When the New York Mets and New York Yankees met in the first Subway Series of 2025 in mid-May, life was good for baseball fans in New York. Both Big Apple teams sat in first place in their respective divisions and both seemed like postseason locks.

But things have recently taken a turn for both N.Y. teams.

First, the Yankees tumbled out of first place in the American League East, faced an injury scare to MVP front-runner Aaron Judge and lost ground in the AL wild-card race. Then the Mets joined the spiral, losing seven straight games and falling from a battle with the Philadelphia Phillies for National League East supremacy to clinging on to the NL’s final wild-card spot.

Are the struggles simply a blip for two playoff-bound teams — or the beginning of an epic collapse? What will it take for each to turn it around from here? And will the Yankees or Mets be the last N.Y. team standing come October? We asked ESPN MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Buster Olney, Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers to weigh in.

How concerned are you about the Mets after their recent slump?

Castillo: Somewhat concerned, because that starting rotation is a problem. Since June 13, Mets starters rank 28th in ERA (4.99) and 29th in innings pitched. (David Peterson is the only Mets starter to complete a six-inning start since June 7.) Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga have not been the front-line performers the Mets projected since coming off the injured list. Clay Holmes, a converted reliever, hasn’t recorded more than 16 outs in an outing in more than two months. Frankie Montas, with a 6.38 ERA, has seemingly pitched himself out of the rotation.

Why just somewhat concerned? First of all, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn could provide boosts when they are activated from the injured list, as could Brandon Sproat and Nolan McLean, two right-handed pitching prospects who have excelled in Triple-A and could receive a call to Queens soon. But mostly because the lineup is too good to struggle for much longer, and it’s hard to imagine the Cincinnati Reds or St. Louis Cardinals surpassing the Mets to seize the third wild-card spot. And in the end, teams can win in October with weaker starting rotations and strong bullpens (see: 2024 Dodgers).

Olney: Concerned, for sure, because of the strength of the National League, and the depth of the Mets’ issues — the struggling lineup, the slumping rotation, the inconsistency of the bullpen. The Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies are the standard for the league these days: The Brewers have a high-end defense, a good rotation and roster depth, and the Phillies have that exceptional rotation, maybe the best closer in Jhoan Duran and a lineup of experienced hitters. Lately, the Mets don’t come close to measuring up to that standard, as we saw with a sweep by Milwaukee last weekend.

Passan: Not terribly concerned. Just as I wasn’t overly bullish when the Mets won seven consecutive games … less than two weeks ago. Yes, some of the Mets’ flaws have been laid bare for all to see. Their lineup is thin. Their starting pitching, too. But outside of that first loss in the streak, the Mets have been outscored by 10 whole runs in six losses. It’s not the sort of thing one typically sees from a team with as deep of a bullpen as New York’s, nor is it likely to continue. They’ve had the worst strand rate among relievers since Aug. 1, and that will even out. They’ve had awful production from the bottom half of the lineup, but at least they’re not striking out. The Mets might not be a world beater, but this is a team that has spent more days in first place this year than not. The notion that it would all disappear over two weeks doesn’t give them enough credit.

Rogers: It depends on what you mean by concerned. They won’t fall out of a wild-card spot, but they’ve essentially lost the division with this skid. The offense’s slump has lasted way too long, and the rotation is on shaky ground — though they’ve actually outperformed my expectations. In any case, the Mets are too good to rank last in OPS since the All-Star break. That will turn.

Fortunately, New York gobbled up a lot of first-half wins to withstand this slump. The Mets will be playing in October but it’ll be the first few days of October instead of getting a bye into the division round.

How concerned are you about the Yankees after their second-half struggles?

Castillo: Extremely concerned. My take on the Yankees has been that they would make the postseason as long as Aaron Judge stayed healthy, because he is good enough to help mask their deficiencies in a weak American League. Well, Judge is dealing with a flexor strain that forced him to miss nearly two weeks, has kept him out of right field since returning and has undoubtedly affected his ability to produce in the batter’s box. Judge being limited to DH has forced the Yankees to play Giancarlo Stanton in right field or keep Stanton, one of their best hitters, out of the lineup altogether.

Now about those deficiencies. The Yankees’ starting rotation has not been good enough since Clarke Schmidt was lost for the season and Max Fried began his downhill turn when the calendar flipped to July. The bullpen, even after a deadline makeover, has faltered too often at the wrong times. The offense has become too reliant on the home run. And the Yankees’ mind-blowing propensity to play sloppy baseball only exacerbates the issues. The Yankees have the talent to compete for a World Series, but they might not have that opportunity if they don’t stop the bleeding. The Cleveland Guardians and Texas Rangers are within striking distance in the wild-card standings.

Olney: The Yankees are three-quarters of the way through their schedule and Aaron Boone is still trying to figure out his bullpen — a tough place for any team to be in a pennant race, let alone the defending AL champions. But we can look back at the ’21 Atlanta Braves and the ’23 Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks for this reminder: It is possible to find yourself late in the season. It is possible to have a turnaround. And the landscape in front of the Yankees might be as friendly as we’ve ever seen for a pennant contender.

They have the easiest finishing schedule for any club, per FanGraphs; they finish their season with consecutive series against the Minnesota Twins, who have been the Yankees’ version of the Washington Generals over the past 25 years; the Baltimore Orioles, who are playing out the string; the Chicago White Sox, who are getting better but are still years away from contending; and then the Orioles again. Don’t be surprised if the Yankees finish the regular season with a flourish, and at least defer some of the big-picture questions that always hover over N.Y. teams.

Passan: Not nearly as concerned as my brethren. Beyond Buster’s point about the cakewalk at the end of the season are the impending returns of Fernando Cruz, Ryan Yarbrough and Jonathan Loaísiga to bolster the pitching staff and the ability of the Yankees lineup to mash home runs. This is not to suggest the Yankees are a championship-caliber team. Compared to their peers, they don’t look the part. This slump is not an anomaly; the Yankees have lived somewhere between mediocre and bad for the better part of two months. The AL is a mess, though, and the Yankees still look like the best of a bunch of good-enough options.

Rogers: Very concerned. The Yankees feel so one-dimensional that it comes down to this for them: If the middle of their lineup can stay on the field, they might be OK. But if Judge or Giancarlo Stanton miss many more games, things could get even worse. The Yankees also need Max Fried & Co. to find their groove again. New York ranks 26th in ERA since the break.

The Rangers and maybe even the Guardians feel like better all-around teams right now, even though they still trail the Yankees in the standings. They might not be looking up at New York for long.

What will it take for each New York team to turn it around from here?

Castillo: Both teams overhauled their bullpens and didn’t acquire a starting pitcher at the trade deadline, balking at the cost to land a front-line starter. Now both teams need their starting rotations to perform better to ease the pressure on their bullpens and offenses.

Olney: In the spring, we thought the Mets would have a dynamic circular lineup, threats from 1 to 9. That needs to develop down the stretch, because unlike the Yankees, the Mets won’t be rescued by their future schedule. They have one of baseball’s tougher slates the rest of the way. Whether it’s Cedric Mullins, who might be adjusting to his new surroundings, a resurgent Francisco Lindor or Francisco Alvarez, someone from that group needs to take charge. And look, the rotation that was so good back in April and into the middle of May has to be better, getting deeper into games to take some pressure off the bullpen.

Passan: The Yankees need to stop walking hitters — they’ve issued the most free passes of any staff since Aug. 1 — and stop giving away outs on defense and the basepaths. For a team with playoff aspirations, they play an undisciplined brand of baseball. Oh, and Judge, who doesn’t have an extra-base hit since returning, must recapture his swing.

The Mets need one player to step up in each of three areas: lineup, rotation, bullpen. Because of the depth David Stearns has built — not a backlog of stars, but the sorts of players who can go on two-week-long heaters — there are plenty of options to carry the mantle. Whether it’s Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Mark Vientos or Mullins on offense, Kodai Senga or Sean Manaea among starters or Ryan Helsley or Ryne Stanek in a relief role, the Mets have too much talent to roll over for Cincinnati.

Rogers: No reason to dig deep on the Yankees: Their starters need to get it together. Since the All-Star break, that group ranks 24th in ERA. Fried and Carlos Rodon — so good in the first half — just haven’t had the same production in the second. Perhaps Luis Gil can find his groove and give them a jolt — he’s slowly looking better and better — but the former two players need to lead the Yankees down the stretch. Conversely, the Mets stars have to act the part at the plate, beginning with Lindor, who is well under the Mendoza line since the break. Mets hitters need to play it loose and free — hard to do in New York — and stop squeezing their collective bats so tight. Odds say they will turn it around — it’s so bad, it’s hard to imagine it will continue.

Which New York team will be playing deeper into October?

Castillo: I’ll go with the Mets because they can work around their rotation weakness in October with aggressive bullpen usage. Judge’s status remains a concern for the Yankees.

Olney: The American League is absolutely wide open, which gives the Yankees an inherent advantage late in the year. The Yankees are competing against teams like the Guardians and Rangers to get into the playoffs, and if they can do that successfully, they’d have to get through the likes of Toronto and Seattle, who don’t have a lot of postseason experience.

The Mets, on the other hand, face a gauntlet of baseball’s best teams: the Brewers, Phillies, San Diego Padres, Dodgers. It’s as if the Mets have to run a double marathon and the Yankees are doing a corporate fun run. The Yankees have a better shot of lasting because the challenge is simply not the same.

Passan: If the playoffs started today, the Yankees would face a banged-up Houston Astros team — always a tough series, yes, but a winnable one. The Mets, on the other hand, would be lined up against Los Angeles, a series strongly tilted toward the Dodgers. At the end of the day, I believe the Mets are a slightly superior team to the Yankees, but because of the competition in each league, the Yankees’ chance of advancing slightly exceeds that of their crosstown rivals.

Rogers: The Mets, because I’m not sure the Yankees make it. And that bullpen they added in Queens at the deadline will come in handy in October. Don’t count the Mets out. They have a run in them.