Can DJ Lagway become Florida’s next great quarterback?
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Andrea Adelson
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — DJ Lagway has a vivid memory of one of his first visits to Florida. He remembers sitting in the quarterbacks meeting room with future first-round pick Anthony Richardson and a few other players, coach Billy Napier and assistant Ryan O’Hara.
Lagway was at the beginning of his high school quarterback career, just starting to dive into the ins and outs of what it takes to play the position. He heard them going over concepts in intricate detail, but he also saw the way the coaches taught, the way the players learned and the relationship they all had with one another.
The more he listened, the more he realized how badly he needed to be in this room himself, believing he could become elite with this type of coaching. “They were just talking and I’m like, ‘I don’t know what that is, but I’ve got to learn that,'” Lagway says.
He committed to Florida in 2022, at a time when Napier needed a big recruiting win. Though he was a toddler in Willis, Texas, when Florida had won its last national championship in 2008, Lagway grew up on stories about the Gators. He loved the colors. He loved the swagger the team played with.
His cousins used to play college football video games, and as a way to appease him, they gave him a fake controller so he could feel like he was playing with them. The first cover he remembers had Tim Tebow on it.
Lagway knew full well how much pressure comes with playing quarterback at a school that has produced three Heisman Trophy winners at the position, but he believed in what he heard in that meeting room, and he believed that Napier could help him live up to expectations. He held firm to his commitment, signed in 2023 and wowed when he played as a true freshman last season.
Now, the stage in Gainesville is his. No fake game controllers needed.
FOUR YEARS AGO, very few people outside Texas knew about Lagway. He started his freshman year at Willis High at safety, playing quarterback situationally. Once the season ended, though, he switched full time to quarterback and started working with a private coach. That summer, headed into his sophomore year, he went to a prospect camp at Texas, zero offers in hand.
Arch Manning, the No. 1 quarterback prospect in the class of 2023, was at the same camp. Lagway admits he was a bit in awe. He embraced the opportunity to learn from Texas coach Steve Sarkisian but also measure himself against some of the top quarterback prospects a year ahead of him.
“I did pretty well, actually,” Lagway says. “It let me know that I can go out there and compete with anybody. It was just fun to see how my talent stacked up with other players in the state and seeing that I can do it. With a lot of more work and a lot of more time put in, it was going to pay off.”
As a sophomore, he relied on his ability as a runner while he learned the mechanics of how to become a great passer. Lagway went to Gainesville for a visit right after that season, the first spring Napier was at Florida in 2022. Napier said he had watched the tape and saw a big, long athletic player he described as “a ball of clay” because he was just getting started at quarterback. It was a no-brainer to offer him a scholarship.
“That meant the world to me,” Lagway says.
Napier went to visit Lagway in Texas whenever he could, and the two formed a close bond. Lagway started to rise in the recruiting rankings, becoming the No. 1 dual-threat quarterback in his class. And following his junior season in 2022, Lagway committed to Florida.
He still had one year left to play in high school, and he made the most of it, throwing 58 touchdown passes and rushing for 16 more en route to Gatorade National Player of the Year honors.
But as Lagway reached new heights in 2023, Florida struggled, losing five straight to end the season. Florida recruits started to decommit, and Lagway kept getting phone calls from programs eager to flip his commitment, telling him Napier would not last long with the Gators. If Lagway changed his mind on Florida, Napier may have been on even shakier ground after going 5-7 to close out his second season as coach.
“He was in one of those ‘tip the scale’ scenarios,” Napier said. “We lost probably four or five other commits down the stretch there. We built that class around him, and if he folds his cards, then probably a lot of other kids do, too. But he stuck. He had a vision for what he wanted to do here. He has a little bit of that edge to where he feels like he could be the catalyst. He could be the one.”
Lagway says that despite the calls from other schools, he never wavered in his decision to go to Florida.
“I stayed true to my commitment because I’m a man of my word,” Lagway said. “I saw day to day how Coach Napier and Coach O’Hara coach, and I knew if I was in their system, I’d be getting developed to get to the NFL.”
Napier believes their early interest in him played a big role. So does O’Hara, the quarterbacks coach at Florida.
“He has no fear. That’s the part that I always come back to, is: ‘Why did you stay committed to us?'” O’Hara said. “He saw the vision. He believed in Napier. He believed in what I could teach him to develop at quarterback. He believed in the system. He believed in the players we were recruiting. He never flinched.
“People were throwing money at him, taking trips to see him. Some heavy hitters, really good quarterback developers. He sees Anthony get drafted, and then the development with (Graham) Mertz, and was like, ‘OK, I can go do this. I can make this my place.’ He did that last year. Now it’s his turn.”
THE AUTOGRAPHED FOOTBALL sits at the center of the table inside the quarterbacks room at the Florida football facility. O’Hara picks it up, explaining that his dad gave it to him as a gift when he was officially promoted to the position earlier this spring after serving as an offensive analyst.
O’Hara took one look at the ball, signed by the Heisman winning trio of Danny Wuerffel, Steve Spurrier and Tim Tebow, and decided it would stay in the meeting room, “just for the guys to keep the aura around, like, ‘Remember where you’re at.'”
Not that Lagway needs any reminders.
The vibes are far different than they were a year ago, when the pressure was on Napier to deliver. The plan was for Lagway to play situationally behind Mertz. But after Mertz sustained a concussion in the season opener against Miami, Lagway had his opportunity to start Week 2 against Samford.
“That whole week was a roller coaster,” Lagway said. “I was battling with some shoulder soreness, just trying to figure out what was going on with that. I wasn’t even sure I was going to play, not even sure I was going to play the season. But still being able to lock in and prepare and just give it my all, that’s what I wanted to do.”
Lagway ended up starting and set a Florida true freshman record with 456 yards passing and three touchdowns. That performance was all Florida fans had to see to double down on their belief that Lagway was the next Gators quarterback great. How did he do that with a sore shoulder? “I’m still trying to figure that out,” he says with a chuckle. Mertz went down with a season-ending knee injury against Tennessee in mid-October. Lagway entered the game and threw a 27-yard touchdown pass with 29 seconds left to send the game into overtime before Florida ultimately lost.
Three weeks later, Lagway had Florida up 10-3 on Georgia in the second quarter. But he pulled his hamstring and missed the rest of the game, and Florida lost for the seventh time in the last eight games against its rival. The injuries felt like they were piling up on Lagway, but so was the pressure he placed on himself to perform.
“That was very frustrating, because I knew how close I was to achieving something that hasn’t been achieved in a long time,” Lagway said. “This is where I kind of messed up, too. I was always looking for that big moment to make history. I wanted to be in the history books forever.”
There is still time for that, of course, but what Lagway did as a true freshman has set the stage for 2025. Lagway went 6-1 as the starter — the lone loss to Georgia, a game he did not finish. His performance also helped stabilize a program that had been teetering. Athletic director Scott Stricklin announced last November that Napier would return for Year 4.
“That decision by Scott was not about me,” Napier said. “It is more of an investment in the entire group. If we don’t have good people, then we probably do splinter. We probably do fall apart. I do think you saw the players take a deep breath and then go play the game the way it should be played down the stretch.”
Indeed, Florida finished on a four-game winning streak, including upset wins over LSU and Ole Miss with Lagway leading the charge. It was the first time since 2003 that an unranked Florida team had beaten Top 25 opponents in consecutive games.
IN JANUARY, O’HARA asked Lagway to come up with a list of goals for this season. They turned it into a PowerPoint slide and saved it, so Lagway can look at it as a reminder whenever he wants. They are keeping those goals private for now, but there is no doubting what Lagway wants: a championship.
To that end, he has spent the offseason watching tape whenever possible. “He’s obsessed with playing quarterback,” O’Hara says.
So obsessed that he texted Napier a screenshot of Kirk Cousins‘ home screen setup after watching the “Quarterback” series on Netflix and asked for the same thing so he could also watch tape like that at home. He texts O’Hara constantly with questions, videos, notes, voice memos, eager to learn as much as possible.
“The big emphasis this year is looking at defenses,” O’Hara said. “We come in here and we might watch 60 clips of one coverage and watch how it unfolds against all these concepts. That’s where he’ll be better, defensive recognition and tying that in with playing more on time from the pocket, getting the ball out quickly, being clean with his footwork and then shortening up his stroke.”
“I want to get better at the boring plays” is something Lagway says to O’Hara all the time. It is obvious how electric he can be with the ball in his hands, but O’Hara said the coaching staff has tried to emphasize to Lagway that checking down and throwing to the running back is sometimes a better option than taking off and running.
Keeping the starting quarterback healthy is obviously a necessary ingredient for any team’s success, but Florida has to be particularly mindful with Lagway. He missed spring practice after offseason core muscle surgery and struggled with shoulder soreness. He has dealt with a calf strain throughout preseason camp. Lagway says the injuries he has faced since his arrival have been frustrating, but he is trying not to dwell on them.
He has asked former Gators quarterbacks for advice. He has listened when Spurrier has walked into the quarterbacks room to go over his own mantras and best practices. Napier says Lagway is also trying to figure out how to handle his stardom on campus.
“He can’t go to the softball game without people lining up when he goes to get a drink at the concession stand,” Napier says. “He’s learning a different lifestyle in that regard. He’s navigating the injury bug. He’s navigating this superstar spotlight. He’s navigating the expectations of this season. For us, we have to help him deal with all the things that come with being the quarterback at a place like this.”
He is a celebrity, though, as much as Florida has tried to shield him from all the hype. Over the summer, he filmed a T-Mobile commercial with Patrick Mahomes and Rob Gronkowski. He has other NIL deals with Gatorade, Nintendo, Leaf Trading Cards and Lamborghini Orlando. Lagway has donated part of the money he has received through those deals to support women’s athletic programs at Florida and to start his own foundation in partnership with UF Health.
Those deals do not happen without his talent or his star power. The focus, at least to Lagway and the coaching staff, is on all the ways he can be better this season. O’Hara says Lagway’s instincts to see the field and make plays are “as pure as I’ve ever been around at any position.”
But instincts only take you so far.
“People think he’s just this big, talented dude, but he really wants to improve at every part of playing quarterback,” O’Hara says. “That’s what makes him so dangerous. He can be as good as he wants to be.”
Lagway himself says he wants to make history. There is one certain way to do that when playing quarterback at Florida: ending the recent run of mediocrity and winning a championship.
“I knew what I signed up for coming into this so I’m excited for it,” Lagway said. “It’s going to be fun.”
Sports
Red Sox in must-win mode? Are Yankees back? What you should — and shouldn’t — believe in the American League
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David Schoenfield
A few days ago, we checked in on what to believe and what not to in the National League. Well, the American League is perhaps even more chaotic.
The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are in the midst of a crucial four-game series at Yankee Stadium — with the final game on “Sunday Night Baseball” at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. Both teams will try to make a statement and inch closer to the Toronto Blue Jays at the top of the division while staying ahead in the wild-card race.
The Blue Jays had been hot — except they just lost a series to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. The Houston Astros were recently shut out three games in a row (and four out of five) but kept their slim hold on first place in the AL West because the Seattle Mariners went 2-7 on a recent road trip, including a brutal three-game wipeout in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers might be back on track, and the Kansas City Royals are suddenly surging.
Let’s check on the current states of overreaction in the AL and make some verdicts.
Overreaction: Judge! Bellinger! Stanton! The Yankees are back, baby!
Calm down there, tiger. The Yankees took two of three from Minnesota. They scored 24 runs in sweeping St. Louis, and then they bashed nine home runs in a win over Tampa Bay.
The middle of the order is leading the way. Aaron Judge is back off the injured list. Cody Bellinger has proven to be one of the most unheralded pickups of last offseason, on his way to his most home runs since his MVP season of 2019. The big shocker has been Giancarlo Stanton, though. He missed the first two-plus months of the season because of what was described as a double tennis elbow, as if he had spent the offseason working on his backhand slice, preparing for the French Open. In 46 games since returning in mid-June, he’s hitting .311/.389/..642, producing what is easily his highest OPS since his MVP season of 2017, and has been so hot that the Yankees played him a few games in right field to keep his bat in the lineup (allowing Judge to DH while working on returning to the field) even though Stanton is less mobile than the monuments in center field.
So, it has been a nice stretch after losing records in June and July. But there are still issues. Max Fried, who starts Friday night, is scuffling, with a 6.80 ERA over his past eight starts. He hasn’t had a quality start since June. The back of the bullpen is still sorting out things, as David Bednar has replaced Devin Williams as the closer (and blew the save Wednesday, although the Yankees won in extra innings), but Camilo Doval and Jake Bird, two other trade deadline acquisitions, haven’t made an impact. There could still be a terrific bullpen here, especially if Williams gets straightened out, but let’s hold off on declaring that.
And Judge still hasn’t played the outfield. Though manager Aaron Boone played Stanton in right field at Yankee Stadium, where there is less ground to cover, he hasn’t played Stanton in the field on the road, leaving him as a part-time player for now. Ryan McMahon, the team’s other big deadline move, has been getting on base but has one home run in 22 games with the Yankees.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. You can make the argument that if everything was clicking for the Yankees, they have the most upside and deepest roster in the AL: a potential ace in Fried, a potential No. 2 in Carlos Rodon, a potential wipeout bullpen, the best hitter in the sport in Judge and power up and down the lineup. They haven’t played that well against the top teams in the AL, however, including a combined 4-13 record against the Red Sox and Blue Jays, and Fried’s current struggles are a big concern. Let’s not put the Yankees in the playoffs yet.
Overreaction: The Red Sox have to win this series against the Yankees
The likeliest scenario in a four-game series between two evenly matched teams is, of course, a split. That would leave the Red Sox where they started the series, one game behind the Yankees and in third place in the AL East, but potentially in a much tighter wild-card picture. Still, after winning their first five games in August, the Red Sox went 3-7 in their past 10 games entering the Yankees series, so that makes this series a little more pressure-packed even for a late-August Red Sox-Yankees showdown.
Most frustrating, the Red Sox lost two games in extra innings in that 3-7 stretch and also lost both games that Garrett Crochet started. He had one bad start against the Houston Astros, lasting four innings in his worst start of the season, and then the bullpen blew a 3-1 lead to the Miami Marlins as Greg Weissert and Steven Matz allowed ninth-inning home runs when Aroldis Chapman was unavailable to close. Chapman had pitched the previous games and had thrown only 14 pitches over the two outings, so it was a dubious decision by manager Alex Cora (Chapman had appeared in three consecutive games earlier in the season).
One key for the Red Sox down the stretch: How much will Cora push his top pitchers? Crochet is already past his innings total of 2024 and hasn’t pitched on four days’ rest since June 18, with rest periods of seven and nine days during that span. Chapman has had a dominant season but has pitched just 48 innings in 53 appearances and has rarely made even back-to-back outings. The Yankees series begins a stretch for Boston of 13 games in 13 days and 19 in 20, so Cora will have to make some decisions with his rotation.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. Is there urgency to turn things around? Of course. Is this a do-or-die series? No, it’s still too early to make that claim, especially with the Red Sox still in a solid wild-card position (granted, chasing down the Blue Jays remains the ultimate goal). On the other hand, this eight-game road trip to New York and Baltimore looms large, given the Red Sox are just 28-34 on the road– and the Orioles have been playing better of late. A bad road trip could be disastrous. Check back next week.
Overreaction: The Blue Jays — not the Tigers — are now the best team in the AL
The Blue Jays have gone 48-26 since May 28 — the second-best record in the majors behind Milwaukee since that date. They have the highest OPS in the majors since then and only the Brewers are close to them in runs scored (Boston has scored the third-most runs and is 50 runs behind the Blue Jays since May 28). It hasn’t been just Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette either. George Springer and Addison Barger have mashed, Daulton Varsho has had a big August and role players such as Davis Schneider, Joey Loperfido, Ernie Clement and Tyler Heineman have been excellent. Toronto has a sneaky deep lineup.
Oh, and Max Scherzer has suddenly reeled off five straight quality starts.
On the other hand, the Tigers seem back on track after that stretch in July when they lost 11 of 12. They’ve won four series in a row, granted, three of those were against the Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox and diminished Minnesota Twins, but they also just swept the Astros, knocking around Framber Valdez in the series finale Wednesday and tossing shutouts in the other two wins. Charlie Morton has helped stabilize the rotation with three excellent starts in his four turns with the Tigers, and the bullpen — with added reinforcements from the trade deadline — has been much better in August after struggling in July. Kerry Carpenter has also been mashing since his return in late July.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. If you’re buying Scherzer and Eric Lauer as frontline starters and all the surprising offensive performances, then it’s not unreasonable to suggest the Blue Jays are the team to beat. Some of those offensive numbers are skewed by that crazy series at Coors Field when they scored 45 runs in three games, however, and when considering the entire season, the Tigers still have the better run differential (as do the Yankees and Red Sox). The Jays’ bandwagon is gaining momentum, but the AL still feels like one big group of teams that will all finish 92-70.
Overreaction: The Astros can’t hit, and the Mariners can’t pitch
Does anyone want to win the AL West? It doesn’t seem like it (you can even throw in the Texas Rangers, who were tied with the Mariners on July 30 but have gone 6-13 since then in playing a difficult August schedule). The Astros are hitting just .226 in August with a .649 OPS. Carlos Correa has been their best hitter, so it’s hard to criticize that trade, but Jesus Sanchez has hit .150 with one RBI for Houston while rookie Cam Smith has fallen into a slump. Getting back Yordan Alvarez, who just began a rehab assignment, will be a big lift if he’s healthy.
As for the Mariners, they have their top five starters healthy for the first time, but this road trip exposed their secret: Their rotation is vastly overrated. The Mariners are 26th in rotation ERA on the road. Bryan Woo is the only starter of those five with an ERA under 5.00 on the road. Logan Gilbert has a 2.22 ERA at home and 6.00 on the road. Luis Castillo‘s road OPS is nearly 300 points higher than it is at home. They pitch well at home because T-Mobile Park is such a pitcher-friendly park. The Mariners still have two road trips remaining: a nine-game trip to Cleveland, Tampa and Atlanta, and then a six-game trip to Kansas City and Houston.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Both concerns are legitimate. The Astros’ offense hasn’t been terrible this season, but it rates as middle of the pack, and Correa is replacing the injured Isaac Paredes, so he’s not an upgrade. Seattle’s rotation struggles on the road — and lack of bullpen depth — are perhaps an even bigger concern. The season series is tied 5-5. FanGraphs projects a dead heat for the division title. The teams will meet once more in Houston during the second-to-last weekend of the regular season — and that series might decide the AL West.
Overreaction: The Royals will make the playoffs
As the Red Sox, Astros and Mariners have stumbled over the past 10 games, it opened the door for the Royals, who won five in a row and seven of eight to inch closer in the wild-card race (with Cleveland right there, as well). Bobby Witt Jr. is raking in August, Vinnie Pasquantino has been crushing home runs and, further proof of the unpredictability of the trade deadline, Mike Yastrzemski and Adam Frazier, two seemingly minor pickups, have been outstanding.
The Royals are doing this without Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic, but Noah Cameron continues to pitch well and fellow rookie Ryan Bergert, who came over in the Freddy Fermin trade, has delivered three good starts. Just like last year’s team, the Royals have that spark of optimism rising at the right time.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. We’ll learn more about the Royals with this weekend’s series in Detroit and then the rematch next weekend in Kansas City. Otherwise, however, their schedule is pretty soft the rest of the way, including a season-ending road trip to Anaheim and Sacramento against two teams that will be playing out the string. The vibes are good. The Royals will sneak in as a wild-card team.
Sports
Overreactions to the dog days of August: Brewers’ dominance, Mets’ struggles and more from the NL
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David Schoenfield
Whew. That was some weekend. The Milwaukee Brewers kept winning — until they finally lost. The New York Mets kept losing — until they finally won. The Los Angeles Dodgers made a big statement, the Philadelphia Phillies suffered a crushing injury, and the Chicago Cubs managed to win a series even though their bats remain cold.
What’s going on with these National League contenders? With fan bases in euphoria or despair, let’s make some verdicts on those current states of overreaction.
Overreaction: The Brewers are unquestionably MLB’s best team
“Unquestionably” is a loaded word, especially since we’re writing this right after the Brewers reeled off 14 consecutive victories and won a remarkable 29 of 33 games. They became just the 11th team this century to win at least 14 in a row, and you don’t fluke your way to a 14-game winning streak: Each of the previous 10 teams to win that many in a row made the playoffs, and four won 100 games. Baseball being baseball, however, none won the World Series.
The Brewers were just the sixth team this century to win 29 of 33. Cleveland won 30 of 33 in 2017, riding a 22-game winning streak that began in late August. That team, which finished with 102 wins but lost the wild-card series to the New York Yankees, resembled these Brewers as a small-market, scrappy underdog. The Dodgers in 2017 and 2022 and the A’s in 2001 and 2002 also won 29 of 33. None of these teams won the World Series, either.
For the season, the Brewers have five more wins than the Detroit Tigers while easily leading the majors in run differential at plus-168, with the Cubs a distant second at plus-110. Those figures seem to suggest the Brewers are clearly the best team, with a nice balance of starting pitching (No. 1 in ERA), relief pitching (No. 10 in ERA and No. 8 in win probability added), offense (No. 1 in runs scored), defense (No. 7 in defensive runs saved) and baserunning (No. 2 in stolen bases). None of their position players were All-Stars, but other than shortstop Joey Ortiz the Brewers roll out a lineup that usually features eight average-or-better hitters, with Christian Yelich heating up and Andrew Vaughn on a tear since he joined the club.
On the other hand, via Clay Davenport’s third-order wins and losses, which project a team’s winning percentage based on underlying statistics adjusted for quality of opponents, the Brewers are neck-and-neck with the Cubs, with both teams a few projected wins behind the Yankees. Essentially, the Brewers have scored more runs and allowed fewer than might otherwise be expected based on statistics. Indeed, the Brewers lead the majors with a .288 average with runners in scoring position while holding their opponents to the third-lowest average with runners in scoring position.
Those underlying stats, though, include the first four games of the season, when the Brewers went 0-4 and allowed 47 runs. Several of those relievers who got pounded early on are no longer in the bullpen, and ever since the Brewers sorted out their relief arms, the pen has been outstanding: It’s sixth in ERA and third in lowest OPS allowed since May 1.
Then factor in that the Brewers now have Brandon Woodruff and Jacob Misiorowski in the rotation (although Misiorowski struggled in his last start following a two-week stint on the injured list). The Brewers are also the best baserunning team in the majors, which leads to a few extra runs above expectation.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Brewers look like the most well-rounded team in the majors, particularly if Yelich and Vaughn keep providing power in the middle of the order. They have played well against good teams: 6-0 against the Dodgers, 3-0 against the Phillies and Boston Red Sox, 4-2 against the New York Mets and 7-3 against the Cincinnati Reds. They’re 5-4 against the Cubs with four games left in the five-game series. None of this guarantees a World Series, but they’re on pace to win 100 games because they are the best team going right now.
Overreaction: Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s struggles are a big concern
On July 30, PCA went 3-for-4 with two doubles and two runs in a 10-3 victory for the Cubs over the Brewers. He was hitting .272/.309/.559, playing electrifying defense in center field, and was the leader in the NL MVP race with 5.7 fWAR, more than a win higher than Fernando Tatis Jr. and Shohei Ohtani. The Brewers had started to get hot, but the Cubs, after leading the NL Central most of the season, were just a game behind in the standings.
July 31 was an off day. Then the calendar flipped to August and Crow-Armstrong entered a slump that has featured no dying quails, no gorks, no ground balls with eyes. He’s 8-for-52 in August with no home runs, one RBI and two runs scored. The Cubs, averaging 5.3 runs per game through the end of July, are at just 2.75 runs per game in August and have seen the Brewers build a big lead in the division.
Crow-Armstrong’s slump isn’t necessarily a surprise. Analysts have been predicting regression for some time due to one obvious flaw in PCA’s game: He swings at everything. He has the fifth-highest chase rate among qualified batters, swinging at over 42% of pitches out of the strike zone. It seemed likely that it was only a matter of time before pitchers figured out how to exploit Crow-Armstrong’s aggressiveness.
Doubling down on the regression predictions, PCA has produced strong power numbers despite a below-average hard-hit rate (44th percentile) and average exit velocity (47th percentile). Although raw power isn’t always necessary to produce extra-base power — see Jose Altuve — those metrics were a red flag that PCA might have been overachieving.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. OK, here’s the odd thing: PCA’s chase rate has improved in August to just 28%, but that hasn’t translated to success. His hard-hit rate isn’t much lower than it was the rest of the season (although his average fly ball distance has dropped about 20 feet). His struggles against left-handers are real: After slugging .600 against them in April, he has hit .186 and slugged .390 against them since May 1. He’ll start hitting again at some point, but it’s reasonable to assume he’s not going to hit like he did from April through July.
It’s not all on PCA, however. Kyle Tucker has been just as bad in August (.148, no home runs, one RBI). Michael Busch is hitting .151. Seiya Suzuki has only one home run. Those four had carried the offense, and all are scuffling at once. For the Cubs to rebound, they need this entire group to get back on track. Put it this way: The Cubs have won just three of their past eight series — and those were against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox.
Overreaction: The Mets are doomed and will miss the playoffs
On July 27, the Mets completed a three-game sweep of the San Francisco Giants to improve to 62-44, holding a 1½-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East. According to FanGraphs, New York’s odds of winning the division stood at 55% and its chances of making the playoffs were nearly 97%. A few days later, the Mets reinforced the bullpen — the club’s biggest weakness — with Ryan Helsley and Tyler Rogers at the trade deadline (after already acquiring Gregory Soto).
It’s never that easy with the Mets though, is it? The San Diego Padres swept them. The Cleveland Guardians swept them. The Brewers swept them. Helsley lost three games and blew a lead in another outing. The rotation has a 6.22 ERA in August. The Mets lost 14 of 16 before finally taking the final two games against the Seattle Mariners this past weekend to temporarily ease the panic level from DEFCON 1 to DEFCON 2. The Phillies have a comfortable lead in the division and the Mets have dropped to the third wild-card position, just one game ahead of the Reds. The team with the highest payroll in the sport is in very real danger of missing the playoffs.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. The bullpen issues are still a concern given Helsley’s struggles, and Rogers has fanned just one of the 42 batters he has faced since joining the Mets. Still, this team is loaded with talent, as reflected in FanGraphs’ playoffs odds, which gave the Mets an 86% chance of making the postseason entering Monday (with the Reds at 14%). One note, however: The Reds lead the season series 2 games to 1, which gives them the tiebreaker edge if the teams finish with the same record. A three-game set in Cincinnati in early September looms as one of the biggest series the rest of the season. Mets fans have certainly earned the right to brood over the team’s current state of play, but the team remains favored to at least squeak out a wild card.
Overreaction: Zack Wheeler’s absence is a big problem for the Phillies
The Phillies’ ace just went on the IL because of a blood clot near his right shoulder, with no timetable on a potential return. The injury is serious enough that his availability for the rest of the season is in jeopardy. Manager Rob Thomson said the team has enough rotation depth to battle on without Wheeler, but there are some other issues there as well:
• Ranger Suarez has a 5.86 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break.
• Aaron Nola was activated from the IL on Sunday to replace Wheeler for his first MLB start in three months and gave up six runs in 2⅓ innings, raising his season ERA to 6.92.
• Taijuan Walker has a 3.34 ERA but also a 4.73 FIP and probably isn’t someone you would feel comfortable starting in a playoff series.
• Even Jesus Luzardo has been inconsistent all season, with a 4.21 ERA.
Minus Wheeler, that arguably leaves Cristopher Sanchez as the team’s only sure-thing reliable starter at the moment. Though a trip to the playoffs certainly looks secure, all this opens the door for the Mets to make it a race for the division title.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Making the playoffs is one thing, but it’s also about peaking at the right time, and given the scary nature of Wheeler’s injury, the Phillies might not end up peaking when they need to. Nola certainly can’t be counted on right now and Suarez has suddenly struggled a bit to miss bats. There’s time here for Nola and Suarez to fix things, and the bullpen has been strengthened with the additions of Jhoan Duran and David Robertson, but even with Wheeler, the Phillies are just 22-18 since the beginning of July. Indeed, their ultimate hopes might rest on an offense that has let them down the past two postseasons and hasn’t been great this season aside from Kyle Schwarber. If they don’t score runs, it won’t matter who is on the mound.
Overreaction: The Dodgers just buried the Padres with their three-game sweep
It was a statement series: The Dodgers, battled, bruised and slumping, had fallen a game behind the Padres in the NL West. But they swept the Padres at Dodger Stadium behind stellar outings from Clayton Kershaw and Blake Snell, and a clutch Mookie Betts home run to cap a rally from a 4-0 deficit. Still the kings of the NL West, right?
After all, the Dodgers are finally rolling out that dream rotation: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Snell and Kershaw are all healthy and at full strength for the first time this season. Only Roki Sasaki is missing. Yamamoto has been solid all season, Ohtani ramped up to 80 pitches in his last start, Glasnow has a 2.50 ERA since returning from the IL in July, Snell has reeled off back-to-back scoreless starts, and even Kershaw, while not racking up many strikeouts, has lowered his season ERA to 3.01. That group should carry the Dodgers to their 12th division title in the past 13 seasons.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. Calm down. One great series does not mean the Dodgers are suddenly fixed or that the Padres will fade away. The Dodgers’ bullpen is still battling injuries, Betts still has a sub-.700 OPS and injuries have forced them to play Alex Freeland, Miguel Rojas and Buddy Kennedy in the infield. Check back after next weekend, when the Padres host the Dodgers for their final regular-season series of 2025.
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