The signs are everywhere. It’s finally hoodie weather in the Midwest. We’re getting ready to argue all over again about daylight saving time and whether candy corn is good. (It is! I don’t like that it is, but it is.) That’s right: It’s almost November. And November is college football’s greatest month.

We enter this November with far more uncertainty in the air than usual. Sure, it almost certainly looks like Ohio State and Indiana will vacuum up two of the 12 College Football Playoff slots, with Oregon likely nabbing a third. The top-heavy Big Ten should continue to fend off any of the “Has parity taken over college football?” talk en vogue at the moment. But everywhere else, it’s nothing but uncertainty as far as the eye can see.

We know the SEC should land quite a few CFP bids, but we have no idea who will grab them. (Okay, we have some idea, but not a lot!) We thought the ACC (Miami) and Big 12 (Texas Tech) both had teams capable of charging to 12-0 and easy CFP bids, but Miami and Texas Tech lost last week. So did Memphis, which plunged the American Conference race into chaos. And have you looked at the Heisman betting lately? It feels like we still have some major plot twists to come with that.

Per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, there are 30 teams with at least a 10% chance at a playoff bid. Most of what’s ahead appears unsettled, so let’s try to make some sense of it. Here are the 10 FBS races I’m most looking forward to as hoodie weather — the best weather — further takes over our world.

1. SEC title race

Per SP+, we head into Week 9 with eight teams clinging to at least a 5% chance of winning the league title: Alabama (25.8%), Texas A&M (17.6%), Georgia (13.9%), Oklahoma (10.4%), Texas (7.7%), Missouri (7.4%), Ole Miss (7.1%) and Vanderbilt (5.5%). They all have either zero (Bama and A&M) or one conference loss, and there are eight remaining games between them over the next six weeks, including two potential elimination games in Week 9 (Ole Miss at Oklahoma and Missouri at Vanderbilt).

I can tell you how many different teams have a chance, but it’s hard not to think of Alabama as the front-runner. The Crimson Tide moved to 4-0 in SEC play last week with a 37-20 win over Tennessee, and they’ve now played four of the five best opponents on their conference schedule. They’re only up to ninth in SP+, however, thanks primarily to statistically subpar performances in wins over Georgia and Missouri (and, of course, the season-opening dud against Florida State, an increasingly inexplicable result). That means their remaining games against LSU, Oklahoma and Auburn are projected as one-score affairs. Their spot in Atlanta isn’t a gimme just yet. Still, wins are wins, and they’re in great shape.

Even if we give one title game spot to Bama, the race for the other spot is pretty fascinating. Will Georgia continue to spot opponents multiscore leads before scraping their way back? How much will the Bulldogs’ loss to Bama hurt them in potential tiebreaker scenarios? Can unbeaten Texas A&M continue charging ahead as the schedule ramps up with trips to LSU, Missouri and Texas? (You could tell me right now that the Aggies went 0-3 or 3-0 in those trips and I would believe you, no questions asked.) Can Ole Miss clear this week’s hurdle in Norman and take advantage of a reasonably light home stretch? Is Oklahoma really a contender with five remaining top-20 opponents (per SP+)? I’m slightly worried about overbilling this race when the most likely result seems to be yet another Bama-Georgia title game. But there’s still lots of potential weirdness on the table. That also means the jockeying for the other SEC playoff spots will be interesting.

Key upcoming games: Ole Miss at Oklahoma (Week 9), Missouri at Vanderbilt (Week 9), Vanderbilt at Texas (Week 10), Texas A&M at Missouri (Week 11), Texas at Georgia (Week 12), Oklahoma at Alabama (Week 12), Missouri at Oklahoma (Week 13), Texas A&M at Texas (Week 14)

2. American Conference title race

Out-of-nowhere upsets have sent conference title races in unexpected directions since conferences first came into existence, and few were as unexpected as Memphis‘ 24-21 defeat at UAB last week. The Blazers had just fired coach Trent Dilfer, and Memphis was a more than three-touchdown favorite. The Tigers entered the game with a 43% chance of making the CFP, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Those odds are now 11%.

Memphis’ loss is our gain. SP+ now gives five teams between a 12% and 24% chance of winning the American Conference: USF (24.4%), North Texas (22.6%), Memphis (19.4%), Navy (17.3%) and Tulane (12.7%). USF, Navy and Tulane are unbeaten in conference play, and Navy is unbeaten overall thanks to a couple of narrow wins in its past two games. But Navy and Tulane have had to pull off escapes in recent weeks and have fallen out of the SP+ top 50. USF has made a nice ascent since a humiliating 49-12 loss to Miami, but the Bulls must play at Memphis and Navy in the coming weeks. If they beat Memphis on Saturday, their spot in the American Conference title game begins to appear secure. But a Memphis win would improve Memphis’ own odds and those of North Texas.

Key upcoming games: USF at Memphis (Week 9), Navy at North Texas (Week 10), Tulane at Memphis (Week 11), USF at Navy (Week 12), Navy at Memphis (Week 14)

3. The current hierarchy of one-loss teams

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Unstoppable force vs. immovable object: Rebels offense vs. OU defense

SEC Network’s Alyssa Lang presents pressing statistics and potential CFP chances ahead of No. 8 Ole Miss’ battle against the No. 13 Sooners.

From a College Football Playoff perspective, this is the most important race. But it’s also the blurriest. If we assume that the Group of 5 ends up with just one of the 12 spots in the CFP — not a guarantee (since we could still theoretically end up with a particularly low-ranked Big 12 or ACC champion), but likely — then that leaves 11 spots for the four power conferences. Among power-conference teams, SP+ projections suggest an average of 5.1 will end up 11-1 or 12-0 heading into championship weekend, likely from this pile:

Odds of finishing 11-1 or better (power-conference teams only): Ohio State 90.1%, Indiana 87.8%, Georgia Tech 49.6%, Texas Tech 46.2%, Oregon 33.1%, Miami 27.5%, BYU 27.3%, Louisville 22.3%, Georgia 16.5%, Ole Miss 16.1%, Alabama 14.9%, Virginia 12.4%.

If we assume for a moment that five or so of those teams will make the field of 12 as they did last year — again, not guaranteed but reasonably likely — that leaves about six spots for multiloss teams, likely from the Big Ten and SEC.

It’s impossible to know where each potential multiloss team might stand six weeks from now, when we don’t know who they might have beaten or lost to — or how the CFP committee will, after pressure, handle differences in strength of schedule — but let’s lay out where their résumés currently stand by combining Strength of Record and Résumé SP+ into one résumé ranking.

Current computer-based résumé rankings:

1. Indiana (7-0)

2. Ohio State (7-0)

3. Texas A&M (7-0)

4. Oregon (6-1)

5. Alabama (6-1)

6. BYU (7-0)

7. Georgia (6-1)

8. Georgia Tech (7-0)

9. Oklahoma (6-1)*

10. Miami (5-1)

11. Texas Tech (6-1)*

12. Vanderbilt (6-1)

13. Ole Miss (6-1)

14. Notre Dame (5-2)

15. Missouri (6-1)

(* Since Texas Tech’s lone loss came without injured starting quarterback Behren Morton, it could get some benefit of the doubt from the committee. And how might the committee handle Oklahoma’s loss to Texas considering John Mateer had rushed back from injury?)

Among current one-loss teams, it seems Oregon, Alabama and Georgia are in good shape to handle another defeat with playoff standing intact. But the number of other spots available could depend on the teams in Provo and Atlanta. BYU and Georgia Tech remain unbeaten, and if either team gets to championship weekend at 12-0, it will be in no matter what happens in the respective conference title games. That’s not particularly likely — BYU must travel to Iowa State (Week 9), Texas Tech (Week 11) and Cincinnati (Week 13), while Georgia Tech finishes against a torrid Pitt (Week 13) and Georgia (Week 14) — but it remains on the table.

Meanwhile, the hierarchy of teams ranked ninth to 15th above tells us quite a bit. Two-loss Notre Dame obviously needs a little bit of help, but considering there are head-to-heads between No. 9 and 13 and No. 10 and 15 this week, the Fighting Irish will likely move up a couple of spots despite being on a bye week. Their strength-of-schedule numbers will only get worse from here, however, so they need to keep looking the part as they have in recent weeks.

Key upcoming games: Ole Miss at Oklahoma (Week 9), Missouri at Vanderbilt (Week 9), BYU at Texas Tech (Week 9), Texas A&M at Missouri (Week 11), Oklahoma at Alabama (Week 12), Missouri at Oklahoma (Week 13), Georgia at Georgia Tech (Week 14)

4. ACC title race

Georgia Tech barely survived at Wake Forest and needed some red zone implosions from Duke — including a 95-yard Omar Daniels fumble return — to survive in Durham on Saturday. But again, wins are wins, and the Yellow Jackets have seven from seven games.

The Jackets are 4-0 in ACC play, so they have their noses out in front in the conference title race. Still, there are seven teams with at least a 7% chance at the league crown right now: Georgia Tech (26.9%), Louisville (16.8%), Miami (13.4%), Virginia (12.9%), SMU (12.9%), Pitt (8.3%) and Duke (7.3%). Considering the closeness of the games that we’ve already seen between these teams, that makes quite a bit of sense.

In terms of the quantity of teams involved, this race could have ranked higher on the list. But somehow we have only five more remaining games between these seven teams. This race could be decided as much by who avoids unexpected upsets as anything. With only one team really standing out from a quality perspective — Miami is 13th in SP+, and the other six contenders are between 24th and 44th — upsets are somewhere between conceivable and quite likely.

Key upcoming games: Miami at SMU (Week 10), Virginia at Duke (Week 12), Pitt at Georgia Tech (Week 13), Louisville at SMU (Week 13), Miami at Pitt (Week 14)

5. The charge to 6-6

We’re constantly told that there are too many bowls and that they don’t mean what they used to. And yet, one of the most enjoyable storylines in a given season comes when a down-on-its-luck program makes a run at bowl eligibility. Here are some of the more interesting names that have a shot at the postseason in 2025:

Northwestern Wildcats (5-2 record, 80.7% chance at bowl eligibility per SP+): The Wildcats have bowled only once in the past four seasons, and they stumbled out of the gate with a dire 23-3 loss to Tulane in Week 1. But they’ve won four in a row to get to the precipice, and while they’re projected underdogs in each remaining game, they’ll probably snag at least one minor upset.

Temple Owls (5-2, 77.4%): One of my favorite stories of the season. Temple went just 13-42 from 2020 to 2024 but made a knockout hire by bringing veteran K.C. Keeler to town. Last Saturday’s blowout of Charlotte brought the Owls to five wins, and they’re favorites at Tulsa this weekend. (If they don’t beat Tulsa, however, things might get a little bit dicey, as they’re at least slight underdogs in each remaining game.)

New Mexico Lobos (4-3, 76.0%): Jason Eck’s Lobos were pains in Michigan’s neck in Week 1 and pummeled UCLA in Week 3. Losses at San José State and Boise State hurt, but as long as they handle their business at home against Utah State and Colorado State, they’re set.

Wyoming Cowboys (3-4, 37.6%): After stumbling to 3-9 in Jay Sawvel’s first season as Craig Bohl’s successor, the Cowboys have played some entertaining games of late, and their 35-28 win over San José State in Week 7 kept bowl hopes alive. Their odds would hop to around 50-50 with a win over Colorado State on Saturday.

Ball State Cardinals (3-4, 20.7%): The Cardinals slipped from 5-7 to 4-8 to 3-9 over Mike Neu’s final three seasons, and they’ve suffered three massive blowouts this year under Mike Uremovich. But their 3-0 home record has bought them time, and a win at 1-6 Northern Illinois on Saturday would keep hope alive.

New Mexico State Aggies (3-3, 43.3%): NMSU isn’t particularly strong (122nd in SP+) and just fell to Missouri State at home, but Conference USA offers plenty of games against similarly iffy programs. They have only one sure loss (at Tennessee) remaining on the schedule. They’re in the hunt.

Delaware Blue Hens (3-3, 78.0%) and Missouri State Bears (3-3, 44.5%): The FBS newcomers will need help, as they aren’t automatically eligible and would only get bowl bids if there aren’t enough bowl-eligible teams to fill all the slots. Right now it looks like there probably will be. Still, the Blue Hens and Bears have fit in well in CUSA. Delaware has a 14% chance of finishing 8-4 or better, which is always a hell of an accomplishment for a newbie.

6. Conference USA title race

Yes, there’s a lot of dead weight in this conference, but a tight race is a tight race, and heading into Week 9, four teams had between a 20% and 23% title chance — Jacksonville State (22.7%), Louisiana Tech (21.7%), Western Kentucky (21.0%) and Kennesaw State (20.7%) — with a fifth contender (Liberty) at 8.6%.

On Tuesday, Western Kentucky knocked off Louisiana Tech in a genuine game-of-the-week candidate, while Kennesaw State pulled away from Florida International. That will shift the odds in those teams’ favor, but with so much evenness in this conference, advantages will likely shift again in the coming weeks. Kennesaw State’s presence in the race makes things even more fun; the Owls face-planted with a 2-10 FBS debut last season, but under Jerry Mack they nearly beat Wake Forest in Week 1 and have won five straight.

Key upcoming games: Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State (Week 12), Liberty at Louisiana Tech (Week 13), Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (Week 14), Kennesaw State at Liberty (Week 14)

7. Heisman race

First it was Texas’ Arch Manning and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik. Then LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier. Then Oklahoma’s John Mateer. Oregon’s Dante Moore had his turn at the top of the list. Miami’s Carson Beck was up there. The mantle of Heisman Favorite has been a hot potato this season. No one has held on to it for very long.

After the past few weeks of action, with Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza shining for an unbeaten team, Ty Simpson providing a slow drip of heroics during Bama’s run of four straight ranked wins and Julian Sayin completing what feels like 100% of his (mostly safe) passes against mostly overwhelmed opposition, we head into Week 9 with a clear upper tier in the race.

Current ESPN BET Heisman odds: Mendoza +300, Simpson +350, Sayin +400, Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed +1100, Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia +1400, Moore +1800, Georgia’s Gunner Stockton +1800, Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love +2000, Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith +3500, Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss +3500.

If that’s the favorites list we end up with, so be it. At the end of championship weekend, Mendoza, Simpson and Sayin should all have between 3,300 and 3,600 passing yards with about 33 to 39 touchdowns. Solid work. But if you’re a believer in “Heisman Moments,” they might not have many marquee opportunities between now and the conference title games. The door could be open to Pavia or Reed, if they continue leading their respective teams to unforeseen heights. Maybe Stockton keeps bailing his team out with fourth-quarter heroics. Maybe Love produces a couple more 200-yard rushing games and captures the imagination. Maybe in the lack of some obvious 4,000-yard passer, conventional wisdom begins to home in on a defensive player like Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr. or Ohio State’s Caleb Downs. This would be a fun year for a change-of-pace pick. Regardless, I don’t feel like our current favorites list is quite what we’ll have a month from now.

8. MAC title race

There are currently five teams with between a 12% and 25% chance of winning the league — Western Michigan (24.6%), Toledo (19.1%), Miami (Ohio) (19.1%), Buffalo (18.7%) and Ohio (12.3%) — and Miami plays every team on the list besides itself. The RedHawks could play for the crown themselves, but either way they’ll directly decide who gets to play for it. They host smoking-hot Western Michigan this weekend, then play a fellow contender in each of the first three weeks of November’s midweek MACtion slate.

Miami and Western Michigan have each rebounded from 0-3 starts to now stand at 4-3. Western Michigan has overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 21.3 points per game during this winning streak and has jumped 32 spots in SP+ (from 124th to 92nd) in just three games.

Toledo, meanwhile, has beaten projections in five of seven games this year and ranks seventh nationally in points allowed per drive; the problem, as it usually is under Jason Candle: random duds. They lost as projected 18-point favorites to Western Michigan, then blew a 21-point lead (as a 22-point favorite) against Bowling Green. They’re favored by at least eight points in every remaining game, but another MAC dud would almost certainly eliminate them from the list.

Key upcoming games: Western Michigan at Miami (Ohio) (Week 9), Miami (Ohio) at Ohio (Week 11), Ohio at Western Michigan (Week 12), Toledo at Miami (Ohio) (Week 12), Miami (Ohio) at Buffalo (Week 13), Ohio at Buffalo (Week 14)

9. Biletnikoff Award race

The preseason watch list for the Biletnikoff Award, given to the nation’s best wide receiver, tends to feature approximately a million names, give or take. But among the six current per-game receiving yardage leaders, only three made that initial list: USC‘s Makai Lemon, Louisville’s Chris Bell and Arizona State‘s Jordyn Tyson. San José State‘s Danny Scudero and Texas A&M’s Mario Craver had to be added to the list on Oct. 1, and Illinois’ Hank Beatty was added on Oct. 15.

Of the nine wideouts listed in our preseason Top 100 players list, none are in the nation’s top 10 in receiving yards per game, and only five are in the top 50. The only reason Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith, the No. 1 player in the country on that preseason list, is even in the top 15 in yards per game is because he had 272 combined yards against Grambling and Ohio. In five games against power-conference opponents, he’s averaging 66.0 yards per game and 9.4 yards per catch.

A lot of this lack of production comes from the fact that, aside from a season-opening dud against Texas (six catches, 43 yards), Ohio State hasn’t needed him to shine brightly yet. Buckeyes games haven’t been remotely close, and it’s fair to assume Smith will be just as ridiculous in their likely upcoming CFP trip as he was last year. But to win the award as the nation’s best receiver, shouldn’t you actually have to do something in-season? Will voters lean toward Lemon (108.3 yards per game), Bell (106.3) or a new star like Craver (95.4)? Will they vote for someone like Smith or Alabama’s Ryan Williams (60.4 yards per team game) based on what we all assume they are instead? It’s an interesting philosophical question.

10. Big 12 title race

Heading into Week 9 last season, Arizona State was 5-2 but only 52nd in SP+, having wobbled through a series of close games and having suffered a mid-October upset loss without injured quarterback Sam Leavitt. As you probably remember, the Sun Devils caught fire, winning six straight, winning the Big 12 with a rout of Iowa State and all but beating Texas in the CFP quarterfinals.

ASU has certainly lined up a lot of parallels heading into Week 9 of 2025. Same record? Check. Same September mediocrity? Check. Same mid-October loss sans Leavitt? Check. Another SP+ ranking in the 50s? Check (55th). Despite a 3-1 conference record, and despite last week’s upset of Texas Tech, ASU has only a 4.8% title chance at the moment, per SP+. From a statistical standpoint, a conference title run would be just as unexpected as last year’s. It would be one hell of a story if they caught fire again.

Right now, three teams have at least a 17% title chance, per SP+: Texas Tech (34.8%), BYU (25.1%) and Cincinnati (17.5%). Utah (6.6%), ASU (4.8%) and Houston (4.1%) are still in the hunt, and if Iowa State (2.6%) regains its early-season form, the Cyclones could beat some contenders down the stretch — including unbeaten BYU this weekend — and insert themselves in the race as well.

Key upcoming games: Houston at Arizona State (Week 9), Cincinnati at Utah (Week 10), BYU at Texas Tech (Week 11), BYU at Cincinnati (Week 13)

When the 2025 World Series starts Friday night in Toronto, Shohei Ohtani will step to the plate for the first at-bat of the Fall Classic wearing the Los Angeles Dodgers uniform we’ve all become accustomed to seeing him in over the past two MLB seasons.

But there is another world, one not as far-fetched as you might think, where Ohtani could instead be toeing the rubber for Game 1 — and coming up to bat in the bottom of the first inning — for the Toronto Blue Jays instead.

Similarly, Roki Sasaki has changed Los Angeles’ postseason by emerging as the flamethrowing closer the Dodgers desperately needed to solidify a shaky bullpen this month. But in another world, also not that far removed, Sasaki could be playing the part of rookie sensation for the Blue Jays instead of facing them with games on the line.

How close were Ohtani and Sasaki to picking the Blue Jays over the Dodgers as their much-hyped free agent decisions played out? How did the two tense decision days — one that turned the entire internet into international flight trackers — go down? How good would the Blue Jays have been the past two seasons with Ohtani on their roster? And what would the Dodgers have done to counter if they had lost out on baseball’s two-way superstar?

Let’s dig in.

Jump to:

Ohtani timeline | Sasaki timeline | Jays with Ohtani | Dodgers’ Plan B?

Timeline of the Ohtani, Blue Jays deal that never happened

The jokes are now everywhere: Hey, Shohei Ohtani is finally getting on a plane to Toronto. The Dodgers actually played in Toronto in April 2024, but we get it: There was that frenzied Friday in December 2023 when everybody thought Ohtani was on a plane headed to Toronto to sign with the Blue Jays.

What happened that day, Friday, Dec. 8? First, a user on a social media site posted that Thursday evening that a private jet — tail number N616RH — was scheduled to fly from Southern California to Toronto on Friday morning. Somebody else discovered the same jet had been in Oakland when Ohtani had met with the San Francisco Giants. A baseball writer pointed out that Ohtani’s decision to sign with the Angels six years before had come on … Dec. 8.

It was all adding up. The Dodgers Nation fan site published a report saying Ohtani had chosen the Blue Jays. Then MLB Network reported that Ohtani was traveling to Toronto. With N616RH in the air, fans began assembling at the private terminal at Toronto’s Pearson Airport.

But it wasn’t Ohtani on the plane. It was “Shark Tank” judge Robert Herjavec. On Saturday, Ohtani posted his decision on Instagram: “I have decided to choose the Dodgers as my next team.” The rest is history.

Timeline of the Sasaki, Blue Jays deal that also never happened

Upon announcing he would be coming to the majors from Japan early in the 2024-25 offseason, Roki Sasaki immediately became the most coveted free agent available, thanks to his immense talent and the team-friendly conditions of his contract.

After meeting with several teams, Sasaki’s camp revealed that the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers and Giants had all been told they were out of the running — leaving three suitors as finalists: the San Diego Padres, the Dodgers and, surprisingly, the Blue Jays.

In the final days leading up to the decision, Sasaki reportedly visited Toronto and the Jays suddenly appeared to be a real player in what had previously seemed to be a race between the two NL West teams vying for his services.

The Blue Jays’ flames were further fanned when reports came out Jan. 17 that the Padres were also out, meaning Sasaki’s decision — much like Ohtani’s an offseason earlier — would come down to Los Angeles and Toronto. The Blue Jays even made a deal with the Cleveland Guardians taking on outfielder Myles Straw, and the $13.8 million remaining on Straw’s contract, to acquire an additional $2 million in international bonus space — presumably to use on Sasaki.

Then that evening — just as Ohtani had done 13 months prior — Sasaki announced via Instagram that he would be joining the Dodgers, and Toronto was left at the doorstep once again.

Simulating the last two seasons with Ohtani in Toronto

There are a lot of choices to make when reimagining baseball history, especially when you’re talking about a transaction at the top of the hierarchy such as when Ohtani chose the Dodgers.

Once that domino fell, it set off a chain reaction that worked its way through most if not all of the majors. You can’t simply put the domino back upright, push it down the opposite direction and see how things follow.

So we’ll make a few choices, run some simulations and see where we are.

Dodgers: The L.A. part of this is more straightforward. Removing Ohtani from their mix the last two seasons would hurt them, because he produces at a level few other players can approach. But it’s not as if the Dodgers would have folded up their checkbook and gone home. They would have reallocated some portion of the funds they allotted for Ohtani to other players (see Dave’s possibilities in the next section).

For the sake of coming up with a revised Dodgers baseline, it’s better to avoid trying to guess how the Dodgers might have spent the money.

So let’s use a standard instead. The Dodgers’ competitive balance tax hit for Ohtani, per Cot’s Contracts, is estimated at $46 million per season. There’s a premium in there because of Ohtani’s stature — it’s actually hard to find a player to spend that much on — so let’s say they would have reallocated $40 million in terms of their luxury tax calculation to other resources. If we stick with the old standard of an average win purchased in free agency being valued at $8 million, we can estimate that the production from Dodgers’ Plan B player(s) would have been worth about five wins per season over the last two campaigns.

Per Baseball Reference, Ohtani produced 9.2 bWAR in 2024 for his work as a DH and 7.7 in 2025 for his pitching and hitting. So we’re going to reduce the Dodgers’ baseline by 4.2 wins in 2024 and 2.7 in 2025. My end-of-season simple power rating for L.A. in 2024 was 95.9, so we’ll take that down to 91.7. In 2025, I had them at 92.9, so we’re down to 90.2. These won’t be the precise numbers used in the simulations, as we’ve got to make sure the distribution of wins across the majors totals up to the 2,430 wins at stake in a big league season, but these numbers are close.

Blue Jays: The Toronto adjustment is a little more complicated in that we actually know what they did after they failed to land Ohtani. What we don’t know is what moves would not have occurred had they signed him, or the contract he ultimately would have gotten from Toronto. Let’s start with the financial part.

Luckily, we had Jeff Passan and Alden Gonzalez on the case, so we know that Ohtani reportedly presented other teams, including the Blue Jays, with the same terms he gave to the Dodgers and that Toronto agreed to them. So we can use that same $46 million as Toronto’s CBT number on the Jays’ balance sheet, though the ramifications for the Jays in that regard are different because of their lower overall payroll.

After Ohtani signed with the Dodgers, the Blue Jays signed three veteran free agent hitters: Isiah Kiner-Falefa (two years, $15 million), Kevin Kiermaier (one year, $10.5 million) and Justin Turner (one year, $13 million). The 2024 payout for those three was a combined $38.5 million, and it would take some additional belt tightening to get to Ohtani’s salary. The Jays’ Opening Day payroll was about $13 million over the first CBT threshold and $7 million below the second. So they could ax this trio, drop Ohtani into the payroll, and still likely stay under the second threshold, if that was a goal.

Kiner-Falefa, Kiermaier and Turner posted a combined 4.5 bWAR between them, and frankly, reconfiguring the Toronto depth chart to absorb their absences isn’t that hard. The difference between their production and Ohtani’s is a hefty 4.7 bWAR, so we’ll add that to Toronto’s 2024 baseline. Alas, the Jays weren’t very good in 2024, so adding that figure to their end-of-season power ranking (70.9) takes them up to only 75.6.

Working Ohtani’s $46 million onto Toronto’s 2025 payroll is more challenging. According to Cot’s, Toronto’s end-of-season CBT payroll was $28 million over the first threshold and $8 million over the second. Certainly, the Blue Jays would not have signed Anthony Santander if they had Ohtani in hand and, perhaps, knowing Ohtani could also pitch for them in 2025, perhaps they would not have sprung for Max Scherzer.

Even so, because Santander’s deal involved so much deferred money, we’re still talking about a tax payroll that’s something like another $17 million higher even after we drop Scherzer and Santander. But, hey, it’s not our money, so let’s do it. For the sake of this exercise, we won’t have Toronto pursue Sasaki after Ohtani becomes a Blue Jay.

There are other possible consequences that, for now, we’ll ignore. First of all, would the Blue Jays have been able to be as aggressive in extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a long-term deal if they knew Ohtani had the DH spot locked up for the next decade? Would George Springer‘s bounce-back season been harmed by having to spend more time in the field? Worth thinking about.

But we’ll stick with the straightforward adjustments. Together, Scherzer (0.2 bWAR) and Santander (minus-1.0) were a net drag on the Blue Jays’ bottom line. Replacing them with Ohtani is a huge gain, though we’re cheating a bit by not doing more of a playing time redistribution. Scherzer was limited to 85 innings during the season, but Ohtani logged only 47. But Ohtani rolled up 727 plate appearances, dwarfing Santander’s 221. In other words, Ohtani would have also usurped at-bats from players such as Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger and Davis Schneider, just to start.

We’ll keep it simple and just add Ohtani’s 7.7 2025 bWAR to the Blue Jays’ bottom line. Toronto’s power rating was 90.1 at the end of the season, so we’re at an elite 97.8. Now we’re getting somewhere.

Let’s sim that out and see what happens.

2024: The actual Blue Jays went 74-88 with a run differential that suggested their record was in lockstep with their quality of play. The true talent level of the team was better than that, with or without Ohtani. Toronto won 89 games in 2023 and made the postseason. They’re in the World Series this year. Sometimes decent teams have bad seasons — take heart, Orioles fans! — and that was Toronto in 2024.

With Ohtani on board in our what-if world, the Blue Jays won the World Series in just three of 10,000 simulations. Maybe having Ohtani’s historic production on the roster would have boosted the rest of the squad, but we can’t know that for sure. They did make the playoffs about 7% of the time, so it was less hopeless than real life. Still, even with Ohtani, the 2024 Jays would have entered that offseason believing they had work to do.

As for the Dodgers, there is nowhere to go but down since, after all, they won the World Series. In the no-Ohtani world, the Dodgers’ reduced baseline got them into the playoffs in 73% of the sims. That seems low, but dropping them to a 90-win team or so puts them on a crowded tier in the big league landscape. The Dodgers still made the World Series 13% of the time and won the title 7% of the time, behind the now-heavily-favored Yankees (24%), Phillies and Astros (both 8%).

Finally, in our 10,000 resimulations of the 2024 season, the Dodgers played the Blue Jays in the World Series four times. Los Angeles won all four showdowns.

2025: One factor is Ohtani’s innings workload as it might have been for Toronto. We’re leaving his 7.7 bWAR as is, but you have to think the Blue Jays might have been somewhat more aggressive in ramping up his innings count, simply because they lack the ridiculous depth of the Dodgers’ staff. Still, adding his two-way punch to the roster and performance of the 2025 Blue Jays gives Toronto easily the top-rated baseline in our resimulated campaign.

That shows up in the end-of-season probabilities and would render Toronto as a solid favorite if it did end up meeting the Ohtani-less Dodgers in the World Series. Because L.A.’s regular season was, for the Dodgers, a bit lackluster, losing Ohtani doesn’t really move them down a tier as it did in the 2024 reimagining. But it certainly doesn’t help.

We can do a little bit more in direct comparison with the current season. The Blue Jays made the postseason in 92% of the simulations. In the actual postseason, Toronto started off with an 11% shot at winning it all, using this system of power rankings, behind Milwaukee and New York. With Ohtani, they won an MLB-high 15% of the simulations. Meanwhile, the Dodgers made the playoffs 71% of the time, similar to the 2024 resimulation, and won the Series around 6% of the time.

This method isn’t entirely fair to the 2025 Dodgers, whose true talent level is well above what they did in the regular season. That would be better reflected if I had used projections rather than the actual final standings. But the Dodgers did what they did, so don’t blame me. We’re seeing that true talent level in action this October.

As you expect, a Dodgers-Blue Jays World Series cropped up way more often in the 2025 sims — 277 times, altogether. In those matchups, the Blue Jays went 171-106 (61.7%). This is roughly the polar opposite of most of the Dodgers-favored World Series odds that are circulating right now. In my system, the reversal is almost exact: The Dodgers are winning 60.9% of the sims in most post-LCS analysis.

So if you want to know how different a Dodgers-Blue Jays World Series would look had Shohei been on that plane, that’s the bottom line: Exactly the opposite.

Five moves the Dodgers could have made if they didn’t land Ohtani

But what if Ohtani had been on that plane? While Brad’s simulations are best served by not playing the what-if game, we know L.A. would have done something — and knowing the Dodgers, likely something big. What might the Dodgers’ 2024-25 offseason have looked like without Ohtani? Where might that money have gone?

In our alternate universe, we have to remember how the 2023 season ended for the Dodgers: with the Diamondbacks sweeping the Dodgers in the NLDS after the Dodgers started an injured Clayton Kershaw (who got one out and allowed six runs); started Bobby Miller (who got five outs and allowed three runs); and started Lance Lynn (who had led the majors with 44 home runs allowed, got eight outs and allowed four home runs in the third inning).

The focus was on starting pitching, which is why after signing Ohtani the Dodgers traded for Tyler Glasnow and then signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Without Ohtani, however, here are five other moves that would have made sense (all these players were involved in transactions that happened after Dec. 9, 2024):

1. Trade for Dylan Cease

What really happened: The Padres acquired Cease from the Chicago White Sox

One reason the Dodgers signed Ohtani and Yamamoto was they were admittedly getting tired of trading prospects. Until this 2023-24 offseason, they had rarely dipped into the big-money free agency in the Andrew Friedman era (Freddie Freeman and Trevor Bauer had been the only $100 million free agents the Dodgers had signed).

They might have made an exception to trade for Cease. He’s the kind of pitcher the Dodgers love, with a big power arm. More importantly, coming off all the Dodgers’ injuries in 2023, Cease had made 32 starts in 2021, 32 in 2022 and 33 in 2023. Corbin Burnes was also traded after Ohtani had signed, but Cease had two years of control left versus just one for Burnes. Chris Sale also went from the Boston Red Sox to the Atlanta Braves and went on to win the Cy Young Award, but his proneness to injury would have scared off the Dodgers.

2. Sign Blake Snell — a year early

What really happened: Snell signed with the Giants for two years, $62 million

Snell was coming off a Cy Young Award with the Padres in 2023, his second, and was looking for a mega-contract. ESPN predicted six years and $150 million; MLB Trade Rumors predicted seven years and $200 million. The Philadelphia Phillies, Mets, Red Sox and Dodgers were considered the favorites to sign him, with many other teams in the mix.

That big offer never arrived, with teams worried about Snell’s inconsistency. His free agency lingered deep into spring training until he finally signed with the Giants just 10 days before the start of the season. His deal included an opt-out, which he exercised after a scintillating stretch run with the Giants (1.23 ERA over his final 14 starts). This time, the Dodgers decided they wanted him, and they signed him after the 2024 season.

3. Sign Josh Hader

What really happened: Hader signed with the Houston Astros for five years, $95 million

Might the Dodgers have gone after a reliever? The bullpen had been pretty good in 2023, ranking third in the majors in ERA, with Evan Phillips (2.05 ERA, 24 saves) and Brusdar Graterol (1.20 ERA, seven saves) leading the way. But the Dodgers had also relied on castoffs such as Ryan Brasier, Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller, so you could argue that an elite closer like Hader was a good fit. Plus, as the Dodgers showed in the 2024-25 offseason after spending $72 million on Tanner Scott, they are willing to spend big money on a closer.

4. Sign Jung Hoo Lee

What really happened: Lee signed with Giants for six years, $113 million

Lee was one of the top outfielders available in free agency, a star in Korea who projected as a leadoff hitter with a high average and good defense in center field. The Dodgers’ outfield in 2023 included David Peralta, who was 35, and James Outman, who had kind of a fluky good rookie season. The Dodgers did end up signing Teoscar Hernandez to a one-year deal, but when Mookie Betts initially moved to shortstop and Outman predictably floundered, they were playing Jason Heyward and had to trade for Tommy Edman. Lee would have been a fit for center field, although he hasn’t been as good as expected with the Giants, who overpaid by some $40 million-$50 million compared with the initial predictions, so maybe the Dodgers dodged a bad signing here.

5. Sign Matt Chapman

What really happened: Chapman signed with Giants for three years, $54 million

Max Muncy was coming off a 36-homer season in 2023, but he had hit .196 in 2022 and .212 in 2023. Plus, there is no Ohtani here, so the Dodgers could have signed Chapman and moved Muncy to the DH role or maybe even to second base, where Muncy had played a lot from 2019 to 2022 and was a position that had been a problem for the Dodgers in 2023 (Miguel Vargas started the most games there, with Betts eventually starting by the end of the season).

After days of negotiations, Tennessee coach Tony Vitello has been named the new manager of the San Francisco Giants, the team announced Wednesday, marking the first time a big league team has hired a manager directly from a college program without any experience as a professional coach.

Vitello — who considered staying at Tennessee, where he won the Men’s College World Series in 2024 — replaces Bob Melvin, who was fired Sept. 29 following an 81-81 season, the Giants’ fourth consecutive year without a playoff berth.

“I’m incredibly honored and grateful for this opportunity,” Vitello said in a statement. “I’m excited to lead this group of players and represent the San Francisco Giants. I can’t wait to get started and work to establish a culture that makes Giants faithful proud.”

Vitello, 47, was regarded as one of the best coaches in college baseball, a high-energy recruiting wizard who built talent-laden teams and turned around a program that had toiled in mediocrity for decades. He emerged as the Giants’ main target after former San Francisco catcher Nick Hundley withdrew from consideration.

By making Vitello his first managerial hire, San Francisco president of baseball operations Buster Posey is banking on Vitello’s success at Tennessee translating to the major leagues. Chosen over former Baltimore Orioles manager Brandon Hyde and two other former big league catchers interviewed by the Giants — Kurt Suzuki and Vance Wilson — Vitello distinguished himself as one of the preeminent coaches in the country during a two-decade career as an assistant and head coach in college, enough so that the Giants were willing to pay the $3 million buyout on his contract, sources said.

“We’re thrilled to welcome Tony to the Giants family,” said Posey in a statement. “Tony is one of the brightest, most innovative, and most respected coaches in college baseball today. Throughout our search, Tony’s leadership, competitiveness, and commitment to developing players stood out. His ability to build strong, cohesive teams and his passion for the game align perfectly with the values of our organization. We look forward to the energy and direction he will bring, along with the memories to be made, as we focus on the future of Giants baseball.”

The closest facsimile to Vitello would be Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy, who spent 25 years coaching in college before joining the San Diego Padres as a minor league manager. Murphy then spent eight years as Brewers bench coach before taking over as manager in 2024, when he won National League Manager of the Year.

Vitello’s move to the major leagues will come at a far more rapid pace. Outside of a first-place NL West finish in 2021, the Giants have finished third or worse in the division every year since 2017. Beyond the dominance of the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Giants are seen by evaluators as a less-talented team than San Diego and Arizona as well. San Francisco’s core of first baseman Rafael Devers, shortstop Willy Adames and third baseman Matt Chapman is solid — and could be strengthened this winter via free agent spending, according to sources.

Following more than 10 years as an assistant coach at Missouri, TCU and Arkansas, Vitello took over a moribund Tennessee program before the 2018 season and posted a 341-131 record, advancing to the Men’s College World Series in 2021, 2023 and 2024. With a pair of eventual first-round draft picks and four second-rounders, Tennessee beat Texas A&M to win the school’s first baseball national championship last year.

Vitello, whose boisterous personality endeared him at Tennessee and chafed other SEC schools, enters an entirely different realm in MLB. Whereas college jobs are often defined by the success of recruiting classes, major league teams are constructed by baseball-operations departments with the manager relied upon for clubhouse cohesion, in-game decision-making, bullpen usage and daily media interactions.

Tennessee athletic director Danny White issued a statement Wednesday thanking Vitello for elevating the Vols to a “championship program.”

“Congratulations to Tony on this incredible opportunity to lead the San Francisco Giants,” White wrote. “We wish him the best as he embarks on this new chapter in his career and thank him for everything he has done to transform Tennessee baseball into a championship program.”

The reticence of MLB teams to dip into the college ranks for managers is long established and has run counter to the hiring practices of other professional sports leagues. NFL teams have regularly plucked head coaches from the college ranks, and in the NBA, there is no stigma associated with college coaches. Major league organizations have been more open to hiring coaches from college than managers. Pitching coach Wes Johnson left Arkansas to take the same role with the Minnesota Twins in 2019; he left the Twins three years later to accept the pitching coach job at LSU before joining Georgia as its head coach prior to the 2024 season.

In an interview with ESPN in June, Vitello said his reputation as a rabble-rouser did not bother him and that he had no plans to change his approach to coaching, which called for pushing boundaries.

“I think you don’t know where the line is until you cross it. And then you make an adjustment,” Vitello said. “I don’t want our guys, if they give them a coloring book, I don’t want them just coloring inside the lines. You know, come up with something different.”