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Donald Trump has rolled the dice. He is gambling on being correct about two key variables.

First, he is banking on being right that the Iranian nuclear sites struck by the US have really been “completely and totally obliterated”, as he claimed.

US military officials have frequently said destroying the whole nuclear apparatus would be very hard and the more likely outcome of air strikes would be to set the nuclear programme back.

Follow latest: Iran considering ‘all options’ after US strikes

Donald Trump at a meeting in the Situation Room at the White House
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Donald Trump at a meeting in the Situation Room at the White House

The second gamble holds far more jeopardy. The president is betting Iran will not have the capability, or the guts, to hit any of the many US bases and diplomatic missions in the region or to meaningfully disrupt international shipping.

His hope is the moderates in the Iranian regime will now recognise their own strategic defeat and will adopt a position of dialogue and de-escalation.

Read more:
Starmer calls on Iran to ‘return to negotiating table’
What we know so far about US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities

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Trump: Iran strikes ‘spectacular success’

The best-case scenario now would be a repeat of history: a repeat of a moment when Mr Trump, in his first term, got lucky.

In December 2019 he made a decisive decision to order the assassination of the then-head of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani.

He had opted for a seismic retaliation in response to Iranian attacks on Americans in the region. In early January 2020, Iran’s most senior military figure was killed in a drone strike in Baghdad.

The region braced, and many predicted a huge Iranian counter-attack. But it didn’t come. There were isolated attacks, but nothing sustained.

 Donald Trump as he prepares to deliver White House address
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Donald Trump as he prepares to deliver his White House address. Pic : Reuters

Two weeks ago, Mr Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff warned an Israeli pre-emptive strike on Iran would prompt a massive Iranian retaliation. He predicted what he called a “mass casualty event” in Israel. That too has not materialised.

The US president is said to have been surprised and impressed by Israel’s defensive capabilities but also its offensive operations in Iran.

He seems to be convinced enough the Iranian response in the days ahead will be limp.

He cited the assassination of General Sulemani in his late-night address to the nation. He sees that as his success, a gamble that paid off.

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Iran threatens American soldiers and citizens

If he is right again on both of his new gambles – that he has destroyed the nuclear facilities and that Iran does not hit back with any effectiveness – then, just maybe, this will be a game-changing moment.

But if Iran manages even to hit one US base and kill some Americans, then the whole thing will spiral.

He made one more gamble this weekend. He bet his own base of supporters will be with him on this.

He is the president who campaigned on a pledge not to involve America in far-away wars, and yet he has just dramatically inserted himself into a new one.

He now needs to show them he is right, that this was a one-off game-changing strike of American might – strength to bring peace, he’d say.

In his short late-night address to the nation, he made a point of reminding America of Iran’s malign behaviour over decades – their weapons killed and maimed many Americans, he told them.

It was notable too that he was flanked by his vice-president, secretary of state and defence secretary. He doesn’t want to own this gamble alone.

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Regime change: Is Trump about to ‘Make Iran Great Again’?

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Regime change: Is Trump about to 'Make Iran Great Again'?

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The US bombs Iran. Three nuclear sites heavily hit. Cue condemnation from Iran – and promises of retribution.

As the Iranian foreign minister heads to Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin and discuss what to do next, we ask: what has happened, why did the Trump administration decide to take action, what’s the response domestically and internationally – and what on earth could happen next.

If you’ve got a question you’d like the Trump100 team to answer, you can email it to trump100@sky.uk.

Don’t forget, you can also watch all episodes on our YouTube channel.

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The Americans want the attack on Iran’s nuclear sites to be a ‘one-and-done’

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The Americans want the attack on Iran's nuclear sites to be a 'one-and-done'

The Pentagon briefing was big on what happened but short on detail of what happens next.

Neither defence secretary Pete Hegseth nor General Dan “Raisin” Caine, chair of the joint chiefs of staff, can answer that.

Mr Hegseth called the bombing an “incredible and overwhelming success” with “focused and clear” instructions from President Trump.

The focus now is on what follows and that’s not so clear.

The briefing laid out the details of the military deception plan behind Operation Midnight Hammer.

B-2 stealth aircraft were flown west towards the Pacific on Saturday as a decoy, while the B-2s with bunker-busting bombs on board flew east towards Iran.

Israel-Iran live: World continues to react to US attack on nuclear facilities

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What is Operation ‘Midnight Hammer’?

Mr Hegseth called it a plan that took months and weeks of positioning and came down, in the end, to “precision, misdirection and operational security”.

Gen Caine, Mr Trump’s top military man, offered a measured assessment. While Mr Trump had spoken of Iran’s nuclear sites being “obliterated”, Gen Caine revised that downwards when he spoke of “extremely severe damage”.

Full battle damage assessment will reveal the complete picture – only then can the mission’s success be measured in full, mindful that Iran had shifted at least some of its enriched uranium in the days before the strike.

On the politics of it, Mr Hegseth said this wasn’t about regime change in Iran. It might offer precious little reassurance to Tehran, particularly as he also said part of the operation was to defend Israel and the ongoing defence of Israel.

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What next after US-Iran strikes?

If the US is tethered to Israel’s interests to the extent of an unprecedented attack on Iran, where does its influence end?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared almost giddy in response to the US attack. He is a PM strengthened by Mr Trump’s spectacular response to his rhetoric around Iran.

Suspicions weren’t softened around Netanyahu’s influence over Mr Trump when Mr Hegseth was asked about the basis for the attack. He has long lobbied the US president on Iran being close to building a nuclear bomb, contrary to American intelligence which indicates otherwise.

Mr Hegseth was asked what was the new intelligence, was it American or from other countries? He avoided a direct answer, saying only that Mr Trump had looked at all the intelligence information and concluded Iran was a threat.

There were a number of questions about what comes next, with an assortment of non-answers in response from Mr Hegseth.

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Starmer reacts to US strikes on Iran

Read more:
Iran may not have lost its ability to make a nuclear bomb
Iran may decide that killing Americans is the best way to retaliate

A consistent line was that the US wanted Iran to negotiate peace, coupled with the threat of further aggression if it doesn’t.

The US defence secretary said Washington was in touch with Tehran privately and publicly, giving it every opportunity to come to the table, every opportunity for peace.

He made the point that America hadn’t targeted Iranian troops or civilians – clearly, a measure by the US to limit response and leave open a door.

The Americans want this attack to have been a “one-and-done”.

The scenario it’s left with, however, is an Iran talking of a diplomatic door closed and sending its foreign minister travelling to Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin.

Iran is wounded, no doubt. Combined attacks have left it degraded and, without a network of support in the Middle East, its ability to strike back is limited. For now, if not necessarily forever.

Donald Trump clearly enjoyed the sugar rush of military success but he will be wary of the come-down and all of its uncertainties.

In circumstances with world implications, he won’t be alone.

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Pakistan says it will nominate Donald Trump for Nobel Peace Prize for resolving its conflict with India

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Pakistan says it will nominate Donald Trump for Nobel Peace Prize for resolving its conflict with India

Pakistan has said it would recommend Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for his work in helping to resolve the recent conflict between India and Pakistan.

Some analysts in Pakistan have suggested the move might persuade the US president to reconsider potentially joining Israel in striking Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Pakistan has condemned Israel’s attack on Iran as a violation of international law and said it threatens regional stability.

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Trump: US ‘helped a lot’ with India-Pakistan

Last month a surprise announcement by Mr Trump of a ceasefire brought an end to a four-day conflict between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed states.

The US president has repeatedly boasted of averting a nuclear war and saving millions of lives, and has complained about not getting enough credit.

People light fireworks to celebrate Pakistan and India reaching a ceasefire deal in Hyderabad, Pakistan on 10 May. Pic: AP
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People in Pakistan light fireworks to celebrate the ceasefire deal. Pic: AP

While Pakistan agrees US diplomatic intervention brought the fighting to an end, India has disputed that, saying it was a bilateral agreement between the two militaries.

Read more:
Why intervention in Kashmir is a poisoned fruit

“President Trump demonstrated great strategic foresight and stellar statesmanship through robust diplomatic engagement with both Islamabad and New Delhi, which de-escalated a rapidly deteriorating situation,” Pakistan said.

“This intervention stands as a testament to his role as a genuine peacemaker.”

Mr Trump has long craved the Nobel Peace Prize, claiming he should have been awarded it for a variety of reasons.

In a post on his Truth Social platform on Friday, the president gave a long list of conflicts he claimed he had resolved, including Pakistan and India and the Abraham accords in his first term between Israel and some Muslim-majority countries.

“I won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize no matter what I do,” he added.

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Air India warned by watchdog over pilot scheduling breaches

Pakistan’s announcement it would nominate Mr Trump comes in the same week as its army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, met the US president for lunch.

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