
NHL offseason trade grades: Report cards on Miller, Marner, Dobson, more
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Jul 1, 2025, 07:45 PM ET
The NHL’s offseason is off and running, and the trades have been piling up since the Florida Panthers raised the Stanley Cup for a second straight season.
That includes Chris Kreider heading to the Anaheim Ducks, Trevor Zegras joining the Philadelphia Flyers and Noah Dobson being traded to the Montreal Canadiens. During Day 2 of the draft, John Gibson was traded to the Detroit Red Wings.
Then the big one happened June 30, when Mitch Marner was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights, with several more deals to follow as free agency opened.
This page will be your home for report cards from Ryan S. Clark, Kristen Shilton and Greg Wyshynski on every major trade this offseason, with the most recent deals first.
July 1: Miller to the Hurricanes
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K’Andre Miller sneaks in a goal for Rangers
K’Andre Miller scores from an impressive angle for the Rangers vs. the Wild.
Long-rumored to be on the move, defenseman K’Andre Miller was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday. Miller signed an eight-year, $60 million contract as part of the deal.
In exchange, the Rangers acquired defenseman Scott Morrow, a conditional 2026 first-round pick and a 2026 second-round pick. The Rangers will receive the better of Carolina’s or Dallas’ first-round draft choice, with the picks being top-10 protected.
Miller is a 25-year-old former first-round pick (No. 22 in 2018) who has averaged well over 21 minutes over the past three seasons for the Rangers, at times playing top-pairing minutes with former Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox.
He’s the kind of player who most teams would see as foundational, and for a long time that was the way the Rangers seemingly viewed him. But now he’s a Carolina Hurricane. So what happened? Why did New York move on from Miller?
Inconsistency would be the primary reason. That goes for his puck management, his reaction time and his ability to stay within the Rangers’ structure. Miller’s skating, speed and passing ability are all well above average, but they weren’t enough to compel GM Chris Drury to commit that kind of term and money to him.
The Hurricanes acquire a defenseman with a high ceiling. Miller hit 43 points in 2022-23 but hasn’t reached that level again. He had seven goals and 20 assists in 74 games last season. Carolina’s defense corps has always been exceptional. Coach Rod Brind’Amour’s system can bring out the best in blueliners. The wager here is that his system and structure can patch over some of the holes in Miller’s game, while allowing him to find new levels in his overall game.
The last time the Hurricanes acquired an “expendable” defenseman from the Rangers was Brady Skjei in 2019, for a first-round pick. His game blossomed in Raleigh. The same hope is applied to Miller, who’s upside is much higher than that of Skjei. He’ll be put in a position to succeed. The rest is on Miller.
On July 1, the NHL released its compensation guidelines for restricted free agents who sign an offer sheet. If a team had signed Miller for an average annual value of $7.5 million, they would have owed the Rangers a first-, second- and third-round pick. The Hurricanes couldn’t have done that, having traded their third-round pick to the then-Arizona Coyotes for defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere in 2023, without the benefit of foresight. But it does inform the return here for the Rangers.
In essence, the Hurricanes traded two-thirds of that offer sheet compensation (a first and a second) and the Rangers got something much better than a third-round pick in Morrow. They also get the benefit of having the higher of two first-round picks between Carolina and Dallas, which they wouldn’t have received from an offer sheet.
Morrow, 22, had one goal and five assists in 14 games last season, his second in the NHL. He was pressed into service in the playoffs because of injuries on the Carolina blue line, and was clearly not ready for prime time, skating to a minus-5 while averaging 10:29 in ice time. He took a costly delay-of-game penalty in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals.
Like Miller, Morrow has a lot of upside. He’s a right-handed, puck-moving defenseman who had 39 points in 52 games in the AHL during 2024-25. A native of Darien, Connecticut, Morrow was the No. 40 pick in the 2021 draft. He’s a promising offensive defenseman. But as of now, he still needs to prove he deserves regular time in the NHL.
Obviously, the Rangers weren’t comfortable giving Miller the term he was going to get on this contract, after taking a two-year bridge deal in 2023. Whether that was the right or wrong decision depends greatly on how Miller fares with the Hurricanes over the next eight years. But this is arguably a better return than the Rangers would have received had some contending team signed Miller to an offer sheet. — Wyshynski
July 1: Arvidsson to the Bruins
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Viktor Arvidsson lights the lamp
Viktor Arvidsson lights the lamp
With less than half an hour before free agency officially started, the Edmonton Oilers created more salary cap space.
The defending Western Conference champions traded forward Viktor Arvidsson to the Boston Bruins in exchange for a 2027 fifth-round pick.
Here’s a quick glance at what it means for both sides.
Everything about July 1 goes back to salary cap space, and the Bruins still have $8.743 million after adding Arvidsson.
The Bruins also add a proven middle-six winger that could play a part in helping them improve a beleaguered attack that finished 28th in the NHL with 2.71 goals per game last season.
Arvidsson’s lone season in Edmonton saw him finish with 15 goals and 27 points. Going to Boston, however, could see him come closer to looking more like the winger that previously authored five 20-goal seasons — something he did twice in his first two campaigns with the Los Angeles Kings.
Adding Arvidsson also accomplishes something else for the Bruins should the front office elect to pursue this route: He has a chance to be moved at the 2025-26 trade deadline.
A player like Arvidsson playing on a one-year deal at a manageable cap hit could be quite valuable to contenders — and if the Bruins aren’t one by next March, opposing GMs will certainly be interested.
Shedding Arvidsson’s contract, which had one year left at $4 million, was a move solely designed to create cap space for a team that desperately needs to get as much of it as possible.
They’ve already taken on countermeasures — such as trading Evander Kane to create space, then using those funds to broker new contracts for Evan Bouchard and Trent Frederic.
But the Oilers still had other considerations to make in the event they wanted to have a strong chance at retaining pending unrestricted free agent forward Corey Perry and/or add elsewhere.
That’s what made Arvidsson a trade candidate, and why the Oilers now have $4.550 million in cap space, per PuckPedia, while also having 12 forwards under contract.
Arvidsson’s departure creates an opening in the Oilers’ middle six, with the idea that free agency could provide them a chance to strengthen that part of their lineup. — Clark
June 30: Marner to the Golden Knights
Mitch Marner has been traded to the Vegas Golden Knights — with an eight-year extension in place, sources told ESPN’s Emily Kaplan on Monday. Forward Nicolas Roy will go to the Toronto Maple Leafs in return.
The trade came on the eve of the free agent market opening and takes the top available target off the board. But how did both front offices do to get value in this swap?
This is a sizeable investment by Vegas on one of the NHL’s elite wingers. And the $12 million per year price tag wasn’t likely to be on the table at all if the NHL salary cap wasn’t going up to the extent it is in the coming years. The Golden Knights are taking advantage and paying extra to corral Marner before anyone else had a chance. Good move.
It’s no secret what Vegas is getting in Marner and why the long-term, big-money commitment makes sense. Marner has 221 goals and 741 points in 657 career regular-season games. He’s an elite playmaker, elevates his teammates and can navigate a puck through traffic in the slot area better than almost any skater in the league. Marner is also excellent on the power play and a superb penalty killer, giving him a covetable all-around game that should pair well with anyone with whom he plays in Vegas.
Where Marner consistently falters is the postseason. The play-driving, puck-shooting, defensive-minded forward from the other 82 games of the season seems to evaporate on the biggest stages and at the most critical moments. He has scored just 13 goals in 70 playoff games. And Marner has never had a worse series — at least in the end — than when Toronto flamed out in the second round against the Cup champion Florida Panthers.
The Leafs had a 2-0 series edge and then went into a free fall, culminating in a brutal Game 7 defeat. Marner registered one assist in that series’ final four games and had three shots on goal in the last five. He had a single takeaway through seven games. The reality is Marner hasn’t ever been a postseason game-changer. Vegas has to hope that won’t be the case in his new surroundings.
Giving Roy up in this process was a necessary evil for the Golden Knights, given he was the player Toronto most coveted. All Vegas can do now is hope their gamble for Marner turns out to be like hitting the jackpot.
This was the deal Toronto had to make.
Allowing Marner to walk away in free agency for no return would have been atrocious management by the Leafs. Because the writing was on the wall for well over a year that Marner wasn’t likely to be back in Toronto. Chalk it up to whatever reasoning you want — the piping hot spotlight of being a hometown kid starring in a hockey-obsessed town, the desire to land a richer contract than Toronto was willing (or able) to offer or frankly just a desire to roll the dice somewhere else and see if he could chase down a championship.
If Marner had wanted to remain a Maple Leaf, he could have made that happen long ago. Now, both sides turn the page.
The Leafs are getting a player they wanted in Nic Roy. Toronto struggled with its center depth down the stretch and into the playoffs last season despite acquiring Scott Laughton at the deadline. It took the veteran time to acclimate to his new surroundings, and coach Craig Berube didn’t much like sliding Max Domi over or elevating David Kampf up the lineup. Roy gives the Leafs some insurance as a third-line option, either at center or on the wing.
He has size (at 6-foot-4) and while he won’t be winning any footraces, he’s smart with the puck, plays hard and is good in transition. And there’s reasonable upside to Roy’s offensive game. (He collected 15 goals and 31 points in 71 games last season.) There’s good reason to believe he’ll be a great fit in Berube’s north-south system. — Shilton
June 29: Hague to Predators
Sunday night saw a late trade involving the Vegas Golden Knights. Just not that particular trade we have heard so many rumors about.
The Golden Knights moved defenseman Nicolas Hague to the Nashville Predators in exchange for forward Colton Sissons and defenseman Jeremy Lauzon, with Hague also signing a four-year extension worth $5.5 million annually.
Let’s take a look at how both sides performed.
What does it mean for the Golden Knights? What impact does this have on the reports that they are talking to the Toronto Maple Leafs about possibly trading for pending UFA forward Mitch Marner?
Re-signing Brandon Saad and Reilly Smith left the Golden Knights with just $5.615 million in cap space. It was enough to re-sign Hague, who was a pending restricted free agent, but not enough to address other areas without clearing space elsewhere.
So Golden Knights general manager Kelly McCrimmon found another way to use that cap space. Trading Hague saw them take on two players who cost a combined $4.86 million in cap space. That’s still less than what it cost for the Preds to sign Hague at $5.615 million annually.
PuckPedia projects the trade leaves the Golden Knights with only $757,857 in cap space. But the allocation of that space gives them another bottom-six forward in Sissons, while Lauzon could be a third pairing option, with The Fourth Period reporting Sunday that Golden Knights defenseman Alex Pietrangelo will undergo surgery and miss the entire 2025-26 season.
How does it impact a potential Marner deal? The Knights need to create much more cap space. Should Pietrangelo miss next season, it would hypothetically allow the Golden Knights to send him to LTIR, freeing up some room (Pietrangelo would earn $8.8 million next season).
The Golden Knights would still likely need to create more cap space to facilitate a trade for Marner, while also re-signing pending RFA winger Alexander Holtz and addressing other needs.
One of the questions facing the Predators entering free agency was whether they had enough depth beyond Roman Josi and Brady Skjei. Lauzon played only 28 games last season and reached 60 in a season only twice in his career.
The rest of the defensemen under contract for the Predators share a similar story. Andreas Englund played more than 70 games in a season only once. Jordan Oesterle hasn’t done it since 2018-19, while Justin Barron and Nick Blankenburg did it for the first time in 2024-25.
Hague, however, has played in more than 68 games in each of the past three seasons while also having an instrumental role alongside Zach Whitecloud in the Golden Knights’ championship back in 2023.
The question is whether Predators GM Barry Trotz paid too much for someone who has largely served as a third-pairing option, and whether he can consistently handle the demands of a top-four role.
It presents even more questions upon looking at Hague’s usage.
In Hague’s third season (2021-22), he averaged more than 18 minutes per game — something he would do again in 2022-23 and 2023-24. He was fifth in 5-on-5 minutes in 2021-22, but injuries led to him earning a greater role at times. As a result, he finished second in 5-on-5 minutes in 2022-23 and again in 2023-24, according to Natural Stat Trick.
An injury in November along with an illness later in the season limited Hague to just 68 games, and he ranked sixth in 5-on-5 ice time among Golden Knights defensemen.
Natural Stat Trick’s metrics also show that Hague had the second-lowest shot-share among Golden Knights defensemen who’ve logged more than 1,000 minutes in 5-on-5 play over the past three seasons.
But how will it work in Nashville knowing that he’ll likely consistently play on the second pairing while being asked to provide stability to a penalty kill that had 12 players log more than 69 minutes?
PuckPedia projects the Preds still have a little more than $13.519 million in cap space, which means Trotz could elect to add more defensive help through another trade or in free agency. — Clark
June 28: Gibson to the Red Wings
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John Gibson reaches back for incredible save
John Gibson reaches back for the swatting glove save to keep the Canucks off the board.
No, this is not a drill. After years of speculation, the Anaheim Ducks finally traded goaltender John Gibson.
The Detroit Red Wings landed Gibson, who was with the Ducks for more than a decade, in exchange for goalie Petr Mrazek, a 2027 second-round pick and a 2026 fourth-round pick.
Here’s a look at what the deal means for each side.
Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman had plenty of questions to answer this offseason after the club had missed the postseason for nine seasons. One of them is what he and his front office staff would do about their goaltending situation.
They tried different solutions in recent seasons. Ville Husso went from winning 26 games in his first season with the club (2022-23) to being traded to the Ducks during 2024-25. A tandem of Alex Lyon and Cam Talbot combined for a 0.899 save percentage, which is why the Wings traded for Mrazek before the deadline; he had a .902 save percentage in five games.
Lyon is an unrestricted free agent, whereas Mrazek and Talbot both had a year left on their contracts. It presented the possibly they could turn to Sebastian Cossa, their first-round pick from 2021, who finished with a .911 save percentage and a 2.45 goals-against average in the AHL. Some believe he could use another year of development as the Red Wings seek to avoid a 10th consecutive season without the playoffs.
Acquiring Gibson now provides them with a chance to have the stability that has eluded them. Injuries — along with the growth of Lukas Dostal — played a role in why Gibson was limited to 28 starts last season. But in that time, he won 11 games while registering a .912 save percentage — a strong figure compared to what the Red Wings experienced with their options in 2024-25.
The Red Wings could use Gibson and Talbot as a tandem while letting Lyon walk in free agency. The 31-year-old has two years left on his contract at $6.4 million annually, which also gives the Red Wings more time to develop Cossa in the AHL.
Per PuckPedia, Detroit now has $18.411 million in cap space to address a roster that has decisions to make regarding UFAs such as Patrick Kane and a three-player restricted free agent class that includes Jonatan Berggren.
Ducks GM Pat Verbeek had to eventually deal with the dynamic surrounding Dostal and Gibson. Building through the draft has been a significant aspect of the Ducks’ rebuild, and Dostal is one of the players who has embodied that movement.
In the past two seasons, Dostal grew from promising prospect to full-time NHL goaltender, with the 2024-25 season showing he could handle the demands of being a No. 1. The 25-year-old finished the season with 23 wins, posting a .903 save percentage in 54 games playing behind a promising but still mostly youthful defense that does include veterans Radko Gudas and Jacob Trouba.
Dostal’s age, usage and his performances are all factors that make him vital to the Ducks’ present and future. They will also play a role in what his next contract could look like, given he is an RFA this summer.
It isn’t that the Ducks don’t have cap space. They most certainly do, and a lot of it, which is why they appear to be in play for every major name in free agency. But they also have three RFAs to sign in Drew Helleson, Mason McTavish and Dostal.
The same applies next offseason, when Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Jackson LaCombe, Pavel Mintyukov and Olen Zellweger will all be due for new contracts as RFAs still under team control.
Even with the cap space the Ducks possessed at the start of the offseason, they had a chance to create more. That’s part of the reason why they traded Trevor Zegras earlier this week. Trading Gibson, and the last two years of his deal, now pushes their cap space to $38.188 million, per PuckPedia, which is the second most in the league behind the San Jose Sharks. — Clark
June 27: Coyle to the Blue Jackets
In need of salary cap space, the Colorado Avalanche created some Friday by trading Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood to the Columbus Blue Jackets.
In return, the Blue Jackets traded prospect forward Gavin Brindley, a 2025 third-round pick, and a conditional 2027 second-round pick to Colorado.
Let’s take a quick glance at what it all means for both teams.
The Avs secured a second-line center by signing Brock Nelson — added at the trade deadline — to a three-year contract extension worth $7.5 million annually. But that resulted in the Avs having just $1.2 million in cap space entering Friday, per PuckPedia. Given that the Avs have a six-player unrestricted free agent class — led by Ryan Lindgren — and it meant they needed to do something.
Coyle was one of the strongest candidates for a trade. His arrival at the trade deadline gave the Avs one of the best top-nine center dynamics in the NHL, behind Nathan MacKinnon and Nelson. But when a team is facing a cap crisis, does it make sense to pay a third-line center $5.25 million average annual value when there are more team-friendly options available?
Wood was another potential trade candidate, given he has four years left at $2.5 million AAV. Injuries and inconsistencies led to his scoring only 13 goals the past two seasons with the Avs — the same amount he had in his final full season with the New Jersey Devils.
But that also leaves the Avs needing to address their bottom-six forwards — in addition to possibly retaining Lindgren — along with anything else they seek to accomplish in free agency.
It’s possible Brindley could help with that at some point in the future. The 20-year-old was one of the top prospects in the Blue Jackets’ farm system, which is one of the strongest in the NHL. A second-round pick in 2023, Brindley scored six goals and 17 points in 52 games while playing his first professional season in the AHL. Before that, Brindley starred at Michigan, where he scored 25 goals and 53 points as a sophomore during the 2023-24 season.
At this point, the Blue Jackets have so much cap space that they can pick and choose what deals make sense. Especially if it involves working with a team that needs to create cap space like the Avs.
Coyle and Wood were a luxury in Colorado, but in Columbus they’ll strengthen the bottom six while allowing the front office to focus elsewhere in free agency.
Entering Friday, the Blue Jackets had six unrestricted free agent forwards, while Dmitri Voronkov is a restricted free agent. Adding Coyle gives them a third-line center with Sean Monahan and Adam Fantilli on the top two lines. Wood gives them a winger who can be used on the fourth line (or potentially higher); altogether, the Jackets now have 13 forwards who are either under contract or under team control as an RFA.
They also have more than $30 million in cap space, with the idea that some of that could be used on extensions for Dante Fabbro and Ivan Provorov.
Brinkley was one of their best prospects, but the Blue Jackets still have promising forwards in their system, including Cayden Lindstrom, Jordan Dumais and Luca Del Bel Belluz. — Clark
June 27: Dobson to the Canadiens
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Noah Dobson capitalizes on the power play
Noah Dobson capitalizes on the power play
Defenseman Noah Dobson was at the center of a trade Friday between the Montreal Canadiens and New York Islanders with the idea that both franchises are heading in different directions.
The Canadiens got Dobson after he had signed an eight-year contract extension worth $9.5 million annually with the Islanders on Friday. New York got forward Emil Heineman and both of the Canadiens’ 2025 first-round picks, No. 16 and No. 17.
Here’s how both front offices performed and what it means for each side going forward.
If there’s an opportunity to get a 25-year-old, right-handed-shooting, top-pairing, puck-moving defenseman who can play in every scenario — who is also packaged in a 6-foot-4 frame — that’s a move a GM should make.
But, it’s done with the full understanding that it’s going to cost quite a bit, and that’s what makes the decision by Canadiens GM Kent Hughes one that’s rather emphatic because of what it signals about his team.
Specifically, Montreal is serious about making its 2025 playoff appearance a regular occurrence, with the goal of winning a Stanley Cup in the near future.
Future. That’s the word at the heart of what this trade represented for the Canadiens. Having two first-round picks is a benefit. For teams in a rebuild, it’s a chance to build toward what they believe is a stronger future, while playoff teams — or those on the cusp — use them as trade chips to acquire someone who can make them better now.
Hughes took the latter option with this deal, and it provides Montreal with what appears to be one of the more enticing young defensive setups in the NHL.
Dobson, who has scored 10 or more goals in four straight seasons, adds to a group of young Canadiens defensemen that includes reigning Calder Trophy winner Lane Hutson, Kaiden Guhle and Jayden Struble. The Habs also have recent first-round picks Logan Mailloux and David Reinbacher in their system.
That’s six defensemen all younger than 25. Four of them are first-round picks, while the remainder were second-round selections (including Hutson). This is what’s called a problem. Or rather, it has the potential to create a problem because of what that collection could achieve over time.
But then there’s the actual “problem” facing Hughes now that he has Dobson under contract, in that the Habs are now $3.394 million over the salary cap (per PuckPedia), while having seven defensemen under contract or team control for 2025-26.
It’s going to force Hughes to decide which defenseman Montreal moves on from to clear cap space, while also having the necessary group to make the aforementioned playoff push. Veteran Mike Matheson has one year left on his contract at $4.88 million before he becomes an unrestricted free agent, while Alexandre Carrier has two years remaining at $3.75 million annually before he hits the open market.
Getting that situation handled sooner rather than later allows the Habs to gain more financial flexibility should they want to do more, although they also have a pair of RFAs in Struble and Jakub Dobes who are in need of new deals.
New Islanders GM Mathieu Darche spent six seasons in the Tampa Bay Lightning‘s front office, allowing him to appreciate the value of certain items. One of them is the value of building a long-term winner through the draft.
GMs running lottery teams need to have a level of honesty and understanding about the direction of their franchise. That’s what makes anything the Islanders do in Darche’s first offseason even more critical.
That’s not to say that Dobson couldn’t have been part of those long-term plans on Long Island. But there’s also something to be said for identifying the strongest possible value a player has for your franchise, and determining that this value is greater with a return like one that Darche got here.
What Darche received in exchange for a top-pairing defenseman in Dobson will play a significant role in shaping the Islanders for the next decade, if not longer.
Having the No. 1 pick was a starting point toward that future — and it’s likely he’ll add talented defenseman Matthew Schaefer with that pick. But by now adding two more first-round picks, he has even more options.
Darche and his staff might decide they want to keep both picks they acquired from the Canadiens, and draft three players. After all, they would be adding more to a system that, despite having 2024 first-rounder Cole Eiserman, is in distinct need of talent. Part of the reason for that is that the Isles have had four draft classes since 2018 (2020, 2021, 2022, 2023) in which they did not have a first-round pick.
Or will Darche look to repackage one or both of those picks in another trade, with the hope of doing something else he and his staff believe can set them up for even greater success over the long term?
Although the future is in focus, there’s also something to be said about the present and what it means now that Dobson is gone. The Islanders now have five defensemen under contract, and seven who are under team control, with a pair of pending RFAs in Scott Perunovich and Alexander Romanov. Tony DeAngelo and Mike Reilly are UFAs from the 2024-25 roster.
The Islanders have $20.934 million in cap space (per PuckPedia), which can be used to address their defensive needs along with whatever else they need to handle this summer; that includes re-signing Heineman, who is an RFA after scoring 10 goals and 18 points in 62 games during his first full NHL season. — Clark
June 26: Peterka to the Mammoth
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JJ Peterka lights the lamp for Sabres
JJ Peterka lights the lamp for Sabres
Two of the storylines to watch this NHL offseason were whether the Utah Mammoth could add at least one top-six forward to their roster, and if the Buffalo Sabres would part ways with restricted free agent JJ Peterka.
Wednesday night or early Thursday, depending upon the time zone, those narratives collided, with the Mammoth acquiring Peterka in a trade with the Sabres, with forward Josh Doan and defenseman Michael Kesselring going to western New York.
Let’s look at how both front offices performed in this swap, as well as what it means for each franchise moving forward.
In 2024-25, the Utah Hockey Club was a top-10 team in terms of shot share, shots per 60 minutes rate, and scoring chances per 60 — but finished 16th in goals per game. So there was a disconnect. With $20.357 million in salary cap space, a solution needed to be found for that problem.
And so the latest significant move for Mammoth GM Bill Armstrong? Landing Peterka in trade, then immediately signing him to a five-year extension worth $7.7 million annually.
Since Ryan and Ashley Smith purchased the franchise and moved the team to Salt Lake City, the Mammoth have taken a strategic yet aggressive approach. It started last year when they traded for a legitimate No. 1 defenseman in Mikhail Sergachev along with John Marino as part of a plan to revamp their blue line.
Peterka is a continuation of that need to take another big swing. In doing so, the Mammoth add a 23-year-old proven goal scorer who not only addresses their need for more goals but also fits into their long-term plans. After scoring 28 goals and what was then a career-high 50 points in 2023-24, Peterka responded with 27 goals and 68 points in 77 games in what would be his final season in Buffalo.
Trades can often be about creating more options for a team, and Peterka gives the Mammoth quite a few. They now have a top-six winger group that also includes Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther, and Nick Schmaltz. That amounts to a quartet of 20-goal scorers to play with centers Logan Cooley and Barrett Hayton, who also scored more than 20 goals last season, anchoring those top two lines.
Armed with what’s considered to be one of the strongest farm systems in the NHL, the Mammoth didn’t have to part ways with any of their top prospects to get Peterka. They still have Matias Maccelli — who they could seek to move one from in another trade — and still have $14.982 million in cap space, per PuckPedia.
Nick Bjugstad and Michael Carcone are their most prominent unrestricted free agents, while Jack McBain remains their lone restricted free agent. After landing a difference-maker at No. 4 overall in the draft on Friday — or using that pick to acquire another NHL-ready player instead — they’ll be able to use the majority of that remaining cap space to be active in free agency on July 1.
The most apt word one could use to describe what Sabres GM Kevyn Adams received in return for Peterka? Complicated.
Generally, a 23-year-old top-six forward who remains under team control is going to hypothetically attract a certain price. In some ways, the Sabres were able to get that by receiving a pair of NHL players in Doan and Kesselring. But there’s an argument to be made that the Sabres didn’t receive enough.
Missing the playoffs for the past 14 seasons has left the Sabres in the space between trying to end that drought, while having one eye on the future in case plans need to change (again). Although the Sabres do have one of the stronger farm systems, the Peterka trade presented an opportunity for them to add more — whether it be through draft capital or prospects.
That’s especially true when the player at the center of the deal was so important to the Sabres, given he was second on the team in points, third in goals, third in power-play points and third in ice time among forwards with more than 70 games.
It’s not like Adams walked away with nothing. Doan could carve a place as a top-nine forward. Joining the Sabres is a chance for Doan to find the consistency that eluded him in Utah. He played 28 games in the AHL last season in addition to the 51 games he played for the Hockey Club.
Kesselring gives the Sabres a third right-shot defenseman on their roster. He finished with more than 20 points, while logging more than 70 games, in consecutive seasons. He was also sixth among Mammoth defensemen in average ice time; like Doan, he could see a greater role in Buffalo.
Doan and Kesselring give the Sabres depth. They are also going to cost the club a combined $2.325 million in cap space, with both players having a year left on their respective contracts before restricted free agency. The Sabres now have $20.881 million in cap space, per PuckPedia.
Yet it still results in this question: Was a bottom-six/middle-six forward and a middle-pairing (at best) defenseman enough of a return for a top-six forward? Or should Adams have gotten more for a player that is addressing one of the Mammoth’s biggest needs, while leaving themselves in need of filling a sizable hole in the roster? — Clark
June 23: Zegras to the Flyers
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The highlight reel Trevor Zegras is taking to Philadelphia
With Trevor Zegras being shipped to the Flyers, relive some of his top plays from his last season with the Ducks.
Rumor finally became reality Monday with the Anaheim Ducks trading forward Trevor Zegras to the Philadelphia Flyers.
The Ducks moved Zegras, who has long been discussed as a potential trade target, to the Flyers for forward Ryan Poehling, a 2025 second-round pick (originally belonging to the Columbus Blue Jackets) and a 2026 fourth-round pick.
What does it all mean, and how did both front offices fare?
“Potential” is the word that’s going to be used the most to describe this trade.
It starts with the fact that Zegras gives the Flyers another top-nine center in addition to what they already have with Sean Couturier and Noah Cates, with the idea that Zegras has the potential to become their top-line center.
Zegras is a two-time 20-goal scorer who has also authored a pair of consecutive 60-point seasons. That could give the Flyers, who finished 24th in goals per game, another player who can score while creating opportunities for those around him.
At 24, he also potentially fits within the Flyers’ long-term plans. The Flyers were the NHL’s youngest team in 2024-25, with an average age of 26.09 years, according to Elite Prospects.
Again, the key word here is potentially.
Injuries and inconsistencies over the past two seasons created questions as to whether Zegras could return to becoming the player who had those consecutive 60-point seasons back in 2021-22 and 2022-23. Further, they led to inquiries about whether he’d return to or surpass those totals while remaining the Ducks.
Surrounding Zegras with wingers such as Tyson Foerster, Travis Konecny, Matvei Michkov and/or Owen Tippett could get him back on track. After all, at one point Zegras was among the league’s breakout stars and looked as if he was going to become one of the future faces of the NHL. He was chosen as the cover athlete for NHL 23.
Then there’s the added incentive that Zegras is in the final season of a three-year contract worth $5.75 million annually. He will remain under team control as a restricted free agent for the next two seasons before becoming an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2027-28 campaign.
Even after taking on Zegras’ salary, the Flyers will still have $15.141 million in cap space, per PuckPedia.
For all the questions the Ducks faced about holding on to Zegras, there appeared to be a rather large one looming:
Is it prudent to pay a third-line center more than $5 million annually when there are cheaper options available and other roster holes to fill?
Leo Carlsson — the No. 2 overall pick from 2023 — showed he could handle the demands of being a full-time, top-line center. He scored 20 goals and 45 points last season, giving the Ducks a two-way center packaged inside a 6-3, 205-pound frame.
Follow that with Mason McTavish, who was the No. 3 draft pick in 2021, scoring 22 goals and a career-high 52 points in a second-line center role.
McTavish led the Ducks in goals last season and finished second in points. Carlsson was third on the team in points. Getting that sort of production out of their top two centers made Zegras expendable for Anaheim.
Then there are the financial ramifications. Anaheim is projected to have a little more than $36 million in cap space this season, which appears to be quite a bit, and it is — until one looks at the future and how GM Pat Verbreek must tread carefully. Lukas Dostal, Drew Helleson and McTavish are restricted free agents in need of new contracts this offseason. Those deals will likely shape what necessary funds the Ducks possess to be active in unrestricted free agency starting July 1.
Looking at what they could do next offseason, however, is what made the trade more enticing. Zegras was slated to be part of a six-player RFA class that includes Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Pavel Mintyukov, Jackson LaCombe and Olen Zellweger, while Jacob Trouba will be an unrestricted free agent then.
That five-player RFA class and Trouba remain in place, so those decisions will have to be made. But instead of having to worry about what to pay Zegras, the Ducks could have a much lower price point to deal with when it comes to Poehling, a 26-year-old who scored 12 goals and 31 points in 2024-25. He has one year remaining on his contract worth $1.9 million before he becomes a UFA next summer. — Clark
June 12: Kreider to the Ducks
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Chris Kreider traded to the Ducks
Take a look at the stats and notes to know after the Rangers dealt Chris Kreider to the Ducks.
Could this be the start of something more?
That question could be asked of both the Anaheim Ducks and the New York Rangers after the first major trade this offseason. On Thursday, the Rangers sent Chris Kreider and a 2025 fourth-round pick (Anaheim’s own, previously acquired in the December 2024 Jacob Trouba trade) to the Ducks for center prospect Carey Terrance and a 2025 third-round pick (Toronto’s, acquired in the Feb. 2024 Ilya Lyubushkin trade).
Here’s a glance at what this means for both franchises along how they each performed.
There was a need to create salary cap space. There were the questions about production. There was also the fact that the Rangers could find a replacement elsewhere.
All told, there were many reasons that influenced the Rangers’ decision to move on from Chris Kreider.
Kreider scored 20 or more goals for the seventh straight season and for the 10th time in his career. That consistency is what came to define Kreider, but it became one of the reasons a move out of New York seemed likely.
Kreider turned 34 in late April, at the end of a season in which he scored 22 goals; however, that was a decline from what he had done the past three years. He scored 36 or more goals in each of the last three seasons, while averaging 69 points per campaign in that time. He finished with 30 points in 68 games this season, for a 0.44 points-per-game average.
With two years left on his contract worth $6.5 million annually, it became a numbers game for the Rangers.
Star goaltender Igor Shesterkin signed a new contract that starts in 2025-26 that ramps up his annual salary from $5.67 million to $11.50 million. There were also the series of in-season trades that Rangers GM Chris Drury made to get Will Borgen and J.T. Miller that led to them taking on an additional $12.1 million per year; Borgen signed a five-year extension worth $4.1 million annually, and Miller is entering the second of a seven-year pact in which he’ll earn $8 million annually.
This left the Rangers needing to find solutions to address a seven-player restricted free agent class led by K’Andre Miller, Zac Jones, Matthew Robertson, and Will Cuylle.
That’s not to say there aren’t questions about how they’ll replace Kreider’s production.
It’s what made the spring signing of Boston College star winger Gabe Perreault important, because it gives the Rangers a potential top-six option on a team-friendly deal, while allowing them to create the necessary space to address that RFA class — on top of everything else they may seek to achieve this offseason.
The Rangers now have $14.922 million in cap space after shedding Kreider’s contract, per PuckPedia. That provides the front office with more financial flexibility than it initially possessed, with the notion it might not be done.
Adding Terrance, who signed with the Ducks in April, brings a center prospect to a system that appeared to need one. Their strongest prospect down the middle, Noah Laba, signed with the club after three seasons at Colorado College, while Dylan Roobroeck’s first full professional campaign included 20 goals in the AHL.
Terrance, who was a second-round pick in 2023, had his third straight 20-goal season for the OHL’s Erie Otters; overall, he finished with 39 points in 45 games. He also represented Team USA at the IIHF World Junior Championships, where he had two goals in seven games before sustaining an injury.
Rebuilds are all about ending up in a better place, with the notion that all of them take a different path to reach that desired destination. The Kreider trade is a signal that the Ducks are remaining steadfast in an approach that has served them well so far, with the belief it could lead to them either reaching the playoffs or at least be in the wild-card discussion in 2025-26.
For all the conversations about how they have drafted and developed, the Ducks have also made a concerted effort to insulate that homegrown young core with respected veterans. It’s a veteran group that includes Radko Gudas, Alex Killorn, Frank Vatrano, and Krieder’s former Rangers teammate Jacob Trouba.
So what does this mean for the Ducks’ top-nine winger setup? Kreider adds to a group that has Sam Colangelo, Cutter Gauthier, Troy Terry, Killorn, and Vatrano. Not only does it provide the Ducks with goal scorers in general, but also with players who can grab those goals in a variety of ways.
And this is what makes the Ducks either fascinating — or terrifying — depending upon the perspective. Ducks GM Pat Verbeek just took on a forward with a $6.5 million cap hit, and PuckPedia projects he still has more than $32.188 million in available space.
This is what could make Katella Avenue a destination come free agency on July 1.
Of course, Verbeek must act responsibly. Lukas Dostal, Drew Helleson and Mason McTavish, who are part of the Ducks’ young core, are each pending RFAs that need a new contract. Then there’s what lies ahead next offseason, when Leo Carlsson, Jackson LaCombe, Pavel Mintyukov, Trevor Zegras, Olen Zellweger, and Gauthier will all need new deals at the same time.
Possessing that much young talent on cheap contracts creates financial flexibility. It’s why they were able to add Kreider for the price of a draft pick and a prospect in Terrance, who was expendable because of their center situation in the NHL and Lucas Pettersson, their second-round pick in 2024, in the system.
Ever since their rebuild started, the Ducks have been a franchise that’s been about trying to make progress by any means necessary. They’ve developed one of the NHL’s most promising farm systems in that time, and cultivated an expectation for their prospects. All the while, they’ve known when to make the moves like the one that got them Kreider.
Now what?
Finishing with 80 points for the first time since the 2018-19 season has them at a critical point. It’s part of the reason why they moved on from head coach Greg Cronin after two seasons to hire Joel Quenneville with the premise that they feel they can go further.
Because that’s what it means to play in the gauntlet that has become the Western Conference. For all the established contenders like the Edmonton Oilers, Dallas Stars, Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche, there are still other teams that can carve a path.
The Seattle Kraken did it in their second season back in 2022-23. A year later, the Vancouver Canucks did it in their first full season under Rick Tocchet in 2023-24. This season saw the St. Louis Blues return to the playoffs, while the Calgary Flames and Utah Hockey Club pushed until the latter stages of the regular season.
Anaheim finished 16 points out of the final Western Conference wild-card spot. But the gradual improvement the Ducks have shown — along with the fact they have made two of the bigger moves this offseason, believing they could do more — could see them knocking on the door to the postseason, or kicking right through it. — Clark
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MLB trade deadline updates, rumors: Division rivals eye Luis Robert
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July 29, 2025By
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The 2025 MLB trade deadline is just around the corner, with contending teams deciding what they need to add before 6 p.m. ET on Thursday.
Could Jarren Duran be on the move from the Boston Red Sox? Will the Arizona Diamondbacks deal Eugenio Suarez and Zac Gallen to contenders? And who among the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies will go all-in to boost their 2025 World Series hopes?
Whether your favorite club is looking to add or deal away — or stands somewhere in between — here’s the freshest intel we’re hearing, reaction to completed deals and what to know for every team as trade season unfolds.
More: Top 50 trade candidates | Trade grades | Fantasy spin | Ranking traded prospects
Jump to: Latest intel | Completed deals | Previous intel
This week’s MLB trade deadline buzz
July 29
Robert trade talk heats up: NL East rivals are vying for outfielder Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox, with Chicago apparently resolute in the stance that it’ll either receive a trade return the equivalent of what Robert’s potential is or hang on to him beyond the deadline. The White Sox hold a $20 million option on Robert next season, and they have tons of payroll flexibility moving forward, meaning that there really is no financial stress in the decision; Chicago doesn’t have to dump the contract.
A lot of Robert’s career has been filled with injuries or underwhelming performance, but he has always been viewed as a superstar talent. Luisangel Acuna and Mark Vientos are among the names that have come up in conversations with the Mets, and the Phillies have a farm system loaded with pitching. The Padres have also inquired about Robert. — Buster Olney
Braves moving Ozuna? Possibly to Padres? With little more than 48 hours to go before the deadline, there is movement developing around Marcell Ozuna, who has the power to reject any trade proposal. At least one team has had internal conversations about trying to work out a deal for the slugger.
It’ll be interesting to see if the Padres emerge as a possible landing spot for Ozuna. San Diego has some of baseball’s worst DH production this year — wRC+ of 82, which ranks 28th — and presumably, the prospect-strapped Padres wouldn’t have to give up much to get him. — Olney
Cards looking to deal Helsley: For a lot of this season, rival executives weren’t sure if the Cardinals would trade players at the deadline, because their perception was the organization wanted to have as good of a season as possible in John Mozeliak’s last year running baseball operations. They weren’t sure if closer Ryan Helsley, a free-agent-to-be, would be dealt. As recently as a few days ago, it was still unclear to some teams whether Helsley would be moved.
But on Tuesday morning, multiple executives said the Cardinals are exchanging names and appear devoted to moving Helsley, though the offers for him might not be as robust as they had hoped. Helsley’s strikeout rate is down this season, he’s allowed a higher percentage of homers, and his ERA has climbed. “He’s not having the lights-out season we’ve seen from him before,” said one evaluator. The Tigers, Mets, Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers, Phillies and Blue Jays are among the contenders looking for relief help. — Olney
Are the Rays adding or subtracting? Even they don’t know: The market is still stalled somewhat by teams deciding what they want to do. Tampa Bay is at the top of that list. The Rays have pitchers — both starters and relievers — that teams want. But being just on the outside of the wild-card race is causing some hesitation for the Rays. — Jesse Rogers
Yankees seeking relief — and lots of it: The Yankees continue to look for relief help. They have resources deployed throughout the league in search of bullpen arms. If there is a closer or setup man available, New York is scouting him. Think Ryan Helsley and work down from there. — Rogers
Speaking of relievers: Other teams believe the Colorado Rockies could make a killing in the current market if they dealt their best relievers — Seth Halvorsen, Jake Bird and Jimmy Herget. But some of those same teams view the current asking prices as unreachable, and they wonder if the Rockies will bend as the deadline gets closer. — Olney
Rangers ready to rock at the deadline: The Texas Rangers have won nine of 11 and rival executives report that the Rangers are aggressively looking to upgrade their bullpen before the trade deadline. — Olney
July 28
Mets in need of relievers: As we close in on the deadline, the Mets are looking to ideally add two relievers — a center fielder, and possibly an additional hitter to slot in a designated hitter, in the event that their current regular DH Mark Vientos is one of the players they need to include in a deal to address their needs.
White Sox CF Luis Robert Jr. is their top target for the center-field need, with Orioles CF Cedric Mullins as the second option, as Jesse Rogers has noted below. I’m told the White Sox have focused on Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Vientos and Luisangel Acuna in those Robert talks, with the last two being the most realistic options. — Kiley McDaniel
Bader could be a hot commodity: The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees are among the teams that have shown interest in Twins outfielder Harrison Bader, sources told ESPN. Bader is a plus defender batting .255 with 12 home runs and a .777 OPS in 93 games this season. His 2.0 fWAR ranks 30th in the majors among outfielders. He would effectively be a rental for a contender; he signed a one-year deal with $6.25 million guaranteed plus up to $2 million in bonuses that includes a mutual option for 2026. He is likely to opt for free agency to secure a better contract before his age-32 season.
Bader has played for both New York clubs; with the Yankees in 2022 and 2023 and with the Mets last season. The Yankees seek a right-handed-hitting outfielder with Aaron Judge’s flexor strain throwing a wrench into their season. The Mets could use an upgrade in center field. The Dodgers, meanwhile, could use Bader in center field, move Andy Pages to left field and struggling Michael Conforto (.194 batting average and .650 OPS) to the bench. — Jorge Castillo
Yankees in on Bader, Slater? The Yankees continue to work on adding bullpen help, according to rival evaluators, and they have talked with other teams about right-handed-hitting outfielders. Former Yankee Harrison Bader is among those discussed, as well as White Sox outfielder Austin Slater. The Yankees’ bullpen has been the weakest part of the team this year, and they will be among the contenders likely to add relief before the deadline. — Olney
Blue Jays — like most teams — need bullpen help: Toronto is in an increasingly commanding position in the AL East, and one of the advantages the Blue Jays have is the flexibility of their position player group. They have a handful of players who can change spots according to the day-to-day needs of manager John Schneider. Like so many contending teams, the Jays are working to add bullpen help, according to rival evaluators, from the enormous pool of available relievers. — Olney
Yankees eyeing a few Bucs: The Yankees’ focus is now on adding pitchers — both a starter and multiple relievers — after upgrading their position player group with the additions of Ryan McMahon and Amed Rosario over the weekend.
As Kiley McDaniel notes below, Nationals All-Star left-hander MacKenzie Gore is a possible option if the Yankees are willing to pay a steep price.
New York has also shown interest in the Pirates’ available arms, a source told ESPN. Right-handed starter Mitch Keller, left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson and right-handed relievers David Bednar and Dennis Santana are among the pitchers Pittsburgh could move before Thursday’s deadline.
Landing Keller, a quality midrotation starter, would also require a hefty haul since the veteran is under contract over the next three seasons for about $54.5 million. So would adding Bednar, who is one of the top relievers available and under team control through next season. — Castillo
July 27
Mets are scouring CF market — and Robert could play a big part: The New York Mets are keeping an eye on centerfielders Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles and Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox.
Robert returned to the lineup on Sunday as the designated hitter after missing the previous two games due to groin tightness. Before getting hurt, he was easily having the best month he has had over the past two seasons, hitting .351 with a .442 OBP in July. The White Sox have been waiting for an increase in prospect capital to move forward on a deal. It’s possible they finally get it this week; but they could always pick up the option in his contract this offseason and do this all over again next year. Robert’s production this month has teams intrigued. — Jesse Rogers
Not all White Sox players are on the table: The Chicago White Sox are holding out for a decent prospect return for starter Adrian Houser, who is likely to get moved by the deadline — unless teams just don’t believe in his 2.10 ERA over 11 starts. The Sox would love a 10th-to-20th-ranked prospect from an opposing organization’s farm system for him; though, teams are likely to lean toward the lower end of that instead of what Chicago prefers, closer to the higher end. The New York Yankees were among teams scouting Houser this weekend. He pitched another good one against the Chicago Cubs on Friday.
Meanwhile, depth outfielder Mike Tauchman isn’t likely to get traded. While Chicago still has another year of team control over him, the coaching staff has raved about his influence within its young clubhouse. He would be more valuable on the open market if he could play center field, but leg issues are a concern, and the White Sox aren’t likely to get much in prospect return for him. — Rogers
The market for one Marlins starter could be heating up: Teams unwilling or unable to meet the demands for Joe Ryan and MacKenzie Gore, two controllable starters who are more likely to stay put than move at this point, could easily pivot to Miami Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera. The 27-year-old is controllable through the 2028 season and has been on a really good run, posting a 2.47 ERA since the start of May.
Another Marlins pitcher, Sandy Alcantara, has been the big name bandied about on the trade front all year, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be moved. Alcantara has struggled in his initial return from Tommy John surgery and is controllable for an additional two years. And the Marlins — surging of late, with 20 wins in their past 28 games — can easily justify holding on to him if they are not blown away by offers. At this point, Cabrera seems more likely to be traded. — Alden Gonzalez
Gore’s market is stalled for now: Jesse Rogers noted below (July 24 update) that the Chicago Cubs are looking to add a starting pitcher with years of control and would consider including a young position player, though hopefully not a top prospect, to make that happen. MacKenzie Gore is one of those targets, and the key player the Washington Nationals are rumored to want in a return package is Matt Shaw, who isn’t yet on the table and graduated from prospect status this season with 71 MLB games.
The New York Yankees are also shopping for a starting pitcher and have some young position players of interest to rivals, but they aren’t keen on including either of their top prospects, George Lombard Jr. or Spencer Jones. If they change that stance, they could be a dark horse fit with the Nats on Gore. — McDaniel
Boston should target Tampa Bay’s Diaz: The Tampa Bay Rays‘ struggles over the past month have really surprised other teams — and the Rays’ staffers, too — and now they could shift to become dealers at the deadline. Tampa Bay first baseman Yandy Diaz would be an absolutely perfect fit for the Boston Red Sox. He’s making $10 million this year (the Red Sox would be on the hook for about a third of that), and he has a very attractive $12 million option for 2026. — Olney
Could Ozuna be one of the Braves on the move? The Atlanta Braves might be the most disappointing team in the big leagues this year, and now they are fully prepared to execute a minor sell-off before the deadline, moving relievers Raisel Iglesias (who is making $16 million this year) and Pierce Johnson ($7 million, with a $7 million option for 2026) and maybe others. Marcell Ozuna, benched recently when manager Brian Snitker decided to devote the DH spot to catchers Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin, has 10-5 rights and can veto any trade proposal, which means the Braves are unlikely to engage any team in trade talks about Ozuna. If another team calls the Braves, however, to ask about his availability, then they will ask Ozuna if he would accept a move. The market for DHs is extremely limited, and Atlanta would presumably have to eat at least some of the $5 million or so owed to the slugger for the rest of this season. — Olney
Look for Texas to now be aggressive at the deadline: If you were to line up all the MLB president of baseball operations and general managers on a spectrum from most competitive to least, the peers of Rangers GM Chris Young would probably pick him to be the most competitive — which is why other teams assume that with Texas surging in the standings of late, the Rangers will be adding before the deadline. A few weeks ago, the assumption among those other clubs was that the Rangers would become dealers and perhaps move Adolis Garcia and others. But they have won eight of nine since the All-Star break and start Sunday just a half-game out of the third wild-card position. And remember, in 2023, Texas limped into the postseason and wound up winning the World Series. — Olney
Can Mets find an ace at deadline? The market has been very thin in teams offloading, but according to sources, the Mets continue to look around to see whether there’s a match for a starting pitcher capable of taking the ball for a Game 1, Game 2 or Game 3 of a postseason series. Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks could be that guy, or maybe it’s Seth Lugo of the Royals, or the Padres’ Dylan Cease. Perhaps it’s one of the two big-time starters who will be under team control beyond this season, the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara or the Twins’ Joe Ryan. The Mets’ rotation was exceptional early in the year, before injuries and natural regression began to take a toll, and the team could use a boost in the front end of this group as they fight the Phillies for NL East supremacy. — Olney
Which way will deadline bubble teams go? The staredown continues as deadline week begins, with perhaps as many as a half-dozen teams waiting to declare their status. “This weekend is big for a lot of teams,” said one evaluator.
The Rays, who appeared to be gathering momentum a month ago, are now just a game over .500, and given the organization’s longstanding focus on maximizing the value of their players, some rival evaluators think they could now be considering dealing some pieces away.
The St. Louis Cardinals are two games over .500, with the industry waiting to see whether they will deal closer Ryan Helsley. The expectation is that they will, given the tough NL playoff landscape. The Tigers could be interested, maybe the Phillies, Mets, Dodgers or Yankees.
The Los Angeles Angels are now five games under .500, and the presumption is that they will eventually move some players before the deadline, but the Angels don’t always operate in the way teams typically do. Taylor Ward has drawn interest from other organizations. — Olney
Completed deal tracker
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Rays deal catcher to Brewers, get one from Marlins
The Milwaukee Brewers acquired catcher Danny Jansen from the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are also acquired catcher Nick Fortes from the Miami Marlins.
The Detroit Tigers receive RHP Chris Paddack and RHP Randy Dobnak from the Minnesota Twins for C/1B Enrique Jimenez.
Braves add veteran rotation arm
The Atlanta Braves acquired veteran starting pitcher Erick Fedde from the St. Louis Cardinals for a player to be named later or cash.
Yankees make another deal for infield depth
The New York Yankees acquired utility man Amed Rosario from the Washington Nationals for two minor leaguers.
Royals get outfielder in trade with D-backs
The Kansas City Royals acquired veteran outfielder Randal Grichuk from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for right-hander Andrew Hoffmann.
Yankees land infielder McMahon in deal with Rockies
The New York Yankees are acquiring third baseman Ryan McMahon in a trade with the Colorado Rockies.
Mets get bullpen help from O’s
The New York Mets have acquired left-handed reliever Gregory Soto from the Baltimore Orioles.
Mariners start trade season with deal for Naylor
The Seattle Mariners have acquired first baseman Josh Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks for left-hander Brandyn Garcia and right-hander Ashton Izzi.
Previous deadline buzz
July 25 updates
Will the Royals trade Lugo — or extend him? Seth Lugo is an intriguing name in the trade market, but rival evaluators don’t sense the Royals are especially motivated to make a deal. Kansas City could also use this moment to explore an extension with Lugo, to keep their deep well of starting pitching intact. — Buster Olney
Angels’ deadline plans coming into focus: Any confusion about whether the Angels will add or subtract ahead of the trade deadline has seemingly cleared up in recent days, with a four-game losing streak that has them five games under .500.
The Angels are telling teams their pending free agents are available, sources with knowledge of the situation said. That includes third baseman Yoan Moncada, utility infielder Luis Rengifo, starting pitcher Tyler Anderson and closer Kenley Jansen. Left fielder Taylor Ward, controllable through 2026, can also be had with the right deal.
The Angels famously never rebuild under owner Arte Moreno and are prone to adding even in times when they seem like long shots to contend — most notably in 2023, when they not only held on to Shohei Ohtani but also traded for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez before collapsing in August.
At this time last year, they tried to move the likes of Anderson and Rengifo but did not believe they would have received enough back to justify holding on to them through the following season. And so it is worth noting: Even if the Angels do decide to punt on 2025, their goal would be to contend again next season.
Any moves they make would probably be geared toward that. By trading away rentals, the Angels will try to use the trade deadline to add accomplished players who can help the team next year. — Alden Gonzalez
What the Astros might be looking for: The Astros’ best fit in a hitter is someone who could play second base or left field, and they can move Jose Altuve accordingly. Per FanGraphs, the Astros have a 94.5% chance to reach the postseason; they lead the Mariners by five games in the AL West. — Buster Olney
How Arizona could shape the trade deadline: The Diamondbacks informed other teams in the past that they would “probably” be dealing away players, but even after trading Josh Naylor to Seattle, it’s unclear just how far Arizona will go. If the D-Backs decided to go all-in on trading veterans, they could reshape their organization significantly, by moving free-agents-to-be Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and, of course, Eugenio Suarez.
The perception of other front offices is that Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick does not want to completely offload, especially with the Dodgers drifting back toward the pack in the NL West — and as of Thursday night, Suarez wasn’t even officially on the market.
The Diamondbacks, who reached the World Series in 2023 after winning just 84 games during the regular season, won their first three games after the All-Star break, but have subsequently lost three in a row. What some rival evaluators believe is that if the D-Backs keep dealing, it’ll be because of a nudge from the front office. Arizona has been extensively scouting other organizations in preparation. — Buster Olney
White Sox starter drawing interest from contenders: About a half-dozen or more scouts will be in attendance at Rate Field on Friday night when Adrian Houser takes the mound for the White Sox. He has compiled a 1.89 ERA in 10 starts for Chicago after being picked up midseason. Teams don’t believe they’ll have to give up a lot to acquire him, and he could make for a good back-end starter or depth piece for a contender. The White Sox are likely to move him at his peak, and Friday could be the final look for those who are interested. — Jesse Rogers
July 24 updates
Could Mets land this deadline’s top slugger? Eugenio Suarez could be an intriguing option for the Mets as they’ve gotten little production out of Mark Vientos at third base. And if things work out and Suarez wants to stay — and they want him to — he could also provide protection for the Mets at first base in case Pete Alonso moves on next season. The Mets rank 23rd in OPS at third, so why wouldn’t they inquire about Suarez, knowing they can hand the position back to Vientos in 2026 if they wish. — Jesse Rogers
July 23 updates
Houston is in the market for a third baseman: Add the Astros to the list of contenders looking for a third baseman. With All-Star Isaac Paredes expected to miss significant time because of what manager Joe Espada described as a “pretty serious” right hamstring strain, the Astros have begun poking around for available third basemen. One of them is the Rockies’ Ryan McMahon, who also has drawn interest from a few other clubs.
The 30-year-old represents a solid veteran option. McMahon is slashing .217/.314/.403 with 16 home runs, and the metrics indicate he has been one of the top defensive third basemen in the majors this season. He is under contract over the next two seasons for $32 million, so he wouldn’t be just a rental, which should raise the Rockies’ asking price. — Jorge Castillo
A big addition to the available deadline starting pitching options? A surprise name has emerged in the starting pitcher market: Dylan Cease, who will be eligible for free agency at year’s end. Perception of other teams is that the Padres are intent on making a push for the playoffs and would use Cease to help fill other roster needs. Mets, AL East teams, Cubs among teams that have talked about him. — Buster Olney
How Cubs are approaching deadline: The Cubs are looking for a starting pitcher first and foremost, but won’t part with any top prospects for rentals. They would be willing to trade a young hitter for a cost-controlled pitcher or one already under contract past this season. They are desperate to add an arm who can help while Jameson Taillon recovers from a calf injury. Bullpen games in Taillon’s place haven’t gone well. — Jesse Rogers
Will Twins trade top pitchers? Several high-profile teams are in need of bullpen help ahead of the trade deadline — including the Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers — and the Twins have two of the best available in Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. The sense is that at least one of them will be traded, but those who are looking for relief help expect the asking price to be very high, partly because both of them are controllable through 2027 and partly because the Twins’ uncertain ownership situation has clouded the approach with those who are not pending free agents.
The Twins are widely expected to trade outfielder Harrison Bader, super-utility player Willi Castro, starter Chris Paddack and lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. But Jax, Duran and young starter Joe Ryan are the ones who would bring back the biggest return. The Twins are said to be listening on everyone. But the team being up for sale since October, and in limbo ever since prospective buyer Justin Ishbia increased his ownership stake in the White Sox in early June, has complicated matters with longer-term players. — Alden Gonzalez
July 22 updates
An Orioles starting pitcher to watch: It seems very likely that Charlie Morton (3.47 ERA last 12 appearances) will be traded, within a relatively thin starting pitching market with a lot of teams looking for rotation help — the Padres, Yankees, maybe the Mets or Astros; a number of teams have expressed interest. In the past, Morton has had a preference to pitch for a team closer to the East Coast and his Florida home, but he doesn’t control that. O’s GM Mike Elias does. — Buster Olney
Will Cleveland deal All-Star outfielder? The player asked about the most on the Guardians’ roster is Steven Kwan, but given that he is two and a half years away from free agency, it’s unlikely he’ll be traded, according to sources. Kwan’s slash line this year: .288/.352/.398. He also has 11 stolen bases and has made consecutive All-Star appearances. — Olney
Braves not looking to move Murphy: Sean Murphy‘s name has been tossed around in trade speculation, but according to sources, he will not be available. Atlanta’s catcher is playing well this year and will be playing under a high-value contract for the next three seasons — $15 million per year from 2026 to 2028, plus a team option in ’29. And the Braves are set up well with the right-handed-hitting Murphy and left-handed-hitting Drake Baldwin perhaps sharing the catching and DH spots into the future. — Olney
Why the 2022 Cy Young winner isn’t the most in-demand Marlins starter: Edward Cabrera has become more coveted than Sandy Alcantara, who teams believe might take an offseason to fix. Alcantara’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is scary low — just 1.9 — and his ERA is 7.14. Cabrera, on the other hand, is striking out more than a batter per inning and his ERA sits at 3.61. The 27-year-old right-hander will come at a heavy cost for opposing teams. — Jesse Rogers
How Kansas City is approaching the trade deadline: The Royals have signaled a willingness to trade, but with an eye toward competing again next year — meaning they aren’t willing to part with the core of their pitching staff. Other teams say Kansas City is (unsurprisingly) looking to upgrade its future offense in whatever it does.
Right-handed starter Seth Lugo will be the most-watched Royal before the deadline, since he holds a $15 million player option for 2026 “that you’d assume he’s going to turn down,” said one rival staffer. That’ll make it more difficult for other teams to place a trade value on him: The Royals could want to market him as more than a mere rental, while other teams figure he’ll go into free agency in the fall when he turns down his option. — Olney
What the Dodgers need at the deadline: The Dodgers’ offense has been a source of consternation lately, with Max Muncy out, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman slumping, and key hitters tasked with lengthening out the lineup — Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edman and Michael Conforto — also struggling.
But the Dodgers’ focus ahead of the deadline is still clearly the bullpen, specifically a high-leverage, right-handed reliever. Dodgers relievers lead the major leagues in innings pitched by a wide margin. Blake Treinen will be back soon, and Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol are expected to join him later in the season. But the Dodgers need at least one other trusted arm late in games.
It’s a stunning development, considering they returned the core of a bullpen that played a big role in last year’s championship run, then added Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates in free agency. But Scott and Yates have had their struggles, and there are enough injury concerns with several others that it’s a need. — Alden Gonzalez
Which D-backs starter is most coveted? The Diamondbacks are getting as many calls — if not more — about Zac Gallen as they are for Merrill Kelly, even though the latter starting pitcher is having the better season. Teams interested in adding to their rotations still have more faith in the 29-year-old Gallen than the 36-year-old Kelly. — Rogers
Who are the White Sox looking to deal? Chicago’s Adrian Houser seems likely to move, as a second-tier starter who has performed well this season. The 32-year-old right-hander was released by the Rangers in May but has been very effective since joining the White Sox rotation, giving up only two homers in 57⅔ innings and generating an ERA+ of 226. Nobody is taking those numbers at face value, but evaluators do view him as a market option. The White Sox also have some relievers worth considering.
But it seems unlikely that Luis Robert Jr. — once projected as a centerpiece of this deadline — will be dealt, unless a team makes a big bet on a player who has either underperformed or been hurt this year. The White Sox could continue to wait on Robert’s talent to manifest and his trade value to be restored by picking up his $20 million option for next year, which is hardly out of the question for a team with little future payroll obligation. — Olney
Why Rockies infielder could be popular deadline option: Colorado’s Ryan McMahon is the consolation prize for teams that miss out on Eugenio Suarez — if he’s traded at all. The Cubs could have interest and would pair him with Matt Shaw as a lefty/righty combo at third base. — Rogers
Does San Diego have enough to offer to make a big deal? The Padres have multiple needs ahead of the trade deadline — a left fielder, a catcher, a back-end starter. How adequately they can address them remains to be seen. The upper levels of their farm system have thinned out in recent years, and their budget might be tight.
The Padres dipped under MLB’s luxury-tax threshold last year, resetting the penalties. But FanGraphs projects their competitive balance tax payroll to finish at $263 million this year, easily clearing the 2025 threshold and just barely putting them into the second tier, triggering a 12% surcharge.
Padres general manager A.J. Preller might have to get creative in order to address his needs. One way he can do that is by buying and selling simultaneously. The Padres have several high-profile players who can hit the market this offseason — Dylan Cease, Michael King, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez — and a few others who can hit the open market after 2026. Don’t be surprised to see Preller leverage at least one of those players, and their salaries, to help fill multiple needs. — Gonzalez
Which Orioles could be on the move? Not surprisingly, Baltimore is perceived as a dealer and is expected by other teams to move center fielder Cedric Mullins, first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn and some relievers. — Olney
Sports
Which teams take the next step in 2025? We have 11 candidates
Published
6 hours agoon
July 29, 2025By
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Bill ConnellyJul 29, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
No matter how we go about setting our preseason expectations for the 2025 college football season — polls, computer projections, pure gut instincts — we’re going to end up mostly right. We’re going to assume that the teams that were the best last season will be the best this season, and that’s going to bear out in most instances.
In other cases, however, we’re going to be hilariously incorrect. Take last season’s preseason top 10: Six of those teams ended up in the year-end top six and scored College Football Playoff bids, and two others were among the top three teams to miss the CFP. Very accurate! But then, preseason No. 9 Michigan and No. 10 Florida State fell from a combined 28-1 the year before to 10-15. Both finished unranked. They basically switched bodies, “Freaky Friday” style, with Arizona State and Indiana, who went from a combined 6-18 in 2023 to 24-5 with top-10 finishes and playoff bids.
Every season is mostly predictable except for a handful of absolute shocks. And the goal of this annual piece is to identify which of last season’s good surprise teams are most likely to sustain their gains and which of the bad surprise programs are most likely to bounce back. Using SP+ ratings and luck factors as our guide, we can usually pinpoint the likeliest teams for each category.
In last year’s edition of this column, the seven “most likely to sustain breakthroughs” teams I named went from a combined 49-41 with an average SP+ ranking of 53.9 to 60-32 and 40.6, respectively. Colorado, Colorado State and Miami won an additional 11 more games between them, while Colorado, Miami, Rutgers and Virginia Tech each improved by at least 14 more spots in SP+. Meanwhile, the six teams I named for the “most likely to rebound from a regression season” list went from a combined 27-47 with an 81.5 average ranking to 42-34 and 54.7. Five improved their win totals, and all six improved their SP+ rankings. Success!
The preseason poll rankings and final SP+ projections for 2025 are coming in August. But while we wait, let’s once again predict some of this coming season’s happier stories. Which of 2024’s unexpected breakthroughs might find even further heights? Which of last year’s disappointments are likeliest to bounce back?
Teams most likely to sustain 2024 gains
When our team surges to unexpected success in a given season, we like to think of this as the new reality. We’re good now! That’s never going to change again! Unfortunately, reality rarely agrees with that. Over the past 20 years, we’ve seen an average of 1.9 teams improving by at least 20 ratings points in SP+ and an average of 18.0 improving by at least 10 points. On average, these teams regress the next season 61% of the time, 32% by at least a touchdown.
These numbers haven’t necessarily changed in the 2020s, aka the transfer portal era. The rules of roster management have been completely altered, but since 2021 we’ve still seen 18.3 teams improving by 10-plus points in a given season. Interestingly, only 54% regressed the next year, 25% by a touchdown or more. We don’t yet know whether this is a small-sample effect or a genuine shift in the data, so I’ll still lean on the historic averages, but it’s something to watch.
In 2024, 16 teams improved by at least 10 points. Based on the averages above, we can expect about 40% of them — six or seven — to improve further in 2025. Only two were projected to do so in my most recent SP+ rankings, which means I’ll have to stray from the numbers to pull the list together. But after writing lengthy conference previews about each team, here are the teams I believe are the likeliest candidates to build on 2024’s surprise success:
2023: 3-9 record, 107th in SP+ (-11.3 adjusted points per game, or 11.3 worse than the average college football team)
2024: 11-3, 35th (+9.4)
2025 projection (as of May): 8.4 average wins, 22nd (+12.2)
From my Big 12 preview: “It’s hard to know what to do with a late-season surge. ASU was solid for about two-thirds of the season and outstanding for one-third, and while that wasn’t enough to earn the trust of SP+ — and a 6-2 record in one-score finishes will be tough to duplicate — enough of last year’s key contributors return to think that this could be a top-15-level team again.”
Because of all those close wins, it might be difficult for Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils to match last year’s 11-win total, especially without Cam Skattebo around to grind out tough-as-hell yards at times. But Skattebo is just about the only major departure. Quarterback Sam Leavitt should have an improved receiving corps, where Jordyn Tyson is joined by late-2024 big-play producer Malik McClain, veteran transfer Jalen Moss (Fresno State) and high-upside youngsters such as Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama). Meanwhile, the offensive line and a defense that also surged down the stretch are both loaded with seniors.
This is a team built for another run and further improvement on paper, even if the god of close games turns against it at some point.
2023: 3-9 record, 97th in SP+ (-8.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 8-5, 38th (+8.4)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.7 average wins, 35th (+7.5)
Again from the Big 12 preview: “Jake Spavital’s offense was magnificent. Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs, while backs Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass rushed for 1,699 rushing yards and 18 TDs. Baylor gained at least 20 yards on 8.7% of its snaps (10th in FBS) while gaining zero or fewer on just 27.7% (19th). That combination will score you lots of points. … The Bears scored 31 or more points nine times last year, and it would be a surprise if they did so fewer times in 2025. Big 12 contention, then, is up to the defense.”
Baylor won the last six games of the regular season, scoring an average of 12.1 points more than projected, and almost all of the reasons for the offensive surge return. It’s indeed up to Matt Powledge’s defense — which also improved in 2024, but only to 63rd in defensive SP+ — to determine the Bears’ fate. Experience won’t be an issue. Dave Aranda added 13 transfers to go with the 10 returnees who saw 200-plus snaps last year. And there are known playmakers such as tackle Jackie Marshall, incoming linebacker Travion Barnes (FIU) and nickelback Carl Williams IV, too. After rebounding into the SP+ top 40 last season, it sure looks like the Bears are built to crack the top 30 this time around.
2023: 3-9 record, 119th in SP+ (-15.2 adjusted PPG)
2024: 9-4, 87th (-4.0)
2025 projection (as of May): 7.7 average wins, 91st (-7.1)
From my MAC preview: “[Pete Lembo] engineered immediate improvement in his return to MAC life, and now leading rusher Al-Jay Henderson, leading receiver Victor Snow, three starting O-linemen and 12 of 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps all return. … From a pure height-and-weight standpoint, the depth chart should look like something from a power conference.”
Buffalo was extremely all-or-nothing last season, overachieving against SP+ projections by at least 11 points six times and underachieving by that much three times. But that’s a net gain! Even without any semblance of offensive efficiency, the Bulls fielded their best team in four years. This time around, they should have enough offensive experience to avoid quite as many three-and-outs, and maybe no Group of 5 defense returns a proven trio of disruptors in end Kobe Stewart, outside linebacker Dion Crawford and inside linebacker Red Murdock. SP+ projects UB as the third-best team in the MAC, but after a season-opening trip to Minnesota — not a gimme for the Golden Gophers — the Bulls are at least slight projected favorites in every game.
I wish I felt better about their quarterback situation, where either journeyman Ta’Quan Roberson or little-used backup Gunnar Gray is likely to start. But aside from maybe Toledo, no other MAC team brings this much upside to the table in 2025.
2023: 5-7 record, 75th in SP+ (-2.5 adjusted PPG)
2024: 10-3, 31st (+9.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 8.7 average wins, 19th (+14.3)
From my Big Ten preview: “The Illini won 10 games for the first time in 23 years, and [Bret] Bielema rang in 2025 by embarrassing Shane Beamer on national television. Illinois finished 16th in the AP poll, and now it leads the conference in returning production. … If experience produces sturdy play early in the season, look out. By the end of September, the Illini will have played relative toss-ups at Duke and Indiana and at home against USC. Win all three, and they’re going to be in the playoff discussion for quite a while. But it’s hard to get the breaks you need in close games for two straight years.”
Like Arizona State, Illinois could be another “improve on paper, regress in the win column” team depending on how long the good fortune in close games continues. But of the top four projected teams in the Big Ten, the Illini play only one and should win quite a few games by well more than one score. New go-to running back Aidan Laughery could enjoy a huge season, and if quarterback Luke Altmyer gets a good year from at least one transfer receiver — the most likely of the bunch: Hudson Clement (West Virginia) — this offense should be Illinois’ first top-50 attack in 15 years (!). I’m concerned about the remodeled defensive line, but coordinator Aaron Henry gets the benefit of the doubt. This should be a solid team.
0:42
Carson Beck: Joining Miami feels like ‘a full-circle moment’
Carson Beck joins “SportsCenter” to discuss growing up a Florida Gators fan and playing college football for some of their biggest rivals.
2023: 7-6 record, 28th in SP+ (+9.6 adjusted PPG)
2024: 10-3, 10th (+21.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 9.2 average wins, 12th (+18.8)
From my ACC preview: “After a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season. … I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, [Georgia transfer Carson] Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.”
This one’s definitely more about sustaining gains than prepping for another surge. You can only rise so much higher than 10th. But I do think Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes have a chance of matching last year’s general quality, albeit in a more balanced way: The offense will almost certainly regress a bit while the defense improves. If the latter matches or outpaces the former, voila, sustained gains!
With good health and better help up front, defensive line star Rueben Bain Jr. could have a huge year, and I really like the additions in the secondary, especially ultra-aggressive safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State). The Miami defense should have never been as poor as it was late last fall, but it will have a chance to make amends in 2025.
2023: 3-9 record, 91st in SP+ (-7.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 7-6, 51st (+4.9)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.1 average wins, 47th (+3.4)
From the ACC preview: “As delightful as they looked during their unbeaten start, they looked equally lost during an 0-6 finish. They more than doubled their win total in the most disappointing possible way. … [Desmond Reid] aside, most of last year’s most exciting players were freshmen and sophomores, and one can see how experience might sand down rough edges and make Pitt an ACC dark horse. But that late-season collapse was pretty ugly. It’s up to the Panthers to prove whether the first or second half of the season showed us the way forward.”
It’s hard to trust any Pitt prediction. The Panthers improved by five wins in 2021, regressed by six in 2023, then improved by four in 2024. In that tiny span, they have ranked as high as sixth in offensive SP+ and as low as 108th. They’re capable of anything. But last year’s offense jumped to 54th and would have risen even further if quarterback Eli Holstein had stayed healthy. With Holstein, Reid, a more experienced offensive line and big-time defensive disruptors such as linebacker Kyle Louis and end Jimmy Scott, this is at least a top-40 team. We’ll see about the “ACC dark horse” line above, but further improvement feels likely.
Teams most likely to rebound from a 2024 stumble
In a universe in which you’re measured by wins and losses, everything is zero-sum: If someone’s rising, someone’s falling. And the trend for collapses is almost identical to the trend for sudden surges. Over the past 20 years, an average of 1.8 teams have collapsed by at least 20 adjusted points per game in SP+, and an average of 16.9 have fallen by at least 10 points. Of those teams that stumble, 64% of them improve the next season and 36% by at least a touchdown. The trends of the 2020s have been relatively similar: Only about 14.5 teams have regressed by 10-plus points over the past four seasons — again, we’ll see if that’s a trend — and 68% have rebounded the next year.
Last year, two teams regressed by 20-plus points: the aforementioned Florida State Seminoles and Michigan Wolverines. Twelve others fell by at least 10 points. Averages suggest about 36% of these 14 teams — around five — will improve by a touchdown or more in 2025. Here are the five I think are most likely:
2023: 9-4 record, 45th in SP+ (+5.9 adjusted PPG)
2024: 5-7, 111th (-11.7)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.2 average wins, 94th (-7.3)
From my Mountain West preview: “A lost season became an encouraging one late: Over their last five games, the Falcons overachieved against projections by an average of 17.7 points per game, and after a 20-3 loss to Army dropped them to 1-7, they won their last four games, most impressively destroying Oregon State, 28-0. The full-season averages still weren’t great, but as with Michigan, Air Force basically saw its win total cut in half from the previous season but somehow still ended up in a good mood.”
Even with Air Force’s recent success — at least nine wins in four consecutive full seasons — it was easy to predict a collapse in 2024, as the Falcons had one of the lowest returning production averages in recent memory. It’s almost as easy to predict a solid rebound this year, mainly because it already started late last season. If junior Josh Johnson is half-decent at quarterback, the offense should get back on track with help from fullback Dylan Carson, big-play slot back Cade Harris and error-free center Costen Cooley. The defense has quite a bit to replace in the secondary, but veteran defensive tackle Payton Zdroik should ensure disruption up front. This team should at least climb back to 7-5 or 8-4.
0:52
FSU QB Castellanos stands by Alabama jab
Florida State quarterback Tommy Castellanos speaks to reporters about what he meant by his jab at Alabama during the summer.
2023: 13-1 record, ninth in SP+ (+19.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 2-10, 83rd (-3.2)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.8 average wins, 36th (+7.2)
Again from the ACC preview: “This was a collapse on the scale of Bobby Petrino’s last season at Louisville, Texas’ first season after 2009 BCS Championship disappointment and Notre Dame’s 2007 swoon under Charlie Weis. And it’s noteworthy that none of the coaches in charge during those collapses could right the ship. But [Mike] Norvell will try. … There are enough proven entities to assume the defense will bounce back. In fact, the collapse was so significant last season that we should assume some progression toward the mean everywhere. But how much of a rebound can you pull off after such a collapse?”
This is some pretty low-hanging fruit — if the Seminoles are average in 2025, that will qualify as solid improvement after last season’s disintegration. I’m not sure what to expect from a remodeled offense; new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has an awfully Malzahn-friendly QB in the speedy transfer Tommy Castellanos (Boston College) and new potential big-play receivers in Duce Robinson (USC), Squirrel White (Tennessee) and Randy Pittman Jr. (UCF), but it might be hard to get a rebuilt offensive line up to speed. Regardless, the defensive front six has some new playmakers, and again, the bar for improvement is incredibly low. I’m not sure how many games Norvell needs to win to save his job, but the Noles will almost certainly not go 2-10 again.
2023: 15-0 record, first in SP+ (+31.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 8-5, 26th (+10.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 9.8 average wins, 10th (+21.5)
From the Big Ten preview: “The Wolverines went unbeaten when scoring at least 24 points (national scoring average: 28.0), but they reached that mark in only six of 13 games thanks primarily to a black hole at the QB position. They ranked 91st in Total QBR and 131st — last nationally among non-service academies — in passing yards per game (129.1). … Either five-star freshman Bryce Underwood or veteran transfer Mikey Keene (Fresno State) will begin the season at QB for Moore’s second Michigan team, and it’s probably fair to assume that Underwood will finish it there. His first spring was up-and-down, but going from the aforementioned black hole to the best high school prospect in the country is quite the leap.”
Seeing Michigan projected 10th overall was a bit concerning, as the offense still has loads of questions. But I’d be surprised if the Wolverines didn’t have a top-10 defense, and the schedule features only one projected top-15 team, per SP+. And they won eight games and beat Ohio State and Alabama while getting almost nothing from the QB. Even if Underwood isn’t ready to lead a CFP team yet, a return to 9-3 or so and occasional actual passing yardage don’t seem like too much to ask.
2023: 3-9 record, 116th in SP+ (-14.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 1-11, 133rd (-25.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 3.4 average wins, 128th (-17.7)
From my Sun Belt preview: “What happens when you graft one-quarter of last year’s Sun Belt championship roster onto the worst roster in the conference? We’re going to find out! After signing more than 50 transfers in addition to the normal freshman/JUCO signing class, [Charles Huff] has almost completely flipped the roster in six months. … SP+ is setting the bar low because things like “recent history” still tend to matter more often than not. But as with Marshall, this is a total, unprojectable roster reset.”
The story of Southern Miss in 2025 could only take place in 2025 and no time before. Southern Miss was wretched last season, but almost no one’s left from that team. Meanwhile, quarterback Braylon Braxton, five receivers, four defensive linemen and eight defensive backs — including star corner Josh Moten — and quite a few others followed Charles Huff from Marshall to Hattiesburg.
I have no idea how to set accurate expectations, but as with Florida State, this is low-hanging fruit. It will be an improvement if the Golden Eagles go 3-9 and rank in the 120s. And with zero opponents projected higher than 71st in SP+, topping the 4.5 wins set at ESPN BET doesn’t seem outlandish.
2023: 14-1 record, 13th in SP+ (+16.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 6-7, 58th (+3.1)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.3 average wins, 39th (+6.4)
Again from the Big Ten preview: “If [Demond Williams Jr.] is genuinely good — and doesn’t take a million sacks — then there’s a legitimate chance for a second-year leap for the UW offense. He’ll have a relatively experienced line in front of him and a skill corps that includes 1,000-yard back Jonah Coleman (and a physical backup in sophomore Adam Mohammed), receivers Denzel Boston and Penn State transfer Omari Evans, and another sophomore in big-play tight end Decker DeGraaf. … Fisch generated lots of traction in his second season at Arizona, and it’s not hard to envision something similar happening at UW. But he’ll need to hit on a lot of transfers, and he’ll need his faith in a guy with 153 dropbacks wholly rewarded.”
In the past four seasons, Washington has bounced from 4-8 to 11-2 to 14-1 to 6-7. That’s enough to give you motion sickness, but the combination of Williams, Coleman, Boston and a semi-experienced offensive line should do good things. Plus, the defense has enough exciting new players — tackle Ta’ita’i Uiagalelei (Arizona), linebacker Xe’ree Alexander (UCF), corner Tacario Davis (Arizona), safeties CJ Christian (Florida International) and Alex McLaughlin (NAU) — that new coordinator Ryan Walters might get away with the aggressive man defense he usually prefers. Playing four projected top-20 teams could make 8-4 or so the ceiling this year, but improvement still seems likely.
Sports
‘Just a top-shelf human being’: Teammates, opponents remember Ryne Sandberg
Published
15 hours agoon
July 29, 2025By
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Jesse RogersJul 28, 2025, 11:30 PM ET
Close- Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
Chicago Cubs Hall of Fame second baseman Ryne Sandberg died on Monday at age 65. Sandberg, known for his power, speed and defensive prowess during his 16-year major league career, was the face of the Cubs during his 15 seasons with the franchise and a fan favorite throughout the sport.
Originally diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer in January of 2024, Sandberg was still around the Cubs as recently as spring training — and just as he did in his playing days, he made his presence felt with his signature combination of power and grace.
As the baseball world mourns the loss of an icon, those who knew Sandberg best shared their favorite stories about the Hall of Famer.
‘Ryno would be out there at 9 a.m.’
Sandberg was traded from the Philadelphia Phillies to the Cubs in January 1982 after struggling during his first call-up in Philly. A legendarily hard worker, Sandberg was willing to do whatever it took to make sure his stay in Chicago would go differently.
Larry Bowa, who was dealt along with Sandberg in the trade for veteran infielder Ivan DeJesus, remembers the hours Sandberg put in as he transformed from a light-hitting rookie in Philadelphia to a budding superstar in Chicago.
“I think about how he handled himself when he first got called up. He struggled out of the gate. I watched this guy not let it affect him. It might have affected him on the inside, but the way he handled himself on the outside was great,” Bowa said.
“Ryno would be out there at 9 a.m. [Manager] Jim Frey would tell him [to] hit every ball over the tarp and into the seats down the left-field line in foul territory. Hit it with authority over that tarp. Ryno looked at him like he was crazy. ‘I want every ball with authority over that tarp,’ Frey kept telling him. He did it for a week straight. That’s how he learned how to pull the ball.”
‘Just ungodly consistent’
2:27
How Ryne Sandberg will be remembered in Chicago
Jesse Rogers reflects on Ryne Sandberg’s career in Chicago after he died on Monday at the age of 65.
After his power stroke clicked, it didn’t take long for Sandberg to take his game to the highest level. He was named National League MVP in 1984 after hitting .314 with 19 home runs and 19 triples, stealing 32 bases and leading the Cubs to their first postseason appearance in 39 years.
Perhaps no one had a better view for Sandberg’s dominant campaign than his close friend, Cubs leadoff hitter Bobby Dernier. The two batted 1-2 in the Chicago lineup and earned the nickname “The Daily Double” as they combined to score 208 runs that season.
“Just ungodly consistent,” Dernier said of what made Sandberg so great. “And the style of game back then demanded a little bit of baserunning prowess and being capable of stealing bases and scoring a lot of runs. And so that was our style. He was tremendous.
“Pitchers were always paying a little more attention to me on the bases than him at the plate, and that was a big mistake and he’d take full advantage. He’d almost giggle about it, is what I remember in the dugout.”
Sandberg cemented his legacy during that season with a signature game against the St. Louis Cardinals on June 23, forever known in Chicago as “The Sandberg Game.” He hit two game-tying home runs off Hall of Fame closer Bruce Sutter in the ninth and 10th innings before the Cubs won the game in the 11th — in front of a national TV audience.
“After he tied it up, I ended up hitting the ball off the wall, but if mine goes out, it’s probably never called the Sandberg game,” outfielder Gary Matthews said with a laugh. “He was great at everything that he did. I hit behind him and he was always on base.”
‘He had a perfect swing for his home ballpark’
Sandberg hit 282 career home runs during an era of baseball where second baseman weren’t known for that kind of power, but he was more than just a long ball threat. Six of those home runs — the second most off an opposing pitcher — were hit off Hall of Famer John Smoltz, who recalled one memorable afternoon for Sandberg.
“I gave up two home runs to him in a game and I had a [autograph] card show after the game and everyone in the world knew I gave up two home runs to Ryne Sandberg,” Smoltz said. “One was an inside-the-park home run. Those fans at the card show reminded me of that.
“He had a perfect swing for his home ballpark. He had a flatter swing that worked great for the angles at Wrigley Field, especially when the wind was blowing in.”
Sandberg was more than just an offensive threat; he also won nine consecutive Gold Glove awards during his time with the Cubs and posted a 123-game errorless streak.
“I used to tell Joe Morgan, ‘This guy doesn’t have to take a second seat to anybody on defense,'” Matthews said. “Morgan would say Ryne’s uniform was always clean. I said, ‘Well, you have to dive because you can’t get in front of it! Don’t get on him for perfecting the backhand.’ In the end Joe said, ‘You’re right.'”
‘He’s in a class by himself’
For all of his accomplishments on the field, the way Sandberg handled himself as a competitor and away from the game is what many who knew him best will remember about him.
“He’s an outstanding human being,” Bowa said. “That’s what I think of. Such a good family guy. His mental toughness is off the charts. Don’t let people deceive you by that little laugh he has all the time. He wanted to win as much as anybody. I’ve been around Pete Rose, and Ryno is right there.”
Smoltz added: “He’s in a class by himself. You would never know he was one of the greatest players ever, just by the way he carried himself and the ‘aw, shucks’ type attitude.
“I love competing against greatness that has integrity and character like Ryne Sandberg had. The way he carried himself, the way he was as a person is what I think about. It sure was nice to see him represent the sport and the city he played for.”
“Joy,” Dernier said. “That’s the first thing, and way so many more happiness types of stories. And it’s a grin on my face to think about him. And yeah, right now it’s melancholy that we know he’s gotten called up to the real big leagues. But I’m glad I knew him and I loved him being underestimated.”
‘Oh, man, I loved Ryno, but he’s lucky he was that good at baseball’
Of course, there were a few moments in Sandberg’s career where he wasn’t as gracious. In the Cubs clubhouse, teammates saw a different side of the Hall of Famer — a playful troublemaker and prankster.
“We had those chairs directors they use making movies, held together by sticks,” Matthews said. “Ryno would always take the sticks out, put the seat back in, and daily I’d fall to the ground. He’d be over there snickering or walking away.
“Or he would load your cigarette up and make it explode in a non-harmful way. Then when you figured it out, he would put two of those in the pack. He thought that was the funniest thing.”
Despite that kind of back-and-forth, Matthews and Sandberg often golfed together.
“I would ask for a few strokes,” Matthews said. “He would politely say, ‘no strokes, play better.’ He would hit some balls you couldn’t believe. Ball after ball. He would hit one and know it’s a good one but he’d ask, ‘Do you think that was any good?’ And just smile at me.
“Oh, man, I loved Ryno, but he’s lucky he was that good at baseball,” Matthews said with a laugh.
“He’d stir the pot and then walk away and look over his shoulder,” Bowa added. “He’d be cracking up after getting us going. He was so quiet outwardly with you guys [media], but not with us.”
‘He made such an impact on me ‘
After his playing days, Sandberg served as the manager of the Philadelphia Phillies from 2013 to 2015 before returning to Chicago, often putting on a uniform as a spring instructor and imparting the lessons from his Hall of Fame career to a new generation of Cubs.
“I just think it’s cool that he’s somebody that has kind of done everything in our sport but still doesn’t approach the game with any kind of ego,” current Chicago second baseman Nico Hoerner said. “He doesn’t talk like he has the answers to everything or the conversation is never about him.
“He’s kind of softspoken, but then if you got him going on something he really cared about, it’s really cool to hear him open up, whether it’s routines he had or how he took care of his body or just fun memories with teammates or playing at Wrigley.”
Shortstop Dansby Swanson added: “Just such a top-shelf human being. He made such an impact on me even in my short time of being able to be around him. Just an unbelievable human being and someone that I’m very, very grateful to have met and spent time with, whether it’s talking about life or talking about ball.”
It’s those attributes, the ones the baseball world got to see on the field and the ones only his teammates were able to witness, that were missed in retirement. But his attitude about life stands out for everyone.
“We talked about a lot of things, about defense and offense, but we talked about life, too,” rookie third baseman Matt Shaw said. “When he first came up, he struggled a little bit early on and he was like, ‘No matter what happens, you just got to keep believing in yourself and keep going.’ And I definitely take that to heart, and that’s something that I definitely think about a lot — is that belief to just to keep going.”
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