The last Stock Watch of the regular season is here. Before the next one, we’ll know who the 2025 World Series champion is, and will be knee-deep in another Hot Stove season.

With the Milwaukee Brewers topping the watch for the second month in a row, let’s use that surprising fact to make a couple of observations about this year’s competition:

• Payroll matters but it’s still no excuse. The likely playoff bracket looks loaded with big markets and big spenders, but teams like the Brewers and Kansas City Royals kind of take away the excuses of everyone who bemoans baseball’s economic disparity. Not that we shouldn’t seek to even the field, but in the meantime, teams should still be trying to win.

• There’s a solid chance we might see a champion we’ve never seen before. There are just five remaining teams with a goose egg in the World Series championship column. One of them is the Brewers, whose odds for ending that drought are the highest in baseball. Two others are the San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners, both likely playoff teams. Taken together, these three clubs have around a 28% shot at this year’s title. In other words, there’s better than a 1-in-4 chance that some long-suffering fan base will get to have a parade in a couple of months.

With the MLB trade deadline more than a month old, let’s take a look at the most recent fortunes of all 30 teams, with an eye on how their moves (or non-moves) have worked (or not worked) so far.

Win average: 98.7 (Last: 95.9, 1st)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 99.2%)
Champions: 18.3% (Last:11.3%)

Deadline aftermath: Milwaukee was quiet at the deadline and hasn’t gotten much from its additions. Backup catcher Danny Jansen hasn’t hit since arriving, while reliever Shelby Miller has been so-so in a mid-leverage role. Yet Milwaukee has baseball’s best record and run differential since deadline day. Sometimes you don’t mess with a good thing. Should the injury to closer Trevor Megill linger, you might argue Milwaukee should have been more aggressive in pursuit of a back-end reliever. First, we ought to wait for the Brewers’ bullpen to actually struggle, because Milwaukee always has an answer when it comes to filling roster holes.

Win average: 93.8 (Last: 92.7, 5th)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 96.8%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 7.8%)

Deadline aftermath: Dave Dombrowski went with quality over quantity at the deadline and it has paid off. Harrison Bader has mashed while playing mostly every day in center field. Jhoan Duran hasn’t been perfect, but he has been everything the Phillies could have hoped for, while changing the dynamic of the bullpen, now and looking ahead to October. It took Duran a month to move into a tie for the Phillies’ saves lead, a period during which he didn’t allow a walk or a homer. The additions continue even after the stinging loss of Zack Wheeler. Conceding nothing, Dombrowski also signed Walker Buehler on Sunday after Buehler was released by the Red Sox.

Win average: 93.3 (Last: 95.8, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Last: 99.4%)
Champions: 7.2% (Last: 13.6%)

Deadline aftermath: Chicago’s quiet deadline rankled pundits, and the reaction hasn’t softened given the struggles of the few additions the Cubs did make, and the ongoing distance between them and the Brewers in the National League Central. The Cubs might want to stop trading for infielders at the deadline. Last year, they picked up Isaac Paredes, who flailed as a Cub, then moved on and went back to his typical self this year with the Astros. This time, Willi Castro has gone from an above-average hitter with Minnesota to borderline unplayable with the Cubs, at least at the dish, as part of Chicago’s overall offensive slide.

Win average: 92.9 (Last: 95.8, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Last: 99.4%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 15.4%)

Deadline aftermath: Los Angeles’ deadline approach was more similar to a team straddling the add/subtract fence than what the Dodgers actually are: a talent-laden, mega-rich defending champ angling for a repeat. Alex Call has helped as an extra outfielder who plays against lefties, but reliever Brock Stewart has struggled. Mostly the Dodgers have leaned on improved pitching health over the past month. Their revived hurlers have kept the Dodgers in the elite tier. Over the remainder of the season, if L.A. can match its first-half hitting with its second-half pitching, the Dodgers will hit the postseason as the behemoth we always thought they were.

Win average: 92.9 (Last: 93.3, 4th)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 99.2%)
Champions: 11.3% (Last: 11.3%)

Deadline aftermath: The Tigers went heavy on pitching at the deadline with a particular focus on positive regression candidates. It has worked for the bullpen, where Kyle Finnegan in particular has looked like a different pitcher than he was for Washington. The returns on starters Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack have been mixed. Detroit has played middling ball over the past month, largely due to an offense that has fallen off a bit and went unaddressed in the trade market. The Tigers are fine in the American League Central race, but find themselves in a tight battle for a No. 1 seed with Toronto.

Win average: 91.7 (Last: 90.7, 6th)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 92.9%)
Champions: 7.7% (Last: 5.3%)

Deadline aftermath: A leaky bullpen has kept the Blue Jays from keeping their AL East rivals at bay, and, as we enter the final month, Toronto could end up with a No. 1 seed or could be a road team in the wild-card round. The deadline impact has been mixed. Shane Bieber looks like Shane Bieber, an undeniable boost. But on a relief staff that features a closer (Jeff Hoffman) with 29 saves and a below-replacement bWAR, the additions of Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland have yet to pay off. If Toronto’s bullpen picks up the pace, this is a complete team.

Win average: 90.6 (Last: 90.2, 7th)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 89.0%)
Champions: 4.0% (Last: 4.5%)

Deadline aftermath: The Padres overtook the Dodgers a couple of times in August, only to slip back behind their nemesis. A.J. Preller’s deadline haul has accomplished its primary objective, which was to shore up roster holes and raise San Diego’s floor. The exception to that description — the addition of Mason Miller to an already strong bullpen — looks very much like a ceiling raiser. The only quibble might be in the rotation, where those the Padres dealt (Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek) have together outpitched those Preller acquired (Nestor Cortes, JP Sears). But Freddy Fermin, acquired for Bergert and Kolek, stabilized the catcher position.

Win average: 90.5 (Last: 88.8, 11th)
In the playoffs: 98.9% (Last: 87.2%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 8.0%)

Deadline aftermath: The Yankees’ trajectory changed sharply over the second half of August, a month they exited as one of baseball’s hottest teams. Behind a reinvigorated offense and a steady rotation, New York is back in contention for the AL East crown, a No. 1 seed, the whole pinstriped ball of wax. But the deadline-infused bullpen needs to pull it together consistently, or Yankees fans will enter October in an even more heightened state of anxiety than usual. If not for the solid work done so far by ex-Pirate David Bednar, New York’s work bolstering the relief group might look even worse.

Win average: 89.7 (Last: 88.9, 10th)
In the playoffs: 97.9% (Last: 87.6%)
Champions: 6.7% (Last: 5.5%)

Deadline aftermath: Boston’s pitching staff additions of Steven Matz and Dustin May didn’t exactly scream “‘all-in!” for a team that by the end of July had positioned itself for a playoff run. May and earlier in-season addition Jordan Hicks haven’t had an impact, but Matz has been lights out in a surging bullpen. Boston continues to play well, and the promotion of rotation prospect Payton Tolle is a jolt of energy for that unit. The Red Sox needed a power bat, but those were in short supply. The bottom line is that Boston hasn’t lost any ground since we last convened.

Win average: 88.1 (Last: 89.5, 9th)
In the playoffs: 85.3% (Last: 88.0%)
Champions: 3.6% (Last: 6.1%)

Deadline aftermath: Whatever you thought about Houston’s attempt to bolster its offense at the deadline with the additions of Carlos Correa, Jesus Sanchez and Ramon Urias, it hasn’t had the desired effect. Houston had a losing August (13-15) while ranking 26th in net runs per game. Only the Guardians scored fewer runs. Each member of the incoming trio has performed close to projection, so you can’t blame them, and it’s likely that without them, things would be worse. Still, the Astros enter the stretch run in a more precarious position than they’ve been in a long time.

Win average: 86.7 (Last: 90.1, 8th)
In the playoffs: 88.2% (Last: 89.4%)
Champions: 5.2% (Last: 4.5%)

Deadline aftermath: The Mets enter September with one of baseball’s hottest offenses. They also have one of MLB’s coldest pitching staffs. Thus, we’ve seen many games like New York’s 10-8 win over Detroit on Labor Day. The Mets got five quality starts in August. That isn’t great, but if the bullpen is rolling … well, it’s not. The relievers went 2-for-7 in save opportunities. Deadline pickups Gregory Soto and Tyler Rogers have been fine, but the splash was supposed to come from Ryan Helsley, whose August ERA (9.31) was more like a belly flop. There’s a month to get this right before the playoffs.

Win average: 86.5 (Last: 86.8, 12th)
In the playoffs: 74.1% (Last: 70.4%)
Champions: 2.6% (Last: 3.4%)

Deadline aftermath: The process — acquiring Arizona’s corner infield of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez — was deservedly lauded. The early results are mixed. At first base, Seattle’s OPS before Naylor’s Mariners debut was 0.708, mostly Rowdy Tellez and Donovan Solano. Since then, it’s 0.761. Good! At third base, the OPS was 0.664 before Suarez. It’s 0.659 since. Meh! Seattle has treaded water since the deadline splash, ranking 18th in runs, despite a huge month from Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh‘s homer-fest. The Mariners need their big guns to get hot at the same time, because nothing, not even a playoff slot, is assured.

Win average: 83.6 (Last: 84.1, 13th)
In the playoffs: 28.7% (Last: 43.2%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 2.1%)

Deadline aftermath: Despite lackluster offense, Texas targeted pitching before the deadline, coming away with relievers Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton. The big prize was starter Merrill Kelly, who seemed like a luxury addition until the injury to Nathan Eovaldi. The Rangers have leaned on Kelly and he has responded. That hasn’t been the case for the relievers, and for most of August, the Texas bullpen prevented the club from really catching fire. Texas heated up lately, but now faces most if not all of September without Eovaldi, Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Manager Bruce Bochy will need to be in Hall of Fame form.

Win average: 82.5 (Last: 80.9, 16th)
In the playoffs: 11.3% (Last: 12.5%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.1%)

Deadline aftermath: The Royals continue to undermine excuses from less aggressive clubs in baseball’s lower economic tiers. The threshold isn’t that high. Just try. Kansas City’s offense for most of the season was a hodgepodge of negative regression performers down from 2024, and glaring, gaping holes. The Royals, seven games under .500 near the end of June, added anyway, raising their floor with the likes of Adam Frazier, Randal Grichuk and Mike Yastrzemski. They also bolstered an injury-plagued rotation with Bergert and Kolek. End result: The Royals have plenty to play for during the stretch run. A playoff return remains in play.

Win average: 81.6 (Last: 82.3, 14th)
In the playoffs: 6.8% (Last: 12.3%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.4%)

Deadline aftermath: The Reds’ acquisition of starter Zack Littell struck me as odd and, frankly, it still does. He has been pretty good. But Cincinnati has plenty of “pretty good” when it comes to the rotation. The Reds have candidates for much better than that behind the pretty good. Anyway, the pickups for the lineup have been chef’s kiss good. Miguel Andujar has hit like peak-level Miguel Cabrera. Ke’Bryan Hayes has flashed his elite defense and paired it with a level of offense that adds up to a really good player. If the Reds don’t make the playoffs, it won’t be because of deadline deficiencies.

Win average: 81.6 (Last: 81.8, 15th)
In the playoffs: 4.8% (Last: 9.4%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.2%)

Deadline aftermath: The Giants went into soft unload mode around the deadline. They weren’t playing well, and while their probabilities made the playoffs possible, the trajectory wasn’t good. A month later, the Giants’ position hasn’t changed — they’re still a fringe playoff candidate — but some of their pickups have already contributed. Jose Butto has been very good out of the bullpen, and Drew Gilbert, while swinging at everything, has flashed some pop and is getting acclimated to the majors. The Giants are offering a glimpse of what they’ll be next season, and have given their fans reasons to watch the stretch run with interest.

Win average: 80.8 (Last: 80.3, 17th)
In the playoffs: 3.6% (Last: 10.2%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.4%)

Deadline aftermath: Once again, the Rays’ deadline was about setting themselves up for the next season while not totally raising the white flag on the current one. As you can see from the unchanged win projection, things have chugged along on the same track, though staying the course has come with dwindling playoff odds. The new catchers — Hunter Feduccia and Nick Fortes — have together hit less than a pre-universal-DH pitcher. But the various departures have created openings for Feduccia, Carson Williams and Everson Pereira, and that’s the general idea. A miracle wild-card berth is not, as yet, totally out of the question.

Win average: 79.4 (Last: 79.3, 19th)
In the playoffs: 0.9% (Last: 6.5%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)

Deadline aftermath: Having Bieber around for Cleveland’s long shot postseason bid would be nice, but the judgment on the deal with Toronto is years off and pending the development of prospect Khal Stephen. Besides, Cleveland’s problem isn’t pitching. Despite finishing .500 in August, the Guardians enjoyed a clean sweep in the major hitting categories, finishing last in runs, average, OBP and slugging. Between the putrid attack and the losses of pitchers Luis L. Ortiz and Emmanuel Clase to indefinite leave, it’s amazing that Cleveland’s hopes remain slightly alive. That’s the beauty of this year’s AL. It’s hard to play yourself out of contention.

Win average: 78.9 (Last: 77.3, 21st)
In the playoffs: 0.5% (Last: 0.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: You can argue whether the Twins or the Diamondbacks traded more right-now value at the deadline but it’s one of the two. For Arizona, the losses of Kelly, Naylor, Suarez, Miller and Grichuk have … helped? It’s hard to claim that Arizona has played better because of those departures, but the Snakes have played better. The Diamondbacks went 17-12 in August and were in the top 10 in both run scoring and run prevention. Suarez replacement Blaze Alexander has taken off on offense, while on the pitching side, the bullpen has gotten hot thanks to the work of off-the-radar types.

Win average: 78.1 (Last: 79.4, 18th)
In the playoffs: 0.4% (Last: 2.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)

Deadline aftermath: The Cardinals followed a standard route last month, dealing free agents-to-be and forgoing short-term additions. The approach adheres to St. Louis’ plan to treat the 2025 season as a minor nuisance, no matter if the team on the field clings to fringe contention. The losses of those dealt, even closer Helsley, given how he has performed in New York, haven’t had any effect on the short-term performance. The Cardinals continue to plug along in the middle as they were, waiting for next season. In some ways, it might have been easier for their fans if the Cardinals had just politely bottomed out.

Win average: 75.8 (Last: 78.1, 20th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: The Marlins played it casual at the deadline rather than kicking the can down the road by dealing Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, for now anyway. So the rest of the season is about getting better and creating opportunity for young players like outfielder Jakob Marsee, who put up a huge August in the relative vacuum of a standard Marlins season. Unfortunately, one of the aspirants won’t be deadline pickup Ryan Gusto, who was torched over three Marlins starts before going down with a shoulder impingement. Hopefully in September we’ll see more prospects like Victor Mesa Jr. and Andrew Pintar.

Win average: 75.4 (Last: 76.0, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: The Angels’ soft add around the deadline has actually worked, to a degree, in that bullpen additions Andrew Chafin and Luis Garcia have been airtight. Thus a bottom-five bullpen has been middle of the pack since the end of July. But a 6.35 rotation ERA and an 0.665 OPS by the offense in August have rendered that development moot. The early returns on ex-Yankee Oswald Peraza haven’t been good, as not only has he struggled to keep his OPS over 0.500, but he gave up eight runs on the mound during a mop-up appearance. The Angels’ season appears headed nowhere.

Win average: 74.2 (Last: 69.5, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: The A’s went 3-24 between May 6 and June 4, a month that sunk what looked like a possible wild-card candidacy. You don’t get to erase bad months from the record, but it’s worth considering that outside of that plunge, the Athletics are 10 games over .500. The splash at the deadline — trading Miller and getting elite prospect Leo De Vries in return — was a long-term play. Despite the short-term hit, the A’s had the fifth-best net runs per game figure in the majors during August and their relievers posted the best ERA in baseball. The Athletics are getting good.

Win average: 74.1 (Last: 72.4, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: The Braves had a winning month after the deadline, but it did little to mitigate a titanically disappointing season in Cobb County. The injuries have continued, as have some pretty crucial underperformances, like that of starter Spencer Strider. Michael Harris II has been hot as a firecracker since the break, which has been encouraging, but this season has mostly been one of Atlanta becoming a frequent stop on the DFA merry-go-round. The only note you might offer about the deadline is that pending free agents Raisel Iglesias and Marcell Ozuna should have been moved. It’s been a rough season.

Win average: 73.8 (Last: 76.1, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.3%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: Unsurprisingly, the Twins have floundered since their aggressive offloading approach to the deadline. With this season lost, Minnesota’s short-term focus is on the young players it picked up during the flurry of activity. The initial results for James Outman, Alan Roden, Mick Abel and Taj Bradley have been subpar across the board, but it’s early days and that list just represents those who have reached the majors. In any event, when you look at the exploits of ex-Twins like Harrison Bader, Jhoan Duran and Carlos Correa on their new teams, you can’t say Minnesota hasn’t impacted the pennant races.

Win average: 72.3 (Last: 72.3, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: The Orioles turned the page on a disappointing season at the deadline and added depth to their system in the process. The on-field results haven’t improved since the reshuffling, though the rotation had a nice run of outings. It’s all about next season. The Orioles’ August was a mixed bag in that regard. On the downside, Coby Mayo, Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser struggled last month. Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers reached the majors, with Beavers in particular getting off to a good start. The Orioles won’t return to the postseason, but they can enter the offseason with positive momentum.

Win average: 71.6 (Last: 69.9, 26th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: With the Pirates’ focus, as ever, on the distant horizon, the remainder of Pittsburgh’s post-deadline roster has stayed competitive. The rotation remains the unit to watch, and August was not without interest for that group. Paul Skenes continues to build a Cy Young case, but for once, he’s not the biggest reason for excitement. That would be Bubba Chandler, technically a reliever for now, who has looked terrific over a pair of bulk outings. After eight scoreless frames to start his career, Chandler has a lifetime ERA even better than Skenes’. Hey, in Pittsburgh you get your kicks where you can.

Win average: 64.5 (Last: 64.5, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: The Nationals’ never-ending rebuild feels stalled, perhaps even more so after another deadline of dealing veteran talent. Whether or not Washington got fair return in its deals is almost beside the point. When will it end? If the young foundational players were picking up momentum, it might feel different. But CJ Abrams, James Wood, Dylan Crews and Brady House are among those who have lagged since the All-Star break. If ever there was a franchise in need of a spark, it’s this one right now. The offense has been brutal, but the pitching, especially the rotation, has been even worse. Sigh.

Win average: 59.6 (Last: 62.1, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: The White Sox were playing pretty well at the time of the deadline, but the month since has not been kind. Still, the record is neither here nor there, it’s more about individual performances right now. And through that prism, there is plenty to like about Chicago’s direction. Kyle Teel has been a well-rounded force at the plate. Colson Montgomery has displayed explosive power. There’s more, but you get the idea. The downer is the possible season-ending injury to Luis Robert Jr., whose combined slash over the past two seasons is .223/.288/.372. Maybe this is just what he is now.

Win average: 45.9 (Last: 44.3, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

Deadline aftermath: Colorado continues to lose games at a prodigious pace, but it’s a less frantic pace than earlier this season. Progress? Maybe not. During August, the Colorado rotation posted an ERA of 6.54 and allowed a .309/.381/.514 slash line. Before you start adjusting the rotation numbers for Coors Field, don’t bother. Those were the road numbers. The overall numbers can’t be published without a parental warning. One quest remains: Hunter Goodman‘s 2.7 bWAR places him third in Colorado history among primary catchers. The record is Chris Iannetta’s 3.2 in 2008. Setting any kind of positive record amid this mess would be something.