It’s Memorial Day, so you know what that means, MLB fans. You are officially free to look at the standings and give credence to what you see!

Among baseball fans, the saying goes that you should avoid checking the standings until Memorial Day because by that point teams have finally played enough games through two months to add meaning to what we’re seeing play out in every division.

Though your team’s position in the standings today doesn’t guarantee it will end the season there, there is something to the concept: According to Elias Sports Bureau data, 59% of teams (99 of 167) that were in sole possession of first place on the morning of June 1 have gone on to win their division in the wild-card era (since 1995, excluding 2020).

We asked ESPN MLB experts Jesse Rogers, Bradford Doolittle, Buster Olney and David Schoenfield to look at this year’s standings and weigh in on what stands out most.

What’s the first thing that jumps out to you when you look at the standings?

Doolittle: I’m not sure “jump” is the right verb when referring to the 2025 Colorado Rockies, but the level of depravity at the bottom of the National League West is hard to look away from. Where do you start? They are minus-171 in run differential. They are on pace to finish more than 50 games back of the fourth-place team in their division. They’ve given up nearly two runs for every one they’ve scored. But the most stunning stat of all: The Rockies rank 10th in per-game home attendance, though they’re last in their division in that area as well.

Schoenfield: The Rockies are so bad, they make the 2024 Chicago White Sox look like the 1998 New York Yankees. They’re like the ending to “Game of Thrones.” Like Shaquille O’Neal shooting free throws. To be fair, though, they’re better than the 1899 Cleveland Spiders — who hold the worst single-season record in MLB history, finishing at 20-134.

Olney: The parity of the American League, which is affirmed by the playoff odds presented on FanGraphs.com: As of Monday morning, 11 of 15 teams have at least a 20% chance of reaching the postseason. That means we really don’t know anything yet about the AL, other than how good the Detroit Tigers are and that only four games separate four teams at the top of the AL West. If there are few pre-deadline trades in late July, this will be the primary reason: AL owners of middling teams will convince themselves (and rightly so) that they have a chance and won’t deal talent.

Rogers: Seeing the Baltimore Orioles in last place in the AL East. Even if you didn’t think they did enough in the offseason, their offense alone should have kept them afloat. In that vein, the lack of productivity from Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman is quite shocking. The concept of the Orioles trading away players at the deadline was farfetched in January; now, it’s a reality.

Of the six NL teams currently in the playoff field, how many will be there in October?

Doolittle: Five. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs and New York Mets are in a solid position. I like the San Diego Padres to remain in position, though they need to add to their lineup before the trade deadline. The San Francisco Giants have been terrific, but I still think the Atlanta Braves will take off at some point, leaving San Francisco and the pitching-challenged Arizona Diamondbacks on the outside looking in.

Olney: I’ll say four of the current six — the Phillies, Mets, Cubs and Dodgers. The Giants have played well, and it seems likely that president of baseball operations Buster Posey will be aggressive before the trade deadline, and the St. Louis Cardinals have played far better than expected. But at some point, the roster depth of the Braves will fully manifest, especially now that Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider are back, and either San Diego or Arizona will take the last spot. The D-backs will look like a much different team after they get their bullpen in order, and Padres GM A.J. Preller has a knack for filling and fixing holes.

Rogers: Five of the current six will be there in October. As good as the Giants have been, I don’t think they can sustain it over 162 games. Now that the Braves have their stars back, their best days are ahead of them. I also don’t think the Cardinals have staying power, further opening the door for Atlanta.

Schoenfield: I’m in the same boat as everyone else. I’ll say five of six, with either the Giants or Cardinals eventually falling short, although it’s likely to be a crowded field down to the final week of the season, with the Braves, Padres and Diamondbacks factoring in. I still think Arizona’s lineup will power the team into a playoff spot, but the D-backs need to get Zac Gallen straightened out — he’s walking 4.2 batters per nine innings — and the fifth spot in the rotation has been a bit of a mess as well, with Ryne Nelson now getting a chance over the injured and ineffective Eduardo Rodriguez.

Of the six AL teams currently in the playoff field, how many will be there in October?

Olney: Three — I’m buying the Tigers, Yankees and Seattle Mariners. Detroit has been remarkable early this season in how it has plowed through injuries to its outfield; New York is getting better, with reinforcements for its rotation on the horizon (Luis Gil); and Seattle could have its rotation in order by the end of June now that George Kirby is back and Logan Gilbert’s return is on the horizon. The fact that the Mariners were able to take on Leody Taveras‘ whole salary is an early indicator that Seattle, which basically sat out the winter market, will be aggressive at the trade deadline.

Barring injury, Aaron Judge will win the AL MVP unanimously, so the real question is who will finish second, and Cal Raleigh is making a hell of a case.

Rogers: Four. It’s highly doubtful the AL Central will take four teams to the playoffs, so that’s where there’s an opening for a couple of teams from outside the current wild-card standings to make it. Two of the Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros and Texas Rangers will make it to the postseason along with the current three division leaders Buster listed. The question is which of the other three AL Central teams — the Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals — will join them. I think the answer is the Royals.

Doolittle: I’ll go with four, too. If my daily simulations are right, the Astros will overtake one of the AL Central clubs, probably Cleveland. Subjectively, it’s hard for me to envision the East getting in only one team, and the Red Sox have a run differential that suggests better results ahead.

Schoenfield: Probably at least three, but I’m buying only the Tigers and Yankees as locks. They are clearly the most well-rounded teams in the AL, with Detroit’s offense one of the biggest surprises of the first two months (fourth in the majors in runs per game). Otherwise, it seems like anything can happen. Heck, even the Los Angeles Angels clawed back into the picture with that eight-game winning streak. I keep waiting for the Red Sox to break out, but Alex Bregman is now out with a “significant” quad injury, according to manager Alex Cora, and they’re still searching for consistency from their non-Garrett Crochet starters, though maybe calling up top prospect Marcelo Mayer will provide the spark Boston needs.

Which team is the biggest disappointment?

Olney: A peak behind the curtain: When we do these roundtables, I am sometimes last to make my selections. But in this case, I jumped in early and got the opportunity to be Captain Obvious with my pick: the Orioles. They won 101 games two seasons ago and 91 last season, and now they’re on a trajectory to regress back to the good ol’ days of their tanking years and lose 100 or so games. Baltimore was still in the race in July of the rebuilding 2022 season — just a couple of games out of a wild-card spot — and still chose to trade players away, so is there any real doubt that the O’s will be aggressive dealers in July, parting ways with the likes of Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn? And that would be the appropriate response as their chances of making the playoffs stand at 1.6%, according to FanGraphs.

Schoenfield: Well, there is only one correct answer here, and Buster got first pick. I’ll throw out Atlanta, which classifies as disappointing even as it had to play through the injuries to Acuña and Strider. Both are back now, but the Braves still have other issues: Raisel Iglesias keeps giving up home runs and has four losses; they’ve had two other walk-off losses over the past 10 days from other relievers; Michael Harris II is struggling to get his OPS over .600; and Ozzie Albies has an OBP under .300. That season-beginning 0-7 road trip to Los Angeles and San Diego certainly put the team in an early hole.

Doolittle: The Orioles have their own tier in this department. It’s hard to overstate how much they’ve underachieved. They are barely staving off the White Sox to avoid the overall basement in the AL, and Chicago’s run differential is much, much better. Baltimore’s pitching looked suspect coming into the season, but its run prevention has completely collapsed.

Rogers: I’m going to throw a curveball to this question and pick the Diamondbacks — in particular, their bullpen. What a disaster. After signing Corbin Burnes and seeing the real Corbin Carroll emerge again, it looked like Arizona was primed for a return to prominence after making it to the World Series two years ago. Yet here the team is at .500 on Memorial Day.

It’s mostly due to a pen that ranks 26th in ERA with an ugly 5.24 mark. Perhaps the return of Kendall Graveman will help matters, but after losing A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez to injury and demoting Joe Mantiply, the bullpen is in complete flux. Add in the fact that the D-backs have produced the most save opportunities in baseball and it hurts even more to have a pen that can’t lock down games. A July fix is in order.

How many teams will win 100 games this season, and who will finish with the most wins?

Doolittle: One — the Dodgers. There’s too much parity in the AL for anyone to get there, though the Tigers are off to a great start.

Olney: The dreams of the Dodgers winning 120 games are obsolete now with their pitching staff in tatters. Incredibly, L.A. leads the majors in bullpen innings, which seems shocking given the resources the team has devoted to starting pitching. I’ll say the Tigers win the most games, and it’s possible they’ll be the only team in the majors to win 100 this season.

Rogers: It’ll be close, but I’m going with zero. The Dodgers will just miss hitting 100, as will the Tigers. One team will be saving its best for October while the other is just becoming the best version of itself and will still have a few rough patches throughout the year. And both are in tough divisions, which will also suppress their win totals — as the NL East will do for the Phillies. There’s just too much parity at the top of each league this season, so it’ll be a rare one with no 100-win squads.

Schoenfield: The Phillies look hot right now — but that’s because they just cleaned up against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, Rockies and Athletics in a generous bit of scheduling. I’ll go with the Cubs for the most wins. Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s offense is looking more and more like the real deal, which puts this lineup on another level, and they have the prospect depth to add some pitching help. The NL Central also doesn’t look particularly strong, unless you believe in the Cardinals, and the Cubs have played only nine games so far within the division. I have the Cubs clocking in at … 99 wins. So, no team wins 100, which was actually the case last season when the Dodgers led the majors with 98.

How many teams will lose 100 games this season, and who will finish with the most losses?

Doolittle: Just two — the Rockies and White Sox. The White Sox have been better, but avoiding 100 losses is a big ask as that would require them to be at least 22 games better than 2024. They aren’t that much better. The Rockies will finish with the most losses. Haven’t they lost 100 already?

Olney: Is this a trick question? The Rockies still haven’t even reached double-digits in wins yet, and they’ve got eight fewer than the White Sox. Colorado also has a summer ahead of getting pounded by a parade of strong NL teams. At this point, the season might be considered a success if the Rockies get to 40 wins (and 122 losses) on the year. I don’t know who they should trade away at the deadline, but over the next two months, they need to build a cogent strategy to dig themselves out of this hole to be able to properly shape their draft and deadline choices.

Rogers: Three. The Rockies, White Sox and Miami Marlins. Isn’t Colorado already there? And as much as Chicago has improved, this team won’t be able to reach 63 wins — though it could get close. The Marlins are on a decent pace to avoid 100 losses right now, but the trade deadline is likely to strip them of that ability.

Schoenfield: It’s not whether the Rockies will lose 100 or whether they’ll even challenge the White Sox’s modern record of 121 losses set last season, but whether they might even “shatter” that mark with 127 or 128 losses. Throw in the White Sox, Pirates and eventually, the Marlins, and we might get four 100-loss teams. The Orioles have to go 45-65 to avoid 100 losses and should be able to do that.