Final 2025 NHL mock draft: Predictions for the top 32 picks
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Rachel Doerrie
The first round of the NHL draft is Friday night in Los Angeles, and for the first time, team personnel will not be centralized. No one will be reporting on who visited whose table, who was seen speaking in the dark corners of a tunnel or who is walking over to central registry. But the players will be in attendance, which should make for interesting draft photos.
Apart from Matthew Schaefer and Michael Misa, there is a ton of intrigue in this year’s draft class. There is no consensus after the top two, and there is good reason to believe we will see a ton of pick shuffling as early as the first round. With such volatility across draft boards, teams might want to move up or down depending on who is available, and teams with multiple first-round picks might raise eyebrows with their selections.
For the final mock draft, we will assume the selections will stay with their teams, but there will be mention of who might be selected if the pick is traded. For instance, it sure seems as if the Columbus Blue Jackets, Utah Mammoth, Boston Bruins and Vancouver Canucks could move their first-round selections for more immediate help, and those considerations will be made.
In a mock draft, it isn’t about which player is the best, it is about how the team drafting perceives the players available — and who they are most likely to select. In other words, this isn’t an exercise of “who would I pick if I were GM” as much as it is an exercise of “who is most likely to be selected if the pick isn’t traded.”
With that out of the way, here’s the final projection of the first 32 picks:
This is not rocket science and no one needs to overthink this. The James Hagens story — his being a Long Island native, and an Islanders fan — is a great one, and we will address that later, but Schaefer is the clear-cut best player available in this draft.
Many scouts believe he will become a franchise cornerstone defenseman capable of driving play at both ends of the ice. The Islanders are in a precarious position on defense with Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov in need of new contracts. Neither of those players will sign low-priced deals, and both have been rumored in trade discussions. Given that, the Isles clearly view Schaefer as the defenseman of the future. Should they elect to keep Dobson, the incoming Schaefer would allow the elder to slide into a role more suited to him and remove some of the heavy lifting.
Schaefer lost nearly his entire draft year to injury, and would almost certainly benefit from a year in the NCAA to continue developing. That seems unlikely. But even without that, the Isles can safely project him to step into their lineup in a significant role as a rookie. It wouldn’t surprise anyone to see Schaefer running the power play, logging top-four minutes and becoming a staple on the Isles’ back end before snow hits the ground this season.
2. San Jose Sharks
Michael Misa, F, Saginaw (OHL)
There seems to be some intrigue surrounding the Sharks heading into draft weekend, as they have a clear need on defense and are also believed to like Anton Frondell (a center). But passing on a talent such as Misa for any reason would be ill-advised. The gap between Schaefer and Misa exists, but the gap between Misa and the next tier is even larger.
Adding a dual-threat offensive dynamo with above-average two-way play to a young lineup that already has Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith is very exciting. Misa can play center or wing, but his two-way play is more valuable at center, and would give the Sharks a significant one-two punch for years to come. A top-six group that includes Celebrini, Will Smith, William Eklund and Misa — who are all 22 or younger — sets up the Sharks with a formidable attack and reliable two-way play drivers in the middle of the ice for years to come.
Misa brings dynamic scoring ability, excellent speed, and elite hockey sense to combine with a never-quit style. It’s not out of the question that he steps into the lineup this season and has a similar impact to what Celebrini did as a rookie in 2024-25 because he’s such a complete player, with professional habits all over the ice.
3. Chicago Blackhawks
Anton Frondell, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
This is where things start to get very interesting.
It is rumored that Chicago could move this pick, but if it doesn’t, Frondell or Porter Martone seem to be the most likely selections. Hagens would be the best available, but it seems as if Chicago wants a more sizable player to pair with Connor Bedard.
In this scenario, Chicago hopes Frondell can slot into the lineup behind Bedard and provide two-way value with an elite shot release and the ability to find open space to get his shot off. Frondell would benefit from another development season outside the NHL before making the jump to become a more well-rounded play driver.
When he’s ready, the Hawks can slot Frondell across from Bedard on the power play and have two players with elite release on their flanks. Ideally, Frondell drives a second line as a powerful two-way center and gives Chicago a formidable one-two punch for years to come.
4. Utah Mammoth
Brady Martin, F, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
There is a very real chance Utah doesn’t make this selection and trades the pick. If it does, I expect Hagens to be the selection by the acquiring team. But Utah has made it known it wants hard skill, and there are two players who fit that bill: Caleb Desnoyers and Brady Martin. Both are legitimate possibilities for the Mammoth, who want to add some beef to a top six that has Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther.
It is no secret that Martin is high on Utah’s list, and he cemented that status by making an excellent impression when he met with Mammoth brass at the scouting combine. The farm boy has lots of teams after him, including the Flyers and Bruins. Some believe he could be a Sam Bennett type of player who produces well below a point per game in the regular season but is a “mammoth” in the playoffs. Utah believes it needs some jam at the top of its lineup, and no one this high has more jam than Martin.
No team has scouted Martone more heavily than Nashville, and upper management was in the rink to see him on more than a few occasions. Martone might have the best hockey sense and vision in the draft class, and is also in the conversation for best puck skill. Tacking on an elite shot with his playmaking and you’ve got a 6-foot-3 forward with both hard and soft skill — and a sky-high ceiling.
He might not be Mikko Rantanen, but Rantanen is his second-closest comparable in my model, along with Cole Caufield — in terms of NHL potential, not size (obviously).
If you’re Preds GM Barry Trotz, you ask Martone to develop his physical game to become an imposing force and the makings of a dual-threat forward who will be a lot for opponents to handle. If they don’t take Martone, Trotz has been clear he values upside and skill. If he really wants to do that, Hagens feels like the guy. But there’s a sneaky hunch that Nashville could acquire an NHL player and more from the Isles in exchange for this selection if Hagens is available.
6. Philadelphia Flyers
James Hagens, F, Boston College (NCAA)
The Flyers need centers more than anything, and if Hagens falls into their lap at No. 6, they need to follow suit with their Matvei Michkov approach and take the kid who had no business being available to them. The possibility of adding Michkov and Hagens to their top line without drafting in the top five in those years would be astronomically valuable to the organization.
Hagens would immediately become the Flyers’ best prospect at center, and the team doesn’t need to rush him through school with Sean Couturier, Noah Cates and newly acquired Trevor Zegras already on the NHL roster. When he’s ready, Hagens can step in to provide a jolt of offense the Flyers sorely need. His speed, puck skill and excellent playmaking ability will fit nicely beside Michkov, especially if he regains his play-driving ability in another season at Boston College. The details of his game will allow him to earn the coach’s trust and become a staple of the Flyers’ offense for years to come.
7. Boston Bruins
Caleb Desnoyers, F, Moncton (QMJHL)
Another pick that could be on the move, but if the Bruins make this pick, Desnoyers would be a perfect fit for the organization. A French Canadian two-way center with excellent shutdown ability, and a clutch producer and leader in a Bruins uniform should sound pretty familiar to Bruins fans.
Desnoyers is a serial winner, and he plays his best when the games matter the most. He’s excellent in the tough areas, is a deft playmaker and has high-end hockey sense. His defensive game is already NHL-ready, and if he can improve his speed, the Bruins will have a legitimate offensive threat capable of handling tough matchups in key situations.
8. Seattle Kraken
Jake O’Brien, F, Brantford (OHL)
There’s a consensus group of six at the top of the draft after Schaefer and Misa, and Seattle probably takes whomever is left from that group. But the Kraken need a defenseman, and I could see them trading back a few spots to the range of Radim Mrtka and Jackson Smith.
If they stay at No. 8, I think O’Brien is the pick, unless they opt for Roger McQueen. Seattle is one of the deepest teams when it comes to young centers with Matty Beniers, Shane Wright and Berkly Catton all age 22 or younger. O’Brien is a high-end talent and might allow the Kraken to move Catton to the wing in the top six.
O’Brien brings more high-end playmaking than Wright and Beniers, and will have time to physically mature and add speed to hit his ceiling as a playmaking top-six center. He should become a playmaking force who quarterbacks the power play and makes his wingers a lot of money.
9. Buffalo Sabres
Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle (WHL)
The Sabres have a decent prospect pool, but the organization really needs high-end center and right-handed defensive prospects. Both Mrtka and McQueen should be available to them here, but it feels as if the big defenseman is their guy.
The 6-6, right-handed defenseman has projectable mobility and quality transition defending, and could be the perfect partner for Rasmus Dahlin or Owen Power. Adding Mrtka gives the Sabres another quality defenseman with projectable shutdown ability as the organization looks to end the NHL’s longest playoff drought.
10. Anaheim Ducks
Roger McQueen, F, Brandon (WHL)
The Ducks could very well trade this pick for current NHL help; GM Pat Verbeek already has been quite active this offseason. But if not, taking a towering center who is a top-five talent in the draft makes a lot of sense.
The Ducks took McQueen out to dinner at the combine, and appear to have done a significant amount of homework on his back injury. If the Ducks believe it won’t be an issue moving forward, adding a powerful 6-5 center who has the potential to be a dominant two-way force is a no-brainer. The only limit on McQueen’s ceiling is his body’s willingness to hold up. If it does, we’re talking about a player who could end up as the one of the best to come out of the draft class. That is worth the swing for the Ducks.
Holding two picks back to back, the Penguins might very well try to move up to nab an elite prospect — their pick value combined is nearly identical to the No. 3 pick, so moving up is probably not entirely out of the question. Failing that, the Penguins have an opportunity to add two significant players to their pipeline.
If McQueen is available, I think they take a long look. But adding Smith to their blue-line depth would be tidy business for the Penguins, who currently have Owen Pickering and Harrison Brunicke there. Smith is big, physical and has legitimate offensive upside. He should be capable of playing in a matchup role and driving offense from the back end. He’s poised with the puck and will be close to Penguins brass while he attends Penn State.
There’s a lot to like about the package Smith brings and the Penguins could use a player with his blend of size, skating, poise and offensive upside.
The Penguins land another top-10 talent here with Eklund. Carter Bear and Lynden Lakovic will also be options given that both have outstanding offensive talent.
But as for Eklund, he plays a style that translates well to the NHL and has the potential to produce 70-plus points in a top-line role. His excellent forechecking ability, willingness to engage physically, fearlessness driving to the middle of the ice and two-way play give him the tools to be a Seth Jarvis type of player.
He’ll probably be NHL-ready sooner than later, and for a team with as many veterans as the Penguins, that matters. Having Eklund learn from the future Hall of Famers in the twilight of their career could have a lasting developmental impact that vaults Eklund toward his ceiling as a first-line engine.
The Red Wings have a type, and luckily for them, a few players in their range fit the bill: Bear, Eklund and Justin Carbonneau. At least two, if not all three, could be available at this spot.
Bear’s elite instincts and playmaking ability are attractive to many teams, including Detroit. Combined with one of the best competitive engines in the draft class, Bear has all the hallmarks of a play-driving winger with reliable two-way play, similar to Zach Hyman.
The Red Wings have some quality young centers, and Bear’s blend of playmaking and net-front finishing ability could see him become a power-play operator and offensive facilitator. He’d be an excellent fit for the Red Wings as a projectable top-six contributor.
There’s a distinct possibility that Columbus trades this pick for immediate help. But if it doesn’t, this feels like the floor for Aitcheson, given the Blue Jackets’ need to add defenseman.
Though Logan Hensler is likely to be a consideration here — and they do like him a lot — there are only a few scenarios that Aitcheson gets to the Jackets’ second pick at No. 20, so it makes sense they’d take him here.
In Aitcheson, Blue Jackets are adding a raw defenseman who could become a menacing nightmare to play against while providing two-way value. As one of the more raw prospects, Aitcheson needs time to develop, but there is every reason to believe in his skill set to become a middle-pair defenseman who is difficult to play against, particularly in the postseason.
15. Vancouver Canucks
Braeden Cootes, F, Seattle (WHL)
In what is probably the worst-kept secret in the hockey world, Vancouver is after a center. The Canucks took Cootes to dinner at the combine, have scouted him heavily throughout the season and were very impressed by how he handled himself throughout the combine process. Jack Nesbitt could find himself here because the Canucks love their centers with size, but Cootes and Cole Reschny have higher ceilings.
Cootes should become a middle-six center with reliable two-way ability, excellent off-puck instincts and produce 55 to 65 points each season. If Aitcheson is available, they might not be able to resist the big, menacing defenseman.
The Canadiens have a dynamic offensive presence on their blue line in Calder Trophy winner Lane Hutson, and Reid could be a perfect partner for him. Montreal brass scouted Reid heavily this season, and have many believing it will target him with one of the team’s two first-round selections. The Canadiens are another team that could take Aitcheson, but Reid’s ability to drive play through excellent skating ability and sound decision-making is hard to pass up.
He has the tools to become a solid top-four defenseman, and doesn’t need to overextend himself on offense to provide value. He’s less risky than some of the other available defenseman, with projectable offense and excellent mobility to boost his transition value.
17. Montreal Canadiens
Justin Carbonneau, F, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)
I have Carbonneau higher on my personal board than most because I believe he has sky-high potential as a power forward. With Juraj Slafkovsky already in the fold, the Habs need some more size to complement Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Ivan Demidov.
Carbonneau has the potential to become a dual-threat forward in a top-six role, with high-end creativity. If everything clicks and his decision-making improves, there’s a chance Carbonneau becomes a powerful, play-driving forward. The Habs’ development staff is robust and has done excellent work. Given Carbonneau’s upside, which is significant, he is more than worth the swing for the hometown team.
Calgary needs some depth at center in its prospect pool, and Reschny is good value in this range. He’s a quality playmaker who facilitates offense, and has the best hockey sense of the centers in this range. He doesn’t come with size and will need to play on the inside of the ice to hit his potential of a second-line center, but the offensive tools are there.
The details of his game are nearly NHL-ready, with good battle success, connective play and forechecking. There’s potential to become a dual-threat playmaker and shooter, which is something the Flames covet.
19. St. Louis Blues
Jack Nesbitt, F, Windsor (OHL)
The Blues have used a lot of their best draft capital on defense, and the pressing need for centers in the pipeline can’t be ignored.
Nesbitt has received a lot of love from executives since the scouting combine, and could slide into the top 20. The big center is likely to top out as a third-line, two-way checker but could see elevated offensive potential if he adds speed. At 6-4, he brings size, strength, physicality and the ability to shut down opponents. That is attractive to many teams, including the Blues.
It’s not out of the question that the Blue Jackets take another defenseman with their second first-round pick, and I think it’s more likely than not. Lynden Lakovic would be a strong consideration if he’s available, but Hensler is someone the Columbus brass highly covets.
He’s a quality neutral-zone and transition defender because of his excellent mobility, allowing him to make proactive contact and keep a tight gap. The right-shot defender could become a quality No. 2 or 3 defenseman if he hits his ceiling and continues to develop his offensive game.
21. Ottawa Senators
Lynden Lakovic, F, Moose Jaw (WHL)
Lakovic makes a ton of sense for the Sens. Management seems to really like the big, dual-threat winger with untapped physical potential. He’s smart, moves very well for his 6-4 frame, and should have chemistry in the top six, regardless of which center he plays with.
If Lakovic can develop his physicality, the Sens have a legitimate dual-threat scorer with a power game who should be a difference-maker.
The freight train on skates is gaining a full head of steam heading into Friday night’s first round, and the consensus is that a lot of teams love his style of play and believe he’ll go in the early 20s. Teams with multiple first-round selections tend to take swings with their picks, and Prokhorov is certainly one.
The Flyers are likely to take a big swing with at least one of their firsts, and a sizable, violently physical kid who has raw offensive abilities that can translate into a power forward is exactly the kind of talent someone like new head coach Rick Tocchet would be very excited to develop.
Given where the Predators are selecting at fifth and 23rd, it is highly likely they take a forward at No. 5, if they don’t trade the pick. But given that their pipeline is thin on defense, Boumedienne makes a lot of sense for them here.
Trotz likes to swing on upside, and Boumedienne has the most upside of the defensemen in this range. He has legitimate offensive upside, is an effective breakout passer and is capable of playing a two-way transition game on a second pair. If Logan Hensler is available, he would be a major consideration, and Blake Fiddler is probably in the conversation as well, although the first two are the higher-upside options.
24. Los Angeles Kings
Blake Fiddler, D, Edmonton (WHL)
As noted in my prospect pool needs story, the Kings have almost nothing in the defensive prospect cupboard. Luckily for them, a 6-5 right-handed defenseman with NHL bloodlines is there for the taking in this scenario.
Fiddler is a mobile skater who eliminates play in transition. He has above-average puck-retrieval skills, and projects as a reliable shutdown defenseman at the NHL level. This is the right range for Fiddler, and he fits perfectly with what the Kings need, and will have time to develop into the big, shutdown guy the Kings will rely upon in the years to come.
More and more, I hear that teams are high on Nestrasil’s potential as a skilled power forward. At 6-5, he adds some much-needed size to the Blackhawks’ prospect pool without sacrificing potential.
He’s a longer-term project, but the blend of passing, hockey sense and playmaking is attractive. There is high-end upside as a power forward that is tantalizing, because he has a lot of room to fill out his frame. If he learns to leverage his physicality, he could be a space-creating winger who is capable of playing in the top six in a dual-threat role with a quality release. The upside here is worth the swing for a Chicago team that lacks a big power forward in their prospect pool.
Once thought to be top-10 prospect, Spence would be a great addition to the Preds’ prospect pool. I could see them taking goaltender Joshua Ravensbergen here, but the thought is he may be available when they pick again at No. 35.
Spence brings a good blend of speed, physicality and relentless two-way play. He’s the guy who will go get pucks, create space, forecheck to create turnovers and play in key situations. Spence has more offense to give, and there’s a real chance he becomes a pesty, second-line winger who can play tough matchups. The Preds don’t have a prospect like Spence, and he’d be good value if he can return to last year’s form.
The Capitals have a type, and they love to take swings. Their prospect pool needs a center badly, and while Milton Gastrin is more of a sure thing, getting Kindel — who notched 99 points in the WHL this season — at No. 27 is excellent value.
Many project Kindel to be a winger at the NHL level, but he has the hockey sense, playmaking and speed to be an NHL center. Kindel has a very similar draft-year profile to Brayden Point, and while Kindel may not turn into Brayden Point, the prospect of that is well worth the selection here.
28. Winnipeg Jets
Henry Brzustewicz, D, London (OHL)
The Jets’ prospect pool is really thin on defense, and their scouts have spent a ton of time watching London, so Brzustewicz will be familiar to them.
As the season progressed, Brzustewicz showed offensive instincts with his puck movement and rush activation. There is significant room for offensive growth, and he should be London’s premier defenseman next season. The right-shot blueliner gives the Jets a projectable transition defender with good puck-moving and skating ability who should comfortably fit on the second pair down the road.
The Hurricanes have a profile, and it is drafting prospects with high-end skill and projectable upside. It feels like they’re going to go with one of Ryker Lee or Cullen Potter.
Lee’s statistical profile is slightly better, and he owns elite playmaking, puck skill, a bullet of shot and offensive instincts. His ability to identify quiet areas and release a shot or make a deft play will translate to the NHL. His skating needs to improve to take advantage of those talents, but given that skating is the most easily improvable trait, Lee’s skill package could make him a home run pick.
If Potter is still on the board here, adding the fastest player in the draft would be great value for the Sharks.
While they’d probably prefer to take a defenseman, Potter is too good an asset to pass up for a rebuilding team, and his promising development at the NCAA level could see him become another piece of a highly skilled top six in San Jose. There’s room for some growth for Potter, and given his two-way development, the speedster with an excellent release gives the baby Sharks another offensive player with projectable defensive quality.
Adding a playoff-performing forward with two-way ability and a relentless playing style feels like the perfect Philadelphia Flyer move.
Zonnon has some of the best details in the draft, with excellent forechecking, good defensive instincts and a willingness to get in the dirty areas to win battles. He plays one of the more translatable games of the remaining players, and never cheats for effort.
The Flyers will need players who can fill those roles as they look to contend in the future, and Zonnon has projectable offensive playmaking traits. If he can improve his skating through development of his stride mechanics, there’s a real path to being a fan favorite in the middle six.
If Calgary gets Reschny with their first pick, it is likely they take another center with this pick.
Gastrin has a relatively safe projection as a bottom-six center. He’s more of a play driver than he’s given credit for, and has shown the ability to compete with highly skilled players. He’s a high-floor prospect who showed flashes of more offensive ability than previously thought this season. At a minimum, his instincts and supportive puck play should allow him to become a staple of a checking line that a coach trusts in key situations.
Sports
From the big six to MLB’s disappointments: Second-half preview, rankings, playoff odds for all 30 teams
Some things about the 2025 MLB season have been predictable: the Los Angeles Dodgers having one of the best records in the majors, Aaron Judge having another MVP-caliber season, and Paul Skenes continuing to dominate as one of baseball’s best pitchers.
As always, though, there have been a number of surprises, too — both good and bad. The Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves have had incredibly disappointing campaigns, with both clubs near the bottom of their respective leagues. Juan Soto began his tenure with the New York Mets off to a slow start before heating up and riding that momentum into the All-Star break. Nobody thought the Colorado Rockies would be good this year — but nobody thought they’d be this bad, on pace to break the single-season loss record set by the Chicago White Sox just last season.
The second half of the season is sure to bring more excitement, with a battle at the top for best record between the Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs. A number of division races are also close, as the Cubs are up only a game on the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, the Mets are just a half-game behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East and the Toronto Blue Jays, after a red-hot streak to end the first half, lead the New York Yankees by two games. And the wild-card races could go down to the wire, with six teams in the American League within five games of the final wild card and four in the National League within six games of the final spot.
How will all of these teams perform in the second half? Who will dominate in the homestretch? And what does your club have to play for?
We’ve broken down all 30 squads into six tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield, Jorge Castillo, Eric Karabell and Tristan Cockcroft to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. We’ve also included Doolittle’s final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff and championship odds for all 30 teams.
Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule using Doolittle’s power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. The power ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.
Note: Teams are in order of best-to-worst playoff odds within their respective tiers.
TIER 1: THE BIG SIX
Record: 59-38 | Projected final record: 96-66
Division title odds: 98.6% | Playoff odds: 99.7% | Championship odds: 13.4%
How they got to the top: The Tigers exploded out of the gate on the strength of a launch-heavy offense and dynamic starting pitching. By the time Detroit cooled a bit, it had already built a double-digit lead in the AL Central. Emergent star power has fueled the Tigers’ well-balanced roster. Riley Greene (.284, 24 homers, 78 RBIs) has led the offense, while defending AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.23 ERA) is building a strong case to win the award again. The stars have been boosted by surprise/improved performances from Javier Baez, Spencer Torkelson, Gleyber Torres, Casey Mize and others up and down the roster.
What to expect from here: With the division race all but wrapped up, the Tigers’ second half will be about filling in roster gaps up to and including deadline day (July 31). The pitching staff needs more depth in both the rotation and the bullpen. The starting staff was thinned by Jackson Jobe’s injury and, increasingly, it’s unclear when veteran Alex Cobb might return. More pressing is the need in a bullpen that has been more solid than dominant. In a postseason setting, you want more of the latter than the former when it comes to championship-leverage high points. — Doolittle
Record: 58-39 | Projected final record: 97-65
Division title odds: 91.8% | Playoff odds: 99.0% | Championship odds: 16.4%
How they got to the top: By getting their starting pitchers healthy. The Dodgers entered the All-Star break with the NL’s best record even though they received a combined eight starts from Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, two pitchers who were expected to front their rotation. But Glasnow has since returned from injury, Snell could join him before the end of the month, and Shohei Ohtani is pitching again (and looks really good, albeit in small samples). The Dodgers were severely short-handed in their rotation throughout the first half and had to burn through their bullpen, a unit that leads the majors in innings pitched by a wide margin. They’ve been carried by a deep, high-profile offense and several back-end-of-the-roster pitchers who have taken on bigger roles. Snell and Glasnow being full-fledged members of their rotation, and Ohtani getting more stretched out, could elevate them to a different level.
What to expect from here: The Dodgers still have to bridge a gap at third base, with Max Muncy out at least through July with a knee injury that wasn’t as bad as initially feared. Muncy had been one of the sport’s most productive hitters since the middle of May. The absence of his left-handed bat has left a major void.
Freddie Freeman, meanwhile, is in the midst of a prolonged slump, and Mookie Betts has yet to really get going offensively. Freeman and Betts need to get on track. So does Michael Conforto, who slashed only .184/.298/.322 in the first half. The Dodgers are expected to target back-end relievers ahead of the trade deadline, but they could seek an upgrade in left field if Conforto doesn’t show signs of turning things around. — Gonzalez
Record: 57-39 | Projected final record: 97-65
Division title odds: 79.3% | Playoff odds: 98.6% | Championship odds: 15.4%
How they got to the top: With a dynamic offense that simply never slumped for more than a game or two. The Cubs are one of two teams not to have been swept in a series of three games or more, and it’s not because of their pitching staff but because they have the ability to score in so many ways. They rank second in slugging and third in stolen bases, which means almost every position in the order can either hit the ball out of the park or steal a base — or, in the cases of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker, do both. A top-ranked defense also has helped them secure first place in the NL Central, as has a revamped bullpen led by young closer Daniel Palencia.
What to expect from here: The Cubs should keep scoring enough in the second half to lead them to their first postseason appearance since 2020. The front office is likely to be very active before the trade deadline as well, looking to add a starter, a reliever and perhaps help at third base. The Cubs won’t be the favorites in a series against the Phillies or Dodgers but have proved to be as dangerous as anyone in the NL. — Rogers
Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 93-69
Division title odds: 81.2% | Playoff odds: 96.4% | Championship odds: 9.2%
How they got to the top: Getting to the top is standard in Houston. The Astros should make it nine consecutive seasons qualifying for the playoffs, perhaps reaching the ALCS for the fifth time in that span. However, looking closer at this year’s team in particular, this AL West run may be the most surprising, as Kyle Tucker is a Cub, second baseman Jose Altuve is a left fielder and Yordan Alvarez is sidelined. The DH has hit .210 in 29 games, succumbing to a hand injury since the first game of May. The confident Astros remain a top-five team because of their top-five ERA, led by right-hander Hunter Brown, left-hander Framber Valdez and arguably the league’s best bullpen. New leadoff option Jeremy Pena posting a top-five WAR has been critical, too.
What to expect from here: More winning. The Astros are used to this contending thing, even as some (many) of the names change. Twelve games remain versus the eager Mariners and hopeful Rangers, but it is hard to bet against the Astros winning the AL West for the fifth consecutive year. Reintegrating the excellent Alvarez, whose streak of earning MVP votes for three consecutive seasons figures to end this fall, is key to the lineup, which has lacked depth and pop with catcher Yainer Diaz and newcomer first baseman Christian Walker underachieving. The rotation needs stability after the stars, and perhaps right-handers Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Arrighetti and Luis Garcia can provide it. Expect the Astros to play October baseball. — Karabell
Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 93-69
Division title odds: 66.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 7.9%
How they got to the top: The Phillies’ starting staff has been magnificent, boasting the lowest ERA in the game. It begins with Zack Wheeler but it hardly ends there. Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez have been every bit as good, and while Jesus Luzardo has slowed down a little, he helped Philadelphia win early on while Suarez was out with an injury and Aaron Nola was struggling. Even Taijuan Walker has contributed after some struggles a year ago. Make no mistake, even with a star-laden lineup, the Phillies have been led by their rotation.
What to expect from here: Philadelphia isn’t playing for March-September glory. It’s all about October, which means staying healthy will be No.1 on the to-do list the rest of the way. But don’t expect president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to simply rely on his veteran group without augmenting the roster before the trade deadline. As good as the Phillies have been in the rotation, they’ve had bullpen issues, ranking 23rd in ERA. Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering have been solid, but newcomer Jordan Romano ‘s 1.50 WHIP is problematic. Expect an addition there but mostly expect the Phillies to play their best baseball down the stretch. This is an all-in year for them. — Rogers
Record: 55-42 | Projected final record: 90-72
Division title odds: 33.2% | Playoff odds: 80.1% | Championship odds: 4.2%
How they got to the top: It’s been a tale of three chapters for the 2025 Mets. During the first, from Opening Day through June 12, they produced the best record in baseball behind the best pitching staff in baseball. The second, through the end of June, saw them post the worst record in the majors due to the same staff falling apart. In the third, a 12-day sample leading into the All-Star break, the Mets rebounded to go 7-5. New York cannot expect the pitching staff to rediscover its early magic. Injuries have depleted the rotation, placing the onus on a bullpen that was throwing on fumes. The break came at an opportune time.
What to expect from here: Teams like equating players coming off the injured list in July to trade deadline acquisitions. In the Mets’ case, they received two when Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea were both activated in the club’s final series before the break. The additions are significant. Senga and Manaea were the team’s projected top two starters entering spring training. They help offset the recent losses of Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn. The bullpen, however, remains an area to address before the July 31 deadline.
Offensively, Juan Soto’s elite production since the start of June — he was named the NL Player of the Month for June — after a sluggish two-month start to his Mets career has changed the lineup’s complexion. With Soto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, who has also been one of baseball’s hottest hitters since June 1, the top of the Mets’ lineup is one of the best in the majors. — Castillo
TIER 2: ESTABLISHED CONTENDERS
Record: 53-43 | Projected final record: 92-70
Division title odds: 58.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 13.0%
How they make the jump to the top tier: Yankees general manager Brian Cashman recently made it clear: He believes the roster could use upgrades in the starting rotation, bullpen and infield (specifically third base). So expect the Yankees to address those areas before the July 31 trade deadline, with pitching help taking priority after starter Clarke Schmidt was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery this month. Besides acquisitions, the Yankees need Aaron Judge to continue producing at an MVP level, the boppers around him to consistently contribute, and shortstop Anthony Volpe to reverse a slide that has seeped into his defense.
What to expect from here: Luis Gil‘s return to the rotation from a lat injury that has sidelined him all season — the Yankees are targeting late July or early August — will be welcomed, and prospect Cam Schlittler‘s recent major league debut was promising, but Cashman believes he needs another starter. His analysis of his roster means he’ll be busy in the next two weeks. To bolster the team, he’ll need to relinquish talent. The names moved could include top prospect Spencer Jones, a towering slugger who has torn up Triple-A since getting promoted last month. If the right players are acquired, the Yankees could capitalize on another MVP year from Judge, win the AL East for the third time in four seasons and return to the World Series. — Castillo
Record: 56-40 | Projected final record: 91-71
Division title odds: 18.8% | Playoff odds: 86.8% | Championship odds: 5.4%
How they make the jump to the top tier: At this point, does anybody remember that the Brewers started the season 0-4 while getting outscored 47-15? It took a while for them to find their footing, but Milwaukee is right back where it has been for most of the past decade. This time, the Brewers are doing it with a surfeit of productive young talent. They lead the majors in WAR (per a FanGraphs/Baseball Reference consensus) from rookies. With so many young players on the rise, it’s not clear that the National League’s hottest team entering the break needs to do any more than stay the course.
What to expect from here: This might be the best version of the Brewers that we’ve seen during this current long run of success. The offense is athletic and better balanced than the homer/strikeout-heavy attacks of recent vintage. The team defense is top five in baseball. The rotation is dynamic and deep; if anyone goes down, the Brewers have Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick at Triple-A. Finding quality relievers is never a problem for Milwaukee. This team is for real, and the NL Central race is going to be a doozy. — Doolittle
Record: 55-41 | Projected final record: 89-73
Division title odds: 23.7% | Playoff odds: 77.5% | Championship odds: 3.0%
How they make the jump to the top tier: Keep playing like they have since June 26. The Blue Jays went 12-4 heading into the All-Star break, including an impressive four-game sweep at home over the Yankees that vaulted Toronto into first place. The key has been an offense that averaged 5.6 runs in that stretch and lifted the Jays’ team average to .258, tied with the Astros and Rays for best in the majors. The Jays have been outhomered 126 to 101, so they will need to rely on hitting for average to produce runs — although if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets hot and George Springer and Addison Barger keep slugging, maybe they’ll hit for both average and power the rest of the way.
What to expect from here: The Blue Jays are 17-12 in one-run games and 7-3 in extra-inning games, so they’ve excelled in close games even though closer Jeff Hoffman has allowed nine home runs. Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher and Yariel Rodriguez have helped stabilize the rest of the bullpen, however, providing a big improvement over what was a major weak spot last season. It’s hard to completely buy into the Blue Jays since they are 14 games over .500 with just a plus-17 run differential, but that run differential is plus-51 since the beginning of May, and that feels more like a legitimate contender. At this point, they certainly feel like a playoff team, especially if that bullpen trio keeps performing well. — Schoenfield
TIER 3: FIRMLY IN THE MIX
Record: 51-45 | Projected final record: 87-75
Division title odds: 16.4% | Playoff odds: 68.8% | Championship odds: 2.8%
What makes them a potential contender: Umm, presumably you are aware of what Cal Raleigh is doing? The catcher leads the majors with 38 home runs and 82 RBIs, putting him on pace for 64 home runs and 138 RBIs, which would break Judge’s AL record of 62 home runs and be the third-highest RBI total ever for a catcher. With Raleigh leading the way, the Mariners’ offense has surprisingly been pretty good — at least on the road, where they are tied with the Yankees for the highest OPS and have the highest batting average at .270.
But what the Mariners are hoping for are better results from the supposed strength of the team, the starting rotation. George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller have all spent time on the IL, and the Mariners rank just 13th in rotation ERA, after ranking first in 2024. If the rotation steps up in the second half, don’t be surprised if the Mariners run down the Astros in the AL West.
What to expect from here: The Mariners have to expect Raleigh to cool down. Julio Rodriguez went 6-for-12 and homered in three straight games right before the break when the Mariners swept the Tigers, so maybe he’ll finally get going after scuffling all season. They have a couple of lineup positions they could upgrade, especially third base, and maybe they’ll look to add another starting pitcher depending on Miller’s health outlook. With a loaded farm system, the Mariners are well equipped to make a big move at the trade deadline and go after their first division title since 2001. — Schoenfield
Record: 53-45 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 10.1% | Playoff odds: 57.3% | Championship odds: 2.0%
What makes them a potential contender: Usually a club trading its best hitter triggers a regression, but the Red Sox have been an outlier after sending Rafael Devers to San Francisco. That’s largely because their young stable of hitters, starting with Ceddanne Rafaela, has filled the void. The 24-year-old Rafaela’s emergence has been astonishing. He entered May 27 batting .220 with a .602 OPS. With Boston’s outfield surplus, his days as the starting center fielder were seemingly numbered. Since then, he has hit .329 with 12 home runs and a 1.017 OPS in 41 games.
Expecting Rafaela to continue the MVP-level production is probably unreasonable, but All-Star Alex Bregman‘s recent return after a seven-week absence plus Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer settling in as big leaguers should make Boston’s lineup dangerous even without Devers.
What to expect from here: Add the Red Sox to the list of contenders seeking pitching help before the deadline — both in the bullpen and rotation. Acquiring a starter and a reliever or two could vault the Red Sox to the top of the AL East and legitimate World Series contender status. If they don’t upgrade sufficiently, they’ll need the offense to continue propelling the club for a shot to play in October, likely as a wild-card team. — Castillo
Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 85-77
Division title odds: 7.6% | Playoff odds: 51.5% | Championship odds: 2.0%
What makes them a potential contender: Kevin Cash, two-time AL Manager of the Year (2020 and ’21), has again played a huge part. Time and again, he extracts unexpectedly great things from his players, from Home Run Derby runner-up Junior Caminero to team WAR leader and All-Star Jonathan Aranda to captivating comeback story Drew Rasmussen. From May 9 through June 28, the Rays’ .674 winning percentage was the best in baseball, moving them within a half-game of the AL East lead.
Rasmussen has played a big part in a durable, dependable rotation, as the Rays stunningly rank second in innings pitched from starters (540⅔), after having never ranked higher than 23rd in the category over the past seven seasons. They’re also second in quality starts (47) and WHIP (1.15) and eighth in ERA (3.71), and they’ll get a big reinforcement in Shane McClanahan in a couple of weeks.
What to expect from here: The Rays did all this despite adapting to an unfamiliar home environment, the much more hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field, but to compensate for them playing 53 of 97 games there during the first half, they’ll now play 37 of 65 on the road to close out the season. Don’t underestimate the home-field advantage that Tropicana Field has given the Rays, whose .635 home winning percentage in August/September since 2021 is third best in baseball. How Cash navigates his team through its five remaining road trips might ultimately determine the Rays’ fate, especially in light of the disappointing 2-8 trip they endured to conclude the first half. — Cockcroft
Record: 52-44 | Projected final record: 87-75
Division title odds: 4.4% | Playoff odds: 48.6% | Championship odds: 1.5%
What makes them a potential contender: For all their injuries and underperformers, the Padres entered the All-Star break holding the third NL wild-card spot, and were 5½ games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. Jackson Merrill‘s production has dipped and he has made two trips to the IL, Opening Day starter Michael King has been sidelined since mid-May, and Dylan Cease‘s 4.88 ERA is a career worst. But the Padres at least win the games they’re supposed to, going 31-18 at home and 18-4 against the bottom five teams in baseball in terms of winning percentage. They also sport one of the league’s best and deepest bullpens.
What to expect from here: General manager A.J. Preller is one of the game’s most aggressive at his craft, and how he bolsters via trade an offense that ranks in the bottom eight in runs per game, wOBA and home runs will play a big part in the Padres’ postseason fate. Getting back a healthy King and getting Cease and recently activated Yu Darvish on track before the toughest and most critical intradivisional portion of their schedule in mid-August will also prove important. — Cockcroft
Record: 52-45 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 3.6% | Playoff odds: 44.3% | Championship odds: 1.3%
What makes them a potential contender: Their pitching. The Giants entered the All-Star break with the best bullpen ERA in the majors, with the back-end trio of Tyler Rogers, Randy Rodriguez and Camilo Doval being especially dominant. Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, meanwhile, had combined to post a 2.80 ERA in 40 starts, forming one of the best rotation duos in the sport. New Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey wanted to build teams that hung their hat on pitching and defense, a nod to the World Series champions he was part of but also a reaction to how difficult it is to hit at Oracle Park. He’s 1-for-2 so far. The 2025 Giants have graded out poorly on defense, but their pitching has kept them relevant.
What to expect from here: The Giants already made their big move ahead of the trade deadline, acquiring Rafael Devers and his massive contract from the Boston Red Sox. Devers, one of the game’s best hitters, was brought in to change the dynamic of a mediocre Giants offense, but that has yet to happen. The three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger has slashed just .202/.330/.326 over his first 25 games with San Francisco. At some point, though, he will get going again. And when he does, perhaps the Giants’ offense — a strong one if Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee can also get right — will finally support the Giants’ pitching. — Gonzalez
Record: 51-46 | Projected final record: 84-78
Division title odds: 1.5% | Playoff odds: 27.9% | Championship odds: 0.7%
What makes them a potential contender: The Cardinals don’t do anything spectacular but they also don’t have a glaring weakness. It’s been a steady ship since some early-season struggles that almost doomed them in the playoff race. On May 1 they were four games under .500, but by June 1 they were seven over. That steady climb has characterized their first half. Perhaps the best example of their plight is the fact that they had just one All-Star, infielder Brendan Donovan, who might have made it due to every team needing a representative as much as anything else. That’s not to take away from St. Louis. It’s a compliment to them on a good half without star-level performances. Sonny Gray has been good. So has Alec Burleson. But the Cardinals narrative this season is about team over individual.
What to expect from here: The next two weeks feel critical for the Cardinals, but they might have already played their way into staying together and competing for a playoff berth. Besides, the same guys that turned down trades in the winter because of their no-trade clauses are likely to do it again later this month. The players believe in their team. Now it’s up to management to do the same — especially in top decision-maker John Mozeliak’s final season.
The biggest question might involve closer and free agent-to-be Ryan Helsley. Sure, he’s not having the same season he did a year ago, but what if Mozeliak gets an offer he can’t refuse? It’s not impossible to do a little adding and subtracting at the deadline and still compete. St. Louis could use another starter, as Erick Fedde has struggled mightily. Meanwhile, righty Michael McGreevy should find his way back into the rotation as well. — Rogers
TIER 4: PLAYING THEIR WAY OUT OF CONTENTION
Record: 48-49 | Projected final record: 82-80
Division title odds: 2.3% | Playoff odds: 21.8% | Championship odds: 0.8%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: No offense, Rangers fans, but this is not the offensive output of a contending team. The 2023 World Series champions averaged 5.4 runs per game and mashed 233 home runs, each figure third in the sport. This season’s bunch is even more disappointing than last year’s, 24th in runs and barely at 100 home runs at the break. Holdovers Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung (demoted to the minors) have disappointed, and newcomers Joc Pederson and Jake Burger (demoted to the minors but back with the club) have really disappointed.
Beleaguered manager Bruce Bochy, with few options, has been alternating underwhelming offensive catchers Jonah Heim and Kyle Higashioka as his regular DH. The league’s best pitching (3.28 ERA) keeps the club in the mix, but Corey Seager not only must stay healthy, and he needs more help.
What to expect from here: It’s a small sample, but the Rangers boast the No. 5 wOBA in July (12 games), as Semien and Garcia look rejuvenated, and Wyatt Langford (.954 OPS in July) solidifies a run-producing spot. Burger and Jung should improve their numbers. The Rangers may not match their first-half pitching performance, but they figure to hit better than .229 in home games the final two months. Well, they better do that, or amazing RHP Jacob deGrom, making his most starts since the 2019 campaign, will be watching October baseball for the ninth season out of the past 10. — Karabell
Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 81-81
Division title odds: 0.9% | Playoff odds: 17.0% | Championship odds: 0.4%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense is averaging just 4.19 runs per game, a significant drop from last season’s 4.58 and way down from the 4.80 the Twins averaged in 2023 when they won the AL Central. It’s the lowest output for the Twins since 2013, and two of the major culprits are supposed to be two of their best players: Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. Correa has been healthy, but is posting career lows in OBP, slugging and OPS. Lewis has once again battled injuries, but even when he has played, he has hit just .216/.281/.302 with two home runs in 42 games.
What to expect from here: Amazingly, the Twins had a 13-game winning streak in May and still entered the All-Star break with a losing record, which shows how poorly they played aside from that stretch. The Twins haven’t played well on the road, going 19-29, and 12 of their first 18 games coming out of the break will be on the road, including series against the Dodgers and Tigers. Those 18 games will tell us whether the Twins can get closer in the wild-card race. If they do find a way to reach the postseason, they could be a sleeper with one of the best bullpens in the majors, but right now it feels like they lack the consistency to get there. — Schoenfield
Record: 50-47 | Projected final record: 82-80
Division title odds: 0.4% | Playoff odds: 10.9% | Championship odds: 0.2%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The Reds’ rotation has been excellent, even with ace Hunter Greene missing time. That group is also Cincinnati’s best hope for crawling back into the wild-card picture. But the Reds haven’t played well against teams in the top couple of tiers of the majors, and by quality of opponent, Cincinnati has arguably the toughest remaining schedule of any team in baseball. The Reds have played solid ball but need to be a lot better than that over the second half.
What to expect from here: Greene should return and, given the strength and depth of the rotation, the Reds aren’t likely to collapse. But an uneven offense that doesn’t have enough middle-of-the-order power isn’t likely to fuel a sustained run, either. The Reds are middling, in other words, which could have worked in some versions of the NL Central, but not the one that has emerged in 2025. — Doolittle
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 80-82
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 8.3% | Championship odds: 0.2%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Injuries, injuries and more injuries. On the position player side, catcher Gabriel Moreno, infielder Ildemaro Vargas and first baseman/outfielder Pavin Smith have resided on the IL since mid-June. In the bullpen, standouts Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk underwent Tommy John surgery last month; veteran Shelby Miller landed on the IL with a strained forearm July 5 to interrupt a dominant season with a 1.98 ERA; sidearmer Ryan Thompson is out with a shoulder injury; and left-hander Jalen Beeks is on the IL with back inflammation. In the rotation, Corbin Burnes underwent Tommy John surgery last month after signing the largest contract in franchise history over the offseason.
Then there are the significant players who missed time earlier in the season. All-Stars Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll were sidelined for weeks. So were veteran starter Eduardo Rodriguez and reliever Kevin Ginkel. In short, it’s been a terribly unlucky season for a club that had World Series hopes.
What to expect from here: At this point, every contender is praying for the Diamondbacks’ downfall over the next two weeks. Arizona becoming an aggressive seller would dramatically change the trade market, infusing it with talent that would create bidding wars and produce huge hauls to brighten the organization’s future. At 47-50 and 5½ games from a postseason spot, it’ll take a heater in the 12 games before the deadline for the Diamondbacks to stand pat. That probably isn’t happening. — Castillo
Record: 47-50 | Projected final record: 79-83
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 7.7% | Championship odds: 0.1%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense, and only the offense. The Royals are playoff caliber in every other phase of the game. The MLB median for runs in a game is four. Using that as a standard, let’s give a win to an offense that beats four in any given game, a tie if it matches that and a loss if it falls short. By that methodology, the Royals’ offense went 21-59-17 (.304) during the first half. Only the Rockies were worse, and just barely. Kansas City can win with average offense but there’s nothing we’ve seen from the Royals to suggest their attack can reach and stay at even that modest level.
What to expect from here: Everything teeters on the trade deadline. Can the Royals add at least one, and preferably two, impact bats, and do so without undermining the team defense that remains the club’s backbone? It’s a really tall order and the Royals don’t have the kind of minor league depth or payroll flexibility to fill it. It’s also not clear if this year’s team is worthy of that kind of aggression in the first place. Coming out of the break, the Royals have to go on a tear, or they’ll be looking ahead to 2026 and beyond. — Doolittle
Record: 46-49 | Projected final record: 78-84
Division title odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 6.3% | Championship odds: 0.1%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Offense. The Guardians are 26th in the majors in runs per game, averaging just 3.72. They’re hitting just .222 overall and, unlike last season when they produced a lot of clutch hitting with runners on base, just .221 with men on. During a 10-game losing streak in late June and early July, they were shut out five times, which feels like an impossible feat even in the dead ball era (and we’re not in the dead ball era). It’s not a surprise to learn that the Guardians have the lowest hardest-hit percentage (balls hit at 95 mph or harder) in the majors.
What to expect from here: The Guardians did bounce back from that 10-game losing streak with six wins in their final seven games before the break. They get the Athletics, Orioles, Royals, Rockies and Twins coming out of the break — five consecutive series against teams currently with losing records — so if they dominate that stretch, they’ll be right back in the thick of the wild-card race.
Still, it’s hard to envision this light-hitting team reaching the postseason, especially since the bullpen hasn’t been as dominant as last season and the rotation is a mediocre 17th in ERA. Indeed, unless the Guardians come out of the break scorching hot, you have to wonder if the front office will make a reliever or two available at the trade deadline. — Schoenfield
Record: 47-49 | Projected final record: 76-86
Division title odds: 0.2% | Playoff odds: 2.4% | Championship odds: 0.0%
Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Simply put, talent. The Angels went into the All-Star break only two games below .500 despite a minus-62 run differential, outperforming their Pythagorean record by five games. Depth of the 40-man roster is traditionally their biggest weakness, but it hasn’t really been tested. None of their starting pitchers have suffered injuries. Their overall roster has been relatively healthy. In many ways, they have had as good a fortune as one can reasonably hope for through the season’s first three-plus months.
They’ve also shown some promise. Their pitching has taken a big step forward, with Jose Soriano and Reid Detmers in particular showing flashes of success. And their lineup has shown some real potential, even though Mike Trout — with favorable underlying numbers — has yet to really get going.
What to expect from here: It’s been 10 years since the Angels were even relevant for the stretch run of a season. That’s the goal: to stay in it. And if they continue to do that over these next few weeks, it will be really hard to see owner Arte Moreno, the same man who did not trade Shohei Ohtani in the lead-up to his free agency, trigger anything resembling a teardown. The Angels have several intriguing pending free agents, namely Tyler Anderson, Kenley Jansen, Luis Rengifo and Yoan Moncada. They might add. They might add and subtract simultaneously, swapping expiring contracts for controllable players who can help in the immediate or close-to-immediate future. But they probably won’t punt on 2025 if they can help it. — Gonzalez
TIER 5: THE DISAPPOINTMENTS
Record: 42-53 | Projected final record: 77-85
Division title odds: 0.1% | Playoff odds: 2.1% | Championship odds: 0.1%
How they got here: Injuries, a key suspension and an 0-7 start have buried this team, which is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first season since 2017, Brian Snitker’s first full year as manager. Everyone knew it would take time for Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) and Spencer Strider (elbow) to recover, and they debuted well into the season. But the Braves hardly counted on losing their prime free agent signing in Jurickson Profar to an 80-game suspension, and most of the rest of the rotation as well, as Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder), Chris Sale (ribs) and breakout Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow) may not return this September. That might depend on the state of the team, and currently things are not looking good.
What to expect from here: GM Alex Anthopoulos is no newcomer to the trade deadline scene, and if the club cannot get closer than its current 9.5 games away from an NL wild-card spot in two weeks, he may have no choice but to trade veterans. Who goes? Perhaps Marcell Ozuna, his slugging percentage down from .546 to .396, is first. Embattled closer Raisel Iglesias, with his bloated 4.42 ERA, would seem an obvious choice. Rejuvenated Sean Murphy is a possibility with rookie Drake Baldwin emerging. Even the sputtering Michael Harris II, last among 158 qualifiers with a .551 OPS, could use a new start. Regardless of who moves on, this is far from what Braves fans expected in March, but don’t be surprised if the franchise keeps enough talent to contend again in 2026. — Karabell
Record: 43-52 | Projected final record: 73-89
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.5% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: The Orioles stumbled out of the gate, with a 12-18 record at the end of April, including losses of 24-2 and 15-3. Then the season really fell apart with a 3-16 stretch in May — against a relatively soft part of the schedule. Manager Brandon Hyde got the ax and fans rightly pounced on GM Mike Elias and new owner David Rubenstein for failing to address the rotation in the offseason with somebody other than 41-year-old Charlie Morton and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano.
Still, if the offense had lived up to preseason expectations, the Orioles might be in the playoff race. Instead, the offense has declined from one of the best in the majors (4.85 runs per game) to below average (4.14 runs per game). They’ve lost nearly 50 points of OPS despite moving in the left-field fence at Camden Yards by varying distances of 9 to 20 feet. Yes, the rotation is the major culprit here, ranking next to last in ERA, but it’s been a teamwide collapse.
What to expect from here: With up to 12 potential free agents, the Orioles are likely to be the busiest team at the trade deadline. Some of the key players who could be traded include Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Ramon Laureano, Zach Eflin and even Morton, who has pitched better after a horrid start (2.76 ERA over his past eight starts). O’Hearn will have a lot of interest, but the other big name that teams may be asking about is closer Felix Bautista. He’s back from Tommy John surgery throwing gas, has a low salary ($1 million) and is under team control through 2027. That means the Orioles are likely to keep him, but given the list of contenders looking for late-game bullpen help, Bautista could bring back a big return. — Schoenfield
Record: 44-51 | Projected final record: 72-90
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.2% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: Not much in South Florida has gone quite according to plan. Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins’ expected ace and premium midseason trade chip, ranks last among pitchers with minus-1.6 WAR. Xavier Edwards and Connor Norby haven’t progressed as smoothly as hoped. The rotation has struggled to consistently find options for the No. 4 and 5 slots, and the Marlins’ 5.02 first-half ERA was third worst in baseball. But, just as unexpected, the offense has shown a spark over the past month. Since June 9, only eight teams scored more runs, led by All-Star Kyle Stowers (.316/.404/.663 rates and nine home runs) and with solid production from Otto Lopez and rookie Agustin Ramirez.
What to expect from here: With the youngest roster in baseball, the Marlins will continue to feature their young stars. In addition to the names above, Eury Perez is quickly recapturing his pre-Tommy John surgery buzz as one of the game’s most promising starters. Alcantara’s trade value has plummeted, but he’ll still probably be moved for prospects, potentially along with Anthony Bender, Edward Cabrera or Jesus Sanchez. — Cockcroft
Record: 39-58 | Projected final record: 68-94
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: It’s almost like adding little to an offense that had an 87 OPS+ (tied for 27th) in 2024 was a bad idea. This year, they’re at 79, in a three-way tie for last with the White Sox and Rockies. Consider that win-loss method using the median run total of four we cited in the Kansas City entry above, and reverse the standards to look at run prevention. The Pirates’ pitching and defense went 50-35-12 (.577) by that method, ranking 10th overall and sixth in the NL. That’s playoff-level run prevention. The sputtering offense renders that success irrelevant.
What to expect from here: Same old, same old for the Pirates. They’ll offload veterans at the deadline and play out the string, leaving their fans wondering what exactly, if anything, will ever change with this franchise. That assumes, of course, that rumblings about dangling Paul Skenes in a potential trade don’t resurface. If they do and, worse, such a trade comes to pass, the Pirates might not have any fans left. That aside, Bucs fans at least get Skenes every few days and get to watch Oneil Cruz run fast, throw hard and hit the ball far, all while hitting around .210. — Doolittle
Record: 41-57 | Projected final record: 67-95
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: This dysfunctional franchise lost 93 games last season, its final ride in Oakland, so perhaps the word “here” has special meaning in this case, referring to the new, temporary (for three years?) home in West Sacramento. The Athletics — don’t call them Sacramento! — are second worst in MLB in run differential at minus-134, so they deserve their last-place designation, though things weren’t so bad early on. The Athletics were 20-16 a week into May before rough pitching spiraled them into losing 20 of 21 games. Not everything is bad. SS Jacob Wilson and 1B Nick Kurtz are among the leading contenders for AL Rookie of the Year honors, two-time All-Star OF Brent Rooker is on his way to a third consecutive 30-home run season, and RHP closer Mason Miller is back on track after a rough April. The future on the field looks relatively promising.
What to expect from here: RHP Luis Severino, signed to a multiyear contract in December, really does not enjoy pitching in Sacramento (6.68 ERA) and certainly has no issue telling everyone about it. His solid road numbers (3.04 ERA) should attract trade interest, perhaps back to one of his former New York-based clubs. It would be surprising if the Athletics parted with Miller. The Athletics are eminently watchable when they hit, though they remain below average in scoring runs. The pitching is the problem (5.20 ERA), and there is little help on the immediate horizon, so expect myriad high-scoring contests this summer, whether in Sacramento or elsewhere. — Karabell
Record: 38-58 | Projected final record: 65-97
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: The Nationals’ first half was not entirely without positives, as James Wood (4.4) and MacKenzie Gore (3.6) have been top-10 performers in terms of WAR on their respective sides of the ball, but on the whole the Nats were plagued by poor process, pathetic ‘pen performance and puzzling news conferences. A 7-20 stretch between June 7 and July 6 culminated in the firings of general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez, seven days ahead of the team possessing the No. 1 pick in the MLB draft. The team’s unexpected selection of Eli Willits was regarded as representative of the organization’s unclear direction.
What to expect from here: Continued focus on player development under Miguel Cairo, an interim manager for the second time in four seasons. The team can and should move impending free agents Kyle Finnegan, Michael Soroka and Amed Rosario, and it should aim to take another look at 2020 first-rounder Robert Hassell III, a .298/.404/.488 hitter since his mid-June demotion back to Triple-A Rochester. — Cockcroft
Record: 32-65 | Projected final record: 55-107
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
How they got here: If you like rookies making their MLB debuts, then the 2025 White Sox are for you. It’s brought energy to what was a funeral-like atmosphere just a season ago when the team lost a record 121 games. But with the energy of debuting 11 players comes some growing pains. That’s to be expected and hasn’t dampened the attitude inside the clubhouse.
Team success has been hard to find but individual moments still exist, beginning with Shane Smith, a Rule 5 pick this year, making the All-Star team. Then there is flamethrower Grant Taylor, who both opened a game and closed one in the same series against the Blue Jays. And their latest debut, shortstop Colson Montgomery, was banished to the team’s spring complex earlier this season only to find his way to the majors more recently. There are good storylines with the White Sox for the first time in a few years — just not many wins.
What to expect from here: Growth. And perhaps a few more wins as those rookies get more comfortable. The team will also be active later this month with newcomer Adrian Houser opening eyes around the league. The biggest question surrounds outfielder Luis Robert Jr., who hasn’t hit a lick this season. Will a team take a chance in trading for him? Will GM Chris Getz hold out for a decent prospect or just get Robert off the books — and off the team — as the White Sox’s makeover continues? — Rogers
TIER 6: ROCK BOTTOM
Record: 22-74 | Projected final record: 41-121
Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%
Where it all went wrong: Everywhere. It goes all the way back to the beginning, with the circumstances of playing baseball at mile-high altitude, and encompasses the franchise’s entire history, which is marked by an insular approach that has sapped innovation for a team that desperately needs it. But let’s keep the focus on this year. The Rockies went into the All-Star break with a major-league-high 5.56 ERA, a 27th-ranked .668 OPS and minus-19 outs above average, third worst in the sport. In other words, they have been dreadful on the mound, in the batter’s box and on defense. It really is that simple.
What to expect from here: The question everyone seems to have about the Rockies is whether they will actually make drastic changes. The first hints will come before the end of the month, when we find out if they diverge from prior strategy and trade away key veteran players — most notably German Marquez and Ryan McMahon — ahead of the trade deadline. Perhaps at some point thereafter, we’ll find out if owner Dick Monfort finally opts for a new direction in baseball operations. Bill Schmidt is in his fourth year as general manager and, barring a miracle, will oversee his third consecutive 100-plus-loss season. He has been with the organization since 1999. — Gonzalez
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Dan Wetzel
During college football’s Bowl Championship Series era, the sport’s opposition to an expanded, let alone expansive, playoff could be summarized in one colorful quote by then-Ohio State president E. Gordon Gee.
“They will wrench a playoff system out of my cold, dead hands,” Gee said in 2007.
We are happy to report that while college football does, indeed, have a playoff, Gee is still very much alive. The 81-year-old retired just this week after a second stint leading West Virginia University.
What is dead and buried, though, is college football’s staunch resistance to extending its postseason field. After decades of ignoring complaints and the promise of additional revenue to claim that just two teams was more than enough, plans to move from 12 participants to 16 were underway before last season’s inaugural 12-teamer even took place.
A once-static sport now moves at light speed, future implications be damned.
Fire. Ready. Aim.
So maybe the best bit of current news is that college football’s two ruling parties — the SEC and Big Ten — can’t agree on how the new 16-team field would be selected. It has led to a pause on playoff expansion.
Maybe, just maybe, it means no expansion will occur by 2026, as first planned, and college football can let the 12-team model cook a little to accurately assess what changes — if any — are even needed.
“We have a 12-team playoff, five conference champions,” SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said this week. “That could stay if we can’t agree.”
Good. After all, what’s the rush?
The 2025 season will play out with a 12-team format featuring automatic bids for five conference champions and seven at-large spots. Gone is last year’s clunky requirement that the top four seeds could go only to conference champs — elevating Boise State and Arizona State and unbalancing the field.
That alone was progress built on real-world experience. It should be instructive.
The SEC wants a 16-team model but with, as is currently the case, automatic bids going to the champions in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC and the best of the so-called Group of 6. The rest of the field would be at-large selections.
The Big Ten says it will not back such a proposal until the SEC agrees to play nine conference games (up from its current eight). Instead, it wants a 16-team system that gives four automatic bids apiece to the Big Ten and SEC, two each to the ACC and Big 12, one to the Group of 6 and then three at-large spots.
It’s been dubbed the “4-4-2-2-1-3” because college athletic leaders love ridiculous parlances almost as much as they love money.
While the ACC, Big 12 and others have offered opinions — mostly siding with the SEC — legislatively, the decision rests with the sport’s two big-dog conferences.
Right now, neither side is budging. A compromise might still be made, of course. The supposed deadline to set the 2026 system is Nov. 30. And Sankey actually says he prefers the nine-game SEC schedule, even if his coaches oppose it.
However, the possibility of the status quo standing for a bit longer remains.
What the Big Ten has proposed is a dramatic shift for a sport that has been bombarded with dramatic shifts — conference realignment, the transfer portal, NIL, revenue sharing, etc.
The league wants to stage multiple “play-in” games on conference championship weekend. The top two teams in the league would meet for the league title (as is currently the case), but the third- and fourth-place teams would play the fifth- and sixth-place teams to determine the other automatic bids.
Extend this out among all the conferences and you have up to a 26-team College Football Playoff (with 22 teams in a play-in situation). This would dramatically change the way the sport works — devaluing the stakes for nonconference games, for example. And some mediocre teams would essentially get a playoff bid — in the Big Ten’s case, the sixth seed last year was an Iowa team that finished 8-5.
Each conference would have more high-value inventory to sell to broadcast partners, but it’s not some enormous windfall. Likewise, four more first-round playoff games would need to find television slots and relevance.
Is anyone sure this is necessary? Do we need 16 at all, let alone with multibids?
In the 12-team format, the first round wasn’t particularly competitive — with a 19.3-point average margin of victory. It’s much like the first round of the NFL playoffs, designed mostly to make sure no true contender is left out.
Perhaps last year was an outlier. And maybe future games will be close. Or maybe they’ll be even more lopsided. Wouldn’t it be prudent to find out?
While there were complaints about the selection committee picking SMU and/or Indiana over Alabama, it wasn’t some egregious slight. Arguments will happen no matter how big the field. Besides, the Crimson Tide lost to two 6-6 teams last year. Expansion means a team with a similar résumé can cruise in.
Is that a good thing?
Whatever the decision, it is being made with little to no real-world data — pro or con. Letting a few 12-team fields play out, providing context and potentially unexpected consequences, sure wouldn’t hurt.
You don’t have to be Gordon Gee circa 2007 to favor letting this simmer and be studied before leaping toward another round of expansion.
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