MLB playoff pressure rankings: Which World Series contenders must win now — or else?
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Bradford Doolittle
Which playoff team most needs to win the World Series?
This is a question we try to answer around this time every year. What builds the pressure to win right now? The answer is a little different for every team, and the force of that pressure changes with each passing season. Teams age. Free agents leave and arrive. Playoff disappointments pile up. Playoff absences chafe.
The more success a team has without winning it all, the more the pressure builds up. Not until it wins it all does that pressure finally release, resetting the valve, and fans of that team can relax. Only the Dodgers’ faithful are in a state of pure release — because L.A. won just last year.
Let’s take a look at how the current contenders rate on the pressure scale.
The Pressure Index formula
The original incarnation of our system was based on an old Bill James method for calculating “pressure points.” Last year, we tweaked our methodology a little to add measurable narrative-based factors to the numbers-based historical context, and that worked pretty well, so we’ve carried that over for the coming 2025 MLB playoffs.
The revised Pressure Index considers the following factors, ranked in order by the weight they carry in the final calculation:
1. Drought pressure: This is all about flags, both World Series titles and pennants. The championship part of this factor counts twice as much as the pennant factor. The current leader is the Cleveland Guardians, owners of baseball’s longest title drought at 76 years. Teams coming off a title — e.g., the Dodgers — have no drought pressure. The New York Yankees, as the defending American League champs, get a little release from the drought factor for ending their pennant-less streak, but the pressure won’t fully dissipate until the Bombers win it all.
2. Knock-knock pressure: There is a whole different pressure for a franchise that lingers well below .500 year after year than there is for a franchise that consistently plays winning baseball and yet can’t seem to get anywhere in October. Looking at the most recent 25-year window, the knock-knock factor counts winning seasons weighted from most recent to most distant. The Yankees, with their active streak of 33 straight winning seasons, have the most knock-knock points. The 2025 season standings were included in this calculation.
3. Flickering star pressure: Using AXE ratings, we calculate the average AXE of a team’s pending free agents. Players with a club option are not included in this tally. Using the average adds to the pressure of clubs such as the Philadelphia Phillies, who have star players (Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Ranger Suarez) about to hit free agency.
4. Exodus pressure: Another free agent factor: Using AXE ratings again, we tally the total AXE points for a team’s pending free agents. Again, players with a club option are not included. Losing a star player hurts — but so does having a lot of holes to fill.
5. Father Time pressure: Time comes for us all. The older a team is, the shorter its window of opportunity for elite contention. This factor is based on average team ages, hitters and pitchers combined.
The rankings
Note: This includes every team that currently has at least a 5% chance at making the postseason, per our daily simulations.
Pressure Index: 109.5
Last pennant: 1982
Last World Series title: Never
The Brewers topped our leaderboard a year ago and went on to drop a tough wild-card series at American Family Field to the Mets. Then, despite preseason forecasts that marked them as a fringe playoff hopeful, they went out and put up what might well end up as the most successful regular season in franchise history. Based on what we’ve seen to date, the Brewers have never been in a better position to win their first World Series. They’ve had great regular seasons before — perhaps not as great as this one — but the only thing that will quench the ever-thirsty fans in Wisconsin is the city’s first MLB championship since the 1957 Milwaukee Braves.
Pressure Index: 108.0
Last pennant: 1998
Last World Series title: Never
The Brewers have gone longer without a pennant and have also piled up more good seasons than San Diego, or else the Pads might have landed in the top spot. There isn’t a factor for trade deadline aggression, but if there were, the Padres might have overtaken the Brewers for that reason, too. Because many of the players moved at the deadline tend to be headed for free agency, that’s a pretty good proxy for the kind of internally generated pressure that goes with an aggressive deadline approach. The Padres have the third-most exodus points and are fifth in the flickering star column. Among those who might hit the market are Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez and Michael King (mutual option) and Robert Suarez (player option). Given that list and A.J. Preller’s frenetic deadline behavior, the time to win for San Diego is very much right now.
Pressure Index: 107.8
Last pennant: Never
Last World Series title: Never
Speaking of deadline activity, the Mariners’ pickups of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez signaled a clear win-now approach. Both will be free agents after the season. Beyond that, as the only active team that has never won a pennant, the pressure has been building in Seattle since the day the Mariners debuted in 1977. Finally, though Cal Raleigh‘s history-making breakout season doesn’t factor into the Pressure Index, you could argue that in a sense it should because we can’t expect to see him at this level after 2025. That’s not a knock on him — he should remain an All-Star-caliber backstop. But few have ever reached the pinnacle Raleigh is at in 2025, and those who have gotten there have tended not to stay there.
Pressure Index: 106.5
Last pennant: 2016
Last World Series title: 1948
A late-season surge, combined with the Tigers’ collapse, has resoundingly returned the Guardians to this portion of our rankings. As has been the case the past couple of years, the Guardians’ pressure is almost entirely generated by their decades-long title drought. There are so many ways to contextualize it, but here’s a fun one: The last time Cleveland won the World Series, one of its top relief pitchers was Satchel Paige. Because winning a pennant relieves the drought points column a little, the Guardians’ 2016 pennant is recent enough to keep them behind the top three on this list in that area. However, only two teams have more knock-knock points than the consistently solid Guardians — the Yankees and Cardinals.
Pressure Index: 105.1
Last pennant: 1993
Last World Series title: 1993
The Blue Jays’ rise from fifth place to first place in the AL East has ratcheted up the tension for a franchise that hasn’t seen the World Series in more than three decades despite a number of strong teams during that span. The Jays also have some big-name free agents in Bo Bichette, Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt and Shane Bieber, who has a player option. Imagine what the pressure might feel like if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had not inked an extension back in April.
Pressure Index: 104.6
Last pennant: 2015
Last World Series title: 1986
If we based these ratings on media scrutiny and payroll, the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers would never fall out of the top three slots. For the Mets, their real-world pressure can’t be captured by an algorithm like this, mostly because of a combination of preseason expectation fueled by the addition of Juan Soto in the offseason, and the downward-pointing trajectory of what once looked like a banner season. If the Mets capture the NL’s last postseason spot — not even close to a sure thing at this point — the consternation generated by their lackluster second half can be addressed with a deep playoff run. But that doesn’t feel too likely at the moment.
Pressure Index: 104.5
Last pennant: 2024
Last World Series title: 2009
The defending AL champs! Good enough? Didn’t think so. The World Series returned to the Bronx last fall, but watching the Dodgers celebrate a title at Yankee Stadium didn’t do much to turn down the temperature on fan expectation. There was also the Soto factor, given his possible departure, which of course came to pass. Still, the Yankees restocked in free agency, added aggressively at the deadline and added even more points to their MLB-leading knock-knock total with a 33rd straight winning season. But let’s face it: This is the Yankees, and the only thing that will ease the scrutiny is a championship.
Pressure Index: 102.8
Last pennant: 2012
Last World Series title: 1984
Last season’s playoff berth felt like found money for the Tigers. Not so this time around, as Detroit has led the AL Central for virtually the entire season. Its lead over Cleveland in the division, once in double figures, has all but disappeared, and what looked like a certain return to the playoffs is now in doubt. A four-decade title drought feeds the Tigers’ Pressure Index, as does a fairly splashy free agent class that includes Kyle Finnegan, Jack Flaherty (player option), Charlie Morton, Alex Cobb, Chris Paddack, Tommy Kahnle and Gleyber Torres. Still, even if Detroit’s late-season swoon culminates in an early playoff exit, Tigers fans can take solace in a young roster core and a loaded minor league system. This is only the beginning of the adventure.
Pressure Index: 101.4
Last pennant: 2022
Last World Series title: 2008
Drought points are the most heavily weighted factor in the system, and the Phillies’ 2008 title and 2022 pennant are recent enough to keep their score low in that category. But they still land in the top 10 of the Pressure Index because of their looming free agent class (led by Schwarber and Ranger Suarez) and a veteran roster that ranks second in overall average team age. Under GM Dave Dombrowski, the Phillies have been building with the near-term window at the forefront of their planning for a few years now. At some point, and soon, it needs to pay off with their third World Series crown in 143 years of existence.
Pressure Index: 101.2
Last pennant: 1990
Last World Series title: 1990
The Reds’ Mets-fueled playoff odds resurgence lands them here in the contenders’ group, where Cincinnati’s ever-growing drought in both the championship and pennant columns looms large. This isn’t in the calculation, but you might also consider the Reds’ dynamic young rotation as a soft factor. The way Hunter Greene and Brady Singer have thrown lately, and the way Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott have pitched for much of the season, you’d love to see what the Reds might do in a playoff context. And although these are all pretty young pitchers — and the Reds have more in the pipeline — pitching is a mercurial thing. You want to take advantage of it while it’s going good.
Pressure Index: 99.9
Last pennant: 2016
Last World Series title: 2016
Coming to you live from Chicago: We can report that the euphoria over the Cubs’ drought-ending championship in 2016 is largely yesterday’s news. (No, it won’t be forgotten, but it’s been nine years, after all.) The Cubs entered the season as the NL Central favorite, and although it’s been a strong campaign on the North Side, they are looking at a wild-card berth. That’s progress — the Cubs had missed the playoffs four years running — and expectations remain high. A midseason offensive slump was a cause for concern, but the Cubs have been going well of late. Hovering over all this is the pending free agency of the Cubs’ splashy offseason pickup, outfielder Kyle Tucker.
Pressure Index: 99.4
Last pennant: 2023
Last World Series title: 2001
You could argue the Diamondbacks don’t really have any pressure on them at all. For one thing, they have been a fringe hopeful, one that needed the continuing cooperation of the flagging Mets to stay alive. Arizona also waved a faint white flag in advance of the deadline by dealing Naylor and Suarez. But the Diamondbacks’ offense has been strong over the past few weeks, keeping their postseason window ajar. After all this, if Arizona ends up in the bracket, it’ll have to feel like it’s got nothing to lose.
Pressure Index: 99.3
Last pennant: 2018
Last World Series title: 2018
The Red Sox, once synonymous with the concept of “championship drought,” are good in that crucial column at present. Sure, in Boston, seven years without a banner might feel like a long time after the Red Sox’s run of four titles in 15 years, but it’s really not. Boston does rank high in the knock-knock column (fourth) and in the flickering star category (second). That’s because of possible free agencies for Alex Bregman and Trevor Story (both have player options). It would be worse if Aroldis Chapman had not signed an extension.
Pressure Index: 97.3
Last pennant: 2022
Last World Series title: 2022
The Astros aren’t dealing with a drought. But the roster is on the old side (ninth in average age) and is looking at the possible free agent departure of Framber Valdez. The window felt like it was starting to close when we entered the season, and the Astros have teetered more than once through the summer. After a weekend sweep by the rival Mariners, those wishing for a Houston-less postseason are feeling more hopeful than ever. The declining Astros need to take advantage of this contention opportunity while they can.
Pressure Index: 90.0
Last pennant: 2024
Last World Series title: 2024
The Dodgers’ drought points reset with last season’s title. At the same time, Los Angeles puts pressure on itself by funneling so many resources into building and managing its roster. There is no pressure on the Dodgers in the context of the Pressure Index approach, but L.A. has created a dynamic where you have to consider any season in which it doesn’t win as at least a mild disappointment. Then of course there is one major soft factor for this year’s Dodgers: This is the last go-round for Clayton Kershaw, and the desire to send him into retirement with a second straight championship has to be looming large in the organization.
Pressure Index for all other teams
16. Baltimore Orioles (103.3)
17. Pittsburgh Pirates (102.2)
18. Athletics (102.1)
19. Minnesota Twins (101.6)
20. St. Louis Cardinals (100.5)
21. Los Angeles Angels (99.7)
22. Tampa Bay Rays (98.2)
23. Atlanta Braves (97.6)
24. San Francisco Giants (96.9)
25. Chicago White Sox (96.5)
26. Texas Rangers (95.6)
27. Colorado Rockies (96.1)
28. Kansas City Royals (95.1)
29. Washington Nationals (92.9)
30. Miami Marlins (84.1)
After a split north of the border, the 2025 World Series is headed to Hollywood.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays each won a game in Canada. Now, a pivotal Game 3 — with a marquee pitching match between a future Hall of Famer and yet another L.A. ace — will determine who has the advantage moving forward.
We’re posting live analysis all game long — and will add our takeaways after the final pitch.
Key links: World Series schedule, results
Live analysis
Gamecast: Follow the action pitch-by-pitch here
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Michael Rothstein
SANTA ANA, Calif. — The ex-wife of former Los Angeles Angels communications employee Eric Kay testified Monday that the organization was aware of his drug abuse multiple times before Kay supplied the drugs that killed Angels pitcher Tyler Skaggs in 2019.
Camela Kay testified in the wrongful death civil suit that she witnessed team employees and players distributing nonprescription drugs to each other, including once on a team plane where she described opioid pills being handed out. Her testimony was repeatedly interrupted with objections by team attorneys.
Camela Kay’s testimony contradicted that of the first two witnesses of the trial — Eric Kay’s ex-boss Tim Mead, the former director of communications, and Angels traveling secretary Tom Taylor. Mead and Taylor both testified they were not aware of Kay’s drug use and whether he was providing drugs to players until after Skaggs’ accidental overdose death in a Texas hotel room in 2019.
Eric Kay was convicted in 2022 of giving a fentanyl-laced pill to Skaggs that led to his death. Kay is serving a 22-year federal prison sentence.
The Skaggs family is seeking $118 million and possible additional damages, claiming the team violated its rules requiring intervention, including potential dismissal, of any employee known to be abusing drugs. The family asserts that allowing Kay to interact with Skaggs, when both had addiction problems, set the conditions for disaster.
Plaintiff’s attorney Shawn Holley said in her opening statement last week that the Angels put Skaggs “directly in harm’s way” by continuing to employ Eric Kay.
Camela Kay testified that, after an attempted intervention Oct. 1, 2017, when the couple was still married, Mead and Taylor came to the Kay home. She said Mead returned the next day to check on Kay. During that time, she testified, Mead came out of the Kay bedroom holding “six or seven” baggies of about six white pills each. Camela Kay used her fingers to show the size of the baggies, about 1 inch square.
“I was shocked,” she testified. “I questioned [Mead] and asked where he got those. He said Eric directed him and told him they were in shoeboxes.”
She said Mead then put them on a coffee table in front of where Eric Kay was sitting with Taylor.
In his earlier testimony, Mead said he recalled “very little of that morning” and did not remember asking Kay where drugs were, whether he went into Kay’s bedroom or if he found drugs in baggies there. Angels attorneys said in opening remarks that the team was not responsible for Skaggs’ death and was not aware of Skaggs’ illicit drug use or that Kay had provided drugs to multiple players. The defense also argued that Skaggs had used drugs when he was with the Arizona Diamondbacks, whom he played for before his time with the Angels.
Angels attorney Todd Theodora said it was Skaggs who “decided to obtain the illicit pills and take the illicit drugs along with the alcohol the night he died.”
Camela Kay testified she continued to have concerns about her ex-husband’s substance abuse and that she shared those concerns with Mead and Taylor.
She also said she never saw improvement in Eric Kay, even after he was sent to outpatient therapy following the failed 2017 intervention. Camela Kay testified — backed by text messages shown in court — that she had multiple conversations with Angels benefits manager Cecilia Schneider to get her husband into an outpatient rehabilitation program in 2017.
Kay also testified she had been on the Angels’ plane in the past and that she observed conduct on the plane that caused her concern. When asked about the conduct, she said, “I had seen them passing out pills and drinking alcohol excessively.”
Asked plaintiff’s attorney Leah Graham: “When you say observed them, who is the them?”
“Players, clubbies,” Kay replied, indicating she believed she saw Xanax and Percocet being handed out. She later said she was kept away from players on the plane, “but you can see what’s going on behind you” and when she would go to the bathroom.
In 2013, Camela Kay said, Mead and Taylor were at the team hotel after Eric Kay had a panic attack at Yankee Stadium in New York. It was there, Camela Kay said, where Eric Kay told her he was taking five Vicodin per day. She testified Taylor and Mead were there and heard the admission.
In 2019, she testified Monday afternoon, Taylor drove Eric Kay home after an episode of strange behavior at the office. She said she found a pill bottle in the gutter where Taylor’s car was parked, and she emptied the contents in front of Taylor — about 10 blue pills that she told him were oxycodone. She said she told Taylor her husband needed help. Eric Kay later went with his sister to the hospital, where he spent three days before starting outpatient rehab. She quoted Kay’s sister as saying the pills were for Skaggs.
In earlier testimony, Taylor said he drove Eric Kay home but denied that Camela Kay dumped blue pills out in front of him. He also denied that he was told they were oxycodone and that they were for Skaggs.
Camela Kay’s testimony continues Tuesday.
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Alden Gonzalez
LOS ANGELES — MLB commissioner Rob Manfred called major league player involvement in the 2028 Olympics “a unique opportunity to market the sport worldwide” and sounded optimistic while talking through the logistics of how that might work when the Games come to L.A. in summer 2028.
“The way we’re thinking about it is it would be an extension of the All-Star break,” Manfred said Monday in an interview on ESPN Radio ahead of Game 3 of the World Series. “The All-Star break would begin, we’d play the All-Star Game, and then roll right into the Olympics thereafter. So, it’d be probably 11 days of break, all in, something like that.”
MLB’s All-Star Game, traditionally on a Tuesday, would likely take place July 11 in 2028. Baseball in the Olympics is currently scheduled to be played July 15-20. If it works out, baseball’s regular season would pause for close to two weeks in the middle of July. Manfred reiterated to ESPN’s Jon Sciambi and Buster Olney that separating it into two breaks “gets really complicated” and would ultimately cause an even longer break because of the additional travel days required.
Manfred also shed light Monday on MLB and ESPN’s potential new rights deal, which has yet to be announced, saying there will be “a Wednesday night package” while making reference to the league’s streaming arm, MLB.TV, being part of ESPN’s direct-to-consumer offerings.
“There’s going to be integration in terms of local broadcasts that I think the folks at ESPN, and certainly we, look at as an experiment that can be really helpful to the game as we move forward in a rapidly changing environment,” Manfred said.
Asked what has him most excited about MLB, Manfred said, “International.” The 2025 season began in Japan, one year after beginning in South Korea. Next year, the World Baseball Classic will be played. And two years after that, the hope is that some of the world’s best baseball players will participate in the Olympics for the first time since 1992.
Casey Wasserman, chairman of the LA 2028 organizing committee, made what Manfred called “a really compelling presentation” to league owners on the subject, calling it a one-time opportunity with the Games being held in the United States. Manfred said MLB is “in the phase now of working with the players’ association to get them on board with the program.”
“It’s a unique opportunity to market the sport worldwide, and you ought to take advantage of it,” Manfred said. “So, that’s why we’re continuing down the road. I think the owners really buy into that idea. It is a complicated path. We’ve made great progress with LA 2028 in terms of scheduling, exactly what the tournament would look like, how the qualifiers would look, how it would fit into the Olympic program.”
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