning said after the game. “I’m sure Coach Spurrier will go make a few more jokes. That’s fine. He’s got a good ballclub.”


Eli’s coming

In the moments after Peyton Manning’s last game against Florida, Archie Manning was feeling the weight of watching his son’s very public athletic struggles.

”Everybody talks about how great and wonderful it is to be at all the games and see your son playing. But I’ll tell you something: It ain’t all it’s cracked up to be,” Archie Manning told The New York Times afterward.

”Sometimes I wish someone would just knock me out and tell me what happened when it was over. This wasn’t fun.”

Five years later, in 2002, Peyton Manning was going into his fifth season with the Indianapolis Colts, and Spurrier was about to start his ill-fated tenure as an NFL head coach. After being turned down by then-Denver Broncos coach Mike Shanahan and then-Oklahoma Sooners coach Bob Stoops, Florida hired Ron Zook, a longtime assistant in college and the NFL, to replace Spurrier.

After choosing the Ole Miss Rebels, his father’s school, and becoming the starter as a sophomore in 2001, this is what Eli Manning was stepping into for his first crack at the Gators in 2002.

While the game featured two eventual Heisman Trophy finalists and Super Bowl QBs in Manning and Florida’s Rex Grossman, it was not an aerial bonanza like those in which Peyton played.

Manning was 18-of-33 for 154 yards and no touchdowns, and Grossman was 19-of-44 with two touchdowns and four interceptions. One of those picks was returned for the winning touchdown.

The 2003 game allowed Manning to exact a bit of vengeance on his family’s nemesis. It would also mean a return to The Swamp for the Mannings. Following Peyton’s last game there, Archie Manning claimed he’d never go back. But he was there nonetheless.

“[Archie] had one last trip and he got to end it on a good one,” Eli Manning said after the game.

In the 20-17 Ole Miss win, Manning threw for 262 yards and led a 50-yard scoring drive to win the game. The lore of the family history and status of the Gators was, perhaps, not lost on Eli Manning who got a shot on Florida afterward.

“That team is beatable,” he said after the game. “They’re really not the team they were a couple of years ago when they had [Danny] Wuerffel and all of those other guys.”

That Manning ended 2-0 against Florida.


Next Manning up

Prior to the 2025 season, when Arch Manning was the preseason favorite for the Heisman, Spurrier found a little more hating in his heart.

“They’ve got Arch Manning already winning the Heisman,” Spurrier said on the “Another Dooley Noted” podcast. “My question is, if he was this good, how come they let Quinn Ewers play all the time last year? And [Ewers] was a seventh-round pick.”

Spurrier might have been right. Prior to putting up huge numbers against Sam Houston State, Manning was 124th out of 136 QBs with a 55.3% completion rate and struggled in his only other road start at Ohio State. On the other side, Florida is 1-3 after starting the season ranked No. 15 in the AP, and head coach Billy Napier is on the hot seat.

Saturday will mark 22 years to the day since a Manning played the Gators. While Arch Manning has not yet met the preseason hype, he will have his chance to continue the family winning streak and another rancorous chapter to the rivalry.

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Ole Miss’ Kiffin: Dynasties ‘over’ for bigger SEC

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Ole Miss' Kiffin: Dynasties 'over' for bigger SEC

OXFORD, Miss. — Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said “dynasties are over” in the SEC after the league added Oklahoma and Texas and recently announced it will play a ninth conference game starting in 2026.

Kiffin, whose Rebels (5-0) are ranked No. 4 in The Associated Press Top 25 poll after last week’s 24-19 victory against LSU, said name, image and likeness rules and the transfer portal have also leveled the playing field in the 16-team SEC, making it harder for programs to stay on top.

He said SEC programs will no longer be able to stockpile talent as former Alabama coach Nick Saban did while winning six national championships from 2007 to 2023 and Georgia coach Kirby Smart did when capturing back-to-back CFP national titles at his alma mater in 2021 and 2022.

“In my opinion, the dynasties are over,” Kiffin told ESPN on Wednesday. “Alabama with Coach Saban and then Kirby at Georgia, where they had those rosters year in, year out and there would be a bunch of wins by 30 points in the conference, those days are done.”

Kiffin was Alabama’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach from 2014 to 2016, helping the Crimson Tide finish 14-1 and beat Clemson 45-40 in the CFP National Championship after the 2015 season.

“When I was at Alabama, they’d be like, ‘Go watch the outside linebackers,’ and there’s six of them over there that are first-round picks,” Kiffin said. “That’s not going to happen anymore because if they don’t play, then they’re going to leave. They can’t keep them all anymore.”

Under the SEC’s new schedule, teams will play three annual opponents to maintain traditional rivalries, and the remaining six games will rotate among the other 12 league members, so programs will face each other at least once every two seasons. Teams are also required to play at least one quality nonconference game against a school from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Notre Dame every season.

Kiffin, who is 49-18 in six seasons at Ole Miss, said he didn’t want the SEC to add a ninth conference game, which was done to increase revenue, improve fan experience with an additional game against a quality opponent and get the league in line with the Big Ten’s scheduling model.

“You’re going to have really good teams going 8-4 because we’re going to play nine conference teams, including five on the road,” Kiffin said. “The conference has never been this balanced, and it never used to have Texas and Oklahoma, two top-10 teams and two of the hardest places in the country to play.

“My concern for the programs and for the coaches is that fans aren’t going to be able to get used to the numbers being different, the wins and losses. If you’re a program that’s used to being a nine- or 10-win team and you go 7-5, your fans are going to think the team is terrible and the coach is terrible. But you might have lost four road games at Georgia, Florida, LSU and Alabama.”

Vanderbilt, traditionally the SEC’s worst program, went 7-6 last season and upset No. 1 Alabama 40-35. This year, the Commodores are 5-0 and ranked 16th heading into Saturday’s game at No. 10 Alabama (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC).

Commodores coach Clark Lea has relied heavily on the transfer portal to rebuild his alma mater’s roster, including bringing in star quarterback Diego Pavia and tight end Eli Stowers from New Mexico State in 2024.

Mississippi State went 7-17 in the two seasons after former coach Mike Leach’s death in December 2022, including 2-10 under current coach Jeff Lebby in 2024. The Bulldogs brought in 31 transfers with 168 career starts before this season. They are 4-1 and upset then-No. 12 Arizona State 24-20 on Sept. 6.

“If a team in the bottom half is down for a couple of years, they won’t stay down for long anymore because they can go buy and fix their problems,” Kiffin said. “There are so many kids that want to play and go to the portal. They want to play in the SEC, so they’ll go to what you would maybe call the bottom-tier programs. They’ll fix their problems and won’t stay bad.”

Going forward, Kiffin hopes more weight will be put on schedule strength and other analytics when teams are picked for the College Football Playoff. The CFP announced on Aug. 20 that enhancements were made to the tools it uses to “assess schedule strength and how teams perform against their schedule,” including adding “greater weight to games against strong opponents.”

Kiffin said he would have preferred that SEC teams play an annual game against a Big Ten opponent, rather than another conference game, to produce an additional data point that might have differentiated SEC teams from one another.

“It can’t be these people deciding who gets in the playoff,” Kiffin said. “We’ve got to get back to analytics and computers. Baseball and basketball have the RPI where they take into account margin of victory, who you play, where you play and all of that.”

Last season, Kiffin criticized the CFP selection committee for taking Indiana and SMU over three SEC teams that went 9-3: Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina. The Rebels thumped No. 3 Georgia 28-10 at home but fell to unranked Kentucky 20-17 at home and Florida 24-17 on the road.

“Are you better than the 10-2 Big Ten team or ACC team? Well, you took away 16 nonconference games, so you really don’t know,” Kiffin said. “It’s just like the records in college football are so burned into our heads that 11-1 is so much better than 10-2 and so much better than 9-3, but it’s so different because you’re in these different conferences.”

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PSU starting LB Rojas out with long-term injury

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PSU starting LB Rojas out with long-term injury

Penn State starting linebacker Tony Rojas will be sidelined long term because of an unspecified injury sustained in practice this week.

Rojas, a junior from Fairfax, Virginia, is tied for the team lead in tackles for loss with 4.5 and ranks second with 25 tackles. He became a starter last season, finishing with 58 tackles, 6 tackles for loss and 3 interceptions, returning one for a touchdown in a College Football Playoff first-round win against SMU.

Penn State did not specify how long Rojas would be out.

Nittany Lions coach James Franklin said Wednesday that senior Dom DeLuca will get increased playing time in Rojas’ absence, and the staff is discussing how to possibly use freshmen Cam Smith and Alex Tatsch.

“What’s helpful is we have these Sunday scrimmages, so we’ve had a chance to evaluate those guys each week,” Franklin said. “Early on, Tatsch was getting a little bit more time with the varsity. We’re giving Cam an opportunity now as well.”

Rojas played much of last season with a left shoulder injury, and underwent surgery following Penn State’s CFP run.

The seventh-ranked Nittany Lions, who lost their first game last week against Oregon, visit winless UCLA on Saturday.

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