Overreactions to the dog days of August: Brewers’ dominance, Mets’ struggles and more from the NL
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David Schoenfield
Whew. That was some weekend. The Milwaukee Brewers kept winning — until they finally lost. The New York Mets kept losing — until they finally won. The Los Angeles Dodgers made a big statement, the Philadelphia Phillies suffered a crushing injury, and the Chicago Cubs managed to win a series even though their bats remain cold.
What’s going on with these National League contenders? With fan bases in euphoria or despair, let’s make some verdicts on those current states of overreaction.
Overreaction: The Brewers are unquestionably MLB’s best team
“Unquestionably” is a loaded word, especially since we’re writing this right after the Brewers reeled off 14 consecutive victories and won a remarkable 29 of 33 games. They became just the 11th team this century to win at least 14 in a row, and you don’t fluke your way to a 14-game winning streak: Each of the previous 10 teams to win that many in a row made the playoffs, and four won 100 games. Baseball being baseball, however, none won the World Series.
The Brewers were just the sixth team this century to win 29 of 33. Cleveland won 30 of 33 in 2017, riding a 22-game winning streak that began in late August. That team, which finished with 102 wins but lost the wild-card series to the New York Yankees, resembled these Brewers as a small-market, scrappy underdog. The Dodgers in 2017 and 2022 and the A’s in 2001 and 2002 also won 29 of 33. None of these teams won the World Series, either.
For the season, the Brewers have five more wins than the Detroit Tigers while easily leading the majors in run differential at plus-168, with the Cubs a distant second at plus-110. Those figures seem to suggest the Brewers are clearly the best team, with a nice balance of starting pitching (No. 1 in ERA), relief pitching (No. 10 in ERA and No. 8 in win probability added), offense (No. 1 in runs scored), defense (No. 7 in defensive runs saved) and baserunning (No. 2 in stolen bases). None of their position players were All-Stars, but other than shortstop Joey Ortiz the Brewers roll out a lineup that usually features eight average-or-better hitters, with Christian Yelich heating up and Andrew Vaughn on a tear since he joined the club.
On the other hand, via Clay Davenport’s third-order wins and losses, which project a team’s winning percentage based on underlying statistics adjusted for quality of opponents, the Brewers are neck-and-neck with the Cubs, with both teams a few projected wins behind the Yankees. Essentially, the Brewers have scored more runs and allowed fewer than might otherwise be expected based on statistics. Indeed, the Brewers lead the majors with a .288 average with runners in scoring position while holding their opponents to the third-lowest average with runners in scoring position.
Those underlying stats, though, include the first four games of the season, when the Brewers went 0-4 and allowed 47 runs. Several of those relievers who got pounded early on are no longer in the bullpen, and ever since the Brewers sorted out their relief arms, the pen has been outstanding: It’s sixth in ERA and third in lowest OPS allowed since May 1.
Then factor in that the Brewers now have Brandon Woodruff and Jacob Misiorowski in the rotation (although Misiorowski struggled in his last start following a two-week stint on the injured list). The Brewers are also the best baserunning team in the majors, which leads to a few extra runs above expectation.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Brewers look like the most well-rounded team in the majors, particularly if Yelich and Vaughn keep providing power in the middle of the order. They have played well against good teams: 6-0 against the Dodgers, 3-0 against the Phillies and Boston Red Sox, 4-2 against the New York Mets and 7-3 against the Cincinnati Reds. They’re 5-4 against the Cubs with four games left in the five-game series. None of this guarantees a World Series, but they’re on pace to win 100 games because they are the best team going right now.
Overreaction: Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s struggles are a big concern
On July 30, PCA went 3-for-4 with two doubles and two runs in a 10-3 victory for the Cubs over the Brewers. He was hitting .272/.309/.559, playing electrifying defense in center field, and was the leader in the NL MVP race with 5.7 fWAR, more than a win higher than Fernando Tatis Jr. and Shohei Ohtani. The Brewers had started to get hot, but the Cubs, after leading the NL Central most of the season, were just a game behind in the standings.
July 31 was an off day. Then the calendar flipped to August and Crow-Armstrong entered a slump that has featured no dying quails, no gorks, no ground balls with eyes. He’s 8-for-52 in August with no home runs, one RBI and two runs scored. The Cubs, averaging 5.3 runs per game through the end of July, are at just 2.75 runs per game in August and have seen the Brewers build a big lead in the division.
Crow-Armstrong’s slump isn’t necessarily a surprise. Analysts have been predicting regression for some time due to one obvious flaw in PCA’s game: He swings at everything. He has the fifth-highest chase rate among qualified batters, swinging at over 42% of pitches out of the strike zone. It seemed likely that it was only a matter of time before pitchers figured out how to exploit Crow-Armstrong’s aggressiveness.
Doubling down on the regression predictions, PCA has produced strong power numbers despite a below-average hard-hit rate (44th percentile) and average exit velocity (47th percentile). Although raw power isn’t always necessary to produce extra-base power — see Jose Altuve — those metrics were a red flag that PCA might have been overachieving.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. OK, here’s the odd thing: PCA’s chase rate has improved in August to just 28%, but that hasn’t translated to success. His hard-hit rate isn’t much lower than it was the rest of the season (although his average fly ball distance has dropped about 20 feet). His struggles against left-handers are real: After slugging .600 against them in April, he has hit .186 and slugged .390 against them since May 1. He’ll start hitting again at some point, but it’s reasonable to assume he’s not going to hit like he did from April through July.
It’s not all on PCA, however. Kyle Tucker has been just as bad in August (.148, no home runs, one RBI). Michael Busch is hitting .151. Seiya Suzuki has only one home run. Those four had carried the offense, and all are scuffling at once. For the Cubs to rebound, they need this entire group to get back on track. Put it this way: The Cubs have won just three of their past eight series — and those were against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox.
Overreaction: The Mets are doomed and will miss the playoffs
On July 27, the Mets completed a three-game sweep of the San Francisco Giants to improve to 62-44, holding a 1½-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East. According to FanGraphs, New York’s odds of winning the division stood at 55% and its chances of making the playoffs were nearly 97%. A few days later, the Mets reinforced the bullpen — the club’s biggest weakness — with Ryan Helsley and Tyler Rogers at the trade deadline (after already acquiring Gregory Soto).
It’s never that easy with the Mets though, is it? The San Diego Padres swept them. The Cleveland Guardians swept them. The Brewers swept them. Helsley lost three games and blew a lead in another outing. The rotation has a 6.22 ERA in August. The Mets lost 14 of 16 before finally taking the final two games against the Seattle Mariners this past weekend to temporarily ease the panic level from DEFCON 1 to DEFCON 2. The Phillies have a comfortable lead in the division and the Mets have dropped to the third wild-card position, just one game ahead of the Reds. The team with the highest payroll in the sport is in very real danger of missing the playoffs.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. The bullpen issues are still a concern given Helsley’s struggles, and Rogers has fanned just one of the 42 batters he has faced since joining the Mets. Still, this team is loaded with talent, as reflected in FanGraphs’ playoffs odds, which gave the Mets an 86% chance of making the postseason entering Monday (with the Reds at 14%). One note, however: The Reds lead the season series 2 games to 1, which gives them the tiebreaker edge if the teams finish with the same record. A three-game set in Cincinnati in early September looms as one of the biggest series the rest of the season. Mets fans have certainly earned the right to brood over the team’s current state of play, but the team remains favored to at least squeak out a wild card.
Overreaction: Zack Wheeler’s absence is a big problem for the Phillies
The Phillies’ ace just went on the IL because of a blood clot near his right shoulder, with no timetable on a potential return. The injury is serious enough that his availability for the rest of the season is in jeopardy. Manager Rob Thomson said the team has enough rotation depth to battle on without Wheeler, but there are some other issues there as well:
• Ranger Suarez has a 5.86 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break.
• Aaron Nola was activated from the IL on Sunday to replace Wheeler for his first MLB start in three months and gave up six runs in 2⅓ innings, raising his season ERA to 6.92.
• Taijuan Walker has a 3.34 ERA but also a 4.73 FIP and probably isn’t someone you would feel comfortable starting in a playoff series.
• Even Jesus Luzardo has been inconsistent all season, with a 4.21 ERA.
Minus Wheeler, that arguably leaves Cristopher Sanchez as the team’s only sure-thing reliable starter at the moment. Though a trip to the playoffs certainly looks secure, all this opens the door for the Mets to make it a race for the division title.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Making the playoffs is one thing, but it’s also about peaking at the right time, and given the scary nature of Wheeler’s injury, the Phillies might not end up peaking when they need to. Nola certainly can’t be counted on right now and Suarez has suddenly struggled a bit to miss bats. There’s time here for Nola and Suarez to fix things, and the bullpen has been strengthened with the additions of Jhoan Duran and David Robertson, but even with Wheeler, the Phillies are just 22-18 since the beginning of July. Indeed, their ultimate hopes might rest on an offense that has let them down the past two postseasons and hasn’t been great this season aside from Kyle Schwarber. If they don’t score runs, it won’t matter who is on the mound.
Overreaction: The Dodgers just buried the Padres with their three-game sweep
It was a statement series: The Dodgers, battled, bruised and slumping, had fallen a game behind the Padres in the NL West. But they swept the Padres at Dodger Stadium behind stellar outings from Clayton Kershaw and Blake Snell, and a clutch Mookie Betts home run to cap a rally from a 4-0 deficit. Still the kings of the NL West, right?
After all, the Dodgers are finally rolling out that dream rotation: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Snell and Kershaw are all healthy and at full strength for the first time this season. Only Roki Sasaki is missing. Yamamoto has been solid all season, Ohtani ramped up to 80 pitches in his last start, Glasnow has a 2.50 ERA since returning from the IL in July, Snell has reeled off back-to-back scoreless starts, and even Kershaw, while not racking up many strikeouts, has lowered his season ERA to 3.01. That group should carry the Dodgers to their 12th division title in the past 13 seasons.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. Calm down. One great series does not mean the Dodgers are suddenly fixed or that the Padres will fade away. The Dodgers’ bullpen is still battling injuries, Betts still has a sub-.700 OPS and injuries have forced them to play Alex Freeland, Miguel Rojas and Buddy Kennedy in the infield. Check back after next weekend, when the Padres host the Dodgers for their final regular-season series of 2025.
We’re back! It’s the race that stops the nation and, in 2025, it’s shaping to be another classic. Vauban returns for a third attempt under a new camp, alongside former stablemate Absurde. Champion trainer Chris Waller dominates the field with five runners, while history will be made with the first-ever American-trained horse taking part. Half Yours is the favourite and will fly the flag for the locals.
But outside of that, there are plenty more races to sink your teeth into. Not sure who to back? Not to worry, as we take you through the best selections and some value runners in Tuesday’s 10-race card at the glorious Flemington racecourse.
TAB fixed odds correct as of 9am AEDT, 3rd November, 2025 (please visit tab.com.au for the latest).
RACE 1 – Darley Maribyrnong Plate (1000m), 10:45am
With only three of the 14 runners having race experience and the track set to be rain-affected, this is a tough way to kick off Cup Day. On exposed form, Tornado Valley was held up at a key stage in the Debutant Stakes but hit the line strongly once clear behind Free Flying. Among the unraced brigade, Carnevale and Diameter have shown glimpses in jump outs and could be anything on debut, while Brazen Dechambeau displayed a nice turn of foot when asked for an effort in his Cranbourne jumpout.
Top selections:
2. Tornado Valley ($7.00)
3. Brazen Dechambeau ($7.00)
5. Diameter ($6.00)
4. Carnevale ($4.80)
8. Free Flying ($11.00)
RACE 2 – MA Services Grand Handicap (2000m), 11:20am
It’s hard to go past Makdane, who’s in good form, maps nicely from barrier 1, and should handle the soft ground. Brave Miss will make her own luck up on speed, her last-start win at Cranbourne looks strong, and she finished third behind She’s A Hustler prior to that, who franked the form with a Group 3 Tesio Stakes win on Cox Plate Day. Party Crasher can be forgiven for the first-up run and I expect him to improve rising in distance second-up.
Top selections:
3. Makdane ($3.90)
7. Brave Miss ($6.50)
10. Party Crasher ($7.00)
14. Giggenbach ($7.50)
RACE 3 – TAB Trophy (1800m), 12:00pm
There looks to be a fair bit of value here. I’ve got Snitz Sonic on top, he’s been the strongest late in both of his runs and couldn’t have been more emphatic in his Echuca win. Arabian Prince was unlucky not to get a start in the 2500m Victoria Derby but will instead race at 1800m, he did seem to peak on his run late in the Caulfield Classic but profiles to be a contender here. Champagne Hero and Different Gravy both look like they have a bit to offer, and Island Boy looks a sneaky chance at big odds.
Top selections:
8. Snitz Sonic ($11.00)
9. Arabian Prince ($3.80)
3. Champagne Hero ($4.60)
4. Different Gravy ($4.60)
6. Island Boy ($41.00)
READ: 2025 Melbourne Cup field – complete guide
RACE 4 – The Schweppervescence Plate (1000m), 12:40pm
Bold Secret is having his third start for Phillip Stokes and looks to have plenty of upside. He was strong late off a slow tempo on debut, clocking the fastest final 200m of the race, before enduring a tough run wide without cover at The Valley. Drawn to get a softer run this time. Pallaton has been tackling stronger company than this, gets James McDonald on, and is a clear danger. As it Street Artist who is flying with consecutive wins for Team Freedman and warrants respect again.
Top selections:
9. Bold Secret ($9.00)
4. Street Artist ($4.40)
2. Pallaton ($2.70)
1. Aleppo Pine ($7.50)
RACE 5 – Australian Heritage Cup (2800m), 1:20pm
Golden Century looks ready to step up to 2800m and he’s a big-striding horse who will appreciate the big Flemington track over the tighter Caulfield circuit, where he was back in the field but closed off well last time out. Drops sharply in weight from that and looks a major player with Joao Moreira aboard. Don Diego De Vega was solid hitting the line for fourth in the Bendigo Cup, and while his Randwick run prior was below par, he hasn’t been suited by the slow tempos in recent starts. Draws kindly and handles soft ground.
Top selections:
10. Golden Century ($4.80)
3. Don Diego De Vega ($8.50)
9. Litzdeel ($4.40)
8. Arugamama ($6.50)
RACE 6 – Kirin Ichiban Plate (1800m), 1:55pm
Saint George was the eye-catcher first-up at Seymour and looks set to take big improvement from that run. The long Flemington straight plays perfectly to his strengths and, at his best, he’s more than capable of winning a race like this. Apulia was outstanding resuming after a year off, storming home from the back of the field to win and should only be fitter here. Athanatos is in terrific form this prep and his Toorak Handicap effort behind the likes of Leica Lucy, Evaporate, and Transatlantic reads well for this grade. The only query is how he handles the likely wet track.
Top selections:
5. Saint George ($4.40)
2. Apulia ($6.50)
6. Athanatos ($5.00)
3. Kingswood ($4.60)
RACE 7 – Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m), 3:00pm
Once again, the Caulfield Cup looms as the key form reference, and it’s a race that produced several eye-catching performances. You couldn’t miss the big grey Presage Nocturne charging down the outside there. The French import is certain to improve off that run and should relish the step to 3200m at Flemington. He handles rain-affected ground, and while others may feel the pinch late, he’s proven to be able to power through the line at the end of a staying trip.
Valiant King was another standout from that race and is absolutely flying this campaign. A completely different horse this prep with the blinkers on, he was brilliant winning the Bart Cummings before unleashing the fastest closing splits in the Caulfield Cup. He gets in with a nice weight and maps for a soft run. As does Caulfield Cup winner Half Yours who deserves favouritism despite being up for a long campaign which began in a BM64 back in March. Tony and Calvin McEvoy have managed him superbly and set him to peak in the 2400m race so as much as the Melbourne Cup appears a bit of an afterthought, his wet-track ability, light weight and good draw makes him a winning chance again. Absurde returns for a third attempt at the Cup and was travelling well before being blocked for a run at his Caulfield tune-up. He was luckless last year when held up multiple times in the straight, but we know he stays, handles soft going, and maps ideally from gate four.
The Joseph O’Brien-trained Al Riffa is this year’s big boom horse. The Irish raider comes off wins in both the Irish St Leger and Curragh Cup and clearly brings elite European form. He’s earned the top weight (59kg) and history says that’s a brutal task, especially over two miles on rain-affected ground from a wide draw, but class can often defy history, and he has that in spades. The main challenge will be conceding weight to several in-form, lightly-weighted rivals.
Lightly-raced northern hemisphere three-year-old Furthur has had just eight starts and beats the handicapper with 52kg. He fits the successful profile of past winners like Rekindling and Cross Counter, as well as desperately-unlucky 2019 runner Il Paradiso. He displayed a devastating turn of foot when winning the Geoffrey Freer Stakes over 2715m two starts back, a race that has been a solid guide for the Melbourne Cup in past years. There’s a wet track query with him but he’s a good enough price to find out if he can handle it.
Buckaroo brings class and proven Group 1 Australian weight-for-age form, but the 3200m remains a genuine query and he’ll need a perfect ride to figure. German stayer Flatten The Curve is an interesting roughie in red-hot form winning six of his past seven races, and while the strength of that form is hard to line up, he’s a genuine two-miler and could surprise at decent odds. And Vauban — now under the care of Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott — while plain in the Caulfield Cup, is back on a more suitable Flemington track, gets rain-affected going, has drawn in barrier two with Blake Shinn on, and is more than capable of bouncing back.
Top selections:
6. Presage Nocturne ($9.00)
24. Valiant King ($8.50)
1. Al Riffa ($9.00)
9. Absurde ($18.00)
14. Half Yours ($7.00)
Best roughie:
17. Furthur ($26.00)
READ: 2025 Melbourne Cup field – complete guide
RACE 8 – The Amanda Elliott (1400m), 3:50pm
Ludlum was luckless on debut behind Tres Magnifique before winning a maiden at Seymour, doing it tough three wide without cover but still proving too strong. Navy Pilot was a second-up winner powering past key rival Bacash, and while he didn’t see out the mile in the Caulfield Guineas, the drop back to 1400m looks ideal. Bacash continues to hold his form well, he’s a proven wet tracker and was a dominant winner at this trip last start at Caulfield. Burma Star has won in heavy conditions and has been hitting the line well. This is tougher but he’s right in the mix.
Top selections:
15. Ludlum ($5.00)
2. Navy Pilot ($6.50)
4. Bacash ($5.50)
8. Burma Star ($9.00)
RACE 9 – The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (1400m), 4:35pm
Surfin’ Bird was an arrogant winner at Caulfield last start, surging past her rivals to win by four lengths despite covering extra ground throughout, and she did it in very quick time. She’s clearly the one to beat and might simply be too good again. Pondalowie looks terrific value though as an each-way play. She’s improved with every run this prep, running the fastest last 200m at Group 2 level third-up before again closing strongly in the Vase behind Oh Too Good. She tends to get back in her races but has a blistering turn of foot and runs well at Flemington.
Top selections:
14. Pondalowie ($17.00)
15. Surfin’ Bird ($2.60)
10. Gumdrops ($7.50)
5. Bossy Nic ($13.00)
RACE 10 – Channel 9 Trophy (1400m), 5:15pm
Sabaj had no luck in the Silver Eagle. He was held up until the 100m and should have finished a lot closer to the classy Linebacker at Randwick. That’s elite form and with clear running he should be too good for these. I do have a of time for Sunshineinmypocket who had excuses last start behind Ndola. He was able to close off well with the fastest final furlong of the race and I think he can turn the tables on the winner.
Top selections:
8. Sabaj ($2.70)
7. Sunshineinmypocket ($7.00)
3. Ndola ($6.00)
12. Persian Spirit ($8.00)
Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola has a broken right fibula, sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel on Sunday, and will sit out the remainder of the season.
Raiola suffered the injury while being sacked and losing a fumble early in the third quarter of Saturday’s 21-17 loss to USC.
After the game, Cornhuskers coach Matt Rhule told reporters that Raiola wanted to return to the game, but the sophomore couldn’t run so Rhule decided it was unsafe to send him back in.
Raiola completed 10 of 15 passes against the Trojans for 91 yards and a touchdown before the injury. He was replaced by true freshman TJ Lateef, who went 5-of-7 for 7 yards and rushed for 18 yards on six carries.
Raiola had completed 72.4% of his passes for 2,000 yards and 18 touchdowns through nine games this season. He has been intercepted six times.
The Huskers (6-3, 3-3 Big Ten) lost their 29th consecutive game to an AP Top 25 opponent, a streak that dates to 2016. They will go on the road to face UCLA next Saturday.
ESPN’s Max Olson and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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