Editor’s note: This story originally ran on Jan. 22, 2025. The Class of 2025 is being inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame on July 27, 2025.
Welcome to the Hall of Fame, Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner. It’s a remarkable achievement to survive the gauntlet of baseball writers to get elected to Cooperstown: After all, the Baseball Hall of Fame remains the toughest to gain entry to, especially via the BBWAA path of election.
This trio stands out for their disparate backgrounds. Suzuki — let’s just call him Ichiro — grew up in Japan, of course, and was a star in the Japan Pacific League at 20 years old before becoming the first Japanese position player to play in the majors when he signed with the Seattle Mariners in 2001 at 27. A California native, Sabathia was a high school baseball and basketball star in the Bay Area, growing to a towering 6-foot-6 and throwing 95 mph. Cleveland drafted him in the first round, and he was in the majors at 20 years old. Wagner grew up in rural Virginia and played at Division III Ferrum College. He wasn’t big, but his fastball was. The Houston Astros drafted Wagner in the first round, and he debuted at age 24 before turning into one of the most dominant relief pitchers of all time.
All three are now Hall of Famers. Let’s look at three reasons each player got there.
Why Ichiro Suzuki is a Hall of Famer
Ichiro was just one vote shy of becoming the second unanimous selection (Mariano Rivera did it in 2019). In one sense, maybe it’s a little surprising he had that many votes — you could argue Ichiro is perhaps a little overrated. After all, he had 60.0 career WAR in the majors; Bobby Abreu, by comparison, was on this ballot with 60.2 career WAR and received just 26% of the vote. Ichiro’s career 107 OPS+ is now the third lowest for any Hall of Fame outfielder, ahead of only Lloyd Waner and 19th-century speedster Tommy McCarthy. So why Ichiro?
1. 3,000 career hits
OK, Ichiro was mostly a singles hitter, not hitting for much power with a career high of 15 home runs in a season, but he turned beating out infield singles and grounding base hits up the middle into an art form. He reached 200 hits his first 10 seasons with the Mariners, leading the league in seven of those years. Over the past 10 seasons, all major leaguers have combined for just 17 200-hit seasons — and the best of those was Ronald Acuna Jr.’s 217 hits in 2023, a total Ichiro exceeded five times, including a record 262 in 2004, a season he hit .372 (nobody has hit for as high an average since).
Considering he didn’t debut with the Mariners until his age-27 season, it remains remarkable that Ichiro is one of just 33 players with 3,000 hits. The other 32 averaged 994 hits through their age-26 season, with Wade Boggs’ 531 hits the lowest in the group. Of those to debut after 1930, all who are eligible for the Hall of Fame and not tainted by a betting or PED scandal were voted in on the first ballot except Craig Biggio (who took three tries to get elected). Getting to 3,000 hits made Ichiro an automatic selection.
Two keys to Ichiro’s hit total: his remarkable durability and the fact that he didn’t walk much (which is why he had a .400 OBP just once in his career). He averaged a remarkable 159 games played through his first 12 seasons, suffering just one minor stint on the injured list over that span. The sight of Ichiro constantly stretching between pitches and in the outfield is as much a part of his lasting image as him sprinting down the first-base line or racing into the corner to make another spectacular catch.
2. He was an inner-circle Hall of Fame talent
The earlier comparison to Abreu might suggest that Ichiro is a borderline Hall of Fame player. That belief, however, underestimates how transcendent Ichiro was at his peak — and that seven of his peak seasons came in Japan before he signed with the Mariners. While voters are voting on Ichiro’s accomplishments in only the major leagues, it seems fair to at least recognize that we witnessed only a portion of his greatness.
Consider this: In his first four seasons in the majors, from 2001 to 2004, Ichiro hit .339 and averaged 6.5 WAR per season. In Japan, Ichiro was a sensation right away, hitting .385 in his first full season, as good at age 20 as his final season in Japan, when he hit .387. We can thus assume he would have produced similar results in MLB from ages 20 to 26 as he did from 27 to 30. That adds up to an additional 45 WAR — on top of the 60 that Baseball-Reference credits him during his time in the majors.
How impressive would 105 career WAR be? Since the expansion era in 1961, only six position players have reached 100 career WAR: Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Rickey Henderson, Mike Schmidt, Albert Pujols and Joe Morgan. This suggests Ichiro belongs on that level of inner-circle appreciation.
Much of his value came from his all-around brilliance on the bases and as a right fielder (he won 10 Gold Gloves). Baseball-Reference credits him with plus-62 runs as a baserunner (18th all time) and plus-121 runs on defense (18th among outfielders). He had two of the most efficient base-stealing seasons of all time, going 45-for-47 in 2006 and 43-for-47 in 2008, plus he led the league with 56 steals in his MVP/Rookie of the Year season of 2001. As a right fielder, Ichiro combined impeccable instincts with a strong and accurate arm. He excelled at charging the ball quickly and preventing runners from advancing, and he never seemed to make a mistake in the field — indeed, he was charged with only 38 errors in 19 seasons.
So, yes, Ichiro was overrated as a hitter. But his all-around skills and peak performance correctly put him in a class among the elite of the elite.
3. Come on, he was Ichiro — an icon
In the end, sometimes “Hall of Famer” doesn’t need an argument; it’s just a description to explain the obvious: Ichiro is a Hall of Famer, no matter what the numbers do or don’t say. Who was cooler than Ichiro wearing his shades, pointing his bat at the pitcher in his pre-pitch ritual and then tugging at his right sleeve. Early in his first month in the majors, Mariners announcer Dave Niehaus made an instant legend of Ichiro with his description of his famous throw to nail Terrence Long at third base: “I’m here to tell you that Ichiro threw something out of Star Wars down there at third base!” Ichiro was a throwback to a different era of hitting. He was a trailblazer. An absolute one of a kind. Unanimous? He certainly should have been.
Why CC Sabathia is a Hall of Famer
Sabathia finished 251-161 with a 3.74 ERA, 61.8 WAR and a Cy Young Award with Cleveland in 2007. None of those numbers necessarily scream first-ballot Hall of Famer and, indeed, only Sandy Koufax has a lower career WAR among starting pitchers elected on their first ballot. Here’s how Sabathia made it.
1. A high peak level of performance
Sabathia had a five-year run from 2007 through 2011 in which he went 95-40 with a 3.09 ERA and 30.4 WAR while averaging 240 innings per season, which now seems like a Herculean workload. He won the one Cy Young Award and finished in the top five of the voting in the other four seasons. During those seasons, only Roy Halladay had a higher WAR among pitchers — and there was a big gap from Sabathia to Cliff Lee, the No. 3 guy who had 25.0 WAR — and nobody won more games.
Along the way, Sabathia famously carried the Milwaukee Brewers into the playoffs in 2008 — their first playoff appearance at the time since 1982 — starting on three days’ rest for his final three starts, including tossing a playoff-clinching complete game on the final day of the season. The next year, he signed with the New York Yankees and led them to a World Series title, going 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA in the postseason.
Sabathia fits into more of an old-school definition of a Hall of Famer: Was he the best at his position for an extended period of time? His 251 wins are the same as Bob Gibson and more than quality Hall of Famers such as Juan Marichal, Whitey Ford, Pedro Martinez or Don Drysdale. Those guys all felt like Hall of Famers, as did Sabathia. And he did enough around that peak — six other seasons with at least 3 WAR and appearing in 10 different postseasons — to merit selection.
2. The best of a generation
Indeed, Sabathia stands out along with Halladay (who was elected posthumously in 2019) as the bridge between the Martinez/Randy Johnson/Greg Maddux/Tom Glavine/John Smoltz group to the still-active trio of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw, who came along a few years after Sabathia. Verlander has 262 wins, but Scherzer has 216 and is petering out. Kershaw has 212 and is coming off a two-win 2024 season. Zack Greinke finished with 225 wins. Even Halladay finished with just 203 wins.
Other than Andy Pettitte, who debuted six years before Sabathia and won 256 games, and Sabathia’s former teammate Bartolo Colon, who won 247, other pitchers from Sabathia’s generation didn’t last long enough for Hall consideration: Johan Santana had an amazing peak but won just 139 games; Felix Hernandez was on the ballot for the first time and received enough votes to stay on, but his last good season came at age 29; and Cliff Lee won 143 games and got injured. There are some other 200-game winners — Tim Hudson (off the ballot) and Mark Buehrle (still on) — but Sabathia was the rarity of his generation, combining both peak value and longevity.
3. Timing is everything
Sabathia’s vote total was, no doubt, helped by the general weakness of this ballot, where only Ichiro was a slam-dunk candidate. Voters want to vote players in, so in a sense, candidates are compared as much to the other players on the ballot as to Hall of Fame standards. If Sabathia was on the ballot in 2015 — a ballot that included Johnson, Martinez, Smoltz, Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina — he doesn’t get in. But his “competition” on this ballot was the aforementioned Pettitte, Buehrle and Hernandez (the only other starting pitchers even on the ballot). This isn’t to knock Sabathia’s accomplishments, but it’s a truth of Hall of Fame voting results: The ballot itself matters. It took Mussina, with 270 wins and 82.8 career WAR, six times to get elected because he faced a lot of crowded ballots. This ballot was not crowded.
Why Billy Wagner is a Hall of Famer
On his 10th and final appearance on the BBWAA ballot, Wagner finally made it in after falling five votes short last year. He debuted with just 10.5% of the vote in 2016, so why now?
1. Once again … timing is everything
As with Sabathia, a lot of it came down to timing. Wagner’s first ballot in 2016 included 11 other players who are now Hall of Famers — plus Clemens, Schilling, Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent and Gary Sheffield. Voters can vote for a maximum of 10 players, so in many cases, there simply wasn’t enough room to vote for Wagner. He was fortunate to receive more than the 5% of the vote needed just to remain on the ballot.
As the ballot logjam slowly thinned out through the years, Wagner’s vote totals increased. Rivera was elected in 2019, so it’s no surprise Wagner saw his percentage increase from 16.7% in 2019 to 31.7% in 2020, which started his momentum toward eventual election. As Wagner got closer in 2023 and then last year, the final-ballot push that players often receive — see Tim Raines and Edgar Martinez as two others who got elected on their 10th ballot — pushed him over the 75% threshold.
2. He was one of the most dominant closers of all time
Look, Rivera is on his own mountain among relievers, but Wagner has a strong case for No. 2. Yes, Wagner is now just eighth in career saves — Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel have passed him, and non-Hall of Famers Francisco Rodriguez and John Franco also have more — but only Rivera can match Wagner’s dominance.
Compare Wagner to Trevor Hoffman, who is second with 601 career saves to Wagner’s 422:
No, Wagner didn’t rack up as many saves, but he also retired at the top of his game: In his final season, he had a 1.43 ERA, 37 saves and 104 strikeouts in 69 innings. He still had plenty of zip left in that fastball.
To put Wagner’s career numbers in perspective, among pitchers with at least 900 innings since the live-ball era began in 1920, he ranks:
• Second in ERA behind only Rivera’s 2.21
• First in strikeouts per nine innings
• First in lowest batting average allowed (.187)
• Second in lowest OPS allowed to Rivera’s .555
That’s Wagner: arguably the hardest pitcher to hit in MLB history.
3. Voters have been kind to closers
It didn’t hurt Wagner that closers have become the easiest position in which to get elected to the Hall of Fame. Starting with the first modern Hall of Fame relievers from the 1970s, Rollie Fingers and Goose Gossage, there are now eight closers in the Hall of Fame (counting Dennis Eckersley as a reliever, although he split his career between starting and relieving).
Among players who produced most of their value in the 1970s or later, the positional breakdown goes like this (leaving aside starting pitchers):
Reliever: 8 (Fingers, Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, Gossage, Hoffman, Lee Smith, Rivera, Wagner)
Catcher: 7 (Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk, Gary Carter, Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez, Ted Simmons, Joe Mauer)
Right field: 7 (Reggie Jackson, Dave Winfield, Tony Gwynn, Vladimir Guerrero, Larry Walker, Dave Parker, Ichiro Suzuki)
First base: 6 (Tony Perez, Eddie Murray, Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome, Fred McGriff, Todd Helton)
Third base: 6 (Mike Schmidt, George Brett, Wade Boggs, Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Adrian Beltre)
Shortstop: 6 (Robin Yount, Ozzie Smith, Cal Ripken, Barry Larkin, Alan Trammell, Derek Jeter)
Second base: 5 (Joe Morgan, Rod Carew, Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar, Craig Biggio)
DH: 5 (Paul Molitor, Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez, Harold Baines, David Ortiz)
Left field: 4 (Willie Stargell, Jim Rice, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines)
Center field: 3 (Kirby Puckett, Andre Dawson, Ken Griffey Jr.)
Hmm. There does seem to be a lesson here that you can interpret either way: There are perhaps too many relievers — or not enough players at the other positions.
CHICAGO — Right-hander Cade Horton was removed after three innings of his start in the Chicago Cubs‘ game against the New York Mets on Tuesday because of back tightness. The club said Horton was removed “as a precaution” after throwing just 29 pitches.
Horton, a leading NL Rookie of the Year candidate, allowed a leadoff homer to New York’s Francisco Lindor but settled down and looked sharp for the remainder of his short outing. Horton allowed two hits, struck out two and departed with the Cubs leading 5-1.
After the Cubs extended the advantage to 6-1, New York rallied against the Chicago bullpen, scoring five unearned runs against Michael Soroka to tie the game and later grabbing the lead in a matchup with playoff implications for both clubs.
Horton, 24, is 11-4 on the season with a 2.67 ERA over 118 innings. The win total leads all rookie pitchers and the ERA leads rookies who have logged at least 100 innings.
CLEVELAND — Guardians designated hitter David Fry was carted off the field in the sixth inning of Tuesday night’s 5-2 win over the Detroit Tigers after being hit in the face by a pitch as he tried to bunt.
Fry squared around on a 99 mph fastball from Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, and the pitch struck him in the nose and mouth area before deflecting off his bat.
As Fry collapsed in the batter’s box and grabbed his face, a visibly shaken Skubal threw off his glove and cap as Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt and trainers rushed onto the field.
Fry laid in the batter’s box for several minutes before being slowly helped to his feet. He was driven off in a cart, and the Guardians later said he was being assessed at Lutheran Medical Center.
Fry was then transferred to the Cleveland Clinic Main Campus, where the team said he was likely to stay overnight for more testing and observation.
Skubal expressed concern afterward and said that he tried reaching out to Fry.
“I just want to make sure he’s all right,” Skubal said. “He seemed OK coming off the field, and hopefully it stays that way. I look forward to, hopefully tonight or tomorrow morning, getting a text from him and making sure he’s all good. There are things that are bigger than the game, and his health is more important than a baseball game.”
Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, paced around the infield as Fry was being helped. The left-hander then threw a wild pitch to George Valera, who replaced Fry, allowing Cleveland to score. Skubal was also called for a balk in the inning as the Guardians rallied for three runs to take a 3-2 lead.
With the win, Cleveland moved into a tie with Detroit for first place in the AL Central. The Guardians were 15½ games behind the Tigers on July 8 and still 12½ games back on Aug. 25.
The 12-team College Football Playoff has significantly broadened the pool of candidates to include any team that has a chance to win its conference — and that makes every FBS race matter longer, as the selection committee’s five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff.
Heading into the final Saturday of September, the shifting continues as conference races are just beginning to heat up.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Spotlight: Ole Miss. The Rebels gained serious top-12 consideration this week after a 4-0 start that included back-to-back wins against SEC opponents (Kentucky and Arkansas) and a 45-10 drubbing of a talented Tulane team. Ole Miss is No. 7 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which means the average top-25 team would have a 47.7% chance to achieve the same record against the same opponents. The real test, though, is on Saturday when Ole Miss hosts LSU (3:30 p.m., ABC). If the Rebels win, they should be undefeated heading into back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma. Those are the most difficult games on the schedule. If the Rebels can go 2-1 against those three opponents, they’d almost certainly be in. ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss a 67% chance to reach the playoff.
The enigma: Texas. The Longhorns dropped out of the top 12 this week because Texas Tech moved in. That doesn’t mean Texas isn’t a playoff team — it just hasn’t proved it yet with wins against San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston. The SEC season opener at Florida on Oct. 4 is also a strange one, as it’s a game the Longhorns could lose but shouldn’t if they are a real playoff team. They’ve got a bye week to prepare for it. A Texas win won’t do much to reassert its place in the national picture, but a loss would be telling. The most likely outcome is the selection committee will learn more about Texas on Oct. 11 against rival Oklahoma, which is in the projected top 12 this week.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Work to do: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina
Big Ten
Spotlight: Indiana. No team saw its playoff chances increase more this week than Indiana, which jumped 28% and now has a 57% chance to reach the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Saturday’s historic beatdown of the Illini pushed the Hoosiers to No. 11 in the latest projection, but that means they would be excluded from the field during the seeding process. IU would get bumped out to make room for Memphis, the projected winner of the American and fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. Because Memphis is currently projected outside of the committee’s top 12 — and projected Big 12 winner Texas Tech is currently in the No. 12 spot — the committee’s No. 11 team is the one that gets bounced. If the Hoosiers continue to dominate, though, they will likely climb to a safer spot within the top 10. Indiana has a tougher playoff path this year than last, as it travels to both Oregon and Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Hoosiers less than a 50% chance to beat the Ducks but projects them to beat Penn State.
The enigma: Michigan. The true identity of this team — whether it’s been with interim head coach Biff Poggi or head coach Sherrone Moore — remains a mystery. The Wolverines continue to develop along with freshman starting quarterback Bryce Underwood, who has rebounded since the Week 2 loss at Oklahoma. Michigan found a way to win at Nebraska, the defense for the most part has been above average, and the Wolverines don’t have to play Penn State or Oregon. With the exception of the regular-season finale against rival Ohio State, Michigan’s toughest game will be on Oct. 11 at USC. The Wolverines most likely need to at least split with those opponents to avoid a third loss. If Michigan can do that and finish as a two-loss team, the selection committee would give the Wolverines serious consideration for a top-12 spot. The question is how many other two-loss teams would be out there — and how their résumés would stack up.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State
Work to do: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, USC, Maryland, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (12.2%), according to ESPN Analytics, behind Florida State and Miami. Georgia Tech doesn’t face either of those teams during the regular season — which is why the Jackets might not lose until the regular-season finale against rival Georgia. And they took the Bulldogs to eight overtimes last year in one of the wildest games of the season. If the Jackets finish as a one-loss team with a close loss to Georgia, they’d be in the ACC title game. Florida State and Miami play each other, so one of them has a guaranteed league loss. Georgia Tech would be a lock with an ACC title, but what if it loses, with its only two losses coming to two conference champions — Georgia and whoever wins the ACC? The committee would have a significant debate about this, and it would depend on how the game unfolded and how many other two-loss teams were out there. It’s hard to imagine the committee excluding the ACC runner-up in that scenario, which means the league could get three teams in.
The enigma: Syracuse. That’s right, the Syracuse team that beat Clemson. On the road. With its backup quarterback finishing the game. Are these guys for real? Their lone loss was to a Tennessee team that remains in the committee’s projected top 12. The wins, though, leave something to prove before Syracuse is taken seriously as a contender in the ACC, let alone the CFP. The Orange needed overtime to beat UConn, and the committee will look right over a 66-24 win against Colgate. It’s going to get more difficult, as the Orange will face Georgia Tech and have back-to-back November road trips to Miami and Notre Dame, with a bye week in between. And if Syracuse is going to keep winning, it’s going to have to do it with backup quarterback Rickie Collins, an LSU transfer. ESPN’s FPI gives the Orange less than a 50% chance to win each of those games and the Oct. 4 trip to SMU.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Florida State, Miami
Work to do: Cal, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia, Wake Forest
Would be out: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, SMU, Stanford, Virginia Tech
Big 12
Spotlight: Iowa State. The Cyclones are still hanging around at 4-0, but Texas Tech has eclipsed them as the team to beat in the Big 12 after Saturday’s win at Utah. The Red Raiders now have the best chance to win the league (28.6%), while Iowa State’s chances of even reaching the game are now seventh best at 13%. The Cyclones’ best win is against rival Iowa, as the season-opening win against K-State in Dublin has been diminished by the Wildcats’ 1-3 start. Iowa State had a bye week to prepare for Saturday’s home game against Arizona, which could be more difficult than it might seem. The key stretch for the Cyclones, though, starts on Oct. 25 against BYU, followed by Arizona State and a Nov. 8 trip to TCU.
The enigma: TCU. Just how good is this Horned Frogs team? The season-opening win at North Carolina caught the nation’s attention for all the wrong reasons — the focus was on Bill Belichick’s first loss as a college coach, not the Frogs’ road win. The 35-24 win against SMU was more impressive, even though it was at home, as it was against the best competition to date and the last scheduled game between the former Southwest Conference rivals. Coach Sonny Dykes has engineered the Frogs to a miracle playoff berth before. Can he do it again? According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, TCU has the third-best chance in the Big 12 to reach the CFP (17.6%). If the Frogs don’t clinch a spot with a Big 12 title, it’s going to be tough to win a debate over other contenders if they finish with two losses.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, UCF, Utah
Would be out: Baylor, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Colorado
Independent
Would be out:Notre Dame. The Irish got their first win on Saturday against Purdue and earned some style points in the process, beating the Boilermakers 56-30. They did exactly what they needed to following an 0-2 start. Now they have to do it nine more times. Even with a 10-2 finish, an at-large bid isn’t a guarantee. It depends on how many other 10-2 teams the committee has to consider, what their résumés are — and what those two losses look like. If nothing else, Notre Dame might finish with two of the best losses in the country.
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. The Tigers jumped into the top G5 spot following their 32-31 win against Arkansas on Saturday. Memphis edged South Florida for lead contender status for a playoff bid as one of the five projected highest-ranked conference champions. Memphis rallied from an 18-point deficit to beat Arkansas, its fourth straight home win against an SEC opponent. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Memphis has a 36% chance to reach the playoff, the best among Group of 5 schools. The American has a 73% chance to send a team to the CFP, as four of the six Group of 5 teams with at least a 5% chance come from that conference (Memphis, North Texas, South Florida and Tulane). Speaking of North Texas …
The enigma: North Texas. Meet the Mean Green, an undefeated team that has wins against Washington State and Army. It took overtime to beat both Army and Western Michigan on the road, but North Texas dismantled Washington State 59-10. South Florida and Navy are the two toughest opponents remaining, but North Texas doesn’t currently have any top-25 teams on its schedule. According to ESPN Analytics, it has the second-best chance to win the American (21.5%) behind Memphis (42.7%). Those teams don’t play each other during the regular season.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV