Coming off his second American League MVP season in 2024, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge opened as the favorite to repeat for the award. He has only helped his argument by posting the AL’s best average (.355) as well as its second-most home runs (35) and RBIs (81) at the All-Star break. However, as excellent as his season has been, a stunning breakout campaign from Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is closing the gap in the odds.
Judge currently shows -600 odds to win the AL MVP in 2025, a major improvement from his leading +300 at the start of the season, according to ESPN BET lines. However, Raleigh now has the second-best odds +325, a remarkable shortening from his opening 100-1 price.
Judge’s short odds all season — which reached an incredible -1,000 in mid-May — dictated that he was never going to be an attractive option for bettors, with BetMGM reporting 5.2% of the bettors backing him for the award, fifth best in the market.
Raleigh, on the other hand, made a slow progression up the odds board, allowing bettors to take advantage of his long plus-pricing for some time. Caesars Sportsbook baseball lead Eric Biggio said many of the sportsbook’s customers grabbed the Mariners backstop at 90-1 back in early May. Judge’s excellence actually helped keep Raleigh at a long price, according to another bookmaker, since Judge’s extremely short price needed to be balanced.
BetMGM said Raleigh holds a leading 33% of the handle for AL MVP, the book’s largest liability in the market. His laidback attitude, Home Run Derby win and amusing nickname could continue to fuel his MVP narrative … and make trouble for sportsbooks.
“As much as I like him, as much as I enjoy rooting for the Big Dumper, he’s a pretty big liability for us,” Biggio told ESPN. “We’ve got some pretty big tickets on Raleigh to win the MVP and for the home run leader.”
The latter market is also an intriguing one: Even as Raleigh (38) holds a three-homer lead over Judge, the Yankees slugger is still the solid favorite to sock the most dingers this season, showing -140 odds to Raleigh’s +130 at ESPN BET. Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani holds +800 odds to accompany his 32 home runs.
“If Raleigh wins either one of those two awards, we’re not going to be in as good of shape with him as we are with those other two guys,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN.
Ohtani is also the solid favorite for National League MVP at -700, but Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting some degree of pressure on him at +750. BetMGM reports PCA as its biggest liability in that market.
World Series favorites
Ahead of the 2025 season, the Dodgers were an astounding +160 to win the National League pennant and +275 to win the World Series, per ESPN BET lines — the shortest odds to win MLB’s championship since the 2003 Yankees. At the All-Star break, not a whole lot has changed, with L.A. now a +140 favorite to take the NL crown and a +240 favorite for the World Series.
Things have not gone as expected on the American League side, however. After opening the season at +1200 to win the AL and +3000 to take the World Series, the Detroit Tigers now display the best record in baseball, bringing their pennant odds to a favorite’s +250 and their championship odds to +700, tied with the Yankees for second best.
The underdog story resonated with the betting public, who began backing the Tigers at the first indications that they could make some noise not only in the AL Central, but in the league at large. Biggio said Detroit is Caesars’ second-largest liability, behind only the San Francisco Giants.
“We had some longer prices, and the public spotted it early that they’re a legit squad,” he said. “So some big prices on the Tigers to win it all, and they are for real.”
“They’ve become a popular futures selection, now our second-most bet World Series winner by total bets, and third-most popular pick by handle,” ESPN BET’s VP of sportsbook strategy and growth Adam Landeka said via email. “Given their relatively longer price earlier in the season, we already know we’ll be a fan of almost any team the Tigers face in the postseason.”
While Detroit’s concern will be coaching its relatively inexperienced core to a postseason run, L.A.’s will be staying healthy. Bookmakers remark that the Dodgers’ ability to keep winning games despite several significant injuries is a testament to their depth, thus keeping them a favorite in the long run.
Young arms
The eyes of the baseball world turned to Milwaukee for a seemingly random matinee game June 25. It was the first head-to-head matchup between Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes and Milwaukee Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski, two of the brightest future pitching stars in baseball. It would prove to be significant for at least one of them.
Prior to his MLB debut on June 12, Misirowski was +2500 to win NL Rookie of the Year. That day he moved to +1000, then to +175 after his second start, before finally becoming the odds-on favorite at -120 after getting the better of Skenes, according to ESPN BET’s Landeka. At the break, “The Miz” is -220 to take home the award. Sportsbooks were able to stay on top of his rapid ascendancy, limiting their liability.
“We were able to move this guy pretty quickly,” Avello said. “That’s one that didn’t get hit, could have had some good value there. We’re in pretty good shape with him actually.”
Skenes, meanwhile, is having another remarkable season after taking home ROY honors last year, but his disappointing record (4-8) for a dismal Pirates team could be keeping him from being the NL Cy Young favorite. He currently shows -105 odds at ESPN BET, trailing Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler at -130.
It’s largely a two-man race — Wheeler’s teammate, Cristopher Sanchez, is next closest in the odds at +2000 — but sportsbooks aren’t too worried about liability given the short prices on Skenes and Wheeler all season.
“We’ve seen comparable action on both, but as it stands now Skenes would be a better result for us,” Landeka said.
Rushing suffered a right lower leg contusion after he fouled off a pitch from Orioles right-hander Kade Strowd. Rushing was replaced by pinch-hitter Alex Call and then catcher Ben Rortvedt.
Starting catcher Will Smith is not available Saturday because of a right hand contusion.
Manager Dave Roberts said Rushing was in rough shape after the baseball hit the inside of his right knee. The catcher was seen on crutches in the clubhouse after the game.
“It got him pretty good,” Roberts said. “X-rays fortunately were negative. He’s going to get a CT scan tomorrow morning just to kind of dig a little deeper on it. He’s pretty banged up right now. I think until we know more, obviously he’s not going to be in there tomorrow. I guess it’s adding him to the day to day list.”
Roberts said Rortvedt will catch Saturday and the club will call up another catcher.
The Royals shortstop made two defensive plays, on ground balls, in the top half of the sixth inning, then exited before Kansas City took the field in the seventh.
“[It happened] sometime in that inning before we took him out,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro said. “He talked to [Royals head athletic trainer Kyle Turner]. As he sat there, it got worse.”
With the Royals leading 2-1, Witt was replaced in the lineup by Nick Loftin, who played third base while Maikel Garcia shifted to shortstop.
Quatraro offered no prognosis on Witt’s return.
“Right now, we just think it’s back spasms, low back spasms,” Quatraro said. “It locked up pretty good on him.”
ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
NEW YORK — The New York Yankees never publicly established a target date for Aaron Judge‘s return to right field after he sustained a right flexor strain in late July. For weeks, manager Aaron Boone said he expected Judge to patrol grass again soon — and definitely again in 2025 — but never offered specifics.
Soon ended up being Friday.
Judge started in right field in the Yankees’ 7-1 series-opening loss to the first-place Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium on Friday, marking the first time he patrolled grass since July 25. He played all nine innings and did not appear to aggravate his elbow injury. But questions surrounding his ability to throw immediately surfaced as the Blue Jays extended their lead over New York in the American League East standings to four games.
With Cam Schlittler on the mound and the bases loaded with two outs, Nathan Lukes looped a single to right field that one-hopped to Judge in the first inning.
While one run easily scored from third base, Daulton Varsho, the runner at second, had not yet reached third base when Judge fielded the ball. But instead of firing the ball home, Judge made a short throw to second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. at the edge of the outfield grass in front of him. Varsho crossed home plate without a throw, giving Toronto a 3-0 lead en route to its eighth win in 11 games against the Yankees this season.
Asked if he is capable of making that throw — from the middle of right field to home plate — at this juncture, Judge insisted it’s not an issue.
“I wouldn’t be in the outfield if I wasn’t able to make that throw,” Judge said.
Boone said Judge was “in position to make the throw.” When asked why Judge didn’t, Boone did not offer an explanation.
“We’re handling it how we handle it, OK?” Boone said.
Judge was placed on the injured list on July 27 after the flexor strain left him unable to throw a baseball. He was activated after the minimum 10 days to serve as the Yankees’ every-day designated hitter and started a throwing program soon thereafter. He batted .242 with six home runs and an 0.888 OPS in the 27 games at DH after being reinstated and remains the favorite to win his third AL MVP in four seasons with Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh challenging him for the crown.
He went 1-for-3 with a walk on Friday as Blue Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman stifled the Yankees offense over eight scoreless innings. Boone said he initially did not plan on having Judge play the outfield again on Saturday, but a decision would be made after speaking with Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, who had largely replaced Judge in the outfield before returning to his usual designated hitter role on Friday.
“Everything was feeling pretty good,” Judge said. “If you can throw, you gotta get out there.”
In the longer term, Boone said the 33-year-old Judge won’t play right field every day “initially.” Instead, he envisions Judge splitting time between right field and designated hitter, meaning Stanton will continue getting starts on defense to have both his and Judge’s bats in the lineup.
The decision comes with risks ranging from opponents testing Judge’s arm, potentially capitalizing on any reluctance to fire away, to Judge exacerbating the injury and jeopardizing his availability for the remainder of the season with the postseason a month away.
“He’s playing,” Boone said. “He’s in there. He’s in there so he’s good enough to be in there and hopefully it will continue to improve.”
The Yankees are willing to take the gamble because while Stanton remains an elite power hitter, he cannot play the outfield every day and is a defensive liability when he’s out there at this point in his career. Once a plus outfielder, nagging injuries in recent years have forced Stanton to miss substantial time and sapped his athleticism. The combination prompted the Yankees to build their roster with Stanton as their every-day DH the past two seasons.
Stanton, 35, returned to the outfield on Aug. 9, nearly two years after last playing defense. He started 12 games in right field before making three consecutive starts in left field against the Houston Astros this week.
The former National League MVP homered on Friday for the Yankees’ only run and is batting .287 with 19 home runs and an 0.987 OPS in 59 games after spending more than two months on the injured list with tendon injuries in both of his elbows to begin the season.
“There were days where we pushed it a little bit,” Boone said. “There were other days [where we were] going to be disciplined [in] having a day down. So, and I think all and all, it’s gone pretty well. Obviously, he’s performed. I think he’s done a nice job out there and now it gives us that added flexibility now that he’s in the mix out there moving forward.”