Who won and what questions remain after recruiting’s busiest month
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Eli Lederman
The most active month of the 2026 recruiting cycle is drawing to a close. How did things shake out on the recruiting trail among the nation’s top college football programs this June?
Headlined by five-star commitments, Florida, Texas and Texas A&M led the charge among the nation’s recruiting risers. Defensive end JaReylan McCoy (No. 9 in the 2026 ESPN 300) gives the Gators a big boost. For the Longhorns and Aggies, commits Richard Wesley (No. 11) and Brandon Arrington (No. 15) land as respective defensive anchors for the Texas rivals in the 2026 class.
Who whiffed on the month of June? Auburn, Oregon and Penn State took tumbles over the past 30 days through key decommitments and misses on some of the most coveted prospects in the 2026 ESPN 300. Meanwhile, Alabama, LSU and Ohio State stand among the prominent football powers poised to rise in July after quiet June windows.
With 33 of the nation’s top 100 prospects still uncommitted, many of the biggest dominoes within the 2026 class are still to fall. As the cycle shifts from late spring’s official visit season into the commitment-heavy waters of July, we dive into June’s recruiting winners, what’s next for the teams that missed big and the programs most likely to climb over the next month.
Jump to a section:
Big winners | Teams with questions | Who could rise
June’s biggest recruiting winners
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 2
The Aggies’ recruiting heater peaked with the June 19 commitment of five-star athlete Brandon Arrington, who chose Texas A&M over Oregon and sealed the highest-ranked pledge of the Mike Elko era in College Station. Beating Texas to No. 5 overall running back K.J. Edwards two days earlier marked a signature in-state victory, too. Between Edwards and fellow in-state rusher Jonathan Hatton Jr., the Aggies will close the month with the 2026 cycle’s top-ranked running back tandem. Commitments from three more top-300 recruits in June — cornerback Camren Hamiel, offensive tackle Samuel Roseborough and defensive end Tristian Givens — leave Texas A&M level with Georgia for the third-most ESPN 300 pledges nationally entering July.
Through the additions of Edwards and Hatton, along with the late-cycle pledge of five-star offensive tackle Lamont Rogers in the 2025 class, Elko has shown himself capable of winning high-level recruiting battles in the state of Texas. But the Aggies’ message is carrying nationally as well. Of the 10 pledges Texas A&M landed in June, five came from out of state, including four of the five ESPN 300 commits now anchoring the nation’s second-ranked class, and the Aggies aren’t done yet. No. 1 overall prospect Lamar Brown, who is set to commit July 10, is among the program’s priority targets for the new month.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 14
After surging only in the final months of the 2025 cycle, the Gators used June to get the ball rolling much earlier on the program’s 2026 class. Of the eight ESPN prospects committed to Florida, seven have landed with the Gators over the past 30 days. That group of newcomers is headlined by five-star defensive end JaReylan McCoy, who stiff-armed LSU and Texas for Florida and would be the Gators’ highest-ranked defensive signee since 2015.
Florida built out the early core of its skill position class in June with four-star running back pledge Carsyn Baker and pass catchers Marquez Daniel and Justin Williams. Five-star tight end Kaiden Prothro, a heavy Georgia lean, could join that group when he picks among the Bulldogs, Gators and Texas on July 12. In the June arrivals of safety commit Kaiden Hall and Nebraska cornerback flip C.J. Bronaugh, Florida has at least two more ESPN 300 defensive back talents on the way after landing top-100 prospects J’Vari Flowers, Hylton Stubbs and Lagonza Hayward Jr. in the 2025 class.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 3
A slow start in the 2026 cycle gave way to an explosive spring for Notre Dame, highlighted by 11 ESPN 300 pledges since April 1. As things stand, Marcus Freeman and the reigning national runner-up Irish are on track to sign a historic class later this year.
Three ESPN commitments over the past 30 days made June a high-quality, low-volume month for Notre Dame. The Irish beat out Michigan, Oregon and Penn State for No. 2 overall cornerback Khary Adams on June 20, then edged the Ducks, Nittany Lions and Clemson for safety Joey O’Brien hours later, forming the foundation of the program’s 2026 defensive back class, which also includes top-200 safety Ayden Pouncey. Adams, No. 28 overall, is Notre Dame’s top-ranked commit in the cycle following the latest update to the 2026 ESPN 300.
No. 5 overall tight end Ian Premer‘s commitment marked the latest bit of recruiting momentum in South Bend. If Premer signs later this year, he’ll be the program’s highest-ranked tight end addition since Cane Berrong in the 2021 cycle, and Notre Dame likely isn’t done adding pass catchers, with wide receivers Kaydon Finley, Devin Fitzgerald and Brayden Robinson set to announce commitments later this week.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 7
The Longhorns landed their first-ever No. 1 class in the ESPN recruiting rankings era (since 2006) last cycle, and coach Steve Sarkisian & Co. have set themselves up to contend for another in 2026 with a productive month of June of recruiting along the defensive line.
Texas’ top-ranked 2025 class included four defensive linemen, headlined by five-star Justus Terry. But the flood of talent out of the Longhorns’ defensive line room this offseason meant the team needed to continue adding at the position for 2026. With the June additions of Corey Wells, Dylan Berymon and Vodney Cleveland, Texas holds more top-20 defensive tackle pledges than any program nationally. In the June 22 commitment of five-star pass rusher Richard Wesley, No. 11 in the 2026 ESPN 300, the Longhorns landed an impact playmaker on the edge and headliner for the program’s incoming defensive line class.
Well stocked on the defensive line, the rest of Texas’ 2026 cycle will be defined by the program’s success elsewhere in the coming month. Five-star targets Tyler Atkinson and Felix Ojo have the potential to supercharge the Longhorns’ 2026 class. Additions of top 100 prospects John Turntine III, Trenton Henderson and Jamarion Carlton could be in the cards, too.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 10
The Seminoles entered June with seven total pledges and only three from the 2026 ESPN 300. As of Monday, Florida State’s incoming class sits in a much healthier spot with 12 commits since June 1, providing coach Mike Norvell and his new-look staff a potential springboard toward a stronger finish later this year.
Quarterback recruiting has long been a sticking point throughout Norvell’s tenure, and Florida State appeared headed for another unnerving cycle at the position until four-star passer Jaden O’Neal committed June 22. The former Oklahoma pledge is ESPN’s No. 7 pocket passer in 2026, and considering the Seminoles’ thin quarterback depth beyond the 2025 season, O’Neal — a polished passer with one of the stronger arms in the class — will join the program next year with a pathway to early reps.
Elsewhere, Florida State is molding a formidable pass-catching class around O’Neal. Former Texas A&M pledge Xavier Tiller, ESPN’s No. 6 overall tight end, became the Seminoles’ top-ranked commit June 23. Auburn wide receiver Devin Carter flipped hours later, landing as the No. 1 wide receiver in a class that also includes June commits Brandon Bennett and Jasen Lopez. Florida State has bolstered its defense too, adding cornerback Lawrence Timmons and defensive end James Carrington over the past two weeks, with more to come in the summer months.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 1
The Trojans shot out to the hottest start of any program in the 2026 cycle, spurred on by the January arrival of general manager Chad Bowden. After beating UCLA to sixth-ranked outside linebacker Talanoa Ili, outmuscling Ohio State and Penn State for pass rusher Luke Wafle and landing safety Peyton Dyer in the past month, USC leads the nation with 17 ESPN 300 commitments.
Just as important: The Trojans have, so far, held on to all of their biggest names this time around. USC’s dip in the 2025 cycle began with the decommitments of eventual five-stars Justus Terry and Isaiah Gibson last June before the Trojans lost a series of high-profile commits in the fall.
To date, Xavier Griffin‘s late-May exit is USC’s only significant departure this spring. That’s good news for coach Lincoln Riley and the Trojans, who could add another elite player to the program’s 2026 class when four-star wide receiver Ethan Feaster commits Friday.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 12
Second-year Bruins coach DeShaun Foster is proving to be the recruiter he was expected to become when he replaced Chip Kelly at UCLA, and offseason staff additions of offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri and offensive line coach Andy Kwon are helping boost the program’s presence on the recruiting trail.
In June, the Bruins added 14 total commitments. None was more significant than the June 7 pledge of offensive tackle Micah Smith, No. 46 in the 2026 ESPN 300. The top-ranked commit of the Foster era, Smith would arrive as UCLA’s highest-rated offensive line addition since Xavier Su’a-Filo in the 2009 cycle. Paired with fellow ESPN 300 offensive tackle pledge Johnnie Jones, who committed June 9, the Bruins have the makings of a historic offensive line class after UCLA finished 107th in sacks allowed in 2024. Four-star passer Oscar Rios‘ commitment to Arizona over the Bruins on Friday was a miss, but is expected to remain a player in what remains of the 2026 quarterback market between now and the early signing period.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 21
Are Kalani Sitake and the Cougars on their way to landing the best recruiting class in program history? That’s the trajectory BYU finds itself on this summer following an 11-win finish in 2024.
The Cougars’ fifth and final commit of June was easily the most significant. In beating Oregon and USC for four-star passer Ryder Lyons, No. 49 in the 2026 ESPN 300, BYU landed its highest-ranked quarterback pledge since 2002 and a class cornerstone last Tuesday. Lyons is the nation’s fifth-ranked overall passer in the cycle. And though he won’t enroll until 2027 because he will be serving on a Latter-day Saints mission after high school, he could feature as soon as his freshman season without an underclassman in the program’s current quarterback room.
With Lyons’ commitment, he joins springtime ESPN 300 pledges Brock Harris and Bott Mulitalo — Utah’s No. 1 and No. 3 recruits in 2026, respectively — in BYU’s incoming class. If all three sign later this year, it will mark the first time the Cougars have landed three top-300 prospects in a single cycle in the ESPN recruiting rankings era.
Current ESPN class ranking: N/A
With only two ESPN 300 pledges in 2026, the Sooners still have plenty of work to do between now and the early signing period. However, Oklahoma avoided disaster at the quarterback position June 20 when No. 5 dual-threat passer Bowe Bentley committed to the program, sealing a major recruiting win for coach Brent Venables and first-year offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle.
Bentley’s pledge marked the end of a recruiting tightrope walk for the Sooners. Oklahoma had appeared settled with its 2026 quarterback after Jaden O’Neal’s commitment last June. But upon Arbuckle’s arrival in December, the program swiftly shifted its focus to an all-out pursuit of Bentley this spring, a move that alienated O’Neal and exposed the Sooners to the risk of missing out on both ESPN 300 passers this summer. That possibility hung in the balance as Bentley took visits to both Oklahoma and LSU earlier this month, but the Sooners remained confident throughout Bentley’s process before securing the pledge of ESPN’s No. 168 recruit.
Oklahoma can now turn its attention to the rest of the 2026 class, working to flip the downward trend for a program that has fallen in ESPN’s class rankings each year since the Sooners locked down the nation’s No. 4 class in 2023.
Current ESPN class ranking: No. 19
It has been at least 10 years since the Bears signed an offensive lineman of the caliber of top-ranked guard Tommy Tofi. That’s why the Bay Area lineman’s June 3 decision to commit to the Bears over Oregon marked such a significant recruiting upset for Cal. The Ducks aren’t going away in Tofi’s recruitment. But if the Bears can hold on to the 6-foot-4, 340-pound blocker, it will mark a statement addition for coach Justin Wilcox, only one cycle removed from securing ESPN 300 guard Justin Hasenhuetl and quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.
Tofi is one of 15 prospects who landed in Cal’s incoming class over the past month. The Bears appear set to keep their quarterback pipeline going with three-star Brady Palmer, ESPN’s No. 25 pocket passer, and he’ll arrive with a slew of recently committed pass catchers in wide receivers Tyree Sams and E.J. Morgan and tight ends Taimane Purcell and Luca Wolf, all out of the state of California. June offensive line pledges Kamo’i Huihui-White, Koloi Keli and Esiah Wong join Tofi as part of Cal’s ongoing efforts to bulk up on the line of scrimmage in the ACC.
What’s next for teams that whiffed in June
The Tigers’ past month of recruiting was defined as much by the prospects they missed on as it was the recruits who left coach Hugh Freeze’s 2026 class over the past 30 days.
Freeze and his staff fell short on a pair of running backs last week between top in-state running back Ezavier Crowell (Alabama pledge) and four-star Jae Lamar (Georgia). And the Tigers now appear to be on the outside looking in for other top targets, including five-stars Immanuel Iheanacho and Kaiden Prothro and top-50 in-state wide receiver Cederian Morgan. But the June departures of top-200 linebacker pledges JaMichael Garrett (decommit) and Shadarius Toodle (Georgia flip) sting heavily, as does four-star wide receiver Devin Carter’s flip to Florida State on June 23.
Auburn’s flip of four-star Penn State quarterback pledge Peyton Falzone last Thursday was a key win and signaled a concession in the program’s battle with South Carolina for dual-threat passer Landon Duckworth, who visited the Tigers earlier this month. Top-150 inside linebacker target Adam Balogoun-Ali visited Auburn in May and would represent a strong replacement for Toodle. No. 5 defensive end Nolan Wilson, No. 53 overall, is another major defensive target.
The Ducks went big to pull five-stars Dakorien Moore, Na’eem Offord and Trey McNutt away from more traditional recruiting powers in 2025. The 2026 class has seen the program take a more conservative approach on the high school trail, which showed up across key battles in June as Oregon finished second for a series of long-term term targets, including Brandon Arrington (Texas A&M), Ryder Lyons (BYU) and Notre Dame pledges Khary Adams and Joey O’Brien.
Will things play out similarly for the Ducks in July?
Oregon did register a few big recruiting wins in June, led by commitments from No. 1 overall safety Jett Washington, four-star pass catcher Messiah Hampton and quarterback Bryson Beaver, a late riser in the 2026 class. Coach Dan Lanning & Co. will hope that part of the trend can continue as the Ducks keep working Iheanacho, No. 13 in the ESPN 300, and Cal commit Tommy Tofi. Oregon is also expected to remain in serious contention for a trio of top-30 prospects as wide receiver Calvin Russell and linebackers Tyler Atkinson and Anthony Jones make decisions later this summer.
The Nittany Lions registered a number of early wins in the 2026 cycle, and James Franklin’s incoming class remains in the top 10 of ESPN’s latest rankings. However, Penn State went relatively quiet in June, adding offensive guard Benjamin Eziuka as its lone ESPN 300 addition since June 1 while top targets including Arrington, Adams and O’Brien and USC pledge Luke Wafle landed elsewhere before Falzone, ESPN’s No. 7 dual-threat quarterback, flipped to Auburn.
Among the positive signals for the Nittany Lions moving forward is the progress the program made with Iheanacho on his official visit earlier this month. ESPN’s No. 2 offensive tackle told ESPN that Penn State “felt like home” following the mid-June trip, and the program’s relative proximity to Iheanacho’s family in Maryland could give the Nittany Lions an edge in a battle with LSU and Oregon. Top-100 defensive end Carter Meadows is another priority target.
Misses on ESPN 300 cornerback Camren Hamiel (Texas A&M) and Michigan pledges Zion Robinson and Titan Davis, paired with the flip of No. 1 commit C.J. Bronaugh (Florida), lowlighted a challenging June for the Huskers. Nebraska’s fading grip on the recruitment of top-100 rusher Brian Bonner Jr. in a battle with UCLA and Washington doesn’t help matters, either.
However, coach Matt Rhule and the Huskers recovered from Bronaugh’s flip on June 23 with a commitment from ESPN 300 cornerback Danny Odem, and the flip last Friday of four-star Arizona State wide receiver pledge Nalin Scott marked another win. Up ahead, top-300 offensive tackle Kelvin Obot looms as an important target, both for what the 6-5, 270-pound lineman can bring Nebraska and the momentum he could kick off for the Huskers. Obot narrowed his finalists to Michigan, Nebraska, Oregon and Utah in May and visited the Huskers in early June.
Tennessee lost a pledge from three-star Miami wide receiver flip Tyran Evans in June. More critically, the Vols have gone quiet this month, going without a single ESPN 300 addition while top targets including athlete Sequel Patterson and defensive end Tristian Givens committed elsewhere.
The good news for the Vols? There’s plenty of dominos still to fall in Knoxville over the coming weeks. Tennessee remains heavily alongside Texas A&M in flip efforts for five-star LSU wide receiver pledge Tristen Keys. The Vols are serious players for No. 2 running back Savion Hiter and top-100 prospects Joel Wyatt and Darius Gray, while four-star defenders Dereon Albert and T.J. White have Tennessee among their top finalists ahead of their upcoming commitments.
Teams poised to rise in July
It wasn’t quite the furious stretch of June recruiting the Crimson Tide unleashed in the 2025 class, but Alabama was active this month, adding top-150 prospects Xavier Griffin, Ezavier Crowell, Sam Utu and Mack Sutter and flipping Iowa State quarterback pledge Jett Thomalla. For now, coach Kalen DeBoer’s incoming class is still waiting to crack ESPN’s top 25 for 2026, but the Crimson Tide aren’t expected to stay on the outside looking in much longer.
Crowell, No. 31 in the 2026 ESPN 300, was the first to commit among a trio of top in-state targets who visited Alabama on the final weekend before the recruiting dead period. The Crimson Tide will hope to maintain the local momentum when four-star wide receiver Cederian Morgan announces his pledge July 2, while No. 2 outside linebacker prospect Anthony Jones of Mobile, Alabama, also could land in DeBoer’s class over the next month.
Newly minted five-star safety Jireh Edwards is another priority target for the Crimson Tide in a battle with Auburn, Oregon and Texas A&M for ESPN’s No. 23 overall recruit. Set to commit Saturday, Edwards could soon join top-10 cornerbacks Jorden Edmonds and Zyan Gibson in the type of defensive class that might vault Alabama to another top-five finish in 2026.
With the additions of eight ESPN 300 prospects, led by top-50 recruits Justice Fitzpatrick and Ekene Ogboko, the Bulldogs have a case to be among June’s biggest recruiting winners. However, Georgia’s fourth-ranked 2026 class might only get better with top targets set to commit.
Four-star defensive tackle Pierre Dean Jr. could become coach Kirby Smart’s next addition as ESPN’s No. 106 overall recruit prepares to choose between Georgia and South Carolina on Monday. July 12 marks another critical day for the Bulldogs with five-stars Derrek Cooper and Kaiden Prothro set to make their decisions. Cooper, ESPN’s No. 1 running back, is down to Alabama, Florida State, Georgia, Miami, Ohio State and Texas, while Prothro — the versatile, in-state tight end — looks especially likely to land with the Bulldogs over Florida and Texas.
While Georgia contends with Michigan, Ohio State and Tennessee for No. 2 rusher Savion Hiter, top-ranked linebacker Tyler Atkinson, who is No. 14 overall, looms as another major in-state domino.
No program has hosted Atkinson more than Georgia, and the Bulldogs had long been seen as front-runners in his recruitment before Ohio State, Oregon and Texas began making up ground this spring. Any combination of Cooper, Atkinson and Prothro, alongside five-star quarterback pledge Jared Curtis, should have Georgia headed for a 10th straight top-three class.
The Tigers’ lone June addition came from former Mississippi State offensive tackle pledge Emanuel Tucker. But the most important piece of news for coach Brian Kelly is that LSU closes the month with five-star wide receiver Tristen Keys still committed to the program’s 2026 class despite ongoing flip efforts from Miami, Tennessee and Texas A&M.
Hanging on to Keys is a priority. So is the recruitment of No. 1 overall prospect Lamar Brown, the coveted defensive tackle who attends high school on the Tigers’ campus at University Laboratory School. LSU remains the favorite to secure Brown’s pledge July 10, but his long-standing relationships at Texas A&M and fresher connections at Miami will test the ability of Kelly and his staff to keep the nation’s top recruit home in Baton Rouge.
LSU remains in the mix for four-star wide receiver Calvin Russell with Florida State, Miami, Michigan and Oregon also chasing ESPN’s No. 4 wide receiver ahead of his Saturday commitment. Top-100 recruits Chauncey Kennon, Trenton Henderson and Darius Gray stand among the other prominent targets the Tigers will be hovering over in the coming weeks and months.
The Buckeyes took care of most of their business earlier this spring before landing in-state ESPN 300 prospects Cincere Johnson and Favour Akih along with defensive end Khary Wilder out of California this month. What’s next for the nation’s fifth-ranked recruiting class?
Ohio State is working hard to pair Akih, ESPN’s No. 16 running back recruit, with an elite rusher after the Buckeyes hosted Cooper and Hiter — the nation’s top two backfield prospects — last month. Five-star offensive tackle Felix Ojo told ESPN that Ohio State and Texas have pulled ahead in his recruitment with an expected commitment sometime in July. The Buckeyes remain front-runners for top-40 defenders Bralan Womack and Deuce Geralds. Three-star quarterback Luke Fahey looks likely to join Ohio State’s latest star-studded class Thursday after ESPN’s No. 28 pocket passer closed the June official visit period with a trip to Columbus.
No. 3 athlete Sequel Patterson and four-star defensive end Aiden Harris are the program’s most recent ESPN 300 additions, and South Carolina appears prepared to add more in July.
Dual-threat quarterback Landon Duckworth, who previously spent 10 months in the Gamecocks’ 2026 class, has maintained his relationships with the staff, and ESPN’s No. 178 overall prospect has been trending toward a fresh commitment to the program in recent weeks. Auburn’s move to flip four-star passer Peyton Falzone only reinforces Duckworth’s expected decision.
Dean, ESPN’s No. 8 defensive tackle, could land with South Carolina on Monday, and the Gamecocks remain top contenders for top-150 prospects Samari Matthews and Somourian Wingo as well. South Carolina has long led in the recruitment of four-star offensive lineman Darius Gray, who could help supercharge coach Shane Beamer’s next class this summer if he ultimately picks the Gamecocks over the likes of Clemson, LSU, Ohio State and Georgia.
The 12-team College Football Playoff has significantly broadened the pool of candidates to include any team that has a chance to win its conference — and that makes every FBS race matter longer, as the selection committee’s five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff.
Heading into the final Saturday of September, the shifting continues as conference races are just beginning to heat up.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: Ole Miss. The Rebels gained serious top-12 consideration this week after a 4-0 start that included back-to-back wins against SEC opponents (Kentucky and Arkansas) and a 45-10 drubbing of a talented Tulane team. Ole Miss is No. 7 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which means the average top-25 team would have a 47.7% chance to achieve the same record against the same opponents. The real test, though, is on Saturday when Ole Miss hosts LSU (3:30 p.m., ABC). If the Rebels win, they should be undefeated heading into back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma. Those are the most difficult games on the schedule. If the Rebels can go 2-1 against those three opponents, they’d almost certainly be in. ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss a 67% chance to reach the playoff.
The enigma: Texas. The Longhorns dropped out of the top 12 this week because Texas Tech moved in. That doesn’t mean Texas isn’t a playoff team — it just hasn’t proved it yet with wins against San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston. The SEC season opener at Florida on Oct. 4 is also a strange one, as it’s a game the Longhorns could lose but shouldn’t if they are a real playoff team. They’ve got a bye week to prepare for it. A Texas win won’t do much to reassert its place in the national picture, but a loss would be telling. The most likely outcome is the selection committee will learn more about Texas on Oct. 11 against rival Oklahoma, which is in the projected top 12 this week.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Work to do: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina
Big Ten
Spotlight: Indiana. No team saw its playoff chances increase more this week than Indiana, which jumped 28% and now has a 57% chance to reach the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Saturday’s historic beatdown of the Illini pushed the Hoosiers to No. 11 in the latest projection, but that means they would be excluded from the field during the seeding process. IU would get bumped out to make room for Memphis, the projected winner of the American and fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. Because Memphis is currently projected outside of the committee’s top 12 — and projected Big 12 winner Texas Tech is currently in the No. 12 spot — the committee’s No. 11 team is the one that gets bounced. If the Hoosiers continue to dominate, though, they will likely climb to a safer spot within the top 10. Indiana has a tougher playoff path this year than last, as it travels to both Oregon and Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Hoosiers less than a 50% chance to beat the Ducks but projects them to beat Penn State.
The enigma: Michigan. The true identity of this team — whether it’s been with interim head coach Biff Poggi or head coach Sherrone Moore — remains a mystery. The Wolverines continue to develop along with freshman starting quarterback Bryce Underwood, who has rebounded since the Week 2 loss at Oklahoma. Michigan found a way to win at Nebraska, the defense for the most part has been above average, and the Wolverines don’t have to play Penn State or Oregon. With the exception of the regular-season finale against rival Ohio State, Michigan’s toughest game will be on Oct. 11 at USC. The Wolverines most likely need to at least split with those opponents to avoid a third loss. If Michigan can do that and finish as a two-loss team, the selection committee would give the Wolverines serious consideration for a top-12 spot. The question is how many other two-loss teams would be out there — and how their résumés would stack up.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State
Work to do: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, USC, Maryland, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (12.2%), according to ESPN Analytics, behind Florida State and Miami. Georgia Tech doesn’t face either of those teams during the regular season — which is why the Jackets might not lose until the regular-season finale against rival Georgia. And they took the Bulldogs to eight overtimes last year in one of the wildest games of the season. If the Jackets finish as a one-loss team with a close loss to Georgia, they’d be in the ACC title game. Florida State and Miami play each other, so one of them has a guaranteed league loss. Georgia Tech would be a lock with an ACC title, but what if it loses, with its only two losses coming to two conference champions — Georgia and whoever wins the ACC? The committee would have a significant debate about this, and it would depend on how the game unfolded and how many other two-loss teams were out there. It’s hard to imagine the committee excluding the ACC runner-up in that scenario, which means the league could get three teams in.
The enigma: Syracuse. That’s right, the Syracuse team that beat Clemson. On the road. With its backup quarterback finishing the game. Are these guys for real? Their lone loss was to a Tennessee team that remains in the committee’s projected top 12. The wins, though, leave something to prove before Syracuse is taken seriously as a contender in the ACC, let alone the CFP. The Orange needed overtime to beat UConn, and the committee will look right over a 66-24 win against Colgate. It’s going to get more difficult, as the Orange will face Georgia Tech and have back-to-back November road trips to Miami and Notre Dame, with a bye week in between. And if Syracuse is going to keep winning, it’s going to have to do it with backup quarterback Rickie Collins, an LSU transfer. ESPN’s FPI gives the Orange less than a 50% chance to win each of those games and the Oct. 4 trip to SMU.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Florida State, Miami
Work to do: Cal, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia, Wake Forest
Would be out: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, SMU, Stanford, Virginia Tech
Big 12
Spotlight: Iowa State. The Cyclones are still hanging around at 4-0, but Texas Tech has eclipsed them as the team to beat in the Big 12 after Saturday’s win at Utah. The Red Raiders now have the best chance to win the league (28.6%), while Iowa State’s chances of even reaching the game are now seventh best at 13%. The Cyclones’ best win is against rival Iowa, as the season-opening win against K-State in Dublin has been diminished by the Wildcats’ 1-3 start. Iowa State had a bye week to prepare for Saturday’s home game against Arizona, which could be more difficult than it might seem. The key stretch for the Cyclones, though, starts on Oct. 25 against BYU, followed by Arizona State and a Nov. 8 trip to TCU.
The enigma: TCU. Just how good is this Horned Frogs team? The season-opening win at North Carolina caught the nation’s attention for all the wrong reasons — the focus was on Bill Belichick’s first loss as a college coach, not the Frogs’ road win. The 35-24 win against SMU was more impressive, even though it was at home, as it was against the best competition to date and the last scheduled game between the former Southwest Conference rivals. Coach Sonny Dykes has engineered the Frogs to a miracle playoff berth before. Can he do it again? According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, TCU has the third-best chance in the Big 12 to reach the CFP (17.6%). If the Frogs don’t clinch a spot with a Big 12 title, it’s going to be tough to win a debate over other contenders if they finish with two losses.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, UCF, Utah
Would be out: Baylor, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Colorado
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish got their first win on Saturday against Purdue and earned some style points in the process, beating the Boilermakers 56-30. They did exactly what they needed to following an 0-2 start. Now they have to do it nine more times. Even with a 10-2 finish, an at-large bid isn’t a guarantee. It depends on how many other 10-2 teams the committee has to consider, what their résumés are — and what those two losses look like. If nothing else, Notre Dame might finish with two of the best losses in the country.
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. The Tigers jumped into the top G5 spot following their 32-31 win against Arkansas on Saturday. Memphis edged South Florida for lead contender status for a playoff bid as one of the five projected highest-ranked conference champions. Memphis rallied from an 18-point deficit to beat Arkansas, its fourth straight home win against an SEC opponent. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Memphis has a 36% chance to reach the playoff, the best among Group of 5 schools. The American has a 73% chance to send a team to the CFP, as four of the six Group of 5 teams with at least a 5% chance come from that conference (Memphis, North Texas, South Florida and Tulane). Speaking of North Texas …
The enigma: North Texas. Meet the Mean Green, an undefeated team that has wins against Washington State and Army. It took overtime to beat both Army and Western Michigan on the road, but North Texas dismantled Washington State 59-10. South Florida and Navy are the two toughest opponents remaining, but North Texas doesn’t currently have any top-25 teams on its schedule. According to ESPN Analytics, it has the second-best chance to win the American (21.5%) behind Memphis (42.7%). Those teams don’t play each other during the regular season.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Miami
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Victoria Matiash
Managers who successfully pad their rosters with underappreciated overachievers — either in later rounds or via the free agent market post-draft, while avoiding those who fall flat — are always in superior shape contending for a championship. Sniffing out such characters is the trick, of course, with skill, opportunity, health and career trajectory all playing factors in determining if a player is in position to fly unpredictably high.
We’re taking a slightly different tack this year in looking beyond a player’s fantasy potential in respect to their preseason ranking. While still acknowledging that juxtaposition, approximated Average Draft Position (ADP), plus less tangible elements like reputation and name value are also being considered. We probably don’t need to tell you that Mitch Marner is more treasured than his current No. 52 forward ranking suggests. Instead, this is a forum to discuss sleeper candidates who might not attract sufficient attention otherwise.
One last caveat: No rookies here. While some first-year players — Jimmy Snuggerud, Rutger McGroarty, Sam Rinzel, etc. — undoubtedly qualify, they’re receiving fantasy attention all their own elsewhere. The following dozen have at least one full season under their pads, along with a small handful of those who project to disappoint, relative to where they might be selected in respective drafts.
Sleepers
Lukas Dostal, G, Anaheim Ducks (No. 23 goaltender)
With John Gibson taking over Detroit’s crease, the 25-year-old emerges as the undisputed top dog for a Ducks team on the rise. Offseason additions Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund make this club, including rising stars Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier, better, as does having a successful coach like Joel Quenneville behind the bench. The addition of new assistant Ryan McGill isn’t to be underappreciated either. With more than 25 years experience, McGill possesses a well-earned reputation for improving teams defensively. Music to any goaltender’s ears. Dostal will put up his best personal numbers yet while starting at least 55 games in 2025-26. Grab this emerging gem as your No. 3 netminder and reap the fantasy rewards.
Andrei Kuzmenko, F, Los Angeles Kings (No. 230 forward)
There are worse gigs than skating on a scoring line and top power play with a center such as future Hall-of-Famer Anze Kopitar. Just ask the former Flyer/Flame/Canuck, who contributed five goals and 12 assists in 22 games after being traded to the Kings last winter. We’re not suggesting the enigmatic forward will ever amass 74 points again, including 39 goals, like he did in Vancouver his first NHL season. But 65-plus points alongside Kopitar and Adrian Kempe is not too great an ask, with a hearty portion of them on the power play. Just ensure that’s where Kuzmenko is situated to start the season.
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Cole Perfetti, F, Winnipeg Jets (No. 155 forward)
A favorite sleeper candidate heading into 2025-26, the 23-year-old will be afforded the ripe opportunity to break out in a big way. Entering his fourth full campaign, and with Nikolaj Ehlers gone to Carolina, Perfetti is pegged to again compete on a second scoring line and, extra promisingly, be full-time on a top power play with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. Anticipate more than 65 points this season.
Matias Maccelli, F, Toronto Maple Leafs (No. 138 forward)
If — and this is a Scotiabank Arena-sized if — the former Utah skater can stick on a top Leafs line in Marner’s old spot, as projected early on, he’ll be in for a career year. Anyone who gets the chance to compete with Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies on a regular basis is going to put up points, period. Substantially more than the 17 goals and 40 assists Maccelli collected two years ago with the Coyotes. If not, a gig on a second unit with John Tavares and William Nylander wouldn’t be too crummy either. All told, the 24-year-old should feel fairly pumped about his ceiling in Toronto.
Mathew Barzal, F, New York Islanders (No. 117 forward)
Following last year’s injury-riddled campaign, Barzal feels good again, mentally and physically. Good and charged up to make an impact after logging only 20 points in 30 contests. At full health, and in his prime, Barzal boasts point-per-game potential. Like when he scored 80 in 80 only two seasons ago.
Will Cuylle, F, New York Rangers (No. 87 forward)
Rumored to be in the mix for the Rangers’ captaincy until J.T. Miller captured the honor, the third-year skater is being saddled with extra lofty hopes. As in 30-goal/30-assist expectations. Toss in a good sum of shots and exceptional number of hits — he had 300 this past season — and the 23-year-old is poised to make a whole lot of fantasy noise in deeper, balanced leagues. A full-time gig on a scoring line with Miller and Mika Zibanejad, along with secondary power-play minutes, bolsters such promise. Cuylle isn’t yet a household name outside of New York. He will be soon enough.
Trevor Zegras, F, Philadelphia Flyers (No. 106 forward)
Some fresh slates feel more needed than others. As is the case with Zegras and what strikes as a rather necessary move from Anaheim to Philadelphia. While a slot on the second scoring line and top power play appears the worst-case scenario, a gig on the No. 1 unit with Matvei Michkov and Travis Konecny might also be in the cards. More so than with other teams, how new coach Rick Tocchet massages his lineup in camp should be monitored closely. Particularly in how Zegras is utilized. Still only 24 years old, this is a player with 70-point potential. In fresh digs, he’s positioned to provide a spark in deeper leagues.
Morgan Geekie, F, Boston Bruins (No. 136 forward)
Somewhat quietly, the 27-year-old winger pitched in 57 points in 77 games with the Bruins this past season. Not coincidentally, an overwhelming fraction of them — 22 in the last 14 contests — came after Brad Marchand departed for Florida. A full campaign on a top forward unit and power play with center Elias Lindholm and, more significantly, David Pastrnak, should easily boost Geekie near the 70-point plateau.
JJ Peterka, Utah Mammoth (No. 79 forward)
Out of Buffalo, a spot on a scoring line with Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley, and power play alongside Clayton Keller, should see Peterka notch 70 points, minimum, for the first time in his young career. This young skater also likes to shoot on net. After his breakup with the Sabres, the 23-year-old is now the highest-paid forward with his new club. Time to earn that money.
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Ivan Barbashev, F, Vegas Golden Knights (No. 148 forward)
Mostly on a top line with Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, Barbashev averaged 0.73 points/games this past season. Sub in newbie Marner for Mark Stone — if that’s how it does indeed unfold in Vegas — and Barbashev could be in for a slight boost in the production department. The solid forward also likes to throw his body around, to the benefit of fantasy managers in leagues that reward hits.
Shayne Gostisbehere, D, Carolina Hurricanes (No. 51 defenseman)
All he did was score more power-play points (27) than anyone not named Cale Makar, Jake Sanderson, and Quinn Hughes, plus another 18 at even-strength, in only 70 games. Projected to replicate that showing as Carolina’s top unit anchor once more, Gostisbehere merits much greater appreciation in leagues that prize production with the extra skater.
Cam Fowler, D, St. Louis Blues (No. 74 defenseman)
Perennially underrated as a fantasy performer, the former Duck pounded out 36 points in only 51 contests after joining the Blues in December. Nearing 500 career points, the top power-play anchor will bang out another 45 in his first full season with St. Louis. For those who appreciate extra-incentivized skaters, know that Fowler is also in the final year of his current contract.
See also:
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Jackson Blake, F, Hurricanes
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Shea Theodore, D, Golden Knights
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Busts
Connor Bedard, F, Chicago Blackhawks (No. 38 forward)
Chicago’s franchise player needs to be surrounded by a stronger supporting cast. Until then, the 2024 Calder winner won’t break the point-per-game barrier. With Bedard entering the final year of his entry-level deal, Blackhawks management should start making tangible improvements to this roster asap.
Steven Stamkos, F, Nashville Predators (No. 24 forward)
The former Lightning legend scored just 53 points in Nashville last year. While we don’t anticipate a repeat of that uncharacteristically lousy performance from the career better-than-point/game player, he isn’t likely to pitch in upwards of 75 either. So the No. 20 ranking feels off-base.
Mike Matheson, D, Montreal Canadiens (No. 18 defenseman)
In Lane Hutson‘s Calder-winning shadow, Matheson saw his production drop from 62 points in 2023-24 to 31 this past season. Now Noah Dobson is aboard, so how many power-play points can we now expect from the 31-year-old? Answer: Not nearly enough to merit this high ranking.
Brent Burns, D, Colorado Avalanche (No. 53 defenseman)
Joining his fourth NHL team in 22 years, the veteran defender will enjoy another legit shot at winning his first Stanley Cup. So we don’t expect the 40-year-old to complain much about taking a blue-line backseat to the likes of Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Samuel Girard etc. After potting 61 points in Carolina in 2022-23, Burns eked out only 29 this past season. As a projection, that sum feels like his ceiling with the Avalanche.
Logan Thompson, G, Washington Capitals (No. 12 goaltender)
Making his way over from Vegas, Thompson served as a happy fantasy surprise for many in 2024-25. The concern now is can he come close to repeating his sparkling 31-6-6 record (most likely no) for a Capitals team endeavoring to replicate their 111-point campaign? (Also probably not happening.) Thompson’s .910 SV% suggests a lot else went right in securing himself such an impressive winning percentage. He’s a good fantasy goalie, no question, but not our first choice for a No. 2 in reasonable-sized leagues.
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Jake Trotter
Oklahoma quarterback and early Heisman Trophy front-runner John Mateer will miss about a month after suffering a broken bone in his right (throwing) hand in Saturday’s win over Auburn, sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel.
The Sooners announced Mateer will undergo surgery, but did not disclose details of the injury or a timeline for return.
Mateer’s injury came in the first quarter of the 24-17 win, the seventh-ranked Sooners’ second victory over an AP Top 25 team this season.
Mateer is scheduled to undergo the surgery Wednesday in Los Angeles. Dr. Steven Shin will perform the surgery, sources told Thamel. Shin, considered one of the country’s leading hand/wrist surgeons, has worked on Drew Brees, Stephen Curry and Mike Trout.
“After consulting with medical experts, it became clear that surgery is the best option for John and his short- and long-term future,” coach Brent Venables said. “He’s extremely disappointed he will miss some game action but is eager to correct the issue and move forward. As he is with everything, we know he will be aggressive with his rehabilitation and work to return to the field as quickly as possible.”
Mateer’s injury is a massive blow to the Sooners, who are off to a 4-0 start with wins over Michigan and Auburn.
Mateer, who transferred in from Washington State during the offseason, has been the catalyst behind Oklahoma’s stark turnaround after a 6-7 finish in 2024.
He has completed 67.4% of his passes for 1,215 and six touchdowns. He’s also the Sooners’ leading rusher with 190 yards and five more touchdowns. Mateer ranks second nationally with 351.3 yards of total offense per game.
Despite suffering the injury early against Auburn, he finished the game and passed for 271 yards.
With his hot start, Mateer had emerged as the favorite to win the Heisman at +750, according to ESPN BET Sportsbook. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (+650) is the new favorite as of Tuesday.
Venables said sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. will start Oklahoma’s next game against Kent State on Oct. 4 Hawkins started four games for the Sooners last season, passing for 783 yards and three touchdowns.
Oklahoma faces rival Texas on Oct. 11.
After a trip to South Carolina, the Sooners close out the regular season with five straight games against ranked opponents: No. 13 Ole Miss, at No. 15 Tennessee, at No. 18 Alabama, No. 20 Missouri and No. 4 LSU.
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