Judge, Ohtani and … Ernie Clement? First-half MVPs and playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams
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Bradford Doolittle
Welcome to the middle of the 2025 MLB season. We’ve already passed the natural halfway point (1,215 games) and are nearing the symbolic version of midseason (the All-Star break). Either way, we’ve seen more regular-season baseball in 2025 than we’ll get the rest of the way.
With that in mind, let’s wade into this month’s Stock Watch by taking a retrospective spin around the majors. As usual, we’ll slot teams according to the current competitive hierarchy and see how the picture has changed since we last convened. In addition, we’ll note the dominant storyline that has emerged for each club and hand out first-half MVP awards for all 30 teams.
Should we name those awards? The Stockies? No? OK, fine. Let’s just get to it.
Win average: 101.4 (Last month: 97.9, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 99.7% (Last: 97.2%)
Champions: 24.0% (Last: 16.2%)
First-half storyline: The Dodgers spent the first few months of the season proving the adage that you can’t have too much pitching. A team with an overstuffed pitching depth chart entering the spring has not just endured an avalanche of injuries to the staff, but many of those who have pitched have underachieved. And yet, because the offense has beaten its projection by nearly 100 park-neutral runs per 162 games, the Dodgers are doing just fine, thank you. And the worst of the injury spate has to be behind them at this point. Right?
First-half MVP: Shohei Ohtani (145 AXE, 1st on Dodgers, 3rd in MLB). Ohtani’s OPS is over 1.000 for the third season in a row. He’s on pace to top his career-high 54 homers from last season and score more than 150 runs. He has recently returned to the mound but looks fantastic. Just wait until we see this two-way act on an October stage.
Win average: 97.9 (Last: 99.6, 1st)
In the playoffs: 99.8% (Last: 99.3%)
Champions: 14.4% (Last: 15.6%)
First-half storyline: It’s the year of the Tiger. Detroit has broken out in a stunning way, and it’s thrilling to watch. If the season ended today, the Tigers’ Pythagorean winning percentage would be one of the five best in franchise history, behind only historic teams from 1909 (Ty Cobb), 1934-35 (Hank Greenberg) and 1968 (Denny McLain). It would be ahead of 1984 (Kirk Gibson). Yes, it’s that kind of season for the Tigers.
First-half MVP: Tarik Skubal (138 AXE, 1st on Tigers, 6th in MLB). Skubal has gone to a place that few pitchers reach. He’s in the top four of the AL in wins (1st), ERA (4th) and strikeouts (2nd). Given his trajectory, it’s possible Skubal will win his second straight pitching Triple Crown. The only pitchers to do that in back-to-back seasons: Grover Alexander (1915-16), Lefty Grove (1930-31) and Sandy Koufax (1965-66).
Win average: 96.1 (Last: 97.3, 4th)
In the playoffs: 97.2% (Last: 96.7%)
Champions: 12.6% (Last: 12.3%)
First-half storyline: An offensive explosion. The Cubs’ offense figured to be better after the offseason acquisition of Kyle Tucker. Tucker has been as advertised, but Chicago has gotten production up and down the lineup and is on pace to beat its park-neutral run forecast by 102 runs. The Cubs’ 121 team OPS+ so far is their best since — hold on to your hat — 1884.
First-half MVP: (tie) Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong (139 AXE, 1st and 2nd on Cubs, 4th and 5th in MLB). Tucker has a minuscule AXE edge when you go into decimals, but it’s fitting that these dynamic outfielders are co-MVPs when we round off. Again, it has been more than these two. The Cubs’ total of seven players with a 110 AXE or better is tied for second in the majors. Six of them are hitters.
Win average: 94.7 (Last: 89.5, 6th)
In the playoffs: 98.5% (Last: 83.4%)
Champions: 8.9% (Last: 4.2%)
First-half storyline: The window is open. Those (yes, me) who were heralding the imminent demise of the Astros’ dynasty now look like Cassandras. Despite the loss of Kyle Tucker, an injury-riddled half for Yordan Alvarez, a so-so start for Jose Altuve, lackluster production from key signee Christian Walker and the loss of the orange juice theme of its ballpark, Houston once again sits in the catbird seat of the AL West. The pitching — Hunter Brown and the game’s best bullpen — is the main reason, but the Tucker trade (getting Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith from the Cubs) has worked out swimmingly.
First-half MVP: Jeremy Pena (137 AXE, 1st on Astros, 8th in MLB). Pena recently hit the injured list because of a fractured rib. Given the way Houston has responded to adversity to date, the Astros probably won’t lose a game while he’s out. That’s nothing against Pena, who, in his age-27 season, has been baseball’s best shortstop this season.
Win average: 93.5 (Last: 88.6, 8th)
In the playoffs: 93.8% (Last: 65.0%)
Champions: 7.6% (Last: 3.0%)
First-half storyline: They are up in arms in Philadelphia. According to AXE, three of the top six NL starters and four of the top 11 are members of Philadelphia’s rotation … and no one in that quartet is named Aaron Nola. Zack Wheeler, co-front-runner for NL Cy Young with Paul Skenes, leads the way, but Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo have been excellent. Mick Abel and Taijuan Walker have chipped in. If Nola can get healthy and productive, and if Andrew Painter is anything close to advertised, the Phillies will feature baseball’s best and deepest rotation.
First-half MVP: Zack Wheeler (138 AXE, 1st on Phillies, 7th in MLB). At 35, Wheeler has flashed career-best levels in ERA+, FIP, WHIP and SO/9. If Wheeler doesn’t land his first Cy Young Award, it will be because someone like Skenes takes it from him, not because he doesn’t earn it.
Win average: 92.4 (Last: 97.3, 5th)
In the playoffs: 95.8% (Last: 98.0%)
Champions: 12.8% (Last: 18.6%)
First-half storyline: Improv time in the Bronx. The Yankees’ run profile is almost exactly on target with the preseason projection, yet this season has not followed the script. The pitching has mostly held up despite Gerrit Cole‘s season-ending injury and Devin Williams‘ mysterious inconsistencies. The hitting has found its level around Aaron Judge despite Juan Soto‘s departure and that Giancarlo Stanton‘s first homer didn’t happen until July 2. Yet, as things began to ebb in June, the outcome of this Yankees story is very hard to foresee now.
First-half MVP: Aaron Judge (159 AXE, 1st on Yankees, 1st in MLB). Despite a temporary recent downtick that now seems to be over, Judge is hitting .363/.470/.735 and is on pace for 12 WAR while playing every Yankees game so far. Don’t take this guy for granted, baseball fans — even those of you who don’t like the Yankees — because this is incredibly special.
Win average: 89.4 (Last: 98.2, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 75.7% (Last: 97.7%)
Champions: 3.2% (Last: 13.5%)
First-half storyline: Peaked too soon? The Mets got off to a roaring start but slumped miserably over the second half of June. Through June 12, New York was 45-24 and owned baseball’s best ERA, mostly thanks to an MLB-low 2.79 mark from the rotation. New York dropped 14 of 18 after that while posting the worst rotation ERA (5.93), bullpen ERA (6.53) and, of course, overall ERA (6.24) during that span. Injuries have played a big part in the plunge, but a team built on depth — which the Mets are — should hold up better than this. July is a really big month for this team.
First-half MVP: Pete Alonso (129 AXE, 1st on Mets, 18th in MLB). It’s a good thing the Mets paid Alonso during the winter. They’ve gotten the hottest version of the Polar Bear yet, one who suddenly discovered the joys of the line drive. Still, that Alonso lands in this slot rather than Juan Soto or Francisco Lindor (both 126 AXE) is a bit of an upset and, perhaps, an omen of happy regression from here.
Win average: 88.2 (Last: 85.6, 12th)
In the playoffs: 82.4% (Last: 56.9%)
Champions: 4.5% (Last: 2.0%)
First-half storyline: Major offense in a minor venue. The Rays dropped to a season-low five games under .500 on May 20 and proceeded to win 27 of 40 behind a surging offense. The Rays scored 20 more runs than any other team during the spree, as they joined division rival Toronto in bearing down on the Yankees for the AL East lead. As usual, the Rays are doing it with a roster of players casual fans might be pressed to identify. Tampa Bay might be playing in a minor league venue, but the Rays’ way continues to flourish in the majors.
First-half MVP: Jonathan Aranda (123 AXE, 1st on Rays, 42nd in MLB). Well, something clicked for Aranda, a 27-year-old first baseman who entered 2025 as a career .222 hitter. He has tacked on nearly 100 points to that mark this season with excellent secondary skills. His 123 AXE is tops among AL primary first basemen, including All-Star starter Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win average: 87.5 (Last: 84.8, 13th)
In the playoffs: 61.7% (Last: 34.5%)
Champions: 2.1% (Last: 0.9%)
First-half storyline: More than enough good. No, that’s not bad syntax, it’s how the 2025 Brewers are built. Yet, Milwaukee is in the thick of postseason contention and it’s not because of any star-level breakouts, not even from super-talented Jackson Chourio. Instead, the Brewers have 18 players in the 100-to-119 AXE range, second most in baseball behind St. Louis. No greatness, just lots of goodness.
First-half MVP: Brice Turang (119 AXE, 1st on Brewers, 65th in MLB). Turang is again flashing Gold Glove defense at second base and stealing bags when he gets on base, which he has been doing more than ever. His OBP is fueled by a .288 batting average, which, in turn, is fueled by a .363 BABIP. Fluke? There might be some regression in store, but the improvements are real. Turang’s line drive rate is 3% better than the league average, and his hard-hit rate has jumped by 16.3% over last season. Turang has tacked on 4.6 mph to his 2024 average exit velocity.
Win average: 86.9 (Last: 84.3, 15th)
In the playoffs: 72.7% (Last: 46.2%)
Champions: 1.8% (Last: 1.0%)
First-half storyline: Staying afloat. The Blue Jays are even in the AL East standings with the Yankees shortly after July began despite the run differential of a middle-of-the-pack team. The Jays have gotten little from key signee Anthony Santander. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been very good but not great. Same for Bo Bichette. The key high-leverage relievers (Jeff Hoffman and Chad Green) have been coughing up too many homers. And yet, here the Jays are … and some of these problems might regress in the right direction. Or maybe the run differential is more of who the Jays are than the record. This is why we play 162-game seasons, to sort out stuff like this.
First-half MVP: Ernie Clement (119 AXE, 2nd on Blue Jays, 63rd in MLB). Guerrero leads the Jays in AXE (121), but we’re going to shine a light on the surprising Clement. Not that this is a race we track, but he has to be the front-runner for the AL Gold Glove at the utility player position. At the plate, he has made the most of his high-contact style. The defense, in particular, underscores a big factor in Toronto’s success: MLB-best defensive metrics.
Win average: 85.6 (Last: 84.5, 14th)
In the playoffs: 66.5% (Last: 51.1%)
Champions: 2.4% (Last: 1.9%)
First-half storyline: Rotation injuries. The Mariners have mostly spread out their injuries, but their core-five starting rotation has not been whole this season. Given that knowledge at the beginning of the season, you would not expect Seattle to be where it is, which is in position to land a wild-card slot if the season ended now. And that rotation has a good chance of getting whole as the season progresses.
First-half MVP: Cal Raleigh (149 AXE, 1st on Mariners, 2nd in MLB). Entering the season, Raleigh had a good case to be considered baseball’s best catcher. And, sure, he has hit a lot of homers the past couple of years. But could anyone have envisioned this? This is more than a breakout. This is a player on pace to shatter Mickey Mantle’s record for single-season homers by a switch-hitter (54 in 1961). And he’s a Gold Glove catcher.
Win average: 85.6 (Last: 88.4, 9th)
In the playoffs: 41.3% (Last: 62.0%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 1.9%)
First-half storyline: Covering the holes. Entering the season, the Padres figured to have some glaring lineup holes, and that has been the case. But San Diego has stayed in contention behind the star power of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, and the work of a deep and dominant bullpen. As for those holes? We’ve got a month until the trade deadline.
First-half MVP: Fernando Tatis Jr. (131 AXE, 1st on Padres, 15th in MLB). Post-suspension Tatis still operates at a lower level than pre-suspension Tatis. Before missing the 2022 season, Tatis had a 160 OPS+ and averaged 8 bWAR per 162 games. Since coming back, he’s at 118 OPS and 5.7 bWAR per 162 games. But Tatis is still really good, and always has that ability to be great stashed in his hip pocket.
Win average: 85.5 (Last: 85.7, 11th)
In the playoffs: 43.2% (Last: 42.1%)
Champions: 1.0% (Last: 1.1%)
First-half storyline: One fast transition. In retrospect, we might have overreacted to the Cardinals’ offseason rhetoric about 2025 being about positioning for the front office transfer of power to Chaim Bloom. The Cardinals took a passive approach to player acquisition and caught plenty of heat for it. They also removed obstacles in front of a number of their in-house talents, and that has paid off in a big way so far this season.
First-half MVP: Sonny Gray (118 AXE, 1st on Cardinals, 76th in MLB). Like Milwaukee, the Cardinals have succeeded thanks to a depth of solid performances rather than any breakouts. Some of those solid performers are key to St. Louis’ future: Matthew Liberatore, Victor Scott II, Masyn Winn. But the veteran Gray, who might have been dealt if not for his contract’s no-trade clause, has led the way.
Win average: 84.4 (Last: 89.1, 7th)
In the playoffs: 35.5% (Last: 67.0%)
Champions: 1.2% (Last: 2.4%)
First-half storyline: Buster’s breakout followed by a bust-out? Under first-time exec Buster Posey, the Giants exploded out of the gate. Then, they bolstered a lineup light on power with the season’s biggest trade to date, bringing in the suddenly positionally flexible Rafael Devers. Yet, the Giants have since slumped, winning just five of Devers’ first 10 appearances with the team. Where that leaves Posey and the Giants is unclear, but it’s nothing a Devers power spree and a few wins wouldn’t fix.
First-half MVP: Logan Webb (126 AXE, 1st on Giants, 26th in MLB). Webb was already established as the closest thing to a durable, top-of-the-rotation starter as we can hope to get in today’s game. This season, he has amped up the run prevention as well, posting a career-high and NL-best 2.32 FIP while again leading the circuit in innings. Alas, on the heels of two straight top-10 Cy Young finishes, as of now, it looks like Webb will have to get even stingier if he is to overtake Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler in the awards race.
Win average: 82.5 (Last: 79.0, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 19.4% (Last: 8.4%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.2%)
First-half storyline: Rambling rotation. The Reds’ game score winning percentage (.612) is the best in the National League and second overall behind the Yankees. This has happened despite Hunter Greene‘s injury and tepid debuts by exciting prospects Chase Petty and Chase Burns. Andrew Abbott has been as hot as any pitcher in baseball, and the trio of Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer and Nick Martinez has been consistently productive. This has a chance to be a very exciting group down the stretch.
First-half MVP: Elly De La Cruz (127 AXE, 1st on Reds, 25th in MLB). De La Cruz is on pace for 34 homers and 41 steals while soaring past 100 runs and 100 RBIs. His OPS+ has risen to 125 on the strength of improving strikeout rates. It kind of feels like he can do more, too. But that might always be the case for De La Cruz, no matter what his numbers look like, simply because he’s such a marvel to watch on the field.
Win average: 82.4 (Last: 81.2, 18th)
In the playoffs: 20.9% (Last: 16.1%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.4%)
First-half storyline: Not what we signed up for. The D-backs appeared positioned to possibly challenge the Dodgers in the NL West, thanks largely to a stacked starting rotation bolstered by the high-dollar signing of Corbin Burnes. Burnes’ season ended after 11 starts, while Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez are on the wrong side of 5.00 ERAs. The bullpen, weakened by injuries to A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez, has been even worse. Too often, Arizona has had to outscore the opposition.
First-half MVP: Eugenio Suarez (124 AXE, 3rd on Diamondbacks, 37th in MLB). Suarez is a hair behind Corbin Carroll (126) and Ketel Marte (125) on the AXE leaderboard, but his potent power bat has perhaps been more crucial to Arizona’s ability to hang around .500. Carroll and Marte have given the Snakes about what they expected — which is considerable — but Suarez has outstripped his projection and helped to shore up shortfalls elsewhere on the roster. From 2021 to 2024, Suarez averaged 2.4 bWAR per season; this year, he’s already at 2.5.
Win average: 81.1 (Last: 79.6, 21st)
In the playoffs: 27.3% (Last: 18.4%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.3%)
First-half storyline: Complete lack of an attack. Two years after riding a dynamic offense to a championship, the Rangers have morphed into an all-pitch, no-hit team despite a lineup with many of the same players. And the positions that have turned over have tended to go to promising prospects such as Josh Jung (recently demoted), Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter. In 2023, the Rangers’ 4.77 home-scoring average ranked sixth in the majors. This season, their 3.76 mark ranks 27th.
First-half MVP: Jacob deGrom (128 AXE, 1st on Rangers, 20th in MLB). On the bright side, deGrom is back and he’s still very much Jacob deGrom … and seemingly getting better with each outing. In general, the rotation has been a bright spot for Texas, whose top three performers by AXE are deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle.
Win average: 80.0 (Last: 79.8, 20th)
In the playoffs: 11.2% (Last: 12.6%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.4%)
First-half storyline: What happened? Last season, the Braves figured prominently into our preseason coverage when we wondered whether it was they or the Dodgers who would emerge as baseball’s power team. Once again, the forecasts were high on Atlanta’s chance to have a bounce-back season and return to the top of a competitive NL East. A couple of days ago, the Braves slipped behind the Marlins in the standings. When you look at an IL that includes Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach, it’s a dispiriting season in Cobb County.
First-half MVP: Matt Olson (125 AXE, 1st on Braves, 34th in MLB). Olson hasn’t produced at the level he flashed in 2023, when he mashed 54 homers and put up 7.5 bWAR. But he has produced and he has also been there, which is more than you can say about most of Atlanta’s other key players. Olson still hasn’t missed a game since joining the Braves as Freddie Freeman‘s replacement in 2022.
Win average: 79.8 (Last: 80.0, 19th)
In the playoffs: 17.8% (Last: 20.3%)
Champions: 0.3% (Last: 0.5%)
First-half storyline: It’s not about who’s here, but who is not. When you look at the roster of the 2018 champion Red Sox and how many of the key players are still star-level players for other teams, this is going to cast a pall over Fenway Park until a new group emerges to win at a high level. Any hopes of that cloud lifting because of the passage of time were dashed when Boston traded Rafael Devers.
First-half MVP: Garrett Crochet (134 AXE, 1st on Red Sox, 11th in MLB). Crochet pitched this well last season for the White Sox, his first full season as a big league starting pitcher. But it wasn’t quite a full season because Chicago tamped down his usage in advance of dealing him for maximum return. Trading for Crochet for a valuable combination of prospects was a bit of a leap of faith by Craig Breslow. Well, you can quibble with a lot of things that have happened in Boston, but so far, the Crochet trade is not one of them.
Win average: 79.7 (Last: 87.2, 10th)
In the playoffs: 18.0% (Last: 68.8%)
Champions: 0.3% (Last: 2.9%)
First-half storyline: Close, but no cigar. The Twins are another team whose park-neutral runs and runs allowed paces are on track to meet forecasts. Their record, however, is not. Why? Look no further than the Twins’ 8-15 record in one-run games. An optimist would suggest that this should even out. The problem is that it’s probably already too late for the Twins in the division race, and they are but one of a legion of teams in the AL’s middle wondering if they are really playoff contenders.
First-half MVP: Byron Buxton (130 AXE, 1st on Twins, 16th in MLB). Buxton is on pace to play in 130 games. That might not sound too impressive, but if he were to get there, it would be the most games he has played in since 2017. A healthy (or mostly healthy) Buxton is something to behold. He has already topped his 2024 totals in homers and steals and is close in bWAR, even though he has appeared in only 69 games. (He played in 102 last season.) Let us all take a moment to knock on wood.
Win average: 77.3 (Last: 81.9, 16th)
In the playoffs: 8.5% (Last: 28.5%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.4%)
First-half storyline: Could really use Josh Naylor. The Guardians’ position player roster this season is dominated by below-replacement performances. You can understand the desire to open things up for power prospect Kyle Manzardo, who has been up and down. But Naylor was a foundational producer for a team that was a couple of wins shy of the World Series in 2024. The lineup needed him a lot more than the rotation needed Slade Cecconi, who has been fine over eight starts. You can’t help but wonder if Cleveland, owner of baseball’s oldest title drought, will ever stop pushing things down the line.
First-half MVP: Jose Ramirez (128 AXE, 1st on Guardians, 24th in MLB). Who else? Ramirez is on target to do what he does every year, across the board. His isolated power is down a touch, but Ramirez remains more than capable of going on a binge to clear that up. This is another season to boost Ramirez’s future Hall of Fame case.
Win average: 76.3 (Last: 73.2, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 6.2% (Last: 2.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Bittersweet surprise. The Angels are a mild surprise because they appeared, at various junctures, like a team about to slide back into the basement. But the 2025 Angels have been fairly resilient despite another Mike Trout injury and lack of superstar production, Ron Washington’s season-ending health issue and widespread bullpen woes, aside from closer Kenley Jansen. It’s to their credit that they’ve stayed close to .500, and there have been some positive developments on the roster. That doesn’t make them contenders.
First-half MVP: Yusei Kikuchi (117 AXE, 1st on Angels, 80th in MLB). The Angels’ rotation has been solid and a big reason the team has stayed competitive. The addition of Kikuchi has been the biggest upgrade. The 34-year-old lefty has mostly retained the gains he made after being traded from Toronto to Houston last season, save for an uptick in walks. He’s not an ace, but he has given the Halos a consistent presence in a rotation that, over the years, has lacked stability.
Win average: 76.2 (Last: 81.3, 17th)
In the playoffs: 5.9% (Last: 25.7%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.5%)
First-half storyline: Oh no, there’s no O. The Royals have been an above-average team in most areas of what helps a team win: defense, baserunning, starting rotation and bullpen. It has all been undermined by wretched hitting. Kansas City has averaged 3.77 runs per game on the road, ranking 25th. That’s bad! But it looks explosive compared with what the Royals have done at the K: 2.84 runs per game. That’s not only last in the majors, but it’s not even close to the second-worst mark (3.58 by Cleveland). If you watch the Royals regularly, hopefully you’ve been wearing a hat because otherwise watching this team hit has likely caused you to pull out all your hair.
First-half MVP: Bobby Witt Jr. (134 AXE, 1st on Royals, 12th in MLB). Witt has been terrific. He hasn’t been as terrific as he was in 2024, and somehow, he finished behind Jacob Wilson of the A’s in the All-Star voting. Witt is perhaps a victim of the standards he set in 2024. Witt is still on pace for 56 doubles, 43 steals and more than 7 bWAR. It’s a “down” season most players can only dream of, and it’s certainly not Witt’s fault the Royals’ offense has been so bad.
Win average: 71.8 (Last: 67.2, 26th)
In the playoffs: 0.3% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Evil rumors. Low-level buzz that maybe the Pirates should look to trade Paul Skenes didn’t come from the team, so you don’t want to bash Pittsburgh for that. But you kind of do because such suggestions should not be possible. They are only because it feels so unlikely that the Pirates will invest in building a contender around Skenes. But again: If you trade this guy during his second season, what are you building for? Anyway, it hasn’t happened. Skenes has been great; the team has not.
First-half MVP: Paul Skenes (137 AXE, 1st on Pirates, 9th in MLB). Skenes is 41 starts into his career, and his ERA remains under two: 1.99, over 244 innings. His ERA+ is 213. It’s the best ever given a minimum career total of 41 starts. Sure, Skenes might hit rough patches and the number would go up. But he’s got a lot of room for error: second best is Kodai Senga (160 over 43 starts) and third is Jacob deGrom (157 over 235 starts).
Win average: 71.1 (Last: 69.4, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.7% (Last: 0.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Thud. Our last preseason Stock Watch pegged the Orioles at 88 wins with a 65% shot at returning to the postseason. That outlook has changed.
First-half MVP: Gunnar Henderson (119 AXE, 1st on Orioles, 70th in MLB). That Henderson would top the Orioles’ AXE leaderboard is no surprise. That he would do so with a 119 mark certainly is — last season, he finished at an MVP-like 150. Henderson has trended upward after a bad April, and there’s nothing really to worry about. Still, his step back is emblematic of Baltimore’s mystifyingly lost season.
Win average: 69.7 (Last: 62.4, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Bobbing back to the surface. There certainly was no particular reason to think the Marlins would be interesting this season, beyond what might possibly happen around the trade deadline with getting-better-fast starter Sandy Alcantara. Give the Fish and first-year manager Clayton McCullough credit, though, because the Marlins enter our July Stock Watch as one of baseball’s hottest teams. In fact, if you go to windows of “past 50 games,” Miami has split those games, better than division mates Atlanta and Washington, a game worse than the Mets and just four behind the Phillies. At the very least, you can say that despite a bad start and zero expectations, Miami has not thrown in the towel.
First-half MVP: Kyle Stowers (114 AXE, 2nd on Marlins, 108th in MLB). Stowers is behind Otto Lopez (116 AXE) for the Marlins, but we’ll give him a nod for his huge strides at the plate. The former Orioles prospect entered the season with a career slash line of .208/.268/.332 over 117 games. This season, he’s at .286/.360/.520 in 80 games, upping his homer total from six to 21 and more than doubling his RBI count. He’s not a star, but he has been a key part of a team that has been kind of fun to watch lately.
Win average: 68.3 (Last: 72.4, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: How long is this going to take? If you zero in on the player level, there is plenty on the Nationals’ roster you can point to as a positive sign: James Wood‘s ascension, the play of CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore, the presence of touted prospects Dylan Crews and Brady House. The bottom line is that a team that hasn’t sniffed .500 since winning the 2019 championship has a winning percentage worse than what it posted in each of the past two seasons. The Nationals need to make a leap, sooner rather than later.
First-half MVP: James Wood (135 AXE, 1st on Nationals, 10th in MLB). Wood is the real deal, a hyped prospect who manifested his ability as soon as he hit the majors. He’s 165 games in at this point and owns a 144 OPS+, 30 homers, 104 RBIs and 26 steals. His power is somehow both explosive and effortless, and his plate discipline is outstanding for such a young slugger. It should only get better from here.
Win average: 65.9 (Last: 64.3, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Is it the park or the pitcher? The Athletics teased us with becoming an exciting sleeper wild-card contender. Then they lapsed into a horrifying slump, a 3-24 disaster during which the staff ERA was 7.79. That would be bad in slow-pitch softball. So much for contention. The Athletics have bounced back to an extent, but their season ERA is 5.67, ahead of only the Rockies. And while Sacramento has not been a hospitable place for the pitchers, the A’s can take solace in the fact that their road ERA is also well over five. It’s just not a good pitching staff.
First-half MVP: Jacob Wilson (123 AXE, 1st on Athletics, 44th in MLB). Wilson has fallen off after an exhilarating start that had his batting average at .372 through June 8. But he’s still a gas to watch, and apparently a lot of people have because Wilson will start at shortstop for the AL in the All-Star Game. As good as Wilson has been at the plate so far in the majors, his defensive metrics have been well in the red. Which kind of makes him the bizarro version of his father, Jack.
Win average: 56.2 (Last: 58.2, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Roster turnover. GM Chris Getz has been a transaction lover as a lead exec, and after the pain of the initial tear-down period, things are starting to feel downright coherent. Some of the prospects have played well in the majors, such as Chase Meidroth and Kyle Teel. The starting rotation has become above average, and that position group has a gaggle of high-upside prospects on the way. The White Sox still lose a lot of games, and the bullpen saves leader is a three-way tie with two. But things have grown considerably less dim than they were at this time last year. Granted, that’s a low bar, but it could be worse.
First-half MVP: Adrian Houser (112 AXE, 1st on White Sox, 132nd in MLB). Houser is our one first-half MVP who didn’t start the season with his team. But he has put up a 1.90 ERA over seven starts after being released by Texas in May. In doing so, he has become someone who might generate interest at the trade deadline. In that way, he’s an avatar for what the White Sox’s modus operandi is at this point: talent accumulation, in every way you can do it.
Win average: 41.8 (Last: 40.8, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
First-half storyline: Historic ineptitude. We wish we could put it nicer than that, but the Rockies are on pace to win 36 games and post a run differential of minus-422. And this isn’t a team following any kind of obvious rebuilding scheme, beyond the reality that when you’re this bad, you are by definition rebuilding. Somehow, the fact that the Rockies are still drawing well at the gate makes this even worse. It’s like a Monty Python sketch.
First-half MVP: Hunter Goodman (116 AXE, 1st on Rockies, 94th in MLB). No snark needed here — Goodman has been pretty solid and, at 25, he is young enough that maybe the gains are legit. The best part of Goodman’s first half is that his numbers are actually a lot better away from Coors: .925 road OPS; .790 at home. He’s been good.
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Chris Low
There isn’t much surrounding college football that isn’t in something of a state of flux.
The discussions surrounding the future playoff format bounce around like a pingpong ball. Schools are for the first time in history sharing revenue with athletes. Conference realignment marches onward, and the overhaul of rosters via the transfer portal continues at a dizzying pace.
All the while, the start of the 2025 season is less than a month away.
What that means is it’s time to take a magnifying glass to the 2025 schedule and hand out some superlatives, some flattering and some not so flattering. All rankings referenced are from ESPN’s post-spring Top 25, and Notre Dame, despite being an independent, will be considered a Power 4 school for our purposes.
Before we dive in, an annual reminder: Schedule strength tends to look a lot different in July than it does in late October.
Toughest overall Power 4 schedule: Florida
A year ago Billy Napier and his Florida football team epitomized resiliency. Despite an ugly 1-2 start, Napier never lost the locker room and guided the Gators to four straight wins to end the season with an 8-5 finish. But just like a year ago, Florida’s schedule is again brutal.
The Gators are the only team in the SEC facing the league’s three highest-ranked preseason teams (No. 3 Texas, No. 4 Georgia and No. 6 LSU), with the Georgia and LSU games away from home. The Sept. 13 trip to LSU is followed by a trip to No. 21 Miami the next week. In a five-week stretch from Sept. 13 through Oct. 11, which includes a bye on Sept. 27, Florida plays at LSU, at Miami, at home against Texas and at Texas A&M. The Gators’ annual showdown with Georgia in Jacksonville on Nov. 1 is followed by back-to-back SEC road games against Kentucky and No. 24 Ole Miss.
Wisconsin is a close second in this category. Luke Fickell and the Badgers could use a strong bounce-back season after losing five in a row to end 2024 and missing a bowl game for the first time in 22 years. Like Florida, Wisconsin faces six ranked teams, including four of the top 11 — at No. 9 Alabama on Sept. 13, home against No. 5 Ohio State on Oct. 18, at No. 8 Oregon on Oct. 25 and home against No. 11 Illinois on Nov. 22.
Easiest overall Power 4 schedule: Wake Forest
Jake Dickert takes over for Dave Clawson at Wake Forest and has his work cut out to get the program back into the upper tier of the ACC. But he faces only one preseason Top 25 team in 2025: SMU at home Oct. 25, with a bye the preceding week. The Deacons avoid Clemson, Miami and Louisville in the ACC. Their first four games are at home along with two of their last three games. A game at No. 24 Ole Miss was replaced by a trip to Oregon State, meaning there are no Power 4 nonconference foes on the Deacons’ schedule. Their only back-to-back conference games on the road are against Florida State and Virginia on Nov. 1 and Nov. 8, and those teams finished a combined 7-17 last season.
Missouri, coming off back-to-back seasons of at least 10 wins under Eliah Drinkwitz, has a schedule tailor-made to make it three straight seasons with double-digit wins. The Tigers’ first six games are at home, and they avoid Texas, Georgia and LSU in the SEC. Their toughest nonconference game is against Kansas at home.
Toughest overall non-Power 4 schedule: Kent State
This one doesn’t seem fair. Kent State went 1-23 over the past two seasons, fired coach Kenni Burns in April and replaced him with interim coach Mark Carney. Not only do the Golden Flashes have to play three Power 4 nonconference teams on the road, including No. 16 Texas Tech on Sept. 6 and No. 25 Oklahoma on Oct. 4, but they face MAC preseason favorite Toledo on Oct. 18 on the road.
South Florida’s schedule is equally daunting. The Bulls open the season against Boise State, Florida and Miami in successive weeks (Florida and Miami on the road) and face American Athletic Conference contenders Navy, Memphis and North Texas on the road.
Easiest overall non-Power 4 schedule: Liberty
The Flames are a repeat winner here, which means Jamey Chadwell’s club should be a prime candidate to be the Group of 5 representative in the playoff. Liberty doesn’t face any Power 4 nonconference opponents, although James Madison’s trip to Lynchburg on Sept. 20 will be a game to watch. The toughest Conference USA challenge might come in Week 2 against Jacksonville State on the road. Otherwise, Liberty received a favorable draw in the conference. In other words, not returning to the Conference USA championship game for the second straight season would be a big disappointment on the Mountain. Elsewhere, North Texas’ path to the American championship game is helped by avoiding Tulane and Memphis, and its toughest nonconference game is against Washington State at home Sept. 13.
Toughest Power 4 nonconference schedule: Clemson
This was a coin flip between Clemson and Stanford until quarterback Jake Retzlaff departed BYU. Now the trip to No. 10 BYU on Sept. 6 doesn’t look quite as daunting for the Cardinal, who end the season Nov. 29 at home against No. 7 Notre Dame.
So Clemson gets the nod. The Tigers open the season Aug. 30 at home against No. 6 LSU, then close the season Nov. 29 on the road against bitter rival South Carolina, which is ranked No. 13. Clemson also faces Troy, a top contender in the Sun Belt Conference, at home a week after the LSU opener.
Miami has three tough early-season matchups out of conference, albeit all three at home, against No. 7 Notre Dame on Aug. 31, South Florida on Sept. 13 and No. 19 Florida on Sept. 20.
Easiest Power 4 nonconference schedule: Penn State
It’s Penn State by a mile, or about as long as it takes to get to Happy Valley from just about any major airport. This should be James Franklin’s best and most balanced team, but one that will be untested when it rolls into Big Ten play against Oregon at home Sept. 27. The “warmups” come in the first three weeks of the season, all at home, against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova, followed by a bye week before facing the Ducks.
We can’t let Indiana completely off the hook. For the second straight season, the Hoosiers won’t play a nonconference game against a Power 4 foe. They open the season with three straight home games against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State (without Larry Bird). To be fair, Indiana is also the only Big Ten team that has to play Penn State and Oregon on the road.
Must-see nonconference games
To be clear, neutral-site games don’t count for this list:
• Auburn at Baylor, Aug. 29
• Utah at UCLA, Aug. 30
• Texas at Ohio State, Aug. 30
• Notre Dame at Miami, Aug. 30
• LSU at Clemson, Aug. 30
• Alabama at Florida State, Aug. 30
• Michigan at Oklahoma, Sept. 6
• Kansas at Missouri, Sept. 6
• Texas A&M at Notre Dame, Sept. 13
• Florida at Miami, Sept. 20
• USC at Notre Dame, Oct. 18
• Clemson at South Carolina, Nov. 29
Better be careful
Some sneaky good games matching Power 4 teams against Group of 5 teams:
• Toledo at Kentucky, Aug. 30
• James Madison at Louisville, Sept. 5
• UCLA at UNLV, Sept. 6
• Army at Kansas State, Sept. 6
• South Florida at Florida, Sept. 6
• Arkansas State vs. Arkansas, in Little Rock, Sept. 6
• Duke at Tulane, Sept. 13
• Arkansas at Memphis, Sept. 20
• Tulane at Ole Miss, Sept. 20
• BYU at East Carolina, Sept. 20
• San José State at Stanford, Sept. 27
• Boise State at Notre Dame, Oct. 4
Jeff Lebby, in his second season, will lead the Bulldogs against four playoff teams from a year ago at Davis Wade Stadium: Arizona State on Sept. 6, Tennessee on Sept. 27, Texas on Oct. 25 and Georgia on Nov. 8. If that’s not enough, the Bulldogs close the season at home Nov. 28 in their annual Egg Bowl matchup with No. 24 Ole Miss. Nearly 80% of Mississippi State’s roster is made up of first- or second-year players with 60 new players added for this season.
Easiest Power 4 home schedule: Texas
Only one preseason Top 25 team will visit DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium this season, and that’s at the very end when No. 23 Texas A&M makes the 105-mile trip to Austin. After opening against No. 5 Ohio State on the road, Texas plays San José State, UTEP and Sam Houston the next three weeks at home. Other than Texas A&M, Texas’ other two home dates the final month of the season are against Vanderbilt on Nov. 1 and Arkansas on Nov. 22. In an odd twist, Texas doesn’t play a game in Austin in the month of October. Florida, Kentucky and Mississippi State are all on the road, and the Red River Showdown game against Oklahoma, as always, is in Dallas.
Toughest Power 4 schedule away from home: Syracuse
Fran Brown was a first-year head coach last season, but he showed the poise and precision of a 20-year veteran in leading Syracuse to 10 wins, only the third time since 2000 that the Orange had won 10 games. As an encore, he faces an enormous challenge. Syracuse lost most of its key playmakers from a year ago and faces a brutal schedule away from home. The Aug. 30 opener against Tennessee in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium will be a quasi-home game for the Vols, and that’s just the start. The Orange play at No. 2 Clemson on Sept. 20, at No. 15 SMU on Oct. 4, at No. 21 Miami on Nov. 8 and at No. 7 Notre Dame on Nov. 22.
Easiest Power 4 schedule away from home: Missouri
The Tigers play eight of their 12 games this season at Faurot Field, and only one of their four road games is against a ranked opponent, No. 25 Oklahoma on Nov. 22. The other three are against Auburn (Oct. 18), Vanderbilt (Oct. 25) and Arkansas (Nov. 29). It’s never easy on the road in the SEC, but the Tigers are avoiding some of the most treacherous stops.
Toughest close to the season: Rutgers
Granted, Rutgers’ schedule outside the Big Ten is cushy (home games the first three weeks against Ohio University, Miami (Ohio) and Norfolk State), but the close to the season — ouch! Rutgers’ last six games are No. 8 Oregon at home Oct. 18, at Purdue on Oct. 25, at No. 11 Illinois on Nov. 1, Maryland at home Nov. 8, at No. 5 Ohio State on Nov. 22 and No. 1 Penn State at home Nov. 29. The Scarlet Knights are the only Big Ten team this season that has to play Penn State, Ohio State and Oregon.
Easiest close to the season: Illinois
Illinois is poised for another banner season under Bret Bielema with most of its key players back from the 10-win season a year ago. The Fighting Illini’s schedule is front loaded as they play four of their final six games at home, and three of the last four are home games against Rutgers, Maryland and Northwestern. The only road game in that stretch is at Wisconsin on Nov. 22. Illinois won’t face a preseason Top 25 opponent the last five weeks of the season.
Toughest three-game stretch: Oklahoma
The criteria for this category are three games in three consecutive weeks with no byes. Brent Venables and the Sooners will have a chance to build some momentum, but they face an October grind that could break any team. It starts with No. 3 Texas in Dallas on Oct. 11, followed by a road game at No. 13 South Carolina on Oct. 18 and then a home game against No. 24 Ole Miss on Oct. 25. If you want to stretch it out to four games, things don’t get much better for the Sooners. They go on the road the next week to play Tennessee on Nov. 1 in Neyland Stadium. Three of those four games are away from home.
Basking in Florida’s sunshine
Miami doesn’t play a game outside the state of Florida until traveling to face SMU on Nov. 1. Six of the Hurricanes’ first seven games are at home at Hard Rock Stadium, and a seventh is in Tallahassee against Florida State on Oct. 4. Included are three straight all-Florida affairs against South Florida on Sept. 13, Florida on Sept. 20 and at FSU on Oct. 4
Dabo and the SEC
Clemson’s Dabo Swinney gets another shot at the SEC to open the season in the Battle of Death Valleys on Aug. 30 against LSU. Clemson is 18-12 vs. the SEC since the start of the 2012 season, but the Tigers have lost seven of their past 10 games to SEC opponents, beginning with a 42-25 loss to LSU in the 2019 national championship game.
Mountains are calling
From just east of Marys Peak, Oregon State will travel across the country to the Blue Ridge Mountains to take on Appalachian State in Boone, North Carolina, on Oct. 4. Talk about two places that are hard to get to, but two gorgeous campuses.
Taking Saturdays off
Houston plays three Friday games (Sept. 12 vs. Colorado, Sept. 26 at Oregon State and Nov. 7 at UCF). The Cougars open the season on a Thursday at home, Aug. 28 vs. Stephen F. Austin.
Ryan Silverfield has guided Memphis to 10 or more wins in each of the past two seasons, a first in program history, and enters his sixth season amid big expectations in the American Conference with a roster full of new faces via the transfer portal. The Tigers are 11-2 at home the past two years, which bodes well for 2025. Just about all of Memphis’ toughest games are at home, including Arkansas’ visit on Sept. 20. In conference play, top contenders South Florida (Oct. 25), Tulane (Nov. 7) and Navy (Nov. 27) all come to Memphis’ Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
Avoiding campuses
Tennessee, for the 11th straight year, will not play a nonconference regular-season game on an opposing team’s campus. The last time the Vols played a nonconference road game (not counting the playoff game last season at Ohio State) on the opposing school’s campus was Sept. 13, 2014, when they lost 34-10 to No. 4 Oklahoma in Norman. The Vols did win at Pittsburgh in 2022, a 34-27 overtime victory, but the Panthers play their home games at the Steelers’ stadium, Acrisure Stadium, formerly known as Heinz Field, which stands along the Ohio River on the north side of Pittsburgh. The opener against Syracuse in Atlanta will be Tennessee’s sixth neutral-site game in the past 10 years.
Power outages
Houston, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, Ole Miss, Penn State, Rutgers, Texas Tech, Wake Forest and Washington don’t play any nonconference games against Power 4 opponents in 2025. Every school in the ACC except Wake Forest plays at least one Power 4 nonconference team, and nine schools (Boston College, Miami, NC State, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, SMU, Syracuse, Stanford and Virginia Tech) play two nonconference games against Power 4 foes. As ACC commissioner Jim Phillips likes to say, “Go ACC!” There are a few caveats. Some of the teams not playing Power 4 opponents are playing Oregon State or Washington State, and that includes Ole Miss. Wake Forest pulled out of the back half of its home-and-away series with Ole Miss last season, and the Rebels had to scramble, adding Washington State at the last minute.
Jet-lagged Huskies
The only time all season Washington plays back-to-back home games is against Colorado State and UC Davis to open the season. From there, it’s back and forth and all over the map for the Huskies. Consider: After playing at Washington State in Pullman on Sept. 20 (not an easy trip), Washington comes back home on Sept. 27 to face Ohio State, then hits the road the following week to play Maryland on Oct. 4, then back home against Rutgers on Oct. 10 (a Friday), back on the road against Michigan on Oct. 18, back home against Illinois on Oct. 25, and then after a bye, back on the road against Wisconsin on Nov. 8. Thank goodness for charter flights.
Vols flopping Dawgs and Gators
Georgia and Tennessee meet Sept. 13 in Knoxville, the earliest the teams have met in a season since 1995 (Sept. 9) when Kirby Smart was a freshman defensive back for the Bulldogs. The Vols won 30-27 in the final seconds on a field goal. Smart never beat Tennessee as a player, but he has won eight straight in the series as a coach. Tennessee, meanwhile, doesn’t face Florida until Nov. 22 at the Swamp, the latest those teams have played (not counting the 2020 COVID season) since 2001 (Dec. 1) when Tennessee won 34-32 in the Swamp in a game that was postponed because of the Sept. 11 attacks. Tennessee is a combined 12-38 against Georgia and Florida since 2000, 2-6 under Josh Heupel.
Hogs debuting on the SEC road … again
For the third straight season, Arkansas opens its SEC season on the road, the only school in the league having to play three straight openers away from home. The Hogs won 24-14 last season at Auburn and lost 34-31 at LSU in 2023. Arkansas opens SEC play this season at Ole Miss on Sept. 13. In fact, Arkansas plays its first two SEC games on the road, traveling to Tennessee on Oct. 11. Arkansas, Auburn and Vanderbilt are the only three SEC teams that have to play their first two league games on the road. All five of Arkansas’ road opponents this season won at least nine games a year ago, and four (Memphis, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas) won 10 or more games.
Border War returns
Kansas and Missouri will renew their series Sept. 6 in Columbia, the first time they’ve played since 2011. It’s the first of a four-game agreement to bring back the series, which dates to 1891, and will be Kansas’ first visit to Faurot Field since 2006, when Missouri won 42-17. Their 2011 meeting was at Arrowhead Stadium, with Missouri winning 24-10. The teams had met 93 years in a row before the series was not renewed following the 2011 game; at the time, it was the second-most-played rivalry in Division I-A football history.
Catching up with old teammates
With full-scale free agency alive and well in college football, more and more players from the transfer portal are going up against their former schools and teammates. Some notable examples this season:
• Duke quarterback Darian Mensah at Tulane on Sept. 13
• Ole Miss offensive guard Patrick Kutas vs. Arkansas on Sept. 13
• Oregon cornerback Theran Johnson at Northwestern on Sept. 13
• Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold at Oklahoma on Sept. 20
• Texas A&M receiver Mario Craver vs. Mississippi State on Oct. 4
• Ohio State tight end Max Klare at Purdue on Nov. 8
• Texas Tech defensive tackle Lee Hunter vs. UCF on Nov. 15
• Missouri receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. vs. Mississippi State on Nov. 15
• Oregon offensive guard Emmanuel Pregnon vs. USC on Nov. 22
• Oregon defensive tackle Bear Alexander vs. USC on Nov. 22
• LSU receiver Nic Anderson at Oklahoma on Nov. 29
Homecoming for Helton
Clay Helton gets a homecoming, sort of anyway. Helton, with a new five-year contract after winning eight games last season at Georgia Southern, returns to Los Angeles when the Eagles face USC on Sept. 6 in the Coliseum. With one game as interim head coach in 2013, Helton was USC’s official head coach for seven seasons before being fired early in the 2021 campaign. He was 46-24 overall and won the Rose Bowl following the 2016 season (52-49 over Penn State), which is the Trojans’ last appearance in the Rose Bowl. The next season, Helton guided the Trojans to the 2017 Pac-12 championship, which is their last conference championship.
They’re playing where?
It’s always interesting (and entertaining) to see Power 4 teams playing on the road at Group of 5 teams, especially when it’s on campus. Case in point: Bill Belichick’s second game as North Carolina’s coach will come Sept. 6 against in-state foe Charlotte in 15,300-seat Jerry Richardson Stadium. Some of the others this season: West Virginia at Ohio University on Sept. 6 and Oklahoma at Temple (Lincoln Financial Field), Iowa State at Arkansas State, SMU at Missouri State and Utah at Wyoming, all Sept. 13.
Not very Belichickian
Speaking of Belichick, he didn’t get a bad draw in his first season at North Carolina. And, yes, we know he’s not one to look ahead until it’s “on to whomever.” But the Tar Heels face TCU at home in the Sept. 1 Monday night opener, and if they win that one, it’s conceivable they could be 5-0 going into their home game against Clemson on Oct. 4. The Tar Heels get a bye week prior to the Clemson game after playing at UCF on Sept. 20.
Fear the Terps
Maryland dipped to 4-8 a year ago after three straight winning seasons under Mike Locksley. The Terps’ schedule in 2025 is manageable enough that they should have a chance to return to their winning ways. Their nonconference schedule consists of Florida Atlantic, Northern Illinois and Towson, all at home, and Maryland is the only Big Ten team that avoids Penn State, Ohio State and Oregon. The Terps have three ranked teams on their schedule, and two of those games (Indiana and Michigan) are at home.
Run-down Red Raiders
Texas Tech, ranked No. 15 in the preseason, is pushing all its chips in on this season and reportedly spent more than $28 million on its roster. Led by coach Joey McGuire, the Red Raiders are looking to reach double-digit wins for the first time since the late Mike Leach led Tech to 11 wins in 2008. But to do it, they’re going to have to push through a seven-week gauntlet of Big 12 games. That’s right, seven straight Big 12 games without a bye from Oct. 4 to Nov. 15 — at Houston, vs. Kansas, at Arizona State, vs. Oklahoma State, at Kansas State, vs. BYU and vs. UCF.
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David Schoenfield
It’s MLB trade deadline day!
General managers haven’t slept in days, and they’ve probably developed carpal tunnel from texting so much. Every player traded is guaranteed to make a major impact and every prospect looks like a future star … right?
OK, maybe not. But a couple of the trades that happen Thursday might decide a division race or clinch a playoff berth or maybe even key a World Series run. One of the no-name prospects might, indeed, turn into an All-Star.
As always, there are some intriguing names being floated in trade rumors. But this is a list of the biggest names most likely to be traded Thursday, so it won’t include the following players (who could still move):
Hopefully, we will get a surprise trade — or three — involving some of the above players. But as the 6 p.m. ET deadline approaches, here are the top 10 names to watch.
(Note: Unless mentioned, all players will be free agents at season’s end.)
Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers
Kelly might be viewed as more of a grind-it-out innings eater, but that feels like a bit of a disservice to his ability, especially since he’s pitching well with a 2.56 ERA over his past 10 starts, lowering his season ERA to 3.22. After getting knocked out early in his second start of the season, he has gone at least five innings in every start since then, usually going six or seven.
His superlative work in the 2023 postseason (2.25 ERA across four starts) is another reason he’s a fit with any contender. The Cubs could certainly use a starter to go with Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga, the Astros likewise could use a third strong starter to follow their two aces in Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. And while the Tigers already acquired Chris Paddack, they might need another starter with Reese Olson out for the season.
Best fits: Texas Rangers, Astros, San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers, Red Sox
O’Hearn’s versatility to play first base or a corner outfield slot is a big plus, although the Orioles have largely used him in a platoon role, which is a negative. He was hitting .333 with a .961 OPS through the end of May but hasn’t done much since then (.224 with four home runs). The Rangers have the worst OPS from their DHs in the majors, so O’Hearn fits there, and the Astros have been vocal about wanting a left-handed batter. The Brewers have popped up late in the game as a possible destination, although first baseman Andrew Vaughn has been red-hot filling in for the injured Rhys Hoskins.
Best fits: Tigers, Rangers, Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers, Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Cubs
Bednar is interesting for a couple of reasons: He’s having an excellent bounce-back season after a rough 2024, posting career bests in strikeout and walk rate, and he’s under team control through 2026. Santana is likewise under control through 2026 and has a minuscule 1.36 ERA, although he has a below-average strikeout rate and has relied on a low BABIP that could regress at any time.
As you can see from the list above, there are no shortages of teams in need of high-leverage relief, with some of those clubs viewing Bednar as a closer and others as a setup guy. The Tigers’ bullpen has struggled for a couple of months as has the Mets’ aside from closer Edwin Diaz. The Rangers have surged of late but have had few save opportunities, with the past couple having gone to journeyman Robert Garcia. The Blue Jays acquired Seranthony Dominguez but want another reliever, and the Dodgers might want an upgrade on Tanner Scott as their closer.
Best fits: Dodgers, Yankees, Rangers, Tigers, Blue Jays
The Twins already traded Jhoan Duran, so they might be understandably reluctant to trade another high-leverage reliever, especially one with the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the majors among pitchers with at least 40 innings. But the trade returns for relievers have been high so far and Jax, like Duran, is controllable for an additional two seasons, adding to his value. If the Twins can get a package similar to what they received for Duran, it might be difficult to say no — and there are several contenders still in need of bullpen help.
Best fits: Rangers, San Diego Padres, Giants, Reds
Ozuna’s trade value is diminished since he’s strictly a DH and has struggled for two months after posting a .426 OBP and .883 OPS through the end of May. Since then, he has hit .176 with a .600 OPS and has lost some of his DH at-bats to rookie catcher Drake Baldwin. But there’s no reason for the Braves to keep him, and the Rangers and Padres happen to have the worst DH production in the majors and could take a chance on an Ozuna hot streak. He did indeed homer Monday and Tuesday, so maybe one is coming.
Best fits: Blue Jays, Cubs, Astros, Tigers, Red Sox, Padres, New York Mets
Morton, 41, was arguably the worst starter in the majors the first month of the season, when he had a 10.36 ERA through his first six outings, losing all six. He rediscovered the feel for his curveball during a stint in the bullpen, and since rejoining the rotation in late May, he is 7-1 with a 3.66 ERA. His peripheral stats aren’t quite as impressive as the ERA suggests but he has given up three or fewer runs in 10 of 12 starts. His playoff experience doesn’t hurt either. How about a return to Houston, where he was the winning pitcher in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series?
Best fits: Philadelphia Phillies, Mets, Astros, Padres
Mullins is another from the long list of Orioles free agents. The question for teams that might need a center fielder, such as the Phillies and Mets: How good is he on defense? Statcast metrics say he has been pretty good, with a 77th percentile in outs above average (although with one of the worst arms in the majors, which does hurt his overall defensive value); but in terms of defensive runs saved, he is the worst center fielder in the majors at minus-17 DRS. Which metric to believe? Given the Orioles have the second-worst BABIP allowed in the majors, he might be a better fit in left field or off the bench (or as a potential DH option for the Padres).
Best fits: Pretty much any contender
One of the more intriguing pitcher popups of 2025, Houser began the season in Triple-A with the Rangers, where he had a 5.03 ERA, but then landed with the White Sox, where he has a 2.10 ERA in 11 starts, nine of those ranking as quality starts. That’s out of character with the rest of his career, but he is throwing harder. Plus, his curveball has been more effective than in the past — thus, he has using it more often. He could obviously be a candidate for a playoff rotation, if he keeps pitching this way, or a valuable multi-inning reliever.
Best fits: Phillies, Astros, Reds, Padres, Rangers, Blue Jays
Luis Robert Jr. is the bigger name the White Sox might trade, and maybe the Phillies or Mets take a chance on him to play center field, but Tauchman has hit much better than Robert — his OPS is nearly 200 points higher — and would demand a lesser return to acquire, thus making Tauchman more likely to be traded. He’s not an option for center field, although the Phillies could play him in left over the struggling Max Kepler, but he would be a nice DH option for the Padres or Rangers.
Best fits: Phillies, Padres, Mariners, Dodgers, Padres, Rangers
Laureano does have a reasonable $6.5 million club option for 2026 and given the excellent numbers he’s put up — .290/.355/.529 — he’ll be in demand, but could also return to the Orioles. He’s a right-handed alternative to the left-handed outfielders, so could work for a team that needs a righty bat like the Mariners or take over in left field for the likes of the Phillies (Max Kepler hasn’t been good) or Dodgers (Michael Conforto has been even worse). The Rangers could use him as a DH.
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