Why aren’t Roman Anthony and Jac Caglianone in the majors yet — and when will they get called up?
THE CALLS GET louder by the day. In Boston, where the Red Sox have stumbled to a 27-31 start, the caterwauling for the promotion of the best prospect in baseball, outfielder Roman Anthony, is pointed and shrill. In Kansas City, where Royals outfielders have combined for seven home runs in more than 600 plate appearances, the pleas for the arrival of the best power hitter in the minor leagues, Jac Caglianone, are about to enter their third month.
So, why isn’t Anthony patrolling the outfield at Fenway Park? And why isn’t Caglianone in the middle of a Royals lineup starving for offense? And if not now, when will they arrive?
While the answers are likely to be dissatisfactory to those awaiting push notifications announcing the game’s most eagerly anticipated promotions, the reasons reflect how executives approach the great unknowns inherent in baseball — and the rarity with which a rookie instantaneously changes the fortunes of a franchise.
The Red Sox are seeing the vagaries of trusting a rookie in real time. Along with Anthony, shortstop Marcelo Mayer and infielder/outfielder Kristian Campbell formed the greatest position-playing prospect trio in a decade coming into the 2025 season. Campbell broke camp with Boston and after the season’s first month looked the part of a star. Since then, he has gone 9-for-79 and posted the worst OPS of any hitter in Major League Baseball.
“It’s really difficult to predict that someone is going to be successful out of the gate,” Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told ESPN this week. “You’re making these long-term, probabilistic bets that guys who perform the way Kristian and Marcelo and Roman have tend to be productive big leaguers. But does that happen in Week 1, Month 1, Season 1? You don’t know. You try to round out their development as well as possible. It’s really important that communication between our major league staff and player-development group is seamless so we know exactly what their training, game-planning and routines look like so we can control as many of those variables as possible knowing what we can’t control.”
What Breslow and Royals general manager J.J. Picollo do control is the debuts of Anthony and Caglianone. And despite being the two most impressive hitters in the minor leagues this season, they’re still waiting.
EARLY IN SPRING training, a Royals official laid out a potential timeline for Caglianone’s ascent to the big leagues. Fortune had struck the previous July when the 6-foot-5, 250-pound, power-hitting, gas-throwing two-way player slipped to them with the sixth pick in the 2024 draft. Caglianone, the official said, would start at Double-A, ditch pitching and get most of his reps at first base — where he had played at the University of Florida — before transitioning to Triple-A and spending most of his time in right field to prepare for where he could be needed most in the majors.
The fear over Kansas City’s outfield depth was acute. The Royals made the 2024 postseason in spite of their outfield, and they returned a similar group this season with similar results so far: a combined .236/.285/.332 line. Caglianone himself has twice as many home runs as all the Royals’ outfielders put together. In a four-game stretch last week following his promotion to Triple-A, he hit five home runs, nearly as many as Kansas City’s outfield collective has hit all season.
With every towering drive, Caglianone has strengthened his case to get the call to Kansas City and rescue a Royals team with otherworldly pitching and the inverse offensively. And that only hardened Picollo’s stance that both Caglianone and the organization would benefit from the young slugger getting more seasoning in the minor leagues.
“The hardest part about this for us is we’re trying to do what’s best for the player,” Picollo said this week. “That’s ultimately what this is. You want the player to be as prepared as he can when he comes in the major leagues. It’s not fair to any player, whether it’s Jac Caglianone or whoever, when a team may be scuffling offensively to try to put it on him and hope he’s going to come save the day.”
Not only is Kansas City sticking to the plan it mapped out before the season, it’s doing so with a purpose. For all of his power — he hit a ground ball nearly 121 mph earlier this year and his 111.6-mph, 90th-percentile exit velocity would top current major league leaderboards — Caglianone’s propensity to swing at pitches outside the strike zone remains a flaw in his game.
Caglianone dropped to the sixth pick last summer almost entirely on account of fear over his chase rate. Nearly everything else about his game screamed star, but in his final season at Florida, he offered at 41.6% of pitches out of the strike zone — a number exceeded by only five qualified big league players this season. For a man of his size and strength, Caglianone possessed uncommon bat-to-ball skills, but his swing decisions needed fixing.
The improvements he has made are tangible. By no means did Caglianone turn overnight into Juan Soto, who swings at the fewest pitches out of the zone in MLB. Caglianone’s chase rate is down to 34.2%, though, and that’s facing competition in the upper minor leagues whose talent and stuff dwarf the vast majority of SEC pitching.
“We just want him to face more advanced pitching in Triple-A, see how they game-plan for him, how he adapts and makes adjustments,” Picollo said. “Not just game-to-game but at-bat-to-at-bat. Is he learning how better, more skilled pitchers can execute a game plan? Is he learning from that and is he making those adjustments?”
For the most part, yes. Before his promotion to Triple-A, the Royals impressed upon the 22-year-old Caglianone the importance of swinging at the right pitches. Caglianone is so talented, so dexterous in his bat-to-ball skills and, above all, so capable of performing at elite levels in spite of them that there’s a compelling argument that he belongs in the big leagues regardless of his flaws. The counterargument — that not only is Caglianone chasing too much still, but his two-strike chase rate this year has jumped to 49.2%, the sort of thing major league pitchers will happily exploit — is one the Royals believe worth addressing before any promotion.
Picollo doesn’t know if that’s the proper call. He loves Caglianone, wants him in Kansas City sooner rather than later. Already Caglianone is taking to right field — “For having only done it for a couple weeks,” Picollo said, “it’s been pretty positive” — and the reasons for him not supplanting one of Kansas City’s outfielders dwindle by the day.
The Royals’ Triple-A team is in the midst of a two-week homestand, and if Caglianone continues his solid outfield play and further cuts into his chase rate, he could debut soon thereafter, according to a source familiar with Kansas City’s plans.
“I don’t want to put a timetable on it, but we want to see it for a little bit,” Picollo said. “I mean, this first week was great, but we certainly weren’t saying when he went to Double-A, ‘Have a good first week and bring him to Kansas City.'”
Royals fans were. And that’s to be expected. No other sport has the buildup to a debut quite like baseball. Even on an accelerated path like Caglianone’s, it’s an ever-present consideration. In the case of Anthony, it has been years in the making.
SOON AFTER THE Red Sox chose Roman Anthony out of Stoneman Douglas High with the 79th pick in the 2022 draft, members of the front office would tell one another in hushed tones: We stole him. A tweak to his swing unleashed the full extent of his power and with the elite swing decisions he had shown during his amateur career, Anthony quickly became an arrow-up prospect.
At 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds, he cut the figure of a middle-of-the-order bat, and in his first full season, Anthony did more than look the part, jumping from Low-A to Double-A at 19. He kept hitting last year, finishing the season on a hot streak at Triple-A and picking right back up this year, hitting .320/.452/.529 with eight home runs and as many walks as strikeouts in 48 games.
The chorus pleading for Anthony to make the 45-mile drive from Worcester, Massachusetts, to Boston has likewise grown. Breslow hears it. Not just from fans but also from officials inside the organization who believe Anthony should be in the big leagues today.
“You try to make these decisions as unemotionally as possible, which is really, really difficult because the rest of the organization and I are incredibly invested in the success of this team,” Breslow said. “You try to build out the best process you can when emotions aren’t high so you can approach it as rationally as possible.”
The rational case for keeping Anthony in the minor leagues is twofold. The first involves similar markers to Kansas City’s for Caglianone. While Anthony doesn’t struggle with chase — his 17.6% rate would rank fifth in MLB, behind Soto, Gleyber Torres, Trent Grisham and Kyle Tucker — his propensity to hit the ball on the ground gives Boston pause. Plenty of good players have ground ball rates in the same neighborhood as Anthony’s 52% — among them: Elly De La Cruz, Jacob Wilson, Fernando Tatis Jr., James Wood, Gunnar Henderson, Soto — but combine that with a low number of balls pulled in the air and it suggests Anthony has even more to unlock.
The second is because, unlike in Kansas City, Boston’s lineup is packed with strong performers including an outfield seemingly with no spot for Anthony. Left fielder Jarren Duran last year put up the most Wins Above Replacement from a Red Sox player since Mookie Betts’ departure. Multiple teams’ internal defensive metrics suggest Ceddanne Rafaela is the best defensive center fielder in baseball. Right fielder Wilyer Abreu is hitting 30% better than league average. Boston’s best bat, Rafael Devers, is a full-time designated hitter.
Options do exist. The Red Sox could shift Rafaela to second base, slide Campbell to first and free up a spot for Anthony. They could sit shortstop Trevor Story — like Campbell, he’s in a monthlong swoon — and move Rafaela there. But these sorts of permutations remove an elite defensive center fielder from his best position, and that’s something other organizations wouldn’t even consider, even if Rafaela’s offense has been paltry.
“We have to be willing to react and pivot to all the variables in front of us,” Breslow said. “Things change. Guys get hurt. The lineup doesn’t look exactly the same as we thought it would on Opening Day. We try to balance all these things.”
Striking that balance isn’t easy. Anthony has been so good and is so polished for a player who just turned 21 that the Red Sox, mired in mediocrity and without slugging third baseman Alex Bregman for an extended period, are potentially wasting an opportunity for Anthony to help turn their season around.
That sort of thinking, Breslow said, looks past the prospect of lending too much credence to a handful of games and acting out of desperation to remedy ills that go well beyond what one player can do. So even as Anthony whacks home runs that leave the bat at 116 mph at Triple-A, Boston is sticking with its development plan, lest it promote Anthony and watch him spiral like the last No. 1 overall prospect to arrive in the American League East, Baltimore second baseman Jackson Holliday.
Following his ballyhooed debut, Holliday lasted 10 games in the big leagues before returning to Triple-A. He went 2-for-34 with 18 strikeouts and reminded that regardless of one’s minor league numbers, the relentlessness of the big leagues eats at even the most talented players. Even so, there will come a point at which Anthony’s advancement will be undeniable. It could be weeks. It could be days. He’s training to better attack in-zone fastballs, which he should punish more regularly. He’s spending more time in left field, in case Boston opts to use him there. He’s tapping into his power by focusing on elevating more.
These areas to improve are all nitpicks, a fact acknowledged by Breslow. Like Picollo with Caglianone, he has reverence for Anthony: the skills, the personality, the maturity. Breslow, who spent parts of 12 seasons in the big leagues, knows as well as anyone the challenges major league pitchers present and wants to ensure the organization handles Anthony with the utmost care, even if it’s sacrificing an unknown future for a grim present.
“We think,” Breslow said, “he’s going to be a heck of a big league player.”
IT’S SUPER 2 cutoff season. Around this time of year, first-year players arrive in the big leagues and become part of the so-called Super 2s, a group of players whose time on a major league roster is in the top 22% of their service class. Being a Super 2 comes with a privilege: an extra year of arbitration beyond the standard three, giving about a quarter of players a golden ticket to earn more than the major league minimum before their third full season.
Because Super 2 players can make millions more in the arbitration system than their peers who don’t qualify, some teams have held back their best prospects. But Picollo and Breslow insist service time has nothing to do with their decisions on Caglianone and Anthony, and considering both organizations have recently started the season with a highly touted prospect in the big leagues — Bobby Witt Jr. in 2022 and Campbell this year — neither organization is afraid to look past service-time considerations. By keeping Caglianone and Anthony down, both teams also gave up the opportunity to collect an extra draft pick as Kansas City did this year with Witt through the Prospect Promotion Incentive program, which awards teams for starting top prospects in the big leagues at the beginning of a season.
Still, the optics of keeping both in minor league systems they’ve come close to conquering while their major league offenses struggle only inflames their fan bases. The public’s view of Caglianone and Anthony is not in the moments where they’re vulnerable or still learning but rather social media clips of balls traveling unthinkable distances at silly speeds that leave teammates breathlessly recounting their exploits.
“The whole dugout feels something different when he connects,” said Royals outfielder John Rave, who spent time with Caglianone at Triple-A. “Obviously he’s a physical specimen, but, yeah, he had a couple balls this past week where you kind of put your head down and laugh. You’re like, this is a little bit ridiculous. They might have to start moving the fences back on some of these fields.”
The fences at Kauffman Stadium are plenty deep. And that’s where Caglianone is headed next. He’ll almost certainly be with the Royals when they face the Red Sox at Fenway on Aug. 4. And if everything goes according to plan, Anthony will be in the middle of the Red Sox’s starting lineup, too.
The next generation of baseball is on deck, just waiting for its time. What’s right, what’s wrong, when that is — no one really knows. But that doesn’t stop people from blaming the Royals and Red Sox anyway. Caglianone and Anthony are an inevitability, here sooner rather than later, ready to reward those anxiously awaiting their arrival.
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
The 2024-25 NHL regular season is over and the playoffs are underway..
This is the place where we look ahead to the offseason for all the teams eliminated from contention: Who will those teams try to add via free agency, trades and the draft? How much better will the team be in 2025-26?
Read on for a look at what went wrong for each eliminated team, along with a breakdown of the biggest keys this offseason and realistic expectations for next season. Note that more teams will be added to this story as they are eliminated.
Note: Profiles for the Atlantic and Metro teams were written by Kristen Shilton, and Ryan S. Clark analyzed the Central and Pacific teams. Stats are collected from sites such as Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey. Projected cap space per PuckPedia. Dates listed with each team are when the entry was published. Teams are listed alphabetically by publication date.
Jump to a team:
ANA | BOS | BUF | CGY
CAR | CHI | COL | CBJ
DAL | DET | LA | MIN
MTL | NJ | NSH | NYI
NYR | OTT | PHI | PIT
SJ | SEA | STL | TB
TOR | UTA | VAN | VGK
WSH | WPG
Playoff teams
Projected cap space: $5.32 million
2025 draft picks: 3rd, 5th, 5th (NJ), 6th, 7th
What went right? There’s no questioning their status as a championship contender. Not that the Stars’ aspirations were ever in question, but the moves that GM Jim Nill made throughout the 2024-25 season further reinforced the Stars to win now.
A team that once thought of draft picks as sacred moved on from first- and fourth-round picks in this summer’s draft in a trade that returned Cody Ceci and Mikael Granlund. Then Nill moved even more draft capital (two first-round picks and two third-round picks) and promising young forward Logan Stankoven to get Mikko Rantanen, before signing the superstar Finn to an eight-year extension.
All of that helped get the Stars back to the Western Conference finals for the third straight season.
What went wrong? Some of the questions that were present throughout the Stars’ playoff run — such as their depth — were issues in the conference finals against the Edmonton Oilers. It initially appeared as if the Stars had found a solution with the number of players who contributed to their 6-3 comeback win in Game 1.
But the next three games would see them score only twice, which made the Stars the second team that was in the top five in goals per game during the regular season to be effectively silenced by the Oilers in a playoff series (the Vegas Golden Knights were dispatched in the second round).
Failing to consistently score goals or generate some sort of a breakthrough in other areas is what led to Stars becoming the first team to reach three straight conference finals without advancing to the Stanley Cup Final in NHL history.
Keys to the offseason: Perhaps the only thing more draining than being a championship contender that can’t seem to reach the Stanley Cup Final? Figuring out how to remain in contention despite having only so much cap space.
The Stars have built well from within, allowing them to maintain the sort of cap space that has given them an advantage to this point. But with Wyatt Johnston and Jake Oettinger set to receive significant pay bumps on their new deals, and the first year of Rantanen’s new contract kicking in, the Stars will need to get creative — along with making some difficult decisions this summer. Matt Duchene, Jamie Benn, Evgenii Dadonov, Granlund, and Ceci headline the class of unrestricted free agents.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Much like they were this season, the Stars will again be among that category of teams in a championship window. But what will make next season hypothetically more challenging is the fact that the young core who have been key performers on those cheap contracts are now making more money. That not only amplifies the need for the Stars to hit on players on team-friendly deals, but it ramps up the pressure to start winning in this part of their window.
Projected cap space: $36.18 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 3rd (TB), 4th, 6th, 6th (TB), 7th
What went right? Carolina had another impressive regular season. The Canes finished in second place in the Metro Division, with a 99-point effort that set them up in good position for a long playoff run.
The Hurricanes were strikingly stingy again on defense, finishing in the top 10 in goals-against average (2.80), and their penalty kill was tops in the league (83.6%). Carolina’s offense was propelled by Seth Jarvis (32 goals) and Sebastian Aho (74 points), and worked in complement with their dialed-in defense.
The Hurricanes also lucked out in the trade-gone-bad for Mikko Rantanen; while Rantanen didn’t stick around, Carolina did get Logan Stankoven in return from Dallas (along with a bounty of picks) when it traded Rantanen away. Stankoven has been a key player for the Hurricanes this postseason, and will be for seasons to come.
Carolina managed to put it all together and get rolling to start the playoffs too, losing a combined two games in the first and second rounds to punch its ticket to a second Eastern Conference finals in three years.
What went wrong? Well, about that conference finals appearance. It did not go well. The Hurricanes lost — again — to Florida, although they won one game, which was one more than two years ago. Prior to the Game 4 victory, it was 15 straight losses in conference finals action. Not ideal.
Carolina had benefited from terrific goaltending from Frederik Andersen in the first two rounds, but the Hurricanes’ netminder was no match for the Panthers’ punishing attack. Coach Rod Brind’Armour replaced Andersen with Pyotr Kochetkov in Game 3, but that did little to slow Florida’s roll as they pounded Kochetkov just the same. Andersen was strong in Game 4, but couldn’t sustain it in Game 5.
The Hurricanes’ offense was no help, scoring three goals total in the series’ first three games. That lack of depth up front is what GM Eric Tulsky tried to address in acquiring Rantanen in the first place. Knowing Rantanen wouldn’t be sticking around long term — and was hardly a difference-maker with two goals in the 13 games he did play for Carolina — Tulsky had no choice but to give him up. Now he’ll have to try again at finding ways to put Carolina over the top.
Keys to the offseason: The Hurricanes have ample cap space to use in the offseason. That’s a bonus considering they’ve got some holes to fill.
There’s a need for Carolina to get — and keep — a Jake Guentzel or Rantanen type of player — that big, game-breaking talent who can drive their offense in a tough division, and get them a goal when they need it most in the playoffs. While Jarvis, Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and even Stankoven are excellent players, they aren’t moving the needle enough for Carolina when it counts. Whether it’s another splashy trade or finding someone on the open market to fill that role, the Hurricanes will be better equipped for the 2026 playoffs if they can land a headliner.
Tulsky has draft capital to wield as well, with a 2025 first-round choice a prime asset. The front office also must make decisions on an unrestricted free agent class that includes forwards Jack Roslovic, Eric Robinson, Jesper Fast and Tyson Jost, along with defensemen Brent Burns and Dmitry Orlov.
And speaking of the back end, the Hurricanes are getting long in the tooth on their blue line. An infusion of some younger talent — along with increased opportunity for Alexander Nikishin (23) and Scott Morrow (22) — would go a long way.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Carolina has too many good players not to be in the playoff field again. It’s just a matter of what the results will be like when they arrive. There’s reason to question what they can put together after another disappointing showing on the heels of such early playoff promise.
Projected cap space: $27.49 million
2025 draft picks: 2nd (FLA), 3rd (EDM), 5th, 5th (PIT), 6th, 7th
What went right? The Maple Leafs enjoyed another terrific regular season. Toronto won its first division title in 25 years by finishing fourth overall in points (108) and wielding the seventh-best offense (3.26 goals per game). First-year coach Craig Berube restructured the Leafs into a team that could not only score goals but play a strong collective defensive game, too, resulting in the Leafs’ eighth-ranked defense (2.79 goals against).
The goaltending tandem of Anthony Stolarz (21-8-3, .926 save percentage, 2.14 goals-against average) and Joseph Woll (27-14-1, .909 SP, 2.73 GAA) worked seamlessly in Stolarz’s first season with the club, and new additions on the blue line — especially Chris Tanev — made the Maple Leafs more physically robust than they’d been in years.
The Leafs also got unexpectedly strong contributions from some familiar faces, including John Tavares; the veteran had one of his most productive seasons for Toronto, with 38 goals and 74 points. And rising star Matthew Knies had a breakout season with 29 goals and 58 points, success that he carried over into the postseason, with several solid performances. Speaking of which, the Leafs actually won a playoff round!
What went wrong? Toronto may have skated past the Ottawa Senators with a first-round victory, but the Leafs’ postseason demons were alive and well in their second-round clash with the Florida Panthers.
Toronto squandered an early 2-0 series lead, watching it evaporate in Florida’s come-from-behind victory in Game 3 and a shutout win in Game 4. The Leafs were booed off their own ice in Game 5’s 6-1 drubbing, where Toronto’s lack of star power was blatantly obvious. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander were all goal-less against the Panthers to that point, but they rose to the occasion in Game 6 to drag the Cats back to Toronto for Game 7.
That’s where the Leafs’ run ended, marking the sixth Game 7 loss for Toronto in the Matthews era. Florida is designed to wear opponents down, and while Toronto blocked shots with gusto the entire series, the Panthers’ heavy forecheck and strong play in front of a rock-solid Sergei Bobrovsky was too much to overcome. Toronto’s once-potent power play was no help, either, going 2-for-20 in the series.
Granted, the Leafs lost Stolarz in Game 1 of the series to an undisclosed injury, but Woll gave them every chance to take Game 4, was strong early in Game 5 and shut the door completely in Game 6. The Leafs simply couldn’t produce offensively, and in hallmark fashion their top skaters failed to show up when it mattered. Berube said Toronto was “overthinking” late in the postseason. That may have been true — and once again, there’s another too-long summer ahead to dwell on what could have been.
Keys to the offseason: First things first: Is Marner still a Maple Leaf next season? The pending unrestricted free agent wanted to play out the final year of his contract before deciding whether to recommit to Toronto. It’s time now for both sides to decide whether renewing their vows — or an amicable split — makes more sense.
The Leafs will have salary cap space to use on a significant extension, but depending on where Marner hopes to land (likely among the league’s highest-paid forwards), Toronto will have to balance his asking price with their other needs. Knies is a restricted free agent in whom the Leafs will want to invest, and Tavares’ deal is up, too. Given how the latter performed this season, there has to be interest on both sides to stay together.
There’s also the matter of Nicholas Robertson, another pending RFA who has in the past expressed his desire to leave Toronto. Will GM Brad Treliving find a suitable trade partner now?
The Leafs don’t have much draft capital, having traded their first-round pick this season for Jake McCabe in 2023, but the cap space they have will be useful on the open market — and Robertson could come into play as a trade chip as well.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Toronto is built to win now, and the team will be back chasing a division title again next season. Will it lead to anything of note in the playoffs? Well, it’s easy to wonder what it will take to make that a reality.
Projected cap space: $36.36 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? Any questions about how Scott Arniel’s first season as the head coach would go after previous serving as Rick Bowness’ assistant were emphatically answered. Especially with the Jets pulling off something they hadn’t done since the 2020-21 season: advancing to the second round of the playoffs.
Much of their success stemmed from being able to trust they could receive contributions throughout their entire lineup. That was further fortified by having a consistent defensive structure that was enhanced by Connor Hellebuyck, who is in line to become the first American to win three Vezina Trophies.
What went wrong? There was never a concern about whether the Jets were a playoff team. But there were questions about how the Jets could fare against a team in a legitimate championship window if they got beyond the first round.
Facing the Dallas Stars provided glimpses that the Jets could keep games close for a time, before succumbing to the big period against one of the West’s top contenders. It’s what happened in Games 1 and 3, when the Stars had a pair of three-goal periods in those contests. Or it was seeing how key players such as Mikael Granlund and Mikko Rantanen paced the Stars with hat tricks and the Jets didn’t get the same high-octane offense.
Keys to the offseason: The Jets are going to have a lot of money this summer to address their roster.
Some of that will likely go toward re-signing pending restricted free agent Gabriel Vilardi, who just had his third straight 20-goal campaign while scoring a personal-best 61 points.
Where it gets complicated, interesting or both is figuring out how they’ll handle pending unrestricted free agent winger Nikolaj Ehlers. Does he stay? Does he leave? If he leaves, will they do a sign-and-trade and not risk losing him for nothing?
And if he does go, how do the Jets replace a dynamic, seven-time 20-goal scorer?
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: No team is guaranteed a playoff berth. But there are those that are judged more on what they did or didn’t do in the postseason compared to what they did in the regular season. That’s where the Jets currently live.
The Jets should challenge for a playoff spot in a demanding Central Division. It’s just that their well-noted struggles to get out of the first round is what makes the regular season, while important, not the barometer by which they will be assessed. Whether or not they can get out of the first round — and the second, and beyond — will be the new litmus test for the Jets.
Projected cap space: $12.38 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd (BOS), 3rd (CAR), 4th, 5th
What went right? Washington was supposed to be rebuilding, and this season showed the Capitals didn’t need long to regroup. They were excellent from the outset of the regular season and quickly climbed atop the Eastern Conference standings. That’s where the Capitals stayed most of the season, accumulating the second-most points (111) in the league on the strength of their second-ranked offense (averaging 3.49 goals per game) and superb goaltending from Logan Thompson (31-6-6, .910 SV%, 2.49 GAA).
There was no bigger — or better — storyline for the Capitals though than seeing captain Alex Ovechkin make history when he surpassed Wayne Gretzky as the NHL’s all-time scoring leader with career goal No. 895 on April 6. It was an individual accomplishment Ovechkin chased with his entire team; his teammates referenced that quest as a constant source of motivation through the ups and downs of their season.
In addition to the Capitals’ veteran guard showing off, the Capitals saw terrific growth from some other emerging stars as well, including Ovechkin’s frequent linemates Aliaksei Protas (with a 30-goal campaign) and Dylan Strome (who led the club with 82 points). Coach Spencer Carbery deserves ample credit for turning the Capitals around in record time.
What went wrong? The Capitals’ greatest strength in the regular season became their biggest challenge by the playoffs. Washington’s red-hot offense began drying up in their second-round series against Carolina, as the Hurricanes’ stout defense and outstanding goaltending smothered the Capitals’ rush attack.
Ovechkin was particularly absent from the scoresheet against Carolina, failing to get on the board until he notched a power-play marker in Game 4. But Washington’s depth wasn’t the asset it could have been, with the team averaging just over two goals per game.
While Thompson did his best to hold the Hurricanes at bay, he didn’t receive enough support to turn those efforts into victories. The Capitals weren’t creating high-danger chances like they could in the regular season, and the lack of a net-front presence made it too easy for Frederik Andersen to shut the door.
Meanwhile, Washington’s own defensive efforts never matched Carolina’s intensity, and the Hurricanes leaned on 10 different goal scorers for a more balanced offense than what Washington rolled out. Carolina also capitalized on a poor Capitals penalty kill (72.7%) to send them into an early summer.
Keys to the offseason: Washington is in a good position for a bright future. In the process of getting there, the Capitals will also be saying a likely goodbye to some critical veteran presences from their past.
T.J. Oshie is a pending unrestricted free agent after missing the entire 2024-25 season with a chronic back issue. Same for Nicklas Backstrom, who missed the entire campaign with a hip injury. With those skaters off the books, the Capitals will be able to restock on the open market, and should be targeting top-nine skaters to help avoid running aground offensively again in the postseason.
The Capitals have other veterans with expiring deals as well — namely Lars Eller and Anthony Beauvillier — who have been role players in what was a strong season. Washington can also do some damage at the draft — whether via trades or using the picks — with selections in the first five rounds. Then, of course, there’s the question of Ovechkin: is he done now after that historic achievement? Or is there another year ahead for him in the NHL? He has one year remaining on his contract.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Washington may need some offensive upgrades, but it’s nothing so drastic as to keep them from being a playoff team again. Expect to see them trend in a similar direction — towards the top of the Metropolitan standings — next season.
Projected cap space: $9.62 million
2025 draft picks: 2nd, 3rd (WSH), 4th, 5th, 6th, 6th (WSH)
What went right? For all the concerns about how much they lost in free agency last summer, the Golden Knights found solutions. Homegrown talent Pavel Dorofeyev led them in goals in the regular season (35), and others such as Brett Howden had breakout campaigns.
Many of those contributions — coupled with what they received from their stars and other venerable figures — allowed the Golden Knights to remain in the category of teams that could challenge for a Stanley Cup. Their depth was certainly on display against the Minnesota Wild in the first round.
What went wrong? In the second round against the Oilers, that depth disappeared. They came into Game 5 trying to find the type of answers that eluded them all series.
Players such as Ivan Barbashev, Tomas Hertl and Howden combined to score 78 goals in the regular season — but had zero in the series against Edmonton. Their defensemen combined for 35 goals during the regular season, but had only one in the playoffs.
A lack of consistent scoring was pivotal in the series, particularly in the games in which the Golden Knights scored the first goal in an attempt to gain a grasp of control only to watch the series slip through their fingers.
Keys to the offseason: Next offseason will be the one in which the Golden Knights will face some major questions: Franchise center Jack Eichel‘s current deal runs through 2025-26, while the contracts for Mark Stone, Alex Pietrangelo and William Karlsson run through 2026-27.
But for now, they have 16 players under contract for next season, and Brandon Saad and Reilly Smith are part of a six-player unrestricted free agent class. Nicolas Hague is their key restricted free agent; he has one year of team control remaining before he hits UFA status.
It’s possible that the Golden Knights use their cap space to add around the edges, while trying to secure a deal with Hague that works for both sides ahead of what’s expected to be a busy 2025-26 campaign.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: The demand — as always, for a franchise that has made winning at all costs its hallmark — is challenging for the Stanley Cup.
But that comes with the caveat that this upcoming season could have two major roster-construction wrinkles: Eichel and Dorofeyev. As noted, Eichel is entering the final year of a contract that sees him earn $10 million annually. As for Dorofeyev, replicating or surpassing the career-high 35 goals he scored this season could see him cash in on a new deal; he’ll be a pending RFA that’s set to earn $1.835 million in 2025-26. Finding long-term solutions to both situations will be critical.
Projected cap space: $7.15 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 5th, 6th
What went right? Every move that GM Doug Armstrong made throughout the summer and into the season.
The offer sheets for Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway led to Broberg, when healthy, having a career-high eight goals and 29 points while logging more than 20 minutes per game. Not to be outdone, Holloway had his first 20-goal campaign.
The trade for Cam Fowler resulted in him having one of the strongest seasons of his career — and leading the team in scoring for much of the first round.
Moving on from Drew Bannister to hire Jim Montgomery resulted in the Blues gaining a legitimate level of consistency that they used to reach the playoffs for the first time since the 2021-22 season.
What went wrong? Part of the issue was that the Blues could never win a game at Canada Life Centre. The rest stems from the Blues having a proven blueprint that worked twice but failed to be replicated two more times to win the series against the Winnipeg Jets.
Generating a combined 20 high-danger scoring chances in Games 3 and 4 was instrumental in the Blues scoring 11 goals against Connor Hellebuyck in those contests. That created a belief that the Blues could capitalize on the struggles of one of the best goalies of his era, whose regular-season success had yet to translate to the playoffs. But Hellebuyck and the Jets would find a counter en route to advancing to the second round.
Keys to the offseason: For starters, the Blues don’t have a ton of cap space. But they have only one pending restricted free agent in goaltender Joel Hofer, while center Radek Faksa and defenseman Ryan Suter are their only pending unrestricted free agents.
Then there’s the Torey Krug situation. He missed the entire regular season and playoffs after undergoing ankle surgery in the preseason. Getting Krug back would not only give the Blues a logjam of defensemen, but it would give them six blueliners under contract who are each earning more than $4 million annually — and all of them except Broberg have some form of trade protection.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Returning to the playoffs, or at least remaining in the hunt for a playoff spot late into the season, is the plan. The Central Division is still going to have teams such as the Avalanche and Stars that are in a championship window, with the Jets trying to establish themselves as a perennial threat.
Meanwhile, the Wild are expected to be an active player in free agency, while the same could be said for Utah after it stayed in contention for a wild card entering the final two weeks of the season. Adding the Blues to that equation means there will be six teams (at minimum) in the division legitimately vying for a playoff spot in 2025-26.
Projected cap space: $8.70 million
2025 draft picks: 4th (VAN), 7th
What went right? Adjustments and course corrections. By December, the Avalanche already had concerns about their supporting cast — along with the problems created by an inconsistent goaltending tandem.
That prompted Avs general manager Chris MacFarland to make a series of trades that saw Colorado do everything from get a new tandem in net — led by Mackenzie Blackwood — to make key additions at the trade deadline to make the Avs one of the more dangerous teams heading into the playoffs. Their first-round exit came at the hands of a team that’s seeking to make its third straight conference finals appearance.
What went wrong? The margins for error were extremely tight. Then again, that was likely to be the case in a first-round matchup of two teams that are clearly in a championship window — and both finished with more than 100 points in the regular season.
Opening the series against the Dallas Stars with a 5-1 win and taking Game 4 with a 4-0 win spoke to just how commanding the Avs could be against a fellow Stanley Cup challenger.
But the overtime wins the Stars had in Games 2 and 3 were the difference in the Avs either sweeping the series or, in this case, being knocked out in seven after an impressive Game 6 win. They even led 2-0 in Game 7, only to witness an historic third period by former teammate Mikko Rantanen.
Keys to the offseason: Determining the best way to spend their limited cap dollars is the task every team in a championship window faces. The Avalanche know this reality all too well with the biggest factor being Gabriel Landeskog‘s health. While his return provides the Avs with a top-six forward, his $7 million cap can’t be moved to long-term injured reserve to create financial flexibility as the team had done the past few years.
That’s what leaves the Avs with a projected $8.70 million in cap space to address a seven-player unrestricted free agent class that includes Jonathan Drouin and trade deadline pickups Ryan Lindgren and Brock Nelson.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: They’re still expected to remain among the top contenders that will challenge for a Stanley Cup. The Avs have their core and quite a few members of their supporting cast under contract through at least next season. What they do in the offseason will play a role in supplementing what they already have, with the notion they’re going to be among that handful of Western Conference teams that feel the title is within reach.
Projected cap space: $23.48 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 7th (PHI)
What went right? Nearly everything they did in the regular season. Something that might get lost within the discourse around the Kings was their 48 wins tied the franchise record for the most single-season victories, while their 105 points was also tied for the most in their history.
They overcame losing Drew Doughty to a preseason injury, finally found a stable presence in goal with Darcy Kuemper, established themselves as one of the strongest defensive units in the NHL and received contributions throughout the entirety of their lineup– to the point that 14 players had more than 20 points, with five of them being defensemen. But …
What went wrong? Losing to the Edmonton Oilers in the first round … again.
Winning the first two games of the series by scoring six goals in each contest created the early impression that this could be the year that saw the Kings finally advance to the second round for the first time in more than a decade. Instead, their first-round loss has raised questions:
Why did they struggle to make adjustments beyond Game 2? Why were they able to build a commanding lead in Game 2 yet blew consecutive leads in Games 3 and 4? Why is it that just simply typing Jim Hiller’s name in an internet search is immediately met with “Jim Hiller challenge” because there’s a belief his Game 3 decision might have been the turning point in the series? And then there’s one more pressing question to consider given their latest first-round exit.
Keys to the offseason: Are the Kings going to stay the course or do they use this offseason to make significant changes?
If they move on from Hiller, that will give the Kings their third head coach since February 2024 when they fired Todd McLellan. Or could ownership be inclined to look at a front office that, while making several moves to improve the roster, hasn’t quite found the definitive combination to get the Kings beyond the first round?
Anything the Kings do this offseason will be with the purpose of not only trying to win in the first round but figuring out how they can win against elite teams in the conference.
The Kings have a six-player UFA class that’s led by Vladislav Gavrikov and Andrei Kuzmenko. Should they elect to get deals done for at least those two, it leaves the Kings with the financial flexibility to address the roster to compete against the best in the west at the most demanding time of the season.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Maybe more than just making the playoffs? They have the majority of their roster coming back, while also having quite a bit of cap space. Although nothing about that exact circumstance means there are guarantees, there is an expectation that the Kings will once again be challenging for a playoff spot.
But what they do in the offseason, however, will come with this one crucial question: Will it be the difference in the Kings advancing to at least the second round — or could it result in another promising run cut short by an early postseason exit?
Projected cap space: $21.88 million
2025 draft picks: 2nd, 4th (TOR), 5th (CBJ), 6th
What went right? Navigating Kirill Kaprizov‘s absence to make the playoffs. Before Kaprizov sustained the December injury that kept him out until April, the Wild were establishing a case for why they might be one of the best teams in the Western Conference. They were scoring enough goals in tandem with a defensive structure and goalie performances that allowed them to excel in tight situations.
But Kaprizov’s injury resulted in the loss of their leading scorer, which prompted the Wild to rely on their defensive identity in order to capture a wild-card spot and advance to the playoffs.
What went wrong? Their ability to win one-goal games went dormant. Bizarre as it sounds, the trait that allowed the Wild to manifest their playoff berth was also the one that doomed them to losing in the opening round for the fifth time in the past six seasons.
One of the arguments for why the Wild could reach the second round was because they won 18 of their 28 one-goal games in the regular season. But to lose not just one, but two games in a row to the Vegas Golden Knights by a single goal in overtime? It represents how, in future seasons, the Wild might not be that far off from reaching the second round for the first time since the 2014-15 season.
Keys to the offseason: They have lots of cap space. That’s not always been the case in Minnesota. But it will be this offseason for a franchise that now has the necessary space to strengthen a roster that’s had to largely rely on its homegrown talent.
One of the questions the Wild must answer, however, is what becomes of Marco Rossi. A first-round pick in 2020, Rossi emerged into a top-six center, but had 14 points throughout February, March and April after he scored that same amount in January. He bounced back to score two goals and three points in the playoffs entering Game 6, but had the third fewest minutes per game of any Wild player.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Maybe more than just making the playoffs? Having more than $20 million in projected cap space is going to make the Wild something of a player in free agency. How they spend that money could then set the expectations for the Wild. Even with that caveat, there is a belief that the 2025-26 season has a chance to be one that sees the Wild get additional offensive help to keep pace in the treacherous Central Division — with the intent of being a team that could create problems for opponents in the postseason.
Projected cap space: $18.44 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 3rd (FLA), 4th (SJ), 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? Ottawa took a crucial step forward by finally making the postseason. It signaled that, after a seven-year absence from the playoff field, the Senators’ rebuild is essentially over. And expectations should increase accordingly.
Ottawa showed it could be a stout defensive team, buying into the structure that first-year head coach Travis Green laid out and refused to back down from until his players embraced executing the right way. The Senators’ young stars — namely Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson — all showed significant growth in their games, and the playoff experience earned should be invaluable to them (and the rest of the Senators) moving forward.
Linus Ullmark also proved he could give Ottawa something it hasn’t had in years: a dependable No. 1 goaltender in whom to feel confident. The Senators’ foundation is on sound, solid ground.
What went wrong? The postseason is a different beast. It’s a lesson that can only be learned — and truly appreciated — once you’ve been there. Ottawa was an average offensive team throughout the regular season (collecting fewer than three goals per game), and its scoring dried up even further in the playoffs (sliding to just two goals per game). The Senators’ penalty kill also repeatedly let them down in the regular season (at 77.7%) and got even worse in the playoffs (68.8%).
Aside from a Game 5 shutout, Ullmark stumbled when the Senators needed him to stand tall, posting a poor .883 save percentage and 2.80 goals-against average in the postseason. It’s not that Ottawa didn’t come close in that first-round series against Toronto — three games were decided in overtime, after all, one of which the Sens won — but the Senators were just too green to take advantage of the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ occasional mistakes.
Now that the Senators have established their defensive game, it’s time they figure out how to bring a consistent offensive effort to match.
Keys to the offseason: The Senators have some in-house decisions to make on a pair of veteran skaters approaching free agency. Claude Giroux has been an integral part of Ottawa’s lineup and dressing room since arriving three seasons ago. If the 37-year-old plans to keep playing, it would behoove the Senators to retain his services, for depth and mentorship.
Then there’s Anton Forsberg. He worked in tandem with Ullmark this season, and should the 32-year-old leave, GM Steve Staios will be determining whom to pair with Ullmark in the coming seasons.
Ottawa has a handful of other forwards who could depart in free agency, so the Senators should expect to be somewhat active in free agency, shoring up their bottom six to ensure they can complement the elite scoring threats they have in Tkachuk, Stutzle & Co. Ottawa worked hard to be in a position where there aren’t many gaps to fill, though. The Senators don’t necessarily need to be splashy, just smart.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Ottawa should absolutely expect to compete for a playoff spot next season. It’s never easy getting over the disappointment of a swift postseason exit, but those frustrations will add fuel to the fire for next season to show that this was only the beginning of the Senators’ next chapter.
Projected cap space: $9.10 million
2025 draft picks: 2nd (LA), 4th (EDM), 5th, 7th, 7th (MIN), 7th (SJ), 7th (UTA)
What went right? Tampa Bay proved it was (still) a powerhouse in the regular season, with a league-leading offense (averaging 3.56 goals per game), a top-five power play (at 25.9%) and arguably the NHL’s best forward in Nikita Kucherov (who paced his peers with 121 points). And the Lightning managed to stay out front even after parting ways with former captain Steven Stamkos. His successor with the C — defenseman Victor Hedman — put in another elite campaign anchoring Tampa Bay’s blue line and penalty kill.
The Lightning’s old hands were up to their same tricks in every area, especially goaltending. Andrei Vasilevskiy earned yet another Vezina Trophy finalist nod on the strength of his season (.921 save percentage, 2.18 goals-against average). Jon Cooper, now far and away the NHL’s longest tenured head coach, capably guided Tampa Bay through the season’s inevitable rough patches, and somehow the Lightning always came out for the better.
They reached the postseason for an eighth straight year to make good on GM Julien BriseBois’ repeated decision to sacrifice long-term possibility (via draft picks) to stay focused on the chance of present-day success.
What went wrong? The Lightning were rightly expected to dominate offensively in the playoffs, too, and, well, it didn’t happen. Tampa Bay averaged the second-fewest goals per game among postseason teams (2.25), and Kucherov was particularly absent, with zero goals in the Lightning’s first four games against the Florida Panthers. And that power play? Nonexistent, at 1-for-15, as Tampa Bay was on the ropes going into Game 5.
The Lightning also had to deal with the theatrics of a physical first-round series that included Matthew Tkachuk‘s blistering hit on Jake Guentzel and losing Brandon Hagel twice (first to a suspension in Game 3 for his hit on Aleksander Barkov, and then to a vicious elbowing by Aaron Ekblad).
That was only part of the story, though. The Lightning were often their own worst enemy. Tampa Bay’s defense let them down in Game 4 when, after the Lightning had held a lead with the potential to tie their series 2-2, a pair of late goals against (scored 11 seconds apart) cost them a victory. It was a tough comedown, having already seen Hagel depart as well. In the end, the Lightning didn’t do enough with their opportunity, and it was over too soon.
Keys to the offseason: Tampa Bay will have some cap space (for once), so BriseBois can get creative to bolster the Lightning next season. What does that look like, exactly?
Is it right for Tampa Bay to try running it back again after a third consecutive first-round exit? Does BriseBois need to change tactics to see the Lightning’s chances improve at that most crucial time of year? BriseBois has mortgaged much of Tampa Bay’s future (via trade of players and picks) to keep pushing their chips in on another Stanley Cup run. Will he be aggressive in pursuing that again? If so, it’s all about the trade and free agent market for Tampa Bay.
The Lightning have just three picks in the first five rounds of the draft (one second, one fourth and a fifth), so maybe BriseBois could leverage those somewhere.
Otherwise, it will just be about filling in the gaps. Nick Perbix is the only UFA of note for BriseBois to consider, but he will want to ensure scoring depth won’t be an issue next year at this time. Adding another goaltender to play with Vasilevskiy (current backup Jonas Johansson is a UFA) would also be prudent.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: The Lightning’s regular-season performance put them in the running for an Atlantic title. It’s hard to think they’ll fall off entirely from there — not after BriseBois went all-in getting Guentzel on a long-term deal and when Kucherov is still in his prime. There’s little doubt Tampa Bay will push to be back in the postseason.
Projected cap space: $10.53 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (CGY), 2nd, 2nd (PIT), 3rd, 3rd (NJ), 3rd (VAN), 4th, 4th (BOS), 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? Montreal reached the postseason in Year 3 of what has been an arduous rebuild. That’s no small feat. The Canadiens stumbled out of the gate this season but didn’t let early adversity deter them from powering through.
When the Canadiens topped Buffalo 5-2 on Nov. 11, it was practically the start of a new season for the team — Montreal went 36-22-9 to the finish line, earning the league’s 11th-best points percentage in that stretch and eventually the Eastern Conference’s final wild-card playoff spot.
It wouldn’t have been possible without some exceptional performances from Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, a breakout showing from rookie defenseman Lane Hutson and strong secondary contributions from Patrik Laine, Juraj Slafkovsky and Jake Evans. Star prospect Ivan Demidov was a nice surprise addition to the playoff roster and did not look out of place.
Coach Martin St. Louis also deserves credit for treating the Canadiens like they deserved to be in playoff contention. That sort of confidence is what fuels a team to exceed expectations — which is exactly what Montreal was able to accomplish.
What went wrong? The Canadiens’ scoring was top-heavy in the regular season, and that caught up to them again in the playoffs. While facing the Washington Capitals was always going to be an uphill battle, Montreal made it harder when, outside of Caufield, Suzuki and Christian Dvorak, they didn’t have many offensive contributors.
Goaltending also became an issue after starter Sam Montembeault was injured in Game 3, to be replaced by backup Jakub Dobes. The latter performed admirably given he had appeared in all of 16 NHL games before the series, but Montreal losing its No. 1 in Montembeault certainly weakened the team as well. Dobes and his defenders lacked effective communication, and it cost the Canadiens on the scoresheet.
In the end, it was the Canadiens’ lack of postseason experience that shuttered their run. Washington capitalized on seemingly every Montreal mistake, learned behavior by a veteran team that has been used to winning. While the Canadiens were impressive in areas such as special teams during their run, it’s the details (like key faceoff wins, for example) that can be daunting. Montreal will have to learn from its mistakes to take positive steps next season.
Keys to the offseason: The way GM Kent Hughes has handled the Canadiens’ rebuild so far — words such as “slow” and “steady” come to mind — suggests he won’t be using Montreal’s playoff tenure as an excuse to start fast-tracking.
The Canadiens have two picks in each of the first two rounds of this draft; those selections will be vital for Montreal as it continues stocking the cupboards with young talent to carry the franchise forward. Hughes will have to address the goaltending situation in some fashion, though, likely with a free agent signee to support Montembeault while Dobes continues to cook in the minors.
And then there’s the club’s scoring depth. Hughes acquired Laine last offseason to boost the Canadiens up front — and he did add 20 goals and 33 points — but the often-injured forward appeared in only 52 games. Montreal needs more from Laine and a couple other skaters Hughes could see playing a top-nine role for the Canadiens. Even when Suzuki and Caufield are rolling, it’s not enough to expect they can carry Montreal’s offense again — especially come playoff time.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Montreal will be in the thick of another fight to earn an Eastern Conference playoff spot. The Atlantic might just be the league’s most competitive division, though. If the Canadiens want to stay in the mix again, some changes should be made to give them a boost over their division rivals.
Projected cap space: $13.86 million
2025 draft picks: 2nd, 2nd (EDM), 3rd (VGK), 4th, 6th, 6th (SJ)
What went right? New Jersey overcame significant adversities this season to be a playoff team. It’s a testament to the Devils’ resiliency that even after losing top skater Jack Hughes in March they managed to stay in the hunt and punch their ticket. The Hughes injury highlighted the seasons that some of New Jersey’s other burgeoning stars were having, including Jesper Bratt (in an 88-point campaign) and Nico Hischier (a dominant two-way center, who scored 35 goals).
The Devils owed a large portion of their success to improved goaltending from Jacob Markstrom — and GM Tom Fitzgerald for finally shoring up that position by acquiring Markstrom in the first place. The veteran was solid in the regular season, and soared during the Devils’ postseason run as one of the best goaltenders in any first-round series.
New Jersey’s first-year head coach Sheldon Keefe managed to implement a solid system and get the Devils to buy in, even when the going got tough. New Jersey should rightly feel good about what a fully healthy lineup can look like moving ahead.
What went wrong? Ah, injuries. They caught up big time for these Devils. Hughes was gone in March, while Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler missed significant time in the regular season before returning. And throughout New Jersey’s playoff run, its defensemen began dropping like flies, with Brenden Dillon, Luke Hughes and Johnathan Kovacevic all missing in action. Not even Markstrom’s brilliance could account for that many important players sitting out.
The Devils didn’t help themselves, though. New Jersey was a whopping 0% on the power play, averaged just 1.75 goals per game and struggled on the penalty kill (69.2%). Outside of Hischier — who collected three goals in the postseason — the Devils simply couldn’t get rolling offensively.
In a way, it’s hard to assess New Jersey’s efforts fully given how banged up it became. How much better might the Devils have been across the board had the infirmary not filled up? We’ll never know. It’s clear that Fitzgerald’s inaction at the trade deadline (where he made minor moves such as adding third-line center Cody Glass and blueliner Brian Dumoulin) hurt New Jersey in the long run.
Keys to the offseason: Fitzgerald has a few things to figure out for the Devils. His top priority is pending restricted free agent Luke Hughes and figuring out what the 21-year-old’s next contract will look like.
Then there’s New Jersey’s goaltending, and who will be Markstrom’s partner next season. Jake Allen is set to hit free agency, and Nico Daws may not be ready for full-time backup duty.
Free agency should be filled with skaters for Fitzgerald to parse through in order to revamp the Devils’ offense. The Devils have five veterans hitting unrestricted free agency, and a pair of RFAs in Glass and Nolan Foote. Inaction didn’t serve New Jersey well in the past, and there’s a need to infuse their lineup with at least a couple viable scoring threats to keep the Devils from turning top-heavy again next season.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: New Jersey has felt notoriously hard to predict in recent years. It has oscillated from winning a playoff round to not making the postseason at all. If the Devils can keep (most) everyone available next year, though — and make some offseason adjustments — they should expect to be top contenders in the Metro again.
The non-playoff teams
Projected cap space: $42.08 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (MIN), 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 7th (VGK)
What went right? Columbus stayed in the playoff race until the final week. That alone is a victory for this group. The Blue Jackets set out to play meaningful hockey in March and April and that’s what they did through a special season that will give Columbus confidence to enter 2025-26 as a viable postseason contender.
Zach Werenski had a Norris Trophy-caliber campaign, with a team-leading 75 points through 76 games. Rising stars Kirill Marchenko, Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli showed their continued maturity in great seasons. Overall, the Blue Jackets’ 11th-ranked offense (with 3.17 goals per game) exceeded expectations. Columbus showed real progress over the course of an emotionally turbulent season.
What went wrong? The Blue Jackets were bitten by the injury bug. Boone Jenner, Erik Gudbranson and Sean Monahan all missed significant time with various ailments. That hurt Columbus from the get-go, with no Jenner or Gudbranson for the first few months of the season.
The Blue Jackets’ goaltending was subpar too, with Elvis Merzlikins owning a middling .892 save percentage as the club’s No. 1. It’s no wonder Columbus finished sixth worst in goals-against average (3.42) and they were among the league’s worst teams in allowing third-period markers. The Blue Jackets’ youth shone through in good ways and bad throughout the year, particularly against tougher opponents, and it’s something they’ll have to learn from for the season ahead.
Keys to the offseason: Columbus has a pair of first-round draft choices to play with this season, and that’s a good thing for GM Don Waddell. He knows how green this franchise still is, and wants to keep building a foundation that the Blue Jackets benefit from for years to come. There are also important RFAs to negotiate with, including Dmitri Voronkov and Daniil Tarasov.
In free agency, Waddell can shift focus to Columbus’ netminding. Merzlikins hasn’t come up with a season save percentage above .900 since 2021-22. Can Columbus expect to take a step forward if Merzlikins is their go-to guy in the crease next year? Can they give the reins to Jet Greaves, who closed out the season with a dominant stretch?
Waddell wasn’t active at the March trade deadline so as not to disrupt his club’s chemistry. This summer he can make some meaningful changes that give the Blue Jackets a solid boost by September’s training camp.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Columbus should be pressing for a playoff berth. They nearly corralled one this season, and the confidence that injected into the team could carry over to next season and beyond. As long as the young players can stay on their positive trajectory, there’s considerable depth for Columbus to lean on.
Projected cap space: $36.21 million
2025 draft picks: 1st (FLA), 1st (NJ), 2nd (COL), 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? The Flames made progress in more ways than one. They went from finishing with 81 points in 2023-24 to challenging for a playoff spot until the final week.
But what might get lost is that they established an identity. Whether it be with their roster, their coaching staff or their front office, change has been a constant with the Flames for the last few seasons. This season saw them attain and then maintain a level of continuity that could see them contend for a playoff spot — if not make the playoffs — next season. Dustin Wolf was a revelation in goal, cementing his status as the Flames’ No. 1 goalie moving forward, and making a Calder Trophy case.
What went wrong? An offensive disconnect. Normally a lack of goals can be traced back to challenges in several areas. But a look under the hood at their underlying numbers paints a confusing picture.
The Flames were top 10 in shots per 60 minutes, and were 13th in scoring chances per 60. Yet they were in the bottom third when it came to high-danger chances per 60. When combined, those factors led to the Flames finishing with the second-fewest goals per game, and having the NHL’s second-worst shooting percentage.
Keys to the offseason: Securing new deals for pending restricted free agents Kevin Bahl, Matt Coronato and Connor Zary is a priority, given what they mean to both the present and future of the Flames.
After those deals are in place, the Flames will still have quite a bit of cap space to address their needs — perhaps with some more consistent sources of offense? Whatever the front office decides, they must do so with the notion of getting one step closer toward reaching the postseason.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Making the playoffs. Whenever teams get this close to a playoff spot without making it, there’s an expectation that the following season should include a playoff berth. Some of that will depend upon what happens in the offseason. Not only with the Flames, but with other clubs in a competitive Western Conference where 11 teams will finish with 89 points or more.
Projected cap space: $39.55 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd (WPG), 3rd, 3rd (TOR), 4th (DET), 5th, 5th (EDM), 6th, 7th
What went right? The team’s young core made progress. Unlike his rookie season, Leo Carlsson wasn’t limited to a certain number of games, and the result was a 20-goal season. Goaltender Lukas Dostal won 20 games, and was in the top 20 in save percentage. Cutter Gauthier flirted with a 20-goal season as a rookie. Jackson LaCombe went from 17 points in 71 games in 2023-24 to having 14 goals and 43 points in 70 games, averaging an additional three minutes of ice time. Mason McTavish had his first 20-goal and 50-point season.
Those players are all key building blocks, and all played a role in the Ducks finishing with more than 70 points after consecutive, sub-60-point seasons.
What went wrong? The defensive infrastructure around Dostal. After finishing the 2023-24 season with a minus-91 goal differential, the Ducks needed to be better in the defensive zone in 2024-25. This season, they did cut the differential to minus-34, which speaks to some progress. But their underlying metrics prove there’s still more work to be done. Natural Stat Trick’s data shows that the Ducks gave up the NHL’s most shots per 60 minutes, the most scoring chances per 60 and the most high-danger chances per 60.
Keys to the offseason: Again, it goes back to the young core. Dostal is a pending restricted free agent and is expected to receive a significant increase from his $812,500 salary. McTavish timed his first 20-goal season well; his entry-level contract ends, meaning he’ll also need to sign a new deal this offseason. Securing those contracts should still give the Ducks quite a bit of cap space as they seek to add more help around their core for the next phase.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: In a way, they appear to be on the same path the Utah Hockey Club took in 2024-25. Although the playoffs might not be in reach next season, the Ducks were nearly at a point-per-game pace. Another year of experience for their core — coupled with what they could do in free agency — could have them contending for a wild-card spot until next season’s final weeks.
Projected cap space: $27.14 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd (CAR), 2nd (STL), 3rd, 4th (PHI), 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? The best thing Boston did this season was lean all the way into a rebuild. It was inevitable that after a decade of perennial playoff contention the Bruins were going to take a step back — and take stock. GM Don Sweeney’s early coaching change — from Jim Montgomery to Joe Sacco — didn’t give Boston a boost, and by the trade deadline it was smart for Sweeney to be a big-time seller. The Bruins acquired valuable draft capital — including four picks in the first and second rounds — and they added some intriguing new faces such as Casey Mittelstadt and Fraser Minten. Some burgeoning late-season chemistry between David Pastrnak and Morgan Geekie is a nice bonus for the Bruins as a potential pairing to watch.
What went wrong? Boston lost seven of its first 11 games. That was hardly a good omen for what was ahead. The Bruins’ calling card has long been its defensive play, so losing top defenseman Hampus Lindholm to a season-ending patella fracture in mid-November was crushing. Montgomery was fired the same week. Jeremy Swayman — following a contentious contract dispute — was mediocre in net. And there was little help from the Bruins’ offense in making up for any of their defensive and goaltending issues. Boston is 29th in scoring, averaging just 2.63 goals per game, and on the power play (15.5%).
Charlie McAvoy‘s upper-body injury in early February at the 4 Nations Face-Off was another gut punch. It’s no wonder Sweeney keyed on major changes — such as moving on from captain Brad Marchand — considering how much these Bruins pale in comparison to what previous teams produced.
Keys to the offseason: The Bruins need a permanent head coach. Sweeney could opt to remove Sacco’s interim tag or explore who else is available. Once Sweeney has that person in place, they can start preparing for an important upcoming draft in which Boston will have a high first-round selection and two picks in the second round. Those picks take on a greater meaning now considering the Bruins don’t have a deep prospect pool. The focus then shifts to determining which of Boston’s young players will be ready to take a leap in the NHL, and how the Bruins will prioritize adding veteran players around them in free agency. The rebuild will be in full swing.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Boston still has a 40-goal scorer in Pastrnak. If Lindholm and McAvoy return to full health, and Swayman can be a game-changer in net again, there’s hope for the Bruins to be a fun club to watch — if not one that reaches the playoffs after a one-year absence. It’s not as if they’re starting from scratch.
Projected cap space: $22.32 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th (MIN), 5th, 6th, 7th, 7th (NSH), 7th (WSH)
What went right? Buffalo proved this season it is capable of being a playoff team. The Sabres overcame a slow start to hold a postseason slot at Thanksgiving, which is often a good indicator of a club’s potential to stay there through the season. Tage Thompson had a terrific season, scoring 44 goals and averaging a point per game; when the Sabres do finally break through, they’ll have him in large part to thank for keeping their offensive engine going. Rasmus Dahlin also continues to be a standout with 62 points from the back end.
GM Kevyn Adams was able to trade underperforming Dylan Cozens and added Josh Norris (injured for most of his Sabres’ tenure to date) for the future.
What went wrong? The Sabres have failed to qualify for the playoffs in 14 straight seasons. That’s tied with the New York Jets for the longest active drought in major professional sports. But Buffalo had its chance. The Sabres were in the mix until a 13-game winless streak through December torpedoed things. And Adams didn’t do anything at the trade deadline to make Buffalo better despite its many flaws. The Sabres’ collective goaltending was awful, with the league’s second-worst save percentage. Buffalo gives up the fourth-most goals per game (3.47) and that’s all the more disappointing considering the Sabres are seventh in scoring (3.27).
The Sabres can be their own worst enemy. Ditto with how Buffalo started strong — with the third-most first period goals — only to offer up the fourth most in the third period. The Sabres’ attention to detail wasn’t where it needed to be, and expected growth from players such as Jack Quinn and Zach Benson didn’t materialize.
Keys to the offseason: This was Adams’ fifth season in Buffalo — all, obviously, without a playoff appearance. Will ownership keep him on for another kick at that can? It was Adams who installed Lindy Ruff as coach (again) last season, and that alone might keep Adams around. The Sabres have several personnel decisions to make from there. Quinn, JJ Peterka, Bowen Byram, Devon Levi and Ryan McLeod are all restricted free agents. Who will Buffalo retain — and who winds up without a qualifying offer?
Then it’s on to additions from the outside. The Sabres need stronger goaltending next season, and if Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Levi can’t provide it as a tandem, then Adams must explore the market for a veteran who can either support one of them or take the reins as a No. 1. That would go a long way in supporting Buffalo toward consistently being the team it has been of late, winning 10 of 13 through March into April — when, unfortunately, it was all too little, too late.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Dare we say it? Playoffs. That’s where Buffalo absolutely must get. And they have the talent to do it. It’s on management to fill in the gaps and get the Sabres out of their historic skid.
Projected cap space: $29.17 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (TOR), 2nd, 2nd (DAL), 3rd, 4th, 4th (NYR), 6th, 7th
What went right? The Seth Jones trade. After Jones told Blackhawks management that he wanted to be moved to a contender, how would they strike a deal for a player with three more years on his contract worth $9.5 million annually?
Blackhawks GM Kyle Davidson found a suitor in the Panthers, and received a 2026 first-round pick and goalie Spencer Knight, while retaining $2.5 million of Jones’ salary each of the remaining seasons. The trade got the Blackhawks their goalie of the present and future in Knight, and provided them with another first-round pick for 2026, extending a streak of multiple first-round picks dating to 2022.
What went wrong? There was only nominal improvement after one of the more aggressive free agency windows of any team last offseason. They had 22 wins through 78 games, and though they trimmed their goal differential from minus-111 in 2023-24 to minus-74, it was still a season of frustration that peaked with the firing of coach Luke Richardson after 26 games, replacing him with interim coach Anders Sorensen.
Keys to the offseason: Does Sorensen get the full-time coaching job, or do the Blackhawks go in another direction? There’s also a discussion about what to do with Ryan Donato, who led the team in goals this season. Donato is a pending unrestricted free agent, who is having the best season of his career. The Blackhawks obviously have the cap space, but might it be better spent elsewhere?
Once they have agreed upon new deals for their four-player restricted free agent class that includes Philipp Kurashev and Arvid Soderblom, the Blackhawks could use the remaining money while having one eye on what lies ahead after the 2025-26 season.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Next season will be a crucial one, mainly because another season without significant progress could prompt the front office to face bigger questions; after all, the Blackhawks are looking to reach the 70-point plateau for the first time since 2019-20.
So, what does the future look like? Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar and Knight, who are all central to their future plans, are going to be entering the final years of their respective deals. Bedard and Nazar are coming off their entry-level contracts, and Knight would be seeking his third deal — but his first as a No. 1 goalie.
Projected cap space: $22.98 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd (NYR), 4th (TB), 5th, 6th, 7th, 7th (STL)
What went right? Detroit showed its tenacity and resilience multiple times this season. The Red Wings overcame a slow start by leaning into a coaching change — from Derek Lalonde to Todd McLellan — that ignited the team’s December surge into a playoff spot. Detroit fell in and out of contention until February and looked ready to go on a run. Leading that charge was captain Dylan Larkin — with 29 goals this season — and Lucas Raymond, who leads Detroit in points with 75. Raymond’s development has been especially positive for Detroit and signals how he can continue carrying their offense into the future. The Red Wings also must feel good about being buoyed by a fourth-ranked power play (27.6%).
What went wrong? The Red Wings’ defensive play has been a hindrance for years. This season was no exception. Detroit gave up the 12th-most goals against per game (3.14), while ranking 23rd in scoring (2.81). That’s a tough combination to overcome. The Red Wings’ putrid penalty kill was also worst in the league (69.6%), another indication of their defensive deficiencies.
GM Steve Yzerman didn’t do much at the trade deadline to address any of the Red Wings’ problems, and Yzerman’s continued failure to add impact players in free agency is showing in how Detroit continues to stop short of reaching the playoffs. The Red Wings need consistency, and a strong defensive structure players buy into and can execute. There wasn’t enough of it this season to get Detroit out of its nine-year playoff drought.
Keys to the offseason: Yzerman isn’t one for making wild moves. But even he must be open to trying something new. There are internal choices to make, including on key RFAs Albert Johansson and Elmer Soderblom, and veterans Patrick Kane and Alex Lyon are both pending UFAs. How drastic Yzerman gets in terms of personnel turnover could foretell where Detroit goes from here.
The Red Wings need more scoring and have been top-heavy in that respect, relying on Larkin, Raymond and Alex DeBrincat for a large chunk of their output. Improving depth there, with proven defense-minded talent, will help the Red Wings keep up with their Atlantic rivals. Generally boosting the blue line wouldn’t hurt, either.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Detroit has playoff potential. They’ve shown it repeatedly. The Red Wings’ goal going into next season should be as contenders for the postseason. The question is whether Yzerman provides Detroit with more resources to get there.
Projected cap space: $17.26 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (TB), 1st (VGK), 2nd, 2nd (TB), 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 6th (COL)
What went right? Their prospects. Of note, Matthew Wood averaged more than a point per game at the University of Minnesota before signing a professional contract. Joey Willis went from scoring 29 goals in his first two OHL seasons combined to having 27 goals this season. At the NHL level, Justin Barron, Zachary L’Heureux and Fedor Svechkov had expanded ice time.
What went wrong? Everything else. They went from being a playoff team that spent big in free agency to get Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, Brady Skjei and Luke Schenn to having the third-worst record in the NHL. They were consistently disconnected. They are sixth in shots per game, but last in goals per game. They have one of the top 10 penalty kills yet gave up the seventh-most goals per game.
Keys to the offseason: With three first-round picks and more than $17 million in cap space, the Preds have options — especially if their first-round pick becomes the No. 1 pick via the draft lottery. But the Predators are trying to find a way that allows them to win now and in the future. It’s why they began shifting course toward playing young players after a poor start to the season. Now it’s all about strengthening that plan as they seek to recover from one of the more trying seasons in franchise history.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: The Preds can go in a number of directions. They entered the 2023-24 season as a team on the rise and made the playoffs. They entered 2024-25 as a team that could be in the conference finals discussion before ending up in the lottery. If they aren’t in the playoff mix next spring, there will be some big questions for the front office to answer.
Projected cap space: $28.90 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? The Islanders showed determination by putting themselves into a contending position this season, particularly during an 11-3-0 run through January ahead of the 4 Nations Face-Off break. They benefited from some terrific individual performances along the way, most notably from Bo Horvat (with a team-leading 54 points) and Anders Lee (pacing New York with 28 goals).
Noah Dobson continued to show why he’s one of the league’s burgeoning stars on the back end and Alexander Romanov appears increasingly comfortable in his role. GM Lou Lamoriello also deserves credit for the tidy trade of Brock Nelson, which primarily netted New York (among other things) a first-round pick in 2026 NHL draft and promising prospect in Calum Ritchie.
What went wrong? The Islanders failed to truly excel in any category. They’re 25th in the scoring (averaging 2.77 goals per game) and gave up the 13th-most goals against (3.14), with a putrid, 31st-ranked power play (13.1%) and equally awful penalty kill (72.0%). Losing Mathew Barzal to injury for all but 30 games this season certainly took its toll in basically every respect. Starting goaltender Ilya Sorokin has been fine (with a .905 save percentage) but hardly the spectacular figure he was in helping New York reach the playoffs in recent seasons.
The Islanders didn’t have enough difference-makers, and Lamoriello did not bring anyone on board before the trade deadline. In fact, Lamoriello held onto guys such as Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Kyle Palmieri — a pending UFA — and seemingly missed out on a chance to add draft assets for a much-needed overhaul. By the time head coach Patrick Roy was publicly calling out forward Anthony Duclair and subsequently seeing Duclair take a leave of absence from the team, it was clear how tensions were boiling over.
Keys to the offseason: New York must at least consider taking a big swing. But is Lamoriello going to do that? The Islanders should have about $28 million in cap space to use for next season, and they’ve got a couple of high draft picks. It’s time to decide though what direction the franchise is headed. Can Lamoriello steer this group back to contending status? Or is a rebuild on deck?
There are also critical personnel decisions to make. The Islanders have a large collection of pending RFAs, including Dobson, Romanov, Scott Perunovich, and Adam Boqvist. Who New York keeps will have a major impact on their blue line. The Islanders again need to address their scoring depth. Barzal’s absence absolutely hurt New York. Shoring up the offense so it can withstand injury will go a long way. But step one is getting honest about where the organization is right now, and whether they keep pushing to compete in the Metro or take a step back and retool.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: The Islanders sputtered this season after making consecutive playoff appearances — both with first-round exits. Unless there’s some significant changes in the offseason, one-and-done in the postseason is about as good as New York can expect.
Projected cap space: $9.67 million
2025 draft picks: 2nd, 3rd (SEA), 4th (ANA), 4th (COL), 5th (MIN), 6th, 6th (SEA), 7th
What went right? New York didn’t need any added distractions this season, so the fact GM Chris Drury was able to offload underperforming former captain Jacob Trouba early was a shrewd move and kept the Rangers from dwelling on that particular problem all season. The Kaapo Kakko trade was a necessary swap as well that was swiftly handled. And bringing on J.T. Miller was, at least, an attempt to give New York a needed boost up front.
Meanwhile, New York saw growth from some of its young players, especially Will Cuylle (with a career-high 20 goals and 43 points this season). Artemi Panarin has done his part to lead the Rangers on offense (37 goals and 87 points) and Adam Fox anchored the blue line with trademark efficiency.
What went wrong? Oh boy. Are the Rangers this season’s biggest disappointment? It’s hard to argue otherwise. Last season’s Presidents’ Trophy winners are a shadow of their former (114-point) selves. All the previous characteristics New York displayed as regular-season champions evaporated. The Rangers lacked consistency (they haven’t won three games in a row since November), veteran contributions (Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider have been particularly lackluster), a functional power play (ranked 27th at 17.6%) and failed time and again to show any sort of resiliency (they have won five games all season when trailing by one in the third period).
The lack of urgency and determination that elevated New York teams of the past has been missing. But why? Was it the rumored locker room issues? Has coach Peter Laviolette’s message been falling on deaf ears? Whatever the reason, New York never truly put its game together. To be officially eliminated from the postseason in a dispiriting 7-3 loss to Carolina on Saturday was a fitting salvo in a lost season.
Keys to the offseason: Can Laviolette survive to coach another season? That’s question No. 1 — and a bafflingly one to even be considering given he led the Rangers to their best regular season the season before. But it seems inevitable New York is going to make drastic changes after this clunker of a season.
Next, Drury must assess this Rangers’ core and figure out who to build around, and who to move out. The way Kreider and Zibanejad have struggled could lead Drury to find them new homes. And New York’s blue line is probably in need of a redo given the Rangers gave up the 14th-most goals against (3.10) and that’s with one of the league’s better goalie tandems in Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick. It’s not as if New York has to tear it all down. Drury must identify where the biggest leaks this season came from and do what’s necessary to patch the holes.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: New York can easily be a playoff team again next season. But it will require some form of change. To stand pat would send the wrong message about how poorly the Rangers performed this season. A chip on the shoulder will help New York get back to its potential.
Projected cap space: $25.64 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (COL), 1st (EDM), 2nd, 2nd (ANA), 2nd (CGY), 2nd (CBJ), 3rd, 5th, 5th (CAR), 6th
What went right? Philadelphia had its moments. The arrival of Matvei Michkov signaled the start of a new era for the Flyers in which Michkov — a 20-year-old dynamo leading all NHL rookies with 24 goals — has seemingly unlimited potential to drive their offense into the future. And Philadelphia has other young players — such as last year’s No. 13 pick Jett Luchanko — to be excited about too after his brief NHL audition.
The Flyers’ old guard wasn’t all bad, either. Travis Konecny had another strong season with a career high in points ahead of his long-term extension starting next season. Ultimately, Philadelphia can’t stay in a rebuild mode forever and it was positive to see GM Danny Briere actually make some moves — such as trading Joel Farabee and Scott Laughton and firing coach John Tortorella — to help kick-start Philadelphia into 2025-26.
What went wrong? The Flyers were too big a mess in too many key categories. Philadelphia’s collection of goaltenders produced a woeful .888 save percentage at even strength, the worst recorded by a team since 2009-10. Samuel Ersson wasn’t the reliable No. 1 the Flyers needed, and it showed too often in how games slipped away. Philadelphia’s putrid power play was another problem — 30th in the league (14.9%) — and a 24th-ranked offense hasn’t been much help. By the time Philadelphia had lost 11 of 12 through mid-March, it was no surprise Tortorella was gone. Something is clearly still missing in Philadelphia.
Keys to the offseason: First, Philadelphia needs a head coach. Briere will decide quickly whether that’s via removing the interim tag from Brad Shaw or a new addition. There’s much work to be done with the next permanent bench boss in place.
Philadelphia absolutely must capitalize in the draft. They hold three first-round picks and four second-round choices. There’s a chance if the Flyers draft high enough that one of those first-rounders steps into their lineup at some point next season. Briere must be smart in how he cashes in on that capital. Then it’s all about development. Philadelphia doesn’t project to be overly active in free agency given the amount of talent it already has in the NHL and waiting in the wings. What the Flyers need are for those players to take steps forward so when training camp comes around there is serious competition for spots, and it sets up Philadelphia for a competitive season.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: This is the fifth consecutive season Philadelphia has missed the postseason. The Flyers must at least challenge well into April for a spot next season. Briere has been patient with this group continuing to grow and it’s about time those investments paid dividends.
Projected cap space: $24.58 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (NYR), 2nd (WSH), 3rd, 3rd (MIN), 3rd (OTT), 4th, 5th (CHI), 5th (NYR), 6th, 7th
What went right? Pittsburgh can always count on Sidney Crosby to breathe some sort of life into their season, and the captain delivered again with a 30-goal campaign that suggests the 37-year-old isn’t slowing down. And that’s a great thing — because the Penguins’ recent youth movement might signal brighter days ahead. GM Kyle Dubas brought up Rutger McGroarty — acquired via trade earlier this season — and Ville Koivunen to get Pittsburgh’s next wave ready with some NHL experience. Smart decision. The Penguins needed to end the season on a high note, and showcasing what the franchise has coming seemed invigorating for old and new skaters alike.
What went wrong? It was death by a thousand cuts in Pittsburgh. The Penguins don’t have the depth to compete with other Eastern Conference powerhouses — outside of their top line (with Crosby, Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust mostly), there wasn’t enough consistent scoring. Even Evgeni Malkin struggled with only 15 goals this season.
That dearth of scoring issue was amplified by the Penguins’ problems keeping pucks out of their net. Tristan Jarry flamed out as the team’s expected No. 1 goaltender, being demoted to the AHL along with his 3.31 goals-against average and .884 save percentage through mid-January. To be fair, Jarry (and the Penguins other netminders) got no help from a leaky blue line that surrounded the second-most goals per game (3.58) this season. It would have challenged Pittsburgh to overcome its issues in only one phase of the game, let alone all three.
Keys to the offseason: Pittsburgh doesn’t appear close to firing coach Mike Sullivan, so that allows the Penguins to hit the ground running again in figuring out how to capitalize on its youth movement. McGroarty and Koivunen will be counted on to compete for slots in training camp.
Then it’s on Dubas to address the Penguins’ lack of scoring with some strategic veteran additions. The market should play out in Pittsburgh’s favor there — and offering the incentive of potentially skating alongside Crosby never hurts in a negotiation. And the Penguins’ defense? It can’t stand as is. If Dubas is still trying to avoid a full-scale rebuild, then it’s crucial to use this offseason to find roster balance between the Penguins’ present and future additions. Some degree of outside help is required to make that happen.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: It’s not reasonable to say Pittsburgh makes it back to the playoffs — unless there are some key changes. If the Penguins rightly address their leaks, then there’s talent enough to put Pittsburgh back as a playoff contender. But that’s a mighty large question as this season comes to a close.
Projected cap space: $42.19 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 1st (DAL), 2nd, 2nd (OTT), 3rd (COL), 4th (STL), 4th (WPG), 5th (COL), 7th (NJ)
What went right? The blueprint for the future. Star rookie center Macklin Celebrini leads the team in points, and fellow star rookie forward Will Smith is fifth. They used the trade deadline to add a pair of first-round picks; they’ll have two first-rounders in 2025 and again in 2026, continuing a trend since 2023. Even though they’re going to finish with the NHL’s worst record for a consecutive season, the Sharks have already shown some sense of improvement given they went from a minus-150 goal difference to minus-98 entering the final week of the regular season.
What went wrong? Well, there was quite a bit. But that’s to be expected whenever a team is in the midst of a rebuild.
The Sharks were in the bottom 10 in goals per game, the power play, scoring chances per 60 minutes, shots per 60 and high-danger chances per 60, which explains their offensive struggles. On defense, they gave up the most goals per game, had the worst penalty kill, and were in the bottom 10 in most scoring chances allowed per 60, most shots allowed per 60 and most high-danger chances allowed per 60.
Keys to the offseason: Do they get the No. 1 pick for a consecutive year? Or will it be No. 2 or No. 3? Whatever happens, this will be the third straight draft cycle and the fourth time in the past five in which the Sharks have a lottery pick. Picking that high along with having a second first-round pick will certainly advance their rebuild.
Then there’s the fact they’ll have more than $42 million in cap space, which can be used to address their roster — with the caveat that the Sharks might not be major players in free agency for at least a few more years.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Continuing to watch the progress made by Yaroslav Askarov, William Eklund, Celebrini and Smith, among others, is going to be the priority. The Sharks will seek to make more improvements while further developing those franchise cornerstones in Ryan Warsofsky’s second year behind the bench. But there’s also a possibility the Sharks could either sign players in free agency or move on from players on their current roster ahead of the deadline to add even more draft capital for their future plans.
Projected cap space: $21.75 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 2nd (TOR), 4th, 4th (DAL), 5th, 7th
What went right? All three of the trades they made this season. Moving on from Will Borgen led to them getting a one-time No. 2 overall pick in Kaapo Kakko, plus draft capital. At the trade deadline, they acquired a pair of first-round picks in 2026 and 2027 in exchange for Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde. Parting ways with Brandon Tanev netted them a second-round pick in the 2027 draft. Kakko has 10 goals and 29 points in 46 games for the Kraken as part of a season in which he set a career high with 43 points.
What went wrong? Between their underlying defensive metrics and the fact they sent Philipp Grubauer to the AHL? It wasn’t the most consistent season for the Kraken when it came to goal prevention. Having a new coaching staff included the departure of assistant coach Jay Leach, who played a crucial role in the Kraken’s defensive identity. This season, they were in the bottom 10 in shots allowed per 60 minutes, scoring chances allowed per 60 and high-danger chances allowed per 60. The underperformance from Grubauer didn’t help, and in fact, Joey Daccord (who began as the backup) was one of their more consistent performers.
Keys to the offseason: Dan Bylsma’s coaching staff helped pull the Kraken from the bottom five in goals per game in 2023-24 to being around league average this season. Could they find a defensive version of that solution heading into 2025-26, with the idea that it might provide the Kraken with the consistency that has eluded them as a franchise? That is one of the most significant questions facing the Kraken now that they have missed the playoffs in three of their first four seasons.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: The Kraken must be in contention for a wild-card spot (at minimum), or there will be some big questions to answer for the front office at this time next year.
Projected cap space: $21.53 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th
What went right? Quite a bit. The trade during draft weekend for franchise defenseman Mikhail Sergachev set the stage for a season in which the franchise made real strides. Before moving to Salt Lake City, the Arizona Coyotes had one 80-point season since 2014-15. The Utah Hockey Club had 84 points with four games left. The team was still fighting for a playoff berth entering the final two weeks of the regular season, which was another step forward for the core — and proves that bigger things could be on the horizon.
What went wrong? Overtime and shootouts. Entering the final two weeks of the regular season, only the Flames and Canucks had more overtime losses than Utah, two teams that were also chasing a Western Conference wild-card spot. But losing those 12 games in overtime or a shootout demonstrates how Utah was close in many games. If it can get on the winning end of those extra-time coin flips next season, the results will be different too.
Keys to the offseason: Remember how the Coyotes were hamstrung by a need to be miserly with cap space? The Utah Hockey Club doesn’t have that issue. That much was made clear last offseason when GM Bill Armstrong invested $22 million for each of the next two seasons in bolstering the defensive unit. Utah will have more than $21 million in space this summer, which is enough to improve a roster that could seriously challenge for a playoff spot. A top priority? Improving an offense that was 21st in goals per game, with a power play that was 15th.
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Making the playoffs. It’s really that simple. Utah has a core that has gone through its growing pains. It’s a group that has shown it can make progress from one year to the next. Nearly the entire roster is either under contract or team control for next season, and the front office has enough cap space to add the sort of players who could help clinch a playoff berth in the club’s second season in Salt Lake.
Projected cap space: $15.08 million
2025 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd (SJ), 4th (OTT), 5th, 6th, 7th
What went right? Despite all the inconsistencies, the numerous injuries to key players, and the J.T. Miller-Elias Pettersson friction, the Canucks were still in the hunt for a wild-card berth entering the final two weeks of the regular season. Yes, there were those who had strong individual seasons, including reigning Norris Trophy winner Quinn Hughes and Pius Suter, who had his first 20-goal effort and more than 40 points. But those performances could only get the Canucks so far, in a season in which they will miss the playoffs after winning their division and coming within a game of the conference finals a year earlier.
What went wrong? All those inconsistencies, those numerous injuries and the Miller-Pettersson friction.
One detail that speaks to those inconsistencies is that the Canucks were among the top five in the NHL in terms of fewest shots allowed per 60 minutes and scoring chances allowed per 60 — and yet were 19th in goals allowed per game. It’s what made the need for scoring depth even more crucial. This became more evident in the wake of trading Miller to the Rangers and trying to find ways to replace a forward with three consecutive seasons of more than 80 points.
Keys to the offseason: What happens to head coach Rick Tocchet? Does he stay on his one-year option as a bridge to a longer-term contract? Or could he be swayed to leave, which would then leave the Canucks searching for a fourth coach since 2020?
After the coaching situation is resolved, what happens to Brock Boeser? A six-time 20-goal scorer, he’s a pending UFA who could command a significant payday should he reach the open market. Do the Canucks ink him to a long-term deal?
Realistic expectations for 2025-26: Add the Canucks to the list of teams whose situation could become clearer once free agency ends. They have most of their team either under contract or team control for next season. But two of their three leading goal scorers — Boeser and Suter — are pending UFAs, whereas there is also uncertainty surrounding Tocchet.
Getting those questions answered along with addressing their other concerns could provide a stronger grasp for how the Canucks navigate next season. But a return to the postseason is certainly within grasp.
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
Just when it looked as if the Carolina Hurricanes were going to force a Game 6 after scoring a pair of first-period goals, the Florida Panthers scored the three in the second. And when it looked as if the Hurricanes were going to at least force overtime with a third-period goal from Seth Jarvis? That’s when the defending Stanley Cup champions put an end to the discussion, with captain Aleksander Barkov using his strength to fend off Dmitry Orlov to set up Carter Verhaeghe for the series-clinching goal in their 5-3 win Wednesday in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals.
Returning to the Stanley Cup Final to defend their crown is only the start for the Panthers. This is now the 11th time in the past 12 years in which a Sun Belt team has played in the Stanley Cup Final, a distinction that began in 2014 with the Los Angeles Kings and was interrupted in 2019 when the Boston Bruins faced the St. Louis Blues.
Also, a team from Florida (the Tampa Bay Lightning is the other) has won the East in six straight seasons, which is also the same length of the current streak of Sun Belt teams to reach the Cup Final. Furthermore, the Panthers are also the third South Florida professional team to reach the title game or title series in their respective sport for three straight years, joining the Miami Dolphins from 1971 to 1973 and the Miami Heat from 2010 to 2014.
Although they avoided being swept, the Hurricanes were eliminated in the conference finals for the second time in the past three seasons. They’ll now enter an offseason in which they’ll face questions about their roster, and what must be done to get beyond the penultimate round of the playoffs.
Ryan S. Clark and Kristen Shilton look back at what happened in Game 5, along with what lies ahead for each franchise.
Florida was well-positioned for a victory Wednesday. The Panthers had their injured skaters back — Sam Reinhart, Niko Mikkola and A.J. Greer had all been impact players in some form — and they should have added a spark. But it didn’t look as if the Panthers were benefiting from their return early, as the team looked slow out of the gate. Gustav Forsling‘s turnover sent Sebastian Aho on a breakaway that he turned into a 1-0 lead for Carolina.
Florida also couldn’t capitalize on its power plays, which was not great — especially considering Aho’s second goal of the period gave the Hurricanes a 2-0 lead through 20 minutes.
But then the Panthers did what they do best: pounce. Matthew Tkachuk‘s power-play goal cut the deficit in half and Evan Rodrigues had the score tied 30 seconds later. Then it was Anton Lundell giving Florida the lead. That’s just how the Panthers roll — deep. Rodrigues was the Panthers’ 19th different goal scorer in the postseason.
Even though Sergei Bobrovsky looked shakier than usual in the first period, he responded with a strong finish through the final 40 minutes. And Florida’s penalty kill stepped up to stifle the Hurricanes’ power play (which was 0-for-4). The Panthers tightened up and stayed that way through the third period to deny Carolina a chance to force a Game 6.
Florida was not flawless — giving up a goal to Jarvis midway through the third was a bad look — but Verhaeghe scored the winner (off a brilliant assist from Barkov) to make Florida’s just-enough effort sufficient to snuff out the Hurricanes’ flame. And Sam Bennett‘s empty-netter ensured it was three straight Eastern Conference titles for the Panthers. — Shilton
0:53
Verhaeghe puts Panthers back in front
Carter Verhaeghe fires home a big-time goal to give the Panthers a lead late in the third period.
Everything the Canes did in the first period of Game 5 was an extension of how they operated in Game 4. They had a plan, and it was a course of action that saw them take advantage of mistakes such as the ones that led to Aho scoring the goals that staked Carolina to its 2-0 lead. There was something else too, specifically in the way the Hurricanes defended themselves in the midst of a scrum with about five minutes left that showed a fight that wasn’t always seen in the series.
A two-goal lead after one period for a team that was 6-0 this postseason when they scored first was a good sign. The Hurricanes’ defensive identity carried over from their season-saving Game 4 performance. It was enough to suggest for at least an intermission that a Game 6 could be in play. Then came the quick back-to-back goals from Tkachuk and Rodrigues in the second period before Lundell scored a little more than four minutes later to put Carolina behind.
Those goals — coupled with the fact the Panthers limited the Hurricanes to only two shots on goal in the first 10 minutes of the final period — initially made it seem as if the series was over. That’s until Jarvis scored a tying goal and reignited some pushback from the Canes. Or rather, it did until Barkov showed what makes him one of the game’s premier players by holding off Orlov and creating the space to set up Verhaeghe for the winning goal. — Clark
Big questions
Can the Panthers use rest as a refresher?
Florida hasn’t had consecutive days off at this point since early in their second-round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs. And the Panthers are ailing to some degree. All those injured skaters clearly aren’t fully healthy; Eetu Luostarinen left Wednesday’s game after a cross-check from William Carrier, and you know plenty of guys who have been in the lineup every night are craving some downtime.
The Panthers have an opportunity to breathe and reboot after a long string of games, and that could be invaluable in how they show up to the Cup Final. They could know their next opponent as soon as Thursday, but it might also be a few more days before the Western Conference finals is settled.
Florida will have a slight edge either way in the rest department, and capitalizing on it could be a game-changer. The Panthers remember the toll it takes on the body to travel long distances (like from Fort Lauderdale to Edmonton?) in a Final. It’s critical to take advantage of, well, every advantage. Even if it means being Dallas Stars fans for a spell — and hoping the two potential foes can tire each other out for another few games. — Shilton
How aggressive are the Canes going to get this summer, knowing next year might be their strongest chance to strike?
Possessing more than $28 million in cap space, per PuckPedia, presents the idea that the Hurricanes could be a major player in free agency. It’s a level of flexibility that championship contenders covet because it’s so hard to attain once they have several members of their core under long-term contracts.
That’s a problem the Hurricanes don’t have — at least not yet.
They have seven players signed to deals longer than three seasons. It’s a group that includes core members such as Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jaccob Slavin, Andrei Svechnikov, Aho and Jarvis. But there are considerations to make given that Jackson Blake, Scott Morrow, Alexander Nikishin and Logan Stankoven are all going to be pending restricted free agents after the 2025-26 season, who will then be in need of new deals.
Though there’s a need for the Hurricanes to try to win now, this is also a franchise that has made a point of building large portions of its roster through the draft. Now, the Canes must balance an approach that has allowed them to be a championship contender with one that sees them take the next step, and that will dictate how their front office handles this offseason. — Clark
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Greg Wyshynski
NHL teams head into this offseason with an understanding of where the salary cap is climbing over the next three seasons. It’s projected to rise to $95.5 million next season; $104 million in 2026-27; and then up to $113.5 million in 2027-28.
That could lead to more teams comfortably retaining their own players on expiring contracts. Or it could lead to those players receiving inflated offers in free agency, as a rising cap means rising chaos.
Here’s a look at the unrestricted free agent field, organized into different tiers. There are also some significant restricted free agents, too — like forwards Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs), JJ Peterka (Sabres) and Marco Rossi (Wild); and defensemen Evan Bouchard (Oilers), Noah Dobson (Islanders) and K’Andre Miller (Rangers). It’s anyone’s guess if last season’s offer sheet fun was an anomaly or the new normal.
The contract terms and average annual contract values are courtesy of PuckPedia. In the case of players whose salaries were retained in transactions, we’re listing the full average annual value of their contracts.
Which players are you hoping your team signs this offseason?
The free agent who will earn the most attention this offseason.
Age: 28 | 2024-25 cap hit: $10,903,000
Marner’s noncommittal answers at Toronto’s postseason media availability did little to discourage the notion that the winger — who has played his entire nine-year career with his childhood team that drafted him fourth overall in 2015 — is done in Toronto. It might be time for a change: Blaming Marner for the franchise’s playoff failures has become an annual rite, and he’ll easily break the bank in unrestricted free agency. The lure to leave has never been stronger.
Over the past five seasons, six players have more points than Marner (450 in 357 games): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Artemi Panarin and David Pastrnak. Marner has the fewest goals scored (138) of that group, but he’s significantly better defensively than most of that lot: His 14 shorthanded points in that span tie him with Aleksander Barkov, who is currently collecting Selke Trophies like they’re Pokémon.
Marner’s points-per-game rate over the past five regular seasons is 1.26. It dips to 0.93 in the playoffs during that span. Although he has 42 points in 48 games, Marner has been called “passive” and much worse in the playoffs. Former NHL player Jordan Schmaltz said Marner bails out of physical plays in the postseason like he has “a parachute” on his back.
All of this is to say that Marner is a complicated acquisition. The skill is unquestionable. The will, when the games matter most, has been questioned annually. Who wants that on their roster, and what is it worth?
It was reported at one point that the Leafs were considering a deal for eight years and $13.5 million per season, which would have made him the team’s highest-paid player annually over Auston Matthews ($13.25 million). Mikko Rantanen, who would have been the belle of the free agent ball had he not signed with the Dallas Stars, is making $12 million annually over eight years in a state with no income tax, for context.
The Carolina Hurricanes tried to acquire Marner for Rantanen but were rebuffed by the player, who had a full no-movement clause — and a son who would be born in May, making that decision completely understandable. They’ve got the cap space, and the need, to be interested in Marner again.
Teams on the rise such as the Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks and Utah Mammoth have been mentioned for Marner — if he still wants some of that Original Six flavor, playing in the Windy City while threading passes to Connor Bedard wouldn’t hurt.
Teams that love to make their offseason splashes such as the Florida Panthers and the Vegas Golden Knights have been speculated, as have the Los Angeles Kings and New York Islanders who could look to do something big. There has even been talk about a reunion with former Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas at the Pittsburgh Penguins — heck, if the rap on Marner is that he can’t figure out playoff hockey, you could do a lot worse than having Sidney Crosby as your tutor for a couple of seasons.
All of this is assuming he leaves Toronto. While it certainly looks like that’ll happen, let’s all remember the golden rule of NHL free agency: His stuff is there.
Tier 2: The impact players
These are established players who can play key, immediate roles for a team.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $4.425 million
Bennett is essentially the anti-Marner: The majority of his value is derived from his win-at-all-costs postseason play, with the “costs” typically being the physical wellbeing of opponents. Bennett is a dependable regular-season performer, as he had 25 goals and 26 assists this season for the Panthers to go along with 90 penalty minutes.
He’s going to be paid handsomely this summer. Perhaps by someone looking to have him be the last piece of their championship puzzle; or perhaps as a Stanley Cup-winning teacher who can instruct a middling team how to take the next step.
The assumption is that someone is going to price the Panthers out of Bennett, but let’s remember two things here: He loves playing for Florida, and GM Bill Zito knows what an essential ingredient Bennett has been in their postseason success — and that Bennett comprises a dynamic duo with star Matthew Tkachuk. The two sides have engaged in contract talks during the season.
Age: 28 | 2024-25 cap hit: $6.65 million
There’s probably more interest outside of Vancouver in signing Boeser than within the Canucks organization, which has sent mixed signals about retaining him. He is one season removed from a 40-goal campaign and has eased concerns about his ability to remain in the lineup for a full season.
There’s been heavy speculation that the Burnsville, Minn., native could find his way to the Wild, but don’t count out potential suitors such as the Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $6 million
Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has done an impressive job dispelling the “no one wants to sign in Winnipeg” accusation, having gotten Mark Scheifele, Connor Hellebuyck and Neal Pionk to re-up in the past few years. Ehlers is his latest test.
“We’ll put our best foot forward with him to try to make our case to be a unique Jet-for-life-type player,” Cheveldayoff said.
A consistent point producer, Ehlers put his best foot forward toward a free agent payday with his best points per 60 minutes average (3.5) in five years. He is an offensive force — when he is in the lineup, as Ehlers has played over 70 games just once in the past four seasons, and he has missed time in the playoffs, as well.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $7.5 million
The common thinking when the Panthers acquired Seth Jones from the Blackhawks was that the team would let No. 1 defenseman Aaron Ekblad walk as a free agent. But Zito has been adamant that the team could still retain the career Panther, even with Jones adding $7 million to their blue line and with Florida having other contractual business to address (like a potential new deal for Bennett).
With options such as Jakob Chychrun having re-signed ahead of free agency (eight years, $72 million with Washington), Ekblad is easily the best big-name D-man available — and one with a Stanley Cup ring, no less. He had 33 points with an average ice time of 23:31 in 56 games this season, which was truncated by a 20-game suspension for violating the terms of the NHL/NHLPA performance-enhancing substances program.
Age: 37 | 2024-25 cap hit: $6.125 million
There’s been no better advertisement for the star winger’s value than what he has done with the Panthers after they acquired him from the Bruins. He has brought a veteran tenacity to their bottom six, while occasionally popping up to play with Aleksander Barkov. He has produced, too, with 13 points in 16 playoff games.
As coach Paul Maurice noted, the Panthers needed a player as vocal and media-friendly as Marchand to take the pressure off some of the more serene talents on the team.
If he doesn’t remain in Sunrise, there will be no shortage of teams interested in adding his winning pedigree — although salary and term will be the trick in signing him. Let’s face it: There wouldn’t be a next chapter more interesting than Marchand signing with the Maple Leafs, the team he has tormented for years — but he has recently admitted to cheering for the Leafs as a kid growing up in Halifax.
Age: 33 | 2024-25 cap hit: $6 million
Nelson was one of several players the Avalanche added in their trade deadline shopping spree that couldn’t get them past Dallas in the opening round. Nelson had six goals and seven assists in 19 games for the Avs in the regular season but went scoreless in four of their seven playoff games against Dallas.
Was the fit good enough for both that he seeks to extend in Colorado, or are there other destinations for Nelson to bring his variety of skills and get some extra contract term in the process?
Age: 34 | 2024-25 cap hit: $11 million
While Mitch Marner was noncommittal about his future in Toronto, Tavares did everything but belt out a version of “And I Am Telling You I’m Not Going” from “Dreamgirls” after their playoff elimination.
“I’ve expressed my desire to stay and wanting to make it work,” the veteran center said.
Do the Leafs bring him back at the right price point, or is Tavares another roster sacrifice made in the name of changing the mix after their playoff disappointment? One intriguing potential destination: Utah, which could use both a big-name free agent signing and a veteran presence in the middle.
Tier 3: The best bets
These players have shown they’re worth the investment.
Age: 34 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $3 million
Duchene has found a fit in Dallas, and Dallas found a fit in Duchene. He was one of the best value signings last offseason, inking a one-year extension worth $3 million before tallying 82 points in 82 games, his best offensive season since 2021-22 with Nashville. His playoff output through 16 games was less exceptional with just one goal and five assists.
Given the lack of unrestricted free agent veteran scorers with his credentials, there could be temptation to check how green the grass is elsewhere. But it’s possible Duchene is following that late-career path of other veterans: Taking a series of one-year deals to remain with a team he likes.
Age: 29 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5.875 million
Gavrikov just completed a two-year deal that he signed with general manager Rob Blake in 2023. The wrinkle here: Blake is no longer the GM, with Ken Holland now at the helm in Los Angeles.
Gavrikov had a strong defensive season with the Kings and chipped in 30 points (five goals, 25 assists), which was the second-highest total of his six-season career. He was solid when paired with either Mikey Anderson or Jordan Spence.
All of this it say that the Kings should seek to retain Gavrikov. But if his new deal is too rich for what Holland wants to do with the rest of this roster, other teams will gladly add him to their blue line.
Age: 37 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $6.5 million
Barring something unforeseen, Giroux should extend his relationship with the Senators before free agency hits. He had 50 points in 81 games this past season, his third with Ottawa, which made the playoffs for the first time in eight seasons.
There’s no reason to believe he won’t still be a Senator next season, but if he shakes loose, he has enough offensive pop left to help someone.
Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5,166,666
He was coveted at the trade deadline as a quintessential checking center with Stanley Cup championship experience. Gourde ended up going back to the Lightning from the Seattle Kraken, for whom he tallied 14 points in 21 games but was a nonfactor in five playoff games.
GM Julien BriseBois has said the team acquired Gourde with the idea of keeping him beyond this season. But as Steven Stamkos will attest, that usually means it’ll happen based on the Lightning’s economics, which might not sync with Gourde’s.
Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5 million
One of several great moves made by Stars GM Jim Nill this season, Granlund was rescued from last place San Jose, for which he posted 45 points in 52 games. Granlund had 21 points in 31 games for Dallas then nine in 16 playoff games while skating on the “Finnish Mafia” line with Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz.
Someone is probably going to overpay for Granlund, whose uptick in goal scoring has coincided with pending free agency. But he has produced points wherever he has played (Pittsburgh excluded).
Age: 34 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5 million
Palmieri offers new Islanders general manager Mathieu Darche one of his first challenges. It’s clear that former GM Lou Lamoriello wanted to extend the winger, hanging on to him at the trade deadline. There’s virtue to that: Palmieri registered 30 goals and 24 goals over the past two seasons, and offense isn’t exactly in abundance on the Islanders’ roster.
That said, it’s high time for New York to turn over the roster Lamoriello built to diminishing returns, and Palmieri has been there since 2021.
Age: 28 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $6.75 million
Provorov is a good skater who can play on the power play and the penalty kill while munching considerable minutes (23:21 per game). He’s a very solid puck mover who has elite puck-retrieval skills. If the Blue Jackets retain him, he can be the veteran anchor for their second pairing behind Zach Werenski.
They hung onto him at the trade deadline, and general manager Don Waddell said he wants to sign him this summer. If Provorov hits the open market, he won’t be the only GM with that aim.
Tier 4: The best values
Under-the-radar gems, analytics darlings and difference-makers with low-cost contracts.
Age: 27 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.25 million
This isn’t the first time Beauvillier has been in this tier, but his season with the Penguins and the Capitals underscored how valuable he can be on a budget contract, especially his six points in 10 playoff games with the Caps in their brief playoff run.
Strong underlying numbers, good output and still only 27 until next month.
Age: 31 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1 million
If it wasn’t for that other Connor stealing all the attention in Edmonton, perhaps more people would have appreciated the regular season Connor Brown had for the Oilers — 13 goals and 17 assists in 82 games, skating to a plus-9 in 14:01 of average ice time per game — on a steal of a contract.
It took his playoff outburst — five goals and three assists through 14 games — to really grab some attention:
A hard-working, pace-setting player.
Age: 36 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.25 million
“Daddy” had an impressive walk year with 20 goals and 20 assists in 80 games. He saw similar averages in the first year of his two-year deal with Dallas. He is never getting back to the offensive numbers he posted in his prime, but at the right average annual value, Dadonov can be an offensive strength in the regular season.
Age: 33 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.15 million
The former Anaheim Duck was a trade-deadline pickup for New Jersey who was pressed into more service than expected due to injuries to the Devils’ defensive corps in the playoffs. In their five-game series against Carolina, Dumoulin averaged 29:21 per game in ice time, skating over 36 minutes in two overtime games and playing well in the process.
The two-time Cup winner with Pittsburgh still can bring it in the postseason.
Age: 26 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.5 million
Yes, that’s Dante Fabbro of the Why on earth did the Nashville Predators put Dante Fabbro on waivers last season? fame. The Preds’ loss and the Jackets’ gain, as Fabbro had 26 points in 62 games, skating to a plus-23 with Columbus as Zach Werenski‘s partner.
The underlying numbers reaffirm he was great on both ends of the ice. Obviously, a lot of that is playing with a Norris Trophy finalist, but Fabbro earned his time with Werenski.
Age: 31 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.75 million
The former Boston Bruins defenseman had a quietly strong season for the Penguins with one goal but 39 assists — 24 of them at even strength. Defense was never his calling card, but offensively, he was solid in traditional stats and analytics.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.075 million
Wait, a former Buffalo Sabres forward being acquired by the Golden Knights and finding his game again? Never seen that before …
Anyway, Olofsson had 15 goals and 14 assists on a bargain-basement “show me” contract. He has demonstrated in the past that, when healthy, he has a ton of offensive upside.
Age: 34/2024-25 cap hit $5 million
There’s a reason the Golden Knights ran it back with Smith at the trade deadline. He is a perfectively serviceable depth forward who is going to produce decently on offense and can contribute on both special teams.
He is fine if cast in the right role — that is, not a top-line winger — as the Rangers discovered.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.6 million
Suter is teetering on the brink of a potential overpay, after setting career highs in goals (25) and points (46) in a contract year with the Canucks. But his goal production has been steady in limited roles throughout his career, and he does enough away from the puck — according to the analytics — that even a dip in last season’s numbers won’t make a multiplier on his cap hit regrettable.
Tier 5: The boom-or-busts
Players who have the ability to justify the investment or whose contracts could eventually become an eyesore on PuckPedia.
Age: 35 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $9.5 million
Benn signed his eight-year contract in July 2016, but it somehow feels much longer ago than that. Perhaps because of his 16-year tenure with Dallas; when Benn was a rookie, Mike Modano was still on the Stars. But also because this contract was a topic of debate from the moment it was signed.
While Benn’s most productive offensive days are behind him, he has still managed 49 points in 80 games this season in a limited role; he has been under 16 minutes in average ice time for the past three seasons.
GM Nill said Benn will be a Dallas Star for life, but the two decided to have this season play out before talking extension. Benn’s value is in his leadership, physicality and intangibles. But Dallas or whichever team signs him needs to tread lightly in AAV and term here.
Age: 40 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $8 million
The beard, the ranch, the mysterious bag filled with mysterious items. There are few NHL players who have inspired the kind of lore that Brent Burns has. He also used to inspire a lot of offense, but that production has fallen off steeply over the past two seasons — from 61 points to 43 points to 29 points in 82 games this season, the lowest average of points per 60 minutes of his career.
Is this run the end of the line for Burns? He hasn’t said. But there’s always going to be a market for a puck-moving defenseman in the NHL who can log 20 minutes per game.
Age: 29 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $2 million
Donato had an all-timer walk-year bump this past season, setting new career highs in goals (31) and assists (31) in 80 games with the Blackhawks. He was talking to Chicago about a new deal around the trade deadline, and the Hawks opted not to move him. That’s an indication they see him as part of their group moving forward. Having chemistry with Connor Bedard probably doesn’t hurt.
The questions now: How does one quantify that in a contract? And can Donato repeat the feat in a noncontract year?
Age: 30 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $2.5 million
Drouin recaptured his offensive game with Colorado, which acquired him with the encouragement of his junior hockey teammate Nathan MacKinnon. It was a heartwarming story. Less so was the fact that, once again, the injury bug munched on him this past season.
He had 37 points in 43 games, showing that when he’s in the lineup he can be effective. Operative phrase: when he’s in the lineup.
Age: 36 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $4 million
We almost put “Showtime” in the “best bets” category given how he outperformed his incentive-laden, one-year contract with Detroit last season by tallying 21 goals and 38 points in 72 games. He played well with longtime linemate Alex DeBrincat and responded well when Detroit hired Todd McLellan to take over as coach.
The issue with Kane is on the other side of the puck, where he was analytically the weakest defensive forward on the Red Wings.
Age: 29 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5.5 million
Kuzmenko fit really nicely with the Kings after they acquired him from the Flyers. He seemed to be the player Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe had been waiting for to join their line. Assuming new GM Ken Holland sees it the same way, it’s going to be intriguing to find out how that is valued in regard to AAV and term.
If Holland doesn’t, then Kuzmenko will be onto a fifth team in three seasons, tantalized by his offensive pop and power-play prowess.
Age: 27 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $4.5 million
The Rangers traded the 27-year-old to the Avalanche at the trade deadline. He’s a solid defensive defenseman who could complement a puck-moving partner, like he did in New York with Adam Fox.
But at this point in Lindgren’s NHL career, it’s practically predestined that he is going to either play through injuries or miss some time because of them.
Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $7.75 million
Orlov surprised many the last time he was a free agent by signing a short-term, high-AAV contract with the Hurricanes. He had a slight uptick in offensive production this season but remained just above replacement level as a defender. Orlov has been especially rough in his own end in the playoffs.
While the Canes could let him walk, there’s likely value in keeping Orlov around as a partner and mentor to rookie Alexander Nikishin, who looks like something special.
Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $3 million
What was expected to be one of the best value signings in the NHL last offseason never really worked out that way for Skinner and Edmonton. He had 16 goals and 13 assists in 72 games, skating just 12:60 on average. He did appear in one playoff game against the Kings, his first postseason action of his 15-year career.
Skinner is two seasons removed from a 35-goal campaign with Buffalo.
Age: 37 | 2022-23 cap hit: $10.5 million
We know what kind of player Toews was for the Blackhawks: a Selke Trophy-winning captain who won three Stanley Cups and a Conn Smythe, one who was still putting up numbers (31 points in 53 games) deep into the Chicago rebuild.
But we don’t know what kind of player he is now, having last appeared in a game back in April 2023 before stepping away from the NHL for health considerations and personal growth.
Toews has expressed an interest in coming back to play again. That has led to speculation about a comeback with everyone from his hometown Winnipeg Jets to the championship-starved Maple Leafs to the Oilers, for whom his old GM Stan Bowman now works.
Tier 6: The goalies
The few, the proud, the available goaltenders
Age: 34 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.85 million
Allen outplayed Jacob Markstrom in the regular season, with a higher save percentage (.908), more goals saved above expected (8.75) and just as many shutouts (four). The Devils like their goaltending, and GM Tom Fitzgerald has discussed negotiating to bring Allen back. But given the other options on the free agent goaltending market, someone might go higher than the Devils are willing to go.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.4 million
The former starter for the Colorado Avalanche, Georgiev was sent to the Sharks in the Mackenzie Blackwood trade. Things weren’t all the better for him there, as Georgiev had minus-13.7 goals saved above expected in 31 games for San Jose.
GM Mike Grier already told the goaltender he won’t be back with the Sharks next season.
Age: 32 | 2024-25 cap hit: $900,000
One of five goalies the Wings used this season, Lyon played 30 games for Detroit with an .896 save percentage and a 14-9-1 record. He was just under average in goals saved above expected at minus-1.63.
Age: 28 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.8 million
Signed in a cost-effective deal as a backup to Adin Hill, Samsonov had a second straight season with a sub-.900 save percentage, along with a minus-7.85 goals saved above expected.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.4 million
A former starter with the Devils, Vanecek split time between the Sharks and Panthers this season, and he wasn’t particularly great for either of them.
Age: 27 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.2 million
Dustin Wolf‘s incredible rookie season was supported by 30 games of perfectly average goaltending from Vladar, who remains a reliable tandem goalie if not much more.
Tier 7: The spackle
The other free agents available who don’t neatly fall into these tiers.
Mason Appleton, C, Winnipeg Jets
Cam Atkinson, RW, Tampa Bay Lightning
Joel Armia, LW/RW, Montreal Canadiens
Nathan Bastian, RW, New Jersey Devils
Nick Bjugstad, C, Utah Mammoth
Justin Brazeau, RW, Minnesota Wild
Cody Ceci, D, Dallas Stars
Tony DeAngelo, D, New York Islanders
Calvin de Haan, D, New York Rangers
Christian Dvorak, C, Montreal Canadiens
Lars Eller, C, Washington Capitals
Robby Fabbri, F, Anaheim Ducks
Radek Faksa, C, St. Louis Blues
Anton Forsberg, G, Ottawa Senators
Trent Frederic, C, Edmonton Oilers
Adam Gaudette, RW, Ottawa Senators
Tanner Jeannot, F, Los Angeles Kings
Kasperi Kapanen, RW, Edmonton Oilers
John Klingberg, D, Edmonton Oilers
Luke Kunin, F, Columbus Blue Jackets
Sean Kuraly, C, Columbus Blue Jackets
Oliver Kylington, D, Anaheim Ducks
Andrew Mangiapane, F, Washington Capitals
Anthony Mantha, RW, Calgary Flames
Brock McGinn, LW, Anaheim Ducks
Gustav Nyquist, RW, Minnesota Wild
Max Pacioretty, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs
Nick Perbix, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
Corey Perry, RW, Edmonton Oilers
Jeff Petry, D, Detroit Red Wings
Taylor Raddysh, D, Washington Capitals
Jack Roslovic, F, Carolina Hurricanes
Jan Rutta, D, San Jose Sharks
Brandon Saad, LW, Vegas Golden Knights
Nate Schmidt, D, Florida Panthers
Brendan Smith, D, Dallas Stars
Nico Sturm, C, Florida Panthers
Brandon Tanev, LW, Winnipeg Jets
James van Riemsdyk, LW, Columbus Blue Jackets
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