Every Major League Baseball offseason comes with its own unique brand of intrigue, and this year it is concern that the fear of a lockout and potentially prolonged labor stoppage in 2026-27 could bleed into the free agent market a year early.

In the winter of 2020-21, the last offseason that preceded a collective bargaining agreement expiration, free agent spending plunged precipitously, alarming players. It was a down class, sure, and COVID-related concerns remained palpable, yes, but players nevertheless saw it as a reminder that labor issues can infiltrate all areas of all markets at all times.

The class of 2025-26 is perfectly OK. It has a no-doubt multi-hundred-million-dollar anchor in Kyle Tucker, an MVP-caliber slugger in Kyle Schwarber, a do-everything infielder in Alex Bregman (if he opts out), a number of interesting starting pitchers (without an obvious headliner), solid relief arms and plenty of depth.

Does the group have enough to reach the $3 billion spending threshold that has been exceeded in each of the past four winters, though? The answer to that could very well depend on three names unfamiliar to most domestic baseball fans.

The Japanese revolution in MLB is not slowing down, and another impressive group is expected to come stateside for the 2026 season. Right-hander Tatsuya Imai and a pair of slugging third basemen — Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto — hope to play in MLB, according to sources, though their doing so depends on their Nippon Professional Baseball teams’ willingness to enter them into the posting system that serves as a conduit to the big leagues for those NPB players who have yet to play the nine years necessary for international free agency.

Imai, 27, is the most anonymous of the group — and, according to scouts who have watched him pitch this year, perhaps the most intriguing. His talent belies his wispy 5-foot-11, 154-pound frame. He is the hardest-throwing starter in Japan, with a fastball that sits at 95 mph and tops out at 99, and with a vicious slider, a changeup, a splitter, a curveball and a sinker he picked up this season, Imai has the sort of pitch mix that teams covet.

Imai’s numbers this year are silly: a 1.50 ERA with 159 strikeouts, 37 walks and just four home runs allowed in 143⅔ innings pitched. And although the dead ball in Japan certainly factors in, the quality of Imai’s stuff supports his otherworldliness. The big league success of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga — each an inch shorter than Imai — has also helped allay fears of diminutive starters who have pervaded baseball for decades. Upward of 20 major league scouts were at his start Tuesday, when he punched out 10 in a two-hit shutout.

With Imai flashing excellent control for the first time in his career, it would make sense for the Saitama Seibu Lions to reap a hefty posting fee by allowing him to come to the majors now. Imai won’t get the $325 million the Dodgers gave Yamamoto, but the combination of his age, performance and premier offerings have front office officials offering gaudy predictions. One suggested Imai could get upward of $200 million, though others balked at that number. A second source said he thinks Imai will receive a $150 million contract. Another said something like Patrick Corbin‘s 2018 contract with the Washington Nationals — six years, $140 million. The lowest number, among the dozen officials and scouts surveyed, was $80 million, which, with the desire for starting pitching and the number of years Imai should get because he’ll be the youngest one on the market, feels light.

The markets for Murakami and Okamoto aren’t quite as defined. Murakami wanted to come to MLB last year but was not 25 years old and thus would have been subject to signing as an international amateur free agent, with a ceiling of around a $10 million payday. Now 25, he will likely be posted by the Yakult Swallows and has been scouted in person this season by New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns and San Diego Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, the latter of whom saw Murakami whack three home runs for the Yakult Swallows on Saturday (and was later at Imai’s gem, too).

In limited playing time this season due to injury, the 6-foot-2, 213-pound Murakami has displayed his prodigious left-handed power. In a league where there’s a home run every 60 plate appearances, Murakami has hit 15 in 138 — one every 9.2 times up. Three years ago, Murakami smashed 56 homers, surpassing Sadaharu Oh’s single-season home run record that had stood since 1964. For all the questions about Murakami’s game — he strikes out too much and he might need to shift to first base or a corner outfield spot — the power is transoceanic.

Should Murakami continue his late-season power surge, the ceiling on his deal is even higher than Imai’s. The last MLB player to reach free agency at 25 was Alex Rodriguez. Age matters significantly, and the prospect of getting any player’s age 26 to 29 seasons is tantalizing — particularly one of Murakami’s caliber.

The 29-year-old Okamoto has been NPB’s most consistent power hitter since joining the Yomiuri Giants full-time in 2018. While a left elbow injury sustained in a collision playing first base — where, like Murakami, he could wind up — sidelined him for 3½ months, Okamoto is leading NPB with a .314 batting average with nearly as many walks (21) as strikeouts (23) and 11 home runs in 201 plate appearances. He is regarded by evaluators as the biggest question mark to make the leap, and he’s in line for a shorter-term deal than the others, but a contract for $50 million-plus is plenty realistic, especially with a September that proves his elbow healed.

Here are 10 other storylines to follow heading into the winter:

1. How much does Kyle Tucker get?

Tucker’s roller-coaster season has whipsawed predictions of his ultimate contract all over the place. Coming into the season, Tucker, who will be 29 in January, looked like a $350-400 million player because of his incredible consistency and all-around production. When Tucker is healthy, he hits, runs and fields at an exceptional level — a rare combination of skills. When you added in a hot start (his OPS was .931 at the end of June), matching Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500 million deal didn’t look unreasonable.

Then came July. Tucker disappeared. He was trying to play through a broken finger, and in his first 26 games after the All-Star break, his OPS was .572 — lower than his slugging percentage alone last season. The Cubs gave Tucker three games off, and the breather did him some good. Even with that bad stretch, only once in his career has he posted an OPS+ higher than this season, and that was last year, when he missed half the season.

Tucker’s best comparable might be Mookie Betts, not because of the similarities of their games but rather the level at which they produce while maintaining minuscule strikeout rates. Few players are as good at any of the three facets of the game as Tucker, let alone all three. Betts is the most obvious, and he signed a 12-year, $365 million deal that started in his age-28 season.

So, yeah, the number is going to be big — likely in the $400 million range. The Philadelphia Phillies could desperately use a big corner outfield bat, particularly if the next player on this list takes his talents elsewhere. The San Francisco Giants need a complement to Rafael Devers in the middle of the lineup. Others, including the Cubs, will be in the mix. The market will find Tucker, as it eventually does with the best players in every class.

2. What will teams pay for a DH?

Kyle Schwarber will begin next season as a 33-year-old designated hitter, which is not the sort of résumé that often — ever, actually — leads to a free agent windfall. To which Phillies fans, in unison, would reply: He’s different.

And they’re right. Schwarber is. He leads the National League in home runs and RBIs. He’s third in MLB in weighted on-base average behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, his two compatriots atop pretty much every measurable offensive category that matters. He plays every day — literally all 139 of the Phillies’ games — and in late and close situations this year is OPSing 1.244, nearly 100 points higher than the next-best hitter, Ohtani. Beyond that, Schwarber is regarded as the stickiest of glue guys, a font of knowledge whose interpersonal acuity makes him invaluable in a clubhouse.

Because of all he brings, Schwarber is going to get paid. Like, paid paid. Teams will scoff because of the age, the strikeouts, the positional inflexibility. But Schwarber’s total package will ultimately push some of them off such concerns and trigger a bidding war. If he wants, he can get at least four years. The salary, at that term, should be at least $30 million a year. And although remaining in Philadelphia makes the most sense, enough teams have holes at DH — looking at you, Texas, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston, Detroit, Cincinnati — that no amount of labor unrest will cause Schwarber’s market to dry up.

3. Does Alex Bregman stay or go?

Bregman signed a three-year, $120 million contract with the Boston Red Sox on the eve of spring training, and the fit has been exceptional. Bregman has taken over the Red Sox’s clubhouse and become their unquestioned leader: a baseball rat whose wisdom is exceeded by his willingness to help his teammates find the best versions of themselves. It’s rare to find a player who has such a wide base of knowledge and the ability to teach it, too.

Because his deal included opt-outs after each of the first two seasons, Bregman could be playing elsewhere in 2026. Barring an injury or catastrophic slump, he will opt out and join Tucker and Schwarber in a clear top tier among this winter’s free agents.

Boston recognizes what it would be losing were Bregman to embark elsewhere. The excellent at-bats. The glove at third base. The relationships with Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell he forged during spring training. The attitude. The focus. The feeling that in this next incarnation of the Red Sox, he belongs somewhere in the middle.

Complicating matters for the Red Sox, though, are the teams in need of better production at third that might be willing to spend for what Bregman provides. The Phillies. The Yankees. The Tigers. And it will take more than three years this time even though he’ll be going into his age-32 season. After one of the more lucrative pillow contracts ever, Bregman is bound to get the five-year-plus deal at an average annual value of $35 million-plus that eluded him last winter.

4. Who else will choose to be a free agent?

Here is a baker’s dozen decisions players must make within five days of the end of the World Series and the early lean on them:

Pete Alonso, Mets, first baseman: This one’s a no-brainer. Alonso got $30 million to play this year and will forgo $24 million next year after his fourth career 30-homer, 100-RBI season.

Will he opt out: Yes.

Edwin Diaz, Mets, closer: Díaz has two years and $37 million left on his deal, but with a 1.87 ERA and 4.5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, he’s headed for free agency, barring the Mets doing what they did three years ago when they re-signed him before he hit the open market.

Will he opt out: Yes, unless he re-ups first.

Cody Bellinger, Yankees, outfielder: At 30, Bellinger will be one of the best bats on the market when he turns down his $25 million player option (which includes a $5 million buyout). He’s on pace to put up his most home runs and RBIs since his 2019 NL MVP campaign and will seek nine figures this winter.

Will he opt out: Yes.

Robert Suarez, Padres, closer: The 34-year-old right-hander is not going to get the sort of long-term contract Díaz receives but looking for greater riches than the two years and $16 million he’s due on his current deal makes plenty of sense.

Will he opt out: Yes.

Shane Bieber, Blue Jays, right-handed starter: Being traded to Toronto allowed Bieber a hall pass from the qualifying offer, which is enough to take his $4 million buyout and turn down a $16 million option — provided he remains healthy for the rest of the season.

Will he opt out: Yes.

Jack Flaherty, Tigers, right-handed starter: While Flaherty’s 4.74 ERA is unsightly, he has struck out 169 in 142⅓ innings, enough for him to consider turning down $20 million and seeking a greater guarantee in free agency.

Will he opt out: Yes.

Trevor Story, Red Sox, shortstop: The lack of shortstop depth in the class makes it tempting, but the combination of what Story is owed (two years, $55 million) and his age (33 next year) is too risky to give up, even after a strong comeback season.

Will he opt out: No — probably.

Tyler O’Neill, Orioles, outfielder: In his first year with Baltimore, O’Neill has played 43 games and put up precisely 0.0 wins above replacement. With two years and $33 million left on his deal, this is an easy decision.

Will he opt out: No.

Joc Pederson, Rangers, DH: Regardless of his recent surge, Pederson won’t find $18.5 million anywhere on the free agent market.

Will he opt out: No.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Diamondbacks, outfielder: Even before tearing an ACL on Monday, Gurriel was not declining his $18 million player option.

Will he opt out: No.

Ha-Seong Kim, Braves, shortstop: The Braves claimed Kim off waivers from the Rays earlier this week and, in the process, might have solved their short-term shortstop problem. As good as Kim can be when healthy, he wasn’t this year, and picking up a $16 million player option before hitting free agency again makes the most sense.

Will he opt out: No.

Frankie Montas, Mets, right-handed starter: Montas will miss the rest of this year — and perhaps all of next year — after tearing his ulnar collateral ligament. He will make $17 million rehabbing.

Will he opt out: No.

A.J. Minter, Mets, left-handed reliever: Minter threw 11 innings before a season-ending lat injury. And as good as those 11 innings were, they weren’t good enough to pass up $11 million for next season.

Will he opt out: No.

5. What about the players with club options?

Teams love club options. And this list shows why. More often than not, the options — especially for top players — wound up getting exercised.

Likely to be picked up by the team:
Shota Imanaga, Cubs, three years, $57 million
Luis Robert Jr., White Sox, $20 million
Chris Sale, Braves, $18 million
Salvador Perez, Royals, $13.5 million
Brandon Lowe, Rays, $11.5 million
Max Muncy, Dodgers, $10 million
Jose Alvarado, Phillies, $9 million
Freddy Peralta, Brewers, $8 million
Ozzie Albies, Braves, $7 million
Pete Fairbanks, Rays, $7 million
Pierce Johnson, Braves, $7 million
Ramon Laureano, Padres, $6.5 million
Andrew Muñoz, Mariners, $6 million
Tyler Kinley, Braves, $5 million
Tim Hill, Yankees, $3 million

Borderline:
Colin Rea, Cubs, $6 million
Brent Suter, Reds, $3 million

Unlikely to be picked up:
Andrew Kittredge, Cubs, $9 million
Scott Barlow, Reds, $6.5 million
John Means, Guardians, $6 million
Kyle Hart, Padres, $5 million
Jonathan Loaisiga, Yankees, $5 million
Tom Murphy, Giants, $4 million
Jose Urquidy, Tigers, $4 million

6. Which starting pitchers are going to get paid?

It begins with Framber Valdez, who, since he joined Houston’s rotation full time in 2020, holds the following ranks among the 61 pitchers who averaged at least 100 innings a season:

Wins: 1st
Ground ball rate: 1st
Home run rate: 2nd
Innings pitched: 5th
ERA: 8th
FIP: 10th

The incident Tuesday with catcher César Salazar — in which Valdez hit the rookie in the chest with a 93-mph sinker in what both later blamed miscommunication of the pitch called — did not go unnoticed by front offices. Multiple officials noted that when pitchers and catchers get crossed up, the pitcher typically looks at the catcher and expresses concern. As Salazar glared toward the mound, wondering what had happened, Valdez’s back was turned.

It is also one data point, and while such an event can burrow it’s way into front offices’ minds, Valdez’s stuff is so good, his numbers so consistent — his highest full-season ERA is 3.45, his lowest 2.82 — and his playoff resume so long, even at 32 he’ll find multiple suitors willing to offer nine figures.

The other starting pitcher options include:

Dylan Cease, Padres, right-hander: The stuff remains elite, and front offices adore him despite a 4.71 ERA. He’ll be 30 going into next season and is likely to be saddled with a qualifying offer, so he’s a candidate for a shorter-term deal with multiple opt-outs unless a team falls in love and hands him a bag.

Michael King, Padres, right-hander: After an injury-riddled season, all it would take is a handful of good starts in September for King to remind teams he was the best-performing pitcher of the bunch over the past two years when he was healthy.

Ranger Suárez, Padres, left-hander: Velocity excepted, Suárez is good at everything. He throws six pitches, has cut his walk rate to a career low, strikes out hitters, is on pace for a career high in innings and, at 30, in a market with a paucity of lefties, is primed to cash in.

Merrill Kelly, Rangers, right-hander: It’s not powerful, but Kelly’s game is pretty. The pitch mix, the command — it all has allowed him the opportunity, at 37 in October, to cash in on a multiyear deal this winter. Bonus: It’s without the pesky qualifying offer because he was traded midseason.

Zac Gallen, D-backs, right-hander: He has been better lately — perhaps good enough to get tagged with a qualifying offer. Could he accept it and then hit the free agent market at 31 after 2026? Or is this one of the many cases in which labor-stoppage fear prompts a free agent to seek something longer term now?

Lucas Giolito, Red Sox, right-hander: Giolito has a $14 million club option that unquestionably will be picked up — but with 14⅔ more innings, it converts to a $19 million mutual option, which Giolito will reject in favor of the multiyear contract he has more than earned.

7. How good are the relief pitchers?

Beyond Diaz and Suárez, Boston closer Aroldis Chapman looked primed for a multiyear deal before he agreed to a one-year, $13 million contract with an option for 2027 with the Red Sox over the weekend. Though it took the best-performing reliever of 2025 off the market, plenty of others remain. Among those available:

Ryan Helsley, Mets, right-hander: In one month with the Mets, he has erased his entire WAR total from the previous four. Helsley’s stuff will get him a fine deal — he will get multiple years at eight figures per — but not nearly as fine as he would have liked it to be.

Devin Williams, Yankees, right-hander: After entering this season primed to threaten Diaz’s record deal, Williams has struggled with the Yankees and is looking at a one-year make-good deal. Working in his favor: a 2.85 FIP that suggests better things to come.

Luke Weaver, Yankees, right-hander: He’s a closer for half the teams in baseball. And he’s going to get paid like it this winter. Weaver just needs to keep his home run rate down.

Kyle Finnegan, Tigers, right-hander: Since joining Detroit at the deadline, Finnegan hasn’t allowed a run in 14⅓ innings, has struck out 19 and allowed just three hits and three walks. He’s setting himself up for a nice payday and is hopeful the groin issue that kept him from entering Wednesday’s game isn’t serious.

Drew Pomeranz, Cubs left-hander: Pitching in the big leagues for the first time in four years, Pomeranz allowed just two earned runs for the Chicago Cubs in his first 25⅔ innings. Since the All-Star break, he has given up nine in 13⅔. Some regression was expected, but Pomeranz’s offseason fortunes will depend on his performance in September and October.

Brad Keller, Cubs, right-hander: Another Cubs reclamation project, Keller, a longtime starter, turned in the best season of his career out of the bullpen. The best part: At 30, he’s one of the younger relievers available.

Tyler Rogers, Mets, right-hander: The sidearmer entered this season with a 2.93 ERA and has fared more than a full run better this season with the Giants and Mets. He’s probably not a closer, but he’s exactly the sort of pitcher who thrives facing the middle of the order. Nos. 3, 4 and 5 hitters are batting .213 with 17 strikeouts, one walk and four extra-base hits against Rogers this year.

Taylor Rogers, Cubs, left-hander: The veteran closer — and twin brother of Tyler — has a season that makes no sense. With a 34-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio in Cincinnati, Taylor managed to post a 2.45 ERA in 40 games. For the Cubs since the deadline, he has struck out 16, walked two and wound up with a 6.75 ERA.

Raisel Iglesias, Braves, right-hander: The 35-year-old has salvaged his season with a good second half after the home run ball clipped him too often in the first half. Iglesias has allowed just one homer in his past 21 innings after yielding six in his first 20⅓.

Kirby Yates, Dodgers, right-hander: The Dodgers nearly doubled Yates’ career-best single-season salary to pair him with Tanner Scott as a two-headed, late-inning duo. It has been as scary as a puppy. And yet teams will happily take Yates and his 46 strikeouts in 35⅓ innings.

Michael Kopech, Dodgers, right-hander: Kopech could make himself plenty of money with a strong September and October. And considering the state of the Dodgers’ bullpen, there’s ample opportunity for him to capture high-leverage innings.

Kenley Jansen, Angels, right-hander: Old reliable, Jansen is in line for his first sub-3.00 ERA since 2021. And although for the first time in his 16-year career he’s going to fall short of double-digit strikeouts per nine innings, Jansen’s effectiveness remains.

Hoby Milner, Rangers, left-hander: The 34-year-old Milner sits around 87 mph with his sinker, and it’s damn near unhittable. As much as his ERAs in 2023 (1.82) and 2024 (4.73) were outliers, Milner is putting up his fourth straight year of a 3.16-or-better FIP. The only others to do that? Milner’s Texas teammate Chris Martin, Williams and Emmanuel Clase, whose career status is uncertain amid an MLB gambling investigation.

Gregory Soto, Mets, left-hander: Among all left-handed relievers with at least 49⅔ innings, only Chapman throws harder than him. Nobody ever will mistake Soto for a control artist, but the stuff is playing, and even if another opportunity to close doesn’t come along, he can carve out a nice career in the middle.

8. How will the industry value Bo Bichette?

After last year’s uncharacteristic cratering, the real Bo Bichette has returned. And we say real because over his first five seasons in the major leagues, Bichette posted a .307/.352/.477. slash line, and this year it’s .310/.354/.478. That sandwiches him between Bobby Witt Jr. and Trea Turner in terms of wOBA among shortstops with at least 130 games. It’s a tremendous platform season for any free agent.

So why are there questions about Bichette’s value? Every publicly available defensive metric has him as the worst defensive shortstop in baseball. Same goes for three teams surveyed independently. And considering top shortstops tend to get more than $250 million in free agency, position — and the ability to stay at a premium one — can be the difference between joining that echelon and falling short.

Despite those concerns, there are some real positives: Bichette is only 27 years old, not 28 until March, the youngest of all the free agents. He’s in his prime with years left to spare. He’s a consistent .300-plus hitter. He goes to all fields. He’s got power. His problem with lateral mobility could easily be solved by a move to third base — though it remains to be seen if he would want to change positions — and his bat would be good enough to play there, too.

Whatever position Bichette mans, wherever he plays, he is a hitter in an era with far too few. Maybe he’s not a $300 million player. But if Turner is worth $300 million and Xander Bogaerts is worth $280 million and both were at least two years older than Bichette when they did sign, surely the market won’t leave him high and dry.

9. Which other infielders will have the most fruitful winters?

For all the consternation about what second baseman Gleyber Torres was and wasn’t with the New York Yankees, what he has been with the Tigers is a completely different version. There were signs of this kind of player in 2020, but the season was truncated, and never again, until now, has he shown such elite plate discipline. Torres is getting on base at a .364 clip — and his expected numbers (which reflect the sort of data teams value) rank sixth in the AL, behind only Judge, Corey Seager, Ben Rice, George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Torres will start next season at 29, a year older than first baseman Josh Naylor, who’s among the youngest players in the class. The age, while genuinely alluring, is not the only thing in Naylor’s favor. He continues to be who he has always been: a bat-to-ball savant with enough power to stick at first. His 23 stolen bases this season are exceptional for a player of Naylor’s build, and although he is prone to slumps — he has been in one of late — by the end of the season his numbers always look around the same. And that’s productive.

Then there’s the matter of Naylor’s Mariners teammate Eugenio Suárez, who at one point led the National League in home runs. Suárez is 34, and after a disaster of a first few weeks in Seattle, he has climbed back to around a league-average bat with the Mariners. He’s a beloved clubhouse figure, and with the prices and desired length of contracts for Bregman, the Japanese corner infielders and even Bichette high, Suárez could be the sort who winds up with a strong deal from a lower-revenue team willing to overpay on a shorter term.

Others who play on the dirt worth monitoring: Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto, Brewers first baseman Rhys Hoskins, Cubs super-utility man Willi Castro and one more, who has one of the most fascinating free agent cases in years.

10. Why did it take you this long to mention the three-time batting champion?

Padres infielder Luis Arraez is one of the most intriguing free agents in years because he is exceptional at a few things, mediocre at everything else and has no obvious comparable player this century. On the good side: Nobody strikes out as infrequently as Arraez, who has just 17 punchouts in 587 plate appearances. Because he puts the ball in play so much, Arraez tends to have a high batting average, too. He won three consecutive batting titles before slumping to .285 this season.

On the other hand, Arraez, one of the younger players in the class at 28, has minimal power, is a below-average defender, can’t run and doesn’t walk. If it weren’t for the extreme bat-to-ball skills, Arraez would not be in the big leagues.

Arraez’s free agency isn’t exactly the litmus test for the value of batting average in modern baseball, but it’s a reasonable signal amid plenty of noise. Batting average matters. Plenty. It doesn’t matter as much as on-base percentage — which, until this year, Arraez had at a .372 clip — or slugging percentage. (Teams tolerate low-average, high-slug players and eagerly avoid high-average, low-slug sorts.) But it matters, and when compounded with the paucity of strikeouts, it’s an asset to whichever team signs him. The question of how much they’ll pay him remains open.