Which teams take the next step in 2025? We have 11 candidates
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Bill ConnellyJul 29, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
No matter how we go about setting our preseason expectations for the 2025 college football season — polls, computer projections, pure gut instincts — we’re going to end up mostly right. We’re going to assume that the teams that were the best last season will be the best this season, and that’s going to bear out in most instances.
In other cases, however, we’re going to be hilariously incorrect. Take last season’s preseason top 10: Six of those teams ended up in the year-end top six and scored College Football Playoff bids, and two others were among the top three teams to miss the CFP. Very accurate! But then, preseason No. 9 Michigan and No. 10 Florida State fell from a combined 28-1 the year before to 10-15. Both finished unranked. They basically switched bodies, “Freaky Friday” style, with Arizona State and Indiana, who went from a combined 6-18 in 2023 to 24-5 with top-10 finishes and playoff bids.
Every season is mostly predictable except for a handful of absolute shocks. And the goal of this annual piece is to identify which of last season’s good surprise teams are most likely to sustain their gains and which of the bad surprise programs are most likely to bounce back. Using SP+ ratings and luck factors as our guide, we can usually pinpoint the likeliest teams for each category.
In last year’s edition of this column, the seven “most likely to sustain breakthroughs” teams I named went from a combined 49-41 with an average SP+ ranking of 53.9 to 60-32 and 40.6, respectively. Colorado, Colorado State and Miami won an additional 11 more games between them, while Colorado, Miami, Rutgers and Virginia Tech each improved by at least 14 more spots in SP+. Meanwhile, the six teams I named for the “most likely to rebound from a regression season” list went from a combined 27-47 with an 81.5 average ranking to 42-34 and 54.7. Five improved their win totals, and all six improved their SP+ rankings. Success!
The preseason poll rankings and final SP+ projections for 2025 are coming in August. But while we wait, let’s once again predict some of this coming season’s happier stories. Which of 2024’s unexpected breakthroughs might find even further heights? Which of last year’s disappointments are likeliest to bounce back?

Teams most likely to sustain 2024 gains
When our team surges to unexpected success in a given season, we like to think of this as the new reality. We’re good now! That’s never going to change again! Unfortunately, reality rarely agrees with that. Over the past 20 years, we’ve seen an average of 1.9 teams improving by at least 20 ratings points in SP+ and an average of 18.0 improving by at least 10 points. On average, these teams regress the next season 61% of the time, 32% by at least a touchdown.
These numbers haven’t necessarily changed in the 2020s, aka the transfer portal era. The rules of roster management have been completely altered, but since 2021 we’ve still seen 18.3 teams improving by 10-plus points in a given season. Interestingly, only 54% regressed the next year, 25% by a touchdown or more. We don’t yet know whether this is a small-sample effect or a genuine shift in the data, so I’ll still lean on the historic averages, but it’s something to watch.
In 2024, 16 teams improved by at least 10 points. Based on the averages above, we can expect about 40% of them — six or seven — to improve further in 2025. Only two were projected to do so in my most recent SP+ rankings, which means I’ll have to stray from the numbers to pull the list together. But after writing lengthy conference previews about each team, here are the teams I believe are the likeliest candidates to build on 2024’s surprise success:
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2023: 3-9 record, 107th in SP+ (-11.3 adjusted points per game, or 11.3 worse than the average college football team)
2024: 11-3, 35th (+9.4)
2025 projection (as of May): 8.4 average wins, 22nd (+12.2)
From my Big 12 preview: “It’s hard to know what to do with a late-season surge. ASU was solid for about two-thirds of the season and outstanding for one-third, and while that wasn’t enough to earn the trust of SP+ — and a 6-2 record in one-score finishes will be tough to duplicate — enough of last year’s key contributors return to think that this could be a top-15-level team again.”
Because of all those close wins, it might be difficult for Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils to match last year’s 11-win total, especially without Cam Skattebo around to grind out tough-as-hell yards at times. But Skattebo is just about the only major departure. Quarterback Sam Leavitt should have an improved receiving corps, where Jordyn Tyson is joined by late-2024 big-play producer Malik McClain, veteran transfer Jalen Moss (Fresno State) and high-upside youngsters such as Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama). Meanwhile, the offensive line and a defense that also surged down the stretch are both loaded with seniors.
This is a team built for another run and further improvement on paper, even if the god of close games turns against it at some point.
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2023: 3-9 record, 97th in SP+ (-8.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 8-5, 38th (+8.4)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.7 average wins, 35th (+7.5)
Again from the Big 12 preview: “Jake Spavital’s offense was magnificent. Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs, while backs Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass rushed for 1,699 rushing yards and 18 TDs. Baylor gained at least 20 yards on 8.7% of its snaps (10th in FBS) while gaining zero or fewer on just 27.7% (19th). That combination will score you lots of points. … The Bears scored 31 or more points nine times last year, and it would be a surprise if they did so fewer times in 2025. Big 12 contention, then, is up to the defense.”
Baylor won the last six games of the regular season, scoring an average of 12.1 points more than projected, and almost all of the reasons for the offensive surge return. It’s indeed up to Matt Powledge’s defense — which also improved in 2024, but only to 63rd in defensive SP+ — to determine the Bears’ fate. Experience won’t be an issue. Dave Aranda added 13 transfers to go with the 10 returnees who saw 200-plus snaps last year. And there are known playmakers such as tackle Jackie Marshall, incoming linebacker Travion Barnes (FIU) and nickelback Carl Williams IV, too. After rebounding into the SP+ top 40 last season, it sure looks like the Bears are built to crack the top 30 this time around.
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2023: 3-9 record, 119th in SP+ (-15.2 adjusted PPG)
2024: 9-4, 87th (-4.0)
2025 projection (as of May): 7.7 average wins, 91st (-7.1)
From my MAC preview: “[Pete Lembo] engineered immediate improvement in his return to MAC life, and now leading rusher Al-Jay Henderson, leading receiver Victor Snow, three starting O-linemen and 12 of 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps all return. … From a pure height-and-weight standpoint, the depth chart should look like something from a power conference.”
Buffalo was extremely all-or-nothing last season, overachieving against SP+ projections by at least 11 points six times and underachieving by that much three times. But that’s a net gain! Even without any semblance of offensive efficiency, the Bulls fielded their best team in four years. This time around, they should have enough offensive experience to avoid quite as many three-and-outs, and maybe no Group of 5 defense returns a proven trio of disruptors in end Kobe Stewart, outside linebacker Dion Crawford and inside linebacker Red Murdock. SP+ projects UB as the third-best team in the MAC, but after a season-opening trip to Minnesota — not a gimme for the Golden Gophers — the Bulls are at least slight projected favorites in every game.
I wish I felt better about their quarterback situation, where either journeyman Ta’Quan Roberson or little-used backup Gunnar Gray is likely to start. But aside from maybe Toledo, no other MAC team brings this much upside to the table in 2025.
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2023: 5-7 record, 75th in SP+ (-2.5 adjusted PPG)
2024: 10-3, 31st (+9.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 8.7 average wins, 19th (+14.3)
From my Big Ten preview: “The Illini won 10 games for the first time in 23 years, and [Bret] Bielema rang in 2025 by embarrassing Shane Beamer on national television. Illinois finished 16th in the AP poll, and now it leads the conference in returning production. … If experience produces sturdy play early in the season, look out. By the end of September, the Illini will have played relative toss-ups at Duke and Indiana and at home against USC. Win all three, and they’re going to be in the playoff discussion for quite a while. But it’s hard to get the breaks you need in close games for two straight years.”
Like Arizona State, Illinois could be another “improve on paper, regress in the win column” team depending on how long the good fortune in close games continues. But of the top four projected teams in the Big Ten, the Illini play only one and should win quite a few games by well more than one score. New go-to running back Aidan Laughery could enjoy a huge season, and if quarterback Luke Altmyer gets a good year from at least one transfer receiver — the most likely of the bunch: Hudson Clement (West Virginia) — this offense should be Illinois’ first top-50 attack in 15 years (!). I’m concerned about the remodeled defensive line, but coordinator Aaron Henry gets the benefit of the doubt. This should be a solid team.
0:42
Carson Beck: Joining Miami feels like ‘a full-circle moment’
Carson Beck joins “SportsCenter” to discuss growing up a Florida Gators fan and playing college football for some of their biggest rivals.
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2023: 7-6 record, 28th in SP+ (+9.6 adjusted PPG)
2024: 10-3, 10th (+21.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 9.2 average wins, 12th (+18.8)
From my ACC preview: “After a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season. … I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, [Georgia transfer Carson] Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.”
This one’s definitely more about sustaining gains than prepping for another surge. You can only rise so much higher than 10th. But I do think Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes have a chance of matching last year’s general quality, albeit in a more balanced way: The offense will almost certainly regress a bit while the defense improves. If the latter matches or outpaces the former, voila, sustained gains!
With good health and better help up front, defensive line star Rueben Bain Jr. could have a huge year, and I really like the additions in the secondary, especially ultra-aggressive safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State). The Miami defense should have never been as poor as it was late last fall, but it will have a chance to make amends in 2025.
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2023: 3-9 record, 91st in SP+ (-7.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 7-6, 51st (+4.9)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.1 average wins, 47th (+3.4)
From the ACC preview: “As delightful as they looked during their unbeaten start, they looked equally lost during an 0-6 finish. They more than doubled their win total in the most disappointing possible way. … [Desmond Reid] aside, most of last year’s most exciting players were freshmen and sophomores, and one can see how experience might sand down rough edges and make Pitt an ACC dark horse. But that late-season collapse was pretty ugly. It’s up to the Panthers to prove whether the first or second half of the season showed us the way forward.”
It’s hard to trust any Pitt prediction. The Panthers improved by five wins in 2021, regressed by six in 2023, then improved by four in 2024. In that tiny span, they have ranked as high as sixth in offensive SP+ and as low as 108th. They’re capable of anything. But last year’s offense jumped to 54th and would have risen even further if quarterback Eli Holstein had stayed healthy. With Holstein, Reid, a more experienced offensive line and big-time defensive disruptors such as linebacker Kyle Louis and end Jimmy Scott, this is at least a top-40 team. We’ll see about the “ACC dark horse” line above, but further improvement feels likely.

Teams most likely to rebound from a 2024 stumble
In a universe in which you’re measured by wins and losses, everything is zero-sum: If someone’s rising, someone’s falling. And the trend for collapses is almost identical to the trend for sudden surges. Over the past 20 years, an average of 1.8 teams have collapsed by at least 20 adjusted points per game in SP+, and an average of 16.9 have fallen by at least 10 points. Of those teams that stumble, 64% of them improve the next season and 36% by at least a touchdown. The trends of the 2020s have been relatively similar: Only about 14.5 teams have regressed by 10-plus points over the past four seasons — again, we’ll see if that’s a trend — and 68% have rebounded the next year.
Last year, two teams regressed by 20-plus points: the aforementioned Florida State Seminoles and Michigan Wolverines. Twelve others fell by at least 10 points. Averages suggest about 36% of these 14 teams — around five — will improve by a touchdown or more in 2025. Here are the five I think are most likely:
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2023: 9-4 record, 45th in SP+ (+5.9 adjusted PPG)
2024: 5-7, 111th (-11.7)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.2 average wins, 94th (-7.3)
From my Mountain West preview: “A lost season became an encouraging one late: Over their last five games, the Falcons overachieved against projections by an average of 17.7 points per game, and after a 20-3 loss to Army dropped them to 1-7, they won their last four games, most impressively destroying Oregon State, 28-0. The full-season averages still weren’t great, but as with Michigan, Air Force basically saw its win total cut in half from the previous season but somehow still ended up in a good mood.”
Even with Air Force’s recent success — at least nine wins in four consecutive full seasons — it was easy to predict a collapse in 2024, as the Falcons had one of the lowest returning production averages in recent memory. It’s almost as easy to predict a solid rebound this year, mainly because it already started late last season. If junior Josh Johnson is half-decent at quarterback, the offense should get back on track with help from fullback Dylan Carson, big-play slot back Cade Harris and error-free center Costen Cooley. The defense has quite a bit to replace in the secondary, but veteran defensive tackle Payton Zdroik should ensure disruption up front. This team should at least climb back to 7-5 or 8-4.
0:52
FSU QB Castellanos stands by Alabama jab
Florida State quarterback Tommy Castellanos speaks to reporters about what he meant by his jab at Alabama during the summer.
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2023: 13-1 record, ninth in SP+ (+19.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 2-10, 83rd (-3.2)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.8 average wins, 36th (+7.2)
Again from the ACC preview: “This was a collapse on the scale of Bobby Petrino’s last season at Louisville, Texas’ first season after 2009 BCS Championship disappointment and Notre Dame’s 2007 swoon under Charlie Weis. And it’s noteworthy that none of the coaches in charge during those collapses could right the ship. But [Mike] Norvell will try. … There are enough proven entities to assume the defense will bounce back. In fact, the collapse was so significant last season that we should assume some progression toward the mean everywhere. But how much of a rebound can you pull off after such a collapse?”
This is some pretty low-hanging fruit — if the Seminoles are average in 2025, that will qualify as solid improvement after last season’s disintegration. I’m not sure what to expect from a remodeled offense; new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has an awfully Malzahn-friendly QB in the speedy transfer Tommy Castellanos (Boston College) and new potential big-play receivers in Duce Robinson (USC), Squirrel White (Tennessee) and Randy Pittman Jr. (UCF), but it might be hard to get a rebuilt offensive line up to speed. Regardless, the defensive front six has some new playmakers, and again, the bar for improvement is incredibly low. I’m not sure how many games Norvell needs to win to save his job, but the Noles will almost certainly not go 2-10 again.
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2023: 15-0 record, first in SP+ (+31.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 8-5, 26th (+10.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 9.8 average wins, 10th (+21.5)
From the Big Ten preview: “The Wolverines went unbeaten when scoring at least 24 points (national scoring average: 28.0), but they reached that mark in only six of 13 games thanks primarily to a black hole at the QB position. They ranked 91st in Total QBR and 131st — last nationally among non-service academies — in passing yards per game (129.1). … Either five-star freshman Bryce Underwood or veteran transfer Mikey Keene (Fresno State) will begin the season at QB for Moore’s second Michigan team, and it’s probably fair to assume that Underwood will finish it there. His first spring was up-and-down, but going from the aforementioned black hole to the best high school prospect in the country is quite the leap.”
Seeing Michigan projected 10th overall was a bit concerning, as the offense still has loads of questions. But I’d be surprised if the Wolverines didn’t have a top-10 defense, and the schedule features only one projected top-15 team, per SP+. And they won eight games and beat Ohio State and Alabama while getting almost nothing from the QB. Even if Underwood isn’t ready to lead a CFP team yet, a return to 9-3 or so and occasional actual passing yardage don’t seem like too much to ask.
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2023: 3-9 record, 116th in SP+ (-14.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 1-11, 133rd (-25.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 3.4 average wins, 128th (-17.7)
From my Sun Belt preview: “What happens when you graft one-quarter of last year’s Sun Belt championship roster onto the worst roster in the conference? We’re going to find out! After signing more than 50 transfers in addition to the normal freshman/JUCO signing class, [Charles Huff] has almost completely flipped the roster in six months. … SP+ is setting the bar low because things like “recent history” still tend to matter more often than not. But as with Marshall, this is a total, unprojectable roster reset.”
The story of Southern Miss in 2025 could only take place in 2025 and no time before. Southern Miss was wretched last season, but almost no one’s left from that team. Meanwhile, quarterback Braylon Braxton, five receivers, four defensive linemen and eight defensive backs — including star corner Josh Moten — and quite a few others followed Charles Huff from Marshall to Hattiesburg.
I have no idea how to set accurate expectations, but as with Florida State, this is low-hanging fruit. It will be an improvement if the Golden Eagles go 3-9 and rank in the 120s. And with zero opponents projected higher than 71st in SP+, topping the 4.5 wins set at ESPN BET doesn’t seem outlandish.
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2023: 14-1 record, 13th in SP+ (+16.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 6-7, 58th (+3.1)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.3 average wins, 39th (+6.4)
Again from the Big Ten preview: “If [Demond Williams Jr.] is genuinely good — and doesn’t take a million sacks — then there’s a legitimate chance for a second-year leap for the UW offense. He’ll have a relatively experienced line in front of him and a skill corps that includes 1,000-yard back Jonah Coleman (and a physical backup in sophomore Adam Mohammed), receivers Denzel Boston and Penn State transfer Omari Evans, and another sophomore in big-play tight end Decker DeGraaf. … Fisch generated lots of traction in his second season at Arizona, and it’s not hard to envision something similar happening at UW. But he’ll need to hit on a lot of transfers, and he’ll need his faith in a guy with 153 dropbacks wholly rewarded.”
In the past four seasons, Washington has bounced from 4-8 to 11-2 to 14-1 to 6-7. That’s enough to give you motion sickness, but the combination of Williams, Coleman, Boston and a semi-experienced offensive line should do good things. Plus, the defense has enough exciting new players — tackle Ta’ita’i Uiagalelei (Arizona), linebacker Xe’ree Alexander (UCF), corner Tacario Davis (Arizona), safeties CJ Christian (Florida International) and Alex McLaughlin (NAU) — that new coordinator Ryan Walters might get away with the aggressive man defense he usually prefers. Playing four projected top-20 teams could make 8-4 or so the ceiling this year, but improvement still seems likely.
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Kiffin ready to make LSU nation’s ‘best program’
Published
2 hours agoon
December 1, 2025By
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Dave WilsonDec 1, 2025, 06:44 PM ET
Close- Dave Wilson is a college football reporter. He previously worked at The Dallas Morning News, San Diego Union-Tribune and Las Vegas Sun.
BATON ROUGE, La. — Lane Kiffin was introduced as new coach at LSU on Monday, promising to restore it to a place as “the best program in all of college football,” while detailing what he said was an excruciating decision to leave Ole Miss.
His arrival marked the end of a months-long saga in which Kiffin was the subject of rival coaching searches by Florida and LSU while Ole Miss tried to retain him. He leaves Oxford amid a historic season in which the Rebels are 11-1 and No. 7 in the College Football Playoff ranking.
Kiffin said the “last 48 hours, in a lot of ways, sucked,” saying he understood the passion of furious Ole Miss fans who were at the airport as he departed. He said he informed Ole Miss administrators on Saturday night that he was going to take the LSU job, and continued a conversation in earnest through Sunday trying to figure out a solution to how he could continue to coach the Rebels in what he called the “most historic sporting event in the history of the state of Mississippi, a home playoff game.
“There was no way to possibly do it, in my opinion, any better than we did from a timing standpoint,” Kiffin said.
Eventually Ole Miss athletic director Keith Carter made the decision that he would not coach the Rebels in the future, which Kiffin said was a decision he respected. He said Carter told him that while it may make sense make sense to everybody outside the program to keep the staff together for the playoffs, he’s the one that has to live in Oxford going forward after Kiffin is gone.
LSU athletic director Verge Ausberry called Kiffin “a big enough personality to operate in a state of big personalities,” and said LSU had no issues with Kiffin continuing to coach Ole Miss. But, he said, the reality is that there’s no rule like in the NFL where teams can’t contact coaches until the season is over.
“That’s not our fault,” Ausberry said. “It was a hand we were dealt, and we had to deal with it, and I had to protect LSU’s interests. I have great friends at all those other institutions in the SEC, but this is about doing what’s right for LSU.”
So Kiffin departed Oxford immediately for Baton Rouge. He arrived, drove by Tiger Stadium, a place he had coached many times, saw it lit up, and said he felt “the power of the place.”
“I called one person. I called Ed Orgeron,” Kiffin said, of his longtime friend and colleague who won a national title as the head coach at LSU in 2019. “I said, ‘hey, man, all I can do … This place just makes me want to talk like you right now.'”
Kiffin’s first 24 hours included a phone call with Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, who took a front-and-center approach to LSU’s coaching situation, which led to the departure of former athletic director Scott Woodward. Kiffin called the call “unique,” with a smile and said, “I could feel his passion and energy in that call for the state of Louisiana and for LSU football.”
Kiffin has a 117-53 record in 14 years as a college head coach at Tennessee, USC, Florida Atlantic and Ole Miss, including seven 10-win seasons. He’s also been a part of five of the most infamous exits in football history: Al Davis detailing his shortcomings on an overhead projector in Oakland, leaving after one year at Tennessee for the USC job, then being fired on the tarmac at USC, followed by Nick Saban dismissing him a week before a national championship game at Alabama, and now leaving Ole Miss for Baton Rouge before the playoff.
He said he did not get emotional by the reaction by fans, including, he said, fans who tried to run him off the road while driving with his son Knox in the car, saying that’s life in the SEC.
“I think that people get really upset when you leave somewhere, because they feel hurt because you’re doing a really good job,” Kiffin said. “They ain’t going to the airport and driving from all over to say those things and yell those things and try to run you off the road if you were doing bad.”
Kiffin credited his three biggest mentors, all of whom he considered among the greatest defensive minds in football: Monte Kiffin, Pete Carroll and Nick Saban. He credited Carroll, who he said promised his late father he’d look after Lane, for encouraging him to make the leap. He hinted that Saban, too, had nudged him as well.
“Coach Saban coached at another place in this conference, so I can’t really say exactly what he said,” Kiffin said, to laughs from the crowd. “But I’ll say, I think the world of Coach Saban, and I respect him. And so there’s a reason we’re here.”
He said his first task is wrapping up the Tigers’ recruiting class with the early signing period beginning Wednesday through Friday. Kiffin said Frank Wilson will continue to serve as the interim head coach for LSU’s impending bowl game, but did not have any further clarity on staff positions.
Kiffin agreed to a seven-year contract with LSU on Sunday that will pay him $13 million annually, including a provision where he will receive the same CFP bonus structure from LSU that he would received at Ole Miss, including $150,000 for the Rebels’ participation in a first-round CFP game, up to $250,000 for a quarterfinal appearance and another $1 million if Ole Miss wins the national championship.
He said on Monday that he was not aware of his contract terms, saying he never asks his agent, Jimmy Sexton, but rather is more concerned with what the financial resources are to build the program, including NIL for players. He said the plan he heard from LSU proved that this was the best job in football.
“When you take the history, tradition, passion and the great players in the state of Louisiana, no one can argue that when you’re in Tiger Stadium on Saturday night, there is nothing like it,” Kiffin said. “This place is built for championships with championship expectations — we understand that — but as an elite competitor that’s exactly what you want and that’s why we’re here.”
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Power Rankings: Texas Tech jumps into top five; two new teams join the list
Published
3 hours agoon
December 1, 2025By
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Lane Kiffin was understandably the story of the Egg Bowl, but the coach’s prolonged employment decision didn’t really qualify as surprising for those who have followed his career.
You know who was a surprise? Trinidad Chambliss. Did anyone outside of Oxford, Mississippi, or Big Rapids, Michigan, where Chambliss starred for Division II Ferris State before transferring to Ole Miss, know the quarterback’s name entering the season?
Chambliss, who replaced injured starter Austin Simmons in September and never looked back, became one of the season’s most delightful surprises. He again displayed his talent and poise in the Egg Bowl, recording season highs for passing yards (359) and touchdowns (4) in Ole Miss’ 38-19 win over rival Mississippi State. Chambliss finished the regular season with 3,016 passing yards and 18 touchdowns, to go along with 470 rushing yards and six scores.
There were other surprises on display over the weekend, from Oklahoma’s resurgent defense under coach Brent Venables, to Ohio State experiencing no drop-off under first-year starting quarterback Julian Sayin, to BYU improving to 11-1 behind its own young quarterback Bear Bachmeier, to Indiana being even more dominant than it was under coach Curt Cignetti in 2024.
As the regular season wraps up, here’s a look at the latest Power Rankings and the biggest surprises among the top 25 teams. — Adam Rittenberg

Previous ranking: 1![]()
Arvell Reese was merely a backup rotation player for the Buckeyes last season. This season, the edge rusher/linebacker has become a superstar. With 59 tackles and 6.5 sacks, Reese has wrecked opposing offenses. He’s in line to earn All-America honors — and suddenly is a virtual lock to go high in the first round of the next NFL draft. Ohio State boasted the No. 1 statistical defense last season on the way to winning the national championship. This season, its defense is even better — and Reese’s emergence is a major reason why. With Saturday’s 27-9 win at Michigan, Ohio State has become the first team since Florida’s 1975 team to give up 16 or fewer points in each of its first 12 games, according to ESPN Research. With Reese joining fellow linebacker Sonny Styles, defensive end Caden Curry and reigning All-America safety Caleb Downs, the talented Buckeyes have a championship-caliber unit again. — Jake Trotter
Previous ranking: 2![]()
The most surprising thing about coach Curt Cignetti’s second season at IU is how much it resembled the first, only even more dominant. Indiana went from its first 11-win season in 2024 to its first 12-win season in 2025, despite facing tougher conference competition, and recorded eight wins by 24 points or more while scoring 55 or more points six times, including Friday’s 56-3 shellacking of rival Purdue in the Old Oaken Bucket game.
The Hoosiers rushed for 355 yards and five touchdowns against Purdue, displaying a run game that has elevated substantially. IU averaged 229.8 rushing yards during the regular season, up from 165.1 in 2024, as a deeper group of running backs and offensive linemen pummeled opponents. Though the Hoosiers elevated their run game, they maintained their stifling defense against the run, giving up only 951 yards in 12 games. — Rittenberg
Previous ranking: 4
Gunner Stockton, for all his talents, seems almost required to be underappreciated. His rise to QB1 this offseason was considered something of a risky bet, particularly after Georgia’s early exit from the playoff following Carson Beck‘s injury last season. Stockton is soft-spoken and reserved, and even his best games tend to be overshadowed by other performances. And yet, to look back on Georgia’s 11-1 season in 2025, it’s impossible to say anyone has made a bigger impact than Stockton. It hasn’t always been pretty — that’s part of the experience, really — but it has always been gritty and resilient and, at times, exhilarating. Stockton wraps the regular season with nearly 3,000 total yards, 28 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions, numbers that largely mirrored Beck’s 2024 season, only with fewer costly mistakes. — David Hale
Previous ranking: 7
Though there was a ton of internal optimism about what Texas Tech could achieve on defense in 2025 with the arrival of coordinator Shiel Wood and 10 high-profile transfer portal additions, it has never seen anything like this in Lubbock. The 11-1 Red Raiders’ 49-0 shutout of West Virginia on Saturday closed out a historic regular season for this unit. Texas Tech has the No. 3 scoring defense in FBS at 11.25 points per game, which ranks second best in Big 12 history behind the 2009 Nebraska defense powered by Ndamukong Suh. Tech gave up only 100 total points in Big 12 conference play, the fewest by a defense since 2003 when the Big 12 played eight conference games. Now it’s time for a rematch with BYU and an offense it shut out for 3½ quarters on Nov. 8. — Max Olson
Previous ranking: 5![]()
The Ducks handled what was a tricky trip to end the season to Seattle with the proper amount of focus; they never trailed and beat rival Washington 26-14 to end their third straight season with at least 11 wins under Dan Lanning. Though it won’t be defending its Big Ten title from last season, Oregon heads into the playoff with an identity on offense that isn’t surprising, but the way it happened wasn’t as expected.
Even though the Ducks were able to snag one of the top running backs in the transfer portal — Makhi Hughes — they have become an elite running team without him. Hughes is redshirting the season and Oregon has not missed him — Noah Whittington, Jayden Limar and dynamic freshmen Dierre Hill Jr. and Jordon Davison have together been a force, totaling over 2,000 yards between them as well as 26 touchdowns. Quarterback Dante Moore has shown himself to be one of the top quarterbacks, but if the Ducks succeed in December and January, they will be fueled by their ground game. — Paolo Uggetti
Previous ranking: 6![]()
When the season started, Trinidad Chambliss was a backup quarterback from Division II Ferris State just hoping for an opportunity. That moment came in Week 3, after starter Austin Simmons sustained a foot injury and could not play. Chambliss made the most of his start and never looked back, leading the Rebels to an 11-1 season and what should be their first at-large berth in the College Football Playoff.
That Chambliss has been so good in his first season at the Division I level has been the biggest surprise at Ole Miss and one of the biggest surprises in college football. Especially since he was not pegged to start, and pundits thought Ole Miss would take a step back with Jaxson Dart off to the NFL draft. Chambliss ranks fourth in the SEC with 3,016 yards passing, throwing 18 touchdown passes to only three interceptions. — Andrea Adelson
Previous ranking: 3
The Aggies were picked to finish eighth in the preseason SEC media poll, then reeled off an 11-1 regular season in which they were in contention for the SEC championship game until a final, devastating loss to Texas, of all teams. The season qualifies as a bit of a surprise, with an explosive offense that was a vast improvement over 2024’s, which ranked 50th in scoring offense.
This season, Marcel Reed, along with Mario Craver and KC Concepcion, stretched the field, the team averaged 36.3 points (16th) and Reed had a breakout season, second in the SEC to Diego Pavia with 35 total touchdowns. Obviously, in a 27-17 loss to Texas to end the season, the Aggies came back to earth with Reed being held to 180 passing yards and no touchdowns and two interceptions, and adding 71 yards rushing. But the playoff looms for the Aggies, and they get another chance to rewrite an ending to a dream season. — Dave Wilson
Previous ranking: 8![]()
It’s difficult to say there’s anything surprising about a Brent Venables defense being elite. But after losing defensive stars Billy Bowman Jr. and Danny Stutsman to the NFL draft, it might have been hard to imagine the Sooners could be this good. Following Oklahoma’s regular-season finale win over LSU on Saturday, the Sooners lead the SEC in total defense (273.6 YPG), run defense (81.4 YPG) and scoring defense (13.9 PPG). Only Texas Tech and Indiana are giving up less rushing yards per game, and Oklahoma’s smothering pass rush sits level alongside Texas A&M for the national sacks lead (41). With Venables calling plays again, the Sooners’ defense has been good enough to mask a broadly mediocre offense this fall, carrying Oklahoma almost certainly to its first playoff appearance since 2019. — Eli Lederman
Previous ranking: 10
Two games into the season, Notre Dame’s playoff hopes seemed dead and buried. The idea that an 0-2 team would run the table to claw its way back into the playoff picture didn’t really seem worth considering. So, from that standpoint, the Irish’s current position — at 10-2 with a good chance of being selected for the playoff — is surprising. But anyone who has watched Notre Dame play over the past several weeks understands this is a team not only worthy of selection, but capable of making a deep playoff run. — Kyle Bonagura
Previous ranking: 9
The storyline we have written about the most this season has been the most surprising: The Crimson Tide have not been as dominant as expected on the offensive line, and their run game has struggled for any consistency. Alabama was projected to have one of the better lines in the country, particularly with the return of Kadyn Proctor. But even he struggled early to maintain his weight and had his own moments when he was not as dominant as he could have been.
But the fact Alabama still has a chance to win the SEC, with one of the worst rushing offenses in the country, certainly comes as a surprise. Alabama ranks No. 108 in the country in rushing, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. Jam Miller has either been hurt or played through an injury for most of the season and left the game against Auburn because of a lower leg injury. His status is up in the air for the SEC title game. He leads the team with 493 yards rushing — on pace for the fewest yards by the team’s leading rusher since 1990. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 11![]()
At 11-1, there seems to be a consensus that if BYU loses to Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, it won’t make the playoff — and that does seem to be the most likely scenario. But perhaps the Cougars deserve more consideration. If Steve Sarkisian can claim Texas being left out would be “a travesty,” what does that mean for an 11-win team whose lone loss was to a team capable of winning the whole thing? — Bonagura
Previous ranking: 12![]()
Freshman receiver Malachi Toney, the player nicknamed “Baby Jesus” because he has been called a savior on the football field, emerged as the most dynamic player in the Miami offense and arguably in the entire country as an 18-year-old. Miami had questions about its receiver group headed into the season after losing its top four players from a year ago. Toney stepped into the void and made his presence felt immediate against Notre Dame, then kept going with one game more impressive than the next. Toney ended the regular season leading the team with 84 catches for 970 yards and seven touchdowns, while also throwing for two touchdowns and rushing for another. He had two games with 12 or more receptions this season. All other true freshmen in FBS have combined for one such game. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 14
Though the Commodores returned Diego Pavia at quarterback, there were not many believers headed into the season. Vanderbilt was picked to finish 13th in the SEC preseason media poll. But the surprise of the season is the team itself. Pavia reached an even higher level, leading Vanderbilt to its first 10-win season in program history and potentially securing a spot for the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York next week. Vanderbilt also won a school-record six SEC games, beat Tennessee for the first time since 2018 and also took down LSU and Missouri. Pavia ranks second in the SEC with 3,192 yards passing — a single-season school record — and also ran for 826 yards and nine touchdowns. He ranks fourth on the school career list for total yards. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 16
There was lots of optimism around the Longhorns this season as a first-time preseason No. 1. Still, upon inspection, the offense was going to be a bit of a mystery with Arch Manning, a first-time starter, and wholesale changes at offensive line and wide receiver. What wasn’t expected was the midseason swoon on defense. True, the Horns lost Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba in the secondary, but Michael Taaffe, an All-American returned as well as several talented corners. Texas was able to right the ship in time to pull off a big win over No. 3 Texas A&M in Austin, grabbing two fourth-quarter interceptions after pressuring Marcel Reed all night in a 27-17 win. But looking back at the season, the 97th-ranked passing defense’s struggles against DJ Lagway, who had his best game of 2025 for 3-9 Florida in an upset of Texas, could prove to be the breaking point in Texas’ playoff hopes. — Wilson
Previous ranking: 13
After the initial playoff rankings were released, it seemed possible that if enough results went in Utah’s favor, the Utes could back their way into the playoff, but it didn’t play out that way. The margin between Utah and the playoff was slim. Consider this: In the Utes’ only two losses of the season, they led in the fourth quarter (against BYU) and trailed by three in the fourth quarter (Texas Tech). Still, even if the Utes lose their bowl game, they are almost guaranteed to finish as a top-20 team, which would be the fourth time in the past eight years. — Bonagura
Previous ranking: 17
The Cavaliers went from one of the worst rushing offenses in the ACC to one of the best this season thanks to one of the best transfers they signed: running back J’Mari Taylor from NC Central. Taylor walked on at NC Central in 2020 just hoping for a chance, and when he transferred to Virginia this past offseason, the hope was that he would help the Cavaliers run the ball more consistently. He did that and more, finishing with 997 yards rushing in the regular season to lead the ACC. He is the first Virginia running back to lead the conference in rushing since Antwoine Womack 25 years ago. Thanks to Taylor’s dominance on the ground, Virginia was able to have more balance with its offense, and that allowed the Cavaliers to make it to the ACC championship game — one win away from making their first CFP appearance. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 19
Lincoln Riley’s team has started slowly in every big game it has played this season. In the case of losses to Illinois, Notre Dame and Oregon, the Trojans were not able to overcome that flaw. But in every other game this season, including in Saturday’s season finale against UCLA in which they trailed 10-7 at half, they have been able to find another gear in the second half to win.
The Trojans showed progress this season compared to a 7-5 record in 2024, primarily because they became a very good second-half team — not the case last season — and were able to win most of their close games. Now, at 9-3, is that enough to satisfy the caliber of program USC portends to be? Until Riley gets the Trojans to the College Football Playoff, the answer is probably no. — Uggetti
Previous ranking: 15
Saturday was not a banner day for freshman receiver Andrew Marsh, who finished without a catch in a 27-9 loss to Ohio State. Still, a month deep into the season, Marsh emerged from the fringes of the receiver rotation to become quarterback Bryce Underwood‘s go-to target. Marsh ended the regular season leading the Wolverines with 42 receptions for 641 yards and three touchdowns, despite sitting on only one catch until Oct. 4. Saturday was a massive disappointment for the Michigan offense. But the Wolverines have a lot to build on moving forward with Underwood and Marsh leading the passing attack. — Trotter
Previous ranking: NR
Brent Brennan and his staff pulled off one of the best turnarounds in college football in Year 2, rebounding from a bitterly disappointing 4-8 debut with a 9-3 run in 2025 that should conclude with a top-25 finish. Two of those losses also were pretty close — a double-overtime defeat to BYU and a loss at Houston on a last-second field goal. The Wildcats responded with a five-game win streak and closed out Big 12 play with a 23-7 victory over rival Arizona State. This staff did a tremendous job of flipping its fortunes this offseason by pairing 27 incoming transfers with quarterback Noah Fifita and a strong core of team leaders who chose to stay through tough times and help Brennan get things fixed. — Olson
Previous ranking: 20![]()
The Mean Green are one of the best stories of the 2025 season, with a quarterback (Drew Mestemaker) who didn’t even start in high school, throwing for 3,825 yards and 29 touchdowns to four interceptions, leading the nation’s top offense in yards per game (516.2), yards per play (7.5) and points per game (46.4). The 11 wins are a school record, with still a conference championship game to go and a chance to earn the unthinkable following 5-7 and 6-7 seasons in coach Eric Morris’ first two years: a spot in the College Football Playoff field. But all of that success comes at a price. Morris has already accepted the Oklahoma State coaching job, though he will finish out the season, and Mestemaker could be right behind him. But the Mean Green have had a season for the ages in Denton. — Wilson
Previous ranking: 21![]()
Despite losing Darian Mensah to Duke in the offseason, not signing eventual replacement Jake Retzlaff until the summer and what has turned out to be a pretty lackluster run game on average, Tulane’s offense has remained excellent in 2025. The Green Wave sleepwalked through Saturday’s 27-0 win over Charlotte, but Retzlaff still threw for 291 yards, bringing him to 2,717 yards for the season in addition to 615 non-sack rushing yards. His go-to receiver has changed at times this season, but Anthony Brown-Stephens led the way with nine catches and 98 yards Saturday. The Green Wave defense has been shaky, especially against the pass — and that could be a problem against North Texas in the American championship game — but Retzlaff & Co. can keep up in a track meet. — Bill Connelly
Previous ranking: 24
The Dukes are now one win away from potentially advancing to the College Football Playoff. Coach Bob Chesney’s squad closed out an 11-1 regular season and an 8-0 run through conference play with a 59-10 blowout of Coastal Carolina. This team has built on a nine-win season in 2024 with one of the most dominant runs through conference play the Sun Belt has ever seen. James Madison’s average margin of victory in Sun Belt play has been 27.4 points. It will host Troy (8-4) in the Sun Belt championship game and hope one more strong showing earns some respect from the CFP committee. Another outcome that can absolutely help JMU’s chances: Duke upsetting Virginia in the ACC title game would create a real possibility of two G5 teams earning bids in the 12-team CFP. — Olson
Previous ranking: 25
After last season’s eight-overtime loss to Georgia, there was a sense that something significant had changed for Georgia Tech. No, the Yellow Jackets weren’t going to spend like Texas Tech in the offseason, but that game served notice that, with enough commitment, there was every reason to believe this program could compete with the big boys. For most of 2025, that’s exactly what happened — even in another nail-biter with the Bulldogs on Friday. Georgia Tech was good. Just not good enough.
A late-season swoon that included losses to NC State, Pitt and, again, Georgia, ultimately nixed the year’s highest hopes, but a 10-win campaign is still within reach, which, while not exactly surprising, still would constitute a high-water mark for the program in more than a decade. Haynes King‘s brilliance, the emergence of stars such as Malachi Hosley, and the grunt work done by Jordan van den Berg, Keylan Rutledge and so many other players who crafted their games in head coach Brent Key’s image have made for a surprisingly fun season, even if it ultimately fell short of the highest of aspirations. — Hale
Previous ranking: 18
For better or worse, this was an old Josh Heupel team. After making a playoff run with a great defense and frustrating offense, Heupel’s Vols have flipped back to being all offense, little defense. It has given up over 30 points seven times, including Saturday’s demoralizing 45-24 loss to Vanderbilt, its first defeat to the Commodores in seven years. Still, despite losing starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava to the transfer portal in the spring, the offense improved dramatically, and with just one extra stop against Georgia and Oklahoma, the Vols have remained in the playoff hunt the entire season. A very mixed bag in 2025. — Connelly
Previous ranking: NR
Perhaps it should be no surprise that Iowa’s offense improved again in 2025 after offensive coordinator Tim Lester lifted the Hawkeyes from No. 132 to No. 72 in scoring offense a season ago. But considering the offenses Iowa fans were subjected to in 2022 and 2023, any and every improvement must be celebrated. The Hawkeyes close the regular season with the nation’s 60th-ranked scoring offense — up to 28.9 points from 27.7 a year ago — marking the program’s best finish in the category since 2020.
The addition of transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski provided Iowa with a fresh red zone rushing presence and made the Hawkeyes’ passing attack ever so slightly more explosive. Lester also deserves credit for maintaining one of the Big Ten’s top rushing attacks despite losing 2024 rushing leader Kaleb Johnson. Simply back in the middle of the pack offensively within the conference, Kirk Ferentz and Iowa proved just how competitive it can be in 2025 on its way to eight-plus wins for the 10th time since 2015. — Lederman
Sports
Mississippi St. flips ex-Auburn commit Womack
Published
5 hours agoon
December 1, 2025By
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Four-star prospect Bralan Womack, ESPN’s No. 3 safety in the 2026 class, flipped his commitment from Auburn to Mississippi State on Monday, sealing a historic late-cycle pledge for coach Jeff Lebby and the Bulldogs.
Womack, a 6-foot, 200-pound defender from Flowood, Mississippi, is the No. 39 overall prospect in the 2026 ESPN 300. If he signs later this week, Womack will join the in-state Bulldogs as the school’s highest-ranked signee in the ESPN recruiting era, dating to 2006.
Prior to Monday, Womack had spent the fall as the top-ranked commit in Auburn’s 2026 class after picking the Tigers over Florida, Ohio State and Texas A&M in August. However, Auburn’s decision to fire coach Hugh Freeze on Nov. 2 unsettled Womack’s recruitment, opening the door to late fall flip interest from LSU, Mississippi State and Texas A&M.
Womack’s exit from the Tigers’ incoming class comes one day after the program announced the hiring of South Florida coach Alex Golesh on Sunday. Womack, who visited Auburn for the Iron Bowl in Week 14, told ESPN on Nov. 25 that his decision would be tied closely to the outcome of the Tigers’ coaching search and interim coach D.J. Durkin’s role with the program in the future.
Whether or not Durkin will remain on Golesh’s staff remains unclear as of Monday.
Womack, ESPN’s No. 3 recruit in the state of Mississippi, won back-to-back state titles in his sophomore and junior seasons at Mississippi’s Hartfield Academy. He entered his senior campaign this fall as the state’s reigning Gatorade Football Player of the Year.
Womack has visited each of LSU, Mississippi State and Texas A&M since late October. He told ESPN that the Bulldogs turned up the heat on his recruitment early last month, eventually hosting him twice in November, most recently during last weekend’s Egg Bowl defeat to Ole Miss.
Womack said the Bulldogs’ pitched him on becoming the defensive version of star freshman quarterback Kamario Taylor — an in-state signee in the 2025 class who made his first career start in Week 14 — and highlighted the program’s progress across two seasons under Lebby.
“You can see his ability to go out and get players and build confidence in a locker room that didn’t have much when he walked in,” Womack said. That takes a lot. You can see what he’s doing.”‘
Womack now stands as the lone ESPN 300 pledge in Mississippi State’s 2026 signing class with the three-day early signing period set to open Wednesday morning. Prior to his flip, the Bulldogs’ incoming class sat at No. 49 in ESPN’s class rankings for the 2026 cycle.
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