Anger is a natural and often entirely reasonable emotion, but it can also be a little like misplacing your car keys. There’s frustration, outrage, exasperation and a string of epithets that would make Pat Narduzzi blush, and then just when the emotions have reached their apex, you realize the keys have been in your coat pocket the whole time.

So it was with last week’s Anger Index.

BYU was right to be upset that, in spite of a spotless record, it was slotted behind three one-loss teams.

The ACC was perfectly justified in its outrage, without a single team in the top 13, despite Louisville and Virginia profiling far better than two-loss teams ranked higher.

Memphis certainly had an ax to grind, relegated to the committee equivalent of an “others receiving votes” nod, when a three-loss team from across the state cracked the top 25.

So, of course, we yelled and screamed and cursed the committee, and by the end of Week 11, we imagine those same committee members were sitting in an oversized chair, stroking a cat and smugly cackling like Bond villains.

But this is a lesson worth learning — not for the outraged and aggrieved, but for the committee.

Because the committee is made up of some particularly wise college football minds, those folks can watch a team’s performance and create a trend line. They can see Virginia squeaking by in close games or compare the recruiting pedigree of BYU’s roster with teams from the SEC and make an entirely reasonable prediction that, on a long enough timeline, those teams’ flaws will become evident and the results will prove the committee right.

But it’s a little like watching the Kentucky Derby, seeing the leader fading down the stretch and a favorite charging from the back. Can we predict the outcome with some level of certainty? Sure. But you don’t call the race then and there.

The committee’s job is to survey the evidence at hand and capture that specific moment in time, not guess about the future — educated as those guesses might be.

So, yes, BYU and Louisville and Virginia and Memphis had reasons to be outraged, even if the committee’s predictions ultimately came true, just as this week’s entrants on the Anger Index are entirely justified in their frustrations, regardless of what happens from here.

In Bill Connelly’s SP+ ranking this week, Georgia is one spot ahead of Alabama. But the two teams have the same record, and the Tide hold a head-to-head advantage, so the committee — rightfully — has Alabama ranked higher.

SP+ actually has Oklahoma (ninth) ahead of Texas (14th) by a sizable margin, and the Sooners’ overall profile — with wins vs. Michigan and Tennessee — is better, too. But again, the two schools have the same record, and Texas holds a head-to-head win, so the committee ranked the Horns higher.

Or consider Louisville and Virginia. The Cardinals (26th) are a full 15 spots ahead of Virginia in SP+ and 14 spots higher in strength of record. And no matter that Virginia’s head-to-head win over the Cardinals came in overtime and required two defensive touchdowns, the committee appreciates what happened on the field, and it has the Cavaliers ranked higher.

Similarly, the committee has USC ahead of Michigan, BYU ahead of Utah and Georgia ahead of Ole Miss, partially because the metrics bear that out, but also because, in each case, the higher-ranked team has the head-to-head win.

Please explain why Miami is different.

The Hurricanes’ metrics are solid. They’re 13th in SP+, 13th in strength of record, have four wins vs. FPI top-35 teams (i.e. the top 25% of FBS) — more than anyone but Texas A&M and Alabama — and, of course, have the same record as Notre Dame and hold the head-to-head victory over the Irish.

The committee, however, has Notre Dame ranked ninth and Miami 15th.

It’s nonsensical on its face, and worse when you consider the committee also has Texas (with a worse loss than either of Miami’s), Utah (just one FPI top-35 win) and Vanderbilt (four spots behind Miami in FPI) all ranked higher, too.

Again, it’s certainly possible the Canes lose this week to NC State — a team that has already taken down Virginia and Georgia Tech — but that’s not the point. The committee isn’t supposed to guess what will happen next. It’s supposed to rank teams based on what they’ve done so far, and there is absolutely no metric that warrants Miami’s placement behind so many two-loss teams with clearly inferior résumés.

It might seem like the difference between being No. 5 and No. 6 in the committee’s rankings isn’t much, but consider this: Ohio State and Indiana will likely play in the Big Ten title game. Some combination of Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama will play in the SEC title game. Some member of the committee’s current top four is quite likely to slip from that top perch and trade a first-round bye for a first-round home game, and someone else will get bumped up into the top tier and enjoy a week off when the playoff begins.

Texas Tech should have the inside track on that bye, but the Red Raiders don’t, because Georgia still rates ahead of them.

Why?

Texas Tech has played two top-13 teams now and beaten them by a combined score of 63-17. Georgia’s two best wins (vs. No. 7 Ole Miss and No. 23 Tennessee) came by a combined 11 points.

Texas Tech has a loss to Arizona State that looks bad on paper, but the Sun Devils actually profile well, and they won that game with a healthy Sam Leavitt. Surely that’s a better loss than Alabama’s defeat at the hands of slumping Florida State, right?

Yes, who you play matters, and in this case, Alabama (No. 4 SoR) and Georgia (No. 5) have had the tougher road. But how you play has to matter, too, and the Red Raiders have been far more dominant. Texas Tech has the second-best average in-game win probability in the country, trailing only Ohio State. Alabama’s is 17th. Georgia’s is 36th. Yes, credit to the Tide and Dawgs for winning close games. But more credit to Texas Tech for avoiding close games altogether.

As a general rule, if Lane Kiffin is pointing out a flaw in the committee’s logic, then the committee ought to take note. It’s not worth the retribution he’ll eventually deal out with a mercilessly hilarious tweet.

Lane Kiffin makes the case for Texas A&M to be #1

“Texas A&M being No. 3, what more do you want them to do to be 1?”

“They went up to Notre Dame and won.”

“What good did that do if that’s not rewarded?

“They have the highest metrics of everybody and not No. 1.” pic.twitter.com/NJ0m7qWVrw

— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) November 10, 2025

And, of course, Kiffin is right. What else does Texas A&M need to do to be ranked No. 1? The Aggies have the No. 1 strength of record, a supposedly critical stat for the committee. A&M has five wins vs. FPI top-35 teams; Ohio State has four. A&M’s best win is vs. No. 9 Notre Dame. Ohio State’s is vs. No. 10 Texas. A&M has played the 15th-toughest schedule so far (per ESPN’s metrics), while Ohio State has played the 41st.

Ultimately, the difference between being the top seed and the No. 3 seed is minimal, and given that Ohio State and Indiana will likely face off in a Big Ten title game, odds are the Aggies will enter the postseason at No. 2. No harm done, really. But it’s the principle of the thing. If A&M has the best résumé, it should be No. 1, because no one wants to spend a whole offseason hearing Greg Sankey whine about the SEC getting treated unfairly.

Last week, we thought the Cougars were being underappreciated. Then they went out and lost to Texas Tech and its ferocious defense and tumbled all the way from No. 7 to No. 12 — or, from in the playoff to out of it.

But does it make sense to divvy out that much punishment for a single loss on the road to one of the best teams in the country? To drop BYU behind three two-loss teams, each of which has lost to a team far worse than the Red Raiders?

Of course it doesn’t, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. How about this comparison?

Team A: No. 7 strength of record, No. 24 strength of schedule, two wins vs. SP+ top-40 teams by an average of four points, one loss to a top-10 team by 10 at home

Team B: No. 8 strength of record, No. 28 strength of schedule, three wins vs. SP+ top-40 teams by an average of eight points, one loss to a top-10 team by 22 on the road

You’ve probably guessed that Team B is BYU, and the No. 8 strength of record metric alone should make the committee’s ranking seem ludicrous.

But Team A? That’s Oregon, which picked up its best win of the season in Week 11 in a game it nearly lost to Iowa.

BYU and Oregon have the same record. BYU has a win over the committee’s No. 13 team, better than Oregon’s win over No. 21 Iowa (which is unranked in the AP poll, by the way). They both have understandable losses, but BYU’s was on the road.

And the committee sees BYU as four spots behind Oregon.

Make it make sense.

A quick blind résumé:

Team A: SP+ No. 12, best win vs. committee’s No. 18 team, losses to SP+ Nos. 6 and 23 by a combined 12 points, 17.8 points-per-game average margin of victory vs. FBS opponents, who are a combined 38-29 in other FBS games.

Team B: SP+ No. 14, best win vs. committee’s No. 11 team, losses to SP+ Nos. 1 and 48 by a combined 15 points, 13.1 points-per-game average margin of victory vs. FBS opponents, who are a combined 33-34 in other FBS games.

There’s not a ton of margin between the two, but you’d probably give a slight edge to Team A, right? Aside from Team B having a small advantage in its best win, Team A has the better overall résumé.

Well, Team A is the Trojans.

Team B? That’d be Texas, which the committee has seven spots higher.

As we showed with Miami’s spot, there’s certainly room for a lot of debate around the two-loss teams, but given that Notre Dame and Texas are currently on the right side of the playoff dividing line, and Miami and USC (and others) are not, it’s a debate that requires a ton of scrutiny. But somehow, USC seems like the least scrutinized of any of the two-loss teams — a team that has been largely overlooked in spite of some real success.

And it certainly feels like the committee has looked at Miami’s loss to SMU and USC’s loss to Illinois and deemed those too egregious to warrant further consideration, while completely ignoring the fact that Texas lost to a train wreck Florida Gators squad that has since fired its coach and went to overtime with both Kentucky and Mississippi State. It’s notable, too, that the committee continues to rank a three-loss Iowa, whose strength of record is No. 30, but not a three-loss Illinois, whose strength of record is No. 18. By keeping the Hawkeyes in the top 25, things look a lot better for fellow Pac-12-to-Big Ten transfer Oregon, and by keeping Illinois out, things look worse for the Trojans.

Also angry this week: James Madison Dukes (8-1, unranked), Tulane Green Wave (7-2, unranked), Arizona State Sun Devils (6-3, unranked), Illinois Fighting Illini (6-3, unranked), North Texas Mean Green (8-1, unranked), Pitt fans (who are worried Notre Dame is about to hang 100 on them).

There wasn’t much movement Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff’s second ranking, with the top five staying the same, but a big winner might have been the entire state of Texas.

The No. 3 Aggies are still in a first-round bye position, Texas Tech rose to No. 6 after its convincing win against BYU and Texas moved into a safer spot at No. 10 thanks to BYU dropping to No. 12.

And in the state of Florida, No. 15 Miami regained its position as the committee’s top ACC team, while No. 24 South Florida is the first Group of 5 team to appear in the CFP top 25 this season.

The Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s second ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.

The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on Tuesday night’s second committee ranking.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M

Last team in: Texas. The Longhorns earned a promotion to No. 10 after BYU dropped to No. 12. They had a well-timed bye on Saturday to prepare for Georgia, and no team has a better chance to impress the selection committee this month than Texas. The Longhorns will face two top-five opponents in No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M, but with a bad loss to Florida to go along with the defeat by Alabama, Texas is still on the bubble even though it could appear to be in a safer spot this week. If Texas finishes as a three-loss team, it’s conceivable it could be ranked in the top 12 but would likely face a similar situation to Alabama last year. The Tide was the committee’s top three-loss team but got bumped out of the top 12 during the seeding process to make room for a conference champion that earned a guaranteed spot. With the ACC and Group of 5 champions currently outside of the committee’s top 12, it looks like the No. 11 and No. 12-ranked teams would be excluded — and that’s probably the ceiling for a three-loss Texas team.

First team out: Oklahoma. The Sooners had a bye last week to prepare for Alabama, which is essentially a playoff elimination game for OU. Unlike Texas, the Sooners likely wouldn’t have enough on their résumé to compensate for a third loss, even if it were on the road to a top-four team. Their best wins are against Michigan, Auburn and Tennessee — and they would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to Texas if their records remain the same.

Still in the mix: Vanderbilt. The Commodores need some chaos to get back into the conversation, but the overtime win against Auburn kept their hopes alive. Vandy isn’t going to play in the SEC championship game, and its only remaining opponents are against Kentucky and Tennessee. Texas, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt are jockeying for a fifth at-large bid for the SEC — which isn’t guaranteed — and Texas has the head-to-head win over Vandy. If OU and Texas both lose, though, and Vandy wins out, Vandy could move up on Selection Day.

Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee

Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon

Last team in: Oregon. The Ducks did exactly what the committee needed them to do Saturday — earn a statement road win against a CFP top-25 team in Iowa. While Oregon remained safe at No. 8 on Tuesday night, it doesn’t mean the Ducks are a lock for the playoff. What if they lose to USC? If USC runs the table, its chances of reaching the playoff would skyrocket to 80% according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor — ahead of Oregon (77.5%), which could still get in WITH USC, depending on how far the committee drops them after a second home loss. How the game unfolds will also factor into its decision.

First team out: USC. The Friday night victory against Northwestern (wait, he’s not the punter!) kept the Trojans’ playoff hopes alive. They avoided an upset on a short week while NU had a bye week to prepare. Before USC even gets to Oregon, though, it has another extremely difficult home game Saturday against Iowa. If USC and Michigan run the table, it could create a significant debate in the committee meeting room because USC would have the head-to-head win, but Michigan would have defeated No. 1 Ohio State for the best win in the country. USC also has its own tiebreaker problem, as it lost the head-to-head result at Notre Dame.

Still in the mix: Michigan. The Wolverines have two respectable road losses — to USC and Oklahoma — but they have a chance at the best win in the country if they can beat rival Ohio State for a fifth straight season. If Michigan runs the table, it will have a 46% chance to reach the playoff — ninth best in the country, independent of other results. The head-to-head tiebreakers could be a factor when ranking Michigan against USC and Oklahoma, but at 10-2 with a win against the committee’s top team, the Wolverines would be in the discussion.

Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin

Big 12

Would be in: Texas Tech

Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders separated themselves from the rest of the league with Saturday’s resounding triumph over BYU, which is one of the best wins in the country. With the bump two spots to No. 6, the Red Raiders are within striking distance of a first-round bye if they can move into one of the top four spots on Selection Day. It’s not inconceivable considering Ohio State and Indiana are likely to play each other in the Big Ten title game and Alabama still has a tricky game against Oklahoma on Saturday. This position also gives Texas Tech a little cushion should it lose in the Big 12 championship game.

First team out: BYU. The biggest movement in the ranking was with BYU sinking to No. 12, where it would be excluded from the playoff if it were today to make room for No. 12 South Florida, which is the projected Group of 5 champion. If BYU wins the Big 12, which is still a realistic scenario, it will clinch a spot in the playoff regardless of where it’s ranked. BYU’s chances of earning an at-large bid, though, took a significant hit Saturday because of how it lost to Texas Tech — with a subpar offensive performance that included three turnovers.

Still in the mix: Cincinnati, Utah. Cincinnati made its first appearance this week at No. 25 in the committee’s ranking. The Bearcats — and Utah — have at least a 17% chance of reaching the Big 12 title game. Any Power 4 team with a realistic shot at playing for its conference title has a chance at the 12-team field because the five highest ranked conference champions are guaranteed bids. Cincinnati has only one Big 12 loss (the other was the season-opener to Nebraska in Kansas City), but it was a 45-14 drubbing by Utah. The Bearcats have a chance at a statement win on Nov. 22 when they host BYU. There’s a lot of respect within the committee meeting room for Utah, but with Baylor, Kansas State and Kansas left on the schedule, winning the Big 12 is its most realistic path to the playoff.

Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia

ACC

Would be in: Georgia Tech

Last team in: Georgia Tech. Even though Miami checks in as the committee’s top ACC team though at No. 15, Georgia Tech has a far better chance of reaching the ACC title game. The ACC continues to struggle with its top two teams — Virginia and Louisville — losing Saturday night to unranked opponents Wake Forest and Cal, respectively. That means Georgia Tech and Duke (yes, Duke) are the two most likely teams to play for the ACC title, according to ESPN Analytics. Georgia Tech still has an opportunity to quiet its naysayers, though, when it plays rival Georgia in the regular-season finale. While it would be one of the best wins in the country, it might not be enough to catapult the Yellow Jackets back into the field if they don’t win the ACC. The ACC isn’t in danger of being excluded from the playoff — its champion will get in — but it’s becoming increasingly unlikely that the league runner-up will join it.

First team out: Miami. The Canes got promoted to No. 15 ahead of Louisville and Virginia despite a loss to the Cardinals. Miami has a 5.9% chance of reaching the ACC title game and a 10% chance to reach the playoff, according to ESPN Analytics. Miami still has a lot of work to do to earn an at-large bid, and equally as important is hoping teams above it loses.

Still in the mix: Duke, Louisville, Pitt, SMU, Virginia. All of these teams have at least a 5% chance to still reach the ACC title game, according to ESPN Analytics. Of all of the teams listed here, though, Georgia Tech, Virginia, SMU and Miami lead the ACC with at least a 10% chance to reach the CFP.

Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Independent

Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish ranked No. 9 on Tuesday night, earning a promotion thanks to BYU dropping to No. 12. The Fighting Irish dominated Navy on Saturday, which was playing without injured starting quarterback Blake Horvath. It was Notre Dame’s seventh straight victory since starting the season 0-2. The committee continues to consider that those two losses were by a total of four points to two CFP top-25 teams, including No. 3 and unbeaten Texas A&M. The committee was also impressed with Notre Dame’s 34-24 win against USC on Oct. 18, and that will continue to resonate with the Trojans now 7-2 after Friday’s victory against Northwestern.

Group of 5

Would be in: South Florida. After Memphis lost, the two teams most likely to play each other in the American Conference title game are South Florida and North Texas. The Bulls have the best chance (42%) to win the American, according to ESPN Analytics. South Florida is ranked No. 24 this week with wins against Boise State, Florida and North Texas.

Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas, Tulane. JMU has won seven straight contests, and its lone loss was at Louisville, but the Dukes don’t have anything on their résumé to compensate for it. JMU’s schedule is No. 115 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics. JMU has the second-best chance to reach the CFP (35.8%) behind South Florida (39.7%). North Texas and Tulane are still alive because they both still have at least a 44% chance to reach the American title game.

Bracket

Based on the committee’s second ranking, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Alabama

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Texas/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

North Carolina coach Bill Belichick said he is focused on Wake Forest, after questions about potential interest in the vacant New York Giants head coaching job.

During his Tuesday news conference in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, Belichick was asked what his message was to the team given the speculation about the newly opened job.

“Getting ready for Wake Forest, that’s all I got this week,” Belichick said.

As a follow-up, Belichick was asked whether players or recruits have inquired about the speculation that began after the Giants fired Brian Daboll on Monday.

“I’ve been asked about it from time to time,” Belichick said. “Look I’ve been down this road before. I’m focused on Wake Forest, that’s it. That’s my commitment to this team. This week it’s Wake Forest, next week it’s that opponent and so forth. I’m here to do the best for this team.”

Belichick is in his first season with North Carolina, which has won two straight games to bring its record to 4-5. Before coming to college coaching, Belichick spent his entire career in the NFL — winning six Super Bowls with the New England Patriots.

But he won two Super Bowls with the New York Giants as a defensive coordinator under Bill Parcells in the 1986 and 1990 seasons. Belichick often references Giants Hall of Fame linebacker Lawrence Taylor, who went to North Carolina and attended the season opener against TCU in Chapel Hill.