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No matter how we go about setting our preseason expectations for the 2025 college football season — polls, computer projections, pure gut instincts — we’re going to end up mostly right. We’re going to assume that the teams that were the best last season will be the best this season, and that’s going to bear out in most instances.

In other cases, however, we’re going to be hilariously incorrect. Take last season’s preseason top 10: Six of those teams ended up in the year-end top six and scored College Football Playoff bids, and two others were among the top three teams to miss the CFP. Very accurate! But then, preseason No. 9 Michigan and No. 10 Florida State fell from a combined 28-1 the year before to 10-15. Both finished unranked. They basically switched bodies, “Freaky Friday” style, with Arizona State and Indiana, who went from a combined 6-18 in 2023 to 24-5 with top-10 finishes and playoff bids.

Every season is mostly predictable except for a handful of absolute shocks. And the goal of this annual piece is to identify which of last season’s good surprise teams are most likely to sustain their gains and which of the bad surprise programs are most likely to bounce back. Using SP+ ratings and luck factors as our guide, we can usually pinpoint the likeliest teams for each category.

In last year’s edition of this column, the seven “most likely to sustain breakthroughs” teams I named went from a combined 49-41 with an average SP+ ranking of 53.9 to 60-32 and 40.6, respectively. Colorado, Colorado State and Miami won an additional 11 more games between them, while Colorado, Miami, Rutgers and Virginia Tech each improved by at least 14 more spots in SP+. Meanwhile, the six teams I named for the “most likely to rebound from a regression season” list went from a combined 27-47 with an 81.5 average ranking to 42-34 and 54.7. Five improved their win totals, and all six improved their SP+ rankings. Success!

The preseason poll rankings and final SP+ projections for 2025 are coming in August. But while we wait, let’s once again predict some of this coming season’s happier stories. Which of 2024’s unexpected breakthroughs might find even further heights? Which of last year’s disappointments are likeliest to bounce back?

Teams most likely to sustain 2024 gains

When our team surges to unexpected success in a given season, we like to think of this as the new reality. We’re good now! That’s never going to change again! Unfortunately, reality rarely agrees with that. Over the past 20 years, we’ve seen an average of 1.9 teams improving by at least 20 ratings points in SP+ and an average of 18.0 improving by at least 10 points. On average, these teams regress the next season 61% of the time, 32% by at least a touchdown.

These numbers haven’t necessarily changed in the 2020s, aka the transfer portal era. The rules of roster management have been completely altered, but since 2021 we’ve still seen 18.3 teams improving by 10-plus points in a given season. Interestingly, only 54% regressed the next year, 25% by a touchdown or more. We don’t yet know whether this is a small-sample effect or a genuine shift in the data, so I’ll still lean on the historic averages, but it’s something to watch.

In 2024, 16 teams improved by at least 10 points. Based on the averages above, we can expect about 40% of them — six or seven — to improve further in 2025. Only two were projected to do so in my most recent SP+ rankings, which means I’ll have to stray from the numbers to pull the list together. But after writing lengthy conference previews about each team, here are the teams I believe are the likeliest candidates to build on 2024’s surprise success:

2023: 3-9 record, 107th in SP+ (-11.3 adjusted points per game, or 11.3 worse than the average college football team)

2024: 11-3, 35th (+9.4)

2025 projection (as of May): 8.4 average wins, 22nd (+12.2)

From my Big 12 preview: “It’s hard to know what to do with a late-season surge. ASU was solid for about two-thirds of the season and outstanding for one-third, and while that wasn’t enough to earn the trust of SP+ — and a 6-2 record in one-score finishes will be tough to duplicate — enough of last year’s key contributors return to think that this could be a top-15-level team again.”

Because of all those close wins, it might be difficult for Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils to match last year’s 11-win total, especially without Cam Skattebo around to grind out tough-as-hell yards at times. But Skattebo is just about the only major departure. Quarterback Sam Leavitt should have an improved receiving corps, where Jordyn Tyson is joined by late-2024 big-play producer Malik McClain, veteran transfer Jalen Moss (Fresno State) and high-upside youngsters such as Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama). Meanwhile, the offensive line and a defense that also surged down the stretch are both loaded with seniors.

This is a team built for another run and further improvement on paper, even if the god of close games turns against it at some point.


2023: 3-9 record, 97th in SP+ (-8.3 adjusted PPG)

2024: 8-5, 38th (+8.4)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.7 average wins, 35th (+7.5)

Again from the Big 12 preview: “Jake Spavital’s offense was magnificent. Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs, while backs Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass rushed for 1,699 rushing yards and 18 TDs. Baylor gained at least 20 yards on 8.7% of its snaps (10th in FBS) while gaining zero or fewer on just 27.7% (19th). That combination will score you lots of points. … The Bears scored 31 or more points nine times last year, and it would be a surprise if they did so fewer times in 2025. Big 12 contention, then, is up to the defense.”

Baylor won the last six games of the regular season, scoring an average of 12.1 points more than projected, and almost all of the reasons for the offensive surge return. It’s indeed up to Matt Powledge’s defense — which also improved in 2024, but only to 63rd in defensive SP+ — to determine the Bears’ fate. Experience won’t be an issue. Dave Aranda added 13 transfers to go with the 10 returnees who saw 200-plus snaps last year. And there are known playmakers such as tackle Jackie Marshall, incoming linebacker Travion Barnes (FIU) and nickelback Carl Williams IV, too. After rebounding into the SP+ top 40 last season, it sure looks like the Bears are built to crack the top 30 this time around.


2023: 3-9 record, 119th in SP+ (-15.2 adjusted PPG)

2024: 9-4, 87th (-4.0)

2025 projection (as of May): 7.7 average wins, 91st (-7.1)

From my MAC preview: “[Pete Lembo] engineered immediate improvement in his return to MAC life, and now leading rusher Al-Jay Henderson, leading receiver Victor Snow, three starting O-linemen and 12 of 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps all return. … From a pure height-and-weight standpoint, the depth chart should look like something from a power conference.”

Buffalo was extremely all-or-nothing last season, overachieving against SP+ projections by at least 11 points six times and underachieving by that much three times. But that’s a net gain! Even without any semblance of offensive efficiency, the Bulls fielded their best team in four years. This time around, they should have enough offensive experience to avoid quite as many three-and-outs, and maybe no Group of 5 defense returns a proven trio of disruptors in end Kobe Stewart, outside linebacker Dion Crawford and inside linebacker Red Murdock. SP+ projects UB as the third-best team in the MAC, but after a season-opening trip to Minnesota — not a gimme for the Golden Gophers — the Bulls are at least slight projected favorites in every game.

I wish I felt better about their quarterback situation, where either journeyman Ta’Quan Roberson or little-used backup Gunnar Gray is likely to start. But aside from maybe Toledo, no other MAC team brings this much upside to the table in 2025.


2023: 5-7 record, 75th in SP+ (-2.5 adjusted PPG)

2024: 10-3, 31st (+9.6)

2025 projection (as of May): 8.7 average wins, 19th (+14.3)

From my Big Ten preview: “The Illini won 10 games for the first time in 23 years, and [Bret] Bielema rang in 2025 by embarrassing Shane Beamer on national television. Illinois finished 16th in the AP poll, and now it leads the conference in returning production. … If experience produces sturdy play early in the season, look out. By the end of September, the Illini will have played relative toss-ups at Duke and Indiana and at home against USC. Win all three, and they’re going to be in the playoff discussion for quite a while. But it’s hard to get the breaks you need in close games for two straight years.”

Like Arizona State, Illinois could be another “improve on paper, regress in the win column” team depending on how long the good fortune in close games continues. But of the top four projected teams in the Big Ten, the Illini play only one and should win quite a few games by well more than one score. New go-to running back Aidan Laughery could enjoy a huge season, and if quarterback Luke Altmyer gets a good year from at least one transfer receiver — the most likely of the bunch: Hudson Clement (West Virginia) — this offense should be Illinois’ first top-50 attack in 15 years (!). I’m concerned about the remodeled defensive line, but coordinator Aaron Henry gets the benefit of the doubt. This should be a solid team.


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Carson Beck: Joining Miami feels like ‘a full-circle moment’

Carson Beck joins “SportsCenter” to discuss growing up a Florida Gators fan and playing college football for some of their biggest rivals.

2023: 7-6 record, 28th in SP+ (+9.6 adjusted PPG)

2024: 10-3, 10th (+21.6)

2025 projection (as of May): 9.2 average wins, 12th (+18.8)

From my ACC preview: “After a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season. … I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, [Georgia transfer Carson] Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.”

This one’s definitely more about sustaining gains than prepping for another surge. You can only rise so much higher than 10th. But I do think Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes have a chance of matching last year’s general quality, albeit in a more balanced way: The offense will almost certainly regress a bit while the defense improves. If the latter matches or outpaces the former, voila, sustained gains!

With good health and better help up front, defensive line star Rueben Bain Jr. could have a huge year, and I really like the additions in the secondary, especially ultra-aggressive safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State). The Miami defense should have never been as poor as it was late last fall, but it will have a chance to make amends in 2025.


2023: 3-9 record, 91st in SP+ (-7.3 adjusted PPG)

2024: 7-6, 51st (+4.9)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.1 average wins, 47th (+3.4)

From the ACC preview: “As delightful as they looked during their unbeaten start, they looked equally lost during an 0-6 finish. They more than doubled their win total in the most disappointing possible way. … [Desmond Reid] aside, most of last year’s most exciting players were freshmen and sophomores, and one can see how experience might sand down rough edges and make Pitt an ACC dark horse. But that late-season collapse was pretty ugly. It’s up to the Panthers to prove whether the first or second half of the season showed us the way forward.”

It’s hard to trust any Pitt prediction. The Panthers improved by five wins in 2021, regressed by six in 2023, then improved by four in 2024. In that tiny span, they have ranked as high as sixth in offensive SP+ and as low as 108th. They’re capable of anything. But last year’s offense jumped to 54th and would have risen even further if quarterback Eli Holstein had stayed healthy. With Holstein, Reid, a more experienced offensive line and big-time defensive disruptors such as linebacker Kyle Louis and end Jimmy Scott, this is at least a top-40 team. We’ll see about the “ACC dark horse” line above, but further improvement feels likely.

Teams most likely to rebound from a 2024 stumble

In a universe in which you’re measured by wins and losses, everything is zero-sum: If someone’s rising, someone’s falling. And the trend for collapses is almost identical to the trend for sudden surges. Over the past 20 years, an average of 1.8 teams have collapsed by at least 20 adjusted points per game in SP+, and an average of 16.9 have fallen by at least 10 points. Of those teams that stumble, 64% of them improve the next season and 36% by at least a touchdown. The trends of the 2020s have been relatively similar: Only about 14.5 teams have regressed by 10-plus points over the past four seasons — again, we’ll see if that’s a trend — and 68% have rebounded the next year.

Last year, two teams regressed by 20-plus points: the aforementioned Florida State Seminoles and Michigan Wolverines. Twelve others fell by at least 10 points. Averages suggest about 36% of these 14 teams — around five — will improve by a touchdown or more in 2025. Here are the five I think are most likely:

2023: 9-4 record, 45th in SP+ (+5.9 adjusted PPG)

2024: 5-7, 111th (-11.7)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.2 average wins, 94th (-7.3)

From my Mountain West preview: “A lost season became an encouraging one late: Over their last five games, the Falcons overachieved against projections by an average of 17.7 points per game, and after a 20-3 loss to Army dropped them to 1-7, they won their last four games, most impressively destroying Oregon State, 28-0. The full-season averages still weren’t great, but as with Michigan, Air Force basically saw its win total cut in half from the previous season but somehow still ended up in a good mood.”

Even with Air Force’s recent success — at least nine wins in four consecutive full seasons — it was easy to predict a collapse in 2024, as the Falcons had one of the lowest returning production averages in recent memory. It’s almost as easy to predict a solid rebound this year, mainly because it already started late last season. If junior Josh Johnson is half-decent at quarterback, the offense should get back on track with help from fullback Dylan Carson, big-play slot back Cade Harris and error-free center Costen Cooley. The defense has quite a bit to replace in the secondary, but veteran defensive tackle Payton Zdroik should ensure disruption up front. This team should at least climb back to 7-5 or 8-4.


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FSU QB Castellanos stands by Alabama jab

Florida State quarterback Tommy Castellanos speaks to reporters about what he meant by his jab at Alabama during the summer.

2023: 13-1 record, ninth in SP+ (+19.4 adjusted PPG)

2024: 2-10, 83rd (-3.2)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.8 average wins, 36th (+7.2)

Again from the ACC preview: “This was a collapse on the scale of Bobby Petrino’s last season at Louisville, Texas’ first season after 2009 BCS Championship disappointment and Notre Dame’s 2007 swoon under Charlie Weis. And it’s noteworthy that none of the coaches in charge during those collapses could right the ship. But [Mike] Norvell will try. … There are enough proven entities to assume the defense will bounce back. In fact, the collapse was so significant last season that we should assume some progression toward the mean everywhere. But how much of a rebound can you pull off after such a collapse?”

This is some pretty low-hanging fruit — if the Seminoles are average in 2025, that will qualify as solid improvement after last season’s disintegration. I’m not sure what to expect from a remodeled offense; new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has an awfully Malzahn-friendly QB in the speedy transfer Tommy Castellanos (Boston College) and new potential big-play receivers in Duce Robinson (USC), Squirrel White (Tennessee) and Randy Pittman Jr. (UCF), but it might be hard to get a rebuilt offensive line up to speed. Regardless, the defensive front six has some new playmakers, and again, the bar for improvement is incredibly low. I’m not sure how many games Norvell needs to win to save his job, but the Noles will almost certainly not go 2-10 again.


2023: 15-0 record, first in SP+ (+31.3 adjusted PPG)

2024: 8-5, 26th (+10.6)

2025 projection (as of May): 9.8 average wins, 10th (+21.5)

From the Big Ten preview: “The Wolverines went unbeaten when scoring at least 24 points (national scoring average: 28.0), but they reached that mark in only six of 13 games thanks primarily to a black hole at the QB position. They ranked 91st in Total QBR and 131st — last nationally among non-service academies — in passing yards per game (129.1). … Either five-star freshman Bryce Underwood or veteran transfer Mikey Keene (Fresno State) will begin the season at QB for Moore’s second Michigan team, and it’s probably fair to assume that Underwood will finish it there. His first spring was up-and-down, but going from the aforementioned black hole to the best high school prospect in the country is quite the leap.”

Seeing Michigan projected 10th overall was a bit concerning, as the offense still has loads of questions. But I’d be surprised if the Wolverines didn’t have a top-10 defense, and the schedule features only one projected top-15 team, per SP+. And they won eight games and beat Ohio State and Alabama while getting almost nothing from the QB. Even if Underwood isn’t ready to lead a CFP team yet, a return to 9-3 or so and occasional actual passing yardage don’t seem like too much to ask.


2023: 3-9 record, 116th in SP+ (-14.4 adjusted PPG)

2024: 1-11, 133rd (-25.6)

2025 projection (as of May): 3.4 average wins, 128th (-17.7)

From my Sun Belt preview: “What happens when you graft one-quarter of last year’s Sun Belt championship roster onto the worst roster in the conference? We’re going to find out! After signing more than 50 transfers in addition to the normal freshman/JUCO signing class, [Charles Huff] has almost completely flipped the roster in six months. … SP+ is setting the bar low because things like “recent history” still tend to matter more often than not. But as with Marshall, this is a total, unprojectable roster reset.”

The story of Southern Miss in 2025 could only take place in 2025 and no time before. Southern Miss was wretched last season, but almost no one’s left from that team. Meanwhile, quarterback Braylon Braxton, five receivers, four defensive linemen and eight defensive backs — including star corner Josh Moten — and quite a few others followed Charles Huff from Marshall to Hattiesburg.

I have no idea how to set accurate expectations, but as with Florida State, this is low-hanging fruit. It will be an improvement if the Golden Eagles go 3-9 and rank in the 120s. And with zero opponents projected higher than 71st in SP+, topping the 4.5 wins set at ESPN BET doesn’t seem outlandish.


2023: 14-1 record, 13th in SP+ (+16.4 adjusted PPG)

2024: 6-7, 58th (+3.1)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.3 average wins, 39th (+6.4)

Again from the Big Ten preview: “If [Demond Williams Jr.] is genuinely good — and doesn’t take a million sacks — then there’s a legitimate chance for a second-year leap for the UW offense. He’ll have a relatively experienced line in front of him and a skill corps that includes 1,000-yard back Jonah Coleman (and a physical backup in sophomore Adam Mohammed), receivers Denzel Boston and Penn State transfer Omari Evans, and another sophomore in big-play tight end Decker DeGraaf. … Fisch generated lots of traction in his second season at Arizona, and it’s not hard to envision something similar happening at UW. But he’ll need to hit on a lot of transfers, and he’ll need his faith in a guy with 153 dropbacks wholly rewarded.”

In the past four seasons, Washington has bounced from 4-8 to 11-2 to 14-1 to 6-7. That’s enough to give you motion sickness, but the combination of Williams, Coleman, Boston and a semi-experienced offensive line should do good things. Plus, the defense has enough exciting new players — tackle Ta’ita’i Uiagalelei (Arizona), linebacker Xe’ree Alexander (UCF), corner Tacario Davis (Arizona), safeties CJ Christian (Florida International) and Alex McLaughlin (NAU) — that new coordinator Ryan Walters might get away with the aggressive man defense he usually prefers. Playing four projected top-20 teams could make 8-4 or so the ceiling this year, but improvement still seems likely.

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Wetzel: Mike Gundy dug in his heels and got left behind

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Wetzel: Mike Gundy dug in his heels and got left behind

Back in November of 2015, when his Clemson program was still barreling toward a national title (it would win two of them), Dabo Swinney spoke about the life cycle of a business.

“You’ve got the birth. You’ve got the growth. You’ve got plateau. You’ve got decline. And you’ve got death,” Swinney said. “Those great businesses out there, those great programs, they don’t plateau.

“So how do you do that?” he continued. “You have to constantly reinvent, reinvest, reset, learn, grow. You change. You have to do that. You don’t just change to change, but you have to always challenge yourself each and every year and make sure, ‘OK, this may be how we’ve done it, but is it still the right way?'”

The business of college football in 2025 is different from 2015. Direct revenue-sharing, NIL and the transfer portal have not just altered the way rosters are assembled, but even how individuals and teams need to be coached.

It’s like most businesses and industries. Nothing is static. You either enthusiastically welcome that, or, in Swinney’s words, “You’ve got death.”

Mike Gundy is very much alive; he just is no longer employed at Oklahoma State, where over 21 seasons he became the program’s all-time winningest coach. He and Swinney have much in common.

Both are in their mid-to-late 50s (Swinney 55, Gundy 58). Both built up underperforming programs through their own force of will — a combination of competitive drive, innovative schemes and personal charisma. During the 2010s, few were better.

They have also been among the most vocal critics, and least enthusiastic embracers, of the new era of the sport. It shows.

Dabo’s Tigers, hyped as title contenders in the preseason, are 1-3 with losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse. Gundy, meanwhile, was fired after a 1-2 start that included a humbling loss to Tulsa.

In his final news conference before being dismissed, Gundy bemoaned pretty much everything new.

“It’s like being in an argument with your wife,” Gundy said. “And you know you’re right. It makes zero difference. You’re wrong. You might as well just get over it, give in, and things are going to be much smoother.”

It seems that defeatist attitude and begrudging acceptance of new dynamics bled into Gundy’s program.

Anyone can add a player through the portal. But if you don’t accept and understand the portal, if you aren’t spending time passionately trying to make it work best for you, are you getting the right player? You can’t go in with feet dragging.

Swinney is a traditionalist; often for admirable reasons. He wants to be loyal to players he recruited, preferring to believe in and develop them rather than just transfer in a better talent.

Times change, though. You can lament it. You can pine for the old days. Or you can adapt so you don’t wind up like a typewriter repair shop.

Establishment coaches often rail against transfer culture, painting players who jump around as disloyal or running from a challenge. That might be the case for some, but for many others, the portal is a chance to prove their worth by working up the ladder from smaller to bigger programs.

Big programs recruit based on sophomore and junior years of high school. A lot of guys fall through those cracks. Maybe they hailed from small towns or hadn’t hit growth spurts, or their parents couldn’t afford throwing coaches and nutritionists. Maybe they didn’t get invited to the “Elite 11.”

Yet, once in college, they worked and worked and improved and improved, generally at smaller programs without the fanciest of locker rooms or some unearned sense of greatness based on “tradition.”

Others might have failed at their first school, or got spurned by a previous coach. Now, on their last chance, they are fighting the way they always should have.

As with old-school recruiting, coaches who love the portal are probably going to get the best of those players over coaches who just tolerate the portal. Diamonds are everywhere.

Syracuse and Georgia Tech didn’t have more “talent” — and certainly not higher-ranked recruits — when they beat Clemson. Same with Tulsa and OSU. They didn’t have better facilities or higher-paid assistants.

But they might have had what Dabo and Gundy used to exude in excess — an intense drive to win. High school recruiting rankings don’t matter to the scoreboard.

Gundy couldn’t make it work in the new era. Can the extremely talented Swinney? A lot of coaches can’t. It’s not an age thing, though — Indiana’s Curt Cignetti is 64 and thriving. It’s an attitude thing. It’s about fervently attacking new possibilities.

Reinvent, reinvest, reset, learn, grow.

It can’t be like holding your tongue in a fight with your spouse.

Mike Gundy already tried that approach.

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From The Big Dumper to … magic? Why Mariners might have the mojo to finally win it all

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From The Big Dumper to ... magic? Why Mariners might have the mojo to finally win it all

SEATTLE — It had been 24 years and five days since this city experienced its last division title, a wait that turned its baseball fans into one of this country’s most tortured. Babies were born, grew up, went to college, got a job, and their beloved Seattle Mariners still had not finished atop the American League West. Maybe this is how it was supposed to happen. With a nucleus that finally righted itself — after stumbling time and again — in the most emphatic way possible. With a dominant, soul-cleansing, late-season series sweep of the franchise’s greatest nemesis. With Cal Raleigh punctuating a division title with his 60th home run Wednesday night.

With, of all things, some help from the supernatural.

Three weeks ago, when the team was struggling and hope seemed lost, Steven Blackburn, a 26-year-old lifelong Mariners fan, found a witch. An Etsy witch, to be exact, which is precisely what you might think it is: a self-proclaimed sorcerer providing services through the popular e-commerce website.

Blackburn and one of his best friends had often joked about using an Etsy witch to fix some of their biggest problems and first thought about contracting one to help the Mariners some time around June. The Mariners weren’t playing quite bad enough then — but by Sept. 5, after a stretch of 15 losses in 21 games, they were. Blackburn searched for witches willing to cast generic spells, found a user going by the name of SpellByLuna and asked for an incantation that would turn around the Mariners’ once-promising season.

Said Blackburn: “Best $16 I’ve ever spent.”

The next morning at 5 a.m., Blackburn, an RV mechanic who lives about 30 miles north of T-Mobile Park, received a message that the spell had been cast. Later that night, All-Star center fielder Julio Rodríguez took over a game the Mariners absolutely needed, homering twice and making a leaping catch in a 10-2 victory. The next day, the Mariners blew out the Atlanta Braves 18-2. They’ve lost only once since, firing off 17 wins in 18 games since “Luna” unveiled the conjuration. Fans now show up at the ballpark in witches’ hats and, at times, full-on witch costumes. The organization has wrapped its arms around the concept, referencing the Etsy witch on social media and inviting Blackburn to the ballpark on Fan Appreciation Night earlier this month.

“It’s been super crazy,” he said. “I did this Etsy thing as a joke. I didn’t expect it to be this big.”

Blackburn wasn’t old enough to enjoy the 116-win 2001 team that claimed the previous division title and advanced into the AL Championship Series. His most vivid memories were of Mariners teams of the 2010s that featured the likes of Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Félix Hernández, none of which advanced into October, and of younger groups that came up painfully short in 2021, 2023 and 2024.

Blackburn fully acknowledges the absurdity of it all. But when certain things happen — Mitch Garver hitting his first triple in six years, journeyman infielder Leo Rivas delivering a walk-off home run, Victor Robles diving from out of nowhere to make a game-saving catch — he can’t help but believe there might be something to it. The 2025 Mariners look like the franchise’s deepest, most talented collection in a generation, headlined by a transformative individual season. They have the tortured fan base, the conquest of a bitter rival, and even a little magic around them.

“It just feels like we’re almost destined,” Blackburn said. “It’s been 48 years that this team has been around. This feels like it’s about time.”


IT WAS THE first day of June when Mariners general manager Justin Hollander first reached out to Amiel Sawdaye, assistant GM of the Arizona Diamondbacks, to inquire about Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor. The trade deadline was still more than eight weeks away and the D-backs still maintained reasonable hope that they might contend. But Hollander vowed to stay in touch.

Under Jerry Dipoto, in his 10th year overseeing baseball operations, the Mariners had built a reputation as aggressive dealers. Trading promising prospects for veteran players on the verge of free agency, though, was the type of move they steered away from. But Suárez, a third baseman on a 50-homer pace, and Naylor, a first baseman who can hit for power, put the ball in play and even steal bases, addressed the team’s two biggest holes at a time that demanded urgency.

Raleigh was in the midst of a historic season. Rodríguez and the majority of the team’s best pitchers — starters Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller, relievers Andres Muñoz and Matt Brash — were in their mid to late 20s, representing what should be the apex of their careers. And the failure of these past two years, both of which saw the Mariners finish a game shy of the playoffs, had revealed something about the follies of pragmatism.

“You can sometimes take for granted how good you think your team is and how likely or not likely you are to make the postseason,” Hollander said. “We felt like this year’s team had the potential to be the best of any of the other teams.”

So Hollander continually scribbled reminders to call Sawdaye on the notepad he keeps beside a computer on his office desk. He checked in every week or so, just to make sure nothing had changed. The Mariners had interest in acquiring both players in a package deal, but when the call finally came near the end of July, the D-backs revealed their plans to separate them. Naylor arrived on July 24 and brought a type of edge the team needed. Suárez, a beloved figure from a previous stint in Seattle in 2022-23, followed on the night of July 30 and brought the type of vibe that soon became crucial.

Later, sources told ESPN, the Mariners were on the verge of acquiring star closer Jhoan Duran from the Minnesota Twins. But when the Philadelphia Phillies upped their offer, the Mariners relented.

They still came away with two corner infielders who lengthened their lineup and made them a more dynamic unit than they’ve been in recent years, one not solely reliant on Raleigh and Rodríguez. Since then, the rotation has gotten healthy — minus Woo, whose pectoral injury is not expected to impact his postseason availability — and rounded into the type of form it displayed amid a record-setting 2024 season, posting a 2.50 ERA over these past 18 games. The bullpen — not only Muñoz and Brash, but Gabe Speier, Eduard Bazardo, Carlos Vargas and Caleb Ferguson, the veteran lefty acquired after a deal for Duran fell through — continues to look devastating.

Said Rodríguez: “We can do it all.”

“We’ve got athleticism, we’ve got team speed, we’ve got power, we’ve got starting pitching, a back end of the bullpen,” Dipoto said. “It’s very rare in our lives you get all those things hitting at the same time. And here in the last few weeks, they are. And they showed — they’re on a mission. And I don’t think that mission stops with making it to the postseason.”


THE LAST TIME the Mariners hosted a playoff game, it was Oct. 15, 2022, and to their fans, it became the most excruciating day possible. Seventeen innings went by without a run being scored. A Washington Huskies college football game started and ended during that time. Then Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña led off the top of the 18th inning with a home run to center field. After 6 hours, 22 minutes, the Mariners’ 2022 season — the one that ended the longest active playoff drought in North American professional sports — was over.

Heading into 2025, the Mariners had existed for 47 years and made the playoffs only five times. The best group was assembled in 2001, two years after the franchise’s most iconic player, Ken Griffey Jr., left to join the Cincinnati Reds. The Mariners tied the Chicago Cubs for the most wins in modern baseball history that year, then got trounced by the New York Yankees in the ALCS. Twenty-one years went by without another Mariners team in the playoffs; 24 went by without a division championship.

That 2001 season didn’t just mark the last time the Mariners had won the AL West; it marked the last time the people of Seattle had seen its team score a run at home in the playoffs, let alone win a game.

“We all know the history,” Rodríguez said. “We all know the hunger that this fan base has. That’s one thing that motivates us.”

The Mariners emerged from this year’s trade deadline with a 9-1 homestand, validating every belief that they had morphed into a powerhouse. They were 67-53 by Aug. 12, tied with the Houston Astros atop the AL West. Then the Mariners started to slide again. They went 2-7 on a trip through Baltimore, New York and Philadelphia. They bounced back by winning four of six at home but followed by dropping two of three in Cleveland.

Then they went to Tampa and lost back-to-back games to the Rays, after which Dipoto and manager Dan Wilson held a team meeting largely to emphasize that this was a talented, accomplished group that didn’t require any one individual to carry it. Suárez spoke about the importance of staying within themselves, J.P. Crawford emphasized the need for resiliency.

It didn’t work; the Mariners gave up eight runs in the first two innings of the finale, lost again, flew to Atlanta and were dominated by Braves ace Chris Sale on a Friday night, falling 3½ games out in the AL West.

Then, suddenly, everything changed.

The Mariners at one point won 10 in a row for the first time in more than three years. In one four-game series against the Los Angeles Angels, their pitchers set a major league record by accumulating 62 strikeouts. Over a 16-1 stretch, leading up to when they clinched the division, they outscored opponents by a combined 68 runs.

Maybe it was sorcery. Maybe it was the mustaches so many of the players and coaches started rocking when things went poorly, no matter how absurd some of them looked. Maybe it was the bag of crunchy Cheetos Dipoto began delivering to radio play-by-play voice Rick Rizzs on a daily basis, a callback to an old slump-busting ritual that reemerged on that Saturday in Atlanta because, as Dipoto said, “When he gets Cheetos, we score runs.”

Maybe it was a team that grew through struggle and finally learned how to overcome.

“We never give up,” Rodríguez said. “I feel like there’s a lot of people that break under pressure, and I feel like us as a team, we stick together. We’ve had some tough stretches, but I feel like that made us stronger. We were able to break through that. And we stayed together through that.”


DURING BATTING PRACTICE at Daikin Park in Houston last Sunday, Crawford wore socks that read: “Do Epic S—.” Then he came to bat in the second inning and hit the grand slam that basically took the archrival Astros out of the game, catapulted the Mariners to an emphatic three-game sweep and put them in position to capture their long-awaited division title.

The Astros’ ballpark is the site of the Yordan Álvarez walk-off home run against Robbie Ray in Game 1 of the 2022 AL Division Series, a moment from which those Mariners never recovered. It’s the home of a team that had claimed seven division titles over the past eight years, continually pushing Seattle into the background. And it’s a reminder of a year like 2023, when the Mariners arrived in Arlington, Texas, on the second-to-last weekend of the regular season trailing the division by only a half-game, were swept, and later watched the playoffs from their couches.

This time, though, it felt different.

“You could just feel the energy around in the clubhouse,” Crawford, the Mariners’ longest-tenured player, recalled. “Like, ‘Oh s—, it’s go time.’ It was cool.”

The Mariners never trailed in that series. Woo, Kirby and Gilbert combined to give up one run in 17 innings, during which they struck out 18 and walked two. Eight Mariners hitters drove in at least a run. The Mariners went into Houston tied for the top spot in the AL West and came out of it leading by three games, while holding the tiebreaker, with six remaining. Before their home series this week against the last-place Colorado Rockies was over — an eventual sweep, putting their winning streak at seven games — the Mariners had clinched a playoff spot, sealed the division, and earned a first-round bye, guaranteeing home-field advantage in the ALDS.

Given the opponent, the time of year and the ramifications, that series against the Astros might have been the most important in franchise history.

“We knew that was what had to happen,” Raleigh said. “It’s no secret — the Astros have owned this division for a long time. And to go out there and do it at their place, it meant a lot. It’s not just a random three games somewhere. They’re a really good team, they’re really tough. To do it in that fashion was special to these guys.”

The Mariners have fallen just short of the playoffs by stumbling down the stretch in each of the past two years. In 2023, an incredible August was followed by a brutal September that prompted elimination on the second-to-last day of the regular season. In 2024, the late-season firing of longtime manager Scott Servais was not enough to save a season that saw the Mariners blow a 10-game lead in 31 days and find themselves once again chasing over the final month. They grew from it.

“I just think that over the years, besides when we got to the playoffs in ’22, there’s always been so much pressure on us to get to the playoffs,” Kirby said. “And I think all of us were just like, ‘Screw that. Take every game one game at a time, do what you gotta do to get ready today and help the team.’ I think the vibes were so good. Normally, we feel all this pressure, but we just went out there and did our thing.”

When the final out was recorded Wednesday night, and the AL West had been secured, Wilson stood on the top step of the dugout and attempted to take it all in for a moment. Before he was thrust into the role as manager near the end of last August, Wilson spent a dozen years as a stalwart catcher during the best run in franchise history.

The Mariners made the playoffs four times with Wilson behind the plate from 1994 to 2005. Experiencing the emotions of it again felt “weirdly familiar and weirdly unfamiliar,” he said. He’s in a completely different role now, but he remembered the feeling so vividly. Of an entire city coming alive. Of a baseball team mattering so much. Of the excitement over what lies ahead.

“It brings back a lot,” Wilson said. “And it just feels really good that T-Mobile was as loud as it was, and as positive as it was, and that these guys are the reason why.”


A NAVY BLUE felt board is plastered on one of the walls inside the home clubhouse at T-Mobile Park, displaying Polaroid pictures of grown men donning the award handed out after every win: a pair of gold-plated testicles hanging from a chain and inscribed with a trident, appropriately called the “Nuts of the Game.” Thirty-eight pictures hung on that board this week. Only five of them featured Raleigh, who has taken on the responsibility of handing it out.

“He never gives the nuts to himself,” Crawford said. “He’s always looking out for someone else. It’s never about him. In reality, it should be.”

Raleigh will head into the final weekend, a home series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, with a realistic chance of breaking the AL home-run record of 62 set by Aaron Judge in 2022, and just as big a chance of beating him out for this year’s MVP Award. That the switch-hitting Raleigh, famously known as “The Big Dumper” for his prominent posterior, has achieved these offensive numbers — a .954 OPS, 60 home runs and 125 RBIs — while starting 118 games at catcher is akin to “asking Josh Allen to play middle linebacker on top of being the quarterback of the Buffalo Bills,” Hollander said.

The Mariners have played a major league-leading 14 games that lasted at least 11 innings this season, which only means longer nights for their best player. Their staff is composed of pitchers who throw a lot of sinkers and splitters, pitches that are often thrown in the dirt, which also means more blocking. Raleigh has made 4,385 block attempts this season, more than all but five other players. He has squatted to receive 8,715 pitches, fourth-most in the majors, over 1,063 innings, third-most. He has also absorbed countless foul tips, made countless pitch calls and spent countless hours dedicated to the task of getting opposing hitters out, all while hitting like few others.

“As a catcher, you come off the field at the end of the night being both physically and mentally exhausted,” Wilson said. “To be able to do that night in and night out and produce like he has offensively — it’s never been done like this before. We can honestly say that.”

Raleigh has produced 12 more home runs than the previous record for a primary catcher, set by Salvador Perez in 2021. Not long after clearing Perez, he passed Mickey Mantle for the most home runs by a switch-hitter (54 in 1961) and Griffey for the most home runs in Mariners history (56 in 1997 and ’98). He did it while coming off a Platinum Glove season, during a year in which he has made his right-handed swing every bit as lethal as his left-handed one. But in Seattle, there’s an appeal to Raleigh that stretches beyond production.

“He feels like one of them, and the way he interacts is insanely humble,” Dipoto said. “And when you talk to him, it’s not an act. It’s who he is.”

Raleigh started the scoring on Wednesday night with a first-inning home run, his 59th. Seven innings later — on the first pitch of his last at-bat, with 42,883 fans once again serenading him with MVP chants — he finished it with his 60th, tying a major league record with his 11th multi-homer game this season.

“Sixty,” Raleigh said later that night. “I don’t know what to say. I didn’t know if I was gonna hit 60 in my life.”

Earlier this spring, ahead of putting pen to paper on a $105 million extension, Raleigh met with the Mariners’ principal decision-makers to express his desire to win with this group and hoped to learn that they shared his ambition. What followed was the best offensive season a catcher has ever produced, at the center of a baseball team that, depending on what happens over this next month, could be the greatest this city has ever experienced.

“To do it in this fashion has been crazy and exciting and fun and everything that I hoped and dreamed it would be,” said Raleigh, who snapped the Mariners’ playoff drought with a walk-off homer three years earlier. “This is a great, great, great moment for this organization and city. We know we still have more work to do; we’re really excited to have that opportunity.”

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‘Weight lifted’: Tigers top Guardians, tie for 1st

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'Weight lifted': Tigers top Guardians, tie for 1st

CLEVELAND — Unlike most things associated with baseball, a collective, early sigh from a dugout can’t be measured, but that doesn’t mean it didn’t happen for the Detroit Tigers on Thursday.

Detroit halted an eight-game losing streak behind two home runs in the first inning of a 4-2 victory against the Cleveland Guardians, including a leadoff blast by Jahmai Jones.

“To get the energy going and get that spark right off the bat was huge,” Jones said after the Tigers forged another tie with the Guardians atop the American League Central. “Everyone understands how important these last few games are.”

They’re especially important for the Tigers, who are attempting to avoid a historic fade from the postseason after seemingly having the division locked up weeks ago. Their skid has been matched by a Guardians hot streak, allowing the teams to pass each other in the standings Wednesday only to have the Tigers reengage the Guardians on Thursday.

“Everyone needs to see a little bit of positivity in the game,” Tigers manager AJ Hinch said. “We are human. We feed off a ton of things, including the good things. Of course everyone takes a collective breath.”

Two batters after Jones homered, Wenceel Perez did the same, giving a cushion to opener Troy Melton before he took the mound.

“That’s the ideal start when you’re on the road,” Melton said.

If Melton wasn’t hyped after being told he’d start just the evening before, the early lead provided some energy. He came out throwing gas, hitting 97 and 98 mph on the radar gun in the first inning as Cleveland went down in order.

“A little but more adrenaline with the game being more important,” Melton said.

He lasted 3⅔ innings before handing the ball to the first of five relievers who combined to give up just a single run the rest of the night. Detroit, meanwhile, tacked on runs in the second and fourth innings to secure a win that was badly needed.

To this point, the right process wasn’t enough; the right execution was. It’s been lacking for the Tigers of late, leading to a blown double-digit lead in the division. That included two blown leads in each of the first two games of this series, both losses.

But Thursday felt different.

“It’s hard to win,” Tigers left fielder Riley Greene said. “You show up every day not knowing what’s going to happen.”

The Tigers have been proving that to be true over and over again this month, but they still have a chance to right the ship before the days run out on them. They need help to win the division — Cleveland owns the tiebreaker — but they control their own destiny in the AL wild-card race. Their magic number is 4.

“It hasn’t been going the way we want it to go for a little while now, so it kind of felt like a weight lifted off our shoulders, like we’re back on track,” Melton said. “It was good to put a win together.”

The Tigers head to Boston, where the Red Sox have a one-game lead for the AL’s second wild card. The Guardians will host Texas, which has lost nine of 10. Meanwhile, both Detroit and Cleveland are one game ahead of Houston, which ended a five-game slide of its own, for the final AL wild-card spot.

“We want to win as many games as we can, and we know if we win as many games as we can, we’ll be just fine,” Hinch said. “Tonight was a good example of what we can bring to the table every night.”

Except they haven’t been. It’s been one bad moment after another, and with a trip to raucous Fenway Park for the final series, the Tigers will need to lock in.

“Even though they count the same, they don’t feel the same because of where we’re at,” Hinch said with a smile.

So perhaps the mojo has returned to the team that dominated the American League for the first half of the season.

One good win can do that.

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