A new kind of MLB mock draft: Our insiders make the picks for all 30 teams — with trades!
The 2025 MLB draft is just around the corner, with the first round set to take place on July 13 in Atlanta.
While most of our mock drafts leading up to draft day focus on who we believe teams will take, we decided to have some fun by asking our MLB experts to play GM and make the picks they believe all 30 teams should make in the first rounds of this year’s draft.
For this exercise, Kiley McDaniel made the picks for all NL East and AL East teams, David Schoenfield for the two Central divisions, and Jeff Passan for the West division teams. To add to the intrigue, we decided to allow our GMs to trade draft picks at any point in the process.
Who went off the board first? Which MLB stars were traded in our mock draft? And where did the GM trash talk heat up? Here’s how the first 40 picks of the 2025 MLB draft would play out if we were calling the shots.
Pick: Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Nationals GM McDaniel: There’s a tightly packed group at the top of this year’s class with no clear best prospect, so I offered Mariners GM Jeff Passan the No. 1 overall pick for the third and 35th pick … and he turned me down.
I’ll stick with the pick and take Anderson, who is considered the best combination of potential and proximity to the big leagues. His timeline to the big leagues fits the general timeline of the Nationals’ wave of talent coming up (Travis Sykora, Luke Dickerson, Jarlin Susana, Seaver King, Cade Cavalli), the group that just showed up in the big leagues (James Wood, Dylan Crews, Brady House, Daylen Lile) and core (MacKenzie Gore and C.J. Abrams) already starring in the majors. With some smart moves, this could be a competitive team in the next year or two.
Pick: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Angels GM Passan: The Angels love fast-moving college players, and while their past three first-round picks have been productive college, there are gaping holes in their starting rotation that need addressing. Doyle, whose high-velocity, high-spin fastball looked invisible to SEC hitters, could be the sort of player who rockets into Los Angeles’ rotation.
With a seeming Jo Adell breakout, Zach Neto looking like a star and Mike Trout healthy for now, there’s a path to contention for the Angels. And whether it’s Anderson, Doyle or the next guy to go, college lefty looks like the likeliest — and most pragmatic — route for the Angels. And whoever it winds up being, it would surprise nobody if he’s in the big leagues by August.
Pick: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Mariners GM Passan: With Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo two years from free agency, a minor league system loaded with hitters, and Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez locked up long term, a fast-moving arm makes sense for the Mariners. I considered Ethan Holliday and even Seth Hernandez with this pick, and while I wasn’t opposed to trading down, the Mariners need impact, not bulk. They get that in the 6-foot-1, 190-pound Arnold, whose slingshot delivery pumps 98 mph fastballs and a devastating slider that helped him strike out six times as many hitters as he walked for the Seminoles.
McDaniel’s draft analysis: As things stand, the three lefties going in the top three picks is the single most likely outcome at the top of the draft, so this is chalk.
Pick: Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS (OK)
Rockies GM Passan: A massive, power-hitting athlete named Holliday in a Rockies uniform is just right. And this isn’t just for the cute story of Ethan Holliday following in the footsteps of his father, Matt, who spent his first six seasons with the Rockies. Holliday is atop the draft board of a number of teams. He’s different than his older brother (and 2022 No. 1 pick), Jackson. Ethan is bigger (6-foot-4), heartier (210 pounds) and likelier to stay on the left side of the infield. Power is his carrying tool, and with the Rockies years away from contention, they can target upside that might be a little slower developing than the college talent still on the board.
GM McDaniel: As the Rays GM, I offered the 14th, 37th and 86th picks to move up to this spot to get one of the players in the top group. As Jays GM, I offered the eighth and 112th picks. I wasn’t trading up for a specific player, but this pick was open for bidding, and I was worried the players I wanted in each spot would run out by the seventh pick. Passan turned down both offers, and it worked out for Toronto, as you’ll see below.
Pick: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS)
Cardinals GM Schoenfield: The Cardinals haven’t drafted this high since taking J.D. Drew fifth in 1998 after he went unsigned the year before. That turned out pretty well, as Drew gave them five solid seasons (although not the superstar seasons predicted) and was then traded for Adam Wainwright.
The Cardinals usually prefer college players in the first round, but they did take high schoolers Jordan Walker in 2020 and Nolan Gorman in 2018 and chief baseball officer-in-waiting Chaim Bloom might have a different philosophy from John Mozeliak. Parker is projected to have an excellent hit tool, similar to JJ Wetherholt, last year’s first-round pick. Parker probably slides over to third, giving them a potential long-term infield of Wetherholt at second, Masyn Winn at shortstop and Parker at third.
McDaniel’s draft analysis: This is where the draft becomes unpredictable and the Cards have a number of reasonable options, so I’d expect bonus demands to heavily dictate the real outcome, which is something Dave couldn’t do here.
Pick: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Pirates GM Schoenfield: With the years already counting down on Paul Skenes’ period of team control, it probably behooves the Pirates to draft a college player who can move quickly. You never want to draft just for need, but the Pirates do need offense, and Arquette hit .354 with 19 home runs for the Beavers — although with the demise of the Pac-12, the Beavers played an independent schedule in which they didn’t necessarily face a lot of quality pitching. Arquette is a big 6-foot-5, 220-pound shortstop, but he’s athletic with 25-homer potential and could always slide over to third base. Either way, the Pirates need help at both positions.
Pick: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Marlins GM McDaniel: I was hoping to get Willits or Parker at this pick and because Arquette went sixth, I got my man here. This also happens to be what Miami is rumored to be looking to do at this pick. If Willits went sixth, I’d be in a tough spot with two picks coming up and my primary targets off the board, likely moving toward a pitcher or the next prep shortstop on the board.
Pick: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Blue Jays GM McDaniel: Got our guy! You could argue Hernandez should’ve gone a few picks higher than this and that he’s the last player in the top tier. There are one or two more players still available that some teams will have at the tail end of the top tier, and many teams in reality won’t take a prep righty in the top 10 picks. I believe the Jays are one of those teams, and I also think Hernandez might be the exception to that reasonable rule, so I made them get out of their own way to make the right pick here.
GM Passan: I offered Eugenio Suarez, Shelby Miller and the 25th pick in the draft to move up to this slot — where I was going to select Hernandez for the Diamondbacks. Kiley said no because he is soft.
GM McDaniel: Wah wah wah.
Pick: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Reds GM Schoenfield: The Reds tried to make the same deal the Blue Jays were offered, even throwing in Connor Phillips to sweeten the offer, but the Diamondbacks had their eyes set on Hernandez. Suarez would have been a perfect addition to an intriguing Reds team that needs to supplement its rotation with an impact bat at the trade deadline.
In the meantime, the Reds pass on one of the good defensive shortstops — not exactly a need at the moment — and given their success in pitcher development, take Witherspoon on the heels of selecting Chase Burns last year. Witherspoon had 2.65 ERA for the Sooners with 124 K’s in 95 innings, topping out at 99 mph with a deep arsenal of pitches.
McDaniel’s draft analysis: Like with the St. Louis pick at No. 5, this is another spot where the draft really opens up and about a dozen different prospects that weren’t really options at No. 7 or No. 8 now come into play. I’d expect signing bonus demands to be a factor here, as well, if this scenario plays out come draft day.
Pick: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA)
White Sox GM Schoenfield: Colson Montgomery, once the shortstop of the future for the White Sox, has stalled out in Triple-A (hitting .188), and Carlson — Seth Hernandez’s high school teammate — presents the best mix of defense and offensive potential. He has an 80 arm and plus range at shortstop with plus bat speed and above-average raw power. He does turn 19 right after draft day, which is a negative for some teams, but, hey, so did Bobby Witt Jr. when the Royals drafted him.
Trade alert!
11. Tampa Bay Rays, via trade with Athletics
Pick: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)
Rays GM McDaniel: I gave the A’s the No. 86 pick to move up from No. 14 to this spot. The trade allows me to add a player who wasn’t likely to be available at No. 14 and is on the tail end of the 45-plus FV tier before we descend into the mush of similar college players in the 45 FV tier.
Hall is a 70-grade runner who will stick at short and has a good feel to lift the ball, akin to Trea Turner, Anthony Volpe or Jett Williams. The 86th pick is likely a somewhat generic lottery ticket or role player, a small price to pay to get a notably better player. I’d try to trade down if I didn’t have a shot to land a 45-plus FV player for the Rays. Plus, the Rays have extra picks, so using one to land a better first pick is a luxury I’ll take advantage of here.
Given the setup of this exercise, I’m not looking at the draft pool amount because I don’t get to move money around and make the later picks. Instead, I’m simply looking at picks and players and their values, similar to the pro football and basketball drafts. This is basically the same thing as offering an over-slot amount to Hall to get to the No. 14 pick, then going under slot at 86. I don’t think that would work in real life, so this exercise made for a better outcome.
GM Passan: I got an extra $250,000 in bonus-pool money and am hopeful to wind up with the same player I’d have taken at 11. We’ll see.
Pick: Ike Irish, RF/C, Auburn
Rangers GM Passan: The Rangers need fast-moving bats, and Irish is coming off the best offensive season of any draft-eligible college hitter. Whether he winds up at catcher, right field or first base remains up in the air, but for a Rangers team without a clear long-term solution at any of the three positions, he fits.
Pick: Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona
Giants GM Passan: Not only does Summerhill look the part at 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds, his offensive game matches it: .343/.459/.556 with 22 extra-base hits in 207 plate appearances for the Wildcats. While he can man center field, Summerhill profiles better in right, where the Giants need a long-term solution with Mike Yastrzemski’s impending free agency. Summerhill does not have a huge ceiling. He’s just a good all-around ballplayer for a team striving to be solid top to bottom.
Trade alert!
14. Athletics, via trade with Rays
Pick: Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
Athletics GM Passan: I did indeed wind up with the same player I’d have taken at No. 11. Wood, author of the first College World Series no-hitter in more than half a century, has been in the upper 90s with his fastball and has leapt up draft boards in recent weeks.
The A’s could use some near-big-league-ready starting pitching, and while a shoulder impingement that sidelined Wood this season is cause for some alarm, he has the rare combination of stuff and control that can get a player to the big leagues tout de suite.
Pick: Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (CA)
Red Sox GM McDaniel: I was down to Wood and Fien as top options after I took Hall for the Rays, so holding my breath and not trading up ended up working here. I’m the high guy on Fien in predraft rankings, and the Red Sox are rumored to be the high team on him in real life, so this is a pretty likely outcome. He was a top-10 prospect coming out of the summer before he had a mediocre spring. But he still has the same tools and had a strong showing at the draft combine, affirming the upside is still there. This is the part of the draft I referred to as the “mush” of similar, 45 FV grade college players, and Fien is one of a couple of prep prospects who fit in there.
Pick: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
Twins GM Schoenfield: The Twins have Carlos Correa signed through at least 2028 and have Brooks Lee in the majors, and their top two picks last year were shortstops Kaelen Culpepper and Kyle DeBarge, but Houston provides too much potential value to pass up here. He might be the best defensive shortstop in the draft, at least at the collegiate level, and had an OPS over 1.000 for Wake Forest, hitting .354 with 15 home runs and as many walks as strikeouts.
Trade alert!
Pick: Gavin Kilen, SS/2B, Tennessee
Guardians (and Cubs) GM Schoenfield: Trade! The Cubs deal this pick, outfielder Kevin Alcantara and reliever Luke Little to Cleveland for closer Emmanuel Clase and Cleveland’s third-round pick.
The Cubs have one of the best offenses in the majors but need pitching depth and stability in the closer role. Clase is signed through 2028 on a team-friendly deal, so he won’t crush the payroll as the Cubs look to re-sign Kyle Tucker in the offseason/
The Guardians deal from their strength to add an MLB-ready outfielder in Alcantara and select a very Guardians-like prospect in Kilen, who hit .357 for the Vols with 15 home runs with excellent contact skills as a left-handed hitter. His arm likely pushes him to second in pro ball.
Pick: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UCSB
D-backs GM Passan: Before the beginning of the college season, Bremner and Arnold were the favorites for the No. 1 pick. Bremner shook off a tough start to the season and wound up with 111 strikeouts, 19 walks and 5 home runs allowed in 77⅔ innings. His changeup might be the best in the whole draft. This is tremendous value for a team with a starting rotation that could lose Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly this winter and is still reeling from Corbin Burnes’ season-ending Tommy John surgery.
McDaniel’s draft analysis: This is about as high as Bremner would go in real life, but I already think he’ll be a strong value for where he’s picked, likely in the 20s or early 30s, a year from now.
Pick: Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Orioles GM McDaniel: The Golden Spikes Award winner somehow lasts until No. 19 and also happens to fit the Orioles’ style of taking up-the-middle defenders with big power. There’s a shot Aloy slides in real life, maybe even this far, because of the swing-and-miss concerns — both in zone and chasing out of the zone — but the compelling combination of 25-homer upside from a shortstop with SEC track record is too enticing to let him fall into the 20s.
Pick: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (Wash.)
Brewers GM Schoenfield: The Brewers have shown the propensity to develop pitching, and recent first-round picks have focused on speedy, defense-first players such as Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and outfielder Braylon Payne (last year’s first-round selection). In Neyens, they get a different type of a prospect: a left-handed-hitting third baseman with perhaps as much raw power as any player in this draft.
McDaniel’s draft analysis: Now that the run of college hitters is almost over, this is the part of the draft when team prospect-type preference is very relevant. There are a few college bats with extreme profiles left (Laviolette, Bodine) not every team would take. There are a bunch of prep position players of all different types, with Neyens being the most extreme (poor contact rates over the summer, 70- or 80-grade power) so thus not a fit for every team. I would guess each team around here in real life will have a small group of two or three players to choose from that varies widely from what the next few teams will be considering.
Pick: Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M
Astros GM Passan: This is the point in the draft where the good teams happily use their first-round pick as a lottery ticket on someone whose stock has fallen. And nobody has cratered quite like LaViolette, who stands 6-foot-6 and 230 pounds and has spent the past two seasons in center field for the Aggies. LaViolette has huge raw power and a very good eye, but his .258 batting average alarmed enough teams to allow him to drop here, where the Astros — whose GM, Dana Brown, was a longtime scouting director who loved tooled-up prospects — gladly snap him up.
McDaniel’s draft analysis: This is quite realistic, both that Laviolette is the college hitter from this tier who slides and that Houston would be the team that takes him because of the Astros’ style and him being a semi-local player.
Pick: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (GA)
Braves GM McDaniel: Pierce is rumored to land as high as the late top 10 but also might last until the 20s, so the hometown Braves get him after considering trading up a spot to land Laviolette.
Pierce can hit, run, defend and throw but isn’t showing a ton of power right now and will need some tweaks to his swing. That said, he has had some big showing this spring against 90-plus mph velocity, so scouts think there’s plenty of ability to turn into an everyday shortstop, maybe eventually like another former Brave and Atlanta-area prep standout, Dansby Swanson.
Pick: Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest
Royals GM Schoenfield: Don’t draft for need? That is the saying, but boy do the Royals need some help in the outfield. Conrad transferred from Marist to Wake Forest for 2025 after finishing second in the Cape Cod League in batting average last summer. He was off to a big start, hitting .372/.495/.744 before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery after 21 games. His hitting is more gap to gap, but that will work in Kauffman Stadium. Scouts would have liked to see him face better pitching in the ACC before he got hurt, but there is a projectable hit tool here.
Pick: Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana
Tigers GM Schoenfield: The Tigers have terrific organizational depth at the big league and minor league levels, so this pick could go in any direction. Taylor was a three-year standout for the Hoosiers, hitting .374/.494/.706 with 18 home runs and drawing 52 walks against just 30 strikeouts this season. He’s limited to corner outfield but possesses bat speed and strength and also performed well in the Cape last summer.
McDaniel’s draft analysis: I think Dave might be straying from the prep players who likely would go at these two picks in real life, but that just means the door is open for Jeff and I to scoop them up.
Pick: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX)
Padres GM Passan: Whether Cunningham sticks at shortstop or winds up at second base, he has one of the best hit tools in the draft, and San Diego, as much as any team, loves players with great hit tools, from Luis Arraez to Jackson Merrill. Cunningham can run, too, and his well-rounded offensive profile makes up for a lack of physicality (5-foot-9, 170 pounds). His age, 19 on draft day, hurts him in teams’ models, but that’s also how a player of this caliber drops to the bottom of the first round.
Pick: Josh Hammond, 3B, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC)
Phillies GM McDaniel: And scoop, we did. There’s a number of similarly valued players here and, in real life, the signability would definitely come into play because saving 10% on slot to help set up my next pick would help me make this decision. Hammond, like Pierce above, could go about 10 picks higher than this and has a clear selling point: 70-grade power projection, a clear infield fit, upper-90s heat on the mound, sterling summer performance. He looks like Josh Donaldson, and the two-way narrative is similar to Austin Riley’s profile in high school. This is a solid value and also fits the Phillies’ drafting history.
27. Cleveland Guardians
Pick: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina
Guardians GM Schoenfield: A draft-eligible sophomore, Stevenson has power and definite catching tools, including a plus arm, but had a somewhat disappointing season for the Tar Heels, hitting .254 albeit with 19 home runs. His 24% strikeout rate is a concern, but a lefty-hitting catcher with power could be a nice roll of the dice late in the first round.
28. Kansas City Royals
Pick: Sean Gamble, 2B/CF, IMG Academy (FL)
Royals GM Schoenfield: The Royals have shown no systematic preference in their recent draft history, with their seven first-round picks going back to Bobby Witt Jr. in 2019 including two high school position players, a high school pitcher, three college position players and one college pitcher. We gave them a college position player with pick No. 23, so let’s go high school with Gamble. An Iowa native who played four years at IMG, Gamble has excellent speed and a nice lefty stroke. Some scouts see him as an above-average second baseman, but he also played some center field, where his speed and arm could translate to a plus defender.
29. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Slater de Brun, CF, Summit High (OR)
D-backs GM Passan: Real original. Give the short guy to the Diamondbacks. Guilty as charged. But in the case of de Brun — like Corbin Carroll in 2019 and Slade Caldwell last year — Arizona isn’t afraid to spend high draft picks on undersized players. Listed at 5-foot-10, de Brun is a speedster who can also do damage in the batter’s box. He’s probably not going to be a superstar, but the same sort of false ceiling was put on another prep product from the Pacific Northwest, and Carroll is doing just fine, thank you very much.
McDaniel’s draft analysis: De Brun/Arizona is one of the most common connections and this particular pick, rather than their earlier pick, might be the most likely landing spot. Every scout likes de Brun, but some teams emphasize this particular skill set more than others. Arizona might be the top team in that group.
30. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
Orioles GM McDaniel: Bodine and Luke Stevenson are seen as the two potential first-round catchers, with most scouts thinking Bodine goes ahead of Stevenson by about a dozen picks or so. With Stevenson going three picks earlier, grabbing Bodine here is nice value.
He stands out for his contact skills and framing, though scouts worry he isn’t a great traditional defender and doesn’t have standout power. Don’t worry about Adley Rutschman; Bodine will take a few years, and who knows what the big league team will look like then. Bet you didn’t think we’d be bad this year!
31. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (GA)
Orioles GM McDaniel: Kilby had a great combine workout and is in play at a number of spots in the late 20s and early 30s, including Baltimore at these picks. He’s probably not a long-term shortstop, but he is already growing into the power many projected to come a year ago, nobody questions his hit tool, and he’s one of the better athletic testers in the class. He’s a stealthy pick to click of mine (as a draft analyst), landing on a top-100 list within 12 months of this draft.
32. Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (OR)
Brewers GM Schoenfield: Let’s just say Schoolcraft is a definite first-round name. Something must be in the water in Oregon — certainly, the success of the Oregon State and now Oregon programs has helped generate youth interest in the state — and Schoolcraft gives the state another potential first-rounder. He is 6-foot-8 and up to his 97 mph with his fastball, and he already does a nice job repeating his delivery. He’s also a two-way recruit to Tennessee as a first baseman, but it’s his arm that would get him drafted this high.
33. Boston Red Sox
Pick: Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee
Red Sox GM McDaniel: Fischer, to some teams, is just Ike Irish (who went No. 12) with less defensive value, as Irish is a catcher or right fielder and Fischer can play third but is likely a first baseman long term.
Both are advanced power-and-patience types who bat left-handed and stood out in the SEC for multiple seasons, though Irish is a slightly better pure hitter. Fischer is getting buzz all over the 20s and also likely won’t last this long on draft day.
34. Detroit Tigers
Pick: Zach Root, LHP, Arkansas
Tigers GM Schoenfield: A year after Arkansas left-hander Hagen Smith went No. 5 to the White Sox, Root is another Razorbacks lefty who could go reasonably high. His curveball and changeup are his best pitches and while he was nowhere near as dominant as Smith was last season, Root did strike out 126 in 99 innings despite a fastball that didn’t generate a ton of swing and miss.
Trade alert!
35. Arizona Diamondbacks, via trade with Mariners
Pick: Cam Cannarella, OF, Clemson
D-backs (and Mariners) GM Passan: Finally, a landing spot for Eugenio Suarez — and all it took was a trade with … GM Passan.
The Mariners need a power bat and full-time third baseman, and they get him in exchange for the No. 35 pick. Cannarella entered the season a potential top-10 pick, but between a labrum injury in his right shoulder and a lack of home runs, he dipped toward a comp-round selection. Cool by Arizona. Cannarella is a no-doubt center fielder with immense range and as Druw Jones continues to struggle with the bat, Cannarella can be the glove-first option of Arizona’s future.
36. Minnesota Twins
Pick: Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama
Twins GM Schoenfield: The Twins have chased velocity with their recent pitching selections, including Charlee Soto in 2023 and the since-traded Chase Petty in 2021. They were both high schoolers, but Quick fits the bill as a 6-foot-6 righty who sits 95-97 mph and tops out at 99, with three other potential plus pitches.
He had Tommy John surgery after one appearance in 2024 but returned quickly to throw 62 innings for the Crimson Tide, posting a 3.92 ERA with 70 strikeouts. He has pitched only 87 collegiate innings and will need to clean up some mechanics, but the stuff suggests potential as a No. 2 starter.
37. Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Jaden Fauske, OF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL)
Rays GM McDaniel: Fauske offers a college-type profile (above-average hit, strong approach, plus power, long track record, limited defensive value) with the risk/reward of a high schooler. He has played catcher a bit in the past and will give average to above-average run times on good days, but you’re drafting a hitter who likely plays corner outfield long term.
There’s some interest in him in the 20s, and he should go around this pick, with the Rays being one of the teams on him the most. Prep righty Aaron Watson and prep shortstop Tate Southisene were the two other players in contention for these last few picks who ultimately didn’t get taken but likely will not last until the second round in real life.
Pick: Quentin Young, 3B, Oaks Christian HS (CA)
Mets GM McDaniel: I didn’t need the combine to confirm that Young (related to Dmitri and Delmon) had 80-grade power potential, but he did hit a ball 115.4 mph plus five more harder than 110 mph and four farther than 420 feet. His summer contact rate was awful because of big, loud hitting mechanics, but the year before that he had a shorter swing, and he’s the kind of athlete and hitter with are so outrageous that you want to believe he can just make any adjustment. That was also the argument for Jac Caglianone at this time last year. On top of that, Young plays a decent shortstop and can slide over to third long term. There’s a shot, maybe 1-in-5, that he turns tools supernova on the level of Elly De La Cruz, Oneil Cruz, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Bobby Witt Jr. who figures it out to become a standout big leaguer. There’s also a chance he doesn’t get out of Single-A, but at this juncture of the draft, that’s a gamble I’ll take — and it sounds like a few other teams would as well.
Pick: Michael Oliveto, C, Hauppauge HS (NY)
Yankees GM McDaniel: Oliveto isn’t the next player on my big board, but I wanted to finish my picks with some vibes. Oliveto is a local pick who played high school ball on Long Island and a late riser. Nobody in baseball knew his name until a standout event last fall, but he ended up choosing Yale over some blue-blood programs.
He didn’t face much top-end competition this spring, but a handful of teams saw a pretty swing with 65-grade power, which Oliveto put on display at the combine. He’s now in the mix to go around this pick, but I’m guessing he’ll go in the second round, about 15 or so picks later.
Like Ike Irish, he’s on the catcher/right fielder spectrum, but Oliveto requires some faith because of his few reps against pro-level arms, though everything suggests he can do it. Who was the last lefty-hitting high schooler from a cold weather state with that sort of profile who went around here in the draft? Jackson Merrill.
Pick: Jack Bauer, SP, Lincoln-Way East HS (IL)
Dodgers GM Passan: Los Angeles never shies away from projects, and Bauer is the draft’s most high-variance arm. The left-hander throws up to 103 mph, and as much as teams believe they can teach velocity, nobody can teach 103. If Bauer can figure out how to harness his fastball and cleans up some of his control issues, the Dodgers have a true No. 1 starter in the making.
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Bradford Doolittle
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Bradford Doolittle
ESPN Staff Writer
- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
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David Schoenfield
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David Schoenfield
ESPN Senior Writer
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
It’s hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.
Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade, we’ll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.
ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so follow along here — this story will continue to be updated. Check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training.
Related links: Tracker | Top 50 free agents
The deal: Five years
Grade: A-
If there was an award for free agent prediction most to likely come true, Josh Naylor returning to the Seattle Mariners would have been the front-runner, so it’s hardly a surprise that this is the first significant signing of the offseason (pending a physical). As soon as the Mariners’ season ended with that heartbreaking loss in Game 7 of the ALCS, the front office made it clear that re-signing Naylor was its top priority. Such public vocalizations at that level are rare — and the Mariners backed them up with a five-year contract.
It’s easy to understand why they wanted Naylor back. The Mariners have been searching for a long-term solution at first base for, oh, going on 20 years — really, since they traded John Olerud in 2004. Ty France gave them a couple solid seasons in 2021 and 2022, but since 2005 only the Pirates’ first basemen have produced a lower OPS than Seattle’s.
Naylor, meanwhile, came over at the trade deadline from Arizona and provided a huge spark down the stretch, hitting .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 54 games, good for 2.2 WAR. Including his time with the Diamondbacks, he finished at .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs in 2025. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, it’s not easy to attract free agent hitters to Seattle, but Naylor spoke about how he loves hitting there. The numbers back that up: In 43 career games at T-Mobile, he has hit .304 and slugged .534.
Importantly for a Seattle lineup that is heavy on strikeouts, Naylor is a high-contact hitter in the middle of the order; he finished with the 17th-best strikeout rate among qualified hitters in 2025. Naylor’s entire game is a bit of an oxymoron. He ranks in just the seventh percentile in chase rate but still had a nearly league-average walk rate (46th percentile) with an excellent contact rate. He can’t run (third percentile!) but stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, including 19-for-19 after joining the Mariners. He doesn’t look like he’d be quick in the field, but his Statcast defensive metrics have been above average in each of the past four seasons.
He’s not a star — 3.1 WAR in 2025 was a career high — but he’s a safe, predictable player to bank on for the next few years. This deal runs through his age-33 season, so maybe there’s some risk at the end of the contract, but for a team with World Series aspirations in 2026, the Mariners needed to bring Naylor back. The front office will be happy with this signing and so will Mariners fans. — David Schoenfield
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Bill Connelly
In Week 12, college football said, “You’re going to miss me when I’m gone.” The results were consequential enough: No. 4 Alabama went down at home in the funkiest fashion imaginable, No. 5 Georgia pulled off a statement win and plenty of aspiring College Football Playoff contenders — No. 3 Texas A&M, No. 16 Georgia Tech, No. 17 USC, No. 18 Michigan — narrowly avoided disaster.
But really, this was one of the best college football weekends of the season because the college football itself was just so damn good. Tuesday night’s MACtion was incredible. We got beautiful ACC nonsense Friday night. The noon and 3:30 p.m. ET shifts gave us a number of heart-stoppers, and while Saturday evening wasn’t particularly dramatic, we still got a rush-off between Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy (300 yards and 3 touchdowns against Mississippi State) and Ole Miss’ Kewan Lacy (224 yards and 3 touchdowns against Florida) and an angry, late statement of intent from BYU. Meanwhile, the smaller-school ranks gave us countless overtimes, comebacks and surprises, plus some last-minute playoff berths.
In this column, we have a longstanding policy: If a week is just so good that you want to relive it game by game, then we relive it game by game! With stops to explore different playoff and conference title odds, here are my 25 favorite games from one of my favorite weekends of the season.
My 25 favorite games of Week 12
1. No. 3 Texas A&M 31, South Carolina 30. We’ll start with the obvious one. At halftime, after probably the worst half of Marcel Reed‘s life, I looked up what the worst-ever home loss was for a top-three team against an unranked opponent. Best I could tell, it was a tie between No. 2 Iowa’s 24-7 loss to Purdue in 2021 and No. 2 Auburn’s 27-10 loss to Arkansas in 2006. Since the score was 30-3 South Carolina at the time, this felt awfully relevant.
Reed had misfired nonstop in the first half, going a shocking 6-for-19 with 2 interceptions and 2 sacks. Almost anytime he delivered a semi-accurate ball, his receivers dropped it. A&M was unbeaten and obviously had a mulligan to give in this one, but it was fair to wonder if the Aggies might drop quite a bit in the playoff rankings, enough to make fans nervous heading into their season ender against Texas.
Some relevant second-half stats:
Total yards: A&M 371 (9.8 per play), SC 76 (2.9)
Success rate*: A&M 65.8%, South Carolina 23.1%
Marcel Reed: 16-for-20 for 298 yards and three touchdowns
SC’s LaNorris Sellers: 6-for-11 for 63 yards and four sacks (net yards in 15 pass attempts: 39)
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)
A&M won the second half 28-0, and the Aggies only made things interesting after a fumbled, goal-to-go trick play kept them from going up 38-30 late. South Carolina had a chance to drive for a shocking game-winning field goal, but that would have required Sellers to stay upright. He was sacked twice, and the Gamecocks turned the ball over on downs.
I’ve been referencing Playoff Tiers quite a bit lately — it’s my way of separating teams into groups with similar playoff odds (combining the Allstate Playoff Predictor’s odds with odds derived from SP+). Now that A&M has avoided disaster, Tier 1 is pretty much set.
CFP Tier 1 odds: Ohio State 99.9%, Indiana 99.9%, Texas A&M 99.9%.
While we’re at it, the five teams in Tier 2 are also in excellent shape.
CFP Tier 2 odds: Texas Tech 94.9%, Georgia 94.8%, Ole Miss 94.0%, Oregon 88.4%, Notre Dame 78.2%
There’s still some maneuverability here but not much. And honestly, considering Notre Dame is a projected favorite of at least 31 points in each of its final two games (Syracuse and Stanford), I don’t see how the Irish are under about 95%.
2. Kent State 42, Akron 35 (OT). Last Tuesday was my favorite day of MACtion in quite some time. We’ll get to Western Michigan’s win over Ohio below, but Kent State and Akron played an all-timer for the Wagon Wheel.
Kent State took a 35-17 lead early in the fourth quarter, thanks in part to four Dru DeShields touchdown passes — including a 89-yarder to big-play man Da’Realyst Clark (who also has two kick return scores and a touchdown pass) — but you don’t give up the Wagon Wheel without a fight! Akron scored, recovered a perfect, chip-shot onside kick, kicked a field goal, recovered a fumble and tied the game on a 13-yard Ben Finley-to-Israel Polk touchdown and 2-point conversion.
And then, after all that, DeShields found Ardell Banks for a 25-yard touchdown on the first play of overtime, Akron went four-and-out, and the Golden Flashes won anyway.
The win somehow kept bowl hopes alive for Kent State, which is an incredible thing to say considering the Golden Flashes went 0-12 last season with one of the worst FBS teams of the 21st century, then fired head coach Kenni Burns in mid-April. They have bounced back in a way that should encourage UMass fans, if nothing else — the Minutemen are on pace for an 0-12 record with nearly the same awful SP+ rating that Kent State had last season. At 4-6, the Golden Flashes probably won’t win their final two games to get to six wins (SP+ gives them a 7.8% chance of beating both Central Michigan and Northern Illinois), but SP+ didn’t think they would win four games either! Damn the computers! Go Flashes!
3. FCS: No. 11 Harvard 45, Penn 43. Harvard had to take this one twice. The unbeaten Crimson, darlings of the SP+ ratings, trailed 27-14 late in the first half but used a 21-0 run to take control and led 42-33 with less than four minutes remaining. But Penn charged back, scoring a short touchdown, forcing a three-and-out and taking a shocking lead on a 30-yard field goal with just 22 seconds left. That was just enough time for Jaden Craig (390 yards and 3 TDs on the day) to complete three passes and for Kieran Corr to knock in a 53-yard field goal at the buzzer.
ABSOLUTE CINEMA
KIERAN CORR DRILLS A 52-YARD FIELD GOAL TO WIN IT
📺 https://t.co/8oOFxoFh06
📻https://t.co/hEVv11DZR8
📊https://t.co/OtJ5xL5LM1#GoCrimson pic.twitter.com/J78Rwq7yKL— Harvard Football (@HarvardFootball) November 15, 2025
Harvard has now clinched a share of the Ivy League title, and while their SP+ rating fell a bit, the Crimson are still as proven as anyone in the non-North Dakota State category.
Current FCS SP+ top 10
1. North Dakota State (11-0): 34.7
2. Tarleton State (10-1): 27.0
3. Harvard (9-0): 25.8
4. Lehigh (11-0): 24.7
5. Montana State (9-2): 24.2
6. Montana (11-0): 22.3
7. North Dakota (7-4): 20.8
8. Tennessee Tech (10-1): 20.1
9. Stephen F. Austin (9-2): 20.0
10. Mercer (9-1): 20.0
There’s a 3.5-point drop-off to No. 11 Rhode Island, but at least nine teams will be able to talk themselves into a potential national title game run, at least if they don’t land on NDSU’s side of the 24-team bracket. And even with its defense struggling Saturday, Harvard is among those contenders.
4. No. 11 Oklahoma 23, No. 4 Alabama 21. South Carolina over A&M would have been a massive upset. This one was still pretty big, though. It was familiar, too.
One of my go-to measures is what I call Postgame Win Expectancy (PGWE). It takes a look at the predictive stats a game produces — the stuff that eventually feeds into SP+ — tosses them into the air and says, “With these stats, Team A could have expected to win this game X% of the time.” By PGWE, Alabama’s loss to Vanderbilt last season was the least likely defeat of the season.
Against the Commodores, Bama had a comfortable success rate advantage (55.6% to 42.7%) with bigger big plays (yards per play: Bama 8.8, Vandy 5.6), fewer negative plays, more goal-to-go situations, you name it. Vandy won with perfectly timed bursts and turnovers that included a perfectly deflected pick-six into the arms of Randon Fontenette. Based on the game’s stats, Bama would have won 98.5% of the time. But with a 1.5% chance, the Commodores won. Combined with a late egg-laying at Oklahoma, it contributed to the Tide falling short of the CFP.
Against Oklahoma on Saturday, Bama produced a massive success rate advantage (46.7% to 27.5%) with fewer negative plays and, despite a massive field position disadvantage, more goal-to-go situations and the same number of red zone trips. The Tide’s PGWE against the Sooners: 95.2%. OU was going to need defensive heroics (such as an 87-yard Eli Bowen pick-six) and special teams explosions (such as a 42-yard Isaac Sategna III punt return and a tipped field goal before halftime) to win this one. Guess what they got?
Thanks to an earlier run of ranked wins, the two-loss Tide are still comfortable in this year’s playoff hunt – they’ll probably have to suffer an Iron Bowl defeat to an interim-coached Auburn team to fall out of contention (and nothing wild and unexpected has ever happened in the Iron Bowl before). But with the loss, they fall from Tier 2 to Tier 3 in my playoff tiers. In addition to the top two ACC contenders and one-loss BYU, they’re joined in Tier 3 by the team that just beat them.
CFP Tier 3 odds: Alabama 58.6%, BYU 50.2%, Oklahoma 41.7%, Virginia 41.7%, Georgia Tech 36.6%
Combined with Georgia’s comfortable win over Texas, Bama’s SEC title odds took a bit of a hit too.
SEC title odds, per SP+: Georgia 33.0%, Texas A&M 31.5%, Alabama 30.0%, Ole Miss 5.4%
I’m guessing Bama fans have seen their team win enough SEC titles through the years to get a little spoiled – they’re probably more interested in CFP odds. Still, this remains an interesting race.
5. Division II: Lenoir-Rhyne 48, Catawba 46. On a beautiful, 67-degree fall day in Hickory, North Carolina, 4,987 fans saw the home team blow an enormous lead and win anyway. Lenoir-Rhyne went up 42-12 with 4:29 left in the third quarter, then watched Catawba unleash a 34-0 run over the following 18 minutes. Amari McArthur’s 87-yard catch and run (!) made it 46-42 Catawba with 1:14 left, but Khamoni Robinson completed four passes, then charged 13 yards into the end zone with six seconds remaining.
𝙈𝙤𝙣𝙚𝙮 𝙘𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙚𝙙 𝙜𝙖𝙢𝙚💰
🐻🏈#GOBEARS | #BetweenTheBricks | #W1N pic.twitter.com/pyn3nE1dRv
— Lenoir-Rhyne Football (@LRBearsFootball) November 15, 2025
6. No. 16 Georgia Tech 36, Boston College 34. After last week’s chaos, Georgia Tech and Virginia entered Week 12 atop the ACC hierarchy. Virginia played maybe its best game of the year in a surprisingly easy 34-17 win over Duke in Durham, but Tech thought long and hard about going ker-splat in this one.
BC, which played good ball in losses to Louisville and Notre Dame before face-planting last week against SMU, brought its A-game back in this one. Despite yet another ridiculous day from Tech’s Haynes King — 371 passing yards, 61 non-sack rushing yards — the Yellow Jackets found themselves trailing 28-17 heading into the fourth quarter. Jordan Allen‘s 54-yard score gave Tech the lead, but Turbo Richard responded with a 43-yard burst to make it 34-33 Eagles. BC missed the 2-point conversion, however, and that loomed large when King drove the Jackets 68 yards in four minutes and set up Aidan Birr’s chip-shot field goal for the win.
Virginia and Georgia Tech boast the best title odds at the moment, but both still have work to do.
ACC title odds, per SP+: Virginia 41.3%, Georgia Tech 27.1%, SMU 17.2%, Miami 6.1%, Pitt 5.2%, Duke 3.0%
Virginia, 6-1 in conference play, can clinch a spot in the ACC championship game with a rivalry win over Virginia Tech in two weeks (projected win probability, per SP+: 88%), while 6-1 Tech has a trickier game against Pitt next week (55%). Pitt, 5-1, likely has to beat both Georgia Tech and Miami (15%) to have a shot, and SMU, 5-1 without playing either Virginia or GT, has to beat Louisville and Cal (44%) to remain in the mix. Miami lurks at 4-2 — the Hurricanes don’t have a great shot of sneaking in, but they’ll be the favorites if they get to Charlotte.
7. Division III: Merchant Marine 39, Coast Guard 38. “College GameDay” at Pitt was pretty fun, but if I were in charge of locations — and it’s probably good that I’m not! — I would have sent Rece and the guys to … Fenway Park. That’s where the 8,966 in attendance for the Secretaries’ Cup saw maybe the most back-and-forth game of the weekend. Neither team led by more than five in the second half, and after Harrison Hensley gave Coast Guard the lead with 6:52 remaining, Merchant Marine quarterback Bubba Mustain scored from 7 yards out with just 20 seconds left to give the Mariners the win.
Mustain on the day: 46 carries for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 6-for-8 passing for 150 yards and another 2 scores. Goodness! Give him an honorary 10 points in my Heisman of the Week section below.
8. No. 18 Michigan 24, Northwestern 22. This one changed in a blink. Jordan Marshall scored with 41 seconds left in the third quarter to give Michigan a 21-9 lead, and Northwestern’s offense, which gained 181 yards in three quarters, didn’t seem capable of a comeback. But Preston Stone capped a 75-yard drive with a short touchdown, and Braden Turner returned an interception to Michigan’s 6. Caleb Komolafe gave the Wildcats a sudden lead, and Michigan turned the ball over on its next two possessions as well. But the Wolverines got one last shot and took advantage. Bryce Underwood completed a third-down pass to Andrew Marsh, then ran for another first down, and Dominic Zvada‘s 31-yard field goal at the buzzer saved the day.
Michigan’s playoff odds aren’t great because the Wolverines will almost certainly need to beat top-ranked Ohio State again to get there — as if that could ever happen — but they’re still alive, and they’re still part of …
CFP Tier 4 odds: Utah 29.9%, USC 17.8%, Miami 15.5%, Vanderbilt 13.8%, SMU 10.0%, Michigan 7.6%. (Technically Pitt still has a chance at 3.9% too.)
At most, only one team will likely get in from this tier, and with only games against Kansas State and Kansas remaining (odds of winning both, per SP+: 68%), Utah is in solid shape even (or especially?) if the Utes miss the Big 12 championship game. But USC, Miami and Michigan all remain in the hunt, and both the Trojans and Wolverines had to pull off comebacks Saturday.
9. Division II: Tiffin 23, No. 8 Findlay 21. It wasn’t the most prolific game of the day, but Tiffin and Findlay managed to pack in eight lead changes, including five in the second half and two in the last minute. Findlay appeared to have kept its unbeaten record intact with a Jayden Farmer touchdown with 53 seconds remaining but despite getting pinned at its 6-yard line after a penalty on the ensuing kickoff, Tiffin drove 94 yards in nine plays, and on the final play of the game Alex Johnson found Jaedyn McKinstry for a 13-yard, game-winning score.
DRAGONS WIN ON THE FINAL PLAY OF THE GAME 😱🐲
📺: https://t.co/ye3taPbWn6#G_MACfb | @GreatMidwestAC | @TUDragonFB pic.twitter.com/Yc4EhiexuE
— FloCollege | Football (@FloCollegeFB) November 15, 2025
10. UNLV 29, Utah State 26 (2OT). Oof. With a chance to secure bowl eligibility, Utah State set up a 44-yard field goal for Tanner Rinker at the buzzer in regulation, but he missed it. And after UNLV missed a field goal itself in overtime, Rinker got a look at a 41-yarder for the win. Missed it too. He finally knocked one in to start the second OT, but UNLV’s Kayden McGee raced 25 yards on the next snap, and UNLV moved to 8-2. The Rebels have an excellent chance of finishing with double-digit wins for the second time in three years (and only the third time in 50).
11 and 12. East Carolina 31, Memphis 27; Navy 41, No. 24 South Florida 38.
Make it three one-score losses for Memphis in 2025. On Senior Day in Greenville, the Tigers led at halftime thanks in part to an 84-yard Sutton Smith touchdown run, but Katin Houser and Payton Mangrum connected for a 31-yard score with 1:08 left, and Mike Wright Jr. picked off Brendon Lewis‘ last-second heave to secure the win and move ECU to 5-1 in American Conference play and keep its slight conference title hopes alive.
Earlier Saturday, Navy took an early lead on USF and somehow made it hold up. The Midshipmen rushed for 338 yards and led 14-3 after one quarter, and while USF cut the deficit to one score on five occasions, the Midshipmen responded with a score of their own four times and recovered a late onside kick to finish off the upset.
USF’s loss was an eliminator in the race for the Group of 5’s playoff race, which, according to the combined playoff odds used above, basically give the Sun Belt’s James Madison the best shot of reaching the CFP.
CFP Tier (Group of) 5 odds: James Madison 40.3%, North Texas 30.4%, Tulane 10.8%
The American Conference still has the best chance of producing the CFP’s representative, be it North Texas, Tulane or a longer shot, but JMU is the single most likely team.
13. Clemson 20, No. 20 Louisville 19. Clemson fumbled the ball on third-and-goal from the 1, recovered it, then fumbled again on fourth down. Louisville committed three fourth-quarter personal fouls (it felt like about 12) and missed a potential go-ahead field goal. Clemson muffed a punt snap. Louisville missed another field goal.
I guess games don’t always have to be good to be good. This one was tense, gripping and all sorts of sloppy — as sloppy as the win probability chart, in fact.
With the loss, Louisville no longer has a role to play in the ACC race.
14. Arizona State 25, West Virginia 23. Still hoping to snag bowl eligibility at 4-6, West Virginia did so many things right in this one. The Mountaineers limited ASU quarterback Jeff Sims to 81 rushing yards — he had 228 his last time out — and scored on second-half touchdown passes of 75 yards (from Scotty Fox Jr. to Jeff Weimer) and 90 yards (Fox to Cyncir Bowers) to take a 23-22 lead into the final minutes. But Jesus Gomez‘s 49-yard field goal gave ASU a 2-point advantage, and Fox was out of magic. He was picked off by Keith Abney II near midfield. Ballgame.
15. FCS: Valparaiso 32, Stetson 31 (OT). You know how coaches will sometimes talk about having one 2-point play they’re particularly confident in? Valpo came up with a pretty good solution for that: Make every 2-point play your best! Down 24-0 late in the third quarter, the Beacons surged back with three touchdowns and three 2-pointers — the last of which came with just one second left in regulation — and when they got the ball second in OT and scored to get within a point, what did they do? Go for two and make it, of course!
A look at how the comeback W finished. @valpoufootball x #GoValpo pic.twitter.com/oB1xaW3ncD
— Valpo Athletics (@valpoathletics) November 16, 2025
16. Division III: No. 25 Franklin & Marshall 29, No. 3 Johns Hopkins 28. What’s better than beating a mighty rival to secure your first-ever Division III playoff berth? Doing it in overtime after coming back from 21 points down!
FB | CHAMPIONS @FandMFootball are your 2025 Centennial Conference Football Champions‼️
The Diplomats outlast Johns Hopkins 29-28 in an OT thriller to claim their first #CCfb title since 2017. #CentConf #d3fb pic.twitter.com/rc23uDK22v
— CentennialConference (@CentennialConf) November 15, 2025
November is peak “players storm the end zone in celebration after an historic touchdown” month. Love it.
17. Western Michigan 17, Ohio 13. This game was a little more controlled than Kent State-Akron, but this Tuesday nighter was just as tense and more important in the MAC standings. Every score gave a team the lead, and Ohio finished a 17-play, 10-minute drive with a short Sieh Bangura touchdown to build a 13-10 advantage early in the fourth quarter. Just three plays later, following a 71-yard catch and run by Tailique Williams, Jalen Buckley scored to make it 17-13. Three stops later, WMU was in sole possession of first place in the MAC. The Broncos are 5-1 with five teams tied at 4-2.
18. Sam Houston 26, Delaware 23. Sam Houston went on a 26-0 run to seize control, but Delaware scored two touchdowns and recovered an onside kick. But Nate Reed‘s late 36-yard field goal attempt failed. SHSU has won two in a row after an 0-8 start.
19. No. 17 USC 26, No. 21 Iowa 21. First half: Iowa averages 6.8 yards per play while building a 21-10 halftime lead. Second half: The Hawkeyes go scoreless with a turnover and turnover on downs, and Jayden Maiava leads the Trojans to a comeback win that saves their CFP hopes (and sends “College GameDay” back to Eugene for this week’s USC-Oregon game).
20. Division II: No. 6 Central Washington 19, No. 24 Western Oregon 17. Down 17-3 heading into the fourth quarter, CWU scored twice to get within four points, and with the Lone Star Conference title on the line, Kennedy McGill found Logan Brady for a 13-yard score as time expired.
21. Division II: West Liberty 68, Wheeling 67. The most ridiculous track meet of the day was in West Liberty, West Virginia. The game began with a 100-yard kick return score and never calmed down for a second. WLU’s Hunter Patterson had a 62-yard TD catch and a 68-yard TD run in the third quarter alone, and after Wheeling erased a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit to take the lead, Osama Hurst caught a short touchdown with eight seconds left for the win.
22. Division II: West Texas A&M 45, Angelo State 44. West Texas A&M told WLU, “Game-winning score with eight seconds left? We can cut two seconds off of that!” Angelo State led 37-17 in the third quarter, but the Rams scored 28 points in the final 20 minutes, and Zach Phipps caught the game-winner with six seconds remaining. Division II has been ridiculously fun the last couple of weeks. Can’t wait for the playoffs.
23. FCS: No. 22 South Dakota 53, No. 23 Southern Illinois 51 (5OT). Can I interest you in a five-overtime marathon with playoff stakes? South Dakota moved to 8-4, but it took forever. The Yotes had to erase a 31-14 third-quarter deficit, then watch SIU send the game to OT with a late field goal. But Larenzo Fenner‘s two-point catch in the fifth OT made the difference.
24. NAIA: No. 20 Georgetown College 34, No. 10 Campbellsville 32. Trailing 34-13 with nine minutes remaining, Campbellsville scored three times, but Jett Engle’s 2-point conversion pass with 26 seconds remaining failed. Georgetown needed this one to keep NAIA playoff hopes alive and juuuuuust barely got it.
25. FCS: Elon 31, Campbell 24. We end with one more smaller-school finish. Elon watched a 17-3 halftime lead turn into a 24-17 fourth-quarter deficit, but Landen Clark‘s 19-yard scramble on fourth-and-8 tied the game with 2:50 left. The Phoenix got the ball back at their 5 with about a minute left — play for overtime, right? Nope! Go deep to Isaiah Fuhrmann instead!
*96 Yards. #PhoenixRising | #AED pic.twitter.com/6b3TwwcSZZ
— Elon Football (@ElonFootball) November 16, 2025
I’d say that silenced the home crowd.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
Nevada: up 4.6 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 128th to 121st)
Texas Tech: up 3.6 points (from fourth to third)
UConn: up 3.2 points (from 58th to 47th)
Texas State: up 3.0 points (from 98th to 80th)
Virginia: up 3.0 points (from 43rd to 34th)
It’s hard for a team near the top of the ratings to gain a ton of points this late in the year, but Texas Tech’s performance against UCF was so resounding that the Red Raiders nearly rose more than anyone else this week.
Here are some of the key stats if we filter out garbage time:
Yards per play: Tech 8.6 (41 snaps), UCF 2.1 (34 snaps)
Success rate: Tech 68.3%, UCF 23.5%
Yards per successful play: Tech 12.0, UCF 6.8
Pct. of plays gaining 20+ yards: Tech 12.2%, UCF 0.0%
Pct. of plays gaining zero or fewer: Tech 19.5%, UCF 38.2%
Red zone trips: Tech 7, UCF 1
Red zone TD rate: Tech 57.1%, UCF 0.0%
UCF’s one decent non-garbage time drive ended in a David Bailey sack of Tayven Jackson on fourth down. The Red Raiders did whatever they wanted. They probably aren’t as good as Ohio State — I’m resigning myself to the Buckeyes being a hefty title favorite at this point — but I’d put them on even ground, at worst, against anyone else in the country.
Moving down
Here are the five teams whose ratings fell the most:
Louisiana Tech: down 3.4 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 69th to 76th)
Southern Miss: down 3.3 points (from 73rd to 86th)
NC State: down 3.0 (from 57th to 68th)
UCF: down 2.9 points (from 55th to 67th)
Purdue: down 2.9 points (from 84th to 96th)
It’s my own fault, I realize, but with the way quarterback CJ Bailey had been playing, I thought NC State might be able to make Miami sweat a little bit Saturday. I knew the Wolfpack defense would probably get hit pretty hard, but I thought it was fair to assume Bailey would manage to throw for more than 120 yards (with two picks) or Hollywood Smothers would manage more than minus-2 yards in seven carries in a 41-7 loss. Complete domination by Miami, complete implosion by the Pack.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Ahmad Hardy, Missouri (25 carries for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns against Mississippi State).
2. Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss (28 carries for 224 yards and 3 touchdowns against Florida).
3. Dante Moore, Oregon (27-for-30 passing for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 16 non-sack rushing yards against Minnesota).
4. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (22-for-24 passing for 299 yards and 4 touchdowns against Wisconsin).
5. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (24-for-29 passing for 229 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 33 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Texas).
6. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (26-for-34 passing for 371 yards and a touchdown, plus 61 non-sack rushing yards against Boston College).
7. OJ Arnold, Georgia Southern (21 carries for 267 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 53 receiving yards and a touchdown against Coastal Carolina).
8. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M (22-for-39 passing for 439 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs, plus 31 non-sack rushing yards against South Carolina).
9. Caleb Hawkins, North Texas (27 carries for 189 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 21 receiving yards against UAB).
10. Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, Marshall (22-for-27 passing for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 102 non-sack rushing yards against Georgia State).
One of my favorite things early in the season was the prominence of YAC, yards after contact, and the way it was driving some early-season success. Mizzou’s Ahmad Hardy was at the center of that and generated some momentary Heisman buzz before an October funk — three games, 207 total rushing yards, 3.7 per carry — put an end to that. But after a 109-yard performance in a loss against Texas A&M last week, Hardy put together his hardest-running performance of the season Saturday night.
THE CUT BACK & HE CAN’T BEAT. ‼️
AHMAD HARDY 72-YD TD@MizzouFootball x 📺 @SECNetwork pic.twitter.com/lGaKVc2dCr
— Southeastern Conference (@SEC) November 16, 2025
Meanwhile, the guy he more or less replaced in the Mizzou lineup — sophomore Kewan Lacy, who transferred to Ole Miss last winter — had himself quite the evening as well, allowing the Rebels to control the ball and avoid an upset in a funky game against Florida.
Hardy and Lacy managed to overshadow some pretty awesome passing performances from Big Ten QBs Mendoza and Moore (who went a combined 49-for-54) and a pair of Georgia-based QBs (Stockton and King) who should put on a heck of a show against each other in a couple of weeks. And I even had to squeeze Marcel Reed onto the list despite his playing the worst first half of his life against South Carolina. Throwing for 298 yards in the second half can cure a lot of ailments; more guys should try that.
Honorable mention:
• Kaytron Allen, Penn State (25 carries for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 10 receiving yards against Michigan State).
• Bear Bachmeier, BYU (23-for-33 passing for 296 yards and a touchdown, plus 59 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against TCU).
• Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (23 carries for 147 yards and a touchdown, plus 20 receiving yards against Pitt).
• Jordan Kwiatkowski, Central Michigan (9 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 forced fumble, 1 pass breakup and a pick-six against Buffalo).
• Andrew Marsh, Michigan (12 catches for 189 yards against Northwestern).
• Toriano Pride Jr., Missouri (three tackles, 1.5 TFLs, a pick-six, a 62-yard fumble return and a pass breakup against Mississippi State)
• Jordon Simmons, Georgia State (19 carries for 164 yards and a touchdown, plus 64 receiving yards against Marshall).
• Marcel Williams, Akron (14 catches for 206 yards and 2 touchdowns against Kent State).
Through 12 weeks, here are your points leaders, once again with ties broken by total points from the last four weeks:
1. Julian Sayin, Ohio State: 29 points (13 in the last four weeks)
2. Ty Simpson, Alabama: 29 points (zero)
3. Taylen Green, Arkansas: 27 points
4. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana: 26 points
5. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss: 25 points (10 in the last four weeks)
6. Gunner Stockton, Georgia: 25 points (six)
7. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt: 24 points
8. Demond Williams Jr., Washington: 21 points
9. Haynes King, Georgia Tech: 18 points
10. Luke Altmyer, Illinois: 16 points
Sayin took the lead in the points race last week but had a pretty forgettable evening against UCLA, allowing for Mendoza and Stockton to make up ground.
Of course, this race isn’t in charge of who gets the Heisman, and if conventional wisdom is any indication, it’s Sayin (+225 Heisman odds, per ESPN BET) who must make up ground on Mendoza (-125). I wrote last week that I’m not really a fan of that — Mendoza charged ahead after barely beating a Penn State team Sayin had just torched the week before — but barring some last-minute chaos (something the Big Ten doesn’t seem interested in producing), we’ll get a Sayin-Mendoza showdown in Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship game, and potentially the Heisman, in three more weeks. That could make the choice pretty easy, one way or the other.
The midweek playlist
Miami (Ohio) at Buffalo (Wednesday, 7 p.m., ESPN2). You should always watch MACtion just in case; lord knows I wasn’t telling you to watch Kent State-Akron last week, but you missed out if you didn’t. But the most important game of this week’s batch is in Buffalo, where two of five teams with two conference losses face off. (You should definitely dual-screen that one with Central Michigan-Kent State — the Golden Flashes still have a slight chance of reaching bowl eligibility, though CMU is hot.)
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