Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replacedRonald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said he felt a “pain that’s hard to describe” following his team’s 34-21 home loss to Syracuse on Saturday, which dropped the Tigers to 1-3 and his worst start as the Tigers’ head coach.
“This is a bad, bad feeling. Terrible,” Swinney said. “This is what we do. This is our passion. We work incredibly hard to get results that we want to get, and when we don’t get them, it’s a pain that’s hard to describe, but it comes with the territory. So we gotta flush it. That’s all we can do. There’s no hope for a better yesterday.”
Clemson closed as a 17½-point favorite at ESPN BET but suffered its largest home loss against an unranked opponent since 2001 against North Carolina, when the Tigers lost by 35.
With losses to LSU, Georgia Tech and now Syracuse, the Tigers have lost three of their first four games for the first time under Swinney. It’s also the first time the program has started 1-3 since 2004.
Swinney conceded he was emotional on the field after the game during the school’s alma mater.
“Disappointed, painful, hurt,” he said. “I’m human. I’m not a cyborg. This is my life. I’ve been here 23 years. I love this place. I give this place the best I’ve got every single day. … I’ve invested my life here, and when I don’t get the job done, I’m responsible. I feel the pain. Not just my pain, I feel everybody’s pain. That comes with my job, and I don’t run from that.”
Clemson finished with 503 yards, its most in a loss since 2016. It’s a stunning start for Clemson, which returned the most production in the FBS (80%) this season. Quarterback Cade Klubnik has his top three receivers back from last year’s ACC championship team, and the defense was expected to be one of best fronts in the country.
“We just can’t seem to put it all together when we need it,” Swinney said.
The Tigers have a bye week before traveling to North Carolina on Oct. 4, and Swinney said it comes at a good time because the team is “beat up emotionally and physically.”
“There’s no quit in me and I didn’t see any quit in our team or our staff,” he said. “We’ll get back to work. We have to reset our goals and what we still can do. We can’t sit around and dwell on missed opportunities. … It’s basically an eight-game season for us at this point. We’ve just gotta fight our tails off to find a way to win a game, create some momentum.”
College football reporter; joined ESPN in 2008. Graduate of Northwestern University.
Wisconsin athletic director Chris McIntosh voiced his support for coach Luke Fickell and the program Saturday after Maryland handed the Badgers a 27-10 home loss, which featured several “Fire Fickell!” chants by the student section.
Speaking with the Wisconsin State Journal and Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, McIntosh shared his “belief in the program and the people around our program, specifically Luke,” and reiterated his support for the players. Fickell fell to 15-15 in two-plus seasons as Wisconsin coach after consecutive losses to Alabama and Maryland. He is under contract through the 2031 season and is earning $7.7 million this fall.
The Badgers were booed as they headed to the locker room down 20-0 to Maryland at halftime and didn’t reach the end zone until 28 seconds remained in the fourth quarter.
“When you have kids that have given it all and are faced with, as a program, adversity like this, I think it’s a time for our people to come together,” McIntosh told the two outlets. “I think it’s a time for me to express my support.”
McIntosh, a former Wisconsin offensive lineman, fired coach Paul Chryst midway through the 2022 season and hired Fickell, who guided Cincinnati to the College Football Playoff in 2021. Although Fickell had no direct ties to Wisconsin — unlike Chryst and Jim Leonhard, the team’s interim coach in 2022 — Fickell’s hire was largely celebrated.
The Badgers have endured several quarterback injuries during Fickell’s tenure but could be in danger of missing bowl games in consecutive seasons for the first time since a stretch from 1985 to 1992. Fickell is 78-40 as an FBS coach.
McIntosh acknowledged the fans’ sentiment, saying, “Apathy is worst case, and so we’re far from that.” He also said he isn’t concerned about his job security. McIntosh is under contract through June 2029.
“I don’t think there’s anyone in the building that thinks that where we are at this moment in time right now, this is what Wisconsin football is,” he said Saturday. “… I’ll come back to what I said earlier: What’s left to be done about that? What’s left to be done about that is to learn from what happened on a day like today and grow.”
Dave Wilson is a college football reporter. He previously worked at The Dallas Morning News, San Diego Union-Tribune and Las Vegas Sun.
FORT WORTH, Texas — After 104 meetings, the TCU–SMU Iron Skillet rivalry is over, with the Horned Frogs claiming the final edition 35-24 on Saturday.
TCU coach Sonny Dykes, who has been on both sides of the rivalry as head coach at SMU before moving west to Fort Worth, has been vocal that he doesn’t think the series should continue.
“It’s college football, it’s business and people have to make business decisions,” he said. “Sometimes nobody likes ’em.”
Last season, SMU won 66-42, and Dykes was ejected from the game after getting two consecutive unsportsmanlike conduct penalties for arguing with referees. He said he has heard from plenty of SMU fans about why he didn’t want to play the Mustangs anymore.
Dykes won his last two games at SMU against the Frogs and Gary Patterson, then beat SMU his first two years at TCU in 2022 and 2023 before last year’s loss.
“I think the idea is that Coach Dykes is scared of the Iron Skillet game. Five outta the last six is what we won,” he said before referencing a 1970s power ballad by Meat Loaf, “Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad.”
“I think that’s a Meat Loaf song, right? Five outta six ain’t bad?” he asked. “So yeah, I ain’t too scared.”
TCU was led by quarterback Josh Hoover, who was 22-of-40 for 379 yards, five touchdowns and an interception, along with a breakout performance from wide receiver Eric McAlister, a Boise State transfer from Azle High School in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. McAlister had eight catches for 254 yards and three touchdowns. He lost another when SMU defensive back Jaelyn Davis-Robinson wrestled the ball away from him in the end zone for an interception, and he also had a catch in the end zone that was ruled incomplete. The game wasn’t stopped for a review, but Dykes said afterward that the officials on the field said they were powerless to ask for a review because the booth had already reviewed it and ruled it incomplete.
“I saw the video,” McAlister said afterward. “That was two feet down. That’s good in the league.”
McAlister said it was important to claim this last win over the Mustangs.
“We see those guys out on the streets every day no matter where it’s at. It’s Dallas, so it’s not that far,” he said. “They might never sign this contract again. So at least we’ve got bragging rights.”
TCU discovered the Iron Skillet was broken while it was in its possession in 2018, and sources said it was hastily replaced with a Lodge Cast Iron skillet from a hardware store shortly before the game. On Saturday, Dykes was asked, given the skillet has had some issues in the past, what he would do with it now that it was in TCU’s possession indefinitely.
“Probably get a sledgehammer and break it,” he joked. “I don’t know. Our players have it right now and they’re excited about it. We took a picture. Now we’ll probably cook something in it.”