Connect with us

Published

on

It’s MLB trade season!

From the early deals that got things started to the last-minute rush of deadline day activity, this is your one-stop shop for grades and analysis breaking down the details for this year’s biggest trades.

ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield evaluate and grade the most significant moves below.


Rangers get:
RHP Merrill Kelly

Diamondbacks get:
LHP Kohl Drake
LHP Mitch Bratt
RHP David Hagaman

Rangers grade: B-

When the Rangers won the 2023 World Series, they started the season fast, hit the skids, held on to get into the AL bracket and then caught fire again in October. This year’s team is following a very different trajectory. For much of the season, the Texas offense was so mystifyingly bad that it undermined a strong pitching staff, especially the rotation. Not long ago, it seemed very unlikely Texas would be in position to add a player of Kelly’s caliber, but here we are.

Kelly will bump one of the Rangers’ young starters — Kumar Rocker or Jack Leiter — from the core-five rotation, with Rocker the most likely choice and a candidate to become, for now, a leverage reliever. If Tyler Mahle can make it back from a rotator cuff issue, they’ll both get bumped. But this is a good problem to have for a team trying to keep pace in a clustered AL wild-card chase, and an AL West race that remains up for grabs.

Kelly’s salary in this last year before he hits free agency is just $7 million and the Rangers’ portion of that won’t get them to the first luxury tax threshold and might even leave some space for more additions — preferably for the bullpen. (This assumes of course that staying under the threshold is a goal.) Kelly is a consistent No. 2-type starter who has a better career road ERA than at home after toiling so much in the hitter-ish Chase Field.

It’s a right-now upgrade, but the prospect price is pretty steep here for a player on an expiring deal who adds to an area of existing strength. Hence the solid but not superlative grade, but it’s an odds booster for the Rangers.

Diamondbacks grade: B+

Diamondbacks baseball chief Mike Hazen doesn’t mess around when he decides to subtract. The Snakes are going to look very different coming out of the deadline, and their fans have to wonder what might have been if Arizona had enjoyed better injury luck.

Drake is the standout here, a 6-5 lefty with good stuff, a deep arsenal and above-average command, he has a chance to be at least a mid-rotation starter. Hagaman is raw and, at 22, remains in the low minors as he seeks to improve his control enough to allow his lively pitches to play.

If Drake doesn’t lead this pack, Bratt does. Another lefty, Bratt was a top-10 Rangers prospect at MLB Pipeline who is having a big season in the Double-A Texas League. Bratt, 21, is very young for that level, yet is 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA, 106 strikeouts and just 16 walks. He has given up 13 long balls. — Doolittle


Mets get:
CF Cedric Mullins

Orioles get:
RHP Anthony Nunez
RHP Raimon Gomez
RHP Chandler Marsh

Mets grade: B

Center field was an area of need for a Mets team that is all-in for a 2025 push. Mullins, a former All-Star and top-10 MVP finisher, has the pedigree of a first-division performer at that spot. And, let’s face it, the remaining options in center on the trade market were pretty limited.

Ideally, the Mets would have added a righty option in center, as their recent outfield mix of Juan Soto, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil consisted of all lefties, like Mullins, and righty-swinging Tyrone Taylor has had a poor season at the plate. But you have to choose from what the market yields, and Mullins is a proven guy. For what it’s worth, Mullins’ numbers against righty pitching this season are brutal. In that regard, he has the same odd platoon splits as McNeil.

The key to this deal might have been the Mets’ evaluation of where Mullins is at as a defender. The defensive rating systems differ tremendously on him in that regard, with assessment ranging from awful to above average. As it is, New York gets a quality player motivated by impending free agency, without giving up anyone it will miss.

Orioles grade: C+

All three hurlers Baltimore picked up from the Mets are righty relievers, with Nunez ranking the highest of the trio. A two-way player in college and a hitter after being drafted in the 29th round by the Padres in 2019, Nunez moved to the mound full time after signing with the Mets as a minor league free agent last season.

The switch has gone well. Nunez has a 1.80 ERA while striking out 13 batters per nine innings over the last two seasons. His success has continued all the way to his current level, Double-A, and he should be a big league relief option for the Orioles sooner than later.

It’s not the sexiest return for someone who contributed as much to the Orioles as Mullins. But he did himself and the O’s no favors with his replacement-level season to date as he approaches free agency. — Doolittle


Rays get:
RHP Griffin Jax

Twins get:
RHP Taj Bradley

Rays grade: C

It’s been a fairly stunning sequence between the Rays and Bradley. After Tampa Bay demoted the long-touted righty earlier this month, Bradley responded with seven no-hit scoreless innings in a Triple-A start on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Rays dealt Zack Littell to Cincinnati, seemingly opening the door to bring Bradley back into the big league rotation. Not so fast! Bradley’s next start will be for the Twins.

The Rays apparently became convinced that Bradley needed a change of scenery, and at the same time, they add one of the game’s most vicious relievers in Jax. It’s been a strange season for the 30-year-old righty, who sports a 4.50 ERA but a 2.00 FIP. Which is more telling? Given Jax’s 72 strikeouts in 46 innings, we’ll go with the latter. Both hurlers have multiple years of team control remaining.

The grade reflects the simple reality that I’m not sure how to process this. Generally, you don’t trade a talented 24-year-old starter for a talented 30-year-old short reliever. But the Rays generally know what they are doing.

Twins grade: B+

Getting Bradley means the Twins have locked down a deep core of rotation hurlers for the next few seasons, especially since rumors of a Joe Ryan trade didn’t come to fruition. Minnesota’s pitching program has been a good one, though of course so has Tampa Bay’s, but perhaps the Twins can unlock the potential that marked Bradley as a top prospect. With the Twins offloading everyone not nailed down over the past couple of days, the bullpen picture in particular now looks problematic with Jax joining Jhoan Duran and Louis Varland in the club of ex-Twins. — Doolittle


Red Sox get:
RHP Dustin May

Dodgers get:
OF James Tibbs III
OF Zach Ehrhard

Red Sox grade: C-

May was a key pitcher on the 2020 World Series championship team for the Dodgers, but pitched just 101 innings over the next four seasons before returning this year and posting a 4.85 ERA in 18 starts. As the ERA suggests, he hasn’t been too effective, with both a high home run rate and a high walk rate. He doesn’t throw as hard as he did back in 2020, and that shows up in how hard his sinker has been hit this season (.285 average and .633 slugging percentage).

May is heading into free agency, so this doesn’t even fit the idea of “let’s get him this season and maybe he’ll be better next year as he’s further removed from surgery.” He can join the rotation in place of Richard Fitts or even a mediocre Walker Buehler, or maybe he goes to the bullpen, where his fastball might play up a little better.

Dodgers grade: C+

Tibbs was the Giants’ first-round pick last year out of Florida State before going to the Red Sox in the Rafael Devers deal, but he hasn’t hit much at all after a promotion to Double-A (.205/.321/.268 in 29 games). Still, the Dodgers have had success before with guys like this — think of Max Muncy and Chris Taylor — so getting him for a pitcher they didn’t need is worth the roll of the dice even if it never pans out. — Schoenfield


Astros get:
SS Carlos Correa

Twins get:
LHP Matt Mikulski

Astros grade: B

Rumors of this possible trade started floating a couple of days ago, although it still feels like a George Foreman uppercut: Whammo! To facilitate the deal, the Twins will include $33 million to help cover the remaining $103 million or so owed Correa over the rest of 2025 and the next three seasons (he also has some complicated vesting options that run through 2032).

The Astros have been hemorrhaging players via injury, including both shortstop Jeremy Pena and third baseman Isaac Paredes, but have remarkably maintained their lead in the AL West even though half the lineup looks like it should be playing for Triple-A Sugar Land (which it was not so long ago). With Pena apparently set to return on Friday, that means Correa will take over at third base — where he has never played a professional inning.

What kind of player are the Astros getting? Correa turns 31 in September and has battled injuries for years and offensive inconsistency in recent seasons. He had a strong year at the plate in 2024 but was a below-average hitter in 2023 and so far in 2025. He still has plus bat speed and above-average contact rates, but he’s hitting more balls on the ground than ever, plus his walk rate has declined. His defensive metrics at shortstop have likewise declined, although he should make a smooth and quick transition to third base.

Bottom line: Baseball Reference values him at just 0.1 WAR in 2025, FanGraphs a little higher at 1.1. He’s one year removed from being a good player, but it seems fair to suggest he’s unlikely be an elite player again given his age and injury history. Of course, a return to Houston — where Correa still lives in the offseason — could serve as a rejuvenation of sorts, as he never seemed completely comfortable with the Twins. Still, even if the trade helps the Astros in 2025, there is long-term risk here, even with the Twins paying down some of the future salary.

Going back to last offseason with the Kyle Tucker trade and letting Alex Bregman go to now bringing Correa back, it’s hard to figure out the Astros’ philosophy, and no doubt this deal might have come from owner Jim Crane, a big fan of Correa’s. One thing is clear though: The Astros keep on winning.

Twins grade: C

Well, it’s officially a crushingly disappointing season in Minnesota, with the trades of Correa, Jhoan Duran and Harrison Bader. It’s hard to argue against the decision to trade away these guys given the Twins’ 51-57 record, but this feels like a setback season for an organization that has shown promise since winning 101 games in 2019 but never figured out how to get over the top (or spent a little extra money in trying to do so).

In one sense, however, this trade makes perfect sense: Correa is being paid a superstar salary, and he’s no longer a superstar. Given their self-imposed payroll cap, it might improve the Twins’ long-term chances, assuming they can properly reinvest that money in the right players. This trade is mostly about dumping the salary rather than what the Twins got in return. We could label this one incomplete until we see what the Twins do in the offseason. For now, we’ll give it a C, which sums up the Carlos Correa era in Minnesota that will end with just one playoff appearance in four seasons. — Schoenfield


Padres get:
1B/DH Ryan O’Hearn
OF Ramon Laureano

Orioles get:
RHP Boston Bateman
IF Cobb Hightower
IF/OF Victor Figueroa
RHP Tyson Neighbors
INF Brandon Butterworth
RHP Tanner Smith

Padres grade: A-

So I was a little down in my assessment of the Padres’ blockbuster with the Athletics, believing that move to be a precursor to San Diego paring payroll. Clearly, I don’t know AJ Preller at all, though I thought I did. The Padres are … all … the … way … in, with Preller patching up three lineup holes and adding dynamism to his roster on the same day.

Between his stints in Kansas City and Baltimore, O’Hearn was DFA’d several times, and entering his age-29 season, there was little to indicate he’d become a sought-after deadline target. But he found himself as an Oriole, producing all through his time in Baltimore, culminating this year with being selected as the AL’s All-Star DH. Now he has a chance to play a major role for a franchise doing everything it can to win its first-ever championship.

Meanwhile, Laureano has been even better than O’Hearn at the plate and slots into left field for San Diego, one of the weakest spots of any contending team. The Padres entered the day ranked 28th in left by wins above average, 29th at DH and dead last at catcher. They now have Laureano, O’Hearn and Freddy Fermin to upgrade those slots. Look out, Dodgers.

Orioles grade: B+

The Orioles are doing the right thing in shedding their expiring deals and adding prospects in bulk to replenish their system, especially on the pitching side. Meanwhile, in moving Ramon Urias, O’Hearn, Laureano and Cedric Mullins over the past couple of days, Baltimore can go young all around the diamond over the next two months and see what its rebuilding effort of a few years ago truly wrought.

Bateman headlines this return. A 6-8 lefty, MLB Pipeline grades him with an above-average fastball and a plus curve to go with average command. It’s a nice foundation to work from and, at 19, the second-round pick from 2024 is performing well at Low-A. — Doolittle


Astros get:
OF Jesus Sanchez

Marlins get:
SS Chase Jaworsky
RHP Ryan Gusto
OF Esmil Valencia

Astros grade: C-

More than anything, the addition of Sanchez means we aren’t likely to see much more, if any, of Jose Altuve playing left field. We’ll probably also see much less of Cooper Hummel and his career 55 OPS+. Sanchez is a second-division, platoon-level outfielder. He plays average defense on the corners, can play center in a pinch, and has decent secondary skills at the plate against righties. He doesn’t hit southpaws at all and was a bit overexposed during his time in Miami.

When Jeremy Pena returns to action, Mauricio Dubon might end up taking some of Sanchez’s time in left, especially against lefties, but that’s fine. Sanchez plugs a right-now gap for an injury-riddled team that has been flailing on offense.

Marlins grade: B

Ordinarily, I’d hammer on the Marlins for offloading a veteran regular, but as you’ve probably surmised, I’m not that sold on Sanchez as a contention-worthy regular. Jaworsky was one of the top 10 prospects in Houston, though it’s not a highly rated system. Gusto has been invaluable for the Astros in helping them work through rotation injuries. His 4.92 rookie season ERA is a bit misleading given his supporting numbers, and he’ll add to a deepening arsenal of Marlins rotation options.

It’s a sensible move for Miami, but it does merit mentioning: The Marlins might not be in the playoff race, but they have been building up momentum, and their pitching staff has been one of baseball’s hottest for more than two months. Let’s hope their deadline direction doesn’t stunt those positive developments. — Doolittle


Yankees get:
RHP David Bednar

Pirates get:
C Rafael Flores
C Edgleen Perez
OF Brian Sanchez

Yankees grade: B+

It’s no secret the Yankees desired bullpen help — usually a strength of the team, the pen ranks 21st in the majors with a 4.24 ERA, a figure that has ballooned to 6.29 in July. Closer Devin Williams has had a wildly inconsistent season after coming over from the Brewers, struggling in April, looking good for a couple of months, but now he has allowed runs in four of his past six appearances, including two home runs. Luke Weaver, who came out of nowhere last season to end up as the Yankees’ closer, hasn’t been quite as dominant either, mostly due to a high home run rate (seven in 40⅔ innings).

That suggests it’s possible Bednar even gets a crack at the closer role. After struggling out of the gate to begin the season, he has allowed just one earned run over his past 24 appearances. Bednar’s four-seamer averages 97, but it’s not necessarily a dominant pitch, as he gets most of his swing-and-miss off his curveball and a splitter that he uses effectively against lefties. While Bednar is 17-for-17 in save chances, he does have five losses, so, umm, don’t use him in a tie game?

As a bonus, Bednar also comes with another year of team control. Granted, pitching for Pittsburgh is a lot different than pitching in New York — ask Williams about the pressures of going from a small market to pitching for the Yankees, where the fans will turn on you after that first blown save — but Bednar gives Aaron Boone another late-game, high-leverage arm, no matter what role he settles into.

Pirates grade: C-

One thing the Yankees seem to do well is develop catching prospects and the Pirates got two of them in this deal. That sort of makes sense as Henry Davis, the former No. 1 pick, just hasn’t hit and Endy Rodriguez, once a top-50-ish prospect, has barely played the past two seasons. That has left journeyman Joey Bart (also once a top prospect) as the regular catcher in 2025. Trying to find a long-term solution is a good idea, although the Pirates could use help all over the diamond.

Perez was the Yankees’ No. 10 prospect, but he’s light years from the majors, a 19-year-old hitting .209 with no home runs in low-A ball. He has drawn a lot of walks, but as you might surmise, defense is his calling card. Still, unless something drastic happens with the bat, it’s hard to envision him as anything more than backup. Flores is a more offensive-minded backstop, hitting .287/.346/.496 in Double-A with 15 home runs in 335 at-bats. The analytics department will like his max exit velocity numbers (115 mph), but he’s a fringy defender who might end up as a first baseman, where the bat might not play.

Sanchez is a 20-year-old outfielder in low-A ball with some speed and not much power yet. Given some of the other returns for elite relievers, and factoring in that Bednar comes with another year of team control, it feels like a bit of a light return for the Pirates. — Schoenfield


Yankees get:
RHP Camilo Doval

Giants get:
C/3B Jesus Rodriguez
RHP Trystan Vrieling
IF Parks Harber
LHP Carlos De La Rosa

Yankees grade: B

Duval is a pure fireballer who has excelled in a closing role at times, but his job description has wavered, as does his command. He’s one of those maddening relievers who walks himself into trouble, then tries to strike his way out of it. But the arm is the real deal, and his end-of-the-day acquisition was the final piece of a completely overhauled Yankees bullpen. Now, in some order of preference, Aaron Boone can summon David Bednar, Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, Duval, Tim Hill and Jake Bird. The Yankees didn’t land the starter they needed, but maybe they won’t miss that pitcher now.

Giants grade: C+

The highest rated of these prospects are Rodriguez and Vrieling, but there’s no one above 18th or so in the Yankees organization. Rodriguez is the top ranked, and it seems like everyone wants to get their hands on a Yankees-developed catcher for their success in developing defensive backstops. Rodriguez is more a bat-first guy, though. Vrieling grades out as a potential league-average starter, but only if he can develop at least one standout offering. It feels more like a quantity over quality package, one that could have been meatier given Doval’s two additional seasons of team control. — Doolittle


Yankees get:
RHP Jake Bird

Rockies get:
2B Roc Riggio
LHP Ben Shields

Yankees grade: C

After earlier acquiring David Bednar, the Yankees add another bullpen option with herky-jerky-slinging Bird, who is under team control through 2028. He was one of the hottest relievers in baseball through early June when he had a 1.41 ERA, but he’s been beat up of late, with a 13.20 ERA over his past 17 appearances and a diminishing strikeout rate compared with early in the season. The Rockies worked him heavily those first two months, so the Yankees will hope that maybe less frequent usage will get him back on track. He also had little track record of success heading into the season, so there’s no guarantee he’s anything more than a low-leverage relief option.

Rockies grade: C

The Rockies get a couple long shot prospects in return. Riggio was a fourth-round pick from Oklahoma State in 2023 who is currently tearing up the minors with a .567 slugging percentage, including .542 in 40 games at Double-A. He generates surprising power from the left side despite his 5-9 frame, but there’s a lot of swing-and-miss here and he’s definitely limited to second base. Also: He has the right name for a Rockies player. Shields is old for a prospect at 26 and has battled some injuries in 2025, but he is equipped with a solid-average fastball and plus curveball and could be a late bloomer. No guarantees here, but a fair return for a marginal relief pitcher. — Schoenfield


Padres get:
RHP Mason Miller
LHP JP Sears

Athletics get:
SS Leo De Vries
RHP Braden Nett
RHP Henry Baez
RHP Eduarniel Nunez

Padres grade: B

Miller is no doubt a great talent, and Sears is a consistent source of innings. For now, the Padres’ staff looks positively loaded, but the key words in this sentence are “for now” — because this move was probably as much about payroll as talent. The Padres can prove me wrong by continuing to add, but this doesn’t feel like a typical “A.J. Preller going for it” situation.

Miller has been one of baseball’s most electric closers since being shifted to the back of the Athletics’ bullpen early last year. He might be the best reliever to move at the deadline, surpassing Ryan Helsley and Jhoan Duran, though we can debate that later. But from a pure roster need, this trade accomplishes nothing for the 2025 Padres. Worse, possible deals to come involving Robert Suarez and Dylan Cease could mean Preller’s deadline machinations prove to be a short-term net negative for a team with firm grip on a wild-card slot and the talent to go deep in the playoffs.

San Diego’s bullpen has been the best in baseball all season. Based on my rankings that rate relievers on game-by-game win probability results, the Padres have the top overall relief staff and four of the top nine individual relievers, including Suarez (No. 1), Adrian Morejon (3), Jason Adam (8) and Jeremiah Estrada (9). Miller ranks 30th, but after a slump earlier in the season, he has been hot of late.

Miller and Sears are both pre-arbitration and so don’t cost anything. If the Padres kept everyone intact, the staff would be a beast come October. And it might be anyway, but the savings that would come from moving Suarez and Cease might be enough to get San Diego under the second tax threshold. Even if that doesn’t happen, Cease is in a walk year for sure, and Suarez, who can opt out, likely is as well, as he looks to cash in on his strong season. So even if Preller deals that duo, he is still coming out ahead in terms of net controllable years.

But that doesn’t mean the Padres come out ahead in either short-term or future value. For this season, Miller plus Sears is likely a lesser combination than Suarez plus Cease. That’s rough if that’s how it turns out. And longer term, to make this deal, Preller has again pillaged his minor league system, giving up a truly elite talent in Leo De Vries (preseason No. 15 by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and current No. 3 by MLB Pipeline), just to start.

If the Padres don’t unload Cease and Suarez, this grade bumps up to a B on the strength of 2025 championship probability added. It doesn’t become an A, though, because De Vries is that strong of a prospect.

Update: As suggested, the fact that the Padres did not deal either Cease or Suarez — as the rumors and tea leaves suggested they might — changes the way this trade should be considered. Basically, the Padres have gone all-in and have done so with gusto. I still think dealing De Vries to add to a position of strength holds down the grade a bit, but it looks a lot better now than it did this morning. Payroll be damned — AJ Preller is going for it. (And we’ve raised the grade from a D- to a B.)

Athletics grade: A

I love Miller, but come on. I never wanted the Athletics to pigeonhole Miller as a short reliever, but they did, and it feels like he’s fixed there. (Though conversions, such as the Mets with Clay Holmes, have shown it’s never too late). Still, to land De Vries, just 18 and already at High-A, for a reliever is a coup. Exciting power potential, plus plate discipline, a strong arm — he’s the stuff that stars are made of. Shortly after news of this deal dropped, I received a text predicting that someday both the AL MVP (De Vries) and NL MVP (James Wood) will be prospects Preller traded. It could happen. The fans in Vegas are going to love him.

Meanwhile, the A’s add three pitching prospects. Baez and Nunez both rank in the 10 to 20 range in San Diego’s system, according to analysts, but Nett was their No. 3 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, behind De Vries and talented young catcher Ethan Salas, who at last check of my text messages remains a prospect in the San Diego system, but stay tuned.

Nett has a high-end fastball (up to 99 mph, per MLB Pipeline) to headline a five-pitch arsenal. He has struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings in the minors, albeit with ugly walk rates that underscore so-so grades for command. But those walk rates have improved each season, and he’s not far off from his big league debut. It’s an impressive haul for the A’s. — Doolittle


Padres get:
C Freddy Fermin

Royals get:
RHP Ryan Bergert
RHP Stephen Kolek

Padres grade: B

The Padres had the worst catching situation in baseball, at least at the big league level. They rank 30th in WAR at that spot for the season to date and are projected to rank 30th there in the rest-of-season forecast. So upgrading the position was both necessary and hard to do. San Diego did well in nabbing the underrated Fermin, a dynamic defensive backstop with an elite ability to control the running game.

He’s no great shakes on offense but does feature good contact ability to pair with his aggressive approach. It’s enough to make him better than what San Diego was working with. Fermin is in the final season of his pre-arbitration window and should move into a mostly everyday role for Mike Shildt over the rest of the season. Assuming Fermin is still around when Ethan Salas is ready for the majors, Fermin is an ideal No. 2 backstop.

Kolek and, especially, Bergert have pitched well, helping the Padres navigate through rotation injuries. That AJ Preller dealt them on the same day he acquired JP Sears from the A’s is particularly interesting because it leaves Preller once again with a clear five-man core rotation, at least until Michael King is healthy. If this means San Diego is going to hold onto Dylan Cease, it’s all the better.

Royals grade: B+

Fermin was the most popular Freddy/Freddie in Kansas City since Patek and has played a key role over the past two seasons. His ability to produce on both sides of the plate, especially defensively, has allowed the Royals to move Salvador Perez around to first base and DH more often. But the Royals can afford to part with Fermin thanks to the deepest set of catching prospects around, a group that includes 21-year-old Carter Jensen, who has clubbed eight homers and put up a .938 OPS over his first 22 games in Triple-A.

Meanwhile, injuries to Kris Bubic, Cole Ragans and Michael Lorenzen created a short-term need in the rotation. The Royals have had excellent luck in working with acquired veteran starters — especially former Padre Seth Lugo — and will attempt to do the same for Bergert and Kolek. It’s a win-win trade for two teams trying to plug holes for the stretch run. — Doolittle


Phillies get:
OF Harrison Bader

Twins get:
OF Hendry Mendez
RHP Geremy Villoria

Phillies grade: B-

This fits into the “logical but low-impact” department. The Phillies rank 22nd in OPS from center field (Brandon Marsh has been OK, but Johan Rojas hasn’t hit at all) and 26th in OPS from left field (mostly Max Kepler). Bader can slot into either position. He played mostly left field for the Twins with Byron Buxton in center, but he is probably a defensive upgrade over Marsh, so he could push Marsh over to left field. It’s not a perfect alignment since Marsh and Kepler both bat left-handed, but Bader gives the Phillies a much-needed right-handed bat and improves the overall depth.

The issue here is that Bader is having his best offensive season since 2021 — and the Statcast metrics don’t back up those numbers, with an expected batting average of .225 and expected slugging of .385, compared to actual figures of .258 and .439. It wouldn’t be surprising to see his production dip the rest of the season, more in line with what he’s done in recent years. He has always been better in a part-time role, so while he might get the opportunity to play on a regular basis, it’s possible Bader ends up back in a platoon role, with Kepler and Marsh getting the bulk of the at-bats against righties. Still, with a limited number of right-handed bats available, Bader is a nice get for Dave Dombrowski and a clear upgrade over Rojas.

Twins grade: C

Mendez is a 21-year-old left-handed hitter, the Phillies’ No. 8 prospect. He has good contact skills and is hitting .290 at Double-A Reading, but that’s a great hitter’s park — he is hitting just .259 on the road. He is also limited to a corner outfield position and hasn’t delivered much impact, so he looks like a tweener, lacking the defensive chops for center and the power for a corner position.

Villoria is — get this — a 16-year-old right-hander. He has pitched 14 innings in the Dominican Summer League and has fanned 19 batters. He could be anything, the very definition of a lottery ticket — hey, sometimes those players turn into Fernando Tatis Jr. or Junior Caminero. Check back in a few years on him. — Schoenfield


Blue Jays get:
RHP Shane Bieber

Guardians get:
RHP Khal Stephen

Blue Jays grade: B+

Over the past two seasons, Bieber has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 20-1 in the majors. Unfortunately, that’s been compiled over just two starts, two sparkling outings early in the 2024 season. This season, Bieber has a ratio of 21-1 in the minors. Unfortunately, that’s been compiled over just four outings.

Those small sample observations do a nifty job of illustrating both the risk and the reward of this deal for the Blue Jays, who gave up real prospect talent in Stephen. When he pitches, Bieber is one of the best, an almost impossible combination of command and the ability to work in the zone without damage. But the stress his vicious arsenal puts on his elbow has kept him from putting that ability on display.

Bieber’s last rehab outing was Tuesday, when he threw 57 pitches over four innings, striking out seven and (of course) walking none. He did give up a homer to a young guy named Jake Holton, who will surely cherish the memory. Bieber has been ramping up after experiencing elbow soreness earlier this season, delaying his return. Obviously, for this deal to become official, the Jays will have to be satisfied with Bieber’s medicals.

Bieber has a team option for 2026 ($16 million with a $4 million buyout), which justifies the inclusion of Stephen in the deal. If he pitches — not an insignificant “if” — he would play a major role in aiding Toronto’s effort to get back to the World Series for the first time since the early 1990s. The Jays still need to add to their bullpen, however, among other areas.

Guardians grade: C+

As ever, the Guardians spin things forward, cashing in on the remaining value of Bieber’s contract and shedding the risk attached to his injury history. I still don’t love it, as I’m weary of franchises like this that are well run for the most part but too often seem satisfied to tread water. Cleveland always seems to be on the cusp of breaking through, only to back off. The Guardians aren’t out of this year’s chase, yet this is very much a move for the future.

That’s what holds back this grade, not the return of Stephen, a second-round pick by Toronto last year. His numbers this season in the minors are eye-popping: 9-1, 2.06 ERA over 91⅔ innings and 99 strikeouts against just 18 walks. That’s stretched out across three levels, including his Double-A debut July 20. He has average-to-better grades on four pitches and his command, but no real elite offering. He works in the low-to-mid 90s, so he’s not a burner. And he’s not Shane Bieber. — Doolittle


Mariners get:
3B Eugenio Suarez

Diamondbacks get:
1B Tyler Locklear
RHP Juan Burgos
RHP Hunter Cranton

Mariners grade: A

Just a couple of days after acquiring Josh Naylor from the Diamondbacks, the Mariners go back to their frequent trade partner and get the best power bat available at the deadline — and not just the best available, but one of the best sluggers in the game. Suarez is fifth in the majors with 36 home runs (and there’s a big gap to the next guy with 27), giving the Mariners MLB’s top home run duo now with Suarez and Cal Raleigh.

This hasn’t merely been a hot stretch for Suarez. Going back to last July when he made some adjustments (moving closer to the plate and opening up his stance), Suarez ranks fourth in the majors with 60 home runs and sixth in OPS, hitting .276/.336/.594 in 184 games.

Yes, his strikeout rate remains high at 26.8%, although that’s still lower than the 31% it was at during his first stint with the Mariners in 2022-23. There’s also some concern about his ability to catch up to good fastballs — he’s hitting .224 and slugging .408 against fastballs 95-plus mph — but the Mariners’ lineup now projects as one of the best in the game with the two trade additions (Seattle already ranks third in the majors in road OPS, although just 26th in home OPS).

Give Jerry Dipoto some credit here. He acquired Suarez and Naylor without giving up any of Seattle’s top 10 prospects — a group that includes seven or eight top-100 overall prospects — or rookie second baseman Cole Young, who was a top 100 guy before graduating to the majors earlier this season.

It will be interesting to see where Suarez plays. He’s a below-average third baseman, so he could get a lot of DH time — except when Raleigh plays there — as the Mariners could opt to keep slick-fielding rookie Ben Williamson at third base as much as possible. Something to monitor: If Suarez plays third, an infield of Suarez, J.P. Crawford and Jorge Polanco at second would feature three players with subpar range.

Still, Mariners fans should be happy here. While Dipoto has always been aggressive in making trades, ownership has never been aggressive in letting him bring on salary. That happened this time, and while the Astros hold a comfortable five-game lead in the AL West, Houston is vulnerable given all its injuries. The Mariners last made the playoffs in 2022 — but they fell one game short of the playoffs in 2024, one game short in 2023 and were still alive entering the final day in 2021. The hope now is Suarez and Naylor finally get them over that hump and have the M’s playing October baseball for just the second time since 2001.

Diamondbacks grade: C

Given Suarez’s impact power and the need of several playoff contenders at third base, this return feels a little low — especially given the arguably bigger returns for rental relievers Tyler Rogers and Ryan Helsley. But Mike Hazen saw his list of potential trade partners limited after the Yankees acquired Ryan McMahon, the Reds traded for Ke’Bryan Hayes and the Cubs and Tigers perhaps focused just on adding pitching. By waiting, the Diamondbacks might have received less than what they could have a few days ago.

That might be underselling Locklear though. A right-handed hitter who was drafted out of VCU in the second round in 2022, he fills both a need at first base with Naylor gone and is ready for the majors, hitting .316/.401/.542 at Triple-A Tacoma. He was slow out of the gate, with just three home runs at the end of May, but he’s popped 16 since then, including hitting a robust hitting .422 with nine home runs in July. Maybe he has figured something out.

He should get a run at first the rest of the season and projects as a potential league average-ish first baseman for the future. That’s not necessarily the sexiest of profiles, but the Diamondbacks get a little more certainty and proximity to the majors, which is sometimes the smarter approach rather than gambling on a player further away with more upside. The Diamondbacks also have a replacement ready for Suarez in top prospect Jordan Lawlar, who will finally get his own turn of extended playing time in the majors since he has been blocked by Geraldo Perdomo at shortstop.

Burgos could also be in the bullpen the rest of the season. He has a 0.87 ERA in the minors, allowing just 14 hits in 31 innings, and made four appearances with the Mariners. His fastball sits 96 and touches higher, although it didn’t miss a ton of bats in the minors (31 strikeouts). — Schoenfield


Red Sox get:
LHP Steven Matz

Cardinals get:
1B/3B Blaze Jordan

Red Sox grade: C+

It’s been a decade since Matz broke in as part of the vaunted Mets’ rotation in the mid-2010s, and he has made the full journey from starter to mostly bullpen work. The Cardinals have used Matz as a five-or-six-out reliever for the most part, and that kind of length will help bridge the middle innings for Boston. Unless, of course, the Red Sox want to stretch out Matz as a No. 5 starter or swing pitcher. In recent seasons, Matz’s numbers have been much better working out of the bullpen.

Matz has pretty extreme splits, and in a different era, he might have ended up as one of those onetime starters who morph into lefty specialists, a la Rick Honeycutt. But teams can’t do that anymore, and so Alex Cora will have to figure out how that profile might work when Matz faces righty fly ball hitters at Fenway Park. All in all, Matz is a versatile pitcher with still-identifiable strengths who deepens the Boston staff. He’s not really a needle mover, but it took only an unranked prospect to land him in advance of his looming free agency.

Cardinals grade: C+

This might have been a harsher grade a week ago, but St. Louis continues to be one of baseball’s coldest teams. Meanwhile, the Padres have gone on a pre-deadline spree, which makes the dwindling hopes for fringe wild-card chasers such as St. Louis, San Francisco and Miami that much fainter. Thus, it makes sense to get something for Matz.

Jordan qualifies as something. An unathletic corner infielder, the FanGraphs scouting report compares him to Ryon Healy. He has risen steadily one level at time after being drafted out of high school, and so has reached Triple-A at age 22. His strikeout rates suggest good bat-to-ball ability, but his power and walk numbers portend limited secondary skills for a player whose bat is going to have to carry him.

Still, he’s got a great name and could develop into a useful, lefty-mashing role player in the majors, the kind of performer the Cardinals have often gotten good mileage from in the past. — Doolittle


Astros get:
3B Ramon Urias

Orioles get:
RHP Twine Palmer

Astros grade: B-

The injury to Isaac Paredes left a thin and depleted Astros lineup even shorter, and with Paredes out for a while, Houston was in bad need of a stopgap. Enter Urias, a persistently league-average type performer who raises the rest-of-the-season floor for the Astros, whose offense has been ice-cold. While there were splashier names on the possible target list, Urias is a serviceable regular who didn’t cost much in terms of prospect return.

It’ll be interesting to see where Houston turns from here as it tries to piece things together with its AL West lead narrowing. The Astros need more offense and could use a rotation upgrade as well. But depending on where you look, it’s unclear how much room they have to work with under the first luxury tax threshold.

Orioles grade: B-

The Orioles have been turning the page on 2025’s disappointing roster. The bittersweet part of it for Baltimore fans is the offense has finally started to roll, but even if that keeps up, there’s probably not enough pitching left to sustain a miracle run. In the meantime, the departure of Urias opens up opportunities for both Jordan Westburg and Coby Mayo for the rest of the season, something that could be especially true if the Orioles deal Ryan O’Hearn.

Palmer is a flier. At 6-5, he was a 19th-round pick out of an Oklahoma community college last year. He has steadily added velocity over the past couple of years, and while his command is not great right now, he has missed bats and, at 20, is worth a shot. He is yet to enter anyone’s top 30 just yet, but FanGraph’s James Fegan notes that Palmer has a funky “Josh Collmenter arm slot” — basically the ball seems to appear from behind his head because of an extreme over-the-top delivery — so that’s interesting. — Doolittle


Reds get:
RHP Zack Littell

Rays get:
C Hunter Feduccia
RHP Brian Van Belle

Dodgers get:
LHP Adam Serwinowski
RHP Paul Gervase
C Ben Rortvedt

Reds grade: C-

The Reds made a pair of trades Wednesday for solid big league players who don’t really address the needs Cincinnati seemed to have as the deadline approaches. In the case of Ke’Bryan Hayes, at least we can point to a defensive upgrade and perhaps a boost to the overall run prevention. At first blush, it’s hard to see what exactly Littell upgrades for the Reds, and the fit between player and venue is a little concerning.

The Reds’ rotation has been one of the best in the majors this season, and they’ve reached that status despite the groin injury suffered by ace Hunter Greene in early June. Prospect Chase Burns has made six starts during Greene’s absence and as exciting as his stuff looks, he also looks like someone who needs a bit more seasoning. That might create a rotation need but Greene threw 50 pitches in a rehab outing at Triple-A on Tuesday and should be back in the majors soon.

I have questions.

— Are the Reds going to a six-man rotation? If so, why?

— Are they going to bump someone from the rotation for Littell? The most likely candidate would be Brady Singer, but it’s unclear that Littell is better. If he is, it is a marginal difference, especially since Littel is a pitcher leading the AL in homers allowed who is now moving to a homer haven of a ballpark.

— Are the Reds going to move someone from the rotation to boost the bullpen? Singer might work there, as would Nick Martinez. It might be better to just trade for a reliever.

Another possibility is that Cincinnati was trying to create extra depth for the rotation to use a starter in a deal of a middle-of-the-order bat. If that happens, then maybe the grade for this deal changes. It’s nothing against Littell, a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter with a 4.92 FIP. Barring related moves to come, it just seems like an odd move for the Reds, who still haven’t addressed their top need: a middle-of-the-order bat.

Rays grade: B-

The Rays are never shy about moving players on expiring deals. After being one of baseball’s hottest teams for several weeks, the Rays have fallen hard over the past month. After dropping a tough extra-innings decision to the Yankees on Wednesday, Tampa Bay finds itself in a quagmire of .500 teams trying to climb back into the AL wild-card picture.

Losing Littell probably hurts a rotation that also just lost Taj Bradley, who was demoted after his struggles dragged on a little too long. Bradley could come back, of course, but he hasn’t had time to iron anything out just yet. It matters because whatever trades the Rays make, they aren’t out of the wild-card chase.

Van Belle profiles as a depth guy who doesn’t have a track record with a lot of swing and miss. He has worked as both a starter and a reliever in the minors since signing as an undrafted free agent in 2020, the year of the truncated draft. He commands his pitches and given the Rays targeted him, there is likely something in his arsenal they feel they can sharpen.

Feduccia has been around a while in the Dodgers’ system, where he’s been stuck behind higher-profile prospects. Now 28, he has just seven big league games on his ledger. The Rays must like his defense since they value that above all else in their catchers, and he is a lefty swinger who can pair in a quasi-platoon with newly acquired Nick Fortes if Tampa Bay things Feduccia is a right-now big leaguer and more appealing than Matt Thaiss.

Both prospects have the tools, and the Rays love to work with players with tools.

Dodgers grade: B+

It’s not a splashy trade for the Dodgers but more an opportunistic one as their depth at catcher enabled them to sweeten Cincinnati’s pot for Littell. Rortvedt is a depth, defense-first backstop who can take Feduccia’s place in Oklahoma City and be ready if someone gets hurt. Gervase is a 6-foot-10 combo righty who posted huge strikeout rates in the minors. His extension on the mound, as you might guess for someone of his size, ranks in the 99th percentile, per Statcast.

The plum of the deal is the lefty Serwinowski, who landed in Kiley McDaniel’s most recent set of team top 10 prospect lists. He is just 21 and has been pitching in High-A for the Reds. His numbers are rough, but his strikeout rates are promising for a starter, so the Dodgers will plug him into their machinery and see what happens.


Cubs get:
RHP Michael Soroka

Nationals get:
OF Christian Franklin
IF Ronny Cruz

Cubs grade: C

The Chicago Cubs are looking for pitching help, with a starting pitcher the priority, but Soroka can help in any role. The Washington Nationals used him exclusively as a starter — he’s 3-8 with a 4.87 ERA in 16 starts — but with solid peripherals, including an 87-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio (despite a league-leading 14 hit batters that eat into that), plus a .224 batting average allowed that is right in line with his expected average of .218.

He has done it despite an underwhelming arsenal that relies primarily on a four-seam fastball that batters have slugged .537 against, and a slurve that is essentially a new pitch for Soroka this year. He throws it 35% of the time and batters have hit just .124 against it. He mixes in a changeup against lefties and a two-seamer, but it’s four-seamer/slurve about 80% of the time. It’s back-end starter stuff and results, and he has made it through six innings just four times. Put him in front of the Cubs’ defense, however, and that ERA could decrease, which would make him an upgrade over Ben Brown and maybe Colin Rea.

The Cubs might still look for another starter, in which case Soroka is a nice depth piece for the pen. Working in relief for the White Sox last year, his middling fastball played up and he fanned 60 batters in just 36 innings, so he could be a more viable weapon in relief.

Nationals grade: B

Most of these prospects in these trades won’t pan out, but the Nationals at least got a couple semi-interesting position players for a rental back-end starter. Franklin is in Triple-A, hitting .265/.393/.427. He’s already 25, so there’s not likely any growth here and there was zero room for him on the Cubs, but the former University of Arkansas outfielder has some on-base skills and projects as a fourth outfielder.

Cruz moved to Florida from the Dominican Republic when he was 16 and the Cubs took him in the third round of the 2024 draft. He’s hitting .270/.314/.431 in rookie ball. He’ll spend most of the season at 18 and while he has shown raw power in batting practice from a 6-foot-2 frame, it hasn’t translated to game action yet with two home runs in 174 at-bats. The bat-to-ball skills have been a little better than expected (18% strikeout rate), so he has at least made himself somebody to keep an eye on. — Schoenfield


Mets get:
RHP Ryan Helsley

Cardinals get:
IF Jesus Baez
RHP Nate Dohm
RHP Frank Elissalt

Mets grade: B

Aside from closer Edwin Diaz, the New York Mets‘ bullpen has scuffled since the beginning of June with a 4.81 ERA, so it’s no surprise that David Stearns, president of baseball operations, has been aggressive in adding some much-needed depth, acquiring Tyler Rogers earlier Wednesday from the San Francisco Giants and later two-time All-Star Helsley (after also adding lefty Gregory Soto on Friday). The two right-handers are opposites in stuff, with the side-arming Rogers the softest thrower in the majors with his 83 mph sinker while Helsley lights up the radar gun with a fastball that averages 99.3 mph.

Despite that velocity, that pitch has been hit hard in 2025, as Helsley has allowed a .406 average against it — the reason he hasn’t been quite as dominant as in his All-Star seasons of 2022 and 2024. But his slider has always been his bread-and-butter pitch, and it’s still a wipeout offering as batters have hit .092 against it with a 45% whiff rate. After a rough patch in early June when he blew three consecutive save chances, he has looked better of late, giving up only one run over his past 11 appearances. If he’s your third righty out of the pen, that’s probably a good sign.

Though the high-leverage part of the pen is righty-heavy with Diaz, Rogers, Helsley, Reed Garrett and Ryne Stanek, the Mets do have two lefties in Soto and Brooks Raley. The important thing to note is they will need all of these guys, as manager Carlos Mendoza has had one of the quickest hooks in the majors with his starters (the Mets are fifth in rotation ERA but 25th in innings pitched). That was part of the problem the past couple of months, as Mendoza rode his key guys too hard. With these additions, they’ve gone from a bullpen with a great closer and questionable depth to now one of the best pens in the majors. We’ve seen teams ride their bullpens to October success and Stearns has now put the Mets in position to do that.

Cardinals grade: A-

The St. Louis Cardinals were 8-15 in July entering Wednesday, no doubt changing their thinking from playoff contender to playoff pretender and leading to this trade. Baez is the headline prospect, No. 5 on Kiley McDaniel’s list of the top 10 prospects in a deep Mets system. The 20-year-old has played all over the infield — he’s probably headed to third base in the long run — and is hitting .244/.334/.406 in High-A.

He has plus bat speed and some high-end exit velocity readings, and despite being young for his league, he has kept his strikeout rate in check at just 16%. Though the numbers don’t necessarily jump out, his .740 OPS is well above the South Atlantic League average of .672. He’s hardly a sure thing, but the upside here makes Baez a nice return for a reliever with an expiring contract.

Dohm is the better of the two pitching prospects, a third-round pick last year out of Mississippi State who has a 2.87 ERA as a starter across two levels of A-ball. He has been handled carefully after his junior season in college was cut short because of a forearm strain, but he’s a fastball-heavy pitcher with a good slider. He was up to 99 mph as a reliever for the Bulldogs, so that could be his ultimate destination.

In the end, I think the Cardinals read the trade market correctly: The price for relievers has looked pretty high so far, and while they are only five games out of a wild-card spot, they’re trending in the wrong direction, with no real signs that they’ll snap out of it. — Schoenfield


Phillies get:
RHP Jhoan Duran

Twins get:
C Eduardo Tait
RHP Mick Abel

Phillies grade: A

Is this classic David Dombrowski, or what? The Philadelphia Phillies, despite holding one of baseball’s best records, have a saves leader in Jordan Romano who has only eight with a 6.81 ERA. They’ve mixed and matched in high-leverage spots, not only save situations, with Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering emerging as the most reliable performers. Take those two, slot them in behind Duran, and how much prettier does that postseason picture look?

Duran might end up as the most valuable reliever dealt at the deadline, trumping the New York Mets‘ deal earlier in the day for Tyler Rogers. Perhaps noticing this, the Mets almost immediately responded by also acquiring Ryan Helsley from the St. Louis Cardinals. Even if the “most valuable traded reliever” title is up for debate, Duran will definitely be in the mix.

He’s arguably a better fit for Philadelphia than Helsley would’ve been, anyway, because Duran makes about half the money in 2025 and the Phillies are paying the maximum penalty in luxury tax (110% on payroll added from here) that the CBA allows. Duran also has three more years of team control (arbitration seasons) after 2025. The Phillies have a new closer and it’s not just for the stretch run of this season.

In dealing Tait and Abel, president of baseball operations Dombrowski dealt two of his top-10 prospects (Nos. 4 and 5) but he didn’t deal Andrew Painter, whose name reportedly kept popping up on the Minnesota Twins‘ wish list. But dealing prospects is what Dombrowski does — along with winning pennants.

For the Phillies, it’s all about August, September and beyond. Their chances to navigate those crucial months just increased considerably.

Twins grade: B

Abel and Tait are excellent prospects that make the Twins’ system deeper and raise its ceiling. Abel, 23, has already played at the big league level and should help the Twins’ rotation from the outset. He’s a classic long (6-foot-5), hard-throwing righty with good extension who, so far, has been hit pretty hard on contact — but he’s just getting started.

Tait has generally been the higher ranked of the two and is one of the 10 best catching prospects. He’s also still a month shy of his 19th birthday, so unless the Twins put him on the really fast track, he’ll be climbing the ranks for a bit. His bat is exciting, with a good base of raw power and a better-than-average hit tool. Most analysts like his arm behind the plate but suggest he needs to learn the finer points of catching to stick at that crucial spot.

It’s a good return, and the value exchange is reasonable for both sides. But given the clamor that had to exist for a player with Duran’s stuff, closing experience and service-time level, it feels as if the Twins could have come out with more of a decided edge on the value standpoint. If they were going to trade Duran, they needed to be truly wowed and I’m not convinced this trade does that. Otherwise, I’d just as soon retain one of the game’s best relievers.

Clearly, the Twins’ evaluators buy into the considerable upside of Tait and the ongoing progress of Abel. If they’re right about that, this “B” can become an “A” easily enough. — Doolittle


Mets get:
RHP Tyler Rogers

Giants get:
OF Drew Gilbert
RHP Jose Butto
RHP Blade Tidwell

Mets grade: C+

Let’s get the important part out of the way first: Of the nine other identical twin combos in MLB history, none of the others was traded on the same day. So, the Rogers twins — who look so much alike as long as they aren’t on the mound — are the first, after Taylor was dealt from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh earlier in the day. That aspect of the grade gets an A+.

The rest of it I’m not so sure about, though Tyler Rogers is without a doubt a significant upgrade for the Mets’ bullpen, giving them a really nice trio at the back of the bullpen with closer Edwin Diaz and Reed Garrett. Deepening the high-leverage contingent was a must-do item for David Stearns at this deadline, so that box has been checked, though more would be nice.

All three in that trio are righties, but they have very different arm slots and pitch mixes, so they should complement each other well. In terms of performance, Rogers has been on point this season with a 1.80 ERA over 50 innings, with 38 whiffs and just four walks. On the other hand, Rogers is in a walk year, and that’s an awful lot of controllable talent to give up for two months and a postseason of a short reliever.

On the other other hand, if Rogers ends up pitching in late-October spots with a high championship-leverage index — and succeeds — Mets fans won’t sweat whatever the three young players headed for San Francisco end up doing. In the meantime, Stearns has freed up room on New York’s 40-man roster that he might need over the next 24 or so hours.

Giants grade: A-

The Giants aren’t out of the race, and while it’s easy to see dealing a key reliever as an act of white flag waving, the actuarial aspect of this deal was simply too good for Buster Posey to pass up. San Francisco’s playoff odds were at 12% in my system through Tuesday night, and while that’s not impossible, Posey is doing the right thing by (presumably) playing both sides of the fence. The Giants’ bullpen has been fantastic this season and is weakened by the loss of Rogers, but there’s still enough there to get back into the playoff chase if San Francisco snaps out of its extended slump.

Gilbert, the Mets’ No. 8 prospect, is the headliner: a good-defending outfielder with a strong enough arm that he can play anywhere in the grass. His offensive profile lacks a statistical standout, and as he will turn 25 in September, the Giants are likely going to push him along as quickly as they can.

Tidwell has good stuff, with a slider as his strong point, but his command has wavered during this development. It’s been better this year, and he made his first four big league appearances earlier this season. He has been a starter, but his fastball-slider combo gives him the flexibility to fill a key bullpen role if that’s the direction the Giants want to go.

Butto has the most big league experience of the three. He had been a combo-type hurler in the majors for the Mets until working exclusively in a medium-leverage role this season. He’ll likely fill Rogers’ role in the San Francisco bullpen for now, but with multiple controllable seasons left on his service-time clock, there’s a lot the Giants can do with him.

Rogers was terrific, but this haul was too good for Posey to refuse. — Doolittle


Yankees get:
OF Austin Slater

White Sox get:
RHP Gage Ziehl

Yankees grade: C+

The Yankees need outfield help. Slater is an outfielder, a veteran, with an easy-to-peg if limited set of strengths. The offense is short right now with Aaron Judge on the injured list, and while Slater is a Lilliputian to Judge’s Gulliver, he plays a decent corner outfield and hits lefty pitchers at an above-average rate, owning a .798 career OPS against southpaws and .859 this season. The recent pickup of Amed Rosario now looks like one that gives fellow recent pickup Ryan McMahon a platoon partner at third base, so Slater should have a steady role on the grass until Judge returns, and perhaps after as a platoon partner for Trent Grisham, with Judge playing some in center.

Eventually, we’ll find out whether losing Ziehl was too steep of a price to pay for adding a role player for two months and the postseason, but the Yankees are putting together a deep and balanced bench — provided their cornerstone players are healthy when October arrives. At the very least, Slater’s addition reduces the chances of the Yankees asking Giancarlo Stanton to figure out where his outfield glove has been stored.

White Sox grade: B

Ziehl hails from upstate New York, not far from the southern shore of Lake Ontario, and if he emerges as a big league pitcher, it looks as if he’ll do so just off the western shore of Lake Michigan now that he’s Chris Getz’s latest prospect acquisition for Chicago.

According to the prospect gurus, Ziehl relies on decent velocity with plus command and a plus sweeper-style slider as the foundation of his arsenal. A standout on the excellent Miami Hurricanes’ staff, Ziehl prospered in high-level competition as a collegian. This year marks his first taste of professional game action, and the results have been just so-so.

But the White Sox had very little use for Slater’s services except for this precise purpose: to add depth to the Chicago farm system via a trade deadline deal. Given Slater’s lack of everyday-player utility, this seems like a solid return. — Doolittle


Reds get:
3B Ke’Bryan Hayes

Pirates get:
SS Sammy Stafura
LHP Taylor Rogers

Reds grade: C-

The Reds have been one of the 57 teams mentioned as having interest in one-time Cincinnati third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who certainly would have been a more direct response to the Reds’ acute need for a middle-of-the-order bat. Hayes, whose sub-.300 slugging percentage stirs fond memories of 1970s-era shortstops, is not that.

He is, however, a Platinum Glove-level defender at the hot corner and, as they say, a run saved is as good as a run scored. Cincinnati has been playing Noelvi Marte at third base recently, and while Marte is having his best season at the plate, his defensive marks have been consistently below average and he has the positional versatility to rove around the field, as do most of the Reds’ other corner players.

Hayes doesn’t move around the field, but you don’t want him to. His value is as a defensive vacuum on the left side of the infield, one who will team with Elly De La Cruz to form one of the more dynamic infield duos around. The four years and $30 million Hayes has left on the extension he signed early in his career should be team-friendly, but he’s got to hit more than he has the past two campaigns amid ongoing back issues. For what it’s worth, Great American Ballpark is the only park other than PNC in which he’s hit more than two career homers. If the bat doesn’t pick up though, the Reds have likely acquired a long-term underwater contract.

Getting the Pirates to take on the remainder of Rogers’ expiring deal (the prorated remainder of his $12 million salary) likely sweetened the prospect return for Pittsburgh, while possibly freeing up the Reds’ payroll for further pursuits of that needed power bat.

Pirates grade: B

It sure seemed like the Pirates had developed their long-term third baseman when Hayes arrived and signed that extension, but the collapse of his bat ended that notion. Some teams might be able to carry a great-defending, poor-hitting corner player, but the Pirates need offense wherever they can get it. Getting out of their commitment to Hayes at least gives them a chance to find a more productive solution at his position.

Stafura, who just missed Cincinnati’s top 10 in Kiley McDaniel’s most recent prospect rankings could well be that guy. Or he might be the Pirates’ shortstop of the future, giving Pittsburgh the option of deploying elite prospect Konnor Griffin in center field.

Stafura is an athletic infielder with plus speed and an above-average defensive profile, good enough to stick at short according to most prospect analysts. His offensive profile is a little murky. He has exceptional plate discipline, but the question is whether he’ll make enough consistent contact in the majors to maintain the high OBPs he’s posted as a professional. Either way, he deepens Pittsburgh’s prospect base. — Doolittle


Brewers get:
C Danny Jansen (from Rays)

Rays get:
C Nick Fortes (from Marlins)
IF Jadher Areinamo (from Brewers)

Marlins get:
OF Matthew Etzel (from Rays)

Brewers grade: B

This might seem like a bizarre trade for the Brewers because they already have a solid catcher in William Contreras, but it looks like they are trying to cover all of their bases as they look toward a potential deep run in October. A question that a playoff-caliber team should consider: What happens if our starting catcher gets injured?

That’s pertinent for the Brewers because Contreras has played through a broken finger on his glove hand that he suffered in early May. That perhaps explains his lower offensive production this year, and he has struggled since the beginning of June, hitting just .229 with one home run in 44 games.

Jansen provides an upgrade over Eric Haase in the Brewers’ backup slot and could take some playing time from Contreras, who has started 87 of the Brewers’ 105 games. Jansen is a low-average hitter who can occasionally homer, hitting .204/.314/.389 with 11 home runs. It’s not a major move on paper, but it’s a smart one from one of the best front offices in the game.

Rays grade: C+

The Rays had big problems during the past couple of seasons with their catcher production, which led them to sign Jansen in the offseason to a one-year deal worth $8 million with a $12 million mutual option. The change from Jansen to Fortes makes sense from the Rays’ perspective: They were unlikely to pick up their half of that 2026 option, so with Fortes under team control through 2028, they at least have a semi-solution for the foreseeable future.

The only issue is that Fortes struggles at the plate, with a career line of .225/.277/.344, and he’s even worse if you look at his numbers since 2023. He is a good defensive catcher, ranking high in Statcast’s framing runs saved despite his limited playing time, so he at least provides a replacement.

Areinamo, who was traded for Jansen, was Milwaukee’s No. 24 prospect, via MLB.com. He’s a 21-year-old who has played all three infield positions at High-A, hitting .297/.355/.463 with 11 home runs. He’s undersized at 5-foot-8 with a strange bat whip as the pitcher delivers the pitch, but he has generated excellent contact rates and has performed in the low minors. He looks like a good sleeper prospect — and we know the Rays have thrived on acquiring those kinds of players (although they’ve made some mistakes as well, like trading Cristopher Sanchez to the Phillies).

Marlins grade: C

The Marlins deal from an organizational strength in trading Fortes. Rookies Agustin Ramirez and Liam Hicks have emerged as a solid backstop duo (with Ramirez getting a lot of DH time), plus they also have Joe Mack, one of their top prospects, in Triple-A.

Etzel was the Rays’ No. 28 prospect, via MLB.com, but the 23-year-old lefty-hitting outfielder has struggled in Double-A, hitting .230/.360/.347 with five home runs in 196 at-bats. He has been out since June 20 because of an injury. He was originally acquired last season from the Baltimore Orioles in the Zach Eflin trade. Etzel has plus speed and takes some walks, but he has played only the corner outfield in Double-A, so he looks like a tweener — not enough power for a corner position, not enough defense for center.

More proof that poor-hitting catchers have limited trade value, even if they’re excellent defensive catchers. — Schoenfield


Tigers get:
RHP Chris Paddack
RHP Randy Dobnak

Twins get:
C Enrique Jimenez

Tigers grade: D

The Detroit Tigers have been stumbling of late, going 2-12 since July 9 (and 21-25 since June 3 if you want to go back a bit further) — and it hasn’t been just a little stumble. They’ve been outscored 93-to-43 in this 14-game stretch, with the starting rotation posting a 5.59 ERA — and that’s including Tarik Skubal‘s numbers (although he did have one mediocre start in there).

The bullpen has been even worse, with a 7.93 ERA in this stretch and 5.03 since the beginning of June. Though it makes sense for the Tigers to acquire some pitching help, Paddack hardly projects as anything more than someone who might chew up a few extra innings beyond what they’ve been getting from their current back-end starters. He’s 3-9 with a 4.95 ERA for the Minnesota Twins, including a 5.40 ERA on the road, where his home run rate has spiked.

Paddack does throw strikes and has pitched at least five innings in 17 of 21 starts this season, but batters are hitting .266 with a .753 OPS off him. He’s a below-average starter, but probably a minor upgrade over Keider Montero, who has allowed 10 runs in 8⅓ innings over his past two starts and was sent down to the minors, or rookie Troy Melton, who made his first career start last week and got hammered by the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. Meanwhile, Dobnak is just a salary dump for the Twins — he wasn’t even on their 40-man roster and has a 7.12 ERA in Triple-A.

This is just one move for the Tigers. It’s not game changer. Look for them to add some bullpen help over the next few days.

Twins grade: C

Though this mostly seems like the Twins dumping a couple of million in salary between Paddack and Dobnak — don’t ever change, Twins — Jimenez is at least a real prospect, a 19-year-old catcher hitting .250/.339/.440 in the Florida Complex League. He was Detroit’s top international signing in 2023, out of Venezuela, and was ranked No. 14 on MLB.com’s prospect list for the Tigers and No. 17 on Baseball America’s. Jimenez is a switch-hitter, which is always fun to see from a catcher, but it’s also his second year in the FCL and his numbers have shown just minor improvement from 2024. Check back in three years. — Schoenfield


Yankees get:
3B Ryan McMahon

Rockies get:
LHP Griffin Herring
RHP Josh Grosz

Yankees grade: B

For Yankees fans who wanted Eugenio Suarez to fill the hole at third base, this looks like a big letdown considering McMahon is hitting .217/.314/.403 with 16 home runs — compared to Suarez’s 36 — and ranking second in the majors in strikeouts while playing half of his games at Coors Field. Away from Colorado, he has hit just .189 with five home runs. Consider the positives, however:

  • He has signed through 2027, so he is a solution at third base for the next two years as well (he’ll make $16 million each of the next two seasons).

  • He is an excellent defender, ranking in the 91st percentile in Statcast’s outs above average.

  • He ranks in the 86th percentile in walk rate.

  • He ranks in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity and 87th percentile in hard-hit rate.

  • He might get the “leaving Coors Field” boost, where his road numbers adjust to playing his home games in a more normal environment.

That last one is important. The Yankees have experience with this: DJ LeMahieu hit .327 and .364 in his first two seasons with the Yankees after leaving the Rockies. Yes, the strikeouts are the big concern here with McMahon, and while he is not having his best season, at the minimum, he upgrades the defense and gives the Yankees a little more power. I suspect McMahon won’t hit .189 with the Yankees and could prove to be a sneaky good addition.

Rockies grade: C

While McMahon’s name had been on the rumor mill, it’s still a mild surprise the Rockies actually traded him. First, they rarely make trades of any sort, especially significant ones, and they especially rarely trade their homegrown players such as McMahon. So, at least good for them for doing something that probably makes sense.

Did they get much in return? Herring was a sixth-round pick last year from LSU, where he pitched in relief. The Yankees turned him into a starter, and Herring has mowed through two levels of Single-A with a 1.71 ERA and 10.3 K’s per nine. Primarily a fastball/sweeper guy at LSU, his changeup has proven a big weapon as right-handed batters are hitting just .159 against him.

A college pitcher from a high-profile program such as LSU dominating the low minors usually doesn’t tell us much, except in this case, Herring’s lack of experience and successful transition to a bigger workload is a huge positive. Herring didn’t crack Kiley McDaniel’s top 10 Yankees prospects in his July update but did make MLB.com’s list at No. 8.

Grosz has spent the entire 2025 season at high A, posting a 4.14 ERA with 94 strikeouts in 85 innings and holding batters to a .211 average. He has a high-spin fastball that sits in the mid-90s, but the secondary stuff needs improvement, and the command is a tick below average (35 walks).

The biggest issue is these are two pitchers who haven’t performed above Single-A and don’t necessarily have elite stuff. The stat lines look good, but the next step to Double-A will be a big test to see how Herring’s fastball plays against better competition and whether Grosz can improve his command. — Schoenfield


Mets get:
LHP Gregory Soto

Orioles get:
RHP Wellington Aracena, RHP Cameron Foster

Mets grade: C+

Through the end of May, the Mets’ bullpen ranked second in the majors with a 2.78 ERA. Since June 1, however, the Mets rank 27th with a 5.02 ERA, so Soto is a logical addition — and probably won’t be the last reliever the Mets acquire. Part of the problem is Mets’ starters haven’t pitched deep into games and manager Carlos Mendoza ran his top relievers except closer Edwin Diaz into the ground.

The Mets have also been without a reliable lefty with offseason signing A.J. Minter out for the year. They did just activate Brooks Raley, but Soto gives them another lefty option, no doubt thinking ahead to potential playoff matchups against the Phillies (Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber), Dodgers (Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman) or Cubs (Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong). They’re going to need more than one lefty reliever.

Is Soto a good option though? He still has premium stuff with a 97 mph fastball and wipeout slider, and left-handed batters are hitting just .138 against him in 2025 (although two of the eight hits have been home runs). As always, however, throwing strikes is often an issue (4.5 walks per nine), and he has a large platoon split (right-handed batters have a .371 OBP against him). Soto is a good left-on-left on matchup, but his control means he isn’t always the most trustworthy, and the Orioles weren’t using him in a lot of high-leverage situations of late.

Orioles grade: B-

Let the exodus begin. With as many as 11 more potential free agents, the Orioles are going to be busy over the next week. A lot of those trades will look like this one: a couple of second-tier type prospects. Aracena (No. 19 on MLB.com’s Mets list, No. 28 on Baseball America) is a 6-foot-3, 20-year-old right-hander with a 2.38 ERA in low-A, including 84 strikeouts in 64 innings, featuring a fastball in the upper 90s that has topped out at 101. That’s the good news. The “Why did the Mets trade him?” news is that he has walked 35 batters. He has a cutter and a slider, but the profile here suggests he might end up as a reliever. Still, a decent return for a non-elite reliever such as Soto.

Foster is a 26-year-old reliever who crushed Double-A in repeating the level this season (1.01 ERA), although he struggled in his first two outings after a recent promotion to Triple-A (seven runs in 3.2 innings). Given all the trades the Orioles will make, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him pop up in the big league bullpen at some point this season. — Schoenfield


Mariners get:
1B Josh Naylor

Diamondbacks get:
LHP Brandyn Garcia
RHP Ashton Izzi

Mariners grade: B+

This is the first significant trade heading into the final week before the deadline, and it’s interesting in part because it signifies the Diamondbacks are going to be dealing — Naylor could be the first of a group that might include Eugenio Suarez, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, potentially spicing up the deadline with some intriguing names.

While third base was the Mariners’ biggest offensive need, Naylor gives them a well-rounded hitter who has been one of the top contact hitters in the majors this season, hitting .292/.360/.447 with 11 home runs and the 13th-lowest strikeout rate among qualified hitters. Naylor has done most of his damage against right-handed pitchers, hitting .310/.390/.493 with nine of his 11 home runs. That’s an upgrade over incumbent Luke Raley, who has hit .248/.370/.397 against right-handers but is just 1-for-20 against southpaws, with light-hitting Donovan Solano serving as his platoon partner.

Naylor can play every day and fits somewhere in the middle of the lineup, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the majors in strikeout rate, so his contact ability will be a nice addition. It also improves Seattle’s bench as Raley can now fill in at right field (although Dominic Canzone has been hitting well) or DH, with Jorge Polanco perhaps getting some time at second base over Cole Young. Rookie third baseman Ben Williamson is an excellent defender but has just one home run in 256 at-bats. While Polanco has plenty of experience at third in his career, he hasn’t started there since April 4 as a shoulder issue has limited his throwing.

In other words: The Mariners could still seek an upgrade at third base. The Diamondbacks might wait until July 31 to deal Suarez, hoping that one of the several teams that need a third baseman will give in with a nice package of prospects. The Mariners didn’t give up any of their top 10 prospects here, so here’s guessing that Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and Arizona general manager Mike Hazen aren’t done exchanging text messages.

Diamondbacks grade: B

While Garcia and Izzi didn’t rank in Kiley McDaniel’s top 10 Mariners prospects, that’s not necessarily a knock on their potential: Seattle’s top 10 is loaded with top-100 overall prospects. Garcia was ranked No. 13 on MLB.com’s team list and Izzi No. 16.

Drafted in the 11th round out of Texas A&M in 2023, Garcia was a surprising success story as a starter in 2024, but the Mariners moved him to the bullpen this season, and he just made his MLB debut after posting a 3.51 ERA across Double-A and Triple-A with 42 strikeouts in 33⅔ innings. He throws a mid-90s sinker along with a sweeper and cutter, and held lefties to a .235 average and .255 slugging percentage. He can probably go straight to Arizona’s bullpen right now, with the idea that the Diamondbacks try him as a starter in 2026. He’s a nice sleeper prospect in a trade like this, with at least a floor as a reliever and maybe some upside as a back-end starter.

Izzi is a 21-year-old righty with a mid-90s fastball who was a fourth-round pick out of high school in 2022, but he has struggled at high-A Everett with a 5.51 ERA across 12 starts. His fastball/sweeper combo could eventually work as a reliever, although right-handed batters have hit him as hard as lefties. He’s a development prospect.

Nothing too flashy here, but there wasn’t going to be a huge market for Naylor, and he was competing with the likes of Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna in the 1B/DH class, so Arizona probably figured it had to strike first with Naylor, giving the team more time to discuss deals for their other pending free agents. — Schoenfield

Continue Reading

Sports

CFP 2025: 32 teams can make the College Football Playoff

Published

on

By

CFP 2025: 32 teams can make the College Football Playoff

The 12-team College Football Playoff will again include the five highest-ranked conference champions — a guarantee that expands the pool of candidates to include any team that has a shot at winning its conference.

According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, there are 32 teams — the most in the CFP era — with at least a 10% chance of reaching the playoff. They come from the Power 4 conferences, the American and the Mountain West, but how many of them can actually win the national title?

“Four or five,” Texas A&M coach Mike Elko said.

“I’d say there’s eight,” Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer said.

This list will shrink by November, but below it starts with 32 teams ranked in order of their percentage chance to make the playoff. You’ll also see their chance to win the national title, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

The CFP selection committee doesn’t always agree with the computers, though. Here’s a look at how they will view the 32 teams with at least a 10% chance to make the playoff.

Last year: 13-3, CFP semifinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +550
CFP ranking history: 28 appearances, highest at No. 2

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 83.9% | Win national title: 24.1%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The Longhorns should be in — either as the SEC champ, or through an at-large bid. But ESPN’s FPI projects Texas will win every game, and that’s not going to happen with a first-time starting quarterback — no matter what his last name is. There’s an extraordinary amount of pressure on Arch Manning, and while he could lead the Longhorns to the SEC championship, he’s going to need some margin for error along the way. Texas will have four new starting offensive linemen, and it is replacing its top three pass catchers from last season. The Longhorns are a playoff team — but there are too many questions heading into the season opener against Ohio State to declare them a preseason No. 1.

Toughest test: Nov. 15 at Georgia. Yes, the season opener at Ohio State might be the biggest game of the year, but there will be plenty of time to make up for a loss. History tells us it’s better to lose early than late (See: Notre Dame vs. NIU). The Longhorns’ game at Georgia, though, comes at the most critical point in the season, when the conference standings and a guaranteed first-round CFP bye are within reach.

What the committee will like: Road wins. Texas has ample opportunities to impress the group with tough road wins at Ohio State, Georgia and Florida, plus its annual neutral-site game against rival Oklahoma. That’s the kind of lineup that will help separate the Longhorns from otherwise comparable teams.

What the committee won’t like: A weak September. If Texas loses at Ohio State, there won’t be anything to separate the Longhorns as a true contender heading into October. Texas would likely have a 3-1 September start in that scenario with home wins against San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston. Style points will matter, but only so much against unranked, overmatched non-power opponents. That could come back to haunt it in the committee meeting room as the rankings play out — especially if some SEC opponents such as Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Arkansas don’t finish as CFP top 25 teams.


Last year: 11-3, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +800
CFP ranking history: 54 appearances, highest at No. 1 (15 times)

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 78.6% | Win national title: 17.9%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Georgia is a playoff team that’s a coin flip with Texas to win the SEC. Like Texas, the Bulldogs will have a new starting quarterback and four new offensive linemen. If Georgia is going to repeat as SEC champs and advance deeper into the CFP bracket, though, its receivers have to be more dependable (last season Georgia led Power 4 conference teams in dropped passes) and the Bulldogs need to create more holes in the running game — especially to help out quarterback Gunner Stockton.

Toughest test: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. This is the only game on Georgia’s schedule that ESPN’s FPI gives the Bulldogs less than a 50% chance to win (49.5%).

What the committee will like: A September to remember. If Georgia can start 4-0 with wins against Tennessee and Alabama, the selection committee will remember those through Selection Day. It could also help Georgia earn a top-four seed even if the Bulldogs finish with one loss to Texas and don’t win the SEC. This assumes the Vols and Bama will finish as CFP top 25 opponents.

What the committee won’t like: Road upsets. Winning at Tennessee, Auburn and Mississippi State won’t be easy, but if Georgia is a true national title contender, it shouldn’t have a losing road record. The neutral-site game against rival Florida is also a chance to impress the committee away from Athens, but the reality is Georgia has only those three true road games — and should be the favorite on every trip. And three of Georgia’s home games are against non-power opponents Marshall, FCS team Austin Peay and Charlotte.


Last year: 14-2, CFP champion
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +550
CFP ranking history: 66 appearances, highest at No. 1 (five times)

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 70.6% | Win national title: 10.8%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Somewhat agree. The defending national champs are again a playoff-caliber team, but before handing them a first-round bye, consider how difficult Ohio State’s schedule is. In addition to the home season opener against Texas, Ohio State has road trips to Washington, Illinois, Wisconsin and rival Michigan — none of which are gimmes. The back-to-back October trips to Illinois and Wisconsin will be trickier than they appear on paper, and Washington should be a better team this fall in the second season under coach Jedd Fisch. ESPN analytics projects Ohio State’s lone regular-season loss will be at home in the season opener against Texas. But Penn State might have something to say about that on Nov. 1 in Columbus.

Toughest test: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. The Buckeyes will have a bye week to prepare for the game that will help determine a spot in the Big Ten championship. While the Big Ten winner will be guaranteed a spot in the playoff, it’s possible the runner-up could join the league champ in the selection committee’s top four and also get a first-round bye as a top-four seed. If Ohio State loses to Texas and Penn State, though — both at home — a bye would be in jeopardy.

What the committee will like: A November to remember. The committee’s first ranking will be released on Nov. 4 — right after Ohio State starts the month against Penn State. If the Buckeyes go 5-0 in November with two wins against CFP top 25 teams, it will help Ohio State compensate for a possible second loss. Ohio State could make a case as the committee’s top two-loss team if the Buckeyes lose to Texas and stumble elsewhere on the road. A close loss to a top 25 Illinois team might not be as bad as it sounds right now — as long as they recover in November.

What the committee won’t like: A second loss to an unranked opponent. It’s not that a team can’t overcome a bad loss, but it could mean the difference between a first-round bye and having to win four straight games to win the national title (again). The committee factors in everything — including where the game was played and how it was won or lost — but the caliber of opponent still matters. If Ohio State were to lose at Washington or Wisconsin, and neither of those teams finish in the CFP top 25, the committee could rank the Buckeyes behind another two-loss contender that suffered a better, close loss. Ohio State learned this last season when it sank four spots following its loss to unranked Michigan.


Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +1100
CFP ranking history: 66 appearances, highest at No. 1 (24 times)

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 66.2% | Win national title: 10.8%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The Tide will be better in Kalen DeBoer’s second season, but after a four-loss finish last fall, Alabama is going to have to play its way back into top-four contention. With a new starting quarterback and depth questions on the defensive line, Alabama needs to survive September before the playoff predictions begin.

Toughest test: Sept. 27 at Georgia. If DeBoer is going to get the Tide back to the top of the SEC — and back into the playoff — this would be the game to do it.

What the committee will like: The No. 10 schedule in the country. Alabama was the committee’s top three-loss team last season and ranked No. 11 on Selection Day — that was with bad losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. The committee will likely give the Tide some margin for error again considering an SEC lineup that includes trips to Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina, plus home games against Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. And two of the first three nonconference opponents are against Power 5 teams Florida State and Wisconsin. At worst, Alabama should be 3-1 with a loss to Georgia heading into the heart of SEC play.

What the committee won’t like: Four losses? Alabama’s No. 11 ranking last season was evidence to the contrary of SEC commissioner Greg Sankey’s concerns about the committee not valuing the difficulty of playing in the SEC. Had ACC champion Clemson not bumped the Tide out of the playoff, Alabama would have slid into the field with two of the worst losses of the season. For Alabama to be excluded from the playoff again, it likely would have to land in that unlucky No. 11 or No. 12 spot and get bumped — or it would have to fail the eye test along the way.


Last year: 13-3, CFP semifinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +600
CFP ranking history: 42 appearances, highest at No. 3

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 63.8% | Win national title: 7%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. There’s no excuse for Penn State not to reach the playoff. Penn State can make a case for No. 1 this preseason because it has one thing no other team ranked above it has: a starting quarterback with playoff experience. The Nittany Lions might also have the best running back tandem in the country in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Plus, defensively, they hired one of the nation’s best coordinators in Jim Knowles, who left Ohio State to take the job. Coach James Franklin faces a burden of proof when it comes to beating the Buckeyes and elite opponents, but this is a roster talented enough to do it.

Toughest test: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. Penn State hasn’t won in Columbus in its past six tries. This might be the only ranked opponent the Nittany Lions face in November, when the selection committee is paying the closest attention. Penn State will have home-field advantage against Oregon on Sept. 27.

What the committee will like: A winning record against Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana. Penn State’s résumé is only as strong as its opponents’, and if the Nittany Lions fail to win at Ohio State (again), they might only have two wins against CFP top 25 teams — Oregon and Indiana (maybe?) — and both are home games. Penn State avoids Illinois and Michigan, which should be two of the league’s better teams this fall, so it needs to take advantage of the few opportunities it has against elite competition.

What the committee won’t like: A weak nonconference schedule. Wins against Nevada, FIU and Villanova aren’t going to help Penn State earn a first-round bye if the Nittany Lions are looking to earn a top-four seed as the Big Ten runner-up. If Penn State finishes as a two-loss team with no Big Ten title, it can still get into the playoff, but that September lineup will be scrutinized on Selection Day.


Last year: 13-1, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +1200
CFP ranking history: 44 appearances, highest at No. 1 (six times)

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 57.5% | Win national title: 4.3%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is still a talented playoff team, albeit with a vastly different composition than last season’s 13-1 group. Oregon ranks 107th in returning offensive production, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, but coach Dan Lanning lured in the program’s best freshman class. Nonconference games against rival Oregon State and Oklahoma State won’t be easy, but this is a manageable schedule that could land the Ducks back in the Big Ten title game.

Toughest test: Sept. 27 at Penn State. This is the only game that ESPN’s FPI gives Oregon less than a 50% chance to win. It’s a rematch of the 2024 Big Ten title game, but it’s in Happy Valley — at night. The head-to-head result will impact the committee’s ranking each week.

What the committee will like: Style points. If Oregon doesn’t win the Big Ten, it might be tough to earn a bye if the Ducks don’t have enough wins against top 25 opponents — unless they look like a dominant one- or two-loss team. It depends on what happens elsewhere. Last year, both Oregon and Penn State finished in the selection committee’s top four. This year, PSU has a chance to beat Ohio State during the regular season and Oregon does not. Instead, the Ducks will have to assert themselves against the likes of Indiana and Iowa.

What the committee won’t like: Upsets. It’s not that they can’t be overcome, but there’s not a lot of wiggle room in a schedule that might only include one or two CFP top 25 teams on Selection Day (Penn State, Indiana?). And this schedule has trap games all over it, including trips to Iowa and Washington.


Last year: 10-4, CFP 1st round
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +900
CFP ranking history: 60 appearances, highest at No. 1 (eight times)

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 47.3% | Win national title: 2.8%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Clemson was overrated heading into the 2024 season. Now it’s underrated. The Tigers’ offense is loaded, starting with much-improved quarterback Cade Klubnik and a deep receiver corps. Klubnik also has a veteran offensive line to work with, and the defensive line should be one of the best in the country. Clemson has a chance to not only win the ACC, but return to the top of the sport.

Toughest test: Nov. 29 at South Carolina. A true road game against a ranked in-state SEC rival tops everything else on the schedule as far as difficulty. ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson a slim 51.9% chance of winning.

What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the SEC. Head-to-head wins are one of several tiebreakers the committee uses, and a season-opening win against LSU and a win at South Carolina to end the regular season would separate Clemson from other elite contenders — including in the SEC. If by chance one of those teams wins the SEC, there might not be a bigger trump card in the committee meeting room.

What the committee won’t like: No wins against ranked ACC teams. If Clemson doesn’t go 2-0 against the SEC, this could be an issue. Clemson doesn’t face Miami during the regular season, but SMU and Louisville could be top 25 opponents — and maybe Syracuse or Georgia Tech sneak in. Nobody knows what to expect from the Bill Belichick experiment at North Carolina. If Clemson is going to make a deep run into the playoff, though, or have a chance at a bye, it shouldn’t lose to Louisville again. The Tigers were fortunate to beat SMU in last year’s ACC title game, and they shouldn’t lose to the Mustangs at home this year. If Clemson returns to the ACC championship game and loses to Miami, it can still reach the playoff as an at-large team, but a weak ACC schedule would be glaring in the committee meeting room.


Last year: 10-3
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +4000
CFP ranking history: 17 appearances, highest at No. 2

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 46.3% | Win national title: 2.7%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Miami has more to prove before it is taken seriously as a playoff contender — like winning the ACC. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes more than a 50% chance to win each game, but the season opener at home against Notre Dame will be the first indicator of Miami’s playoff potential. Miami has continued to find ways to flop in games it should win — and that was with Cam Ward, the eventual first overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft. If the Canes are going to win a title of any kind this fall, the defense will have to do its part and help an offense now led by former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck. The selection committee noticed the porous defense last season, and that was a critical component that kept them out of the playoff.

Toughest test: Nov. 1 at SMU. Yes, the Notre Dame game will be huge as far as the national spotlight and playoff implications, but the Canes at least have home-field advantage. Miami doesn’t leave its home state until it goes to SMU. Traveling to Texas for a conference game to face the ACC runners-up right before the first CFP ranking is released is another glaring opportunity for the Canes to stumble.

What the committee will like: An unofficial state championship. If Miami isn’t going to leave its own state until November, it would help the Canes to own it. Miami’s only road trip before November is on Oct. 4 at Florida State. The Canes will have home-field advantage against three of their toughest opponents: Notre Dame, Florida and Louisville. A winning record against them will boost Miami’s chances in the committee meeting room. If the Canes can go 3-0 against their in-state opponents, including South Florida (Sept. 13) and Florida (Sept. 20), it would help ease the blow of a close home loss to Notre Dame — or Louisville. Two home losses before heading to SMU, though, would put Miami’s playoff hopes on the brink.

What the committee won’t like: Late road losses. Miami ends the season with back-to-back road trips to Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh — two opponents capable of playing spoiler. If both teams are outside the committee’s top 25, a loss to one or both could come back to haunt the Canes if they don’t win the ACC and are jockeying for an at-large bid.


Last year: 14-2, CFP championship game
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +1100
CFP ranking history: 55 appearances, highest at No. 2 (four times)

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 45.6% | Win national title: 2.7%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Notre Dame has one of the best running back tandems in the country with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, but the Irish will have a new starting quarterback for the sixth straight season. With two SEC opponents, a regular-season rivalry game against USC, a trip to Miami, and a home game against a Group of 5 CFP contender in Boise State, this is a schedule tailor-made to impress the committee — or knock the Irish out.

Toughest test: Aug. 31 at Miami. ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 56.2% chance to win — the only opponent it doesn’t predict Notre Dame to beat. The Canes will have the edge in quarterback experience with Beck, but both teams have questions in their secondary. If Notre Dame beats the eventual ACC champs, a head-to-head win in the season opener would increase in value on Selection Day.

What the committee will like: Two wins against conference champs. If Miami and Boise State both win their leagues, Notre Dame could have wins against the ACC and Mountain West Conference champs, respectively. In theory, the Irish could have even more if Navy wins the American Athletic Conference, but for now, Miami and Boise State are the most likely options. That’s a significant accomplishment for the Irish, who as an independent can’t win a conference title, and it gives the committee an added comparison point — not to mention a head-to-head tiebreaker over teams that could be in the running for a first-round bye.

What the committee won’t like: Another bad loss. Last year’s home loss to Northern Illinois stuck with some committee members through the entire season, and while the Irish were able to ultimately overcome it, there was no margin for error. In each of the past three seasons, Notre Dame has dropped a game it shouldn’t have (2022 Marshall, 2023 Louisville, 2024 Northern Illinois). With no conference championship to guarantee Notre Dame a spot in the field, its only path is an at-large bid, and losing to Purdue or Stanford isn’t the way to earn one.


Last year: 10-3, CFP first round
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +6000
CFP ranking history: 24 appearances, highest at No. 1

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 38.5% | Win national title: 2.3%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. This is too high for the Vols, who return just 39% of their offense from last season’s playoff team (110th in the FBS). With former quarterback Nico Iamaleava at UCLA, and running back Dylan Sampson and the top three receivers from last season also gone, this team’s entire offensive identity is a question mark. The season opener against Syracuse in Atlanta is hardly a gimme to start the nation’s 15th-most difficult schedule.

Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Alabama. Yes, the Sept. 13 game against Georgia is probably a tougher opponent, but going to Tuscaloosa to face Bama could mean a second loss before November. And that’s with Oklahoma and a trip to the Swamp still looming. ESPN’s FPI gives Alabama a 71.9% chance to win.

What the committee will like: Avoid going 0-2 against Bama and Georgia. This is the kind of schedule that helped Alabama finish as the committee’s top three-loss team last fall. The Tide had wins against Georgia, LSU and South Carolina, and that helped them stay in contention even with bad losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. If Tennessee can do the same, and earn two or three statement wins, it might be able to earn some forgiveness in the committee room for multiple slip-ups elsewhere.

What the committee won’t like: Unconvincing wins. While there are plenty of opportunities for Tennessee to impress the committee against elite competition, the Vols need to look the part of a playoff team against the likes of Syracuse, East Tennessee State, UAB, Mississippi State and New Mexico State. Losses to highly ranked teams can be forgiven, but if this new-look Tennessee offense doesn’t impress the committee on film against teams it should beat, the Vols could struggle to earn one of those at-large bids.


Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +4000
CFP ranking history: 24 appearances, highest at No. 4

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 34.3% | Win national title: 2.3%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. This is a lot of faith in a team that lost four of its final five games and needed a defensive overhaul. The Aggies can make the playoff as an at-large team, but having success against the nation’s ninth-toughest schedule will require significant improvement. That can be measured early with a Sept. 13 win against Notre Dame, a team that beat the Aggies at home last season.

Toughest test: Nov. 29 at Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas an 80.4% chance to win this Friday night rivalry game in Austin, but if the Aggies pull off the upset, they might be able to claim a win against the eventual SEC champs.

What the committee will like: Marquee road wins. The Aggies’ best chances to impress the committee are trips to Notre Dame, LSU and Texas. Midseason trips to Arkansas and Missouri will also be difficult, and are part of a three-game road swing that will help define the Aggies’ place in the committee’s rankings. The committee would reward Texas A&M for a winning record in those five road games. That would mean Texas A&M beat at least one of the big three — Notre Dame, LSU or Texas — along with Arkansas and Missouri. The better they fare against those opponents, the more margin for error the committee might give them at home against Florida and South Carolina.

What the committee won’t like: Another November to forget. The only team Texas A&M beat last November was New Mexico State. Slow golf clap. If the Aggies are going to stay relevant, they’ve got to finish strong, punctuating their résumé with a win against someone other than Samford. Back-to-back wins at Mizzou and South Carolina would provide some wiggle room heading into Texas.


Last year: 10-3
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +5000
CFP ranking history: 34 appearances, highest at No. 4

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 30.7% | Win national title: 1.5%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is about right for a two-loss SEC team that can earn an at-large bid. Coach Lane Kiffin has had at least 10 wins in three of the past four seasons and can do it again. Ole Miss will have a new starting quarterback for the first time in three seasons following the departure of Jaxson Dart, but rookie Austin Simmons has fared well in limited time, and the Rebels should again have a talented group of receivers. The defense made significant strides it can continue to build on but is looking to replace the bulk of production up front.

Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Georgia. Ole Miss won this game at home last year 28-10, but it was unable to turn that into a playoff berth, adding a third loss in their next game at Florida. This time, the game is at Georgia, and ESPN’s FPI gives the Bulldogs an 80.6% chance to win.

What the committee will like: A Sept. 20 win against Tulane. Don’t sleep on the importance of beating the AAC champs — especially if they wind up being a playoff team as the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion. ESPN’s FPI currently gives Tulane a 45.4% chance to win the AAC, a significant lead over Memphis at 14.9%. A head-to-head win against a playoff team would earn Ole Miss credit on Selection Day.

What the committee won’t like: An October slide. The Rebels end the month with back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma, and ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss less than a 50% chance to beat both. If those are the only two games Ole Miss loses, it can still be a playoff team, but LSU and South Carolina are also on the schedule. If Ole Miss is going to finish as a two-loss team or better, there will be some pressure to be undefeated heading into late October.


Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +1800
CFP ranking history: 47 appearances, highest at No. 1 (three times)

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff 30.3% | Win national title: 2.1%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. This is the deepest, most complete team Brian Kelly has had at LSU, and he has said repeatedly it’s good enough to contend for the national title. LSU might have the best quarterback in the country in veteran Garrett Nussmeier, but he will work with four new starters on the offensive line. While the defense has much to prove, Kelly said the group is good enough to win the big games.

Toughest test: Aug. 30 at Clemson. The Tigers also have to travel to Ole Miss and Alabama, but neither of those opponents have a starting quarterback as experienced as Clemson’s Cade Klubnik. This season opener will give the winner an early edge in the committee meeting room because of a strong nonconference win against a ranked opponent.

What the committee will like: A winning road record. LSU has the 11th-toughest schedule in the country, and some of that has to do with trips to Clemson, Ole Miss, Vandy, Bama and Oklahoma. If LSU is going to get into the CFP as an at-large bid, the committee would have a hard time excluding the Tigers if they went at least 3-2 in those games. They should beat Vandy and OU if they’re a true playoff team, but that record would also assure at least one more win against another contender.

What the committee won’t like: A loss to Clemson. If LSU doesn’t win, its nonconference résumé will likely be 3-1 with wins against Louisiana Tech, Southeast Louisiana and Western Kentucky. Clemson’s head-to-head win would also give it one of several tiebreakers the committee uses to help separate otherwise comparable teams. It’s not that LSU can’t overcome a tough season-opening road loss to what could be the ACC champs — but it will be under pressure to earn statement wins that won’t be any easier. ESPN’s FPI currently gives LSU less than a 50% chance to win its games against Clemson, Ole Miss and Alabama.


Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +3000
CFP ranking history: 42 appearances, highest at No. 1

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 25.3% Win national title: 1%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Michigan should be better than last year’s 8-5 finish, but by how much? There are more questions than answers heading into the season opener against New Mexico, starting at the top. Coach Sherrone Moore is expected to be suspended for two games as part of the self-imposed sanctions for the Connor Stalions advanced scouting scandal. It’s also still unclear if talented freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood will lead the offense from Day 1.

Toughest test: Nov. 29 vs. Ohio State. Michigan couldn’t possibly beat the defending national champs a fifth straight time … could it?

What the committee will like: A Sept. 6 win at Oklahoma. The Sooners are a borderline top 25 team, but as long as they have a respectable season above .500, the committee will reward Michigan for a road win against an SEC team through Selection Day. This is also one of the few opportunities Michigan has to impress the committee with a road win against a ranked opponent.

What the committee won’t like: Only one win against a ranked opponent. If the Sooners don’t crack the top 25, it’s possible that Ohio State will be the only ranked opponent Michigan faces this season. The Wolverines avoid both Penn State and Oregon. It’s also possible Michigan earns a win against a ranked Oklahoma team — but loses to Ohio State. While the committee does appreciate wins against teams above .500, other contenders with multiple wins against CFP top 25 opponents will likely have an edge in the rankings.


Last year: 12-2, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 26 appearances, highest at No. 9

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 25.2% | Win national title: .1%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Boise State should have the best chances of any Group of 5 team to earn a spot as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. According to ESPN Analytics, Boise State has the best chance of any team in the country to win its league (45.6%). The Broncos also rank No. 13 in returning production (67%), according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Quarterback Maddux Madsen will have a veteran offensive line in front of him, and the defense should remain one of the best in the Mountain West.

Toughest test: Oct. 4 at Notre Dame. This is the only opponent ESPN’s FPI gives Boise State less than a 50% chance to beat. It’s the first real opportunity to determine whether Boise State can still hang with the nation’s elite without Ashton Jeanty.

What the committee will like: A close game against the Irish. The committee pays attention to how teams lose, and if Boise State can take the Irish to the wire on their home turf, that’s the kind of performance that the group will remember on Selection Day. The same thing happened last season, when Oregon beat Boise State 37-34 at home. Even though it was a loss, the committee held the Broncos in high regard for pushing the eventual Big Ten champs to the limit.

What the committee won’t like: The No. 81 schedule strength. Boise State has what should be a fun, entertaining lineup, but it’s not going to do the Broncos any favors if they don’t win their conference — and that’s not a given. UNLV will again be right on their heels, this time under coach Dan Mullen. Boise State needs to hope that one or two of its opponents — maybe UNLV, App State or San Jose State — sneak into the committee’s top 25 to help boost its résumé. It would be an interesting debate if Boise State beat Notre Dame but didn’t win the MWC. That head-to-head tiebreaker would loom large in the room, but if both teams finish with one loss, Notre Dame’s No. 38 schedule could nullify it on Selection Day, preventing an at-large bid in spite of one of the best wins in the country.


Last year: 9-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 14 appearances, highest at No. 16

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 24.3% | Win national title: .2%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Someone from the Group of 5 is going to make the CFP, and it’s most likely going to be the champion from either the Mountain West Conference or the American. Tulane has the best shot to win the latter, at least on paper this preseason, but Memphis will be its biggest challenger.

Toughest test: Sept. 20 at Ole Miss. The Green Wave will again have a chance to impress the committee with a tough nonconference game after coming up painfully short against Kansas State and Oklahoma last season. ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss a 78.1% chance to win — the only opponent Tulane has less than a 50% chance of beating.

What the committee will like: Style points. Tulane and Boise State have similar schedules (Boise State is No. 81 and Tulane is No. 86). There’s no difference in that gap in the committee meeting room, which means that if both of them win their respective conferences — and lose to the toughest nonconference opponents — the deciding factor will simply be who has played consistently better all season. This doesn’t mean Tulane has to run up the score (the committee doesn’t incentivize margin of victory) — but it does need a strong showing against the likes of Army and Memphis.

What the committee won’t like: A home loss to Duke or Northwestern. If the committee is going to reward Tulane with a playoff spot, some people in that room will have a hard time voting the Green Wave ahead of the Mountain West champ with a home loss to Duke or Northwestern. Yes, Duke is coming off a respectable 9-4 season and is trending up with coach Manny Diaz, but if Boise State finishes with one loss (Notre Dame) and Tulane has two (Ole Miss and Duke), the committee’s choice seems obvious.


Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: 24 appearances, highest at No. 7

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 22.2% | Win national title: .4%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The reality is the Big 12 is once again the most wide-open race in the FBS, but with quarterback Avery Johnson returning for his second season as the starter, expectations are high. According to ESPN’s FPI, K-State has a 19.9% chance to win the Big 12, a slight edge over defending champ Arizona State (13%). It’s not impossible for the Big 12 to get two playoff teams in, but the most likely scenario for the second team is as the league runner-up in a close loss — similar to what happened with SMU last year in the ACC.

Toughest test: Oct. 25 at Kansas. An in-state rival on the road during the heart of the season will have implications on the Big 12 standings and in turn the CFP race. ESPN’s FPI gives K-State a 52.1% chance to win. The Wildcats escaped with a two-point win last year.

What the committee will like: A season-opening win against Iowa State in Dublin. The Cyclones are capable of winning the Big 12, and if K-State can knock them off in the season opener, it could help alleviate the blow of a loss in the Big 12 title game if they meet again. K-State would be able to claim a regular-season win against the conference champs. That’s a résumé booster that has helped teams before in the committee meeting room.

What the committee won’t like: No statement wins. If K-State doesn’t beat Iowa State, it might not have a win against a ranked team on its résumé. The Wildcats don’t face Arizona State or BYU during the regular season. Texas Tech could play its way into the top 25 and even make a run at the Big 12 title, and Kansas could as well, but there’s no headliner in the lineup to help separate K-State from another comparable contender.


Last year: 5-7
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +7500
CFP ranking history: 29 appearances, highest at No. 2

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21.8% | Win national title: 1.1%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Auburn might be one of the most improved teams in the country, but it might not show in wins against the nation’s 14th-toughest schedule. Auburn could still be a four-loss team (Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama), and while that would be its best finish under coach Hugh Freeze, it’s unlikely to make the cut for the 12-team field.

Toughest test: Oct. 11 vs. Georgia. There’s still a significant gap between these two programs, and it’s up to the Auburn offense to close it. The Tigers averaged 13.3 points in their seven losses last fall, and they’ll need stronger quarterback play to have a chance against Georgia, which won 31-13 last year.

What the committee will like: An Iron Bowl win. Beating rival Alabama in the regular-season finale could be a critical head-to-head tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record and are on the bubble. It’s not unreasonable for both Alabama and Auburn to finish with three losses this fall — but it’s also possible that Alabama earns a spot in the SEC title game. Auburn will have home-field advantage against the Tide, and a win would leave a lasting impression, especially if Alabama has a chance to win the SEC.

What the committee won’t like: Bad losses. Auburn lost to Cal and Arkansas last season, two unranked teams that both finished with at least six losses. If Auburn is going to have any shot as an at-large CFP team, it has to avoid similar traps.


Last year: 11-3
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: Four appearances, highest at No. 20

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21.3% | Win national title: .1%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is the right spot for UNLV, which can earn a spot in the playoff as the Mountain West Conference champion but is still looking up at Boise State until it proves otherwise.

Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Boise State. This is the only opponent ESPN’s FPI projects will beat UNLV, giving the Broncos a 59.8% chance to win. Last year, UNLV lost twice to Boise State — first during the regular season, and again in the MWC title game.

What the committee will like: Coach Dan Mullen. In a room filled with sitting athletic directors, former coaches and players, Mullen is a proven coaching commodity who will bring continued credibility to the sideline. He has lured in a roster filled with former blue-chippers and/or signees from power conferences. If he can translate that into some style points against weaker competition, it will help. UNLV will need to leave no doubt it’s the better team against the likes of Idaho State, Sam Houston, Wyoming and Nevada.

What the committee won’t like: The nation’s 113th strength of schedule. Any way you slice it, UNLV has to win the Mountain West to reach the CFP. A nonconference win against UCLA could help — maybe — but a Tulane win against Oklahoma would be better, and that would be a part of the conversation if the committee were comparing Tulane and UNLV as conference champs.


Last year: 11-3, CFP first round
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: Nine appearances, highest at No. 8

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21.1% | Win national title: .5%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is about right for the Mustangs, who should be sitting behind Clemson and Miami when it comes to representing the ACC in the playoff this fall. SMU will face them both, though, during the regular season and have a chance to prove otherwise.

Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Clemson. SMU came within a 56-yard field goal of winning the ACC title in its first season as a member of the conference, but this will be different. It’s on Clemson’s turf, and the Tigers are loaded with elite talent and veteran experience. Clemson will already have been challenged in its season opener against LSU, while this will likely be the first ranked opponent SMU will face.

What the committee will like: At least split with Clemson and Miami. SMU didn’t face either of them during the regular season last year, which was a major criticism of the Mustangs’ inclusion into the CFP. SMU can quiet some of its naysayers and impress the committee by avoiding an 0-2 record against the ACC’s two favorites. If SMU can steal one of those wins and return to the ACC title game, it will have a chance at returning to the CFP as an at-large team as the ACC runner-up. SMU’s schedule is average — No. 43 — but it’s significantly behind the SEC, which owns 15 of the nation’s 16 most difficult schedules. That will matter if SMU is trying to edge out an SEC team with more losses for an at-large bid. Clemson and Miami are SMU’s two best opportunities to impress the committee against ranked CFP contenders.

What the committee won’t like: A rerun of the first half of the 2024 ACC championship game. SMU played poorly in the first half of the ACC title game against Clemson and was a half a game away from being excluded from the CFP last year. Had the Mustangs not redeemed themselves with a respectable second half and near win, they would have been out. SMU went on to lose convincingly to Penn State in the first round of the playoff. Although the selection committee members insist they start with a “blank slate” each year and each week, they’re also human — and the finish last season will be hard to forget. Quarterback Kevin Jennings, who returns, threw three interceptions — including two returned for touchdowns — in the CFP loss to Penn State. If SMU doesn’t win the ACC, it’s going to need to consistently look like a playoff team to return.


Last year: 7-6
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +10000
CFP ranking history: 33 appearances, highest at No. 4

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21% | Win national title: .4%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. USC is a borderline at-large CFP team that’s going to have two tough road trips to rival Notre Dame and Oregon. If those are the Ducks’ only two losses, it’s hard to imagine the committee excluding the Trojans, but right now USC has much to prove after last year’s 7-6 finish.

Toughest test: Nov. 22 at Oregon. This earned a small edge over the game in South Bend simply because of the Big Ten implications. Both Oregon and USC should be looking up at Ohio State and Penn State in the league standings, but the Ducks will be looking to protect their shot at returning to the Big Ten title game, and Autzen Stadium will be unforgiving.

What the committee will like: A head-to-head win against the Irish. It’s one of the tiebreakers the committee uses to separate teams with comparable records, and if Notre Dame and USC are both competing for an at-large bid, this result will be critical.

What the committee won’t like: No statement road wins. A win against Purdue isn’t going to do USC any favors, but unless the Trojans show some significant improvement from 2024, it might be the only road win they get. USC also travels to Illinois, Notre Dame, Nebraska and Oregon. Not one of those is a guarantee. Nebraska finished with its first winning season since 2016 last year. If Nebraska and Purdue are the Trojans’ only road wins, they need to hope the committee thinks highly of those opponents. The Huskers could be a surprise success in the Big Ten. These road trips could either help USC tremendously — or knock the Trojans out entirely.


Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +7500
CFP ranking history: Seven appearances, highest at No. 14

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff 20.3% | Win national title: 1%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The Gamecocks have the nation’s 13th-most difficult schedule, but this is probably also the most equipped the program has been to deal with it. Redshirt sophomore quarterback LaNorris Sellers is just scratching the surface of his talent, and the defensive front seven should remain one of the SEC’s best. South Carolina was on the brink of the CFP last season and is one statement win away from reaching it.

Toughest test: Oct. 11 at LSU. The season opener against Virginia Tech is by no means a gimme, but if South Carolina is a playoff team, it should enter Baton Rouge undefeated. In addition to being one of the most difficult places to win in the country, this trip will give the committee a critical head-to-head result to consider, along with an edge in the SEC standings.

What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the ACC. It was surprising — and controversial — last year that the committee didn’t give South Carolina more credit for beating eventual ACC champion Clemson. Historically, that has played a role in its Selection Day deliberations. This year, the expectations are even higher for Clemson, which is talented enough to repeat as ACC champs and make a deeper CFP run beyond the first round. If the committee has Clemson ranked higher than its No. 16 finish in 2024, and Virginia Tech finishes above .500, it will give South Carolina a stronger boost on Selection Day.

What the committee won’t like: Another 0-3 record against LSU, Bama and Ole Miss. South Carolina lost to LSU and Alabama last year by a combined five points. It still wasn’t enough for an at-large bid, as the Gamecocks finished No. 15 on Selection Day. Winning those games would obviously change that. South Carolina was stuck behind both Bama and Ole Miss because the committee continued to honor the head-to-head tiebreaker.


Last year: 6-7
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +6000
CFP ranking history: 52 appearances, highest at No. 2

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 18.4% | Win national title: .8%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The Sooners have lots to prove in their second season in the SEC after a 6-7 finish that was punctuated with a bowl loss to Navy. They’re a fringe contender in desperate need of an offensive answer after finishing next to last in the SEC in scoring offense (24 points per game). With a new offensive coordinator and quarterback, and coach Brent Venables now calling the plays on defense, it’s time to see if the overhaul pays off in Year 4 for Venables.

Toughest test: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. The rival Longhorns are the SEC favorites, and ESPN’s FPI gives Texas an 82.9% chance to win this game. It will reveal the gap between the two storied programs and how far the Sooners have to go to return to playoff relevance.

What the committee will like: Look like an SEC team. Let’s start with the basics. Somehow, the only thing Oklahoma won in the SEC last year was the unofficial Iron Bowl, beating both Alabama and Auburn — but nobody else in the conference. While the committee members will say repeatedly they rank teams, not conferences, their past rankings indicate a high regard for the SEC (Alabama was the top three-loss team last year). If OU is going to join that club, though, the Sooners have to start looking the part of an SEC school.

What the committee won’t like: A Sept. 6 home loss to Michigan. It’s the only nonconference opportunity against a Power 4 opponent to impress the committee. Wins against Illinois State, Temple and Kent State won’t help the Sooners overcome any SEC losses. A win against Michigan could be a CFP top 25 win, and the head-to-head result could be a significant tiebreaker if they’re both competing for an at-large bid.


Last year: 11-3, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: 10 appearances, highest at No. 6

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 16.1% | Win national title: .2%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Where’s the computer love for the defending Big 12 champs?! The Sun Devils return 79% of last year’s production, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. This is a team that should start the season on the bubble of the bracket — not the top 25. Quarterback Sam Leavitt and receiver Jordyn Tyson are potential first-round NFL draft picks, and 10 starters return from a defense that led the league in run defense (112.9 yards) and was No. 3 in scoring defense (22.6 points).

Toughest test: Nov. 1 at Iowa State. Ames is a notoriously tricky place to win, and this game will be important for both Big 12 and CFP standings. Last year, ASU beat Iowa State 45-10 to win the Big 12 title and earn the league’s lone CFP spot.

What the committee will like: A Big 12 title. It’s going to be difficult (again) for the Big 12 runner-up to secure a second CFP spot unless it’s a lights-out, no-brainer pick, and it’s going to be difficult for ASU to prove that with the nation’s No. 73 schedule strength — especially when so many SEC teams’ schedules are ranked among the top 15. Arizona State will have some opponents sneak into the CFP top 25, and the committee respects wins against good teams — even if they’re not ranked — but it will also give the edge to contenders that have better statement wins against a more rigorous schedule.

What the committee won’t like: A loss to Mississippi State. Don’t let the SEC label fool you. ASU beat the 2-10 Bulldogs last year and should do it again if it’s a true playoff team. A loss would mean no Power 4 nonconference wins, as the rest of the schedule includes Northern Arizona and Texas State. There’s also upset potential at Baylor to end September, and that would be a devastating start for a program aiming for history.


Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +4000
CFP ranking history: 28 appearances, highest at No. 6 (three times)

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 14.5% | Win national title: .7%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Florida might have the best quarterback in the country in DJ Lagway, but it also has the most difficult schedule in the FBS. Again. The Gators are a long shot to win the SEC, and their chances of earning an at-large bid hinge on their ability to beat a lineup comprised mainly of top-25 teams.

Toughest test: Nov. 1 vs. Georgia. The Gators also have to face Texas in October, but the history between the Gators and Bulldogs runs deep. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 79.7% chance to win. Florida lost to both Georgia and Texas last year in back-to-back weeks. This year, the Gators have a bye week to prepare for Georgia.

What the committee will like: A Sept. 20 road win against Miami. The committee factors in the intangibles of rivalry games, and an in-state win against what should be a ranked Canes team would earn Florida some credit in the room. It could increase in value if Miami wins the ACC and clinches a spot in the playoff as one of the committee’s five highest-ranked conference champs. Even if Miami doesn’t win the ACC, the head-to-head tiebreaker could be a factor in the room if both teams are competing for an at-large spot. This is also the kind of nonconference win that could help separate Florida from the Big 12 runner-up if they’re competing for an at-large spot.

What the committee won’t like: An injury to Lagway. His health is critical to the team’s success, and the committee considers injuries to key players — which is why undefeated Florida State didn’t make the CFP in 2023 as the ACC champ. That’s not to say that Florida couldn’t make the playoff without Lagway — in 2014 Ohio State won the national title with its third-string quarterback. But the Gators would have to prove to the committee that they still look like a playoff team with Lagway sidelined. He has already dealt with a shoulder injury, a lower body injury and a hamstring injury during his career.


Last year: 5-7
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: Three appearances, highest at No. 16

ESPN Analytics
Make the playoff: 13.4% | Win national title: .1%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Kansas’ only role in the CFP last year was as a spoiler, knocking off three CFP-ranked opponents (Iowa State, BYU and Colorado) in consecutive weeks. It was too little, too late, though, and Kansas finished 5-7. Although the Jayhawks can build on their 3-1 finish and contend to win a wide-open Big 12, Kansas has to show more consistency before being taken seriously as an at-large possibility.

Toughest test: Oct. 11 at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have poured booster money into their NIL collective, quietly building a roster capable of surprising the Big 12 favorites. It certainly won’t be easy for Kansas to go into Mizzou on Sept. 6 and win, but the mid-October trip to Lubbock will have bigger postseason implications.

What the committee will like: A Sept. 6 win at Missouri. The Tigers are a fringe top-25 team, but their defense last year was one of the best in the FBS. If Mizzou can navigate offseason turnover on offense and have a respectable season — which it should — this could be a significant SEC road win for Kansas’ résumé.

What the committee won’t like: Any doubt. Kansas has little if any margin for error if it doesn’t win the Big 12. In addition to beating the Big 12’s best, the Jayhawks need to do what they couldn’t last year — avoid upsets and look like a playoff team against unranked competition.


Last year: 11-2
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +30000
CFP ranking history: 17 appearances, highest at No. 6

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 12.6% | Win national title: .1%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Because BYU has a strong chance to win the Big 12, it should be higher on this list — but how much higher depends on how the Cougars look without quarterback Jake Retzlaff. The Cougars still return their leading rusher, LJ Martin, and wide receiver Chase Roberts, who had over 850 yards and four touchdowns last year. BYU’s defense was also one of the best in the country last year at snagging turnovers. The returning talent will help ease the transition of whoever replaces Retzlaff as the starter.

Toughest test: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. The Cougars will have a bye week to prepare for this, but it’s still the second straight tough road trip following the Oct. 25 game at Iowa State. ESPN’s FPI projects BYU to lose both of those games, but if the Cougars can’t win in Ames, the trip to Texas Tech becomes even more consequential.

What the committee will like: One loss or better. BYU finished 10-2 last year, good enough for No. 17 on Selection Day. BYU probably has to win the Big 12 to earn a playoff spot, and it can’t lose to an opponent it’s supposed to beat (such as unranked Kansas last year). If BYU is going to have any shot at an at-large bid, its ideal scenario would be as a one-loss Big 12 runner-up, with the lone loss coming in the conference championship game. If BYU finishes with two losses, though, and no Big 12 title, it’s probably going to land where it did last year — in a regular bowl game.

What the committee won’t like: The nonconference schedule. BYU starts September against Portland State, Stanford and East Carolina — none of which will help the Cougars’ playoff résumé. BYU has the No. 74 schedule in the country, and while the September slate might be ideal to break in a new starting quarterback, an early loss or ugly win to an unranked opponent will still be remembered in the committee meeting room.


Last year: 6-7
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 10 appearances, highest at No. 13

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 12.5% | Win national title: .2%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Until proved otherwise, everyone in the ACC is looking up at Clemson, Miami and SMU. Virginia Tech has a chance to surprise some people, but it fell below expectations last year and has even more questions heading into this season after 24 players entered the transfer portal and others moved on to the NFL.

Toughest test: Aug. 31 vs. South Carolina. Yes, the Hokies will have had all summer to prepare for their most difficult game of the regular season, but so will the Gamecocks, who are leading the race between the two programs to reach the CFP for the first time. ESPN’s FPI gives South Carolina a 65.7% chance to win. There are also personal ties involved, as South Carolina coach Shane Beamer’s father, Frank, was the longtime head coach of the Hokies, where the younger Beamer was also a former assistant.

What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the SEC. A week after opening with the neutral site game against South Carolina, Virginia Tech hosts Vanderbilt, a much-improved SEC team that’s no longer a gimme. If the Hokies can win both of those games, it will compensate for the following two weeks against Old Dominion and Wofford. Those head-to-head results could also factor in as tiebreakers if any of the teams are in contention for an at-large bid and have similar records.

What the committee won’t like: A three-loss ACC team without a title. Considering three-loss Alabama was the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team last year (and still didn’t make the playoff at No. 11 on Selection Day), there’s even less margin for error in the ACC. If Virginia Tech loses to South Carolina, at Georgia Tech and against Miami, its playoff hopes are over without an ACC title. There are enough opportunities to impress the committee, but if Virginia Tech can’t manage a winning record against its ranked opponents, it’s going to be a hard sell in the room without winning the league.


Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: 26 appearances, highest at No. 5

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.5% | Win national title: .2%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Baylor is a team that can be in the conversation in November simply because it can win the Big 12. Coach Dave Aranda said this is his best team, and the Bears are poised to build off a strong finish to 2024. Still, Baylor will have to play its way into the committee’s top 25 before it’s taken seriously in the race.

Toughest test: Sept. 6 at SMU. This is a difficult in-state trip against the ACC runner-up, as ESPN’s FPI gives SMU a 65.3% chance to win.

What the committee will like: A 2-0 start. If Baylor beats Auburn and SMU — two games ESPN’s FPI projects it will lose — the Bears’ playoff stock will rise immediately. With two nonconference wins against Power 4 opponents, Baylor will separate from other contenders who played a weaker lineup — including in the Big 12. There’s also the slim possibility that Auburn or SMU is competing with Baylor for an at-large spot, and that head-to-head win would tilt at least one major tiebreaker in the Bears’ favor.

What the committee won’t like: A November fade. Baylor’s schedule is frontloaded with opportunities to impress the committee, including league matchups against favorites Arizona State and K-State. That leaves a lull, though, in the backstretch, which might not include one ranked opponent over the span of the final six games. That’s also when the rankings are in full swing, and the committee is the most dialed in. Historically, it’s been easier for teams to overcome early losses than late ones. A loss to an unranked league opponent would damage the Bears’ résumé at a critical point in the committee’s deliberations.


Last year: 7-6
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +15000
CFP ranking history: Eight appearances, highest at No. 10

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.3% | Win national title: .1%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Nebraska should take another step forward this fall, but even a three-loss Huskers team is a long shot for an at-large bid. Nebraska lost six games a year ago and is still trailing Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon in the CFP race. It might also be looking up at Michigan, depending on the outcome of the Sept. 20 game.

Toughest test: Nov. 22 at Penn State. Nebraska avoids Ohio State and Oregon this year, leaving the road trip to Happy Valley easily the most difficult game. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State an 83.2% chance to win.

What the committee will like: A strong showing at home. Even if Nebraska loses at Penn State, the Huskers have plenty of chances at home to boost their playoff résumé, starting with the Michigan game. If Nebraska can win that one, it will have a strong chance to be undefeated heading into November against USC. That would make Nebraska relevant when it matters the most and give the Huskers some margin for error. Nebraska also ends the season at home on a Friday against Iowa. Home wins against Michigan, USC and Iowa would put the Huskers in the conversation.

What the committee won’t like: The nonconference schedule. Wins against Cincinnati, Akron and Houston Christian aren’t going to help Nebraska’s playoff résumé, especially if the Huskers are looking for an at-large bid.


Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 25 appearances, highest at No. 3 (three times)

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.3% | Win national title: .2%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. It’s hard to believe this program played for the national title as recently as 2022. The Horned Frogs are again a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 team trying to build off last year’s 9-4 finish. The staff lured in the league’s top-rated recruiting class, but it’s going to take some time to translate. Until TCU plays its way into the CFP top 25, this is the right spot for the Frogs.

Toughest test: Oct. 11 at Kansas State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Wildcats a 63.3% chance to win.

What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the ACC. The season opener at UNC will be a fascinating Labor Day coaching matchup between Bill Belichick and TCU’s Sonny Dykes. It’s impossible to tell how UNC’s season will unfold — a win in Chapel Hill might not amount to anything in the committee meeting room come Selection Day if the Tar Heels don’t put together a respectable season. If they do, though, and TCU also earns a home win against 2024 ACC runner-up SMU, it could help the committee determine whether the ACC or Big 12 might be more deserving of a second team.

What the committee won’t like: Road woes. If TCU is going to make a run at the Big 12 title, it’s going to have to beat the league’s best on the road. Trips to Arizona State, K-State and BYU will help determine the league leader, and TCU will need a winning record against them to stay in the mix.


Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET odds to win national title: +10000
CFP ranking history: N/A

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.3% Win national title: .1%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The Red Raiders are a CFP sleeper team, but not as far from a shot as the computers indicate. The program spent more than $10 million to sign 17 new players, including seven on the offensive and defensive lines. The defense has been under construction after allowing at least 35 points in each of its five losses last year, but with improvement and the return of quarterback Behren Morton, Texas Tech can contend for the Big 12 title — and in turn a spot in the CFP.

Toughest test: Oct. 18 at Arizona State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Sun Devils a 61.2% chance to win. The defending Big 12 champs return 79% of their total production from last season, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against Arizona State and Kansas State. They’re both likely to be CFP top 25 teams, and beating them on the road would position Texas Tech at or near the top of the Big 12 standings.

What the committee won’t like: A September stumble. If Texas Tech is going to be taken seriously as a CFP contender, it should go undefeated in September. The Sept. 20 trip to Utah will be the toughest game of the month, but the Red Raiders can’t afford a Week 3 upset to Oregon State, either. The committee members won’t be wowed by home wins against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State or Oregon State — but they won’t forget losses to any of them. While a road loss to Utah isn’t horrible, it would put Texas Tech in a hole before the Red Raiders travel to ASU and K-State later in the season.

Continue Reading

Sports

Sources: Stanford to hire ex-Nike CEO as AD

Published

on

By

Sources: Stanford to hire ex-Nike CEO as AD

Stanford is set to hire former Nike CEO John Donahoe as the school’s new athletic director, sources told ESPN on Thursday.

Donahoe, 65, will arrive in the collegiate athletic director space with a vast swath of business experience, as Stanford officials viewed him as a “unicorn candidate” because of both his business ties and history at the school. Stanford coveted a nontraditional candidate for the role, and Donahoe’s hire delivers a seasoned CEO with stints at Nike, Bain & Company and eBay. He also served as the board chair of PayPal.

Donahoe also brings strong Stanford ties, as he’s a 1986 MBA graduate. He has also had two stints on the Stanford business school’s advisory board, including currently serving in that role.

Donahoe replaces Bernard Muir, who announced in February he was stepping down from the school after serving in that role since 2012. Alden Mitchell has been working as the school’s interim athletic director.

The hire is a head-turning one for Stanford, bringing in someone with Donahoe’s high-level business experience. And it comes at a time when the athletic department has struggled in its highest profile sports, as football is amid four consecutive 3-9 seasons and the men’s basketball team hasn’t reached the NCAA tournament since 2014.

In hiring Donahoe, they are aiming for someone who can find an innovative way to support general manager Andrew Luck and the Stanford football program while also figuring out a sustainable model for the future of Stanford’s Olympic sports.

Stanford’s Olympic sports remain the best in the country, as Stanford athletes or former athletes accounted for 39 medals in the 2024 Paris Olympics. If Stanford were a country, they would have tied with Canada for the 11th most medals. (Stanford has also won 26 of the possible 31 director’s cups for overall athletic success in college, including a 25-year streak from 1995 to 2019.)

Stanford officials approached Donahoe in recent weeks about the position, with both President Jonathan Levin and former women’s basketball coach Tara VanDerveer among the chief recruiters. Donahoe has a long-standing relationship with both, as he maintained strong ties to the school throughout his career.

Per ESPN sources, Luck will report to Donahoe in this role. Luck spent time with him in the interview process and is excited to work with him, per sources. (That’s a change from the prior structure, as upon Luck’s hiring he had been slated to report to Levin.)

Stanford is set to begin a football season in which it is picked last in the 17-team ACC. Former NFL coach Frank Reich is the interim coach, and both sides have made clear this is a definitive interim situation and he won’t return after the 2025 season.

Continue Reading

Sports

Day details what will decide Buckeyes’ QB battle

Published

on

By

Day details what will decide Buckeyes' QB battle

Ohio State coach Ryan Day hasn’t named a starter at quarterback yet, but he did go into detail Thursday about what he will be looking for as Lincoln Kienholz and Julian Sayin compete to replace Will Howard, who led the Buckeyes to their sixth national title and first in a decade in January.

“We have good pieces around them and they just need to make routine plays routinely, have command [of the offense] and make great decisions,” Day said.

Sayin, a 6-foot-1, 203-pound redshirt freshman from California, ended last season as Howard’s backup, but the five-star recruit played in only four games and threw 12 passes.

Kienholz is a 6-3, 215-pound sophomore in eligibility who brought a lesser recruiting pedigree with him from South Dakota three years ago, but he brings more size and possibly athleticism to the position.

Kienholz appeared in two games last season but did not attempt a pass. He completed 10 of 22 passes for 111 yards as the third-stringer in 2023.

Tavien St. Clair, a freshman from Bellefontaine, is also in the mix, but he has to be considered a long shot given his newness in the offense — especially with the Aug. 30 season opener against a visiting Texas squad that could be ranked No. 1.

“Going into the game, you certainly would like to have a starter named,” Day said. “Each competition is a little bit different. If we have to go in with multiple quarterbacks, then that’s probably not a great thing going into Week 1, but you never know. You got to do the best you can to win the game.”

Howard joined the squad as a fifth-year senior transfer from Kansas State last offseason, won the job last August and threw for 4,010 yards and 35 touchdowns while leading the Buckeyes to the title.

He was as much regarded for his maturity and leadership as his ability to throw the football.

“Will probably doesn’t get enough credit for all the little things that kept the offense moving,” Day said. “Sometimes it’s throwing the ball away to keep us on schedule. And then I say it all the time, ultimately as a quarterback, third down, red zone and two-minute drill is where you’re making money.”

On the other side of the ball, Ohio State got some potential bad news when sophomore defensive lineman Eddrick Houston had to be helped off the field with an apparent right leg injury.

Day had no update on Houston after practice. Sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel that it does not look like a long-term injury and is not considered serious.

Houston, a top recruit in the class of 2024, is viewed as one of the top candidates to start inside and be a difference-maker for line coach Larry Johnson.

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.

Continue Reading

Trending