
NHL draft grades: From the excellent (Islanders, Hurricanes) to the confusing (Maple Leafs)
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Rachel DoerrieJun 29, 2025, 08:00 AM ET
Close- Rachel Doerrie is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.
The 2025 NHL draft that took far too long has mercifully finished. Any of the 26 teams that voted to hold a decentralized draft, you get a Z grade for that. Not an F, a Z. Let’s never do that again. Back to centralization, please.
Every team is getting a draft grade, regardless of how many players they selected. The grades are based upon the value each team extracted with their picks. So, a team with three first-round picks might have a lower grade than a team with three total picks because they reached on players and could’ve added significantly more talent to their organization, while the team with three picks added value and talent with each selection.
The grade is weighted against the expectation of what teams could reasonably have done with their selections based on my model and team need. Reaching on a player to address a team need while leaving a higher-value player on the board is going to lower the grade. When a team is drafting in the top 16, it is because that team wasn’t good enough for the playoffs and the organization needs talent. Ditto for teams with multiple first-round picks — those aren’t acquired unless valuable players are being traded away for purposes of rebuilding or retooling.
Trade scenarios will be considered, because it is a good strategy to accumulate value by moving down, or acquiring players that fit the organizational timeline. A team that trades back, acquiring multiple selections and extracts value with those selections will likely be graded higher than a team that traded up to select its “guy.” A team like the Montreal Canadiens, who traded multiple picks to acquire and extend a top-4 defenseman in Noah Dobson will have that factored into their grade because they entered the draft with those assets and used them to acquire an asset that aligns with their organizational goals.
Here is every team’s grade for the 2025 draft:
‘A’ grades
For Day 1 alone, the Islanders are getting an A+. If there were a higher grade possible, they’d be getting it. It’s incredible to add a franchise defenseman in Matthew Schaefer who will not only impact the organization positively through his play but is likely to become a future captain. However, it was also the trading of Noah Dobson, who was not going to re-sign, and using those selections to nab the falling Victor Eklund and potential middle-pairing defender Kashawn Aitcheson that boosted the grade.
The Isles didn’t overthink anything. You have to hit on your first-round picks, and every time they made a selection, they took quality players who confidently project to be impactful. There’s a real chance the Isles added a franchise cornerstone, a top-six forward with a blend of hard and soft skill, and a tough-to-play-against defender with raw offensive potential.
On Day 2, GM Mathieu Darche continued stockpiling projectable NHL talent. Daniil Prokhorov has the potential to become a high-end power forward, and Luca Romano should play NHL games in a middle-six role. Tomas Poletin is a reasonable bet on upside and Burke Hood in the late rounds is excellent value. This could be a franchise-changing draft for the Islanders.
The Bruins were the beneficiaries of some interesting decisions at the top of the draft, and managed to secure their top-line center for the future — and the third best player in the draft — in James Hagens. The Bruins have needed help up the middle for a few years, and Hagens is not far off from becoming an NHL star. He was one of the most valuable picks in the draft, simply because players with his talent and skill aren’t available at No. 7 very often.
Following that up by drafting Will Moore and Cooper Simpson were value picks in their range, and both have legitimate NHL upside. They will take longer to get to the NHL, but I like Boston’s accumulation of talent in the draft with those two as well as Liam Pettersson on the back end. There’s a fair chance Boston gets four NHL players from this draft, including one potential star on their top line.
1:48
Adam Sandler announces Bruins pick at NHL draft
Adam Sandler gives a nod to his famous “Happy Gilmore” character to announce the Bruins picking Boston College’s James Hagens with the seventh pick.
I feel like we say this every year, but my goodness the Carolina Hurricanes did it, again. They got tremendous value in their trade back with the Canadiens, using those picks to draft two projectable NHL talents in Semyon Frolov and Charlie Cerrato. Frolov’s stock grew as the season progressed, and he has a real chance at becoming a 1B goaltender in a tandem. Both Ivan Ryabkin and Kurban Limatov provided a ton of value at their spots, and both have legitimate paths to becoming NHL players. Ryabkin in particular could become a real gem if he improves his consistency.
In the late rounds, I loved the Filip Ekberg and Viggo Nordlund selections as both are smaller, but highly skilled wingers with scoring potential in the NHL. There’s a boom-or-bust quality to both of them, but if they hit, there’s top-six scoring upside and those are exactly the types of players you should be swinging for in the late rounds. It’s likely the Canes have to wait a few years for these players to have an impact, but they should get at least two or three from this draft class.
Any time you add the best forward (Michael Misa) and best goalie (Joshua Ravensbergen) in the draft, you’re going to be happy. There’s a real chance the Sharks come away with a starting goalie and an elite forward who scores over a point per game. That alone, would find them graded with at least a B+. Add in Simon Wang, the highest-drafted Chinese-born player in NHL history, with elite skating ability and a 6-foot-6 frame, and the Sharks bolstered every area of their prospect pool.
I thought Blake Fiddler would have been a more sound selection at No. 33, but the Sharks like Wang’s raw ability and upside which is a decision I can get behind. If Wang hits, he’s going to be an impactful defender in the NHL that many teams wish they’d drafted.
Getting Cole McKinney at No. 53 was great value as well. McKinney’s got more offense to give and at a minimum, he’ll be a bottom-six player who is reliable defensively and on the penalty kill. When all is said and done, there’s a real chance the Sharks get four players from this draft, including a dual-threat, two-way center who is going to make the Sharks a matchup nightmare for teams over the next decade.
Getting Roger McQueen, a player with top-five talent, at No. 10 is tremendous value for the Ducks. They add another big, powerful forward to their stable of young players, and McQueen’s skill set is elite. If McQueen hits his ceiling, the Ducks have a unicorn, and someone who could dominate on both sides of the puck.
Eric Nilson in the second was another valuable selection. He’s a reasonable bet to become a bottom-six contributor whom the Ducks rely on to play secondary matchups and responsible defensive hockey. Elijah Neuenschwander is a more than reasonable bet in goal, and getting him in the late rounds adds to his value.
The Ducks likely added at least two quality NHL players to their organization and got good value all over the board, while finally trading John Gibson — the rumors can end.
Note: If there were bonus points for synergy, the Ducks would be getting an A+ for drafting McQueen, sending him to Disneyland and doing a photo op with Lightning McQueen. Here’s hoping he wears No. 95 because the fun marketing opportunities would be plentiful.
Not only did the Flames address organizational needs with this draft class, they got significant value with the Cullen Potter and Aiden Lane picks, while getting Cole Reschny and Theo Stockselius in the right range. All of those players are going to need development time, but are reasonable bets to play NHL games.
Reschny and Potter are high-end upside picks with NHL attributes who could see them make an impact in the middle six. The Flames needed centers, and there’s a decent chance that at least two of these players provide value at center for them. If Potter moves to the wing, he may flourish as a speedster with an excellent shot.
I liked the swing on Aiden Lane late in the draft, as he’s a late bloomer who has some bottom-six upside. The Flames extracted a ton of value with their selections this weekend and should be pleased with their new group of young talent.
There’s a lot to like about what the Red Wings did this weekend, and they likely nabbed at least two long-term NHL players in Carter Bear and Eddie Genborg. Bear was good value in the teens, and brings a projectable two-way game with high-end playmaking skills. As an added bonus, he has some of the coveted hard skill teams were looking for because he plays in the dirty areas, wins puck battles and creates space for his teammates. He’s two or three years away but should be a quality top-six forward when he’s ready.
I liked the Genborg selection as a good middle-six player who thrives with skill. He’ll be a good complementary player when he’s ready.
Once the top goalies were gone, I really liked the swing on Michal Pradel. The Red Wings aren’t short on goaltending prospects, and he’s another guy who has a chance to be an NHL goaltender. Count me as a fan of the Michal Svrcek pick in the fourth round because of his upside as a speedster with competitive bite. Add in the John Gibson trade — which gives the Red Wings immediate help — and they had a pretty good weekend.
The Predators were a mixed bag for me in this draft. Did they get some high-end talent? Absolutely. Did they leave some high-end talent on the board? Unequivocally.
I understand betting on Brady Martin and why so many teams liked him, but Nashville is starved for elite talent and left James Hagens and Porter Martone on the board. If Martin hits, he’s a valuable playoff player, but there are not many scenarios where he’s more valuable than Hagens or Martone.
I loved their swing on Ryker Lee, who could be an elite top-six forward if his skating improves. His offensive tool kit is one of the draft’s best. Cameron Reid in the 20s was solid value, and he’ll be a quality middle-pairing defender for years. I really liked the Jacob Rombach and Jack Ivankovic selections, too. The Preds needed a goaltender and if Ivankovic grows, he has the foundation of talent to be the best goalie of the crop.
Strap in because this one was a ride!
The Flyers needed a center, passed on Hagens, but got Porter Martone. I love Martone’s game and think he has a ton of potential, but it feels like they went with size. Having said that, I’m not going to dock them grading points because Martone at No. 6 was excellent value. If his skating improves, he’s going to be a star.
The decision to trade up to No. 13 and select Jack Nesbitt not only left a ton of value on the board from a player perspective, but the Flyers lost the pick value trade to their state rival. Nesbitt will be a solid third-line center, but I have some serious concerns about the Flyers drafting for size with a lower ceiling.
Outside of that, I loved the Carter Amico, Jack Murtagh, Shane Vansaghi and Matthew Gard picks. The Flyers clearly had a mission to get bigger and meaner, because every pick was spent on a player with some level of size and competitive meanness that Rick Tocchet is going to love. The Flyers certainly got a lot better this weekend, but there is little doubt that some talent was left on the board.
2:00
Charles Barkley announces Porter Martone as No. 6 pick in NHL draft
NBA Hall of Famer Charles Barkley helps the Flyers select Porter Martone with the sixth pick of the NHL draft.
The Kraken got a lot better this weekend, particularly with their first two picks. Jake O’Brien projects as an offensively gifted top-six playmaking center. Seattle has a ton of quality young centers and whether they move one or two to the wing or trade one to address another need, the Kraken are well positioned because they constantly draft the best available players.
Blake Fiddler is another example of that, with the Kraken grabbing a first-round talent in the second round. He’s very likely to be a middle-pair defender who plays shutdown minutes. Not only does Seattle address an organizational need, it gets excellent value.
I liked the Will Reynolds and Maxim Agafonov picks as well. Both have some NHL-caliber traits and are worthy swings where the Kraken took them. Overall, another good draft for Seattle.
I loved what the Jets did with their draft capital. Adding Sascha Boumedienne to a prospect pool that is razor thin on defense was tidy work. He’s mobile, saw significant development in his defensive play and should become a quality middle-pairing defender and PP2 guy if his decision-making improves.
Viktor Klingsell was a high-value addition when the Jets grabbed him. He was one of the best skilled players taken in the late rounds, and that’s exactly the type of player you take in the fifth. If he fills out, there’s a middle-six player in there.
I also really liked the Owen Martin and Jacob Cloutier picks. Martin plays a pro-style game that should see him develop into a depth player, while Cloutier is a home run hack at a smaller player who is highly competitive and could be a nice addition if his skating improves. The Jets got good value with all their picks, swung on talent and improved their prospect pool.
‘B’ grades
The Blackhawks clearly had a modus operandi here, and it was “big dudes who can skate.”
I liked Anton Frondell at No. 3, but they definitely left talent on the board with Hagens to opt for Frondell’s size. He’s likely going to be a top-line forward, so you can’t be too upset with that organizational decision.
Both Vaclav Nestrasil and Mason West were a little high for my liking, but both of them are very raw, long-runway type projects with sky-high upside. Given the prospect cupboards, Chicago can afford to take those kinds of swings because both of them could end up as middle-six complementary players who are incredibly difficult to play against. At a minimum, they bet on big guys with skill, and I can get behind that.
Nathan Behm and Julius Sumpf provided good value at their respective slots, and I think there’s a chance that one of them plays NHL games. Certainly, the Blackhawks should get two or three NHL players from this crop of picks, but their development staff is going to be tested.
The Canadiens had themselves a weekend. Trading away the selections that amounted to Victor Eklund and Kashawn Aitcheson to acquire Noah Dobson fit their timeline, but that may turn out to be a hefty price.
They love Alexander Zharovsky and it is easy to see why, but gave up quite a bit of pick value to get him. Nevertheless, I like Zharovsky’s game, and he should be a quality complementary player in the middle six.
In the middle rounds, I absolutely loved the selections of Hayden Paupanekis, Bryce Pickford and personal favorite — L.J. Mooney. All of those players have legitimate NHL upside to varying degrees. Mooney is small, but his compete level and offensive abilities provided outstanding value. Paupanekis should become a bottom-6 player and Pickford is a great bet on an overage defenseman with scoring ability.
All in all, it’s hard not to be happy with the weekend, even if they parted with some very valuable assets to get their guys.
Friday night was a banner night for the Senators. Trading back two spots and acquiring the pick that allowed them to trade for Jordan Spence while extracting tremendous value with Logan Hensler at No. 23 is high-end asset management. I really like Hensler’s game and believe he has the tools to become a solid second or third defender who would complement Jake Sanderson very well. The fact that he’s right-handed and very mobile with an NHL frame makes him very valuable.
The Senators are thin in goal, and taking a swing on Lucas Beckman was a decision that made a lot of sense. Bruno Idzan is a high-upside bet, and a worthwhile one based on his USHL production. He has the potential to be a late bloomer who contributes in a depth role.
The Capitals extracted excellent value with their first two picks in the draft, and both players are solid bets to become middle-six contributors at the NHL level.
Lynden Lakovic has the potential to be a big, dual-threat producer and would be even more exciting if he learns to use his 6-4 frame to physically impose himself on opponents. The ceiling is high for Lakovic, and getting a top-15 player at No. 27 is good work.
Milton Gastrin is one of the more complete players in the draft and shouldn’t be far off from the NHL. He’s got third-line center written all over him and could provide more offense than most think.
Outside of that, I liked the selection of Maxim Schaefer, who has more skill than most of the players taken in the fourth round. Given what they had, the Caps got good value and came away with at least two players who should play impactful roles in their lineup.
The Kings had a fine draft — nothing to be overly excited about and nothing to be disappointed with, either.
They got some value with Jimmy Lombardi, who has projectable NHL play-driving ability and skill. If his speed improves, he could really pop. Petteri Rimpinen was another value-added pick in the late rounds, and worth the swing based on his development curve. Kristian Epperson provided value in the third round as an overager, and should fit nicely in a third-line role when he’s ready.
Henry Brzustewicz was a fine pick, but the Kings took him a little early considering some of the other valuable defensemen on the board at No. 31. They’re betting that his development skyrockets in London, which they’ll need if he’s going to provide value in a second-pair role. Vojtech Cihar was a bit rich for me in the second round because he lacks upside, but I don’t doubt he’ll be an NHL contributor in the bottom six.
The Wild didn’t give Judd Brackett a lot to work worth, but there was value to be had with their selections.
There’s more offense to give with Theodor Hallquisth, and next season in the SHL will go a long way to determining what his NHL projection is likely to be. At minimum, he’s a reliable puck mover who has the tools to be a depth defender if his skating improves.
The real value came from selecting Adam Benak, who is one of the best skaters and smartest players in the draft class. But he’s small, so of course he fell. He was by far the most skilled player available in the fourth round, and if he grows a couple inches, he has the special talent to be a top-six player. I liked the Justin Kipkie selection; he was one of the best overage defensemen available in the draft and a worthwhile bet.
The Devils were a mixed bag, drafting guys with good value and a few head-scratchers — including a player who didn’t play a single game this season (Sigge Holmgren).
I loved the Ben Kevan selection at the end of the second round. He’s a great skater with good offensive qualities. Conrad Fondrk was another good upside bet with good passing and shooting skill. Both could become valuable members of a third line that contributes offensively.
I liked the Mason Moe and Gustav Hillstrom selections as well. They have a longer path to becoming NHL players, but both are good bets and decent value for the draft slot. The Devils did well for what they had.
Wes Clark loves to take big swings and he did it again. I absolutely love Benjamin Kindel as a player; he has real upside as a top-six forward, but I’m not convinced he’s going to be better than some of the players they left on the board. Trading down to acquire a third first-round pick was great, but again, value was left on the board.
There is little doubt Bill Zonnon is going to be an NHL player. He was in the right range and should be a valuable middle-six asset. I thought the Penguins could’ve traded back with the Will Horcoff pick, but I understand why they like him. If he hits his ceiling, he’s going to be a solid complementary player in the middle six. Failing that, he’s likely to top out in a depth role.
On Day 2, the Pens got excellent value in Charlie Trethewey, who could blossom into a fourth or fifth defender with excellent puck movement. Peyton Kettles and Quinn Beauchesne were two other selections I liked, and both have legitimate NHL upside.
Given the Mammoth’s stated goal of adding size and tenacity up front, it was not surprising to see them draft Caleb Desnoyers. I would’ve elected for Martone if size was their goal, because he’s got higher offensive upside, but Desnoyers is a solid bet to become a second-line, two-way center. He’ll shoulder all the matchup pressure and free up the likes of Logan Cooley and Barrett Hayton to play offensively. It’s a very understandable pick for the Mammoth.
I loved the selection of Max Psenicka in the second round. I think he’s got a higher offensive upside than he’s given credit for, with potential to become a quality shutdown defender on the second pair. Their other selections don’t project to be NHL players, but the first two selections should be stalwarts in their lineup for years to come.
They didn’t have a lot to play with, but I loved the Jakob Ihs Wozniak and Mateo Nobert selections. Ihs Wozniak has one of the best shots in the draft and should score 20-25 goals per season in the NHL. Trading up to get a prospect who will have value around the league (before they inevitably trade him) is smart business. Getting a player with high-30s talent in the late stages of the second round is quality value.
Nobert is another offensive talent and could become a quality complementary player down the line. He was a more than reasonable bet in the third round. For what they had to work with, the Golden Knights should be happy with how they fared.
The Blue Jackets addressed a need and got great value by adding Jackson Smith in the middle of the first round. If Smith’s offense continues to develop, there’s a real chance the Blue Jackets drafted the second-best defender of the class much later than he should have gone.
The Pyotr Andreyanov pick was a head scratcher — not because I don’t believe in his potential, but because he wasn’t the top goalie on the board, and the Blue Jackets could have traded back to get him. Trading back would’ve been best if they wanted a goalie. They had an opportunity to grab the likes of Lakovic and Hensler, who would’ve been great organizational fits. Andreyanov is five or six years from playing in North America, which is a long time to wait for a first-round pick, but upside as a 1B starter is attractive.
I also think the Malte Vass selection provided value.
2:50
Johnny Gaudreau’s wife announces the Blue Jackets’ draft pick
Meredith Gaudreau, Johnny Gaudreau’s widow, joins the NHL draft to announce the Blue Jackets selecting Jackson Smith with the 14th pick.
The Dallas Stars’ ability to get a top-40 player despite not selecting until pick No. 94 is very Dallas Stars of them.
Cameron Schmidt, who had more than 40 goals in the WHL, is one of the best goal scorers in the draft. But he’s short, so teams decided to draft players with lower upside and projectable talent. He’s a quality skater, and players with two separating skills are almost never available at that spot. If Schmidt hits, we’re going to be talking about how the Stars “did it again” just like they did with Logan Stankoven.
Outside of that, the Stars had nothing to write home about. The selection of Schmidt alone provided the highest value in the draft from ranking and projection to selection, something the Stars are all too familiar with. At some point, the skill and upside need to outweigh the height, because too many taken before him are far less likely to become NHLers.
For what the Blues had to work with, they got some good value. I loved the selection of Justin Carbonneau at No. 19. If he puts it all together, he could be a premier power forward in the NHL with his size, skill and ability to create scoring opportunities. He has some of the best upside in the draft and could be a quality top-six forward for the Blues.
They didn’t select until much later on Day 2, but I liked the Mikhail Fyordorov selection as a reasonable bet given his production in the MHL. He’s got a long way to go, but his offensive creativity is exactly what the Blues should be swinging for.
The Canucks’ draft was fine. They left value on the board to take Braeden Cootes, but he’s going to be a solid middle-six contributor and addresses the organization’s pressing need for centers. They tried to trade that pick for immediate help, but in the end, Cootes was right in that range.
I loved the selection of Alexei Medvedev, a pick that has Ian Clark’s fingerprints all over it. He’s big and moldable and has the mental makeup to be a tandem goalie in the NHL.
In a departure from previous years, the Canucks used most of their picks on players with scoring profiles and skill, something their prospect pipeline needs. They made reasonable bets on upside picks in the middle rounds who will test their development staff. They left value on the board with Kieren Dervin and could’ve swung on Schmidt or Mooney, but overall, it was a reasonable draft.
‘C’ grades
Buffalo had a modus operandi that was quite a bit different from previous drafts, and it showed.
Radim Mrtka is a reasonable bet to play top-four minutes in the NHL and fits the profile of big and hard to play against. That was a bit high for him and left significant talent on the board, but the Sabres clearly identified Mrtka as an organizational need.
David Bedkowski was a good selection as one of the most violent, physical defenders in the draft, and if he makes it, he will fill a depth role and be a nightmare to play against. There’s a real chance that those are the only players who play NHL games for the Sabres in this draft class, as they departed from their previous MO of drafting high-end skill.
For a team that didn’t have any high picks (or many picks at all), I liked the swings the Oilers took, particularly on Tommy Lafreniere and David Lewandowski. They don’t have strong NHL projections by any means, but betting on their upside is a smart thing to do. I had those players going earlier than they did, giving the Oilers good value with their selections. If either Lafreniere or Lewandowski hit, they should provide complementary scoring in depth roles, something the Oilers will absolutely need while their contention window is open.
I debated docking the Oilers for not outbidding the Red Wings for John Gibson and addressing a significant organizational need, because the probability of Gibson helping the Oilers out in their contention window far exceeds the probability of any draft picks doing the same. With Joel Hofer re-signing with the Blues as well, the Oilers are going to have a tough time improving an area that desperately needs immediate help.
This entire grade hinges on Malcolm Spence, who provided tremendous value for the Rangers in the second round. There is little doubt he will become a middle-six pest, and if the Rangers can sort out their development issues, he’s got the chance to be a second-line winger.
Sean Barnhill is a fine selection, but probably a little high. There’s NHL potential there with his skating, but he’ll need to improve his decision making to be a depth NHL defender. I liked the swing on Mikkel Eriksen. He could fill a depth role and at least become a quality AHL player. The Rangers left value on the board at every other selection.
There’s not a ton to write home about when it comes to the Lightning’s draft class, but I really liked the Ethan Czata selection. Lightning fans love Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel, and Czata is built in that mold. He’s got good touch around the net, and if he adds speed, has all the tools to become a pesky middle-six contributor who is a nightmare to play against because of his physical nature.
I liked the swing on Benjamin Rautiainen because if he fills out, he’s a brilliant shooter with good puck skill. If he hits, he’s got the potential to be a complementary scorer in the NHL. Outside of that, he’s likely a high-end AHL player who can fill in when injuries occur.
‘D’ grades
When you win back-to-back Stanley Cups, you’re probably not going to have an elite draft because you don’t have many picks.
I’m a fan of the Shamar Moses pick: I think he provides value at that spot with an outside chance to play NHL games. The Panthers are unlikely to get NHL players from this crop of prospects, but the Moses pick bumps their grade up because he has an NHL projection in a depth role, something the Panthers will need if they intend to keep their contention window open for the next few years.
They didn’t have many picks, and I didn’t love what they did with any of them. I thought they left talent on the board with each of their selections and didn’t take any players with an NHL projection. Given their contention window and few draft picks, I would’ve liked to have seen them swing on higher upside, because contenders need to hit on those players to keep that window open longer.
Francesco Dell’Elce has a chance to be a depth defender, but as an overager, his development runway is shorter. It’s probable the Avs don’t get any NHL players from their draft, with Dell’Elce being the only one with an outside shot at bottom-pair minutes.
It seems like the Maple Leafs hired one of the best talent evaluators in hockey, but then gave him an edict instead of letting him cook. GM Brad Treliving has made it very clear that he wants size in this lineup, but the Leafs left far too much skill and upside on the board to accomplish that.
There is a very real possibility the Leafs got one depth NHL player (Tyler Hopkins) from this draft class, and that’s it. A lot of the players they selected are very raw, with size being their best attribute. When you leave players like Behm, Limatov, Thretheway, Mooney and Schmidt on the board who have legitimate NHL upside in valuable roles, it feels like a choice.
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Can the Rangers’ offense be fixed? Five numbers that tell the story of Texas’ lineup woes
Published
3 hours agoon
July 20, 2025By
admin
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Alden GonzalezJul 20, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the L.A. Rams for ESPN from 2016 to 2018 and the L.A. Angels for MLB.com from 2012 to 2016.
Less than two years ago, the Texas Rangers rode a potent offense to the first World Series championship in franchise history. Since then — on paper, at least — that group has only improved. Established sluggers were brought in. Young, promising players accrued more seasoning. Core stars remained in their primes. And yet, over the course of 10 baseball months since hoisting the trophy on Nov. 1, 2023, the Rangers have fielded one of the sport’s worst offenses, a sobering reality that continues to vex team officials.
The circumstances of 2025 have only intensified the frustration.
The Rangers have received Cy Young-caliber production from a rejuvenated Jacob deGrom, who had compiled fewer than 200 innings over the last four years. Their rotation went into the All-Star break with the second-lowest ERA in the major leagues. Their bullpen, practically rebuilt over one offseason, ranked third. Their defense (16 outs above average) was elite, as was their baserunning (10.8 runs above average). But the Rangers, despite back-to-back wins over the first-place Detroit Tigers this weekend, find themselves only a game over .500, seven games out of first place and 2 1/2 games out of a playoff spot, because they can’t do the one thing they were expected to do best: hit.
Bret Boone, the former All-Star second baseman who was installed as the team’s hitting coach in early May, has been tasked with fixing that — but he is also realistic.
“I’m not gonna come in here and ‘abracadabra,'” he said, waving his right arm as if wielding a magic wand. “That’s the big misnomer about hitting. Hitting is really hard. The bottom line is — you can prepare as much as you want, but when you get in the box, it’s just you and that pitcher.”
Boone isn’t here for an overhaul. He’s here to encourage. To simplify. One of his prevailing messages to players, he said, has been to “watch the game” — to put away the tablet, come up to the dugout railing and see how opposing pitchers are attacking other hitters. Boone has emphasized the importance of approaching each game with a plan, whatever that might be. He has occasionally blocked off the indoor batting cage, worried that hitters of this generation swing too often. And he has encouraged conversation.
“That’s what great offenses do,” Boone said. “They’re constantly interacting.”
There might not be a more interesting team to watch ahead of the trade deadline. Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young is not one to give up on a season, particularly with a team this talented. But one more rough patch might force him to, at least to an extent. Young would prefer to add, but it’s hard to envision a way to improve the lineup from outside.
He won’t find a better middle-infield combo than Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Or a better outfield than Evan Carter, Wyatt Langford and Adolis García. Or a better designated hitter than Joc Pederson, who could return from a hand fracture before the end of this month. Or a better catching tandem than Jonah Heim and Kyle Higashioka. Or a better crop of corner infielders than Josh Smith, Josh Jung and Jake Burger, though Burger returned to the injured list with a quad strain earlier this week.
Any offensive improvement will probably come internally, signs of which emerged recently. The Rangers got Carter back from the bereavement list on July 4 and Langford back from the IL on July 5, making their lineup as close to whole as it has been all year. Over the ensuing week, they scored 53 runs in seven games heading into the All-Star break. Maybe it was a sign of things to come. Or, if recent history is any indication, a short burst of false promise.
Below is a look at five numbers that define the Rangers’ surprising offensive downturn.
1. Semien and Seager’s combined OPS on June 22: .671
The Rangers’ rise began in late November 2021, just before the sport shut down in the leadup to an ugly labor fight, when Semien and Seager secured contracts totaling $500 million. Their deals came within days of each other, ensuring they’d share a middle infield for years to come. And when the Rangers won it all in 2023, it was Semien and Seager hitting back-to-back at the top of the lineup, setting the tone for an offense that overwhelmed teams in October.
Some things haven’t changed: Semien and Seager are still the driving forces of this offense. For most of this year, though, that hasn’t been a positive thing.
As late as June 22, with the Rangers 78 games into their season, Semien and Seager had combined for a .229/.312/.359 slash line. Their combined OPS, .671, sat 44 points below the league average.
Semien, traditionally a slow starter, finished the month of May with the second-lowest slugging percentage among qualified hitters and at times batted ninth. Seager made two separate trips to the IL because of the same right hamstring strain and eventually fell out of whack, batting .188 in June. If the Rangers are looking for good news, though, it’s that Semien and Seager finally got going in the leadup to the All-Star break. From June 23 to July 13 — with Seager and Semien settling into the No. 2 and No. 3 spots, respectively — they slashed .313/.418/.592.
“We all want to be on at the same time,” Semien said. “It’ll never happen like that, but if Corey and I are on, this team goes.”
2. Texas’ slash line against fastballs: .236/.312/.372
One of the Rangers’ coaches recently recalled some of the most iconic homers from the team’s championship run — García’s grand slam in the American League Championship Series, and Seager’s blasts against Houston’s Cristian Javier and Arizona’s Paul Sewald.
They all had one thing in common: turning on high fastballs and pulverizing them.
The Rangers were one of the best fastball-hitting teams in 2023. That has been far from the case since. The Rangers slashed just .233/.315/.379 against four-seam fastballs in 2024, worse than every team except the Chicago White Sox, who lost a record 121 games. This year, it isn’t much better.
The Rangers’ slash line against four-seamers was only .236/.312/.372 heading into the All-Star break, good for a .684 OPS that ranked 27th in the majors. Burger (.473 OPS), Heim (.500), Pederson (.620) and García (.660) were especially vulnerable. Against four-seamers that were elevated, no team had a higher swing-and-miss percentage than Texas (55.5%).
Being in position to hit the fastball has been one of the points of emphasis from the hitting coaches in recent weeks. It doesn’t mean every hitter will look fastball first — approaches are individualistic and often alter based on matchups — but it does underscore the importance of narrowing the focus. Opposing pitchers are too good these days. Hitters can’t account for everything. And the best offenses are able to take something away from an opposing pitching staff. The 2023 team took away the fastball as an attack weapon. But the Rangers, in the words of one staffer, have been “stuck in between” ever since — late on velocity and off balance against spin.
It’s a tough way to live.
3. Rangers’ chase rate with RISP: 32.2%
When asked about the biggest difference between the 2023 offense and the 2025 version, Rangers manager Bruce Bochy mentioned the approach in run-scoring opportunities. The team from two years ago, he said, was much better at situational hitting with runners in scoring position. This team seems to chase too much in those situations.
The numbers bear that out.
The Rangers’ chase percentage with runners in scoring position was 32.2% coming out of the All-Star break, fourth worst in the major leagues. Their strikeout percentage, 23.7%, was fifth worst. Their slash line, .230/.304/.357, was down there with some of the worst teams in the sport. The Rangers’ lineup has some strikeout in it — with Burger, Jung and García at the top of that list — but team officials believe it should be much better adept at driving in runs.
Not being able to has led to some dramatic highs and lows. The Rangers have scored eight or more runs 13 times, including two instances over a 72-hour stretch in which they hung 16 runs on the Minnesota Twins. But there have also been 25 games in which they have been held to one or zero runs, third most in the major leagues.
4. Carter’s and Jung’s wOBA ranks since 2023: 205th and 264th
Entering the second half, 380 players had accumulated at least 300 plate appearances since the start of the 2024 season. Among them, Carter ranked 205th with a .308 weighted on-base average. Jung, with a .295 wOBA, ranked 264th.
Jung looked like a budding star at third base in 2023, making the All-Star team and finishing fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting. Carter came up in September and surged throughout October. With those two and Langford, Texas’ draft pick at No. 4 earlier that summer, the Rangers had three young, controllable players they could surround with their long list of established stars. It seemed unfair, yet it hasn’t come close to panning out.
Carter struggled through the first two months of 2024, was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his back, couldn’t fully ramp back up, got shut down for good in August, didn’t look right the following spring training and started the 2025 season in Triple-A. Carter appeared in just 45 games in 2024. Jung played in only one more, after a wrist fracture held him out for most of the first four months.
Then came a stretch of 101 plate appearances this June during which Jung notched just 15 hits, 5 walks and 27 strikeouts. Eight of those strikeouts came over his last four games, when his chase rate jumped to 45.9% — 12 percentage points above his career average. A Rangers source described him as “defeated” and “lost.”
On the second day of July, Jung was optioned to Triple-A Round Rock.
5. Rangers’ wRC+ since 2023: 94
There might not be a better representation of the Rangers’ drop-off than weighted runs created plus, which attempts to quantify total offensive value by gathering every relevant statistic, assigning each its proper weight and synthesizing it all into one convenient, park- and league-adjusted metric. The league average is 100, with every tick above or below representing a percentage point better or worse than the rest of the sport at that time.
During the 2023 regular season, the Rangers put together 117 wRC+. In other words, their offense was 17% above league average. Only one team — the Atlanta Braves, another currently underperforming club — was better. From the start of the 2024 season to the start of the 2025 All-Star break, the Rangers compiled a 94 wRC+, putting them 6% below the league average. Only eight teams were worse.
Five every-day players from that 2023 team are still on the Rangers — not counting Carter, who didn’t come up until September — and all of them have seen their OPS drop by more than 100 points. Seager? 1.013 OPS in 2023, .856 OPS since. García? .836 in 2023, .681 since. Heim? .755 in 2023, .605 since. Semien? .826 in 2023, .693 since. Jung? .781 in 2023, .676 since.
For Young, it’s not just the individual performances but how they coalesce.
“What we had was just a really balanced approach and a collective mindset in terms of the way we were attacking the opposing pitcher,” Young, in his fifth season as the head of baseball operations, said of the 2023 offense. “We had other guys who could grind out at-bats. We had guys who could hit for average. We had guys who slugged. And I still think we have that in our lineup. It’s just, for whatever reason, a number of them have had bad years to start the season. When you have a couple guys having down years, you can survive. When you have a majority of them having down years, it’s magnified. And then guys start pressing and putting pressure on themselves, and it makes it even harder.”
Sports
Journalism rallies in $1M Haskell Invitational win
Published
16 hours agoon
July 19, 2025By
admin
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Associated Press
Jul 19, 2025, 06:59 PM ET
OCEANPORT, N.J. — Journalism launched a dramatic rally to win the $1 million Haskell Invitational on Saturday at Monmouth Park.
It was Journalism’s first race since the Triple Crown. He was the only colt to contest all three legs, winning the Preakness while finishing second to Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.
Heavily favored at 2-5 odds, Journalism broke poorly under jockey Umberto Rispoli and wound up trailing the early leaders. He kicked into gear rounding the final turn to find Gosger and Goal Oriented locked in a dogfight for the lead. It appeared one of them would be the winner until Journalism roared down the center of the track to win by a half-length.
“You feel like you’re on a diesel,” Rispoli said. “He’s motoring and motoring. You never know when he’s going to take off. To do what he did today again, it’s unbelievable.”
Gosger held on for second, a neck ahead of Goal Oriented.
The Haskell victory was Journalism’s sixth in nine starts for Southern California-based trainer Michael McCarthy, and earned the colt a berth in the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar on Nov. 1.
Journalism paid $2.80, $2.20 and $2.10.
Sports
Heavy rain helps Elliott to pole for Dover Cup race
Published
19 hours agoon
July 19, 2025By
admin
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Associated Press
Jul 19, 2025, 03:23 PM ET
DOVER, Del. — Chase Elliott took advantage of heavy rain at Dover Motor Speedway to earn the pole for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race.
Elliott and the rest of the field never got to turn a scheduled practice or qualifying lap on Saturday because of rain that pounded the concrete mile track. Dover is scheduled to hold its first July race since the track’s first one in 1969.
Elliott has two wins and 10 top-five finishes in 14 career races at Dover.
Chase Briscoe starts second, followed by Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick and William Byron. Shane van Gisbergen, last week’s winner at Sonoma Raceway, Michael McDowell, Joey Logano, Ty Gibbs and Kyle Busch complete the top 10.
Logano is set to become the youngest driver in NASCAR history with 600 career starts.
Logano will be 35 years, 1 month, 26 days old when he hits No. 600 on Sunday at Dover Motor Speedway. He will top seven-time NASCAR champion and Hall of Famer Richard Petty by six months.
The midseason tournament that pays $1 million to the winner pits Ty Dillon vs. John Hunter Nemechek and Reddick vs. Gibbs in the head-to-head challenge at Dover.
The winners face off next week at Indianapolis. Reddick is the betting favorite to win it all, according to Sportsbook.
All four drivers are winless this season.
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