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It takes more than one elite player to win the Stanley Cup. The repeat champion Florida Panthers continue to prove that is true — and the results of the NHL Rank poll for the 2025-26 season bear that out.

We asked a panel of ESPN broadcasters, analysts, reporters and editors to rate players based on how good they will be this season compared with their peers. Emphasis was placed on their value for this coming season, which explains why players who are out injured (but expected to return) might be lower than if they were healthy now.

In the case of the Panthers, this put Matthew Tkachuk a bit lower than usual, while Aleksander Barkov (who is expected to miss the regular season, if not longer) did not make the cut in the top 100.

Nevertheless, the defending champs put six players in the top 100, which was behind only the Dallas Stars‘ seven for most players to make the list.

As for individuals, Connor McDavid continued his reign as the top vote-getter, holding down the No. 1 spot again, as he did for 2024-25 and 2023-24 and 2022-22 and 2021-22 and … you get the idea.

Here’s the 1-100 list for 2025-26, featuring write-ups courtesy of ESPN reporters Ryan S. Clark, Kristen Shilton, Greg Wyshynski and editorial staff.

2024-25 rank: 1
Age: 28

Simply put, McDavid is the best player on the planet, the best player of his generation, and could finish his career as one of the best to ever touch a puck. An eight-time 100-point scorer, McDavid has captained the Oilers to consecutive Stanley Cup Finals; this season, the objective is having Edmonton win its first title since 1990. — Clark

2024-25 rank: 4
Age: 26

Many types of players are needed to win in the NHL. Among them, a puck-moving defenseman who can also be trusted to play heavy minutes in every scenario. Makar is just that, as the two-time Norris Trophy winner (given to the NHL’s best defenseman) is trusted to drive play in every scenario. — Clark

2024-25 rank: 3
Age: 30

The Avalanche? Team Canada? It doesn’t matter. Any team that has MacKinnon is going to pose a serious threat to win on a nightly basis. His combination of control, power, speed and unpredictability has made him one of the best in the world. Like McDavid, he has a chance to win a gold medal and a Stanley Cup in the same season. Unlike McDavid, the Cup would be his second after the Avs’ win in 2022. — Clark

2024-25 rank: 9
Age: 30

Since 2022-23, Draisaitl is second in goals scored (146) and goals per game (0.63). He’s a dominating offensive star who long ago put to bed the notion that he was simply a product of his teammate, Connor McDavid. — Wyshynski

2024-25 rank: 2
Age: 32

Kucherov led the NHL in points for a second consecutive season and for the third time since 2019. He can either score goals or create them for his teammates, which has been integral to the Lightning winning two titles during his time with the only club he has ever known. — Clark

2024-25 rank: 31
Age: 32

Only four goalies in the NHL’s expansion era (since 1967) have won the Hart Trophy as league MVP; Hellebuyck joined the fraternity in 2025, taking his spot with Carey Price, Jose Theodore and Dominik Hasek. Can Hellebuyck join Hasek as the only goaltenders to pull off the feat two years in a row? — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 12
Age: 26

Suggesting that Hughes can do everything asked of a contemporary defenseman isn’t an overstatement. The consistency he has shown in every scenario has made him one of the game’s best players, and someone who could be instrumental in the United States’ chase for a gold medal at the Olympics. — Clark

2024-25 rank: 6
Age: 28

There aren’t many goal scorers who are as pure as Matthews, who possess the sort of shot every player covets. He has tallied 30-plus goals in every season of his career — despite injuries — and does it all for the Leafs as a standout 200-foot center. — Shilton

2024-25 rank: 16
Age: 29

Talent has never been the question with Eichel. But last season, he unlocked aspects of his game that have made him one of the most complete centers in hockey. He’ll help push his team to capture its second title since 2023, while also helping the U.S. in its push for Olympic gold. — Clark

2024-25 rank: 8
Age: 29

Could his first full season in Dallas be the one that sees the Stars win the Stanley Cup that has eluded them over the past few years? Rantanen left Colorado in the NHL’s biggest trade last season and then made his way back to the Central Division in a subsequent deal. But with a long-term pact in hand, he’ll be a key player for the Stars for the foreseeable future. — Clark

2024-25 rank: 11
Age: 29

Pastrnak has scored over 40 goals in four consecutive seasons. Given his career total with the Bruins (391 entering this season), he could move all the way to third in franchise history if he notches another 40 goals in 2025-26. — Wyshynski

2024-25 rank: 27
Age: 31

Some might have surmised that Vasilevskiy was heading into a decline based on 2023-24, when his save percentage dipped to .900 after seven straight seasons at .915 or higher. The 2024-25 campaign ended that talk, as he registered a .921 mark along with a 2.18 GAA and 38 wins. The “Big Cat” can still roar. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 30
Age: 29

The Panthers pulled off a unique feat last season, placing two players in the top two spots in Selke Trophy voting. Florida captain Aleksander Barkov — who won the award — is likely out until April (if not longer), meaning Reinhart and others will have to pick up the slack on both ends of the ice. The scoring part won’t be a problem, as Reinhart has 127 goals in the past three seasons combined. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 26
Age: 29

A one-time Vezina Trophy winner (for now), Shesterkin is easily the best player drafted at No. 118 in NHL history. If the Rangers fail to make the postseason again, it won’t be because of their superstar goaltender. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 17
Age: 28

All anyone needs to know about Kaprizov and his value could be seen last season. Before he got hurt, he was among the front-runners for the Hart Trophy, and the Wild looked as if they could win the Central. But an injury meant that Kaprizov played in just 41 regular-season games. The Wild struggled to score goals in his absence before his eventual return helped them capture a wild-card spot. — Clark

2024-25 rank: 25
Age: 26

Brady Tkachuk captained the Senators to their first Stanley Cup playoff berth since 2017. His goal scoring and physicality will be vital not only to Ottawa in the NHL, but also to Team USA in the 2026 Olympics. — Wyshynski

2024-25 rank: 23
Age: 34

The 6-7 blueliner remains a dominant presence in both ends of the ice: 66 points in 79 games last season, while using physicality and his considerable wingspan to disrupt opponents in his own zone. — Wyshynski

2024-25 rank: 14
Age: 28

Marner is the unique skater who dominates individually while also elevating literally any linemate he’s paired with. A force on special teams — his penalty killing is particularly good — Marner is more likely to try setting up a goal than attempting to score one himself. And the Golden Knights are counting on his playmaking to carry them for years to come — Shilton

2024-25 rank: 35
Age: 26

Part of the Stars’ legendary 2017 draft class (with Miro Heiskanen and Jake Oettinger), Robertson has 269 points in 246 games the past three regular seasons. His line with Roope Hintz and Mikko Rantanen will be one of the NHL’s most dangerous this season. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 58
Age: 28

The Michigan native removed any sense of uncertainty for next summer by signing a team-record $96 million contract extension on the eve of the season — then opened the campaign with a hat trick against the Stars. He’ll also be a key player for the U.S. in the Olympic Games. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 13
Age: 38

Father Time? Crosby has never heard of him, apparently. The Penguins’ captain is playing as well now as he has throughout a legendary career that kept Pittsburgh as a contender for nearly two decades. And Crosby shows no signs of wanting to slow down. — Shilton

2024-25 rank: 55
Age: 38

Season No. 20 will be the last one in the NHL for Kopitar, by far the best hockey player ever from Slovenia — he has outscored second-place Jan Mursak 1,281 to 4 heading into this season. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 63
Age: 26

The Devils’ captain built another strong case for a Selke Trophy in 2024-25 and finished fourth in the voting, garnering 11 first-place votes. Another standout season could see him land in the finalists’ circle. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 49
Age: 29

The heart and soul of the Red Wings, Larkin turned heads with his excellent two-way play during the 4 Nations Face-Off. Can he lead the Red Wings back to the postseason? — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 22
Age: 26

There are sitcoms that have episodes with lesser run time than Heiskanen averages in a game. He’s frequently in the discussion for the league’s best shutdown defenseman, and he’d receive even more acclaim if he had offensive numbers similar to some of his peers. — Clark

2024-25 rank: 32
Age: 29

With Mitch Marner now plying his trade for the Golden Knights, the Leafs will need continued production out of the elite scorers who remain — and Nylander is certainly one of them, with 125 goals in the past three seasons combined. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 34
Age: 31

Forsberg was not immune to whatever plagued the Predators in 2024-25, as his 76 points was a steep decline from 94 the season prior. Will 2025-26 be a rebound for him personally and for his team? — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 19
Age: 28

The top center on the Hurricanes, Aho is a point-per-game offensive player whose defensive play fits the Carolina tradition of two-way play. — Wyshynski

2024-25 rank: 62
Age: 40

The greatest goal scorer in NHL history began the 2025-26 campaign with 897 career tallies. How many will he add to his total this season — and will it be his last in the NHL? — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 64
Age: 27

One of the snubs left off the United States’ 4 Nations Face-off roster, the 27-year-old Thompson has extra motivation to get off to a fast start to get his name on the list for the Olympics. Getting on a pace for 40-plus goals (as he has done twice in his young career) would be a good start. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 39
Age: 28

Part of the Stars’ “Finnish Mafia,” Hintz’s 200-foot game means that opponents have to construct their game plan around him. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 21
Age: 29

Point had always been a dangerous offensive player, but his goal scoring has exploded over the past three seasons (139 goals) while taking passes from former league MVP Nikita Kucherov on his wing. — Wyshynski

2024-25 rank: 24
Age: 26

Does Elias Pettersson still belong among the top 25 players in the NHL? That’s what the Canucks star is trying to prove in 2025-26 after injuries and locker room drama contributed to the worst offensive season of his career. — Wyshynski

2024-25 rank: 18
Age: 31

Jake Guentzel has earned the chance to skate with the greatest. He was Sidney Crosby’s linemate for eight seasons in Pittsburgh. Last season, his first with the Lightning, he scored a career-high 41 goals on a line with Nikita Kucherov. — Wyshynski

2024-25 rank: 33
Age: 26

The man they call “Otter” has been everything the Stars wanted after they selected him 26th in the 2017 draft, including 151 wins in 253 career games and a 2.54 GAA. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 15
Age: 24

When Jack Hughes is in the lineup, he’s one of the most gifted playmakers in the NHL, averaging 1.13 points per game last season. The trick has been staying in the lineup, as Hughes has played over 70 games only once in the past four seasons with the Devils. — Wyshynski

2024-25 rank: 28
Age: 32

The newest captain of the Rangers was brought in to set a new tone as the Blueshirts hope their playoff absence last season was an aberration. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 7
Age: 33

The Rangers have had their ups and downs. Panarin has been a spark plug in their offense through it all. His speed, vision and playmaking skills are top end, and when he’s consistently contributing, New York can look unstoppable up front. — Shilton

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 24

The 5-8 scoring winger has earned social media shoutouts from fellow Wisconsin native J.J. Watt and is looking to breach the 40-goal benchmark after notching 37 last season. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 50
Age: 27

The Chesterfield, Missouri, native is one of the NHL’s underappreciated scorers, with 90 points in 81 games last season. That will change if the Mammoth qualify for the postseason this spring. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 74
Age: 28

Perhaps no player boosted his stock more during the 4 Nations Face-Off than Werenski, who is arguably Columbus’ most important player. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 23

A rising star for the Hurricanes and Team Canada — and on “FaceOff: Inside the NHL” — Jarvis will be a critical player in Carolina’s quest for its first Cup since 2006. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 57
Age: 32

The first player drafted by the Jets 2.0 franchise after relocating from Atlanta, Scheifele continues to fill the stat sheet as both scorer and playmaker. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 79
Age: 27

Whether Jack Hughes is in the lineup or not, Bratt continues to drive offense for the Devils, with 171 points in 163 games the past two regular seasons. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 20
Age: 35

What makes him the greatest hockey player Switzerland has ever seen has been the consistency. A threat to reach double figures in goals, Josi is equally effective in the defensive zone, as he has anchored the Preds’ defensive setup for more than a decade. — Clark

2024-25 rank: 85
Age: 29

Kings fans have known of Kempe’s scoring prowess for many seasons — and the ESPN voting panel has finally caught up. As the Kings move on from the Kopitar era beginning next season, Kempe will continue to be a foundational player. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 83
Age: 37

The legends of “Playoff Bob” are many, as the Russian veteran has backstopped the past two Cup champs. But, he continues to be a reliable regular-season netminder as well, with 69 wins and a sub-2.50 GAA the past two seasons combined. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 86
Age: 23

The latest elite Scandinavian import plying his trade for the Red Wings, Raymond will look to eclipse his career-best 80 points from 2024-25. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 53
Age: 23

Faber finished second for the Calder Trophy following the 2023-24 season and has become a blue-line bedrock for his home state Wild. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: 71
Age: 23

A near point-per-game player for the past two regular seasons, the 23-year-old native of Germany added five goals in the Sens’ six-game return to the playoffs in 2025. — ESPN staff

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 19

2024-25 rank: 38
Age: 27

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 24

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 35

2024-25 rank: 44
Age: 25

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 22

2024-25 rank: 45
Age: 20

2024-25 rank: 41
Age: 27

2024-25 rank: 88
Age: 27

2024-25 rank: 37
Age: 25

2024-25 rank: 66
Age: 22

2024-25 rank: 46
Age: 25

2024-25 rank: HM
Age: 26

2024-25 rank: 68
Age: 29

2024-25 rank: 48
Age: 37

2024-25 rank: 60
Age: 30

2024-25 rank: 72
Age: 35

2024-25 rank: 96
Age: 31

2024-25 rank: 95
Age: 26

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 26

2024-25 rank: 42
Age: 28

2024-25 rank: 5
Age: 27

2024-25 rank: 82
Age: 31

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 20

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 31

2024-25 rank: 90
Age: 29

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 21

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 27

2024-25 rank: 43
Age: 30

2024-25 rank: 29
Age: 33

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 24

2024-25 rank: HM
Age: 26

2024-25 rank: 40
Age: 35

2024-25 rank: 59
Age: 24

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 31

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 23

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 20

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 23

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 23

2024-25 rank: 84
Age: 31

2024-25 rank: 76
Age: 32

2024-25 rank: 36
Age: 30

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 22

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 27

2024-25 rank: 47
Age: 26

2024-25 rank: 93
Age: 27

2024-25 rank: HM
Age: 21

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 22

2024-25 rank: 78
Age: 33

2024-25 rank: NR
Age: 30

Honorable mentions

Note: Players are listed in alphabetical order.

Mackenzie Blackwood, G, Colorado Avalanche
Leo Carlsson, C, Anaheim Ducks
Thatcher Demko, G, Vancouver Canucks
Nikolaj Ehlers, LW, Carolina Hurricanes
Aaron Ekblad, D, Florida Panthers
Dougie Hamilton, D, New Jersey Devils
Tomas Hertl, C, Vegas Golden Knights
Evgeni Malkin, C, Pittsburgh Penguins
Colton Parayko, D, St. Louis Blues
Dylan Strome, C, Washington Capitals

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CFP Bubble Watch: Who’s in, who’s out, who has work to do at midseason

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5 hours ago

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October 15, 2025

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CFP Bubble Watch: Who's in, who's out, who has work to do at midseason

Week 7 shook up the College Football Playoff picture. No team earned a more impactful result than Indiana, whose win at Oregon is now the best in the country during the first half of the season. Indiana’s playoff chances jumped 21%, climbing to a 93% chance to make the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

Not only are the Hoosiers off the bubble, but Indiana also is chasing a first-round bye as one of the top four seeds, having cemented its place alongside Ohio State and Miami as one of the nation’s best teams.

Indiana wasn’t the only winner, though, as South Florida and Texas Tech both saw their playoff chances jump by at least 15%.

Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.

The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.

Reminder: This will change from week to week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Spotlight: Tennessee. The Vols have looked like a borderline playoff team against unranked opponents in recent weeks, beating Mississippi State and Arkansas by a combined 10 points with one overtime. Offensively they’ve been elite, averaging 300 yards passing and 200 rushing per game. Defensively, they need to stop the run to make to challenge in the SEC. They’ll have a chance against Alabama on Saturday to further legitimize their hopes. With a win, Tennessee’s chances of reaching the playoff would jump to 52%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Tennessee ranks No. 10 in ESPN’s game control metric and No. 19 in strength of record. The Vols are projected in the committee’s No. 12 spot this week, which means they would get knocked out of the actual field during the seeding process to make room for the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff, so if the fifth team is ranked outside of the committee’s top 12, its No. 12 team gets the boot.

Enigma: Texas. The Longhorns took a baby step toward a return to CFP relevance with a big win against Oklahoma, but it was their first win against a Power 4 opponent and their first against a ranked team. Texas has the 15th-most-difficult remaining schedule, and with two losses is already in a precarious position. The Longhorns will play three of their next four opponents on the road (at Kentucky, Mississippi State and Georgia). There were encouraging signs from the win against the rival Sooners, from the stingy defense that flustered quarterback John Mateer all game to what looked like an improved offensive line that gave quarterback Arch Manning some time to throw. He completed 16 of 17 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown when under no duress. If Texas can continue to put it all together against the heart of its SEC schedule, it could make a run to be one of the committee’s top two-loss teams.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

On the cusp: Tennessee

Work to do: Missouri, Texas, Vanderbilt

Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina

Big Ten

Spotlight: USC. The Trojans have looked like a CFP top 25 team through the first half of the season, with their only loss a close one on the road to a ranked Illinois team. In Week 7, USC’s convincing 31-13 win against Michigan pushed it into more serious Big Ten contention. Ohio State and Indiana are the leaders, followed by Oregon, but USC has the fourth-best chance (7.1%) to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics. That will change when the Trojans go to Oregon on Nov. 22, but they don’t play Ohio State or Indiana during the regular season. A win at Notre Dame on Saturday would be a significant boost to USC’s playoff résumé, while simultaneously knocking the Irish out of playoff contention. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, USC’s chances of reaching the playoff would adjust to 58% with a win against Notre Dame. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has less than a 50% chance to win its games against Notre Dame and Oregon.

Enigma: Washington. The Huskies have improved significantly and quickly under coach Jedd Fisch, who’s in his second season. Their only loss was to Ohio State, 24-6, on Sept. 27, but they lack a statement win that gives them real postseason credibility. Wins at Washington State and Maryland are certainly respectable, but bigger opportunities loom starting on Saturday at Michigan. This game has significant implications, because if the Huskies can win, they stand a strong chance of hosting Oregon as a one-loss team in the regular-season finale. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan has a 67.6% chance to win on Saturday, and Oregon has a 70% chance to beat Washington on Nov. 29. The Huskies are projected to win every other game, though. A win against Michigan could increase their playoff hopes significantly.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon

On the cusp: USC

Work to do: Nebraska, Washington

Would be out: Iowa, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin

ACC

Spotlight: Georgia Tech. Raise your hand if you had Georgia Tech at Duke on Saturday circled as a game that would impact the College Football Playoff. The Yellow Jackets would have been the next team to crack the latest CFP projection this week, and their chances of reaching the ACC championship game will skyrocket if they can win at Duke. Georgia Tech currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, Duke and Virginia. ESPN Analytics gives the Blue Devils a 61.8% chance to win. The only other projected loss on the Jackets’ schedule is the regular-season finale against Georgia. Even if Georgia Tech reaches the ACC title game and loses, it could get in as a second ACC team with a win over Georgia.

Enigma: Virginia. The Hoos have won back-to-back overtime games against Florida State and Louisville, putting themselves in contention for a spot in the ACC championship. They host a tricky Washington State team on Saturday that just gave Ole Miss a few headaches, though, and need to avoid a second loss to an unranked team. The toughest game left on their schedule is Nov. 15 at Duke. Without an ACC title, Virginia is going to have a tough time impressing the committee with a schedule that includes a loss to unranked NC State and possibly no wins against ranked opponents. It didn’t help the Hoos that Florida State lost to an unranked Pitt, as the win against the Noles was the highlight of their season so far.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Miami

On the cusp: Georgia Tech

Work to do: Virginia

Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Big 12

Spotlight: BYU. The Cougars needed a late-night double-overtime win at Arizona to stay undefeated and are on the path to face Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game. The question is if they can stay undefeated until the Nov. 8 regular-season matchup against the Red Raiders. BYU has its second-most difficult remaining game on Saturday against rival Utah, which is also in contention for the Big 12 title. BYU has a slim edge with a 51% chance to win, which would be a critical cushion considering back-to-back road trips to Iowa State and Texas Tech await. The Big 12 has also gotten a boost from Cincinnati, which has a favorable remaining schedule and could be a surprise CFP top 25 team. If BYU stumbles over the next three weeks, a road win at a ranked Cincinnati team would help its résumé. Speaking of the Bearcats …

Enigma: Cincinnati. Is this team for real? The Bearcats have won five straight since their 20-17 season-opening loss to Nebraska, including three straight against Big 12 opponents Kansas, Iowa State and UCF. All three of those teams are .500 or better, and the selection committee will respect that as long as it holds. Cincinnati also has November opportunities against Utah and BYU, which could change the playoff picture in the Big 12. ESPN Analytics gives the Bearcats less than a 50% chance to beat Utah, BYU and TCU.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Texas Tech

On the cusp: BYU

Work to do: Cincinnati, Houston, Utah

Would be out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia

Independent

Would be out: Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have the best chance to win out of any team in the FBS, with a 49% chance to finish 10-2. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Notre Dame would have a 50% chance to reach the CFP if it runs the table. That seems accurate, given the selection committee would compare Notre Dame against the other 10-2 contenders, and it’s a coin toss as to whether the room would agree that the Irish’s résumé and film make them worthy of an at-large bid. How Miami and Texas A&M fare will impact this — as will the head-to-head results if those teams don’t win their respective leagues and are also competing with the Irish for one of those at-large spots. It helps Notre Dame that opponents USC and Navy could finish as CFP top 25 teams if they continue to win. Undefeated Navy could also make a run at the Group of 5 playoff spot.

Group of 5

Spotlight: South Florida. South Florida. The Bulls are back on top after their convincing 63-36 win at previously undefeated North Texas, which just a week ago was listed here as a potential Group of 5 contender. Following the win, the Bulls’ chances of reaching the CFP increased by 20%, according to ESPN Analytics. South Florida’s lone loss was Sept. 13 at Miami, 49-12, which was a significant defeat against what could be the committee’s No. 1 team. Although that result showed the gap between the Bulls and one of the nation’s top teams, it certainly didn’t eliminate South Florida, which has one of the best overall résumés of the other contenders. With wins against Boise State, Florida and now at North Texas, this is a team that earned the edge in this week’s latest projection. Still, South Florida has the second-best chance of any Group of 5 school to reach the playoff (30%) behind Memphis (42%), according to ESPN Analytics.

Enigma: UNLV. Undefeated UNLV survived a scare from 1-5 Air Force on Saturday to stay undefeated and in contention for a playoff spot. UNLV and Boise State, both of the Mountain West Conference, are the only teams outside of the American Conference with at least a 5% chance to reach the playoff, and they play each other in a critical game on Saturday. UNLV has scored at least 30 points in each of its six games this season and is 6-0 for the first time since 1974, but it hasn’t always been pretty. UNLV scored the winning touchdown against Air Force with 36 seconds left and allowed the Falcons 603 total yards. The Rebels have the fourth-best chance to reach the playoff at 9% behind the American’s Memphis, South Florida and Tulane.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: South Florida

Work to do: Memphis, Navy, Tulane, UNLV

Bracket

Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Indiana
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Indiana
No. 10 Oklahoma/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

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2025 NLCS: Live updates and analysis from Game 2

Published

5 hours ago

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October 15, 2025

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2025 NLCS: Live updates and analysis from Game 2

  • ESPN

Oct 14, 2025, 10:25 PM ET

The opener of the National League Championship Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Milwaukee Brewers had a little bit of everything.

So what can we expect in Game 2? We’ve got you covered with the top moments from today’s game, as well as takeaways after the final out.

Key links: How this NLCS could decide if baseball is played in 2027 | Bracket

Top moments

Follow pitch-by-pitch on Gamecast

Ohtani gets in on the fun with RBI single

Muncy’s drive adds to L.A.’s lead

Dodgers take their first lead of Game 2

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Passan: Why a Dodgers-Brewers NLCS could define MLB’s labor battle

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5 hours ago

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October 15, 2025

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Passan: Why a Dodgers-Brewers NLCS could define MLB's labor battle

The winner of the National League Championship Series could determine whether Major League Baseball is played in 2027.

This might sound far-fetched. It is not. What looks like a best-of-seven baseball series, which starts Monday as the Milwaukee Brewers host the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1, will play out as a proxy of the coming labor war between MLB and the MLB Players Association.

Owners across the game want a salary cap — and if the Dodgers, with their record $500 million-plus payroll, win back-to-back World Series, it will only embolden the league’s push to regulate salaries. The Brewers, consistently a bottom-third payroll team, emerging triumphant would serve as the latest evidence that winners can germinate even in the game’s smallest markets and that the failures of other low-revenue teams have less to do with spending than execution.

The truth, of course, exists somewhere in between. But in between is not where the two parties stake out their negotiating positions in what many expect to be a brutal fight to determine the future of the game’s economics. And that is why whoever comes out victorious likely will be used as a cudgel when formal negotiations begin next spring for the next version of the collective bargaining agreement that expires Dec. 1, 2026.

If it’s the Dodgers, MLB owners — who already were vocal publicly and even more so privately about Los Angeles spending as much as the bottom six teams in payroll combined this year — will likely cry foul even louder. Already, MLB is expected to lock out players upon the agreement’s expiration. Back-to-back championships by the Dodgers could embolden MLB and add to a chorus of fans who see a cap as a panacea for the plague of big-money teams monopolizing championships over the past decade.

Such a scenario would not scare the union off its half-century-old anti-cap stance. The MLBPA has no intention of negotiating if a cap remains on the table, and considering MLB was on the cusp of losing games in 2022 because of a negotiation that didn’t include a cap, players already have spoken among themselves about how to weather missing time in 2027. Certainly, the Brewers winning wouldn’t ensure avoiding that, but if in any argument about the necessity of a cap, the union can counter that the juggernaut Dodgers lost to a team of self-proclaimed Average Joes with a payroll a quarter of the size, it reinforces the point that team-building acumen can exist regardless of financial might.

The Brewers have joined the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians as vanguards of low-revenue success in this decade. Over the past eight years, Milwaukee has won five NL Central titles and made the playoffs seven times. At 97-65 this year, the Brewers owned the best record in baseball. And they did so with a unique blend of players.

Of the 26 players on Milwaukee’s NLCS roster, 15 came via trade, according to ESPN Research, including a majority of its best players (slugger Christian Yelich, catcher William Contreras, ace Freddy Peralta and Trevor Megill, the closer for most of the season). The Brewers drafted four (Brice Turang, Jacob Misiorowski, Sal Frelick and Aaron Ashby, all major contributors), signed three as minor league free agents, brought in two via international amateur free agency (their best player, Jackson Chourio, and closer Abner Uribe) and snagged one in the minor league portion of the offseason Rule 5 draft.

That leaves one major league free agent. One. And it was left-hander Jose Quintana, who signed a one-year, $4 million deal in March.

Think about that: The MLBPA, which has fought for free agency since its inception, would be heralding a team that does not spend on free agents. Strange bedfellows, yes, but it strengthens the union’s position: If the current system is beyond repair because of money, how did a team that doesn’t spend win a championship?

The Dodgers, on the other hand, are not nearly as free-agent-heavy as might be assumed. They’ve acquired the most players via trade, too, though it’s only nine, and several of them — from Mookie Betts to Tyler Glasnow to Tommy Edman to Alex Vesia — play a significant role on the team. Los Angeles signed five major league free agents (including Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Blake Snell), plus two professional international free agents (Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Hyeseong Kim), two amateur international free agents (Roki Sasaki and Andy Pages) and two minor league free agents (Max Muncy and Justin Dean). They drafted five of their players — one more than the Brewers, whose development system is regarded as one of baseball’s best — and rounded out their roster with Jack Dreyer, an undrafted free agent.

Dreyer highlights what the Dodgers and Brewers do exceptionally well: extract talent from players through systems that value a combination of scouting, analytics and superior coaching. It doesn’t matter whether you spend half a billion dollars or the $115 million or so currently on the Brewers’ books. If you can become an organization that gets the best out of players, winning will follow.

Perhaps if they weren’t so terminally parked at opposite ends of the continuum, the league and union could agree that staking an argument around one playoff series is foolhardy. Both sides should understand that, in the grand scheme, a seven-game series says very little, particularly when it comes to the complicated economic system of 30 billion-dollar corporations competing in the same space.

But this battle is as much about narrative as it is reality, and if MLB is going to push for a salary cap, it needs as much evidence as possible, and the Dodgers becoming the first team in a quarter-century to win back-to-back World Series would provide another nugget on top of the reams the league already cites. The last team to do that was the New York Yankees — and the competitive-balance tax, the proto-cap that currently penalizes high-spending teams, came into existence specifically to check what other owners believed the Yankees’ runaway spending.

The Dodgers are the new Yankees, more moneyed and willing to spend than anyone. They’ve won the NL West 12 of the past 13 years and captured championships in 2020 and 2024. And despite their seeming inevitability, baseball is not suffering in most areas important to the league. Television ratings are up. Attendance has increased. The implementation of the pitch clock before the 2024 season modernized the game and is now almost universally beloved. The addition of an automated ball-strike challenge system next year will only add to the game’s appeal.

This NLCS is baseball at its best: a well-oiled machine of superstars, peaking at the right time, looking to become baseball’s first back-to-back champions since 2000, against a team that plays a delightful brand of baseball, is wildly likable and always seems to succeed, too. The Brewers haven’t won a championship yet — not just in this recent run of excellence but in their 57-year history — and derailing the Dodgers en route to doing so would make the tale of triumph that much greater.

And, yes, despite the higher win total, the Brewers enter this series as the underdog, and it’s a fair designation. Even if they swept the Dodgers in the six games they played in July. Even if their bullpen is filled with fireballing nastiness. Even if they have whacked as many home runs this postseason as Los Angeles, despite the Dodgers hitting 78 more during the regular season.

There will be a lot of great baseball played in Milwaukee and Los Angeles over the next week-plus, fans’ cups running over with the sorts of matchups that make October the most special month of the year. Ohtani, Betts and Freeman trying to catch up to Misiorowski’s fastball and read his slider. Chourio, Contreras and Turang trying to solve Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow and Ohtani. The Brewers’ terrifying bullpen, with five relievers throwing 97 mph-plus, against the team that hit high-octane fastballs better than anyone this year. The Dodgers trying to figure out if they can rely on any reliever other than Sasaki, and the Brewers, who were the fifth-toughest team to strike out this season, trying to get to Los Angeles’ bullpen with a barrage of balls in play.

While the baseball itself will be indisputable, this NLCS is bigger than the game. Its tentacles will reach into the future, with an unwitting but undeniable place in something far more consequential. It’s just one series, yes. But it’s so much more.

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