
Big 12 preview: Colorado’s reload, Arizona State’s repeat bid, and the return of Utah and K-State
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Bill ConnellyJul 11, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
We’ve heard a lot about competitive balance lately. Nick Saban has been talking about it. Ted Cruz has been talking about it. People like me never really stop talking about it.
We all almost certainly have different ideas in mind when we use that term, but allow me to present to you a thought experiment: What if every conference were like the Big 12? What if half the games in the Big Ten went down to the wire in a given week? What if Vanderbilt or Mississippi State could randomly win the SEC out of nowhere? What if half the ACC were still in the mix for a conference title game spot in mid-November? That’s a world in which I wouldn’t mind living.
In 2024, only two of the four power conferences saw at least 43% of their conference games decided by one score: the Big 12 and the ACC. Only two had at least half their members finish within two games of the top of the standings: the Big 12 and the SEC. And of course, only one had an out-of-nowhere champion.
Preseason conference poll ranking for eventual 2024 champions
SEC: Georgia (first)
Big Ten: Oregon (second)
ACC: Clemson (second)
Big 12: Arizona State (16th)
The top five teams in last season’s preseason Big 12 media poll (Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Arizona) ended up going a combined 26-35 overall and 13-32 in conference play. Only Kansas State ended up bowl eligible. Meanwhile, the bottom five teams in the poll (Arizona State, Houston, Cincinnati, BYU and Baylor) went a combined 39-25 (26-19).
Arizona State was picked 16th out of 16 teams with good reason: The Sun Devils had gone just 3-9 the year before, one game out of the Pac-12 cellar. An early run of tight wins over mediocre-to-decent teams assured them of a surprisingly solid season, and a late surge brought them not only a conference title game berth but also a blowout win over Iowa State in said title game. They damn near beat Texas in the College Football Playoff, too. It was an incredible rags-to-riches tale, one that it seems the Big 12 is infinitely more likely to consistently deliver moving forward.
In response to last year’s incredibly inaccurate poll, the Big 12 elected to drop the preseason poll altogether, which is frankly silly. But fear not: Last year’s Big 12 SP+ projections were nearly as inaccurate! So, we can still make fun of the numbers in a few more months, right? It’s time to talk about the most unpredictable, wonderfully nonsense-heavy power conference in college football.
Let’s preview the Big 12!
Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another FBS conference, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules. Here are the MAC, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt, AAC, Indie/Pac-12 and ACC previews.
2024 recap
Indeed, the final 2024 standings were almost a complete flip from what was expected. And as always in this conference, close games told the tale.
Arizona State and Iowa State went a combined 11-3 in one-score finishes last season and therefore reached the Big 12 championship game. Utah and Kansas went a combined 2-10 in such games and surprisingly missed out on bowl bids altogether. Texas Tech still managed to disappoint a bit despite close-game magic — the Red Raiders were 6-1 in one-score games but only 2-4 in all others — and although BYU did the best job of mixing overall quality (17th in SP+) and solid close-game performance (4-2 in one-scores), late-season losses by four points (to Kansas, of all teams) and five points (to ASU) kept it out of the title game. And after all the chaos, ASU hit fifth gear late in the season and genuinely played like a top-10 team over its final three games.
Continuity table
The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very difficult to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.
Obviously the bar for what constitutes strong continuity has shifted pretty massively in recent years, but with eight of the top 22 teams in the returning production rankings and the best returning production average in the country, the Big 12 has more continuity than any other conference. Seven teams return at least 145 of last year’s starts, and five brought in more than 125 FBS starts from elsewhere.
Arizona State returns most of the reasons for last year’s late surge (Cam Skattebo aside), and Texas Tech both returns a lot and welcomes one of the nation’s most intriguing transfer classes. But Baylor, Kansas State, Arizona and Utah all boast high experience levels, and even at the bottom of the league, teams like Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Colorado are bringing in big transfer hauls that could make them either quite a bit better or worse. (Well, it probably won’t make Oklahoma State demonstrably worse — the Cowboys were quite bad by the end of 2024.)
2025 projections
With Kansas State finishing last season second in the conference in SP+ and enjoying top-15 returning production levels, the Wildcats start out atop the pack. The next six teams are all within 1.2 points of each other, and the eighth-ranked team (Baylor) is only slightly more than a touchdown behind K-State. Last year, 43% of conference games were decided by one score. I demand 60% or higher this year.
(Note: These projections are from my May SP+ update, which didn’t take into account recent developments regarding BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff. His future with the team remains uncertain at the moment, but without him BYU’s ranking would fall to around 32nd, and the Cougars’ average win total would be cut by 0.3 to 0.5 games. That’s not as much of a drop as I expected, honestly, but keep it in mind.)
Eight teams have at least a 6% chance at the Big 12 title, and no one has better than a 1-in-6 chance. And everyone has at least a 1-in-50 chance. Yes. Bring it on.
Five best games of 2025
Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under 10 points.
Iowa State vs. Kansas State in Dublin (Aug. 23). This might be my favorite Week 0 game yet. Not only do we get a Farmageddon matchup in just about the best dairy land in the world, but we also get one of the biggest games of the Big 12 season before Week 1 even rolls around.
TCU at Kansas State (Oct. 11). TCU and Baylor both surged in the late stages of 2024, though unlike Arizona State, they each did it when it was too late to make a mark in the conference title race. The Horned Frogs have quite a bit of reason for optimism, but by the time this Week 7 matchup is done, they’ll have played at both Arizona State and K-State. A conference title run might require a win at one or the other.
Texas Tech at Arizona State (Oct. 18). The defending champ against the offseason’s buzziest team. The Red Raiders took down ASU in Lubbock, Texas, last season 30-22, but it was well before the Sun Devils found fifth gear. Which team will be in proper midseason form for this one?
Texas Tech at Kansas State (Nov. 1). It appears the schedule makers decreed K-State and Tech to be the most impactful teams in this year’s title race — if they don’t win it themselves, they’ll decide who does.
Kansas State at Utah (Nov. 22). Another K-State game! Goodness. Utah went from title favorite to 2-7 in conference play last season, but a redesigned offense and better injury luck (and the resulting better close-games fortune) could produce a 180-degree turnaround. If so, this one could decide a spot in the title game.
Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders
Head coach: Chris Klieman (seventh year, 48-28 overall)
2025 projection: 18th in SP+, 9.0 average wins (6.3 in the Big 12)
In his first season as Kansas State’s starting quarterback, Avery Johnson threw for at least 250 yards four times and, not including sacks, rushed for at least 80 yards four times. His best performances were awesome enough that, in the Wildcats’ nine wins, they averaged 37.6 points per game. He gave us quite a few glimpses of the potential he was supposed to have when he came to Manhattan as the No. 3 dual-threat QB in the class of 2023 (and one of K-State’s most celebrated signings in quite a while).
He also had some absolute duds. He threw two picks in three of the Wildcats’ four losses. He went 12-for-28 against Iowa State. For as good as the good performances were, K-State averaged just 15.8 points in its four losses, three of which came in November as the Wildcats tumbled out of the Big 12 title race.
At this point, we’ve grown accustomed enough to transfers and quick fixes that it’s become easy to forget something: Johnson’s 2024 is how things are supposed to go. You’re not supposed to arrive in the starting lineup fully formed. With former K-State starter Will Howard leaving to pilot eventual national champion Ohio State, Klieman’s Wildcats rode with a QB who had massive upside and lessons to learn, and now he has learned a lot of those lessons. It’s hard to say Johnson is absolutely going to become a dynamite passer — he finished last season with 10 picks and a 58% completion rate — but he’s a human third-down conversion with his feet, and he’ll have some other exciting playmakers around him this fall. Running back Dylan Edwards averaged 7.4 yards per carry last season (he rushed for 196 yards in a bowl win over Rutgers), slot receiver Jayce Brown averaged 17.5 yards per catch, and among incoming transfers, running back Antonio Martin Jr. (Southeastern Louisiana) rushed for 1,228 yards, receiver Caleb Medford (New Mexico) averaged 18.7 yards per catch, and receiver Jerand Bradley (Boston College/Texas Tech) has averaged 14.0 yards per catch over four seasons.
With three starters gone up front, Klieman added four transfer linemen to pair with all-conference center Sam Hecht, and we’ll see if there are some glitches there. But if the blocking holds up — it usually does at K-State — and new offensive coordinator Matt Wells can coax a bit more consistency out of Johnson, this could be a top-10 offense.
The defense has been strangely consistent under coordinator Joe Klanderman, ranking between 25th and 34th in defensive SP+ for four straight seasons. The Wildcats were particularly aggressive last year, and they return four of the six players with at least six tackles for loss — ends Chiddi Obiazor and Tobi Osunsanmi and linebackers Desmond Purnell and Austin Romaine. Sacks leader Brendan Mott is gone, however, and if the pass rush regresses, that could add further strain for a secondary that got burned quite a bit in 2024 and lost four of last year’s top five. Senior safety VJ Payne (five run stops, six passes defended) is a keeper, and I’m intrigued by West Georgia transfer Qua Moss (nine TFLs, four passes defended), but it’s possible the defense becomes even more all-or-nothing than last year’s.
Head coach: Kenny Dillingham (third year, 14-11 overall)
2025 projection: 22nd in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.7 in the Big 12)
It was clear from the start of 2024 that Arizona State was better than expected. The Sun Devils were projected 79th in SP+ but overachieved against projections in five of their first seven games and had risen to 52nd heading into November. There was no reason to think of them as playoff contenders — they were 5-2 primarily because of tight wins over both decent (Kansas, Utah, Texas State) and bad (Mississippi State) teams — but this was already an undeniably successful campaign for a program that had gone 6-18 over the previous two seasons.
Arizona State obviously had grander plans. Over their final seven games, the Sun Devils overachieved against projections by 18.2 points per game, winning their last five regular-season games, thumping Iowa State in the conference championship and coming within one play of beating Texas in the CFP. Their incredible surge showed us exactly the kind of fun storylines that can emerge in the era of an expanded playoff, where teams can have a lot to play for even after a couple of losses.
Running back Cam Skattebo became one of the faces of the 2024 season, finishing with 2,316 combined rushing and receiving yards. We’ll find out exactly how important he was this fall because he’s just about the only star gone.
Quarterback Sam Leavitt was almost as good as Skattebo down the stretch. From November onward, he ranked third nationally in Total QBR despite major injury issues in his receiving corps; he rarely puts the ball in a dangerous spot, and he’s a fantastic scrambler. He gets leading receiver Jordyn Tyson back, along with tight end Chamon Metayer, but Tyson needed more help than he got last season, and the No. 2 leading returning wideout, Malik McClain, caught just two passes. Among McClain, veteran transfer Jalen Moss (Fresno State) and maybe young blue-chip transfers Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama), new weapons need to emerge out wide.
Skattebo was a spectacular security blanket with his efficient running and pass-catching abilities, but some combination of 2024 backup Kyson Brown, Army transfer Kanye Udoh and former blue-chipper Raleek Brown (injured for most of 2024) should be decent, at least. If nothing else, Brown appears to have equally dangerous receiving ability, and the blocking up front should be outstanding. Four O-line starters return, and Dillingham added senior tackle Jimeto Obigbo (Texas State).
Even with less obvious star power, the defense was just as responsible for ASU’s late-season surge as the offense, and of the 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps last season, a whopping 14 return. Tackle C.J. Fite made 12 run stops (a huge total for a 310-pounder), end Elijah O’Neal made 12.5 TFLs, and corners Keith Abney II and Javan Robinson combined for six interceptions and 17 breakups last season. The pass rush was merely decent and will need to improve, but depth and experience will be major strengths.
It’s hard to know what to do with a late-season surge. ASU was solid for about two-thirds of the season and outstanding for one third, and while that wasn’t enough to earn the trust of SP+ — and a 6-2 record in one-score finishes will be tough to duplicate — enough of last year’s key contributors return to think that this could be a top-15-level team again.
Head coach: Joey McGuire (fourth year, 23-16 overall)
2025 projection: 26th in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.6 in the Big 12)
Three years into Joey McGuire’s tenure at Texas Tech, things haven’t really changed. The Red Raiders went 7-6 and ranked 40th in SP+ in Matt Wells’ final season in charge, and they’ve averaged 7.7 wins and a No. 45 SP+ ranking since. A combination of good bounces and good close-game execution (with extreme fourth-down willingness) has helped McGuire’s Red Raiders win a vast majority of their one-score finishes, but Tech hasn’t really gotten better yet.
If that’s going to change at some point, it will probably be this year — because big checkbooks have brought a mega-class of transfers to town.
There are some solid offensive additions: USC running back Quinten Joyner (7.6 yards per carry), Miami (Ohio) receiver Reggie Virgil (19.9 yards per catch), Louisiana tight end Terrance Carter Jr. (10.4 yards per target), Incarnate Word receiver Roy Alexander (1,108 yards and 13 TDs), Miami (Ohio) left tackle Will Jados (second-team All-MAC). They should pair well with returnees such as veteran receivers Caleb Douglas and Coy Eakin (combined: 1,529 yards, 13 TDs), sophomore RBs J’Koby Williams and Cameron Dickey, and two returning line starters. Former Texas State offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich takes over at OC, and although quarterback Behren Morton hasn’t been amazing in Lubbock — in parts of three seasons, he has produced a Total QBR between 51.6 and 56.0 all three years — he’ll have his best supporting cast yet. That’s especially true if former blue-chip receiver Micah Hudson figures things out. He caught just eight passes as a freshman, announced his transfer to Texas A&M this offseason, then returned to Lubbock.
The defense might be the more interesting unit, and that’s a rare thing to say regarding Tech. New coordinator Shiel Wood improved Houston’s defense from 102nd to 54th in defensive SP+ in 2024, and he’ll have some incredible transfers to work with at every level of the defense. Defensive tackles A.J. Holmes Jr. (Houston), Lee Hunter (UCF) and Skyler Gill-Howard (Northern Illinois) combined for 28.5 TFLs, 32 run stops and 8 sacks last year, while edge rushers David Bailey (Stanford) and Romello Height (Georgia Tech) combined for 16 TFLs, 12 run stops and 9.5 sacks. Cornerbacks Dontae Balfour (Charlotte), Brice Pollock (Mississippi State) and Amier Boyd (UTEP) each defended (intercepted or broke up) at least nine passes, and big safety Cole Wisniewski (North Dakota State) defended 21 in 2023. Incumbent linebackers Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts (combined: 24 run stops) and nickel back A.J. McCarty also are solid returnees.
Per SP+, Tech has had one top-50 defense in the past 15 years. I would expect that to change in 2025. But are we talking 49th or, say, 29th? Is Morton good enough at QB? Will good close-games fortune continue even if Tech improves? McGuire didn’t sign an enormous transfer class by today’s standards. Can a more targeted approach pay program-wide dividends the same way massive overhauls at Arizona State and Colorado did? Whatever the answers, Tech is one of 2025’s most fascinating teams.
Head coach: Kalani Sitake (10th year, 72-43 overall)
2025 projection: 27th in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.7 in the Big 12)
It’s obviously not optimal writing a preview for a team that evidently has to open up its quarterback race to three pretty raw QBs in the middle of the summer. Juniors McCae Hillstead and Treyson Bourguet and freshman Bear Bachmeier have combined for 2,376 career passing yards, all at other schools (Hillstead came from Utah State, Bourguet from Western Michigan). With Jake Retzlaff almost certainly gone, one of these three will start. That’s not great from a general prognostication standpoint.
That’s fine, though, because I’m always wrong about BYU. Kalani Sitake’s Cougars have been all over the map in recent years, zigging when I thought they’d zag. After losing Zach Wilson & Co. after the brilliant 2020 season, then holding steady at 10-3 in 2021, I thought they were pretty much sure things, but they fell to 8-5 (decent) and 66th in SP+ (less so). They returned a ton of production in 2023 and looked like prime bounce-back candidates, but they slipped further to 76th and 5-7. With quite a bit of turnover — and an unknown juco transfer at quarterback — there wasn’t much reason to assume a sudden surge in 2024. But then came a sudden surge. Both the offense and defense improved dramatically, and the Cougars rose as high as seventh in the AP poll before settling for a mere top-15 finish.
So yeah, my BYU preview was going to be a giant shrug of the shoulders regardless of the QB situation. But here are some things I’m at least reasonably confident in saying:
• Linebackers Jack Kelly and Isaiah Glasker are dynamite. They combined for 21.5 TFLs, 20 run stops and 8.5 sacks last season. Of the 16 defenders who saw 200-plus snaps, they’re two of only eight returning — the top four defensive linemen are gone, as are three starters in the secondary — but they’re awesome.
• I like the incoming defensive line transfers. Keanu Tanuvasa (Utah) and Justin Kirkland (Oklahoma State) are both listed at 300-plus pounds (Kirkland is actually 340-plus), but they combined for 20 run stops and four pass breakups. They’re super-active big guys. Another 300-pounder, Anisi Purcell (Southern Utah), has disruption potential, too.
• Despite losing three starters, the offensive line is big and experienced, with five returnees who started at least two games, plus junior transfers Andrew Gentry (Michigan) and Kyle Sfarcioc (Southern Utah). Combined with the return of 220-pound running back LJ Martin, that should make for a solid, physical identity if one is required.
• One will probably be required, considering a new starting QB will be throwing to a receiving corps replacing three of last year’s top four options. Senior Chase Roberts is big and awesome, and both sophomore Jojo Phillips and junior Parker Kingston were excellent in small samples. But depth is tenuous at best.
• The schedule is interesting: three opponents projected 88th or worse, then three between 52nd and 60th, then four ranked 32nd or better. That will allow the Cougars a chance to figure themselves out, at least.
Head coach: Kyle Whittingham (21st year, 167-86 overall)
2025 projection: 31st in SP+, 7.9 average wins (5.3 in the Big 12)
In May, I looked at three types of luck or fortune that could lead to a turnaround (good or bad) the following season and came up with ways to grade teams in each category. For turnovers luck, Utah ranked 121st nationally. For close-game fortune, the Utes ranked 99th. For lineup stability, they ranked 128th. Add those rankings together, and they were quite comfortably the least fortunate team in the power conferences, second worst among all FBS teams (ahead of only Florida Atlantic).
Even with quarterback Cam Rising injured once again, they began the season 4-0, rising to 13th in SP+ with what ended up being their best defense in five years. But the hits kept coming: They ended up starting four different QBs at least once, along with 11 different receivers and tight ends and eight different linemen. The result: a collapse to 96th in offensive SP+ and a seven-game losing streak that included tight scores of 27-19, 13-7, 17-14, 22-21 and 31-28. They were 40th in SP+ but missed a bowl.
Long story short: Kyle Whittingham’s Utes are major turnaround candidates in 2025. But it will require a total offensive facelift to work out well. He hired creative offensive coordinator Jason Beck — who led New Mexico’s best offense in eight years in 2024 — and brought in three new quarterbacks (including New Mexico’s Devon Dampier), four running backs and six wide receivers. He didn’t need to sign more than one lineman because last year’s top six are all back, including All-America tackle Spencer Fano. Dampier is a dynamite rusher (1,187 pre-sack rushing yards and 19 TDs), and with backs such as Wayshawn Parker (Washington State) and NaQuari Rogers (UNM) and the aforementioned line, Utah should immediately have one of the best run games in the league. Passing? We’ll see. Dampier is hit-or-miss, but Ryan Davis (UNM) and Larry Simmons (Southern Miss) could be play-action deep threats.
Morgan Scalley’s defense dealt with its own injury issues, with 22 guys starting at least once. But the Utes still finished sixth in success rate allowed (13th rushing, 10th passing), allowing some pretty costly big plays but playing mostly excellent ball. It was maybe Scalley’s best coordinator performance to date.
Only 10 of those 22 part- or full-time starters return, including only three of nine linemen. Whittingham went mostly young with his incoming transfers, and I’m not sure of the defensive end depth beyond star Logan Fano. But linebackers Lander Barton (12 run stops) and Levani Damuni (injured in 2024) are excellent, and junior corners Smith Snowden and Elijah Davis could be ready for star turns. Utah defenses are always solid, but to clear the bar that was set last year, quite a few new linemen will need to break through. I do figure there’s some defensive regression coming, but offensive improvement could offset that. If that flips some close games, Utah will be a contender.
Head coach: Matt Campbell (10th year, 64-51 overall)
2025 projection: 32nd in SP+, 7.8 average wins (5.5 in the Big 12)
Iowa State continues to reach new heights under Matt Campbell. He has been in charge for both of the school’s AP top-15 finishes, including last year’s 11-win run, and while the Cyclones’ 112-year conference title drought continues, he has brought them to the Big 12 title game twice.
Wild swings in close-game fortunes have defined recent seasons: From mid-2021 through early 2023, the Cyclones lost an incredible 12 of 13 one-score games, but they have since won seven of nine. That has masked some otherwise remarkable consistency: In the past eight seasons, they’ve finished between 23rd and 37th in SP+ six times, with one year above (2020) and one year below (2022). Their No. 32 projection for 2025 makes sense, then, though with seven games projected within one score, they’ll once again be privy to the whims of the god of close games.
The defense has to replace its top three linemen and four of its top six defensive backs, but coordinator Jon Heacock gets the benefit of the doubt. He had to start 21 different guys at least once in 2024 but still produced a top-25 defensive SP+ ranking, and thanks in part to those injuries he’ll have one of his most seasoned linebacking corps. Kooper Ebel and Rylan Barnes combined for 11 TFLs and 21 run stops in 2024, and juniors Will McLaughlin and Caleb Bacon produced similar numbers in 2023. Safety Jeremiah Cooper and corner Jontez Williams are good, and incoming corner transfer Tre Bell (Lindenwood) looks the part. The pass defense should be strong again, but the run defense was far worse than normal last season, and this year’s line will be far less experienced. That’s not a great combination.
ISU’s No. 44 offensive SP+ ranking, though unamazing, was its best in three years. There was nothing particularly creative here — Taylor Mouser’s offense ran on standard downs, threw on passing downs and played at nearly the most average tempo in the country. But the Cyclones committed almost no penalties and suffered few negative plays or three-and-outs. Quarterback Rocco Becht captained a steady ship, with help from two physical running backs (juniors Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III) and an enormous line (average size of six returnees with starting experience: 6-foot-6, 322 pounds).
Last year’s recipe should be replicable, but it will require a couple of breakthroughs in the receiving corps. Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are both gone after combining for 167 catches and 2,377 yards, and the leading returning wideout, Carson Brown, had 11 catches. Between big-play transfer Chase Sowell (East Carolina), senior Daniel Jackson (injured in 2024) and untested youngsters, new playmakers must emerge.
With a schedule featuring five teams projected between 18th and 29th and only two projected worse than 70th, basically every game is winnable and about 10 are losable. Close games and new playmakers at receiver and D-line will tell the tale.
Head coach: Sonny Dykes (fourth year, 27-13 overall)
2025 projection: 29th in SP+, 7.5 average wins (5.3 in the Big 12)
It shouldn’t be possible, but somehow TCU, which made a run to the national title game in 2022, enjoyed an excellent 2024 season that was almost completely off the radar.
Following 2022’s blessed run — Sonny Dykes’ Horned Frogs were an excellent team (ninth in SP+) that was a little too successful in one-score games (6-1) — came a cursed 2023, in which the product regressed (35th) and all the good fortune went away (0-4 in one-score games). I’m probably boring you with my constant references to close games, but that was an epic reversal.
The Frogs started 2024 just 3-3 because of a mostly turgid defense. That meant they had gone 8-11 in their past 19 games. But they then won six of their last seven. The offense found a nice cruising altitude, and Andy Avalos’ defense went from allowing an average of 37 points over its first five FBS games to just 19 over its last seven. And it was like no one noticed. Despite finishing 9-4 (and 25th in SP+), they got just two votes in the final AP poll. And that dastardly Mark Schlabach doesn’t have them in his post-spring top 25 either. Unlike so many coaches out there, Dykes gets to play the “No one respects us!” card with actual truth behind it.
After a solid redshirt freshman season in 2023, Josh Hoover raised his game with 3,949 yards, 27 touchdowns and a 67% completion rate last year. He threw eight of his 10 interceptions in a glitchy five-game midseason span, but he was mostly safe down the stretch. He’ll have an experienced line in front of him, combining three 2024 starters with three experienced transfers (including San Diego State’s Cade Bennett, who came to Fort Worth in 2024 but missed the season with injury). The skill corps needed replenishing, however, after losing four of its top five pass targets and its leading rusher. Big-play man Eric McAlister (19.5 yards per catch) returns, and veteran receivers Joseph Manjack IV (Houston) and Jordan Dwyer (1,192 yards at Idaho) could immediately thrive. But things could go to a different level if exciting youngsters such as sophomores Jordyn Bailey and Braylon James or redshirt freshman Dozie Ezukanma emerge.
The defense returns 11 players who saw at least 200 snaps, but a lot of high-level playmakers — end NaNa Osafo-Mensah, linebacker Johnny Hodges, nickel Abe Camara, corner LaMareon James — are gone. Linebacker Namdi Obiazor and sacks leader Devean Deal are excellent, and the secondary, led by safety Bud Clark, is loaded with seniors. But it might again take Avalos a little while to generate proper disruption unless transfers such as tackle Ansel Din-Mbuh (Washington State), linebacker Michael Teason (Missouri State) and safety Kylin Jackson (LSU) are immediate hits.
Head coach: Dave Aranda (sixth year, 31-30 overall)
2025 projection: 35th in SP+, 6.7 average wins (4.9 in the Big 12)
If TCU wasn’t the most overlooked success story of 2024, Baylor was. After winning the Big 12 in 2021, Dave Aranda’s Bears went just 9-16 over the next two seasons and began 2024 just 2-4. But like the rival Horned Frogs, Baylor surged from there, winning six in a row. The defense didn’t play much of a role in the streak, but Jake Spavital’s offense was magnificent. Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs, while backs Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass rushed for 1,699 rushing yards and 18 TDs. Baylor gained at least 20 yards on 8.7% of its snaps (10th in FBS) while gaining zero or fewer on just 27.7% (19th). That combination will score you lots of points.
There’s no reason to think the offense will regress. Even with Leavitt’s late-2024 charge, Robertson was the best quarterback in the conference per Total QBR.
Robertson gets Washington and Pendergrass back, plus leading receivers Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins (combined: 1,321 yards, 15 TDs), and Aranda added two 600-yard transfer receivers (San Diego State’s Louis Brown IV and Texas State’s Kole Wilson) and enigmatic veteran Kobe Prentice (Alabama). The line returns four starters as well, including all-conference guard Omar Aigbedion. The Bears scored 31 or more points nine times last year, and it would be a surprise if they did so fewer times in 2025.
Big 12 contention, then, is up to the defense. Baylor collapsed from 18th in defensive SP+ in 2021 to 103rd in 2023, and while the Bears rebounded to 63rd last year, with a genuinely solid run defense, the pass defense was terrible, and they lost three games while scoring 28 or more points. Aranda kept third-year coordinator Matt Powledge but loaded up on transfers. Travion Barnes (FIU) and Phoenix Jackson (Fresno State) were two of the best blitzing linebackers in the portal, edge rusher Matthew Fobbs-White (Tulane) is exciting, and between Tulane’s Adonis Friloux (310 pounds) and Texas A&M’s Samu Taumanupepe (380!), Aranda added some spectacular size up front. But while returning corner Caden Jenkins is solid, Powledge has to hope that a few of the six incoming DBs thrive quickly. The most likely of the bunch, based on their stats and/or recruiting rankings: safety Devin Turner (Northwestern), blue-chip corner Calvin Simpson-Hunt (Oregon) and FCS corner Caldra Williford (Tennessee Tech).
Having such an experienced team could prove important, as the schedule starts with a bang: In the first four weeks, Baylor hosts Auburn and Arizona State and visits SMU. Kansas State and Utah also visit Waco — the home-road split here is pretty favorable — and if the defense can just hit a top-40 level or so, the offense might take it from there.
A couple of breaks away from a run
Head coach: Lance Leipold (fifth year, 22-28 overall)
2025 projection: 50th in SP+, 6.0 average wins (4.0 in the Big 12)
Here’s a surefire way to ruin your social media mentions for a few days: Compare someone to Bill Snyder. In last year’s Big 12 preview, I noted that (a) in the years before Lance Leipold arrived, Kansas’ general football awfulness rivaled that of Kansas State’s in the pre-Snyder 1980s, and (b) in his first three years on the job, Leipold had actually engineered a better product. I also mentioned that no one can duplicate what Snyder did long term, but the damage was done. My mentions were a trash fire for days.
I must have jinxed Leipold in the process. His 2024 Jayhawks, playing their home games outside of Lawrence while Memorial Stadium was undergoing renovations, slipped from 25th to 50th in SP+ and, with help from a run of close losses (1-5 in one-score games), fell from 9-4 to 5-7.
Of course, in Snyder’s fourth season (1992), K-State slipped to 5-6 and 55th in SP+. That brings the overall scoreboard to …
Leipold’s first four years at Kansas: 22-28, 51.0% average SP+ percentile rating
Snyder’s first four years at K-State: 18-26, 43.3% average SP+ percentile rating
Leipold still has the edge. Bring it on, K-State fans.
(No, but seriously, please don’t bring it on.)
In Year 5, Snyder’s program ignited. K-State jumped to 26th in SP+ in 1993, then 15th in 1994, then second in 1995. It will only get harder for Leipold to keep up, and a 2025 rebound will require Leipold, a culture-and-development guy through and through, to prove his portal chops.
Somehow, quarterback Jalon Daniels still has eligibility left and will get a chance to add to his 6,751 career passing yards and 1,401 career rushing yards. He’ll have his third coordinator in as many years, but it’s a familiar name in longtime QBs coach Jim Zebrowski. That’s not all the change, though. Only two other offensive starters return (all-conference center Bryce Foster and guard Kobe Baynes), and Daniels will be surrounded by transfers — running back Leshon Williams (Iowa), five new pass catchers including Ball State’s Cam Pickett, two big-play FCS guys (Columbia’s Bryson Canty and Albany’s Levi Wentz), a former blue-chipper in Alabama’s Emmanuel Henderson Jr. and five new linemen.
On defense, new coordinator D.K. McDonald inherits a unit facing even more change. Of the 15 defenders with 200-plus snaps, only five return, and four are linemen. (End Dean Miller and tackles D.J. Withers and Tommy Dunn Jr. are excellent.) The back seven will be led almost entirely by transfers; that includes a dynamite pair of linebackers in Trey Lathan (West Virginia) and Joseph Sipp Jr. (Bowling Green), but the incoming DBs are less proven. Nickel Syeed Gibbs (Georgia Tech) looks disruptive, but the pass defense could continue to be a liability.
Head coach: Brent Brennan (second year, 4-8 overall)
2025 projection: 60th in SP+, 5.4 average wins (3.4 in the Big 12)
It’s always difficult to trust a one-year surge. Arizona went just 10-31 with an average SP+ ranking of 98.8 from 2019 to 2022, and while that made the Wildcats’ 10-win 2023 season particularly exhilarating, it also meant that last year’s steep regression wasn’t totally surprising, even if most of us were more optimistic.
Quarterback Noah Fifita is back, having thrown for 5,827 yards and 43 TDs in two years, and sophomore guard Alexander Doost returns after producing the best blown-block rate on the team. I unfortunately just listed all of the semi-proven offensive returnees. Some transfers will have to thrive, and coach Brent Brennan certainly landed a few intriguing ones. Backs Ismail Mahdi (Texas State) and Quincy Craig (Portland State) are unique run-and-catch threats, slot receiver Luke Wysong (New Mexico) was heavily targeted last season, and two FCS transfers, Cam Barmore (Mercyhurst) and Javin Whatley (Chattanooga), combined to average 15.0 yards per catch. Seven new linemen are aboard as well, and most of them at least have excellent size. There’s potential here, and new coordinator Seth Doege engineered solid improvement in his lone season at Marshall last year.
The code for Arizona’s defense was pretty easy to crack last season: Do you have a decent offense? If so, you’re going to score lots of points.
Arizona vs. offenses ranked worse than 60th in SP+: 15.5 points per game allowed, 5.0 yards per play
Arizona vs. top-60 offenses: 39.9 points per game allowed, 7.0 yards per play
Now-former defensive coordinator Duane Akina played a ton of guys — 22 got at least 100 snaps — but only defensive end Tre Smith, nickel Dalton Johnson and linebacker Taye Brown did anything particularly disruptive, and of those 22 guys, only nine return.
Smith, Johnson and Brown all return for new coordinator Danny Gonzales, and as with the offense, I like quite a few incoming transfers — ends Chancellor Owens (Northwestern State) and Malachi Bailey (Alcorn State) and linebackers Blake Gotcher (Northwestern State) and Riley Wilson (Montana) combined for 51.5 TFLs and 22.5 sacks, corner Michael Dansby (San Jose State) is a proven entity, and both safety Jshawn Frausto-Ramos (Stanford) and corner Jay’Vion Cole (Texas) did quite a bit in few snaps.
Brennan needed a successful portal haul, and while the FCS-to-FBS transfers are sometimes hard to project, I like what he added. The extremes of Arizona’s last two seasons have been dizzying, but the Wildcats have averaged seven wins and a No. 50 SP+ ranking the last two years; that’s probably too high a bar to clear this year, especially with six top-50 opponents on the schedule, but I don’t think it’s impossible.
Head coach: Deion Sanders (third year, 13-12 overall)
2025 projection: 52nd in SP+, 5.5 average wins (3.3 in the Big 12)
If we ignore the incredible talents of Heisman winner Travis Hunter and the preposterously QB-centric offense Pat Shurmur crafted to showcase Shedeur Sanders, and we only look at the results, the first two years of the Deion Sanders era were pretty spectacular. Sanders inherited a program that, in 16 full seasons before his arrival, had finished with a winning record once. In his second year, his Buffaloes went 9-4. They were only 2-4 against SP+ top-50 teams, but 2024 was an undeniable success.
For better or worse, this year’s CU team is going to be almost completely different. Only six starters return, and in come another 30-plus transfers.
The first non-Sanders QB of the Sanders era: Kaidon Salter, who in 2023 and ’24 threw for 4,762 yards with 1,840 non-sack rushing yards and 66 total touchdowns at Liberty. He’s almost 180 degrees different from Shedeur Sanders — if you don’t have a decent designed-run package, you’re not maximizing his potential — but he’s good. A brand new receiving corps will feature potentially high-level transfers in Joseph Williams (Tulsa), Hykeem Williams (Florida State) and Sincere Brown (Campbell), among others, and returnees Dre’lon Miller and Omarion Miller have solid potential. At running back, Dallan Hayden didn’t do much last year, but I’m curious about Incarnate Word transfer DeKalon Taylor. Up front, well, it’s the third straight year with an almost completely new O-line. We’ll see.
The offense shined at times last year, but the defense’s improvement, from 113th to 45th in SP+, was a huge driver of success. We’ll see if second-year coordinator Robert Livingston can craft the same success with a mostly new unit. Ends Samuel Okunlola and Arden Walker (combined: 14.5 TFLs), tackle Amari McNeill and corner DJ McKinney are solid returnees, but another big transfer haul will tell the tale. There are some promising additions — linebackers Reginald Hughes (Jacksonville State) and Martavius French (UTSA) combined for 25 TFLs and 31 run stops last season, corners Tyrecus Davis (Wyoming) and Teon Parks (Illinois State) combined for 24 passes defended, and safety Tawfiq Byard (USF) is dynamite near the line of scrimmage.
Sanders is just 4-3 as a head coach when Shedeur Sanders isn’t his quarterback, and he had the most uniquely brilliant player in the country at his disposal the last two years. It’s a new era, and the Buffaloes drew the short straw in Big 12 play — they play six of the top seven projected teams in SP+. But the overall talent level is solid, and a Sanders team will always be interesting, one way or another.
Head coach: Mike Gundy (21st year, 169-88 overall)
2025 projection: 58th in SP+, 5.4 average wins (3.6 in the Big 12)
Kyle Whittingham and Mike Gundy have each coached at their current schools for 20 years and achieved unprecedented, sustained success. They both disappointed horribly last season, but while Whittingham’s Utah was relatively unlucky in 2024, Gundy’s OSU was just bad. The offense was dreadfully inefficient, only occasionally redeeming itself with big plays and great red zone execution. The defense, meanwhile, was unredeemable. Gundy had struck gold in the past, hiring Division II hotshot Mike Yurcich as offensive coordinator back in 2013, but hiring another D-II guy in 2023, defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo, bombed.
What do you do when your relatively inexperienced small-school DC fails? Look for the most experienced big-school guy you can find. Gundy found Todd Grantham.
Grantham has been in charge of great defenses (four SP+ top-15 units in the 2010s at Georgia, Louisville and Florida), and he’s had some absolute duds. He’s a “when in doubt, blitz harder” guy, and Gundy tried to bring him some portal pass rushers in ends Kyran Duhon (UTEP), Taje McCoy (Colorado) and Malik Charles (West Georgia) and linebacker Darius Thomas (Western Kentucky). He also got a couple of big tackles (Vanderbilt’s De’Marion Thomas, UCLA’s Sitiveni Havili Kaufusi), a tackling machine in linebacker Bryan McCoy (17 run stops at Akron) and lots of new transfers and jucos for the secondary. He basically stripped the defense down to the studs, as he needed to. Now we’ll see if it works.
On offense, OSU is going back to basics. Doug Meacham, a spread old-hand and Gundy’s receivers coach in the 2000s, comes back to Stillwater, and his first Cowboy offense will basically have 11 new starters, most of whom will come from a haul of 19 transfers. Running back Freddie Brock (Georgia State) is a nice run/pass threat, Christian Fitzpatrick (Marshall) and Jaylen Lloyd (Nebraska) are deep-route experts, tight end Oscar Hammond (North Texas) is good, and two Division II receivers, Terrill Davis (Central Oklahoma) and Cam Abshire (Emory & Henry), each had fantastic numbers at that level. I’m not sure I see any line standouts, and OSU is completely devoid of experience at quarterback, where it appears either sophomore Zane Flores or incoming redshirt freshman Hauss Hejny (TCU) will start. But again, an overhaul was needed. Now we’ll see if it works.
Gundy has steered out of skids before, and every time people start to call him washed up, he puts together a 10-win season. But he’s never had to fix something this broken.
Head coach: Willie Fritz (second year, 4-8 overall)
2025 projection: 59th in SP+, 5.8 average wins (3.6 in the Big 12)
Willie Fritz’s first season at Houston was, in a way, backward. The Cougars are used to good offense but collapsed to 118th in offensive SP+, while the defense, having ranked 94th or worse for five of six seasons, surged to 54th. They held half their opponents to 20 or fewer points but scored 14 or fewer points half the time.
Historically, Fritz is a great second-year coach. In his five previous head coaching stops (Blinn Community College, Central Missouri, Sam Houston, Georgia Southern and Tulane), he went from a combined 30-25-1 in his first year to 44-17 in his second. I would guess that his second UH offense will indeed improve dramatically. Slade Nagle, his former Tulane OC, will lead an attack that now features quarterback Conner Weigman (Texas A&M), running back Dean Connors (Rice), highly sought-after tight end Tanner Koziol (Ball State) and a bunch of line transfers.
Weigman, a former top-30 recruit, was hit-and-miss at A&M, but Fritz praised his athleticism and adaptability this week at Big 12 media days, and Connors is a dynamite yards-after-contact guy who also caught 62 passes in 2024. Slot receiver Stephon Johnson, running back Re’Shaun Sanford II and center Demetrius Hunter are probably the best of the returnees.
The main question for 2025 is if offensive improvement simply offsets defensive regression. Coordinator Shiel Wood left for Texas Tech and was replaced by Austin Armstrong, and of 13 guys who saw 200-plus snaps (a pretty tight rotation), only four return. Granted, returnees tackle Carlos Allen Jr., edge rusher Brandon Mack and safety Kentrell Webb are solid, but this is going to be a new unit with three transfer linemen, four linebackers and nine DBs. As with most Big 12 teams, I like a lot of the incoming transfers, from tackle Myles Parker (Tennessee Tech), who made 7.5 TFLs at 335 pounds, to linebackers Carmycah Glass (Louisiana) and Jesus Machado (Tulane), nickel back Wrook Brown (Wyoming) and corners Marc Stampley II (Georgia Southern), Will James (Southern Miss) and Zelmar Vedder (Sacramento State). Still, having to retool an encouraging defense this much isn’t optimal.
Houston plays only four projected top-50 opponents and, despite mediocre overall rankings, is a projected favorite in six games. The pathway to a second-year breakthrough exists, but only if Fritz turns out to be a strong transfer portal negotiator.
Head coach: Scott Frost (third year at UCF, 19-7 overall, first year of second stint)
2025 projection: 61st in SP+, 5.7 average wins (3.4 in the Big 12)
Under Gus Malzahn, UCF was something almost worse than bad: The Knights were perpetually mediocre. They constantly hinted at a level that they could never hold on to and went just 10-15 in 2023 and ’24. It made sense, then, that the school would want to reclaim old glories. Scott Frost led the Knights to a 13-0 record and national title claim in 2017 before returning to alma mater Nebraska and going just 16-31. Now he’s back in his old office in Orlando.
Big tackle Paul Rubelt is the only returning starter on an offense that welcomes 17 transfers, many of them rather explosive: Quarterback Tayven Jackson (Indiana) averaged 15.2 yards per completion and 5.7 yards per non-sack carry, running back Jaden Nixon (Western Michigan) averaged 6.4 yards per carry, tight end Dylan Wade (Maryland) had five catches of at least 25 yards, and smaller-school guys DJ Black (Limestone) and Chris Domercant (Chattanooga) combined for 1,579 yards at 20.5 per catch. Jackson is the presumptive starter, and the RB combo of Nixon and Myles Montgomery should complete a nice backfield. But the receiving corps and offensive line have quite a bit to prove in Frost’s mach-speed offense.
As part of his redemption tour, Frost brought another redemption candidate with him: coordinator Alex Grinch. Once a bright up-and-comer at Washington State, Grinch bombed at USC. He has proven he can thrive when he has what he needs on the edge, though, and at UCF he’ll have ends Nyjalik Kelly and Malachi Lawrence (combined: 17 TFLs) and a potentially dynamite transfer in sophomore Sincere Edwards (six TFLs at Pitt). Among linebackers Keli Lawson (Virginia Tech), Lewis Carter (Oklahoma) and Cole Kozlowski (Colgate), he should find a nice tackling machine in the middle, and the cornerback haul of Jayden Bellamy (Syracuse), DJ Bell (Memphis), Jyaire Brown (LSU) and Isaiah Reed (Brown) should produce two keepers.
Overall, UCF should have plenty of explosive athletes, a good run game and a good pass rush. Like pretty much everyone here at the bottom, the Knights could find just the right alchemy to make a sudden push, but someone in this conference has to lose games, and UCF lost quite a few in 2024.
Head coach: Scott Satterfield (third year, 8-16 overall)
2025 projection: 66th in SP+, 5.3 average wins (3.2 in the Big 12)
Luke Fickell went an incredible 53-11 in his last five seasons in charge but left for Wisconsin as Cincy was making the move to the Big 12; successor Scott Satterfield had matched that number of losses by the end of his second September.
The Bearcats did improve in Year 2, though not as much as they probably hoped. The offense didn’t make nearly enough big plays but was pretty efficient, especially through the air. With quarterback Brendan Sorsby and tight end Joe Royer returning, that efficiency potential remains. But with leading rusher Corey Kiner and last year’s top four wideouts gone, Sorsby will be distributing the ball to some unfamiliar teammates. Satterfield seemed to acknowledge Cincy’s explosiveness issues by adding a trio of big-play receivers in Caleb Goodie (Colorado State), Cyrus Allen (Texas A&M/Louisiana Tech) and Jeff Caldwell (Lindenwood). Throw in an expanded role for former Ohio State running back Evan Pryor — whose 71 touches at UC last year included rushes of 65, 64, 55, 36 and 32 yards and receptions of 80 and 40 yards — and you could have a massive uptick in big plays. Maintaining last year’s efficiency might be up to a line that lost three starters but added three experienced transfers.
The defense returns some difference-makers in the front six. That’s doubly true if tackle Dontay Corleone can find fifth gear again. A potential All-American, “The Godfather” was merely good last season after coming back from offseason blood clot issues, but he’s healthy, and transfer ends Jaylon White-McClain (Old Dominion) and Mikah Coleman (EMU, injured in 2024) could give the Bearcats extra oomph up front. At outside linebacker, Jake Golday and Jonathan Thompson are both excellent against the run.
The pass defense is the question mark. The pass rush is unproven, and four of last year’s five starting DBs are gone, leaving returnees like nickel Antwan Peek Jr. to pair with newcomers like corner Matthew McDoom (Coastal Carolina) and safeties Tayden Barnes (New Mexico State), Xavier Williams (Middle Tennessee) and Christian Harrison (Tennessee). Barnes was one of the most disruptive freshman DBs in the country last season.
Further improvement is likely in Satterfield’s third season, but with a schedule featuring six top-35 opponents, I’m not sure what impact that will have on the win total.
Head coach: Rich Rodriguez (eighth year at WVU, 60-26 overall, first year of second stint)
2025 projection: 57th in SP+, 5.2 average wins (3.1 in the Big 12)
Like Scott Frost, Rich Rodriguez has returned to the scene of his greatest successes. He even doubled down on the nostalgia factor by hiring former Mountaineers stars like Pat White and Noel Devine as assistants.
Rodriguez has brought in 52 transfers, including veteran running back Jaylan Knighton (SMU), three small-school thousand-yard rushers (Catawba’s L.J. Turner, Ferris State’s Kannon Katzer and Northern Iowa’s Tye Edwards), four 600-yard receivers (including Jacksonville State big-play man Cam Vaughn and Idaho State thousand-yarder Jeff Weimer), 11 offensive linemen, dynamite UTSA edge rusher Jimmori Robinson (10.5 sacks, 11 run stops), two disruptive FCS linebackers (Southern Illinois’ Ben Bogle and UIW’s Devin Grant), two of the most disruptive DBs in the Group of 5 (Nevada corner Michael Coats Jr. and Jax State nickel Fred Perry) and a fascinating D2 safety in Virginia Union’s William Davis (11.5 TFLs!).
With junior Jahiem White also returning, WVU should easily have one of the most exciting running back units in the country. His career has been hit-and-miss since he left Morgantown the first time, but he re-established his run-game bona fides at Jacksonville State, winning 27 games in three seasons. In Tyler Huff, he had a perfect QB for his style at JSU, and we’ll see if either Jaylen Henderson (Texas A&M), returnee Nicco Marchiol or Max Brown (Charlotte) fit as well. But Rodriguez definitely brought in as many intriguing weapons as he could find in the portal.
He also made a nice defensive coordinator hire, luring former JSU DC Zac Alley over from Oklahoma. A former student and graduate assistant at Clemson, Alley has only been a full-time coach since 2019, but his track record is dynamite: He oversaw improvement at ULM (opposite offensive coordinator Rich Rod) in 2021, engineered a No. 57 defensive SP+ ranking in Jax State’s FBS debut and helped OU to improve from 38th to 17th last season. There are so many new guys that everyone’s going to need to wear name tags in the meeting room for a few months, but he does have some playmakers here. And if the Mountaineers can combine negative plays on defense with big run plays on offense, their in-the-cellar projection will prove far too pessimistic.
Just looking for a path to 6-6
I usually reserve this category for teams with no more than a 35% chance of bowl eligibility. The Big 12 has no such teams. Everyone has a reason to be pretty ambitious. I love this conference.
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Sports
2025 SEC football preview: Power Rankings, top players, must-see games
Published
2 hours agoon
August 6, 2025By
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In the past six years, four of the College Football Playoff national champions have been SEC teams. Will 2025 be the season that yet another SEC team claims the title?
Texas, Georgia and Alabama all enter the season with new starting quarterbacks. Texas’ Arch Manning is under some very bright lights as we wait to see whether he lives up to the hype in his new starting role. Georgia’s Gunner Stockton got a taste at starting quarterback, stepping up in the 2025 Sugar Bowl after now-Miami quarterback Carson Beck got injured in the 2024 SEC championship game. And Alabama’s Ty Simpson has a big season ahead as Alabama looks to make a run at the CFP after just missing it last season.
Former Washington State quarterback John Mateer joins Oklahoma this fall after ranking No. 1 in the top 100 transfers list from the 2024-25 transfer cycle. Could Oklahoma bounce back after a seven-loss season last year?
We’re here to get you caught up on the SEC by breaking down the conference’s CFP outlook, Power Rankings, must-see games, top freshmen, key transfers and numbers to know.
Jump to:
CFP outlook | Must-see games
Freshmen | Transfers
Numbers to know
Power rankings
CFB outlook
Should be in: The SEC will attempt to restore its dominance after its teams failed to win each of the past two national championships. The league claimed four in a row from 2019 to ’22 and sent three teams (Georgia, Texas and Tennessee) to the CFP in 2024. Alabama was the first team left out of the 12-team bracket. The Longhorns should be right back in the mix, especially if former five-star quarterback Arch Manning is as good as advertised. Texas returns three potential All-Americans — edge rusher Colin Simmons, linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and safety Michael Taaffe — from a defense that ranked No. 3 in the FBS in scoring defense (15.3 points) last season. Georgia will also be breaking in a new starting quarterback, as Gunner Stockton is replacing Carson Beck, who left for Miami. The Bulldogs will have four new starting offensive linemen, and they’re counting on Zachariah Branch (USC) and Noah Thomas (Texas A&M) to upgrade their receiver corps. The Crimson Tide will be looking to bounce back from a four-loss campaign in coach Kalen DeBoer’s first season, and their defense, led by an imposing front seven, should be good enough to get them back into the race for an SEC title. Ty Simpson is another first-year starting quarterback, and he’ll have plenty of weapons and a stout offensive line supporting him. — Mark Schlabach
In the running: LSU brings back the SEC’s most accomplished quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, who threw for 4,052 yards with 29 touchdowns in 2024. With tailback Caden Durham and receiver Aaron Anderson returning, the Tigers should again be as explosive as any offense in the league. The question, of course, is whether LSU’s defense will be able to slow down opponents. The Tigers should be better after adding a plethora of defenders from the transfer portal, especially if Harold Perkins Jr. can stay healthy. Texas A&M is one of the few SEC contenders that won’t be breaking in a new quarterback. Marcel Reed was solid as a freshman, and if he can cut down on mistakes in his second season, the Aggies might be a big surprise. With tailbacks Amari Daniels and Le’Veon Moss running behind an offensive line that brings back five seniors, Reed won’t have to do too much. Ole Miss was in the running for a CFP bid until losing at Florida late in the 2024 season, and coach Lane Kiffin has used the transfer portal again to reload his roster. The Rebels will be breaking in a new quarterback, Austin Simmons, and they’re going to be relying on myriad transfers to rebuild their defense. They’ll play at Georgia and Oklahoma and get LSU, South Carolina and Florida at home. — Chris Low
Long shots: In what figures to be a big season for Oklahoma coach Brent Venables, the Sooners added former Washington State quarterback John Mateer and running back Jaydn Ott from Cal. The defense should be solid, and if new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle can turn things around, the Sooners might be a sleeper. The Sooners play Texas in Dallas and South Carolina, Tennessee and Alabama on the road. South Carolina brings back one of the league’s best players in quarterback LaNorris Sellers, but it will have to replace its entire offensive line, leading rusher and most of its top playmakers on defense. Tennessee will be looking for a return to the playoff. Nico Iamaleava is out as quarterback, and Joey Aguilar comes in after spending the spring at UCLA. The Vols will again need Tim Banks’ defense to carry the load. Missouri has the most manageable schedule in the league, and this may be Eliah Drinkwitz’s best defense. The Tigers play eight of their 12 games at home and avoid Georgia, LSU and Texas. Florida will also be improved and has the quarterback and defense to make a run. But, whew, that schedule. — Schlabach
Must-see games
From Bill Connelly’s SEC conference preview
Here are the 10 games — eight in conference play, plus two of the biggest nonconference games of 2025 — that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points.
Texas at Ohio State (Aug. 30) and LSU at Clemson (Aug. 30). I have so many questions about each of these four teams, and I’m so happy that they’ve basically paired off with each other to help answer them. Toss in Alabama at Florida State in between the noon ET kickoff in Columbus and the evening kickoff in Clemson and you’ve got yourself a solid SEC headliner for each time slot on the first Saturday of the season.
Georgia at Tennessee (Sept. 13). The Bulldogs and Volunteers meet in September for the first time since 2018. Good. I like my UGA-Tennessee games early, when they can spark the largest possible existential crises.
Alabama at Georgia (Sept. 27). A rematch of the second-best game of 2024*. Aside from Ohio State-Michigan, no game did a better job of reminding us that huge college football games will still be huge and delightful even if the national title stakes are dampened by a bigger playoff.
(* Bama gets a rematch of the best game of 2024 the next week when Vandy comes to town.)
LSU at Ole Miss (Sept. 27). Is it too late to redraw the schedules? Between the Bama-Georgia and Oregon-Penn State main events and an undercard of LSU-Ole Miss, Indiana-Iowa, TCU-Arizona State and USC-Illinois (and, on top of everything else, South Dakota at North Dakota State), Week 5 might actually be too big! Goodness.
Texas at Florida (Oct. 4). Texas benefited from an easier slate (relatively speaking) in 2024, with just three regular-season opponents finishing in the SP+ top 20. But if Florida and Oklahoma improve as projected this fall, the Horns are looking at five such games, only one of which is in Austin. That’s the opposite of easy.
Ole Miss at Georgia (Oct. 18). Ole Miss might have enjoyed the single best performance of the regular season in last year’s 28-10 walloping of the Dawgs. That the Rebels turned right around and lost to Florida, eventually eliminating them from CFP contention, has to be one of the biggest on-field regrets of the past 50 years in Oxford.
Alabama at South Carolina (Oct. 25). South Carolina began turning its season around with a near-comeback win over Bama in 2024. This will be the Gamecocks’ third straight game against a projected top-20 team, so the season might have already gone in a couple different directions by the time Bama gets to town.
LSU at Alabama (Nov. 8). Bama crushed LSU in Baton Rouge last season, then pulled an Ole Miss and fell victim to a devastating upset two weeks later. Considering the expectations and pressure both of these teams are dealing with, this game could have playoff stakes and/or hot seat stakes. Or both?
Texas at Georgia (Nov. 15). Georgia was the only SEC hurdle Texas couldn’t clear last season. There’s obviously a chance this will be the first of two UGA-UT matchups in a four-week span.
Three freshmen to watch
Dallas Wilson, WR, Florida
Wilson showed up instantly by catching 10 passes for almost 200 yards and two touchdowns in Florida’s spring game. No matter who starts at quarterback on Week 1 for the Gators, there’s a good chance they’ll develop a quick connection with Wilson. The 6-foot-4 Florida native has a massive catch radius, 10-inch hands and surprising breakaway speed given his frame. He runs a legitimate 4.5 40-yard dash and has the shiftiness to pick up yards after the catch, making him a nightmare matchup who should see the field early in The Swamp.
David Sanders Jr., OT, Tennessee
Rarely does Tennessee turn a starting offensive line spot over to a freshman, but Sanders has all the developmental markers of an impactful tackle right out of the gate in Rocky Top. He was named North Carolina’s Gatorade Player of the Year as a junior, a rare accolade for an offensive lineman, and was the No. 7 recruit in the Class of 2025. Tennessee coaches challenged Sanders to put on weight after he enrolled early and he answered the call. The freshman now checks in at 6-6, 305 pounds with an exceptional combination of athleticism, lower body flexibility and reaction skills. Sanders will have every opportunity to win the starting right tackle spot on a Volunteers line that needs to replace four starters from last year as they retool in search of a national championship.
DJ Pickett, CB, LSU
At 6-4, Pickett has a monster frame and legitimate speed after recording a 10.7 100-meter time in high school, where he was a district sprinting champion. If he can carry over his momentum from spring practice into fall camp, Pickett has a shot to earn a starting job in Brian Kelly’s overhauled secondary. Pickett impressed LSU coaches with his combination of elite athleticism and playmaking. The five-star corner has a high ceiling and his combination of size and speed rarely seen on the boundaries in the SEC. — Billy Tucker
Three top transfers
These selections are based on Max Olson’s ranking of the top 100 transfers from the 2024-25 transfer cycle.
Transferring from: Washington State | Top 100 rank: 1
HT: 6-1 | WT: 219 | Class: Redshirt sophomore
Background: After spending two years behind Cam Ward, Mateer put together an impressive breakout season in 2024 that has made him one of the most coveted starting QBs in the country. Mateer threw for 3,139 yards and 29 touchdowns on 65% passing and ranked sixth among FBS starters with 1,032 rushing yards (excluding sacks) while scoring 15 rushing TDs. He’s explosive and fearless when he’s on the run, forcing 58 missed tackles according to ESPN Research (most among FBS QBs) with 22 rushes of 15 or more yards. The Little Elm, Texas, native went 8-4 as a starter, leading the Cougars as high as No. 18 in the College Football Playoff rankings, with a top-five expected points added (EPA) per dropback among FBS starters. Washington State put together a strong offer to bring Mateer back in 2025, but he chose to move on via the portal and has an opportunity to be the most impactful player in this portal cycle for 2025. — Max Olson
Scout’s take: Mateer is a true Air Raid guy in the passing game. He excels in rhythm and timing throws and is very decisive. He’s a very tough player to rush because he gets the ball out of his hand. He’s a solid runner who can get out of trouble and extend plays. He plays with a high confidence level and raises the play of the people around him. — Tom Luginbill
What he brings to Oklahoma: Much-needed swagger. Oklahoma hired Washington State offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle on Dec. 2, which made Mateer-to-OU the worst-kept secret in portal recruiting. Miami and others made a strong push, but Mateer couldn’t turn down a chance to join his coaches in Norman and play on a big stage next season. The Sooners have added a lot of talent via the portal to try to get things fixed, but Mateer will inject a ton of playmaking ability and confidence into their offense. — Max Olson
Transferring from: Georgia Tech | Top 100 rank: 6
HT: 5-11 | WT: 190 | Class: Sophomore
Background: Singleton was an instant difference-maker for Georgia Tech’s offense when he arrived, earning Freshman All-America honors in 2023 and finishing second for the ACC’s Offensive Rookie of the Year honor. The three-star signee from Douglasville, Georgia, caught 104 passes for 1,468 yards and scored 10 offensive touchdowns over the past two seasons. Singleton also ran track for the Yellow Jackets with a personal record of 10.32 in the 100-meter dash this spring. He has the talent to become an early-round draft pick and was one of the most coveted players in the portal. — Olson
Scout’s take: Singleton might be one of the best route runners and fastest overall players to enter the transfer portal. He’s really good in the underneath passing game, where he can turn screens and 5-yard catches into big chunk gains. He also has elite straight-line speed to get behind the defense and plucks most balls thrown in his vicinity. What made him such a high commodity in the portal are the intangibles. He’s a great blocker and tough player. — Billy Tucker
What he brings to Auburn: After the program’s fourth consecutive losing season, coach Hugh Freeze and the Tigers assembled an impressive transfer recruiting class that they hope will flip their fortunes in 2025. This is a significant win over Texas, Ole Miss and several other SEC foes; Singleton should play a high-target role for the Tigers as they replace talented pass catchers KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Rivaldo Fairweather. — Olson
Transferring from: USC | Top 100 rank: 8
HT: 5-10 | WT: 175 | Class: Sophomore
Background: Branch lived up to five-star hype right away with the Trojans and was one of the most dangerous all-purpose playmakers in the country in 2023. The No. 7 overall recruit became the first USC freshman to earn first-team All-America honors in program history. He was dominant in the return game (774 yards, two TDs) during his debut season and turned 89 touches on offense into 910 yards and four TDs over his two years at USC. He entered the portal along with his older brother, USC safety Zion Branch. — Olson
Scout’s take: One of the fastest players in the 2023 class, Branch quickly transitioned into one of college football’s most electrifying players as a true freshman at USC. He ran a verified 4.41 40 and had 100-meter track times in the 10.3 range coming out of national power Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas. That speed transferred to the field immediately as a returner in 2023. His special teams production dipped as a sophomore, but that might be more related to opponent scheme than any diminishing skill. In the passing game, he’s what you’d expect: a big-play weapon in the screen game, jet sweeps and on quick slants and crossers that get him the ball in space. He’s an underneath mismatch and a great YAC target. — Tucker
What he brings to Georgia: Branch is a big-time upgrade for a Georgia offense that must replace leading receivers Arian Smith and Dominic Lovett. The Bulldogs led all FBS teams with 36 receiver drops last season, according to ESPN Research, and will need Branch to be a reliable difference-maker for new starting QB Gunner Stockton. — Olson
Numbers to know
3: According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, three of the four teams with at least a 10% chance of winning the national championship are in the SEC: Texas at 24%, Georgia at 18% and Alabama at 11%. (The fourth team is Ohio State of the Big Ten at 11%.)
0: The number of new head coaches in the SEC this season, marking just the fourth time that has happened since the league expanded to 12 teams in 1992. There also were only four coordinator changes this offseason after more than half of the SEC’s coordinators were replaced following the 2023-24 season.
+250: The odds of Texas winning the SEC championship, according to ESPN BET, which are the longest odds for an SEC favorite in at least 15 years. The preseason favorite has gone on to win the SEC title in six of the last 10 seasons. — ESPN Research
Power Rankings
Steve Sarkisian loves his roster, and he has plenty of reason to be excited with Manning, receivers DeAndre Moore Jr. and Ryan Wingo, and tailbacks Quintrevion Wisner and CJ Baxter returning. The Longhorns will have to replace four starting offensive linemen and fill some holes on the defensive front.
Stockton got a taste of being the starting quarterback in the second half of last season’s SEC championship game and a CFP quarterfinal and did an admirable job. If Georgia’s offensive line plays better and his receivers are more dependable, Stockton should be fine running the offense.
DeBoer’s first season didn’t go as planned, but replacing Nick Saban at Alabama would have been a nightmare for any coach. DeBoer’s track record of success is too good for the Crimson Tide not to bounce back in Year 2.
4. LSU Tigers
The Tigers are probably going to score a lot of points, and if Brian Kelly can figure out how to turn around his defense, they might be a legitimate SEC title and CFP contender. LSU has dropped five straight season openers, three under Kelly, and it plays at Clemson on Aug. 30.
The Aggies went 8-5 in Mike Elko’s first season after starting 7-1, and if the longtime defensive coordinator can figure out how to improve a unit that allowed 5.5 yards per play in 2024, they might be a CFP dark horse. The offense might be spectacular and pound teams in the running game if quarterback Marcel Reed continues to grow as a passer.
Lane Kiffin loves to score points, but the Rebels were in the CFP hunt in 2024 because of their defense, which ranked No. 2 in the FBS in scoring defense (14.4 points), behind only national champion Ohio State. If Austin Simmons takes care of the ball, the Rebels might be better than anticipated.
The SEC schedule gets a little harder for the Vols this season, with the Alabama and Florida games both being on the road. The Georgia game on Sept. 13 is also earlier than usual, albeit at home, as Tennessee breaks in a new quarterback. The defense should again be very good and keep the Vols in games, but they’re going to need more explosive plays on offense if they’re going to make the playoff again.
Mateer was a massive get in the transfer portal for the Sooners, who simply couldn’t score a year ago. They were held to 20 or fewer points in seven of their 13 games. Oklahoma addressed several other needs on offense in the portal, and Venables is taking over the play-calling duties on defense. A four-game stretch from Oct. 11-Nov. 1 against Texas in Dallas, South Carolina on the road, Ole Miss at home and Tennessee on the road will define OU’s season.
The two lingering questions with the Gators, who came back from the dead a year ago, are whether or not ultra-talented quarterback DJ Lagway can stay healthy for the season and how they navigate a killer schedule again. Florida plays six teams ranked nationally in the preseason polls.
The Gamecocks might have a bona fide star in Sellers, but they’re having to replace many of the key pieces around him, as well as several difference-makers on defense. South Carolina plays a five-game stretch against LSU (road), Oklahoma (home), Alabama (home), Ole Miss (road) and Texas A&M (road) in October and November.
11. Missouri Tigers
If the Tigers were more proven at quarterback, they’d probably be ranked a lot higher. Even so, don’t be surprised if Drinkwitz’s club makes a serious run at double-digit wins for the third straight season, which has never happened in school history. Penn State transfer Beau Pribula and Sam Horn, who missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, are competing for the starting quarterback job.
12. Auburn Tigers
This should be Hugh Freeze’s best team on the Plains, and the Tigers could be one of those teams that makes a lot more noise during the season than some outside of the program are expecting. So much will depend on quarterback Jackson Arnold, who’s getting a reset after transferring from Oklahoma. He has a deep and talented receiving corps, and edge rusher Keldric Faulk leads a defense that needs to be better at getting off the field in key situations.
Arkansas is another team that has a chance to be much improved, although the final record might not reflect it. The Hogs have one of the trickier schedules in the league, and some new faces need to step up on defense. But returning quarterback Taylen Green is dynamic as both a passer and runner and should be even better in his second season under offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino.
This is no diss to Clark Lea and the Commodores to be ranked this low. They reveled in proving people wrong a year and may do the same again this year, especially if they can stay healthy. Quality depth has always been a problem for Vanderbilt. What’s not a problem is its quarterback. Diego Pavia returns after a terrific debut season on West End. His teammates feed off his energy and toughness.
Mark Stoops, in his 13th season at Kentucky, is the dean of SEC coaches. He has built the Wildcats’ program from the ground up, but they dipped to 4-8 a year ago and 1-7 in the SEC. That’s after winning 10 games in 2018 and 2021 and going to eight straight bowl games. The Wildcats need to regain their tough, blue-collar approach and get consistent play from transfer quarterback Zach Calzada (on his fourth different team) if they’re going to bounce back in 2025.
16. Mississippi State Bulldogs
It has been a whirlwind for second-year Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby, who has had to completely overhaul the roster, 80% consisting of players in their first or second year in the program. Lebby is excited by what he has seen from quarterback Blake Shapen, who missed most of last season with a shoulder injury. The home schedule for the Bulldogs is one of the toughest in the country. Four playoff teams from a year ago (Arizona State, Tennessee, Texas and Georgia) visit Starkville. — Schlabach, Low
Sports
Goals king Ovechkin finds partner for movie rights
Published
2 hours agoon
August 6, 2025By
admin
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Associated Press
Aug 5, 2025, 11:38 AM ET
Washington Capitals star Alex Ovechkin has partnered with a Russian technology company to produce a movie, series or documentary about his NHL career.
Yandex and its streaming platform, Kinopoisk, announced the agreement Tuesday.
Ovechkin this past spring broke Wayne Gretzky’s career goals record and has scored 897 going into the final season of his contract with the Capitals. Ovechkin, who turns 40 next month, has along with his representatives granted the rights to adapt his career to Yandex’s production label, Plus Studio.
The Moscow native began his professional career in the Russian league, now the KHL. He is expected to take part in commercials and serve as a Yandex ambassador as part of the deal.
Ovechkin has played his entire NHL career with Washington since the Capitals drafted him with the first pick in 2004, and he debuted in 2005. He has been the face of the franchise since, served as its captain since January 2010. He was playoffs MVP in 2018 when he led the Capitals to their first Stanley Cup championship.
Sports
Kraken mascot has run-in with bear at video shoot
Published
2 hours agoon
August 6, 2025By
admin
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Associated Press
Aug 5, 2025, 06:18 PM ET
SEATTLE — Seattle Kraken forward John Hayden and the team’s blue-haired troll mascot had a close call with a brown bear during a promotional video shoot in Alaska.
Hayden and the mascot named Buoy were on a fly-fishing outing in Katmai National Park as part of a trip promoting youth hockey when the bear approached, video released by the team shows.
Knee-deep in a shallow river, they wore waders and other fly-fishing gear. Hayden had been fishing, but a guide quickly took the rod from him.
The bear charged toward the mascot, splashing water, but turned away before making contact as Hayden, Buoy and the film crew waded back to shore through a gentle current.
Brown bears commonly feast on salmon in the Brooks River in Katmai National Park, gobbling them as they leap upstream over Brooks Falls to spawn. The park, nearly 300 miles (485 km) southwest of Anchorage and inaccessible by road, is home to the annual “Fat Bear Week” contest celebrating the bears as they fatten up for the winter.
The NHL team said it didn’t intend to involve the bear in filming, but included it in a video posted to social media. Organizers had hired guides for safety.
“Bears are everywhere at Brooks Falls and, like, this is their territory,” said Kraken Partnership Marketing Director Melissa O’Brochta, who also recorded the encounter from shore. “They’re also super used to seeing humans. So I wasn’t scared.”
A troll might have been a different story.
“I want to blame it on Buoy,” Hayden said on the video afterward. “They were pretty interested in his look.”
The run-in happened on June 25 as part of an annual trip organized by the Bristol Bay Native Corporation in Anchorage, Alaska, with events that promote youth ice hockey. Alaska does not have its own NHL team; the closest teams are in Seattle and Vancouver, Canada.
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