Updated top 100 MLB prospect rankings: There’s a new No. 1
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Kiley McDaniel
A lot has changed since the last time we ranked the top MLB prospects.
The MLB draft and breakout seasons have added new names to our list, replacing players who have graduated or regressed in 2025 — and some of the prospects on the list are in new places after a busy MLB trade deadline.
All of that movement makes this the perfect time for an updated ranking of the top players in the sport — along with some of the biggest risers of the season — heading into the final weeks of the minor league season.
This is my ranking of these players for the long term, considering their upside, risk and proximity to the big leagues, in consultation with scouts and execs around the league. Here’s more on the grading tiers and lingo I use. Players in the big leagues are eligible for this update (MLB rookie eligibility rules apply here — 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on the active roster) so you will see some recently called up major leaguers.
Now let’s get to my final 2025 ranking of the best young prospects in baseball.
60 FV tier
1. Konnor Griffin, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
It has been an improbable rise for the No. 9 pick in the 2024 MLB draft, going from being a high school hitter with big questions about his swing to ranking as the top prospect in the game in roughly 12 months.
I compared Griffin’s upside to Fernando Tatis Jr. at draft time and he’s following that plan, but with even better early reports on his shortstop defense and patience. Griffin is a plus-plus runner and thrower who can be average to above defensively almost anywhere on the field and has 30-homer upside, especially if he can lift the ball a bit more.
With some performance in Double-A (he was just promoted to the level), he will move into the hallowed 65 FV prospect tier, which doesn’t always have a player in it.
2. Kevin McGonigle, SS, Detroit Tigers
I was the guy in the media high on McGonigle when he was part of a very deep prep position-player crop in the 2023 draft — and my belief in him has paid off better than I could’ve expected so far.
The concerns at draft time were that his power/speed combo and odds to stick at shortstop weren’t strong enough to warrant going higher than 37th overall (where Detroit took him). He has been at least a passable shortstop as a pro and has a real shot to stick long-term. His power (by literally any measure) is now above average, if not plus.
McGonigle’s feel and on-base skills were never in question, so now he looks like he could be above average at everything in the batter’s box and closer to average on the bases and in the field.
3. Jesus Made, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Made leapt onto the prospect scene last summer into the middle of the top 100 amid one of the best DSL performances we’ve ever seen. He has continued to deliver with an .801 OPS across both Single-A levels as a 17- and 18-year-old this season.
Made is an above-average contact/patience threat with at least plus power, though his flatter swing plane is keeping his homer totals down at the moment.
4. Samuel Basallo, C, Baltimore Orioles
Basallo has legit 40-homer potential and might be an every-day catcher. He is a good enough framer and blocker, and he has a plus arm, though his exchange and accuracy are lacking a bit.
The reasons I have him just behind Made are because of the rocky development path catchers typically take and the fact that Basallo still tends to chase pitches out of the strike zone, which could undermine both his on-base and power potential against big league pitching.
That said, Basallo has to be ranked high because he’s a 21-year-old catcher who just got called up to the majors and could lead the league in homers in a few years.
5. Leo De Vries, SS, Athletics
In the most A.J. Preller trade to date, the Padres traded De Vries to the A’s at the deadline in a package for reliever Mason Miller.
Though he is playing shortstop now, De Vries is a below-average runner and it’s looking more likely that he’ll need to slide over to third base.
The negatives end there as De Vries has a plus arm, above-average-to-plus power, great feel to pull and lift to get to that power in games, average-to-above contact/patience and all of that from an 18-year-old switch-hitter who is already playing in High-A.
There is some thought that he looks a little more like a very good player than a potential star, but either way De Vries is a very high probability, strong, every-day infielder with a shot to be an impact player.
6. Max Clark, CF, Detroit Tigers
Clark was the No. 3 pick in the 2023 draft, and everything has basically gone to plan since Detroit selected him.
He is a plus runner who fits in center field defensively, and he has plus contact skills and plus pitch selection at the plate. He’ll probably hit 20 homers in his best seasons but should hover around 15 on an annual basis with lots of doubles and triples.
7. Colt Emerson, SS, Seattle Mariners
Emerson was the 22nd pick in that same 2023 draft as Clark and it quickly became apparent that he was underrated.
He is now in Double-A and looks like he can be an every-day lefty-hitting MLB shortstop with above-average on-base percentages and 20ish homers.
8. Sebastian Walcott, SS, Texas Rangers
The sales pitch is easy here: Walcott is a 6-foot-4 potential long-term shortstop with big power.
That length to his frame creates plus-plus power potential — but also some swing-and-miss in the zone. His pitch selection is solid, but the main issue right now is that his flat swing plane is keeping him from posting homer totals that match his raw power.
9. Travis Bazzana, 2B, Cleveland Guardians
Bazzana was the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft but doesn’t have the conventional superstar upside you may associate with that.
He is a plus runner and fine second-base defender whose best offensive traits are his patience and pull/lift ability. His bat-to-ball and raw power are close to average, but he should post plus on-base percentages and hit 20ish homers annually.
10. Aidan Miller, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Miller was another 2023 draft prep position player from the deep group that produced McGonigle, Clark and Emerson ranked above on this list.
He is on the shortstop/third base defensive spectrum but has improved defensively (and seems quicker on the basepaths, too) to the point that I think he can be an average defensive option at shortstop — though some teams will likely move him if they have a superior option.
Miller has above-average-to-plus raw power right now but still has some work to do to fully tap into it in games, though he has been productive with 21 homers and 70 stolen bases in 196 games the past two seasons.
11. Walker Jenkins, CF, Minnesota Twins
Jenkins has played only 163 regular season professional games since going No. 5 in the 2023 draft because of various injuries. His .301/.405/.471 line with 16 homers and 34 stolen bases in those games while playing almost exclusively center field shows his power/speed combo and advanced feel to hit.
He is above average at basically everything on a baseball field, but durability has been an issue and that cost him a few spots on this list.
12. Josue De Paula, LF, Los Angeles Dodgers
I can’t shake the comp a scout gave me on De Paula a few years ago: Yordan Alvarez.
De Paula is a better runner and defender – he’s fine in left field – than the Astros slugger, but I don’t think he’ll be quite as elite at the plate. That said, De Paula should post plus on-base percentages buoyed by big walk rates and should grow into 25-30 homer seasons as he taps into his power.
13. Bubba Chandler, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
The first pitcher on this list didn’t crack the top dozen spots because of both the risks of pitching prospects in general and also a bit of a dip in who is still eligible as Chase Burns and Jacob Misiorowski recently graduated.
Chandler’s past nine starts in Triple-A have been just OK — 42 innings, 50 hits, five home runs, 24 walks, 47 strikeouts, 4.93 ERA. So, while he seemed ready for a big league look before this stretch, it’s now harder for the Pirates to make the move.
He still has front-line potential though, with a repertoire headlined by a plus fastball that sits 96-100 and hits 102 mph.
55 FV Tier
14. JJ Wetherholt, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
15. Thomas White, LHP, Miami Marlins
16. Kade Anderson, LHP, Seattle Mariners
17. Ethan Holliday, SS, Colorado Rockies
18. Jett Williams, SS, New York Mets
19. Nolan McLean, RHP, New York Mets
20. Eli Willits, SS, Washington Nationals
21. Jonah Tong, RHP, New York Mets
22. Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
23. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
Lawlar is a sure shortstop in Triple-A and has grown into plus raw power, but has had some health, contact and consistency issues over the past few years. Wetherholt and Williams are also Triple-A shortstops but might move off the position depending on what their big league teams need.
The top three players on my 2025 MLB draft board went in the top four picks and fall into this tier: Anderson, Holliday and Willits.
White, McLean and Tong are all arrow-up prospects this season, joining Painter on the verge of the big leagues as potential front-line starters. I go back and forth on Tong vs. McLean: Tong has more command and a better changeup while McLean has multiple standout breaking pitches.
50 FV tier
24. Carson Williams, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
25. Franklin Arias, SS, Boston Red Sox
26. Eduardo Tait, C, Minnesota Twins
27. Carson Benge, CF, New York Mets
28. Luis Pena, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
29. Bryce Eldridge, 1B, San Francisco Giants
30. Luke Keaschall, 2B, Minnesota Twins
31. Sal Stewart, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
32. Seth Hernandez, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
33. Payton Tolle, LHP, Boston Red Sox
34. Arjun Nimmala, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
35. Trey Yesavage, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
36. Bryce Rainer, SS, Detroit Tigers
37. Rainiel Rodriguez, C, St. Louis Cardinals
38. Chase DeLauter, RF, Cleveland Guardians
39. Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox
40. Liam Doyle, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals
41. Moises Ballesteros, C, Chicago Cubs
42. Angel Genao, SS, Cleveland Guardians
43. Ryan Sloan, RHP, Seattle Mariners
44. Eduardo Quintero, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers
45. George Lombard Jr., SS, New York Yankees
46. Zyhir Hope, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
47. Gage Jump, LHP, Athletics
48. Rhett Lowder, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
49. Owen Caissie, RF, Chicago Cubs
50. Josuar Gonzalez, SS, San Francisco Giants
The 55 FV tier tends to be shallower at this time of year because there has been so much movement and the top end of the list is hollowed out by graduations; over the winter another dozen or so prospects will slide up a tier.
Keaschall and Montgomery (whose season has been a rollercoaster, but he is now red-hot) should graduate soon and the majority of these players will be in the big leagues at some point next season.
Arias is a standout defender and contact hitter who needs to tap into more power but is also just 19 years old. Tait was the headliner of the Jhoan Duran trade and could hit 25-30 homers as an every-day catcher.
On the pitching side, Hernandez was the No. 5 pick in July and could move up a tier with a hot start next season while Tolle and Yesavage are arrow-up college arms from the 2024 draft who should be in the big leagues next season.
Rodriguez and Gonzalez are two of the new risers from the previous list; Rodriguez has a real shot to stick behind the plate and hit 25 homers while Gonzalez was the top signee from the January international class and has had a hot debut in the DSL. He could stick at shortstop, hit 20 homers and post plus on-base percentages, but obviously has a long way to go. I won’t project the same rise for Gonzalez as Jesus Made and Luis Pena, but those were the two standout names from the DSL at this time last year.
51. JoJo Parker, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
52. Aiva Arquette, SS, Miami Marlins
53. Slade Caldwell, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks
54. Josue Briceno, C, Detroit Tigers
55. Theo Gillen, CF, Tampa Bay Rays
56. Mike Sirota, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers
57. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF, Minnesota Twins
58. Jamie Arnold, LHP, Athletics
59. Robby Snelling, LHP, Miami Marlins
60. Khal Stephen, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
61. Troy Melton, RHP, Detroit Tigers
62. Logan Henderson, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
63. Jonny Farmelo, CF, Seattle Mariners
64. Ethan Salas, C, San Diego Padres
65. Harry Ford, C, Seattle Mariners
66. Noah Schultz, LHP, Chicago White Sox
67. Michael Arroyo, 2B, Seattle Mariners
68. Carter Jensen, C, Kansas City Royals
69. Cam Schlittler, RHP, New York Yankees
70. Luis Morales, RHP, Athletics
71. Travis Sykora, RHP, Washington Nationals
72. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
73. Alex Freeland, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
74. A.J. Ewing, CF, New York Mets
75. Cooper Pratt, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Parker and Arquette (and Carlson just below) were the top position players in the 2025 draft outside of that top tier of Holliday and Willits. Caldwell and Gillen are arrow-up prep position players from the 2024 first-round group. Arnold was a borderline shocking drop to the No. 11 pick in the 2025 draft, largely tied to how hard his fastball was hit in college, but I think he still has mid-rotation upside.
Snelling, Stephen and Henderson have all been arrow-up this year mostly due to command and execution rather than a jump in raw stuff, though Snelling’s raw stuff has been a bit better. Schlittler and Morales are in the big leagues while Tiedemann is almost back from elbow surgery and Sykora is about to undergo surgery. Schultz and Salas have had tough seasons, but the tools are still there.
76. Caleb Bonemer, SS, Chicago White Sox
77. Billy Carlson, SS, Chicago White Sox
78. Cam Caminiti, LHP, Atlanta Braves
79. Hagen Smith, LHP, Chicago White Sox
80. Didier Fuentes, RHP, Atlanta Braves
81. Spencer Jones, CF, New York Yankees
82. Connor Prielipp, LHP, Minnesota Twins
83. Brandon Sproat, RHP, New York Mets
84. Tink Hence, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
85. Emil Morales, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
86. Lazaro Montes, RF, Seattle Mariners
87. Jarlin Susana, RHP, Washington Nationals
88. Jakob Marsee, CF, Miami Marlins
89. Jefferson Rojas, SS, Chicago Cubs
90. Luke Adams, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
91. Joe Mack, C, Miami Marlins
92. Ryan Waldschmidt, LF, Arizona Diamondbacks
93. Jeferson Quero, C, Milwaukee Brewers
94. Dylan Beavers, RF, Baltimore Orioles
95. Trey Gibson, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
96. Jurrangelo Cijntje, RHP/LHP, Seattle Mariners
97. Leonardo Bernal, C, St. Louis Cardinals
98. Charlee Soto, RHP, Minnesota Twins
99. Jackson Ferris, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
100. Jaxon Wiggins, RHP, Chicago Cubs
The White Sox and Braves make up the top of this section of the list. Fuentes had a tough big league debut while Caminiti’s slider/arm speed taking one more step forward could vault him up this list. Smith, like Schultz, has had trouble throwing strikes this year, but the potential is still there. Bonemer had a loud pro debut while Carlson’s early returns will be watched closely as his age and offensive outlook put him just behind Parker and Arquette for some teams.
Jones has been red-hot of late but still has an uncertain outlook due to his long track record of contact issues and not hitting 20 homers in a season until his age-24 season. Speaking of red-hot, Marsee’s improved center-field defense, solid Triple-A showing and shocking MLB look allowed him to sneak onto the list before graduating.
Prielipp was on the shelf with elbow issues for years (30 total innings pitched in 2023-24), but now looks like a potential impact arm, likely in shorter stints. Sproat and Gibson could impact their teams early next season. Montes could hit 30 homers if it all clicks in the big leagues. Morales could be a 6-foot-3 every-day shortstop who hits 25 homers annually.
10 players in contention who weren’t on the preseason top 200
Luke Dickerson, SS, Washington Nationals
Kyle Karros, 3B, Colorado Rockies
Caden Scarborough, RHP, Texas Rangers
Edward Florentino, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Johnny King, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Jacob Reimer, 3B, New York Mets
Jhonny Level, SS, San Francisco Giants
C.J. Kayfus, 1B, Cleveland Guardians
Josh Adamczewski, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
Juneiker Caceres, RF, Cleveland Guardians
Dickerson probably isn’t a shortstop and needs to lift the ball more, but he has impact tools. Karros and Kayfus are in the big leagues, so they probably aren’t secrets. Florentino is a surprisingly polished pull-and-lift left-handed power hitter but needs to prove it at three more levels of the minors and some scouts are still dubious.
King and Scarborough could be No. 2/No. 3 starters if their command continues to improve. Caceres is showing signs of developing into a strong every-day player with 25-homer upside. Adamczewski, Level and Reimer are not long-term shortstops, but they can all stick in the infield, they can hit and they all have above-average power potential with strong performances this season.
Week 7 shook up the College Football Playoff picture. No team earned a more impactful result than Indiana, whose win at Oregon is now the best in the country during the first half of the season. Indiana’s playoff chances jumped 21%, climbing to a 93% chance to make the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff predictor.
Not only are the Hoosiers off the bubble, but Indiana also is chasing a first-round bye as one of the top four seeds, having cemented its place alongside Ohio State and Miami as one of the nation’s best teams.
Indiana wasn’t the only winner, though, as South Florida and Texas Tech both saw their playoff chances jump by at least 15%.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to-date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: Tennessee. The Vols have looked like a borderline playoff team against unranked opponents in recent weeks, beating Mississippi State and Arkansas by a combined 10 points with one overtime. Offensively they’ve been elite, averaging 300 passing and 200 rushing yards per game this season. Defensively, they need to stop the run to make a run in the SEC. They’ll have a chance against Alabama on Saturday to further legitimize their hopes. With a win, Tennessee’s chances of reaching the playoff would jump to 52%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Tennessee ranks No. 10 in ESPN’s game control metric and No. 19 in strength of record. The Vols are projected in the committee’s No. 12 spot this week, which means they would get knocked out of the actual field during the seeding process to make room for the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff, so if the fifth team is ranked outside of the committee’s top 12, its No. 12 team gets the boot.
Enigma: Texas. The Longhorns took a baby step toward a return to CFP relevance with a big win against Oklahoma, but it was their first win against a Power 4 opponent and their first against a ranked team. Texas has the 15th-most difficult remaining schedule, and with two losses is already in a precarious position. The Longhorns will play three of their next four opponents on the road (at Kentucky, Mississippi State and Georgia). There were encouraging signs from the win against the rival Sooners, from the stingy defense that flustered quarterback John Mateer all game to what looked like an improved offensive line that gave quarterback Arch Manning some time to throw. He completed 16 of 17 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown when under no duress. If Texas can continue to put it all together against the heart of its SEC schedule, it could make a run to be one of the committee’s top two-loss teams.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
On the cusp: Tennessee
Work to do: Missouri, Texas, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina
Big Ten
Spotlight: USC. The Trojans have looked like a CFP top 25 team through the first half of the season, with their only loss a close one on the road to a ranked Illinois team. In Week 7, USC’s convincing 31-13 win against Michigan pushed it into more serious Big Ten contention. Ohio State and Indiana are the leaders, followed by Oregon, but USC has the fourth-best chance (7.1%) to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics. That will change when the Trojans go to Oregon on Nov. 22, but they don’t play Ohio State or Indiana during the regular season. A win at Notre Dame on Saturday would be a significant boost to USC’s playoff résumé, while simultaneously knocking the Irish out of playoff contention. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, USC’s chances of reaching the playoff would adjust to 58% with a win against Notre Dame. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has less than a 50% chance to win its games against Notre Dame and Oregon.
Enigma: Washington. The Huskies have improved significantly and quickly under coach Jedd Fisch, who’s in his second season. Their only loss was to Ohio State, 24-6, on Sept. 27, but they lack a statement win that gives them real postseason credibility. Wins at Washington State and Maryland are certainly respectable, but bigger opportunities loom starting on Saturday at Michigan. This game has significant implications, because if the Huskies can win, they stand a strong chance of hosting Oregon as a one-loss team in the regular-season finale. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan has a 67.6% chance to win on Saturday, and Oregon has a 70% chance to beat Washington on Nov. 29. The Huskies are projected to win every other game, though. A win against Michigan could increase their playoff hopes significantly.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: USC
Work to do: Nebraska, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. Raise your hand if you had Georgia Tech at Duke on Saturday circled as a game that would impact the College Football Playoff. The Yellow Jackets would have been the next team to crack the latest CFP projection this week, and their chances of reaching the ACC championship game will skyrocket if they can win at Duke. Georgia Tech currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, Duke and Virginia. ESPN Analytics gives the Blue Devils a 61.8% chance to win. The only other projected loss on the Jackets’ schedule is the regular-season finale against Georgia. Even if Georgia Tech reaches the ACC title game and loses, it could get in as a second ACC team with a win over Georgia.
Enigma: Virginia. The Hoos have won back-to-back overtime games against Florida State and Louisville, putting themselves in contention for a spot in the ACC championship. They host a tricky Washington State team on Saturday that just gave Ole Miss a few headaches, though, and need to avoid a second loss to an unranked team. The toughest game left on their schedule is Nov. 15 at Duke. Without an ACC title, Virginia is going to have a tough time impressing the committee with a schedule that includes a loss to unranked NC State and possibly no wins against ranked opponents. It didn’t help the Hoos that Florida State lost to an unranked Pitt, as the win against the Noles was the highlight of their season so far.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Miami
On the cusp: Georgia Tech
Work to do: Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Spotlight: BYU. The Cougars needed a late-night double-overtime win at Arizona to stay undefeated, and are on the path to face Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game. The question is if they can stay undefeated until the Nov. 8 regular-season matchup against the Red Raiders. BYU has its second-most difficult remaining game on Saturday against rival Utah, which is also in contention for the Big 12 title. BYU has a slim edge at a 51% chance to win, which would be a critical cushion considering back-to-back road trips to Iowa State and Texas Tech await. The Big 12 has also gotten a boost from Cincinnati, which has a favorable remaining schedule and could be a surprise CFP top 25 team. If BYU stumbles over the next three weeks, a road win at a ranked Cincinnati team would help its résumé. Speaking of the Bearcats …
Enigma: Cincinnati. Is this team for real? The Bearcats have won five straight since their 20-17 season-opening loss to Nebraska, including three straight against Big 12 opponents Kansas, Iowa State and UCF. All three of those teams are .500 or better, and the selection committee will respect that as long as it holds. Cincinnati also has November opportunities against Utah and BYU, which could change the playoff picture in the Big 12. ESPN Analytics gives the Bearcats less than a 50% chance to beat Utah, BYU and TCU.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
On the cusp: BYU
Work to do: Cincinnati, Houston, Utah
Would be out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have the best chance to win out of any team in the FBS, with a 49% chance to finish 10-2. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Notre Dame would have a 50% chance to reach the CFP if it runs the table. That seems accurate, given the selection committee would compare Notre Dame against the other 10-2 contenders, and it’s a coin toss as to whether the room would agree that the Irish’s résumé and film make them worthy of an at-large bid. How Miami and Texas A&M fare will impact this — as will the head-to-head results if those teams don’t win their respective leagues and are also competing with the Irish for one of those at-large spots. It helps Notre Dame that opponents USC and Navy could finish as CFP top 25 teams if they continue to win. Undefeated Navy could also make a run at the Group of 5 playoff spot.
Group of 5
Spotlight: South Florida. South Florida. The Bulls are back on top after their convincing 63-36 win at previously undefeated North Texas, which just a week ago was listed here as a potential Group of 5 contender. Following the win, the Bulls’ chances of reaching the CFP increased by 20%, according to ESPN Analytics. South Florida’s lone loss was Sept. 13 at Miami, 49-12, which was a significant defeat against what could be the committee’s No. 1 team. Although that result showed the gap between the Bulls and one of the nation’s top teams, it certainly didn’t eliminate South Florida, which has one of the best overall résumés of the other contenders. With wins against Boise State, Florida and now at North Texas, this is a team that earned the edge in this week’s latest projection. Still, South Florida has the second-best chance of any Group of 5 school to reach the playoff (30%) behind Memphis (42%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Enigma: UNLV. Undefeated UNLV survived a scare from 1-5 Air Force on Saturday to stay undefeated and in contention for a playoff spot. UNLV and Boise State, both of the Mountain West Conference, are the only teams outside of the American Conference with at least a 5% chance to reach the playoff, and they play each other in a critical game on Saturday. UNLV has scored at least 30 points in each of its six games this season and is 6-0 for the first time since 1974, but it hasn’t always been pretty. UNLV scored the winning touchdown against Air Force with 36 seconds left and allowed the Falcons 603 total yards. The Rebels have the fourth-best chance to reach the playoff at 9% behind the American’s Memphis, South Florida and Tulane.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: South Florida
Work to do: Memphis, Navy, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Indiana
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Indiana
No. 10 Oklahoma/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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David Hale
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — After a week of chaos surrounding the North Carolina football program and Bill Belichick’s future in Chapel Hill, the six-time Super Bowl-winning coach denied rumors he was looking for an exit and doubled down on his belief that his “process” eventually will lead to a winning team.
“Reports about my looking for a buyout or trying to leave here is categorically false,” Belichick said. “There’s zero truth to any of that. I’m glad I’m here. We’re working toward our goals. We believe very much in the process. We need to just keep working and grinding away, and that’s exactly what we’re doing.”
Belichick said there were “things we could’ve done better” but widely praised embattled general manager Michael Lombardi as having “done a good job,” reiterated that the timing of his hire put North Carolina behind other schools in terms of talent acquisition, and said that, regardless of the on-field results for the 2-3 team, UNC has made major strides in its performance.
“It’s a learning curve,” Belichick said. “We’re all in it together. But we’re making a lot of progress, and the process will eventually produce the results we want like they have everywhere else I’ve been.”
Belichick’s Monday media session was attended by university chancellor Lee Roberts, athletics director Bubba Cunningham and a host of other high-level administrators, as well as Lombardi — something unique for a midseason news conference.
Cunningham said the school continues to support Belichick’s vision for the program, but he admitted the disappointing results have led to a lot of frustration.
“There’s a steeper learning curve than we all anticipated,” Cunningham said. “The gap between expectations and performance is more severe than what we expected, and that’s what creates a lot of attention.”
Two weeks ago, Lombardi sent a letter to donors preaching patience during a “rebuilding” process, a terminology several players pushed back on.
“It’s Coach Belichick’s first year, so I’m not surprised he’s wanting to rebuild it,” Boise State transfer Andrew Simpson said. “Wanting to grow and be better, that’s what I focus on. Just because it’s a rebuild doesn’t mean we can’t win games now. We have seven more games, and that’s what I focus on.”
Belichick downplayed any concerns about the on-field results, saying he doesn’t “have expectations other than achieving what we want to achieve every day” and reiterating he has the support of the administration.
Reports of internal strife in the locker room were also dismissed by Belichick and multiple players made available to the media Monday, with Belichick saying Lombardi, in particular, maintains close conversations with players.
Among other controversies last week, Belichick refused to comment on the suspension of assistant coach Armond Hawkins for recruiting violations, but he said a planned Hulu documentary, which had reportedly been scrapped amid the team’s bad start, would still happen in some form.
“It’s still a work in progress, and we’re working through a few logistics,” Belichick said. “But there will be something.”
North Carolina is coming off its second open date in the past three weeks and heads to Cal for the team’s first ACC road trip Friday.
Belichick said he expects an improved performance with the additional week of practice time, despite a woeful defeat against Clemson following the last open date.
“Everybody’s most interested in the final score, and I’m at the top of that list,” he said. “But it’s a process. You build a culture, you build a program, and eventually the results will come. When will that happen? Hopefully as soon as possible. We’re working hard to get there.”
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