MLB trade deadline updates, rumors: Why Mets could trade Vientos
The 2025 MLB trade deadline is just around the corner, with contending teams deciding what they need to add before 6 p.m. ET on Thursday.
Could Jarren Duran be on the move from the Boston Red Sox? Will the Arizona Diamondbacks deal Eugenio Suarez and Zac Gallen to contenders? And who among the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies will go all-in to boost their 2025 World Series hopes?
Whether your favorite club is looking to add or deal away — or stands somewhere in between — here’s the freshest intel we’re hearing, reaction to completed deals and what to know for every team as trade season unfolds.
More: Top 50 trade candidates | Passan’s preview | Fantasy spin
Jump to: Latest intel | Completed deals | Previous intel
This week’s MLB trade deadline buzz
July 28
Mets in need of relievers: As we close in on the deadline, the Mets are looking to ideally add two relievers — a center fielder, and possibly an additional hitter to slot in a designated hitter, in the event that their current regular DH Mark Vientos is one of the players they need to include in a deal to address their needs.
White Sox CF Luis Robert Jr. is their top target for the center-field need, with Orioles CF Cedric Mullins as the second option, as Jesse Rogers has noted below. I’m told the White Sox have focused on Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Vientos and Luisangel Acuna in those Robert talks, with the last two being the most realistic options. — Kiley McDaniel
Bader could be a hot commodity: The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees are among the teams that have shown interest in Twins outfielder Harrison Bader, sources told ESPN. Bader is a plus defender batting .255 with 12 home runs and a .777 OPS in 93 games this season. His 2.0 fWAR ranks 30th in the majors among outfielders. He would effectively be a rental for a contender; he signed a one-year deal with $6.25 million guaranteed plus up to $2 million in bonuses that includes a mutual option for 2026. He is likely to opt for free agency to secure a better contract before his age-32 season.
Bader has played for both New York clubs; with the Yankees in 2022 and 2023 and with the Mets last season. The Yankees seek a right-handed-hitting outfielder with Aaron Judge’s flexor strain throwing a wrench into their season. The Mets could use an upgrade in center field. The Dodgers, meanwhile, could use Bader in center field, move Andy Pages to left field and struggling Michael Conforto (.194 batting average and .650 OPS) to the bench. — Jorge Castillo
Yankees keep up search for pitchers: The Yankees continue to work on adding bullpen help, according to rival evaluators, and they have talked with other teams about right-handed-hitting outfielders. Former Yankee Harrison Bader is among those discussed, as well as White Sox outfielder Austin Slater. The Yankees’ bullpen has been the weakest part of the team this year, and they will be among the contenders likely to add relief before the deadline. — Buster Olney
Blue Jays — like most teams — need bullpen help: Toronto is in an increasingly commanding position in the AL East, and one of the advantages the Blue Jays have is the flexibility of their position player group. They have a handful of players who can change spots according to the day-to-day needs of manager John Schneider. Like so many contending teams, the Jays are working to add bullpen help, according to rival evaluators, from the enormous pool of available relievers. — Olney
Yankees looking for pitching help: The Yankees’ focus is now on adding pitchers — both a starter and multiple relievers — after upgrading their position player group with the additions of Ryan McMahon and Amed Rosario over the weekend.
As Kiley McDaniel notes below, Nationals All-Star left-hander MacKenzie Gore is a possible option if the Yankees are willing to pay a steep price.
New York has also shown interest in the Pirates’ available arms, a source told ESPN. Right-handed starter Mitch Keller, left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson and right-handed relievers David Bednar and Dennis Santana are among the pitchers Pittsburgh could move before Thursday’s deadline.
Landing Keller, a quality midrotation starter, would also require a hefty haul since the veteran is under contract over the next three seasons for about $54.5 million. So would adding Bednar, who is one of the top relievers available and under team control through next season. — Castillo
July 27
Mets are scouring CF market — and Robert could play a big part: The New York Mets are keeping an eye on centerfielders Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles and Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox.
Robert returned to the lineup on Sunday as the designated hitter after missing the previous two games due to groin tightness. Before getting hurt, he was easily having the best month he has had over the past two seasons, hitting .351 with a .442 OBP in July. The White Sox have been waiting for an increase in prospect capital to move forward on a deal. It’s possible they finally get it this week; but they could always pick up the option in his contract this offseason and do this all over again next year. Robert’s production this month has teams intrigued. — Jesse Rogers
Not all White Sox players are on the table: The Chicago White Sox are holding out for a decent prospect return for starter Adrian Houser, who is likely to get moved by the deadline — unless teams just don’t believe in his 2.10 ERA over 11 starts. The Sox would love a 10th-to-20th-ranked prospect from an opposing organization’s farm system for him; though, teams are likely to lean toward the lower end of that instead of what Chicago prefers, closer to the higher end. The New York Yankees were among teams scouting Houser this weekend. He pitched another good one against the Chicago Cubs on Friday.
Meanwhile, depth outfielder Mike Tauchman isn’t likely to get traded. While Chicago still has another year of team control over him, the coaching staff has raved about his influence within its young clubhouse. He would be more valuable on the open market if he could play center field, but leg issues are a concern, and the White Sox aren’t likely to get much in prospect return for him. — Rogers
The market for one Marlins starter could be heating up: Teams unwilling or unable to meet the demands for Joe Ryan and MacKenzie Gore, two controllable starters who are more likely to stay put than move at this point, could easily pivot to Miami Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera. The 27-year-old is controllable through the 2028 season and has been on a really good run, posting a 2.47 ERA since the start of May.
Another Marlins pitcher, Sandy Alcantara, has been the big name bandied about on the trade front all year, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be moved. Alcantara has struggled in his initial return from Tommy John surgery and is controllable for an additional two years. And the Marlins — surging of late, with 20 wins in their past 28 games — can easily justify holding on to him if they are not blown away by offers. At this point, Cabrera seems more likely to be traded. — Alden Gonzalez
Gore’s market is stalled for now: Jesse Rogers noted below (July 24 update) that the Chicago Cubs are looking to add a starting pitcher with years of control and would consider including a young position player, though hopefully not a top prospect, to make that happen. MacKenzie Gore is one of those targets, and the key player the Washington Nationals are rumored to want in a return package is Matt Shaw, who isn’t yet on the table and graduated from prospect status this season with 71 MLB games.
The New York Yankees are also shopping for a starting pitcher and have some young position players of interest to rivals, but they aren’t keen on including either of their top prospects, George Lombard Jr. or Spencer Jones. If they change that stance, they could be a dark horse fit with the Nats on Gore. — McDaniel
Boston should target Tampa Bay’s Diaz: The Tampa Bay Rays‘ struggles over the past month have really surprised other teams — and the Rays’ staffers, too — and now they could shift to become dealers at the deadline. Tampa Bay first baseman Yandy Diaz would be an absolutely perfect fit for the Boston Red Sox. He’s making $10 million this year (the Red Sox would be on the hook for about a third of that), and he has a very attractive $12 million option for 2026. — Olney
Could Ozuna be one of the Braves on the move? The Atlanta Braves might be the most disappointing team in the big leagues this year, and now they are fully prepared to execute a minor sell-off before the deadline, moving relievers Raisel Iglesias (who is making $16 million this year) and Pierce Johnson ($7 million, with a $7 million option for 2026) and maybe others. Marcell Ozuna, benched recently when manager Brian Snitker decided to devote the DH spot to catchers Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin, has 10-5 rights and can veto any trade proposal, which means the Braves are unlikely to engage any team in trade talks about Ozuna. If another team calls the Braves, however, to ask about his availability, then they will ask Ozuna if he would accept a move. The market for DHs is extremely limited, and Atlanta would presumably have to eat at least some of the $5 million or so owed to the slugger for the rest of this season. — Olney
Look for Texas to now be aggressive at the deadline: If you were to line up all the MLB president of baseball operations and general managers on a spectrum from most competitive to least, the peers of Rangers GM Chris Young would probably pick him to be the most competitive — which is why other teams assume that with Texas surging in the standings of late, the Rangers will be adding before the deadline. A few weeks ago, the assumption among those other clubs was that the Rangers would become dealers and perhaps move Adolis Garcia and others. But they have won eight of nine since the All-Star break and start Sunday just a half-game out of the third wild-card position. And remember, in 2023, Texas limped into the postseason and wound up winning the World Series. — Olney
Can Mets find an ace at deadline? The market has been very thin in teams offloading, but according to sources, the Mets continue to look around to see whether there’s a match for a starting pitcher capable of taking the ball for a Game 1, Game 2 or Game 3 of a postseason series. Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks could be that guy, or maybe it’s Seth Lugo of the Royals, or the Padres’ Dylan Cease. Perhaps it’s one of the two big-time starters who will be under team control beyond this season, the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara or the Twins’ Joe Ryan. The Mets’ rotation was exceptional early in the year, before injuries and natural regression began to take a toll, and the team could use a boost in the front end of this group as they fight the Phillies for NL East supremacy. — Olney
Which way will deadline bubble teams go? The staredown continues as deadline week begins, with perhaps as many as a half-dozen teams waiting to declare their status. “This weekend is big for a lot of teams,” said one evaluator.
The Rays, who appeared to be gathering momentum a month ago, are now just a game over .500, and given the organization’s longstanding focus on maximizing the value of their players, some rival evaluators think they could now be considering dealing some pieces away.
The St. Louis Cardinals are two games over .500, with the industry waiting to see whether they will deal closer Ryan Helsley. The expectation is that they will, given the tough NL playoff landscape. The Tigers could be interested, maybe the Phillies, Mets, Dodgers or Yankees.
The Los Angeles Angels are now five games under .500, and the presumption is that they will eventually move some players before the deadline, but the Angels don’t always operate in the way teams typically do. Taylor Ward has drawn interest from other organizations. — Olney
Completed deal tracker
Brewers acquire catcher from Rays
The Milwaukee Brewers are working to finalize a deal to acquire catcher Danny Jansen from the Tampa Bay Rays, sources tell ESPN. The Rays are also working to acquire catcher Nick Fortes from the Miami Marlins, sources confirm to ESPN.
Tigers bolster pitching staff
The Detroit Tigers receive RHP Chris Paddack and RHP Randy Dobnak from the Minnesota Twins for C/1B Enrique Jimenez, sources tell ESPN. Story » | Grades »
Braves add veteran rotation arm
The Atlanta Braves acquired veteran starting pitcher Erick Fedde from the St. Louis Cardinals for a player to be named later or cash. As part of the deal, the Cardinals will cover the majority of what remains of Fedde’s 2025 salary of $7.5 million. Story »
Yankees make another deal for infield depth
The New York Yankees acquired utility man Amed Rosario from the Washington Nationals for two minor leaguers. Story »
Royals get outfielder in trade with D-backs
The Kansas City Royals acquired veteran outfielder Randal Grichuk from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for right-hander Andrew Hoffmann. Story »
Yankees land infielder McMahon in deal with Rockies
The New York Yankees are acquiring third baseman Ryan McMahon in a trade with the Colorado Rockies. Story » | Grades »
Mets get bullpen help from O’s
The New York Mets have acquired left-handed reliever Gregory Soto from the Baltimore Orioles. Story » | Grades »
Mariners start trade season with deal for Naylor
The Seattle Mariners have acquired first baseman Josh Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks for left-hander Brandyn Garcia and right-hander Ashton. Story » | Grades »
Previous deadline buzz
July 25 updates
Will the Royals trade Lugo — or extend him? Seth Lugo is an intriguing name in the trade market, but rival evaluators don’t sense the Royals are especially motivated to make a deal. Kansas City could also use this moment to explore an extension with Lugo, to keep their deep well of starting pitching intact. — Buster Olney
Angels’ deadline plans coming into focus: Any confusion about whether the Angels will add or subtract ahead of the trade deadline has seemingly cleared up in recent days, with a four-game losing streak that has them five games under .500.
The Angels are telling teams their pending free agents are available, sources with knowledge of the situation said. That includes third baseman Yoan Moncada, utility infielder Luis Rengifo, starting pitcher Tyler Anderson and closer Kenley Jansen. Left fielder Taylor Ward, controllable through 2026, can also be had with the right deal.
The Angels famously never rebuild under owner Arte Moreno and are prone to adding even in times when they seem like long shots to contend — most notably in 2023, when they not only held on to Shohei Ohtani but also traded for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez before collapsing in August.
At this time last year, they tried to move the likes of Anderson and Rengifo but did not believe they would have received enough back to justify holding on to them through the following season. And so it is worth noting: Even if the Angels do decide to punt on 2025, their goal would be to contend again next season.
Any moves they make would probably be geared toward that. By trading away rentals, the Angels will try to use the trade deadline to add accomplished players who can help the team next year. — Alden Gonzalez
What the Astros might be looking for: The Astros’ best fit in a hitter is someone who could play second base or left field, and they can move Jose Altuve accordingly. Per FanGraphs, the Astros have a 94.5% chance to reach the postseason; they lead the Mariners by five games in the AL West. — Buster Olney
How Arizona could shape the trade deadline: The Diamondbacks informed other teams in the past that they would “probably” be dealing away players, but even after trading Josh Naylor to Seattle, it’s unclear just how far Arizona will go. If the D-Backs decided to go all-in on trading veterans, they could reshape their organization significantly, by moving free-agents-to-be Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and, of course, Eugenio Suarez.
The perception of other front offices is that Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick does not want to completely offload, especially with the Dodgers drifting back toward the pack in the NL West — and as of Thursday night, Suarez wasn’t even officially on the market.
The Diamondbacks, who reached the World Series in 2023 after winning just 84 games during the regular season, won their first three games after the All-Star break, but have subsequently lost three in a row. What some rival evaluators believe is that if the D-Backs keep dealing, it’ll be because of a nudge from the front office. Arizona has been extensively scouting other organizations in preparation. — Buster Olney
White Sox starter drawing interest from contenders: About a half-dozen or more scouts will be in attendance at Rate Field on Friday night when Adrian Houser takes the mound for the White Sox. He has compiled a 1.89 ERA in 10 starts for Chicago after being picked up midseason. Teams don’t believe they’ll have to give up a lot to acquire him, and he could make for a good back-end starter or depth piece for a contender. The White Sox are likely to move him at his peak, and Friday could be the final look for those who are interested. — Jesse Rogers
July 24 updates
Could Mets land this deadline’s top slugger? Eugenio Suarez could be an intriguing option for the Mets as they’ve gotten little production out of Mark Vientos at third base. And if things work out and Suarez wants to stay — and they want him to — he could also provide protection for the Mets at first base in case Pete Alonso moves on next season. The Mets rank 23rd in OPS at third, so why wouldn’t they inquire about Suarez, knowing they can hand the position back to Vientos in 2026 if they wish. — Jesse Rogers
July 23 updates
Houston is in the market for a third baseman: Add the Astros to the list of contenders looking for a third baseman. With All-Star Isaac Paredes expected to miss significant time because of what manager Joe Espada described as a “pretty serious” right hamstring strain, the Astros have begun poking around for available third basemen. One of them is the Rockies’ Ryan McMahon, who also has drawn interest from a few other clubs.
The 30-year-old represents a solid veteran option. McMahon is slashing .217/.314/.403 with 16 home runs, and the metrics indicate he has been one of the top defensive third basemen in the majors this season. He is under contract over the next two seasons for $32 million, so he wouldn’t be just a rental, which should raise the Rockies’ asking price. — Jorge Castillo
A big addition to the available deadline starting pitching options? A surprise name has emerged in the starting pitcher market: Dylan Cease, who will be eligible for free agency at year’s end. Perception of other teams is that the Padres are intent on making a push for the playoffs and would use Cease to help fill other roster needs. Mets, AL East teams, Cubs among teams that have talked about him. — Buster Olney
How Cubs are approaching deadline: The Cubs are looking for a starting pitcher first and foremost, but won’t part with any top prospects for rentals. They would be willing to trade a young hitter for a cost-controlled pitcher or one already under contract past this season. They are desperate to add an arm who can help while Jameson Taillon recovers from a calf injury. Bullpen games in Taillon’s place haven’t gone well. — Jesse Rogers
Will Twins trade top pitchers? Several high-profile teams are in need of bullpen help ahead of the trade deadline — including the Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers — and the Twins have two of the best available in Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. The sense is that at least one of them will be traded, but those who are looking for relief help expect the asking price to be very high, partly because both of them are controllable through 2027 and partly because the Twins’ uncertain ownership situation has clouded the approach with those who are not pending free agents.
The Twins are widely expected to trade outfielder Harrison Bader, super-utility player Willi Castro, starter Chris Paddack and lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. But Jax, Duran and young starter Joe Ryan are the ones who would bring back the biggest return. The Twins are said to be listening on everyone. But the team being up for sale since October, and in limbo ever since prospective buyer Justin Ishbia increased his ownership stake in the White Sox in early June, has complicated matters with longer-term players. — Alden Gonzalez
July 22 updates
An Orioles starting pitcher to watch: It seems very likely that Charlie Morton (3.47 ERA last 12 appearances) will be traded, within a relatively thin starting pitching market with a lot of teams looking for rotation help — the Padres, Yankees, maybe the Mets or Astros; a number of teams have expressed interest. In the past, Morton has had a preference to pitch for a team closer to the East Coast and his Florida home, but he doesn’t control that. O’s GM Mike Elias does. — Buster Olney
Will Cleveland deal All-Star outfielder? The player asked about the most on the Guardians’ roster is Steven Kwan, but given that he is two and a half years away from free agency, it’s unlikely he’ll be traded, according to sources. Kwan’s slash line this year: .288/.352/.398. He also has 11 stolen bases and has made consecutive All-Star appearances. — Olney
Braves not looking to move Murphy: Sean Murphy‘s name has been tossed around in trade speculation, but according to sources, he will not be available. Atlanta’s catcher is playing well this year and will be playing under a high-value contract for the next three seasons — $15 million per year from 2026 to 2028, plus a team option in ’29. And the Braves are set up well with the right-handed-hitting Murphy and left-handed-hitting Drake Baldwin perhaps sharing the catching and DH spots into the future. — Olney
Why the 2022 Cy Young winner isn’t the most in-demand Marlins starter: Edward Cabrera has become more coveted than Sandy Alcantara, who teams believe might take an offseason to fix. Alcantara’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is scary low — just 1.9 — and his ERA is 7.14. Cabrera, on the other hand, is striking out more than a batter per inning and his ERA sits at 3.61. The 27-year-old right-hander will come at a heavy cost for opposing teams. — Jesse Rogers
How Kansas City is approaching the trade deadline: The Royals have signaled a willingness to trade, but with an eye toward competing again next year — meaning they aren’t willing to part with the core of their pitching staff. Other teams say Kansas City is (unsurprisingly) looking to upgrade its future offense in whatever it does.
Right-handed starter Seth Lugo will be the most-watched Royal before the deadline, since he holds a $15 million player option for 2026 “that you’d assume he’s going to turn down,” said one rival staffer. That’ll make it more difficult for other teams to place a trade value on him: The Royals could want to market him as more than a mere rental, while other teams figure he’ll go into free agency in the fall when he turns down his option. — Olney
What the Dodgers need at the deadline: The Dodgers’ offense has been a source of consternation lately, with Max Muncy out, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman slumping, and key hitters tasked with lengthening out the lineup — Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edman and Michael Conforto — also struggling.
But the Dodgers’ focus ahead of the deadline is still clearly the bullpen, specifically a high-leverage, right-handed reliever. Dodgers relievers lead the major leagues in innings pitched by a wide margin. Blake Treinen will be back soon, and Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol are expected to join him later in the season. But the Dodgers need at least one other trusted arm late in games.
It’s a stunning development, considering they returned the core of a bullpen that played a big role in last year’s championship run, then added Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates in free agency. But Scott and Yates have had their struggles, and there are enough injury concerns with several others that it’s a need. — Alden Gonzalez
Which D-backs starter is most coveted? The Diamondbacks are getting as many calls — if not more — about Zac Gallen as they are for Merrill Kelly, even though the latter starting pitcher is having the better season. Teams interested in adding to their rotations still have more faith in the 29-year-old Gallen than the 36-year-old Kelly. — Rogers
Who are the White Sox looking to deal? Chicago’s Adrian Houser seems likely to move, as a second-tier starter who has performed well this season. The 32-year-old right-hander was released by the Rangers in May but has been very effective since joining the White Sox rotation, giving up only two homers in 57⅔ innings and generating an ERA+ of 226. Nobody is taking those numbers at face value, but evaluators do view him as a market option. The White Sox also have some relievers worth considering.
But it seems unlikely that Luis Robert Jr. — once projected as a centerpiece of this deadline — will be dealt, unless a team makes a big bet on a player who has either underperformed or been hurt this year. The White Sox could continue to wait on Robert’s talent to manifest and his trade value to be restored by picking up his $20 million option for next year, which is hardly out of the question for a team with little future payroll obligation. — Olney
Why Rockies infielder could be popular deadline option: Colorado’s Ryan McMahon is the consolation prize for teams that miss out on Eugenio Suarez — if he’s traded at all. The Cubs could have interest and would pair him with Matt Shaw as a lefty/righty combo at third base. — Rogers
Does San Diego have enough to offer to make a big deal? The Padres have multiple needs ahead of the trade deadline — a left fielder, a catcher, a back-end starter. How adequately they can address them remains to be seen. The upper levels of their farm system have thinned out in recent years, and their budget might be tight.
The Padres dipped under MLB’s luxury-tax threshold last year, resetting the penalties. But FanGraphs projects their competitive balance tax payroll to finish at $263 million this year, easily clearing the 2025 threshold and just barely putting them into the second tier, triggering a 12% surcharge.
Padres general manager A.J. Preller might have to get creative in order to address his needs. One way he can do that is by buying and selling simultaneously. The Padres have several high-profile players who can hit the market this offseason — Dylan Cease, Michael King, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez — and a few others who can hit the open market after 2026. Don’t be surprised to see Preller leverage at least one of those players, and their salaries, to help fill multiple needs. — Gonzalez
Which Orioles could be on the move? Not surprisingly, Baltimore is perceived as a dealer and is expected by other teams to move center fielder Cedric Mullins, first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn and some relievers. — Olney
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Bill Connelly
Repeat after me: Most teams will lose another game.
We’re just close enough to the finish line of the regular season that we start to think things are locked into place. Oklahoma is the “first one out” in the College Football Playoff rankings — the Sooners are in trouble! Texas is 10th — the Longhorns are in! Five teams have one conference loss atop the ACC and American Conference; therefore, we’re guaranteed huge logjams with gross tiebreakers.
Maybe. But most teams will lose another game. There’s about a 1-in-3 chance that we end up with even a three-way tie of 7-1 teams atop the American, 1-in-5 in the ACC. Of the teams right on the borderline of the playoff — say, the ones ranked eighth through 14th — only one has greater than a 54% chance of winning out between now and Championship Weekend, and there’s only about a 0.1% chance they all do.
There’s still a lot of football to be played, in other words. Week 12 gives us a couple of games pitting new guard versus old guard in SEC country, plus high-leverage contests in Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Harrisonburg, Virginia. Here’s everything you need to follow on a big-as-ever mid-November Saturday.
All times Eastern, all games on Saturday unless otherwise noted.
New SEC vs. Old SEC
Well, this is convenient scheduling. The SEC’s two sparkly, new, big-brand programs are both on the borderline of a possible playoff bid, and both need to come up big on the road against the programs that have basically served as the league’s final bosses for the past 16 years. The storylines sometimes write themselves.
No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia (7:30 p.m., ABC)
For all of the ups and downs of this season — Arch Manning‘s repeated struggles, the whiplash combination of a loss to Florida and a blowout of Oklahoma — the Longhorns are still in solid playoff shape, but they’ll need to go at least 2-1 (and maybe 3-0) against Georgia, Arkansas and Texas A&M.
With the season on the line two weeks ago against Vanderbilt, coach Steve Sarkisian took Texas’ offense back to basics in a very Sarkisian way, with lots of eye candy and quick passes to the perimeter. Manning completed 25 of 33 passes for 328 yards and 3 touchdowns — great stats considering he didn’t complete a pass thrown more than 17 yards downfield.
Manning completed 11 passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, and Texas gained 172 yards, a level of risk-free explosiveness every offense craves. The Longhorns might generate success with this type of passing against Georgia as well. The Bulldogs are elite in run defense and prevent big plays really well, but they create almost no negative plays and force almost no turnovers. They trust their ability to adapt in-game and force the issue when they have to, but on passes thrown within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, they rank 90th in yards allowed per attempt (5.7). If the Dawgs struggle in this regard, it will negate their advantages against a poor Texas running game, and they’ll allow Manning to avoid the passing downs in which he has often struggled.
Actually, expect a lot of short, crisp passes no matter who has the ball. That has also been Georgia’s approach.
In terms of risk-free explosiveness, Zachariah Branch has been one of the better players in the SEC. Of his 53 receptions, 31 have been caught behind the line, but he is averaging 8.3 yards after the catch, with eight receptions of 20-plus yards. He tests a defense’s discipline, and the running game has improved enough to give the Dawgs many ways to stay on schedule. Texas’ defense is the best Georgia has seen. The Horns are dynamite against the run, and starting safeties Michael Taaffe and Jelani McDonald are expected to play after recent injuries.
Current line: UGA -5.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 4.4 | FPI projection: UGA by 2.3
No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama (3:30 p.m., ABC)
A year ago, Oklahoma manhandled a two-loss Alabama team, knocking the Crimson Tide from playoff contention with a 24-3 upset. OU now heads to Tuscaloosa for just the second time (and first time as an SEC member), cast as the two-loss team that probably can’t afford a blowout road loss.
In their first must-win, two weeks ago in Knoxville, the Sooners treaded water for a half, getting dominated statistically but surviving on turnovers, then played superior second-half ball in a 33-27 win over Tennessee. They probably can’t afford another poor first half, and that might be a problem because Alabama is one of the best first-half teams in the country. The Crimson Tide can’t always apply the dagger — they almost let Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina all complete second-half comeback wins — but their scoring margin is plus-108 before halftime (and minus-3 in the third quarter).
Bama has averaged just 4.9 yards per play and a decent 23.4 points per game against SP+ top-30 defenses. Ranked third, OU’s defense is by far the best the Tide have faced, though it might not be at full strength if end R Mason Thomas and tackle Jayden Jackson, both listed as questionable, can’t go.
OU leads the nation in rushing success rate* allowed, while Bama’s run game ranks 109th. Ty Simpson and the Tide will have to succeed through the air, but the Sooners also rank ninth in passing success rate allowed. If the Tide get to even 23 points, they should be thrilled.
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)
Can OU get to 23, then? Bama has shown some vulnerability against the run, and the Sooners’ run game has perked up of late, with 239-pound sophomore running back Xavier Robinson grinding out 224 yards in the past two games. With quarterback John Mateer using his legs as well, OU’s offense has been excellent in the red zone, and the Sooners might get away with creating fewer scoring chances. Still, in his past four games, Mateer has averaged just 5.0 yards per dropback. That probably won’t get it done if you’re hunting for a huge road win.
Current line: Bama -6.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 1.3 | FPI projection: Bama by 5.8
The last big test for Notre Dame
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 22 Pitt (noon, ABC)
In 2017, Miami was second in the nation and two wins from a CFP berth. But freshman Kenny Pickett produced three touchdowns (one passing, two rushing), and unranked Pitt shocked the Hurricanes 24-14. Miami lost out from there.
In 2003, Virginia Tech, ranked fifth, visited Heinz Field, having just blown out No. 2 Miami. Rod Rutherford threw two touchdown passes (one to some guy named Larry Fitzgerald) and rushed for another, and No. 25 Pitt beat the Hokies 31-28. Tech went on to lose four of five.
Once per decade, Pitt absolutely ruins a top team’s season at home. It hasn’t happened in the 2020s, but maybe we’re due? Notre Dame visits Pitt, needing three more wins to secure another CFP bid, but considering the last two are against Syracuse (98% win probability, per SP+) and Stanford (97%), this is the big one.
After losing to Miami and Texas A&M to start the season, the Fighting Irish have won seven straight games by an average of 41-14. But aside from USC, Pitt is the best team they’ve played in this span. That’s an incredible thing to say if you watched the Panthers in September.
Pitt began the year 2-2, but somehow, coach Pat Narduzzi saved the season by installing a freshman quarterback. Mason Heintschel has charged straight into the top 25 in my power-conference quarterback rankings; he leaves the pocket quite a bit and fires the ball to a trio of explosive receivers in Kenny Johnson, Raphael Williams Jr. and Cataurus Hicks. Heintschel’s Panthers have won five straight, and the last one came without injured star running back Desmond Reid. Reid is expected to play Saturday, and if he can find success between the tackles against a banged-up Notre Dame front, that would help the freshman significantly.
Pitt’s defense is uniquely aggressive. The Panthers are second nationally in yards allowed per carry, they’re seventh in pressure rate, and they force quarterbacks to make big throws that college passers often can’t make. (They could also be healthier than they’ve been in a while if linebacker Rasheem Biles and safety Cruce Brookins return as expected.) That will put a lot on the shoulders of Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr. But Carr might be OK with that.
If he were a bit more mobile, Carr’s radar chart would be a nearly perfect circle. The redshirt freshman is seventh on my QBs list and 10th in Total QBR, and the Irish are far more capable of creating big-pass plays this year because of Carr and speedy targets such as Malachi Fields and Will Pauling. Pitt might be more capable than most of bottling up surging running back Jeremiyah Love, but that doesn’t mean Carr can’t beat them.
Current line: Irish -12.5 (up from -10.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Irish by 7.2 | FPI projection: Irish by 8.1
Chaos likely continues in the ACC
The ACC is a beautiful mess. Five teams have one conference loss — Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pitt, SMU and Duke — and there are only two remaining head-to-heads among them. But those head-to-heads mean that, at most, three teams can finish at 7-1: This week’s Virginia-Duke winner (about a 72% chance, per SP+), next week’s Georgia Tech-Pitt winner (currently 65%) and SMU (40%).
There’s only a 19% chance that three teams reach 7-1 and a 45% chance that two do. The latter would be clean and easy, but that doesn’t appear to be something this conference believes in.
No. 19 Virginia at Duke (3:30 p.m., ESPN2)
Duke is the ACC’s doom scenario. The Blue Devils went 1-3 in nonconference play with losses at Tulane and UConn — why the hell are you playing at both Tulane and UConn?? — but they’re 4-1 in the ACC, and the projected favorites in each remaining game. If they win the league, would they get into the CFP over a second Group of 5 team like a hypothetical 12-1 James Madison?
Duke’s defense has imploded in Manny Diaz’s second season, but the offense has scored at least 34 points in five of its past six games. Quarterback Darian Mensah and the Blue Devils will score Saturday. Will Virginia? Quarterback Chandler Morris left the Wake Forest loss because of a head/neck injury, but the team seems optimistic that he’ll be ready to play.
The Cavaliers’ offense has underachieved against projections by double digits in three of the past four games, though, and Morris was healthy for most of that stretch. That’s a bad sign, but if UVA can keep it close in the second half, the advantage shifts: The Hoos are 4-2 in one-score finishes, while Duke is 1-2.
Current line: Duke -4.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Duke by 1.6 | FPI projection: Duke by 2.5
No. 16 Georgia Tech at Boston College (3:30 p.m., ACCN)
Per SP+, the Boston College offense is its worst in three years, and the Eagles’ defense is their worst since 1978. Georgia Tech has its own defensive issues, but nothing like that. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets are coming off a bye week, in which the gutty Haynes King — maybe the hottest QB in the country this side of Julian Sayin — got a much-needed Saturday off from getting hit repeatedly.
Assuming the Jackets survive this one, they’ll face two enormous home games to finish the regular season. First, they’ll play Pitt with a potential ACC championship game bid on the line; then they’ll play Georgia in a revenge attempt that coach Brent Key has been dreaming about for a year. This will be fun.
Current line: Tech -16.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 18.6 | FPI projection: Tech by 14.3
It’s all happening in Tier 4
For the past few weeks, I’ve been referencing playoff tiers. The three teams in Tier 1 are all but certain to reach the CFP, while five teams in Tier 2 average around an 86% chance, and each of the three in Tier 3 is around 50-50.
Tier 4, meanwhile, is the Thunderdome, with 10 or 11 teams fighting for what might be two bids at most. A large portion of Tier 4 is involved in the ACC title race, but others have work to do in Week 12.
No. 21 Iowa at No. 17 USC (3:30 p.m., BTN)
Iowa has lost three games, including two against top-10 opponents, by 10 combined points. I appreciate that the CFP committee still ranks the Hawkeyes, even though the AP has been underrating them all season, and their much-improved run game could do serious damage against a USC defense that ranks 126th in rushing success rate allowed. The Trojans are solid against the pass, but that doesn’t really matter in an Iowa game.
When USC has the ball, it’s elite versus elite. The Trojans rank fourth in points per drive, and Iowa’s defense is seventh. The Hawkeyes have played against two top-15 offenses (per SP+) and have allowed 31 total points; USC played against two top-15 defenses and scored 55. What happens in this one? And what role might the weather play? The forecast suggests early-afternoon downpours (and maybe some thunder) in L.A. It’s rude of the Hawkeyes to bring their weather with them.
Current line: USC -6.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 4.5 | FPI projection: USC by 7.5
Clemson at No. 20 Louisville (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Clemson might — might — finally be figuring things out. The Tigers have averaged 37 points per game in Cade Klubnik‘s past four starts, and after getting torched by SMU and Duke, the defense showed up and shut down Florida State last week.
Clemson’s defensive front isn’t as disruptive as expected, but it might be good enough to give Louisville problems. Though running back injuries have been problematic for the Cardinals, the fact that they’ve gained zero or fewer yards on 34.0% of their snaps this year (106th nationally) is even more damaging. If quarterback Miller Moss doesn’t have time in the pocket, Louisville might be eliminated from the ACC and CFP hunts by Saturday morning.
Current line: Louisville -2.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 5.9 | FPI projection: Louisville by 1.2
No. 13 Utah at Baylor (7 p.m., ESPN2)
Baylor’s defense has held the Bears back all season, allowing 37 points per game in four losses. But it’s coming off by far its best performance of the season in a 30-3 blowout of UCF, and it generally prevents big plays pretty well.
Of course, Utah doesn’t make big plays and still blows out teams. The Utes’ seven wins have come by an average of 36 points, and they’ve lost only to the Big 12’s two highest-ranked teams. Quarterback Devon Dampier pilots a devastatingly efficient attack, and Utah might have the best defense Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson has seen all year.
Current line: Utah -7.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 13.5 | FPI projection: Utah by 8.7
No. 18 Michigan at Northwestern (noon, Fox)
I expected Northwestern to give USC more of a challenge in last week’s 38-17 loss, but the Wildcats get an immediate shot at redemption against Michigan. This one might stay close because of lack of tempo alone — don’t expect more than 10-11 drives for either team — and if Caleb Komolafe and Northwestern’s running game can get going against a merely solid Michigan run defense, this one could get tense at Wrigley Field. Of course, if the Wolverines force Northwestern behind schedule regularly, this one has 24-6 written all over it.
Current line: Michigan -11.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 11.4 | FPI projection: Michigan by 9.0
NC State at No. 15 Miami (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Miami handled Syracuse just fine last week, but the offense has underachieved against SP+ projections by nearly a touchdown per game since Week 3. A lack of big plays holds back the Canes, but NC State’s defense is, shall we say, quite accommodating in that regard. And with the way NC State quarterback CJ Bailey has played lately, basically every Wolfpack game has track meet potential.
Current line: Miami -15.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 17.2 | FPI projection: Miami by 15.0
This week in the Group of 5
In the American Conference, four teams could finish 7-1. This week’s USF-Navy winner has excellent odds (about 81%, per SP+), while North Texas is at 73%, Tulane 45% and East Carolina 24%. There’s only a 6% chance that they all get there, but there’s still about a 1-in-3 chance for three to finish with one conference loss.
We’re only starting to figure out who will get the Group of 5’s CFP bid, in other words. And though four contenders — USF, Tulane, North Texas and Sun Belt favorite James Madison — are pretty much double-digit favorites Saturday, here’s where I break out the odds again: There’s only a 45% chance they all win. Intrigue!
No. 24 South Florida at Navy (noon, ESPN2)
The thing about being as good (and frequent) a rusher as Navy’s Blake Horvath is that you will get hit. A lot. He suffered an injury in Navy’s loss to North Texas and missed the loss to Notre Dame. If he plays, he and the Midshipmen could hog the ball and keep USF’s up-tempo offense on the sideline. But the Bulls have scored at least 48 in five of their past six games; they might score on every drive, regardless.
Current line: USF -9.5 | SP+ projection: USF by 6.6 | FPI projection: USF by 10.3
Florida Atlantic at Tulane (4 p.m., ESPN+)
FAU plays at a ridiculous tempo and goes for it on fourth down whenever possible. The Owls are explosive enough to damage a Tulane defense that ranks 92nd in points per drive and has given up 80 points in the past two weeks. FAU’s defense is much worse, however. Even in a track meet, Jake Retzlaff and the Green Wave have the edge.
Current line: Tulane -17.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 13.4 | FPI projection: Tulane by 14.3
North Texas at UAB (2 p.m., ESPN+)
This one’s similar to FAU-Tulane. UAB can wing the ball around and score some points, but the Blazers have given up at least 24 points in every game and at least 38 in five. Drew Mestemaker and the North Texas offense average 44.4 points and 487.8 yards per game. UAB already played its miracle card in the upset of Memphis; the Blazers probably don’t have another one.
Current line: UNT -18.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 22.3 | FPI projection: UNT by 16.4
Appalachian State at James Madison (3:30 p.m., ESPN+)
App State was a pleasant surprise at 4-2, but the Mountaineers have lost three straight one-score games, and now they have to head to JMU to face quarterback Alonza Barnett III and a Dukes offense that has scored 150 combined points in its past three games. App wrecked JMU’s unbeaten start in 2023, its last trip to Harrisonburg, but this one would be quite the upset.
Current line: JMU -20.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 22.7 | FPI projection: JMU by 17.3
Week 12 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to Virginia’s loss to Wake Forest last Saturday, we’ve won in back-to-back weeks to move to 6-5 for the season.
Let’s make it three in a row! I basically crafted a superfecta in talking about the G5 games above, but here’s another one: SP+ says there’s only a 45% chance that Michigan (76% win probability against Northwestern), Utah (80% against Baylor), Miami (86% against NC State) and Ole Miss (86% against Florida) all win. Which one do you think goes down?
Week 12 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Minnesota at No. 8 Oregon (9 p.m., Fox). The Big Ten-ification of Oregon continues: The Ducks have won their past two games by scores of 21-7 and 18-16. They just survived a cold, wet rock fight in Iowa City, and if Minnesota’s defense actually plays well on the road for the first time all year — a big if at this point — Oregon could end up in another one. But apparently, the Ducks are good at them!
Current line: Oregon -25.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 25.5 | FPI projection: Oregon by 25.4
Early Saturday
South Carolina at No. 3 Texas A&M (noon, ESPN). Under Shane Beamer, South Carolina is 3-18 as an underdog in September and October but 6-4 in November. The Gamecocks are trudging through a lost season, but they are still athletic and dangerous. Of course, A&M might be upset-proof at this point. The Aggies have overachieved against SP+ projections by 12.2 points per game since the start of October.
Current line: A&M -19.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 21.5 | FPI projection: A&M by 12.5
Wisconsin at No. 2 Indiana (noon, BTN). Indiana has played six teams ranked worse than 60th in SP+ and has won those games by an average of 51-9. Wisconsin is 90th. The Badgers’ defense has rounded into form, and freshman QB Carter Smith added a decent dimension to the run game in last week’s upset of Washington, but … no. Hoosiers roll.
Current line: IU -29.5 | SP+ projection: IU by 34.6 | FPI projection: IU by 28.7
Arizona at No. 25 Cincinnati (noon, FS1). Next week, Cincinnati hosts BYU in a game that might make the difference in a Big 12 championship game bid. But first, the Bearcats have to survive an Arizona team that has won two straight and still has a shot at eight or nine wins. The Wildcats have an excellent defense, but Brendan Sorsby is the best QB they’ve faced all season.
Current line: Cincy -6.5 | SP+ projection: Cincy by 2.1 | FPI projection: Cincy by 4.6
Arkansas at LSU (12:45 p.m., SECN). Arkansas is a projected underdog in its final three games, so there’s a chance that a team with a top-10 offense (seventh in offensive SP+) finishes 2-10. I wouldn’t have thought that possible, but Arkansas is a place of wonders. Of course, LSU’s offense is in enough disarray that it might not even be able to punish the Hogs’ horrid defense. The stakes aren’t high, but morbid curiosity puts this one high on my list.
Current line: LSU -5.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 4.6 | FPI projection: LSU by 5.2
Saturday afternoon
UCF at No. 7 Texas Tech (3:30 p.m., Fox). UCF still has a shot at bowl eligibility and is athletic enough to land some shots if Tech is weary after last week’s big “College GameDay” party. But here’s a foreboding combination: The Knights rank 81st in points per drive and haven’t faced a top-40 defense (per SP+) yet. Tech’s defense ranks fifth in SP+.
Current line: Tech -23.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 23.9 | FPI projection: Tech by 18.2
Memphis at East Carolina (4 p.m., ESPNU). If ECU wins this home toss-up, the Pirates shift into prime contention in the American. SP+ still likes Memphis, but what do the Tigers have left in the tank after last week’s heartbreaking loss to Tulane? ECU’s hostile defense takes risks, creates havoc and leaves itself vulnerable to counterpunches. My favorite kind of defense.
Current line: ECU -2.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 0.9 | FPI projection: ECU by 0.3
North Carolina at Wake Forest (4:30 p.m., The CW). Two of the hottest defenses in the country have made this one more interesting than you (or I) probably expected. Wake has allowed 14 or fewer points in three of its past four games, while UNC has climbed back to 4-5 and still has bowl hopes because of a defense that has allowed 15.8 points per game over the past month. Take the under.
Current line: Wake -6.5 | SP+ projection: Wake by 9.3 | FPI projection: Wake by 4.9
Penn State at Michigan State (3:30 p.m., CBS). Since the two-game collapse that cost James Franklin his job, Penn State has been solid, hanging with Ohio State for a half and dropping heartbreakers to Iowa and Indiana. The 3-6 Nittany Lions could still make a bowl push, but MSU’s defense is improving, and the offense could spring some surprises with dueling quarterbacks Aidan Chiles and Alessio Milivojevic.
Current line: PSU -7.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 14.6 | FPI projection: PSU by 9.1
New Mexico State at No. 23 Tennessee (4:15 p.m., SECN). After a week off to digest its likely elimination from the CFP hunt, Tennessee now rallies for a homestretch that includes a trip to Florida and a potential chance to ruin Vanderbilt’s CFP hopes over Rivalry Week. But first, a visit from an NMSU team that plays as physically as possible but doesn’t have the offensive weapons to make this a game.
Current line: UT -40.5 | SP+ projection: UT by 32.8 | FPI projection: UT by 38.8
Saturday evening
Florida at No. 6 Ole Miss (7 p.m., ESPN). A loss at Florida derailed Ole Miss’ playoff hopes last year and prevented one of the best Rebel teams from a shot at the national title. I bet Lane Kiffin remembers that.
Current line: Ole Miss -14.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 17.3 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 10.0
UCLA at No. 1 Ohio State (7:30 p.m., NBC). Ohio State hasn’t played in a game decided by fewer than 18 points since Week 1 against Texas. The unbeaten Buckeyes have cruised along in about third gear for a while, but this week might be a good time to get a merely solid run game going — UCLA ranks 136th nationally in rushing success rate allowed and 104th in yards allowed per carry.
Current line: OSU -32.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 35.4 | FPI projection: OSU by 33.9
Mississippi State at Missouri (7:45 p.m., SECN). With Mizzou’s Beau Pribula out against Texas A&M (he’s listed as doubtful this week), third-stringer Matt Zollers went just 7-for-22. Can MSU stack the box against a good run game and force Zollers to make big throws? With QB Blake Shapen coming off an injury as well, can the Bulldogs punish a good defense that fell apart late against the Aggies?
Current line: Mizzou -7.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 11.4 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 7.1
Purdue at Washington (7 p.m., FS1). Purdue has improved this season, from 121st to 84th in SP+, but the Boilermakers have just a 2-8 record (0-3 in one-score finishes) to show for it. Can they throw a scare in a young Washington team that laid an egg in Madison last week? Probably not. Against defenses outside of the SP+ top 50, the Huskies average 49.4 points per game and 8.0 yards per play.
Current line: UW -16.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 20.7 | FPI projection: UW by 15.3
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State (8 p.m., ESPNU). We have three main contenders in the Conference USA race; these are two of them. JSU, the defending champ, has won four in a row behind an excellent run game, but KSU has won seven in a row. Jerry Mack’s Owls combine big pass plays with a defense that creates negative plays and ranks 32nd in points allowed per drive.
Current line: KSU -3.5 | SP+ projection: KSU by 2.3 | FPI projection: KSU by 0.3
Late Saturday
TCU at No. 12 BYU (10:15 p.m., ESPN). TCU’s offense has disappointed in the past two weeks, and any hopes of a Big 12 title went out the window with last week’s 20-17 loss to Iowa State. The Horned Frogs have the defense to screw up BYU’s CFP hopes, but it will require quarterback Josh Hoover‘s best game in weeks, and against a top-20 Cougars defense.
Current line: BYU -4.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 7.7 | FPI projection: BYU by 6.7
Boise State at San Diego State (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). SDSU’s playoff hopes are kaput after last week’s blowout loss to Hawai’i, but the Aztecs are still Mountain West co-favorites with Boise State, and the winner of this one might have home-field advantage in the conference title game. BSU quarterback Maddux Madsen will miss the game because of a lower-leg injury, but he could be back by the postseason.
Current line: SDSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 1.6 | FPI projection: BSU by 3.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
FCS: No. 13 Illinois State at No. 15 South Dakota State (3 p.m., ESPN+). Three weeks ago, South Dakota State was 7-0 and headlining a 1-versus-2 matchup with North Dakota State. Now, the Jackrabbits are 7-3, having fallen apart after an injury to starting quarterback Chase Mason. His status for Saturday is uncertain, but one way or the other, the Jacks need a win, especially with another ranked opponent (North Dakota) on the docket for next week. They were hoping for a top seed, and now they’re just hoping for a playoff berth. ISU, meanwhile, has won three in a row to get to 7-3 and the brink of a playoff bid, as well. This isn’t a pure win-and-you’re-in game, but it’s close.
SP+ projection: SDSU by 6.7
Division II (CIAA championship): No. 9 Virginia Union vs. No. 16 Johnson C. Smith (3 p.m., HBCU Go). The CIAA championship game is particularly interesting this year. Virginia Union has won the past two conference titles and reached the D-II quarterfinals in 2024; the Panthers are riding an eight-game winning streak (average score: 43-14). JCSU, however, hasn’t won the CIAA crown since 1969. The Golden Bulls have won six in a row since a 28-10 loss at VUU, and they’re one win from their first D-II playoff berth. Can they shine in Durham with history on the line?
SP+ projection: VUU by 7.3
FCS: No. 10 UC Davis at No. 3 Montana State (10:30 p.m., ESPN2). Montana and Montana State are unbeaten in Big Sky play, and we’re only a week from the Brawl of the Wild, one of the sport’s most picturesque rivalries. But MSU’s conference title hopes would take a hit with a loss to a UC Davis team that probably doesn’t defend enough but can keep up in a track meet with redshirt freshman quarterback Caden Pinnick and backs Jordan Fisher and Carter Vargas.
SP+ projection: MSU by 12.1
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Andrea Adelson
Florida State freshman linebacker Ethan Pritchard has been released from in-patient rehab and is expected to attend the Seminoles’ final home game of the season against Virginia Tech on Saturday.
Pritchard returned to Tallahassee on Friday and visited with the team.
He plans to continue his rehab back home in Central Florida, and told WESH-TV in an interview his plan is to play football again.
Pritchard was shot in the back of the head Aug. 31 in what the authorities have described as a case of mistaken identity. He was dropping his aunt and a child off following a family party in Havana, Fla., about 16 miles from Tallahassee, near the Georgia state line.
Four people were arrested last month in connection with the shooting.
Pritchard told WESH, “I remember everything. I turned the corner and shots rang off. I put the car in reverse and just backed up and after that, I don’t remember what else happened.”
Pritchard spent nearly six weeks in the hospital in Tallahassee before moving to a rehab center in Jacksonville. In the interview with WESH, Pritchard said he could not move his right side when he arrived at the rehab facility.
But early one morning, he woke up his dad, Earl, because he could finally move his arm.
“After that, it just got better and better,” Ethan Pritchard said.
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