NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Diego Pavia threw for 160 yards and a score and ran for 86 yards and two more touchdowns as No. 17 Vanderbilt beat 10th-ranked LSU 31-24 on Saturday to snap a 10-game skid against the Tigers.

Pavia, who entered the game with odds of 150-1 to win the Heisman Trophy at ESPN BET, capped his 21-yard touchdown run at the end of the third quarter by striking a Heisman Trophy pose in the end zone.

Vanderbilt beat LSU for the first time since 1990 in what was the fourth meeting since 1947 with both schools ranked in the AP poll.

Pavia has had a passing or rushing touchdown in 25 straight games — the second-longest active streak in FBS behind FSU’s Tommy Castellanos (27). He now has 13 wins as the Vanderbilt starting quarterback. Before Pavia’s arrival, the Commodores had 12 wins total from 2019 to 2023.

The Commodores earned their second win against a top-15 ranked opponent this season — a first in program history — while improving to 6-1 for the first time since 1950. The 31 points was the third most in program history against a top-10 opponent.

The Tigers (5-2, 2-2) had some big plays, with Garrett Nussmeier throwing for 225 yards and two TDs, including a 62-yarder to Zavion Thomas. Caden Durham also had a 51-yard run down to the Vandy 2 before the Commodores forced LSU to settle for one of four field goal attempts.

“We had opportunities, we didn’t cash in on them,” LSU coach Brian Kelly said.

It wasn’t enough against a Vanderbilt offense that came in seventh in the nation averaging 43.2 points a game. The Commodores scored the most points LSU has given up this season with its defense ranked fifth in the country and allowing just 11.8 points a game.

Vanderbilt punted only twice, both times in the fourth quarter.

LSU’s best chance came after the first Vandy punt when it was trailing 31-24 with 8:55 left. Zaylin Wood sacked Nussmeier on the first play. LSU had to punt the ball back three plays later and never threatened after that.

The Tigers struggled to run against a Commodores defense that came in ranked 16th nationally. LSU settled for too many field goals by Damian Ramos, who made kicks of 48, 42 and 23 yards. He missed a 52-yarder.

After the final second ticked off, Vanderbilt started the celebration by playing “Callin’ Baton Rouge” on the stadium speakers while safely protecting both goalposts. The Commodores host No. 16 Missouri next week, while LSU visits No. 4 Texas A&M.

ESPN Research and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Let’s ignore the fact that the 2025 MLB playoffs began on the last day of September and might end on the first day of November — because it’s always October when it comes to playoff baseball — and ask this: Who is this year’s Mr. October?

We last checked in after the LDS round, and things have changed, not the least of which is that we’re now down to the last three teams still vying for a World Series crown. Our leader last time was the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ Roki Sasaki and while that’s no longer the case, Los Angeles’ collective playoff blitz still paints the leaderboard a vivid Dodger Blue.

At least that’s the answer through the rubric of Win Probability Added (WPA, a metric that’s been around for a while now and has a lot of utility in putting numbers to the narratives that emerge as the October bracket plays out.)

Between Shohei Ohtani‘s unprecedented performance in the Dodgers’ Game 4 win to close out the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Championship Series and the ongoing dominance of the L.A. rotation, led by Blake Snell, this WPA exercise has a chance to reverberate beyond the crucible of this one postseason. There is potentially historic stuff happening. Let’s dig in.

Jump to:
Methodology | Top 5 | WPA hero of the day
Top 10 for eliminated players | Ohtani tracker | The all-time WPA champs

Methodology

The way WPA works is that play-by-play during a game, if you do something that improves your team’s chances to win, you get a positive credit. If you don’t, it’s a negative. In small samples, one play can have an outsized effect on WPA. A grand slam in a 10-0 game? Great for your stat line, but the blast does little to change the game’s outcome. Hit the same homer with your team down 3-0 in the eighth, and you’ve made some history. Because of that, there is a bias toward players who end up in a lot of close games — but only if they come through.

All we’ve done here is to marry the hitting and pitching versions of WPA together based on the version of the system at Baseball-Reference.com. Why add pitching and hitting WPA together in 2025, the era of the universal DH?

Well, you know why — Mr. Ohtani — and it was his historic debut as a two-way postseason player this season that inspired us to watch the WPA results a little more closely this October. Ohtani had been pretty quiet during this postseason, but his epic Game 4 against the Brewers shows why we wanted to track this.

Top 5 alive

Best postseason WPAs from players on teams still playing

1. Blake Snell, Dodgers | 1.203

Snell’s .622 WPA showing from his Game 1 masterpiece against Milwaukee is easily the best score from any player so far this postseason. Whereas Ohtani’s two-way brilliance in the clincher of that series came in a mostly one-sided game, Snell’s 90 game score over eight innings was posted in a more intense context.

That game was scoreless until Freddie Freeman‘s sixth-inning homer, and the Dodgers didn’t tack on the second run of their eventual 2-1 win until the ninth, after Snell departed. And it was only when that happened that Milwaukee was finally able to crack the scoreboard. Snell was not just brilliant, but he was brilliant in a game that allowed for no margin for error. WPA loved it.

Snell has been lights-out in all three of his playoff starts and the 1.203 WPA he’s rolled up already ranks in the top 30 all time among postseason pitchers. If Snell gets two starts in the World Series and approaches the .401 WPA per game he’s averaged so far, he’s going to crack the WPA pantheon, and if the games in the Fall Classic are close, he might end up leading the way.

2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners | .800

Raleigh was already having a great postseason, but his eighth-inning, game-tying homer off Toronto reliever Brendon Little was the kind of game-turning event (.320 WPA all by itself) that flips a leaderboard. It wasn’t quite enough to overcome Ohtani for the WPA crown for the night, but it did put Raleigh in position to win Mr. October if Seattle keeps advancing.

3. Alex Vesia, Dodgers | .708

Vesia has strung together six straight scoreless outings, all in close Dodgers wins. The outings have yielded four holds and two wins. Vesia has been understandably overshadowed by what some of his teammates have been doing, but he has played a key role in Los Angeles’ playoff spree.

4. Andres Munoz, Mariners | .704

Not all of Munoz’s outings have been high-leverage, but they’ve all been virtually spotless. Over six outings, Munoz has posted 7⅓ scoreless and hitless innings.

5. Roki Sasaki, Dodgers | .686

Sasaki’s shaky Game 1 outing in relief of Snell against Milwaukee cost him a little ground in the series by WPA. But he has posted two clean outings subsequent to that, and as long as he’s finishing close games, he can climb on this leaderboard.

Next five: 6. Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers (.596); 7. Nathan Lukes, Toronto Blue Jays (.506); 8. Bryce Miller, Mariners (.478); 9. Eduard Bazardo, Mariners (.467); 10. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (.462)

About last night

Golden Guy: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (.349)

Alas, WPA doesn’t really capture the full breadth of what we saw Ohtani do as the Dodgers swept the Brewers out of the NLCS. The .349 is impressive but because the Dodgers jumped to an early 3-0 lead (aided by Ohtani’s first homer to begin the onslaught), the rest of the game had limited leverage potential. Besides, there’s not one number that can fully do justice to what Ohtani did. It’s all of the numbers.

Three homers? It’s been done in the postseason, 12 other times in fact before Ohtani. Babe Ruth — Ohtani’s most common historical comparison — did it twice. But none of those previous instances were done by a game’s starting pitcher. And even if you want to get technical and point out that Ohtani’s third homer came after he had shifted to DH, well, no pitcher had homered even twice in a postseason game.

Ruth never homered in a World Series game in which he pitched. He owns the third-lowest career postseason ERA (0.87) among pitchers who have made at least three starts. But none of his amazing World Series outings as a pitcher also featured anything close to what Ohtani did with the bat against Milwaukee.

Ten whiffs? A 75 game score, which Ohtani earned in Game 4? Sure, many pitchers have exceeded those numbers in a postseason game. But none of them also hit three homers. In fact: No one had ever hit three homers while striking out 10 batters in the same game, period. Postseason, regular season, any season.

More than anything, the awe with which we watched Othani on Friday wasn’t just what he did, but how he did it.

According to the timestamps in Statcast’s play log, Ohtani struck out William Contreras swinging for this third straight whiff in the first inning at 7:45:18 p.m. PT. He then stomped off the mound, threw on his batting helmet and grabbed a bat, then hit a 446-foot homer at 116.5 mph off the bat against Jose Quintana at 7:50:05 p.m. — less than five minutes later. How is that possible?

Well, how is it possible that he struck out Jake Bauer on a splitter at 8:49:47 p.m. then, seven minutes later, hit a 469-foot bomb over the roof at Dodger Stadium against Chad Patrick? Or that, after finishing up his six standout innings on the mound, he then hit one out to center off Trevor Megill? Three homers off three different pitchers. Three homers during a six-inning start in which he allowed two hits. Who does that?

How is it possible that the same player who threw the 11 fastest pitches of the game — and the only two over 100 mph — also recorded the game’s three hardest hit balls, all at 113 mph or more? It’s not just that no one had ever done what Ohtani did on Friday. It’s arguable that no one else has even been capable of doing all those things in the same game. And oh yeah: That game happened to put his team back in the World Series.

There’s no one number that proclaims Ohtani’s Game 4 performance as the best single-game showing in baseball history. But if you want to make that argument, I for one am not going to stand in your way.

Good while they lasted

Top 10 postseason WPAs from players on eliminated teams

1. Will Vest, Detroit Tigers | .848

2. Tarik Skubal, Tigers | .609

3. Kerry Carpenter, Tigers | .591

4. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees | .579

5. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians | .482

6. Keider Montero, Tigers | .441

7. Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers | .362

8. Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies | .349

9. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox | .348

10. Cam Schlittler, Yankees | .314

Ohtani tracker

Since Ohtani inspired all of this, we should keep tabs on his WPA progress.

Through the NLCS:

Hitting WPA: minus-.062

Pitching WPA: .109

Overall WPA: .047 (98th of 284 players this postseason)

Ohtani jumped from 277th to 98th on Friday night. Let’s cross our fingers for two Ohtani starts in the Fall Classic.

The WPA pantheon

Top 10 single-season postseason WPAs since 1903

Note: It’s a big time frame, but the cumulative nature of the leaderboard heavily favors the recent decades when there have been more playoff rounds.

1. David Freese, 2011 St. Louis Cardinals | 1.908

2. David Ortiz, 2004 Red Sox | 1.892

3. Curt Schilling, 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.748

4. Alex Rodriguez, 2009 Yankees | 1.704

5. Yordan Alvarez, 2022 Houston Astros | 1.646

6. Carlos Beltran, 2013 Cardinals | 1.582

7. Bernie Williams, 1996 Yankees | 1.545

8. John Wetteland, 1996 Yankees | 1.522

9. Eric Hosmer, 2014 Kansas City Royals | 1.443

10. Mariano Rivera, 2003 Yankees | 1.420

Snell’s total at the end of the NLCS puts him in range of this select group. With two more outings in the World Series like his start in Milwaukee — in tight games — it’s conceivable he could challenge Freese for the all-time Mr. October throne. It’s a long shot, but either way, this has been an amazing run for Snell.

As for Ohtani, here are the four instances in which a player posted at least .200 WPA on both the hitting and pitching sides during the same postseason. This is the list we thought Ohtani might join. He has some work to do to get there, but at least we know that if he doesn’t do it, in 2025 baseball, no one else will.

• Christy Mathewson, 1913 New York Giants (1.054 WPA | .447 hitting; .607 pitching)

• Rube Foster, 1915 Red Sox (.883 WPA | .303 hitting; .580 pitching)

• Babe Ruth, 1918 Red Sox (.710 WPA (.209 hitting; .501 pitching)

• General Crowder, 1935 Tigers (.923 WPA | .207 hitting; .716 pitching)

• Jake Arrieta, 2016 Chicago Cubs (.480 WPA | .218 hitting; .262 pitching)

Editor’s note: This file originally ran on Oct. 2, 2025 with seven teams that have gone longer than 30 years without a title remaining and will be updated with teams removed as they are eliminated from the 2025 postseason

Mathematical probability, in a perfectly equitable distribution of championships, means each MLB team would win a World Series once every 30 years. That is not the world we live in, of course, so many franchises have experienced long title droughts that have stretched into multiple decades. There is even one that has never appeared in the Fall Classic.

That establishes a super fun element to this year’s postseason. We have several playoff teams who have gone longer than 30 years since their last World Series championship — including the Milwaukee Brewers, who have never won, and the Seattle Mariners, who have still never reached the World Series 48 years into their franchise history.

Maybe, just maybe, some team’s long-suffering fans will experience that euphoria of winning the final game of the season.

Yes, it’s the year of the World Series Drought-Buster Watch. Let’s look at those seven franchises, what went wrong through the years, and why this may finally be The Year.

Milwaukee Brewers

Last World Series title: None (franchise debuted in 1969, moved to Milwaukee in 1970).

Last World Series appearance: 1982 (lost to the Cardinals in seven games).

Closest call since then: Lost the 2018 NLCS to the Dodgers in seven games.

Three painful postseason moments:

• Leading 3-1 in the bottom of the sixth inning in Game 7 of the 1982 World Series, the Cardinals load the bases with one out. Keith Hernandez hits a two-run single off Bob McClure and George Hendrick follows with a go-ahead single as the Cardinals go on to a 6-3 win. Brewers fans will always wonder what the outcome might have been if Hall of Fame reliever Rollie Fingers, who got injured in September, had not missed the World Series.

• Pete Alonso‘s three-run, go-ahead home run in the ninth inning off Devin Williams in last year’s Game 3 of the wild-card series.

• Leading the Nationals 3-1 in the bottom of the eighth of the 2019 wild-card game, Josh Hader loads the bases with a hit batter, single and walk. With two outs, Juan Soto singles to right field and rookie Trent Grisham overruns the ball, allowing all three runners to score.

Why they haven’t won: Lack of offense has led to early playoff exits.

For a long time, the Brewers were just bad. They didn’t have a winning season from 1993 to 2006. Current owner Mark Attanasio bought the team from the Selig family in 2005, however, and after a breakthrough season in 2008, the Brewers have mostly been competitive since, despite the challenges of playing in MLB’s smallest market. The Prince Fielder-Ryan Braun teams were built around offense, but the teams under managers Craig Counsell and now Pat Murphy have centered more on pitching, defense, speed and doing the little things well.

While Christian Yelich was an MVP in 2018 and runner-up in 2019, the recent teams have often lacked one true offensive star to anchor the lineup. That’s one reason the Brewers have had trouble scoring enough runs in the postseason, and that has led to losses in that 2019 wild-card game and wild-card series in 2020, 2023 and 2024. They were in the NLDS in 2021, but scored just six runs in four games, including two shutouts. Overall, the Brewers have gone 2-10 in the playoffs since 2019 entering this year and have hit just .229/.290/.351.

Why this could be the year: Even though the Brewers still don’t have that superstar hitter and rank below average in home runs, this is a deep, good offensive team. Only the Yankees and Dodgers scored more runs during the regular season. Only the Blue Jays struck out less among the playoff teams. And the Brewers do have guys who can hit home runs: Yelich has had his best power season since 2019; Brice Turang has slugged over .500 in the second half; Jackson Chourio can hit it out; and William Contreras hit nine home runs in August, so if he gets hot at the right time, he can help carry a lineup.

The Brewers also earned the No. 1 overall seed and have played well at home, with a 51-29 record. That could be a nice advantage. And even without the injured Trevor Megill, this is a strong bullpen with hard-throwing Abner Uribe capable of closing down leads. The Brewers had the best record for a reason: They’ve quieted skeptics and have remained the most consistent team all season long.

Seattle Mariners

Last World Series title: None (franchise debuted in 1977).

Last World Series appearance: None.

Closest call: Lost the 1995 ALCS to Cleveland and the 2000 ALCS to the Yankees, both in six games. Also lost the 2001 ALCS in five games. Were up 2-1 in the 1995 ALCS against Cleveland, but a powerful Mariners lineup got shut out twice in the final three games.

Three painful postseason moments:

• Leading 1-0 and looking to tie the 2001 ALCS against the Yankees at two games apiece, New York’s Bernie Williams ties the game with an eighth-inning home run off Arthur Rhodes, and Alfonso Soriano hits a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth off Kazuhiro Sasaki.

• Rhodes again. In Game 6 of the 2000 ALCS, the Mariners are leading the Yankees 4-3 in the seventh when David Justice blasts a three-run homer off Rhodes and sends Yankee Stadium into a deafening roar.

• Back in the playoffs in 2022 for the first time since 2001, the Mariners lead the Astros 7-3 in the eighth inning in the division series. Alex Bregman hits a two-run homer in the eighth. With two on and two outs in the bottom of the ninth, manager Scott Servais summons starter Robbie Ray out of the bullpen to face Yordan Alvarez. Wrong decision. Alvarez blasts a game-winning three-run homer.

Why they haven’t won: Bad offenses and, for the longest time, bad drafting. And just missing the playoffs.

The Mariners couldn’t win in the mid-to-late ’90s despite a roster that featured Ken Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson, Alex Rodriguez and Edgar Martinez. Then came the miracle season of 2001, when they won a record 116 games with only Martinez still on the roster. Then came the long playoff drought, from 2002 to 2021. Those teams were marked mostly by inept offense: They once finished last in the AL in runs four straight seasons. In 2010, they traded for Cliff Lee and went all-in on pitching and defense. ESPN The Magazine put them on its cover. They lost 101 games.

Jerry Dipoto was hired as GM after the 2015 season and began turning things around. He drafted Logan Gilbert and George Kirby in the first round in 2018 and 2019, Cal Raleigh was a third-round pick in 2018, Bryan Woo was a sixth-round pick in 2021. The organization signed Julio Rodriguez in 2017. Since 2021, the Mariners have had five straight winning seasons and are seventh in the majors in wins — but this is only their second playoff appearance, having just missed in 2021, 2023 and 2024.

Why this could be the year: With Raleigh’s historic campaign leading the way, this is the best offense the Mariners have had in 25 years, with their highest wRC+ since 2001. Dipoto’s deadline trades for Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez created one of the best one-through-nine groups in the majors. They ranked third in the majors in home runs, and Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena and Naylor (!) each stole 30 bases. The Mariners’ bullpen isn’t super deep, but the late-game foursome of Andres Munoz, Matt Brash, Eduard Bazardo and Gabe Speier has been reliable.

As that stretch of 17 wins in 18 games in September showed, the starting pitching might finally be living up to the preseason expectations following a stellar 2024 season. The concern is Woo’s health. Seattle’s best starter all season with 15 wins and a 2.97 ERA, Woo left his final start with inflammation in his pectoral muscle. The Mariners still have Gilbert, Kirby and Luis Castillo, but if the only franchise never to reach a World Series is to get there, a healthy Woo feels necessary.

Last World Series title: 1993

Last World Series appearance: 1993 (beat the Phillies in six games).

Closest call since then: Lost the 2015 ALCS in six games to Kansas City. Also lost the 2016 ALCS, in five games, to Cleveland.

Three painful postseason moments:

• Game 6 of the 2015 ALCS is tied in the eighth when Kansas City’s Lorenzo Cain draws a leadoff walk. Eric Hosmer then singles to right field with Cain heading to third, and when Jose Bautista throws the ball into second base, Cain keeps on sprinting home for the winning run in a 4-3 victory.

• In Game 2 of that series, the Blue Jays lead 3-0 in the seventh, but manager John Gibbons leaves in a tiring David Price to give up five hits and five runs.

• The Blue Jays blow an 8-2 lead at home in Game 2 of the 2022 wild-card series against Seattle. The winning runs come up when J.P. Crawford clears the bases with a bloop double to center field as a diving George Springer collides with Bo Bichette.

Why they haven’t won: A tough division and the bats going dry in October.

After back-to-back World Series titles in ’92 and ’93, the Blue Jays went 20 years without a playoff appearance even though they were rarely bad in that period. They just couldn’t beat the Yankees and Red Sox or, later, the Rays and Orioles. They finally broke through and won the American League East in 2015 with the Josh Donaldson/Jose Bautista team that scored 127 more runs than any other AL team. They lost to the Royals in the ALCS that year and to Cleveland in 2016 — when the Jays scored just eight runs in five games. Remember when Cleveland had to start an obscure minor leaguer named Ryan Merritt, who had started one game in the majors, in Game 5 because they had no other starters? He tossed 4⅔ shutout innings.

In recent years, the Blue Jays went 0-6 in wild-card series in 2020, 2022 and 2023, scoring three runs in 2020, getting shut out once in 2022, and scoring one run in two games against the Twins in 2023. Entering 2025, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit .136 in six playoff games (no home runs, one RBI) and Bichette .273 with the same no home runs and one RBI.

Why this could be the year: This is a better Blue Jays club than those past three playoff teams. They have home-field advantage throughout the AL bracket and went 54-27 at home. Since May 27, only the Brewers have a better record, and they do things that work in postseason baseball: They play good defense and they had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors. Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber give them a strong 1-2 punch and rookie Trey Yesavage could be a huge secret weapon, either as a starter or reliever, despite just 14 innings in the majors. Plus, Guerrero and Bichette (if he’s healthy) are due to finally do something in October.