Final 2025 NHL mock draft: Predictions for the top 32 picks
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Rachel Doerrie
The first round of the NHL draft is Friday night in Los Angeles, and for the first time, team personnel will not be centralized. No one will be reporting on who visited whose table, who was seen speaking in the dark corners of a tunnel or who is walking over to central registry. But the players will be in attendance, which should make for interesting draft photos.
Apart from Matthew Schaefer and Michael Misa, there is a ton of intrigue in this year’s draft class. There is no consensus after the top two, and there is good reason to believe we will see a ton of pick shuffling as early as the first round. With such volatility across draft boards, teams might want to move up or down depending on who is available, and teams with multiple first-round picks might raise eyebrows with their selections.
For the final mock draft, we will assume the selections will stay with their teams, but there will be mention of who might be selected if the pick is traded. For instance, it sure seems as if the Columbus Blue Jackets, Utah Mammoth, Boston Bruins and Vancouver Canucks could move their first-round selections for more immediate help, and those considerations will be made.
In a mock draft, it isn’t about which player is the best, it is about how the team drafting perceives the players available — and who they are most likely to select. In other words, this isn’t an exercise of “who would I pick if I were GM” as much as it is an exercise of “who is most likely to be selected if the pick isn’t traded.”
With that out of the way, here’s the final projection of the first 32 picks:
This is not rocket science and no one needs to overthink this. The James Hagens story — his being a Long Island native, and an Islanders fan — is a great one, and we will address that later, but Schaefer is the clear-cut best player available in this draft.
Many scouts believe he will become a franchise cornerstone defenseman capable of driving play at both ends of the ice. The Islanders are in a precarious position on defense with Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov in need of new contracts. Neither of those players will sign low-priced deals, and both have been rumored in trade discussions. Given that, the Isles clearly view Schaefer as the defenseman of the future. Should they elect to keep Dobson, the incoming Schaefer would allow the elder to slide into a role more suited to him and remove some of the heavy lifting.
Schaefer lost nearly his entire draft year to injury, and would almost certainly benefit from a year in the NCAA to continue developing. That seems unlikely. But even without that, the Isles can safely project him to step into their lineup in a significant role as a rookie. It wouldn’t surprise anyone to see Schaefer running the power play, logging top-four minutes and becoming a staple on the Isles’ back end before snow hits the ground this season.
2. San Jose Sharks
Michael Misa, F, Saginaw (OHL)
There seems to be some intrigue surrounding the Sharks heading into draft weekend, as they have a clear need on defense and are also believed to like Anton Frondell (a center). But passing on a talent such as Misa for any reason would be ill-advised. The gap between Schaefer and Misa exists, but the gap between Misa and the next tier is even larger.
Adding a dual-threat offensive dynamo with above-average two-way play to a young lineup that already has Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith is very exciting. Misa can play center or wing, but his two-way play is more valuable at center, and would give the Sharks a significant one-two punch for years to come. A top-six group that includes Celebrini, Will Smith, William Eklund and Misa — who are all 22 or younger — sets up the Sharks with a formidable attack and reliable two-way play drivers in the middle of the ice for years to come.
Misa brings dynamic scoring ability, excellent speed, and elite hockey sense to combine with a never-quit style. It’s not out of the question that he steps into the lineup this season and has a similar impact to what Celebrini did as a rookie in 2024-25 because he’s such a complete player, with professional habits all over the ice.
3. Chicago Blackhawks
Anton Frondell, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
This is where things start to get very interesting.
It is rumored that Chicago could move this pick, but if it doesn’t, Frondell or Porter Martone seem to be the most likely selections. Hagens would be the best available, but it seems as if Chicago wants a more sizable player to pair with Connor Bedard.
In this scenario, Chicago hopes Frondell can slot into the lineup behind Bedard and provide two-way value with an elite shot release and the ability to find open space to get his shot off. Frondell would benefit from another development season outside the NHL before making the jump to become a more well-rounded play driver.
When he’s ready, the Hawks can slot Frondell across from Bedard on the power play and have two players with elite release on their flanks. Ideally, Frondell drives a second line as a powerful two-way center and gives Chicago a formidable one-two punch for years to come.
4. Utah Mammoth
Brady Martin, F, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
There is a very real chance Utah doesn’t make this selection and trades the pick. If it does, I expect Hagens to be the selection by the acquiring team. But Utah has made it known it wants hard skill, and there are two players who fit that bill: Caleb Desnoyers and Brady Martin. Both are legitimate possibilities for the Mammoth, who want to add some beef to a top six that has Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther.
It is no secret that Martin is high on Utah’s list, and he cemented that status by making an excellent impression when he met with Mammoth brass at the scouting combine. The farm boy has lots of teams after him, including the Flyers and Bruins. Some believe he could be a Sam Bennett type of player who produces well below a point per game in the regular season but is a “mammoth” in the playoffs. Utah believes it needs some jam at the top of its lineup, and no one this high has more jam than Martin.
No team has scouted Martone more heavily than Nashville, and upper management was in the rink to see him on more than a few occasions. Martone might have the best hockey sense and vision in the draft class, and is also in the conversation for best puck skill. Tacking on an elite shot with his playmaking and you’ve got a 6-foot-3 forward with both hard and soft skill — and a sky-high ceiling.
He might not be Mikko Rantanen, but Rantanen is his second-closest comparable in my model, along with Cole Caufield — in terms of NHL potential, not size (obviously).
If you’re Preds GM Barry Trotz, you ask Martone to develop his physical game to become an imposing force and the makings of a dual-threat forward who will be a lot for opponents to handle. If they don’t take Martone, Trotz has been clear he values upside and skill. If he really wants to do that, Hagens feels like the guy. But there’s a sneaky hunch that Nashville could acquire an NHL player and more from the Isles in exchange for this selection if Hagens is available.
6. Philadelphia Flyers
James Hagens, F, Boston College (NCAA)
The Flyers need centers more than anything, and if Hagens falls into their lap at No. 6, they need to follow suit with their Matvei Michkov approach and take the kid who had no business being available to them. The possibility of adding Michkov and Hagens to their top line without drafting in the top five in those years would be astronomically valuable to the organization.
Hagens would immediately become the Flyers’ best prospect at center, and the team doesn’t need to rush him through school with Sean Couturier, Noah Cates and newly acquired Trevor Zegras already on the NHL roster. When he’s ready, Hagens can step in to provide a jolt of offense the Flyers sorely need. His speed, puck skill and excellent playmaking ability will fit nicely beside Michkov, especially if he regains his play-driving ability in another season at Boston College. The details of his game will allow him to earn the coach’s trust and become a staple of the Flyers’ offense for years to come.
7. Boston Bruins
Caleb Desnoyers, F, Moncton (QMJHL)
Another pick that could be on the move, but if the Bruins make this pick, Desnoyers would be a perfect fit for the organization. A French Canadian two-way center with excellent shutdown ability, and a clutch producer and leader in a Bruins uniform should sound pretty familiar to Bruins fans.
Desnoyers is a serial winner, and he plays his best when the games matter the most. He’s excellent in the tough areas, is a deft playmaker and has high-end hockey sense. His defensive game is already NHL-ready, and if he can improve his speed, the Bruins will have a legitimate offensive threat capable of handling tough matchups in key situations.
8. Seattle Kraken
Jake O’Brien, F, Brantford (OHL)
There’s a consensus group of six at the top of the draft after Schaefer and Misa, and Seattle probably takes whomever is left from that group. But the Kraken need a defenseman, and I could see them trading back a few spots to the range of Radim Mrtka and Jackson Smith.
If they stay at No. 8, I think O’Brien is the pick, unless they opt for Roger McQueen. Seattle is one of the deepest teams when it comes to young centers with Matty Beniers, Shane Wright and Berkly Catton all age 22 or younger. O’Brien is a high-end talent and might allow the Kraken to move Catton to the wing in the top six.
O’Brien brings more high-end playmaking than Wright and Beniers, and will have time to physically mature and add speed to hit his ceiling as a playmaking top-six center. He should become a playmaking force who quarterbacks the power play and makes his wingers a lot of money.
9. Buffalo Sabres
Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle (WHL)
The Sabres have a decent prospect pool, but the organization really needs high-end center and right-handed defensive prospects. Both Mrtka and McQueen should be available to them here, but it feels as if the big defenseman is their guy.
The 6-6, right-handed defenseman has projectable mobility and quality transition defending, and could be the perfect partner for Rasmus Dahlin or Owen Power. Adding Mrtka gives the Sabres another quality defenseman with projectable shutdown ability as the organization looks to end the NHL’s longest playoff drought.
10. Anaheim Ducks
Roger McQueen, F, Brandon (WHL)
The Ducks could very well trade this pick for current NHL help; GM Pat Verbeek already has been quite active this offseason. But if not, taking a towering center who is a top-five talent in the draft makes a lot of sense.
The Ducks took McQueen out to dinner at the combine, and appear to have done a significant amount of homework on his back injury. If the Ducks believe it won’t be an issue moving forward, adding a powerful 6-5 center who has the potential to be a dominant two-way force is a no-brainer. The only limit on McQueen’s ceiling is his body’s willingness to hold up. If it does, we’re talking about a player who could end up as the one of the best to come out of the draft class. That is worth the swing for the Ducks.
Holding two picks back to back, the Penguins might very well try to move up to nab an elite prospect — their pick value combined is nearly identical to the No. 3 pick, so moving up is probably not entirely out of the question. Failing that, the Penguins have an opportunity to add two significant players to their pipeline.
If McQueen is available, I think they take a long look. But adding Smith to their blue-line depth would be tidy business for the Penguins, who currently have Owen Pickering and Harrison Brunicke there. Smith is big, physical and has legitimate offensive upside. He should be capable of playing in a matchup role and driving offense from the back end. He’s poised with the puck and will be close to Penguins brass while he attends Penn State.
There’s a lot to like about the package Smith brings and the Penguins could use a player with his blend of size, skating, poise and offensive upside.
The Penguins land another top-10 talent here with Eklund. Carter Bear and Lynden Lakovic will also be options given that both have outstanding offensive talent.
But as for Eklund, he plays a style that translates well to the NHL and has the potential to produce 70-plus points in a top-line role. His excellent forechecking ability, willingness to engage physically, fearlessness driving to the middle of the ice and two-way play give him the tools to be a Seth Jarvis type of player.
He’ll probably be NHL-ready sooner than later, and for a team with as many veterans as the Penguins, that matters. Having Eklund learn from the future Hall of Famers in the twilight of their career could have a lasting developmental impact that vaults Eklund toward his ceiling as a first-line engine.
The Red Wings have a type, and luckily for them, a few players in their range fit the bill: Bear, Eklund and Justin Carbonneau. At least two, if not all three, could be available at this spot.
Bear’s elite instincts and playmaking ability are attractive to many teams, including Detroit. Combined with one of the best competitive engines in the draft class, Bear has all the hallmarks of a play-driving winger with reliable two-way play, similar to Zach Hyman.
The Red Wings have some quality young centers, and Bear’s blend of playmaking and net-front finishing ability could see him become a power-play operator and offensive facilitator. He’d be an excellent fit for the Red Wings as a projectable top-six contributor.
There’s a distinct possibility that Columbus trades this pick for immediate help. But if it doesn’t, this feels like the floor for Aitcheson, given the Blue Jackets’ need to add defenseman.
Though Logan Hensler is likely to be a consideration here — and they do like him a lot — there are only a few scenarios that Aitcheson gets to the Jackets’ second pick at No. 20, so it makes sense they’d take him here.
In Aitcheson, Blue Jackets are adding a raw defenseman who could become a menacing nightmare to play against while providing two-way value. As one of the more raw prospects, Aitcheson needs time to develop, but there is every reason to believe in his skill set to become a middle-pair defenseman who is difficult to play against, particularly in the postseason.
15. Vancouver Canucks
Braeden Cootes, F, Seattle (WHL)
In what is probably the worst-kept secret in the hockey world, Vancouver is after a center. The Canucks took Cootes to dinner at the combine, have scouted him heavily throughout the season and were very impressed by how he handled himself throughout the combine process. Jack Nesbitt could find himself here because the Canucks love their centers with size, but Cootes and Cole Reschny have higher ceilings.
Cootes should become a middle-six center with reliable two-way ability, excellent off-puck instincts and produce 55 to 65 points each season. If Aitcheson is available, they might not be able to resist the big, menacing defenseman.
The Canadiens have a dynamic offensive presence on their blue line in Calder Trophy winner Lane Hutson, and Reid could be a perfect partner for him. Montreal brass scouted Reid heavily this season, and have many believing it will target him with one of the team’s two first-round selections. The Canadiens are another team that could take Aitcheson, but Reid’s ability to drive play through excellent skating ability and sound decision-making is hard to pass up.
He has the tools to become a solid top-four defenseman, and doesn’t need to overextend himself on offense to provide value. He’s less risky than some of the other available defenseman, with projectable offense and excellent mobility to boost his transition value.
17. Montreal Canadiens
Justin Carbonneau, F, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)
I have Carbonneau higher on my personal board than most because I believe he has sky-high potential as a power forward. With Juraj Slafkovsky already in the fold, the Habs need some more size to complement Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Ivan Demidov.
Carbonneau has the potential to become a dual-threat forward in a top-six role, with high-end creativity. If everything clicks and his decision-making improves, there’s a chance Carbonneau becomes a powerful, play-driving forward. The Habs’ development staff is robust and has done excellent work. Given Carbonneau’s upside, which is significant, he is more than worth the swing for the hometown team.
Calgary needs some depth at center in its prospect pool, and Reschny is good value in this range. He’s a quality playmaker who facilitates offense, and has the best hockey sense of the centers in this range. He doesn’t come with size and will need to play on the inside of the ice to hit his potential of a second-line center, but the offensive tools are there.
The details of his game are nearly NHL-ready, with good battle success, connective play and forechecking. There’s potential to become a dual-threat playmaker and shooter, which is something the Flames covet.
19. St. Louis Blues
Jack Nesbitt, F, Windsor (OHL)
The Blues have used a lot of their best draft capital on defense, and the pressing need for centers in the pipeline can’t be ignored.
Nesbitt has received a lot of love from executives since the scouting combine, and could slide into the top 20. The big center is likely to top out as a third-line, two-way checker but could see elevated offensive potential if he adds speed. At 6-4, he brings size, strength, physicality and the ability to shut down opponents. That is attractive to many teams, including the Blues.
It’s not out of the question that the Blue Jackets take another defenseman with their second first-round pick, and I think it’s more likely than not. Lynden Lakovic would be a strong consideration if he’s available, but Hensler is someone the Columbus brass highly covets.
He’s a quality neutral-zone and transition defender because of his excellent mobility, allowing him to make proactive contact and keep a tight gap. The right-shot defender could become a quality No. 2 or 3 defenseman if he hits his ceiling and continues to develop his offensive game.
21. Ottawa Senators
Lynden Lakovic, F, Moose Jaw (WHL)
Lakovic makes a ton of sense for the Sens. Management seems to really like the big, dual-threat winger with untapped physical potential. He’s smart, moves very well for his 6-4 frame, and should have chemistry in the top six, regardless of which center he plays with.
If Lakovic can develop his physicality, the Sens have a legitimate dual-threat scorer with a power game who should be a difference-maker.
The freight train on skates is gaining a full head of steam heading into Friday night’s first round, and the consensus is that a lot of teams love his style of play and believe he’ll go in the early 20s. Teams with multiple first-round selections tend to take swings with their picks, and Prokhorov is certainly one.
The Flyers are likely to take a big swing with at least one of their firsts, and a sizable, violently physical kid who has raw offensive abilities that can translate into a power forward is exactly the kind of talent someone like new head coach Rick Tocchet would be very excited to develop.
Given where the Predators are selecting at fifth and 23rd, it is highly likely they take a forward at No. 5, if they don’t trade the pick. But given that their pipeline is thin on defense, Boumedienne makes a lot of sense for them here.
Trotz likes to swing on upside, and Boumedienne has the most upside of the defensemen in this range. He has legitimate offensive upside, is an effective breakout passer and is capable of playing a two-way transition game on a second pair. If Logan Hensler is available, he would be a major consideration, and Blake Fiddler is probably in the conversation as well, although the first two are the higher-upside options.
24. Los Angeles Kings
Blake Fiddler, D, Edmonton (WHL)
As noted in my prospect pool needs story, the Kings have almost nothing in the defensive prospect cupboard. Luckily for them, a 6-5 right-handed defenseman with NHL bloodlines is there for the taking in this scenario.
Fiddler is a mobile skater who eliminates play in transition. He has above-average puck-retrieval skills, and projects as a reliable shutdown defenseman at the NHL level. This is the right range for Fiddler, and he fits perfectly with what the Kings need, and will have time to develop into the big, shutdown guy the Kings will rely upon in the years to come.
More and more, I hear that teams are high on Nestrasil’s potential as a skilled power forward. At 6-5, he adds some much-needed size to the Blackhawks’ prospect pool without sacrificing potential.
He’s a longer-term project, but the blend of passing, hockey sense and playmaking is attractive. There is high-end upside as a power forward that is tantalizing, because he has a lot of room to fill out his frame. If he learns to leverage his physicality, he could be a space-creating winger who is capable of playing in the top six in a dual-threat role with a quality release. The upside here is worth the swing for a Chicago team that lacks a big power forward in their prospect pool.
Once thought to be top-10 prospect, Spence would be a great addition to the Preds’ prospect pool. I could see them taking goaltender Joshua Ravensbergen here, but the thought is he may be available when they pick again at No. 35.
Spence brings a good blend of speed, physicality and relentless two-way play. He’s the guy who will go get pucks, create space, forecheck to create turnovers and play in key situations. Spence has more offense to give, and there’s a real chance he becomes a pesty, second-line winger who can play tough matchups. The Preds don’t have a prospect like Spence, and he’d be good value if he can return to last year’s form.
The Capitals have a type, and they love to take swings. Their prospect pool needs a center badly, and while Milton Gastrin is more of a sure thing, getting Kindel — who notched 99 points in the WHL this season — at No. 27 is excellent value.
Many project Kindel to be a winger at the NHL level, but he has the hockey sense, playmaking and speed to be an NHL center. Kindel has a very similar draft-year profile to Brayden Point, and while Kindel may not turn into Brayden Point, the prospect of that is well worth the selection here.
28. Winnipeg Jets
Henry Brzustewicz, D, London (OHL)
The Jets’ prospect pool is really thin on defense, and their scouts have spent a ton of time watching London, so Brzustewicz will be familiar to them.
As the season progressed, Brzustewicz showed offensive instincts with his puck movement and rush activation. There is significant room for offensive growth, and he should be London’s premier defenseman next season. The right-shot blueliner gives the Jets a projectable transition defender with good puck-moving and skating ability who should comfortably fit on the second pair down the road.
The Hurricanes have a profile, and it is drafting prospects with high-end skill and projectable upside. It feels like they’re going to go with one of Ryker Lee or Cullen Potter.
Lee’s statistical profile is slightly better, and he owns elite playmaking, puck skill, a bullet of shot and offensive instincts. His ability to identify quiet areas and release a shot or make a deft play will translate to the NHL. His skating needs to improve to take advantage of those talents, but given that skating is the most easily improvable trait, Lee’s skill package could make him a home run pick.
If Potter is still on the board here, adding the fastest player in the draft would be great value for the Sharks.
While they’d probably prefer to take a defenseman, Potter is too good an asset to pass up for a rebuilding team, and his promising development at the NCAA level could see him become another piece of a highly skilled top six in San Jose. There’s room for some growth for Potter, and given his two-way development, the speedster with an excellent release gives the baby Sharks another offensive player with projectable defensive quality.
Adding a playoff-performing forward with two-way ability and a relentless playing style feels like the perfect Philadelphia Flyer move.
Zonnon has some of the best details in the draft, with excellent forechecking, good defensive instincts and a willingness to get in the dirty areas to win battles. He plays one of the more translatable games of the remaining players, and never cheats for effort.
The Flyers will need players who can fill those roles as they look to contend in the future, and Zonnon has projectable offensive playmaking traits. If he can improve his skating through development of his stride mechanics, there’s a real path to being a fan favorite in the middle six.
If Calgary gets Reschny with their first pick, it is likely they take another center with this pick.
Gastrin has a relatively safe projection as a bottom-six center. He’s more of a play driver than he’s given credit for, and has shown the ability to compete with highly skilled players. He’s a high-floor prospect who showed flashes of more offensive ability than previously thought this season. At a minimum, his instincts and supportive puck play should allow him to become a staple of a checking line that a coach trusts in key situations.
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Ryan S. Clark
Face it. You’ve thought about this at home or at work. You’ve done it when you’re with family and friends. You’ve even thought about it before bed and when you should be watching your favorite team.
Who is going to make the national team for [insert nation] at the Olympics?
Every national team is facing tough personnel decisions. Some more than others. But it all comes with the caveat that so much can change until it’s time to submit their final rosters at the end of December.
Until then, here’s a projection examining what the teams for Canada, Czechia, Finland, Sweden and the United States might look like ahead of the Winter Olympics men’s hockey tournament that begins Feb. 11 in Milan-Cortina.
Jump to a roster:
United States
Canada
Sweden
Finland
Czechia
United States
Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.
Names to watch: G Joey Daccord, F Alex DeBrincat, G Thatcher Demko, D Lane Hutson, F Patrick Kane, F Chris Kreider, F Frank Nazar, F Shane Pinto, F Jason Robertson, F Vincent Trocheck, F Trevor Zegras
From the point: Finding options isn’t going to be a problem for Team USA. Within this projected roster, the Americans can field a lineup that possesses balance and versatility in many areas.
Yet it appears that the two players who could impact Team USA’s roster selection process might be Patrick Kane and Vincent Trocheck. Kane is currently injured and has been out of the lineup since mid-October. Before the injury, he had five points in as many games, which allowed him to present an early case for making the roster in what’s a crowded field at winger.
Trocheck was injured in the second game of the season and began practicing with the New York Rangers on Monday. A fully healthy Trocheck would give Team USA another two-way center who can be trusted to play in numerous situations — as well as one more selection discussion for what makes the most sense down the middle.
How does Thatcher Demko factor into the goaltending discussion?
The U.S. is believed to have the strongest set of goalies of any team eligible for the Olympics. But should its group of three include Demko?
The Vancouver Canucks goaltender was a Vezina Trophy finalist in the 2023-24 season before an injury-riddled 2024-25 season saw him struggle to attain consistency. As of Tuesday, Demko’s save percentage (.911) and goals-against average (2.57) were significantly better than Jeremy Swayman‘s marks (.896, 3.14). He is also fourth in goals saved above average, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Canada
Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.
Names to watch: F Connor Bedard, F Sam Bennett, G Mackenzie Blackwood, D Evan Bouchard, F Anthony Cirelli, D Noah Dobson, F Bo Horvat, F Zach Hyman, D Mike Matheson, F John Tavares
From the point: A wealth of options is Canada’s greatest strength while simultaneously being its biggest challenge. With this particular projection, there is a two-way element with many of the forwards, while the defensive setup has puck movers partnered with stay-at-home options who have size. There are remaining questions:
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What happens if Zach Hyman returns from his wrist injury and provides consistent production?
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How does Canada’s goalie situation change if Mackenzie Blackwood, who has also been injured to start the season, can find consistency?
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Can any of the players who missed the cut in this projection get back on the radar with a strong next month?
Could Canada take Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini?
Speed — and those who know how to use that speed in tight spaces — played a big role in Canada’s success at the 4 Nations Face-Off. Although Canada has numerous players like that in this projection, is it possible it could add more by bringing in Bedard and moving Celebrini into the active lineup?
Both provide another offensive dimension, and Celebrini has shown he can handle the demands of being a two-way center. Either way, expect both to be heavily in the mix in 2030.
Sweden
Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.
Names to watch: F Mikael Backlund, F Andre Burakovsky, D Philip Broberg, D Simon Edvinsson, G Samuel Ersson, D Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D Adam Larsson, F Victor Olofsson
From the point: Sweden appears to have balance throughout its lineup in this projection, although there could still be certain adjustments. Namely, what makes the most sense for Sweden at left wing?
Lucas Raymond and Jesper Bratt have had starts that justify them being on the top two lines; it’s at the bottom two lines where the questions begin. Gabriel Landeskog has three points through his first 13 games though his average ice time is seventh among forwards on the Colorado Avalanche. Before Rickard Rakell broke his hand, he had eight points in nine games; he’ll return sometime in December. And of course, there’s the discussion about whether Sweden should use Elias Pettersson down the middle or on the wing.
Sweden also could be facing questions related to Linus Ullmark‘s struggles to start the season, and if the team could be inclined to take a look at Edvinsson after his start.
Are Simon Edvinsson and Victor Olofsson becoming too hard to ignore?
Playing for two of the top teams in the NHL entering November usually attracts attention, which is the case for Edvinsson and Olofsson.
Edvinsson has continued to carve out his place as one of the Red Wings’ most important players. He has played a top-pairing role, is second on the team in average ice time and 5-on-5 minutes, and is fourth in short-handed minutes.
Olofsson is operating in a top-nine role for the Avs and has used that opportunity to be fifth on the team in points. He’s on pace for a career-high 63 points this season.
Finland
Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.
Names to watch: F Kasperi Kapanen, G Joonas Korpisalo, F Patrik Laine, F Jani Nyman, F Juuso Parssinen, C Aatu Raty, F Eeli Tolvanen, D Juuso Valimaki
From the point: Finland’s potential roster has been — and will likely continue to be — impacted by major injuries this season.
Aleksander Barkov, who was one of Finland’s “first six,” tore an ACL and MCL in training camp, and was the first domino to fall. Finland has seen other players — such as Kaapo Kakko, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Rasmus Ristolainen — miss the start of the regular season while recovering from injuries. Kakko played his first game Nov. 1, Luukkonen made his debut Oct. 25, and Ristolainen is expected to be out until December with a triceps injury.
Patrik Laine sustained a core muscle injury in late October, which could see him miss at least three months — and potentially place his Olympic chances in jeopardy.
What does Finland’s plan look like should more injuries arise?
It’s possible that Finland could find some relief should Laine be cleared to play at the Olympics. But in the event he’s not, Finland could be tempted to turn to some of its younger players in the NHL such as Nyman, Parssinen and Raty at forward. All three entered Nov. 3 with either the same or slightly more points than Jesperi Kotkaniemi in a similar number of games. There’s also the possibility that Finland could opt for more experienced forwards such as Kasperi Kapanen or Eeli Tolvanen.
Another option for Finland’s defense is Valimaki. He was named to Finland’s 4 Nations Face-Off roster but didn’t play. He tore an ACL in March and is expected to return sometime around November or December. He could be an option, given there have been only seven Finnish defensemen who have played in the NHL this season entering November.
Czechia
Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.
Names to watch: F Filip Chlapik, F Jakub Lauko, F Adam Klapka, D Jan Kostalek, F Tomas Nosek, F Michael Spacek, F Matej Stransky, F Simon Stransky, G Karel Vejmelka, F Adam Zboril
From the point: Tomas Hertl, Martin Necas, David Pastrnak and Pavel Zacha have had the sort of starts to the season that strengthen the notion Czechia’s top-six forward corps could make a significant impact at the Games.
Now it’s a matter of determining what Czechia could receive from its supporting cast — with a number of them playing outside of the NHL.
In the most recent men’s IIHF World Championship, Roman Cevenka and Lukas Sedlak finished second and third on the team in points. They’ve continued to produce in the Czech Extraliga, the nation’s top professional league. Jakub Flek has opened the season with 15 goals and 22 points through 21 games.
Which two goalies will join Lukas Dostal on the Czechia roster?
There was a time when Czechia seemed poised to take Dostal, Vejmelka and Dan Vladar as its three goalies. But that appears to have changed — or at least merited a conversation.
The expectation is that Dostal, who was among the first six players named to Czechia’s provisional roster, will be the starter. As for the rest of the field? Jakub Dobes has won his first six games, while his GSAA ranks third in the NHL, per Natural Stat Trick. Vladar entered Tuesday ranked third in goals-against average (2.11) and save percentage (.924) while being 14th in GSAA.
Although Vejmelka has the same number of wins (six) as Dobes, he was 25th in goals-against average, 34th in save percentage and 55th in GSAA.
Sports
How the high-contact, high-octane Blue Jays nearly took down a baseball superpower — and how it could change MLB
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Bradford Doolittle
FOR THE FIRST time in 32 years, the Toronto Blue Jays won the American League pennant.
They also came up just short of snapping their World Series title drought, dropping a memorable, tense, 11-inning Game 7 to the Los Angeles Dodgers at a rollicking Rogers Centre on Saturday.
To push the defending champs as far as they could be pushed, Toronto leaned on a diverse, balanced offense that ranked among MLB’s best all season (fourth in runs per game) and somehow got better in the playoffs despite the unforgiving crucible created by October-style pitching staffs.
All of this from a team that just a year ago finished last in the AL East and ranked 23rd in scoring. All this from a team that, after some disappointing free agent pursuits over the past couple of years, entered the playoffs with largely the same roster as last year.
This year, at least, splashy overhauls were overrated.
“The players that are here, they have continued to get better,” Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said at the Series’ outset.
As the powder-blue dust settles from a magical run that saw the Blue Jays turn an entire nation on its proverbial ear, questions are turning to whether their accomplishment can be replicated. Some of it is standard: whether the latest “it” team can sustain its sudden rise. In a larger sense, though, the baseball industry is wondering what this Toronto run means.
Featuring an offense whose standout trait was an MLB-best batting average, the Blue Jays weren’t just a successful team that adapted to every challenge along the way. The Blue Jays were fun, an absolute gas to watch — for the simple reason that they put the ball in play.
They were led by one of the most fun players in baseball, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who spent the past month terrorizing opposing pitchers. He did it with an elite combination of contact and pop, something that his teammates emulated as best they could. In becoming more like Vladdy, the Toronto offense turned into a juggernaut. And, now, the Blue Jays have the offense everyone else wants to have.
They leveraged Guerrero’s presence to give them the identity they sought, and they acquired and molded players to work in that approach.
“We have always felt that contact would turn into more damage,” Atkins said. “This year, it did.”
Identity. Aesthetics. Success. And now, a pennant. The Toronto Blue Jays nearly won it all, and as we watched Canada fall in love with them, we have to ask: Have the Blue Jays solved the strikeout era?
REALLY, THE EMPHASIS on batting average in this case is more an avatar about Toronto’s style of play than about the ancient baseball statistic. Still, the Blue Jays led the majors in the category, and that was no accident. In fact, before Game 6, Blue Jays manager John Schneider mentioned it after he was asked about comments by Dodgers pitcher Blake Snell, who said the Toronto hitters had gotten lucky on what Snell felt were some pretty good pitches when they beat the lefty in Game 5.
“No, I thought we took good swings early on his fastball,” Schneider said. “And I think we led the league in batting average this year.”
The Blue Jays have constructed a lineup that balances the objective of making consistent contact — even in today’s hyper-strikeout context — remarkably, without losing the ability to hit the ball out of the park and for extra bases.
The Blue Jays aren’t all batting average, and it’s not all about simply making contact. Toronto rated better than the MLB average in home run percentage and isolated power. The Blue Jays were also third in line-drive rate, which helps fuel the average.
During the regular season, the Blue Jays ranked 23rd in the majors in scoring 38.3% of their runs on home runs. That number rose to 48% in the playoffs, but the strikeout rate remained low.
The Blue Jays led the majors with the lowest strikeout rate (17.8%) of any team over the past eight seasons — and lowered that number to 17.1% in the postseason, the lowest by a playoff team that played at least three games since the 2014 San Francisco Giants.
The increase in home run percentage in the playoffs paired with the stunning improvement in strikeout rate unsurprisingly led to more scoring. Toronto scored 4.93 runs per game during the season, ranking fourth, but rolled up an average of 5.83 runs during its 18 postseason games, nearly 30% more than any other team.
Not just contact. Not just power. Toronto puts the ball in play, but its approach always had to be more than that if it was going to translate to the high-stakes games.
“We tried to thread the needle a little bit with that going from last year to this year,” Schneider said. “Understanding that our main guys make a lot of contact, we leaned into it a little bit. And I think, at the same time, you don’t want to just be playing pingpong.”
The Blue Jays finished third in OPS during the regular season behind the New York Yankees and Dodgers, but with better batting averages and on-base percentages than both. With runners in scoring position, Toronto led the majors in average (.292) and BABIP (.329). Only the Kansas City Royals struck out less after counts that reached two strikes. Over and over, the Blue Jays showed an ability to adjust and adapt to what was needed and what was thrown.
The Blue Jays aren’t the first successful playoff team to focus on contact — most of the excellent Houston Astros offenses during their run of success over the past decade featured a relatively balanced attack. The champion 2018 Boston Red Sox were another team like that.
But the Blue Jays might be the most impressive version that we’ve seen yet, if only because the difficulties of hitting for average keep increasing with each passing year as more and more strikeout pitchers arrive in the majors.
It’s worth considering the team the Dodgers vanquished one round before Toronto, the Milwaukee Brewers, who ranked third in regular-season batting average (.258) and posted the fourth-lowest strikeout rate (20.3%). But whereas the Blue Jays gave Los Angeles’ red-hot pitching staff far more trouble than any of the Dodgers’ National League playoff opponents, the Brewers’ hitters were more or less helpless during L.A.’s sweep of the National League Championship Series.
Maybe Milwaukee just ran into the Dodgers’ pitching buzzsaw just as many of its hitters were struggling. Still, it is worth noting that although Milwaukee and Toronto both paired elite averages with elite contact rates, they were in fact very different offenses, one that worked in the playoffs and one that did not.
For one, the Blue Jays were the more veteran team, with an average hitter age more than one season older than the Brewers’. The bigger difference was that the Blue Jays didn’t run all that much, so it was their collective extra-base ability that augmented their high-contact approach, whereas the Brewers went wild on the basepaths. Finally, the Brewers walked more — the Blue Jays weren’t a wild-swinging team but were only about league average in walk percentage.
Even though Milwaukee walked just as often during the playoffs, its lack of collective pop continued and its strikeout rate spiked, leading to a cratering in average and on-base percentage. With no one getting on base, the Brewers weren’t able to get their running game going, especially against the Dodgers.
The level of pitching that playoff teams have to navigate is brutal. Teams have condensed their staffs to their nastiest hurlers. The built-in travel days give the best of those hurlers more game-free rest days. Over the past decade, during baseball’s era of strikeout hyperinflation, teams have struck out 22.4% of the time during the regular season. At playoff time, that number jumps to 24.8%, even though the best offenses are generally still playing.
The Blue Jays turned that around. When a team can navigate the postseason with an offense that somehow gets better during the playoffs, the industry will notice.
IT’S ESPECIALLY NOTABLE because the majority of the position players who appeared during the World Series were with the club last season, and in many cases, have been with the organization for years.
That wasn’t entirely intentional. The Blue Jays wanted to sign Juan Soto, but didn’t. They wanted to sign Shohei Ohtani, but didn’t. Instead, the front office crafted a revamped offensive philosophy under the guidance of a hitting staff led by coach David Popkins, who was hired just more than a year ago.
Popkins, who came to Toronto last October after parting ways with the Minnesota Twins, talked to MLB.com about his philosophy before the season.
“My philosophy is built off of creativity,” Popkins said. “We’re trying to become the most creative lineup at scoring runs in baseball. We do that by practicing all of the different situations and clubs that we’re going to need in the game.”
By “clubs,” Popkins doesn’t mean teams or opponents, but golf clubs. Popkins was talking about an initiative in which, just as in golf, you pick a specific iron or wood or wedge based on the terrain and the distance to the hole, and he would craft a baseball lineup that was adaptable to the game situation and the pitcher on the mound.
This meant that, at the very least, the Blue Jays, under Popkins, were not going with the kind of all-or-nothing approach that has become too prevalent in 2020s baseball. Get a pitch and launch it. It’s an easy philosophy to describe but incredibly complex to implement.
“We say all the time, ‘What club do you take out of your bag?'” Schneider said. “I think last year, we had a lot of guys just hanging out with like a 7-iron the entire time. So, it’s when to use that, when to use a driver. And knowing that they can make contact is kind of a little safety net for them.”
Schneider and his players tout the work of Popkins and his staff. When they were hired last fall, the hitting coaches had no way to know that they were working with a championship-caliber offense because the lineup was not on that level last season.
“[Popkins] gets praise, but he probably doesn’t get enough,” Bo Bichette said. “The energy he brings every day is second to none. I’ve never experienced that from a coach, the passion. When you have that type of passion, you tend to really learn about your craft and learn what it takes. He’s helped all of us for sure.
“We have a ton of talent who — myself in particular — didn’t perform to our capabilities last year. So, that plays a part. But I think we train to be able to do anything in the batter’s box.”
Certainly, there is position regression in these numbers — players bouncing back after down seasons — but consider the following list of leaps in batting average:
Addison Barger, .197 to .243
Bichette, .225 to .311
Ernie Clement, .263 to .277
Alejandro Kirk, .253 to .282
Davis Schneider, .191 to .234
Daulton Varsho .214 to .238
Bichette, who became a free agent after the World Series, might be the litmus test for how eager teams are to follow in Toronto’s footsteps. He’s a career .294 hitter but doesn’t run well, even when healthy, and his declining defensive metrics suggest a need to move down the defensive spectrum. But at the plate, he pairs contact with consistent extra-base ability. If you want a Blue Jays offense, why not sign one of the players most responsible for making it work?
And then there’s 36-year-old George Springer, whose jump from .220 to .309 was the largest year-over-year improvement in batting average among any qualifying hitter this season. Overall, Toronto’s team average went from .241 to .265, even though Anthony Santander (.175) and Andres Gimenez (.210) struggled.
Much has been made about one aspect of the Blue Jays’ improved contact ability and success, and converting that contact into hits. That’s bat speed, which is now tracked by Statcast and can be monitored by teams and fans.
The Blue Jays weren’t elite in average bat speed, but a number of their key hitters showed marked increases over last year — Guerrero, Clement and Barger, just to name a few. Springer was up by nearly 2 mph in his age-35 season.
Yet, all of these players controlled those faster bats, got wood on the ball and did so with authority. The formula seems blindingly obvious. If the pitchers are throwing harder, then the hitters need to swing faster. It’s not remotely that simple in reality, but this is, in effect, what the Blue Jays did.
“I think the whole industry kind of started looking at that last year with more public knowledge of it, public information of it,” Schneider said. “When guys were throwing as hard as they are, you got to combat it somehow, whether it’s with bat speed or mechanics.”
THE BLUE JAYS’ modernized approach to an old-school offense succeeded at a time when many major league teams have put more emphasis on identifying, scouting and developing contact hitting. Toronto is arguably the first team of this era to break through at this level with such an approach.
Because this has already been a trend around baseball, Toronto’s success might be less of a light bulb flashing in the minds of rival executives and more of a validation for what other teams have been trying to do.
“In terms of how baseball goes forward, to me, pitching is so good these days with the stuff and the velo, you have to be able to put the ball in play,” Schneider said. “You have to put pressure on the defense and the pitcher. I like that we can do it in a variety of ways.”
For MLB — the entity — it’s a revelation because the approach didn’t just work, it also was so much fun to watch. And, most importantly, it paid off with a pennant and a thrilling World Series performance that will be long remembered. If you needed any more evidence for that than what existed before this Fall Classic, you just had to feel the Rogers Centre vibrating on the banks of Lake Ontario as the World Series reached its historic crescendo.
They didn’t win it all, but the season was a triumph for the Blue Jays, a triumph for Toronto and a triumph for all of Canada. And if more teams can be like the Blue Jays going forward, it’ll be a triumph for baseball fans, too.
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