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Ohio State allowed a whopping 16 points at Illinois, seven more than it had in any other game this season, and the Buckeyes were ticked off about it.

“Definitely bothers me,” defensive lineman Kayden McDonald said. “If we want to be the best defense in the country, we can’t let people score.”

As the midpoint of the 2025 season arrives, even the most dominant unit on the most dominant team is looking for areas to improve. This has largely been a season of imperfections and invalidated predictions. Don’t stare directly at the preseason polls or you’ll damage your eyes.

Week 7 highlighted some problems, from Oklahoma’s offense to Tennessee’s third-down defense (and offense) to LSU’s general sloppiness to Ole Miss’ inability to finish drives. And that’s just in the SEC. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore looked shaky in a 10-point loss to Indiana, and Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza threw an ugly pick-six in the victory. Michigan‘s normally sound defense had no answers for Jayden Maiava, King Miller and USC, which has its own flaws but looked very sharp against the Wolverines.

We’re at the halfway point, and our latest power rankings examine the biggest obstacles facing the top teams. — Adam Rittenberg

Previous ranking: 1

There’s not much to nitpick about the Buckeyes, who are 6-0 and have outscored their opponents 221-41, never facing legitimate danger of a loss. But Ohio State’s run game remains a work in progress after losing TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins to the NFL from the national championship team. The Buckeyes averaged just 2.9 yards per carry in Saturday’s win at Illinois, with only one rush longer than 10 yards. CJ Donaldson reached the end zone twice, and Ohio State’s offensive line generated good movement early on, but the explosive runs didn’t come.

“We need to go and look to see: Is it a blocking issue? Is there a personnel issue?” coach Ryan Day said. “We’ve got to look at all those things. But I thought the offensive line was moving people today.”

The run game hasn’t been awful but remains a work in progress. — Rittenberg


Previous ranking: 2

The Hurricanes will be a favorite in the rest of their games, as no ranked teams remain on their regular-season schedule. They also just had their final open date of the season this past weekend, so Miami will play seven straight games to close out the slate before championship game weekend. The biggest obstacle is making sure the Hurricanes stay as focused on the teams ahead as they were when playing Top 25 teams earlier in the season. Under Mario Cristobal, Miami has lost eight games as a favorite, including two this past season that cost it a spot in the ACC championship game. Miami is the prohibitive favorite now to get to Charlotte and win the ACC. — Andrea Adelson


Previous ranking: 7

After what was a pretty complete performance at Oregon on both sides of the ball to notch a 30-20 win, Indiana doesn’t just look like a team that is College Football Playoff-bound for the second straight season; it looks even better and more confident than last year’s squad. With more experience, better talent and Curt Cignetti at the helm, the Hoosiers’ biggest obstacle might be themselves. As Cignetti pointed out postgame, penalties (specifically false starts) were a major issue. Outside of that, however, it’s Ohio State that is their biggest competition in the Big Ten. They avoid each other in the regular season which could set up a potential matchup in the championship game in Indianapolis.

Regardless, if Indiana makes it to that game, it’s a near certainty that it’ll be back in the playoff, where the ghosts of what Notre Dame did to the Hoosiers in the first round this past season await. — Paolo Uggetti


Previous ranking: 5

The Aggies are for real, moving to 6-0 for the first time since 2016 and only the second time in the past 30 years with a win over Florida. But now the real fun starts. They’ll roll into Fayetteville to face Arkansas for just the second time since 1990, in Bobby Petrino’s first home game as the interim coach on a night in which the Hogs are honoring Darren McFadden. They follow that up with trips to LSU and Missouri, and won’t return home until Nov. 15. The A&M defense is bringing back old Wrecking Crew feelings, holding three straight SEC opponents to 100 yards or less and dominating on third down, becoming the first major conference program in the past 20 years to hold three straight teams to one or fewer conversions on third down. The old saying is that defense travels. We’re about to find out. — Dave Wilson


Previous ranking: 4

The Rebels are getting ready to face the most difficult part of their schedule, starting with Saturday’s SEC road game at Georgia. They’ll play at Oklahoma the week after that, followed by a home game against South Carolina on Nov. 1. If Ole Miss is to survive that stretch, it’s going to need to eliminate the self-inflicted mistakes it keeps making. The Rebels are the third-most penalized team in the SEC with 73.8 yards per game. They also rank 14th in the league in turnover margin at minus-4, losing three fumbles and throwing five interceptions. In Saturday’s 24-21 win against Washington State, the Rebels were penalized eight times for 99 yards. — Mark Schlabach


Previous ranking: 8

The Red Raiders continue to show they’re dynamic, malleable and can win however they need. This week, they lost starting quarterback Behren Morton to injury and backup Will Hammond struggled through the air, going 7-of-16 for 42 yards with an interception, yet they won 42-17 over Kansas. Hammond added 61 yards and two scores, but the superstar was running back Cameron Dickey, who piled up 263 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 12.5 yards per carry. Tech has won six straight games by 20 or more points, and it has all been seemingly different. But the one constant is that the Red Raiders have fielded perhaps the best defense in school history. The only concern for Tech right now is the health of Morton, who has left three games this season with an injury, though the Red Raiders have a lot of belief in Hammond, who put on a show in relief against Utah. The schedule looks extremely favorable, with the remaining teams having a 19-18 record, and that includes 6-0 BYU. — Wilson


Previous ranking: 9

The Crimson Tide have reeled off five straight wins since losing the opener to Florida State, but they have done it without a strong run game. Alabama has struggled to consistently move the ball on the ground, and losing Jam Miller to a concussion in the fourth quarter of a 27-24 win over Missouri on Saturday is certainly not the news this team needs headed into the Tennessee game this week. Alabama ranks No. 103 in the nation in rush offense and is averaging just 3.89 yards per rush. Against Missouri, Alabama had 43 carries for just 126 yards. Ty Simpson has been carrying this offense, but at some point, Alabama is going to have to run the ball more consistently than it has this season. — Adelson


Previous ranking: 10

If the Bulldogs are going to stay in the SEC title mix, they’re going to have to figure out a way to get opponents off the field on third down. The Bulldogs rank 13th in the league in that area, allowing their opponents to convert 40.2% of the time. By comparison, when Georgia won its second straight CFP national title during the 2022 season, it led the SEC and ranked No. 2 in the FBS at 26.6%. It’s the biggest reason why the Bulldogs lost to Alabama 24-21 at home and had to come from behind to survive in their road victories at Tennessee and Auburn. The Crimson Tide converted nine of their 11 third-down plays while building a 24-14 lead in the first half. Auburn had a 75-yard touchdown drive to start the game and controlled the ball for nearly 22 minutes in the first half, converting 8 of 11 third downs along the way. The Bulldogs have made great adjustments at halftime of games, but they need to do better coming out of the gates. — Schlabach


Previous ranking: 3

Since 2022, this Ducks team has run on a very particular kind of energy: success at home in front of a frenzied crowd that had helped them win 18 straight games in a row at Autzen Stadium. But after Indiana came into town and outmatched Oregon to the tune of a 30-20 result, Dan Lanning’s team will need to reset and find its groove again. The loss does not deter the Ducks’ season-long goals, but it does force them to reevaluate some of their weaknesses, including an inability to match the energy of a team that is as good or better than they are (see: not just Indiana but Ohio State in the playoff last year, too). Throughout this dominant stretch, Lanning has been exceptional at continuing to motivate his team to keep its success going. What will his approach be after Oregon just got punched in the mouth? — Uggetti


Previous ranking: 12

If the concerns surrounding Georgia Tech’s close wins to start the season suggested the Yellow Jackets could be susceptible to an upset, it sure didn’t seem to be true in Week 7. Georgia Tech jumped out to an early 15-0 lead and never looked back in a 35-20 win over Virginia Tech. Better news, the ground game, which had been dependent on Haynes King‘s rushing ability, racked up 268 yards, while King proved he can win with his arm too, completing 20 of 24 passes for 213 yards and a score. That type of offensive balance will be the key to the Jackets staying undefeated moving forward. — David Hale


Previous ranking: 11

Tennessee allowed 16.1 points per game and 4.6 yards per play during last year’s College Football Playoff run. This year, the Volunteers are allowing 29.3 points per game and 5.1 yards per play. On Saturday in Knoxville, they needed a 146-yard rushing day from DeSean Bishop and a 109-yard receiving day from Braylon Staley to survive a track meet with Arkansas, 34-31. The win moved the Volunteers to 5-1, and as long as quarterback Joey Aguilar and company can keep the points and yards flowing, they could be fine. But they’ve allowed 24, 26, 31 and 34 points in four of their wins (and 44 in their loss). Trying to win track meet after track meet is a tough way to remain in the playoff hunt. — Bill Connelly


Previous ranking: 13

It’s safe to say that LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t gotten as much help as he needs this season. The run game has stunk, and he has had to throw short and quick to assure pressure doesn’t become an issue. That remains an issue, but there were signs of hope in Saturday’s 20-10 win over South Carolina. Thanks in part to a 56-yard burst from Ju’Juan Johnson, LSU rushed for 166 yards, and Nussmeier was able to complete 20 of 33 passes for 254 yards with no sacks. He did throw two interceptions, and LSU turned the ball over twice in the red zone, which allowed the Gamecocks to hang around. But the defense was excellent once again, and the problematic offense appeared to make progress. — Connelly


Previous ranking: 6

The Sooners’ smooth start to the 2025 season struck a pothole in a 23-6 loss to Red River rivals Texas at the Cotton Bowl in Week 7. Away from the struggles of quarterback John Mateer in his return from a hand injury and an uncharacteristically leaky defense, Oklahoma’s 106th-ranked run game was the thorn in the Sooners’ side for yet another week, and it remains the biggest threat to the program’s playoff aspirations in 2025. Oklahoma gained just 48 yards from 30 attempts (1.6 yards per carry) on Saturday, cycling between running backs Tory Blaylock, Xavier Robinson and Jaydn Ott to no avail. Without a meaningful run game, the Sooners’ offense has become a worryingly one-dimensional problem not even Mateer’s typically outstanding playmaking can overcome. It’s an issue that will surely trip Oklahoma up across the back half of the regular season, just as it did against Texas. — Eli Lederman


Previous ranking: 16

The Cougars trailed by 10 at Arizona with less than five minutes to play before finding a way to send the game to overtime, where they won, 33-27. The win kept their undefeated season alive ahead of this week’s Holy War game against Utah. Now comes the hard part. BYU’s schedule is much more difficult in the second half of the season. It got quarterback Bear Bachmeier the experience he needed but it’s concerning how much the Cougars relied on his legs against Arizona (22 carries, 89 yards). They need to be able to throw it more effectively for the winning streak to continue. — Kyle Bonagura


Previous ranking: 14

Mizzou fought hard, tackled well and made life as difficult as possible for Alabama in Columbia on Saturday, but Eli Drinkwitz’s Tigers still fell 27-24 because, well, they couldn’t pass. Beau Pribula went just 16-for-28 passing for 167 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions; even with Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts combining to average 6.0 yards per carry. After an early touchdown, the Tigers scored just 10 points over a 55-minute period before nearly pulling off a late comeback. With plenty of other excellent defenses coming up on the schedule — including Auburn’s next week — the Tigers can’t afford to become one-dimensional if they want to remain in the playoff race. — Connelly


Previous ranking: 17

Notre Dame dominated NC State, 36-7, behind another stellar performance from QB CJ Carr. More impressively is that a defense, lambasted after an 0-2 start for struggles, particularly in the secondary, dominated, picking off CJ Bailey three times in the win. The ugly start to the season seems like it’s fully in the rearview mirror, but those two early losses mean Notre Dame will continue to walk a tightrope in hopes of a playoff berth, and Week 8 could be the moment the Irish tumble to the ground. USC awaits after a big win over Michigan, with a date in South Bend likely to be the defining moment of Notre Dame’s season. — Hale


Previous ranking: NR

After an impressive 31-13 win over No. 15 Michigan Saturday, the Trojans’ biggest obstacle may be something that they can’t go back and change: their loss to Illinois two weeks ago in a game that was seemingly in their hands before they let it slip away. The reason that loss may linger for Lincoln Riley’s team is the fact that the rest of its schedule is daunting to say the least. USC heads to Notre Dame next before heading to face Nebraska in another tough road environment, then has to deal with pesky teams like Northwestern and Iowa at home. The finishing stretch features a dangerous road trip to play Oregon before getting a suddenly-feisty UCLA team at home. Every game in that stretch is its own tricky obstacle and the Trojans have yet to prove they can play consistent elite football, especially on the road. With their talent, the Trojans are plenty capable. The question is whether they will be able to turn that into results. — Uggetti


Previous ranking: 25

For the first time this fall, Texas finally looked the part of the preseason No. 1 and the national title contender the Longhorns were expected to be in August. With physical line play, a productive run game and error-free football from quarterback Arch Manning, Texas controlled the final 35 minutes at the Cotton Bowl and smoothly dispatched Oklahoma in a 23-6 win that breathed life back into its playoff hopes this fall. The challenge now for the Longhorns will be maintaining that level over the back half of the season with a consistency they simply haven’t shown in 2025. If Steve Sarkisian & Co. can replicate Saturday’s performance outside of a rivalry game when their backs are against the wall, Texas has a shot to claw back into the CFP hunt with only three ranked matchups remaining on the schedule. — Lederman


Previous ranking: 19

The Hoos were off in Week 7, which gave Tony Elliott & Co. a chance to take stock of all that has transpired. After a deflating Week 2 loss to NC State in what was considered a nonconference game, Virginia has roared back to life behind a stellar running game and the heroics of QB Chandler Morris. It has won four straight, including back-to-back overtime wins against Florida State and Louisville Cardinals. The remaining schedule is accommodating — Washington State, UNC and Cal are up next — but the Cavaliers would feel better if the next few W’s don’t require as much stress as the past two. — Hale


Previous ranking: 20

The Commodores got a well-timed bye week following their 30-14 loss at Alabama, giving them a chance to get healthy and dig into how they can fine-tune from their first loss of the year. The defining four-game stretch of their schedule comes next against LSU, Missouri, Texas and Auburn, and they’re getting three of those four at home. Clark Lea’s squad has proven it can compete with anyone in its conference. Now it takes great precision and poise to pull off these upsets. Quarterback Diego Pavia was excellent through his first five starts but has eight turnover-worthy plays this season, according to Pro Football Focus, after producing just five through 13 games in 2024. — Max Olson


Previous ranking: NR

The Bulls cleared one of their few remaining hurdles and secured another résumé-building victory in a 27-point win on the road against previously unbeaten North Texas Friday night. South Florida has now committed 13 turnovers this fall, including three across a messy first quarter against the Mean Green, more than all but four other FBS offenses entering play Saturday. But those turnover troubles haven’t kept the Bulls from reaching the back half of the regular season as one of the Group of 5’s leading CFP contenders. The biggest obstacle standing in the way of USF’s playoff hopes? A Week 9 trip to Memphis on Oct. 25. If the Bulls can land a ranked road win over the Tigers later this month, they’ll reach November with pole position in the American title race, and in turn, a clear path to the first-ever CFP appearance in school history. — Lederman


Previous ranking: 21

The 6-0 Tigers had the week off following their 45-7 rout of Tulsa, which gave them a chance to start working ahead on UAB, as well as their much-anticipated Oct. 25 showdown with South Florida, a game with potentially massive College Football Playoff implications. Coach Ryan Silverfield said he’ll harp on ball security and how important it is that his team take care of the football over the second half of the season. Quarterback Brendon Lewis has been responsible for six of the Tigers’ seven turnovers on the year, and they’ve been fortunate to only lose two of their six fumbles so far. Memphis’ defense has been able to get stops in four of these sudden change situations, but this squad will be in trouble if it’s not careful against a USF team that converted five takeaways into 21 points to rout North Texas. — Olson


Previous ranking: NR

The Utes dazzled in a 32-point win over then-No. 21 Arizona State, their third-largest win over a ranked opponent in school history, led by Devon Dampier‘s three rushing TDs and 120 yards on the ground to go with 104 passing yards. The Utes ended a five-game home losing streak to conference opponents, a shocking stat, but coach Kyle Whittingham said that’s over now. The next test is the big one: a nationally televised Holy War game against BYU in Provo, following last year’s one-point loss in the rivalry. It’s once again predicted to be close: ESPN’s FPI gives the Cougars a 51% chance to win. — Wilson


Previous ranking: 24

Coach Scott Satterfield and the Bearcats said they would be better before the season, and they have backed it up, even after an agonizing loss to Nebraska in the opener. The Bearcats won their fifth consecutive game Saturday, their longest win streak since 2022, and are 3-0 in Big 12 play for the first time. They have one of the nation’s best offensive lines, quarterback Brendan Sorsby has been fantastic, and their defense has been opportunistic in forcing turnovers, adding their seventh forced fumble against UCF. While the defense took a step in the right direction against UCF, allowing only 11 points, Cincinnati still surrendered 1,480 yards in the three Big 12 games. The Bearcats entered Saturday ranked 121st nationally in pass efficiency defense, an area that must improve with upcoming games against Baylor, Utah and BYU. — Rittenberg


Previous ranking: NR

At the halfway point of the season, Nebraska has done enough to get the collective hopes of its fanbase in a rare optimistic position. ESPN’s Football Power Index projects the Cornhuskers’ most likely finish to be 9-3, which would be the program’s best finish since 2016. But the second half of the schedule is full of land mines: There are no easy outs the rest of the way. QB Dylan Raiola has had some incredible moments but his three interceptions against Maryland on Saturday are a bit concerning. — Bonagura

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CFP Bubble Watch: Who’s in, who’s out, who has work to do at midseason

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CFP Bubble Watch: Who's in, who's out, who has work to do at midseason

Week 7 shook up the College Football Playoff picture. No team earned a more impactful result than Indiana, whose win at Oregon is now the best in the country during the first half of the season. Indiana’s playoff chances jumped 21%, climbing to a 93% chance to make the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

Not only are the Hoosiers off the bubble, but Indiana also is chasing a first-round bye as one of the top four seeds, having cemented its place alongside Ohio State and Miami as one of the nation’s best teams.

Indiana wasn’t the only winner, though, as South Florida and Texas Tech both saw their playoff chances jump by at least 15%.

Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.

The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.

Reminder: This will change from week to week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Spotlight: Tennessee. The Vols have looked like a borderline playoff team against unranked opponents in recent weeks, beating Mississippi State and Arkansas by a combined 10 points with one overtime. Offensively they’ve been elite, averaging 300 yards passing and 200 rushing per game. Defensively, they need to stop the run to make to challenge in the SEC. They’ll have a chance against Alabama on Saturday to further legitimize their hopes. With a win, Tennessee’s chances of reaching the playoff would jump to 52%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Tennessee ranks No. 10 in ESPN’s game control metric and No. 19 in strength of record. The Vols are projected in the committee’s No. 12 spot this week, which means they would get knocked out of the actual field during the seeding process to make room for the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff, so if the fifth team is ranked outside of the committee’s top 12, its No. 12 team gets the boot.

Enigma: Texas. The Longhorns took a baby step toward a return to CFP relevance with a big win against Oklahoma, but it was their first win against a Power 4 opponent and their first against a ranked team. Texas has the 15th-most-difficult remaining schedule, and with two losses is already in a precarious position. The Longhorns will play three of their next four opponents on the road (at Kentucky, Mississippi State and Georgia). There were encouraging signs from the win against the rival Sooners, from the stingy defense that flustered quarterback John Mateer all game to what looked like an improved offensive line that gave quarterback Arch Manning some time to throw. He completed 16 of 17 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown when under no duress. If Texas can continue to put it all together against the heart of its SEC schedule, it could make a run to be one of the committee’s top two-loss teams.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

On the cusp: Tennessee

Work to do: Missouri, Texas, Vanderbilt

Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina


Big Ten

Spotlight: USC. The Trojans have looked like a CFP top 25 team through the first half of the season, with their only loss a close one on the road to a ranked Illinois team. In Week 7, USC’s convincing 31-13 win against Michigan pushed it into more serious Big Ten contention. Ohio State and Indiana are the leaders, followed by Oregon, but USC has the fourth-best chance (7.1%) to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics. That will change when the Trojans go to Oregon on Nov. 22, but they don’t play Ohio State or Indiana during the regular season. A win at Notre Dame on Saturday would be a significant boost to USC’s playoff résumé, while simultaneously knocking the Irish out of playoff contention. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, USC’s chances of reaching the playoff would adjust to 58% with a win against Notre Dame. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has less than a 50% chance to win its games against Notre Dame and Oregon.

Enigma: Washington. The Huskies have improved significantly and quickly under coach Jedd Fisch, who’s in his second season. Their only loss was to Ohio State, 24-6, on Sept. 27, but they lack a statement win that gives them real postseason credibility. Wins at Washington State and Maryland are certainly respectable, but bigger opportunities loom starting on Saturday at Michigan. This game has significant implications, because if the Huskies can win, they stand a strong chance of hosting Oregon as a one-loss team in the regular-season finale. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan has a 67.6% chance to win on Saturday, and Oregon has a 70% chance to beat Washington on Nov. 29. The Huskies are projected to win every other game, though. A win against Michigan could increase their playoff hopes significantly.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon

On the cusp: USC

Work to do: Nebraska, Washington

Would be out: Iowa, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin


ACC

Spotlight: Georgia Tech. Raise your hand if you had Georgia Tech at Duke on Saturday circled as a game that would impact the College Football Playoff. The Yellow Jackets would have been the next team to crack the latest CFP projection this week, and their chances of reaching the ACC championship game will skyrocket if they can win at Duke. Georgia Tech currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, Duke and Virginia. ESPN Analytics gives the Blue Devils a 61.8% chance to win. The only other projected loss on the Jackets’ schedule is the regular-season finale against Georgia. Even if Georgia Tech reaches the ACC title game and loses, it could get in as a second ACC team with a win over Georgia.

Enigma: Virginia. The Hoos have won back-to-back overtime games against Florida State and Louisville, putting themselves in contention for a spot in the ACC championship. They host a tricky Washington State team on Saturday that just gave Ole Miss a few headaches, though, and need to avoid a second loss to an unranked team. The toughest game left on their schedule is Nov. 15 at Duke. Without an ACC title, Virginia is going to have a tough time impressing the committee with a schedule that includes a loss to unranked NC State and possibly no wins against ranked opponents. It didn’t help the Hoos that Florida State lost to an unranked Pitt, as the win against the Noles was the highlight of their season so far.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Miami

On the cusp: Georgia Tech

Work to do: Virginia

Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest


Big 12

Spotlight: BYU. The Cougars needed a late-night double-overtime win at Arizona to stay undefeated and are on the path to face Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game. The question is if they can stay undefeated until the Nov. 8 regular-season matchup against the Red Raiders. BYU has its second-most difficult remaining game on Saturday against rival Utah, which is also in contention for the Big 12 title. BYU has a slim edge with a 51% chance to win, which would be a critical cushion considering back-to-back road trips to Iowa State and Texas Tech await. The Big 12 has also gotten a boost from Cincinnati, which has a favorable remaining schedule and could be a surprise CFP top 25 team. If BYU stumbles over the next three weeks, a road win at a ranked Cincinnati team would help its résumé. Speaking of the Bearcats …

Enigma: Cincinnati. Is this team for real? The Bearcats have won five straight since their 20-17 season-opening loss to Nebraska, including three straight against Big 12 opponents Kansas, Iowa State and UCF. All three of those teams are .500 or better, and the selection committee will respect that as long as it holds. Cincinnati also has November opportunities against Utah and BYU, which could change the playoff picture in the Big 12. ESPN Analytics gives the Bearcats less than a 50% chance to beat Utah, BYU and TCU.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Texas Tech

On the cusp: BYU

Work to do: Cincinnati, Houston, Utah

Would be out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia


Independent

Would be out: Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have the best chance to win out of any team in the FBS, with a 49% chance to finish 10-2. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Notre Dame would have a 50% chance to reach the CFP if it runs the table. That seems accurate, given the selection committee would compare Notre Dame against the other 10-2 contenders, and it’s a coin toss as to whether the room would agree that the Irish’s résumé and film make them worthy of an at-large bid. How Miami and Texas A&M fare will impact this — as will the head-to-head results if those teams don’t win their respective leagues and are also competing with the Irish for one of those at-large spots. It helps Notre Dame that opponents USC and Navy could finish as CFP top 25 teams if they continue to win. Undefeated Navy could also make a run at the Group of 5 playoff spot.


Group of 5

Spotlight: South Florida. South Florida. The Bulls are back on top after their convincing 63-36 win at previously undefeated North Texas, which just a week ago was listed here as a potential Group of 5 contender. Following the win, the Bulls’ chances of reaching the CFP increased by 20%, according to ESPN Analytics. South Florida’s lone loss was Sept. 13 at Miami, 49-12, which was a significant defeat against what could be the committee’s No. 1 team. Although that result showed the gap between the Bulls and one of the nation’s top teams, it certainly didn’t eliminate South Florida, which has one of the best overall résumés of the other contenders. With wins against Boise State, Florida and now at North Texas, this is a team that earned the edge in this week’s latest projection. Still, South Florida has the second-best chance of any Group of 5 school to reach the playoff (30%) behind Memphis (42%), according to ESPN Analytics.

Enigma: UNLV. Undefeated UNLV survived a scare from 1-5 Air Force on Saturday to stay undefeated and in contention for a playoff spot. UNLV and Boise State, both of the Mountain West Conference, are the only teams outside of the American Conference with at least a 5% chance to reach the playoff, and they play each other in a critical game on Saturday. UNLV has scored at least 30 points in each of its six games this season and is 6-0 for the first time since 1974, but it hasn’t always been pretty. UNLV scored the winning touchdown against Air Force with 36 seconds left and allowed the Falcons 603 total yards. The Rebels have the fourth-best chance to reach the playoff at 9% behind the American’s Memphis, South Florida and Tulane.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: South Florida

Work to do: Memphis, Navy, Tulane, UNLV

Bracket

Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Indiana
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Indiana
No. 10 Oklahoma/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

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2025 NLCS: Live updates and analysis from Game 2

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2025 NLCS: Live updates and analysis from Game 2

The opener of the National League Championship Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Milwaukee Brewers had a little bit of everything.

So what can we expect in Game 2? We’ve got you covered with the top moments from today’s game, as well as takeaways after the final out.

Key links: How this NLCS could decide if baseball is played in 2027 | Bracket

Top moments

Follow pitch-by-pitch on Gamecast

Ohtani gets in on the fun with RBI single

Muncy’s drive adds to L.A.’s lead

Dodgers take their first lead of Game 2

Teoscar answers with a blast of his own

Chourio gets Brewers on board first

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Passan: Why a Dodgers-Brewers NLCS could define MLB’s labor battle

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Passan: Why a Dodgers-Brewers NLCS could define MLB's labor battle

The winner of the National League Championship Series could determine whether Major League Baseball is played in 2027.

This might sound far-fetched. It is not. What looks like a best-of-seven baseball series, which starts Monday as the Milwaukee Brewers host the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1, will play out as a proxy of the coming labor war between MLB and the MLB Players Association.

Owners across the game want a salary cap — and if the Dodgers, with their record $500 million-plus payroll, win back-to-back World Series, it will only embolden the league’s push to regulate salaries. The Brewers, consistently a bottom-third payroll team, emerging triumphant would serve as the latest evidence that winners can germinate even in the game’s smallest markets and that the failures of other low-revenue teams have less to do with spending than execution.

The truth, of course, exists somewhere in between. But in between is not where the two parties stake out their negotiating positions in what many expect to be a brutal fight to determine the future of the game’s economics. And that is why whoever comes out victorious likely will be used as a cudgel when formal negotiations begin next spring for the next version of the collective bargaining agreement that expires Dec. 1, 2026.

If it’s the Dodgers, MLB owners — who already were vocal publicly and even more so privately about Los Angeles spending as much as the bottom six teams in payroll combined this year — will likely cry foul even louder. Already, MLB is expected to lock out players upon the agreement’s expiration. Back-to-back championships by the Dodgers could embolden MLB and add to a chorus of fans who see a cap as a panacea for the plague of big-money teams monopolizing championships over the past decade.

Such a scenario would not scare the union off its half-century-old anti-cap stance. The MLBPA has no intention of negotiating if a cap remains on the table, and considering MLB was on the cusp of losing games in 2022 because of a negotiation that didn’t include a cap, players already have spoken among themselves about how to weather missing time in 2027. Certainly, the Brewers winning wouldn’t ensure avoiding that, but if in any argument about the necessity of a cap, the union can counter that the juggernaut Dodgers lost to a team of self-proclaimed Average Joes with a payroll a quarter of the size, it reinforces the point that team-building acumen can exist regardless of financial might.

The Brewers have joined the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians as vanguards of low-revenue success in this decade. Over the past eight years, Milwaukee has won five NL Central titles and made the playoffs seven times. At 97-65 this year, the Brewers owned the best record in baseball. And they did so with a unique blend of players.

Of the 26 players on Milwaukee’s NLCS roster, 15 came via trade, according to ESPN Research, including a majority of its best players (slugger Christian Yelich, catcher William Contreras, ace Freddy Peralta and Trevor Megill, the closer for most of the season). The Brewers drafted four (Brice Turang, Jacob Misiorowski, Sal Frelick and Aaron Ashby, all major contributors), signed three as minor league free agents, brought in two via international amateur free agency (their best player, Jackson Chourio, and closer Abner Uribe) and snagged one in the minor league portion of the offseason Rule 5 draft.

That leaves one major league free agent. One. And it was left-hander Jose Quintana, who signed a one-year, $4 million deal in March.

Think about that: The MLBPA, which has fought for free agency since its inception, would be heralding a team that does not spend on free agents. Strange bedfellows, yes, but it strengthens the union’s position: If the current system is beyond repair because of money, how did a team that doesn’t spend win a championship?

The Dodgers, on the other hand, are not nearly as free-agent-heavy as might be assumed. They’ve acquired the most players via trade, too, though it’s only nine, and several of them — from Mookie Betts to Tyler Glasnow to Tommy Edman to Alex Vesia — play a significant role on the team. Los Angeles signed five major league free agents (including Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Blake Snell), plus two professional international free agents (Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Hyeseong Kim), two amateur international free agents (Roki Sasaki and Andy Pages) and two minor league free agents (Max Muncy and Justin Dean). They drafted five of their players — one more than the Brewers, whose development system is regarded as one of baseball’s best — and rounded out their roster with Jack Dreyer, an undrafted free agent.

Dreyer highlights what the Dodgers and Brewers do exceptionally well: extract talent from players through systems that value a combination of scouting, analytics and superior coaching. It doesn’t matter whether you spend half a billion dollars or the $115 million or so currently on the Brewers’ books. If you can become an organization that gets the best out of players, winning will follow.

Perhaps if they weren’t so terminally parked at opposite ends of the continuum, the league and union could agree that staking an argument around one playoff series is foolhardy. Both sides should understand that, in the grand scheme, a seven-game series says very little, particularly when it comes to the complicated economic system of 30 billion-dollar corporations competing in the same space.

But this battle is as much about narrative as it is reality, and if MLB is going to push for a salary cap, it needs as much evidence as possible, and the Dodgers becoming the first team in a quarter-century to win back-to-back World Series would provide another nugget on top of the reams the league already cites. The last team to do that was the New York Yankees — and the competitive-balance tax, the proto-cap that currently penalizes high-spending teams, came into existence specifically to check what other owners believed the Yankees’ runaway spending.

The Dodgers are the new Yankees, more moneyed and willing to spend than anyone. They’ve won the NL West 12 of the past 13 years and captured championships in 2020 and 2024. And despite their seeming inevitability, baseball is not suffering in most areas important to the league. Television ratings are up. Attendance has increased. The implementation of the pitch clock before the 2024 season modernized the game and is now almost universally beloved. The addition of an automated ball-strike challenge system next year will only add to the game’s appeal.

This NLCS is baseball at its best: a well-oiled machine of superstars, peaking at the right time, looking to become baseball’s first back-to-back champions since 2000, against a team that plays a delightful brand of baseball, is wildly likable and always seems to succeed, too. The Brewers haven’t won a championship yet — not just in this recent run of excellence but in their 57-year history — and derailing the Dodgers en route to doing so would make the tale of triumph that much greater.

And, yes, despite the higher win total, the Brewers enter this series as the underdog, and it’s a fair designation. Even if they swept the Dodgers in the six games they played in July. Even if their bullpen is filled with fireballing nastiness. Even if they have whacked as many home runs this postseason as Los Angeles, despite the Dodgers hitting 78 more during the regular season.

There will be a lot of great baseball played in Milwaukee and Los Angeles over the next week-plus, fans’ cups running over with the sorts of matchups that make October the most special month of the year. Ohtani, Betts and Freeman trying to catch up to Misiorowski’s fastball and read his slider. Chourio, Contreras and Turang trying to solve Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow and Ohtani. The Brewers’ terrifying bullpen, with five relievers throwing 97 mph-plus, against the team that hit high-octane fastballs better than anyone this year. The Dodgers trying to figure out if they can rely on any reliever other than Sasaki, and the Brewers, who were the fifth-toughest team to strike out this season, trying to get to Los Angeles’ bullpen with a barrage of balls in play.

While the baseball itself will be indisputable, this NLCS is bigger than the game. Its tentacles will reach into the future, with an unwitting but undeniable place in something far more consequential. It’s just one series, yes. But it’s so much more.

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