How Vanderbilt has gone from SEC doormat to CFP contender
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Mark Schlabach
NASHVILLE — Earlier this summer, Australian Football League coach Damien Hardwick stumbled across the Netflix series, “Any Given Saturday,” which followed SEC teams throughout the 2024 season.
Hardwick, coach of the Gold Coast Suns in Queensland, was fascinated while watching the third episode, “Shock the World,” which documented Vanderbilt‘s 40-35 upset of then-No. 1 Alabama on Oct. 5, 2024.
It was the Commodores’ first victory over a No. 1-ranked team and their first over the Crimson Tide in 40 years.
Led by an undersized, fiery quarterback and a coaching staff convinced it could take on the world, Vanderbilt flipped the script from being the SEC’s perennial punching bag to world beaters.
“The club I’m at now is very, very similar,” Hardwick said. “A bit of a laughingstock, a bit of a joke. People used to come to our place for a holiday.”
The Gold Coast Suns, an expansion team that joined the AFL in 2009, had never captured a final series berth in their 16-year history until this past season. Hardwick was so impressed by Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea and the culture he built that he and four of his assistants took a 22-hour flight to the United States and spent two days with the Commodores this week.
“He’s a connector,” Hardwick said of Lea. “We were fortunate enough to sit in his meeting, and I felt like running through a brick wall for him with the way he goes about it. He’s just a very smart operator. The way he gets his people to do great things is what makes a great coach, and that’s the reason I think they’re having success.”
Lea and quarterback Diego Pavia are two big reasons for Vanderbilt’s success, but they aren’t the only people behind its sudden transformation from SEC also-ran to legitimate College Football Playoff contender.
Heading into Saturday’s game at No. 20 Texas (noon ET, ABC), the Commodores are 7-1 for the first time since 1941 and No. 9 in the AP poll, their highest ranking since they were seventh for one week in 1937.
According to Lea, chancellor Daniel Diermeier and athletic director Candice Storey Lee deserve just as much credit as the players and coaches for providing the financial resources and other support that previously wasn’t there for the football team at one of the country’s most highly regarded academic institutions.
“Vanderbilt’s never cared about this program,” said Lea, a Vanderbilt fullback from 2002 to 2004. “Well, I shouldn’t say never because of some of the records that we’re breaking right now, so maybe back in the 1940s or whatever. But there’s never been a time where it was like, ‘Hey, we’re going to be really good at this, and we’re going to do the things we need.’
“In fact, if anything, I think there’s been almost a resistance to that for fear that it cuts against a narrative that we’re an elite academic institution. What our chancellor understands now is that this is the front porch.”
Diermeier, who was named Vanderbilt’s ninth chancellor in July 2020, is a most unlikely college football fan. He grew up in West Berlin, Germany, during the Cold War. He was a sports fan as a child, watching Olympic wrestling and World Cup soccer on TV. He was the first person in his family to attend college and went to USC as an international student in 1988.
Diermeier spoke fairly fluent English but didn’t know much about the sports metaphors that are a part of American vernacular. Someone in the USC language lab suggested he watch sports on TV to learn about phrases such as “got the ball across the goal line” and “hit a home run.”
Diermeier wasn’t familiar with baseball or American football but decided to follow the sports anyway. The first baseball game he watched was Game 1 of the 1988 World Series, in which Dodgers pinch-hitter Kirk Gibson smacked a walk-off, two-run homer against A’s closer Dennis Eckersley and famously hobbled around the bases in the ninth inning of a 5-4 victory.
That same year, No. 2 USC, led by star quarterback Rodney Peete, defeated No. 6 UCLA 31-22 in the Rose Bowl to improve to 10-0. USC lost to No. 1 Notre Dame 27-10 in its regular-season finale, knocking it out of the national championship hunt.
“The whole campus was crazy,” Diermeier recalled. “There was Rodney Peete versus [UCLA quarterback] Troy Aikman. It was fantastic, and I just loved it. I saw what college athletics can do for a community. It was a very powerful experience.”
After earning a PhD in political science at the University of Rochester, Diermeier’s academic career ascended from Stanford’s Graduate School of Business to Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management to the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago, where he also served as provost.
The football programs at Stanford and Northwestern were similar to Vanderbilt’s — they were trying to be competitive at high-academic institutions. They enjoyed stretches of being good but largely have struggled.
“People told me, ‘Yeah, you have seen the Big Ten and you have seen the Pac-12, [but] you have not seen the SEC and that’s a different game,'” Diermeier said. “They were right, and so it became very quickly clear that this is a different level of intensity, a different level of passion, and that we had not performed on that level.”
The Commodores went 0-9 in Diermeier’s first season on campus during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Vanderbilt fired coach Derek Mason, whose teams went 27-55 in seven seasons, and replaced him with Lea, who had been Notre Dame‘s defensive coordinator for three seasons.
It wasn’t like the Commodores had never won in the 21st century. Lea’s coach at Vanderbilt, Bobby Johnson, had some success, guiding the Commodores to a 7-6 record and bowl victory in 2008. James Franklin pulled off what had seemed impossible, directing Vandy to back-to-back 9-4 campaigns in 2012 and 2013.
But a criminal case involving four football players accused of raping and sodomizing an unconscious 21-year-old female student in a dorm room hung a dark cloud over the program. Three of the four players were convicted; the fourth reached a plea deal with prosecutors.
“Unfortunately, [Franklin] left in a manner that wasn’t great [because] you had this rape trial that really was a black eye for the program,” Lea said. “And so that stretch of success was kind of almost wiped away.”
Lea didn’t have immediate success at his alma mater. The Commodores went 2-10 in 2021 and improved to 5-7 the next season. After going 2-10 again in 2023, Lea knew things had to change dramatically if Vanderbilt was ever going to be good.
After losing All-SEC offensive tackle Tyler Steen to Alabama following the 2021 season and 1,000-yard rusher Ray Davis to Kentucky the next season, Lea realized the Commodores couldn’t be competitive in the SEC unless they took more seasoned players from the transfer portal and became more competitive in name, image and likeness payouts.
After going 9-27 in his first three seasons, Lea told his athletic director that if the school couldn’t find $3 million in donations before the transfer portal opened in December 2023, Vanderbilt wouldn’t have a program.
Lee secured $6 million in NIL contributions in one week, according to Lea.
“She knew what was going on here,” Lea said. “We’ve never been disorganized. It’s always been purposeful and intentional. But it’s so easy when things don’t go well to blame the team. It’s so easy when things don’t go well to blame the coach. She was such a partner and wanted to solve the problem. In that one week, she never flinched.”
That money helped the Commodores land New Mexico State transfers Pavia and star tight end Eli Stowers after Lea hired then-Aggies coach Jerry Kill as his chief consultant and senior offensive advisor. Lea also brought in New Mexico State offensive coordinator Tim Beck and three other assistants to help turn things around.
When Vanderbilt general manager Barton Simmons talked to Pavia for the first time, the former junior college quarterback who didn’t have a single FBS or FCS scholarship offer coming out of high school, told him: “Just tell Coach Lea if he brings me here, we’re gonna win every f—ing game we play.”
“It didn’t feel like bulls—, and it felt authentic,” Simmons said. “He wasn’t saying it in an impulsive way. It was almost like he was expressing his belief.”
The Commodores haven’t won every game with Pavia under center, but they’ve won more than most people would have believed. He’s among the Heisman Trophy favorites after passing for 1,698 yards with 15 touchdowns and leading the team in rushing with 458 yards and five scores.
Lea said Pavia has brought much more to the Commodores than his production.
“There’s only so much I can do as head coach to establish leadership in the program,” Lea said. “What I’ve learned through Diego is, first of all, there’s no one more important on the team than the quarterback. And second, you can’t manufacture alpha leadership, but once you have an alpha leader, that attitude can spread throughout.”
Simmons, a former recruiting analyst for Rivals.com and 247Sports, was one of Lea’s football teammates at Montgomery Bell Academy in Nashville. They won two state titles together. Simmons was a defensive back at Yale, while Lea went to play baseball at Birmingham Southern before transferring to Vanderbilt.
Simmons was among Lea’s first hires, putting him in charge of personnel and roster development, while assisting in recruiting and scouting.
A former SEC defensive coordinator told ESPN that the Commodores have done a remarkable job of evaluating transfers, especially in the trenches. All five of their starting offensive linemen are graduate transfers or seniors from other schools. The top three reserves also are transfers.
The Vanderbilt coaching staff’s message to potential recruits and transfers is clear: “If you’re coming here, this is going to be really, really hard because you’re playing in the best conference in college football,” Simmons said. “We’re going to hold you to the highest standards in college football. And you’re going to have to go to class during the week next to some of the smartest people in the world.”
While Diermeier has helped by securing athletes priority registration for classes to keep practice times open and creating more slots for graduate transfers, Vanderbilt’s academic requirements and expectations haven’t wavered.
“We say, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, that we compete with Harvard Monday to Friday and with Alabama on Saturday,” Diermeier said.
Lee wasn’t done in getting her football coach what he needed, either. The ongoing Vandy United campaign has raised more than $350 million to improve athletics facilities and the student-athlete experience.
The new south end at FirstBank Stadium includes a multiuse, 130,000 square foot facility with a new football locker room, premium seating, dining facility and renovated concourse.
A previously completed north end zone project included a new videoboard, premium seating and a basketball practice facility.
Lea hopes the football investments aren’t over. He wants a stand-alone football operations building and indoor practice facility. Lea said the current weight room doesn’t allow his entire team to work out together.
The university provided $100 million to the campaign fund to get it off the ground.
“It’s essential to have alignment from the very top,” Lee said. “So in order for me to execute the vision, I do have to have support and someone in our chancellor who wants to be bold, who’s not beholden to the past, who doesn’t care about what the history was. [Diermeier] said from the very beginning that there would be no daylight between us, and he would support the vision that I had.”
With the changing landscape in college athletics, Lee realized Vanderbilt was in danger of being left behind if hefty investments weren’t made.
“The past has kind of always hung over us,” Lee said. “We’ve had these moments of success, but they’ve been fleeting. We don’t want to just experience success in a moment, right? We want to be able to sustain excellence, and that’s what this university expects across the board.”
Diermeier, a former business school professor, put it another way, comparing the rapidly evolving world of college sports to the deregulation of U.S. airlines in 1978.
“I want to be Southwest,” he said. “I don’t want to be Pan Am.”
Lee has deep roots at Vanderbilt. She was a captain of the women’s basketball team in 2002 and earned bachelor’s, master’s and doctorate degrees there. She became the school’s first female athletic director and the first Black woman to lead an SEC athletic department in 2020.
While some have suggested that she and Lea have grand visions for Vanderbilt football only because they went to school there, she says that’s not the case.
“I mean, we are both alums and so we care deeply for this place, but it’s not just that,” she said. “It’s not just an emotional connection, and we do have that, but it is also because we are fierce competitors that deeply believe that this can become something great.”
While Lea once feared NIL and the transfer portal would leave the Commodores behind, he now calls their presence the great disruptor. It has leveled the playing field for schools like Vanderbilt, Indiana and Georgia Tech, if the right financial resources are in place.
“We’ve become a really attractive place because this is also different,” Lea said. “People are inspired by the idea of building something and not inheriting something.”
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Dan Wetzel
The purpose of the College Football Playoff selection committee is to sort through the unsortable — deciding between two teams of similar accomplishment.
This sport is a spectacular mess, of course, famously and belovedly so. The FBS level has 136 teams playing 12 regular-season games competing for one championship. The schedules are disparate, even within the current oversize “conferences.”
No one would design such a thing. Big schools. Small schools. State schools. Religious institutions. Even three military academies. From L.A. (Los Angeles) to L.A. (Lower Alabama). It’s glorious.
If a proper computer formula exists to figure out who should or shouldn’t be in a playoff, none has earned the trust of the sport. College football, after all, ain’t much for college.
So, it has a selection committee — 13 people who make the final, difficult, no-truly-correct-answer call. Their thanks comes from a barrage of hate courtesy of whomever they didn’t choose.
That there is controversy, hard feelings and anger doesn’t mean the system isn’t working.
It’s a sign that it is.
A sport that used to leave unbeaten teams out of the title game is now arguing about 10-2 and 9-3 clubs. A postseason that was once a collection of mostly meaningless exhibition bowl games designed as tourism campaigns is now anchored by a 12-team, 11-game free-for-all.
At least half a dozen teams must believe they can actually win the national title. Maybe more. Four playoff games will be staged on campuses, not at antiseptic NFL stadiums. The title will be settled on the field. This is the good stuff.
It’s why everyone needs to exhale for a moment.
Don’t let the pursuit of (unachievable) perfection get in the way of progress. This is always going to be an imperfect operation.
Would it be better if the ACC’s tiebreaker system didn’t malfunction and both Miami (as ACC champ) and Notre Dame (as an at-large selection) were in the field? Of course. But the presence of James Madison and some Fighting Irish disappointment shouldn’t cause anyone to take a wrecking ball to this entire enterprise.
College athletics is famous for knee-jerk decisions that it comes to regret. It too often makes policy via emotional swings and selfish reasoning without vision for the future.
Leagues get blown up (or expanded) for basic cable subscriptions (which are already dwindling). Legal cases are waged on the idea NIL will decrease competitive balance (Indiana is currently ranked No. 1). Congress is lobbied with hysterics that the sport needs “saving” (all while interest, revenue and television ratings rise).
The latest overreaction is to kill off this 2-year-old playoff for a bigger model that will supposedly be controversy-free (impossible) — one with 24 teams, at least, or with four automatic bids to certain conferences or who knows what else.
The committee is the punching bag. Subjectivity is the wedge issue. Conspiracies are everywhere. Emotions are running hot.
Look, there is one sure way for major programs to get into this thing: win your conference. If not, then you get into the knife fight that is the at-large selection process. Anything can happen. Criteria can shift. Decisions can seem unfair or arbitrary.
If, like Notre Dame, you find more overall value in independence, then this is your trade-off. It isn’t going to work as you wish every time.
Are there improvements and tweaks that can be made? Of course.
The committee should no longer release weekly rankings during the back half of the season. A single verdict should come out at the end. The current setup is good for content (including here at ESPN, which broadcasts the weekly rankings), but it undermines the credibility of the process. The week-to-week contradictions are maddening and, even worse, can box in the committee’s final decision.
Bloated leagues could return to divisions in an effort to create scheduling structure or find other ways to fix tiebreakers (ahem, ACC).
Two rounds of home games would increase the importance of seeding and bring more campuses and local communities into the fold. That would serve fans and families rather than bowl directors.
Conference championship weekend could even be eliminated altogether; if Alabama can get beaten soundly and not drop, then was it even a real game? (And yes, BYU, we see you.) That would move the playoff up a week and allow for the semifinals on New Year’s Day and a title game in early January rather than during the heart of the NFL postseason.
Of course, ending conference title games would require leaving money on the table, not to mention unwinding complicated media and hosting contracts, so it’s a heavy lift.
The minor tweaks are fine, though, as long as the regular season continues to matter. That has to be the North Star. This committee maintained that by valuing Miami’s Week 1 victory over Notre Dame. Yes, it should have made that determination weeks earlier, but it’s never too late to do the right thing.
A playoff that gets so big where results don’t matter very much or, as the Big Ten proposal would have, where Michigan and Iowa are still alive via play-in rounds forever alters how the sport is played.
Better to have one or two bitter 10-2 teams out there at the end.
Better to have cries and screams and a little bit of infuriation.
Better to have those 13 people in a meeting room making a decision.
Because in this wonderfully chaotic and disorganized sport, the selection committee, to channel some Winston Churchill, might indeed be the worst system ever, except for all the others.
Terry Ryan is living out a hockey player’s dream. It’s just not the exact one he grew up dreaming.
One of the stars of the hit show “Shoresy,” the hockey-centered comedy that has acted as equal parts love letter to the sport and cultural tastemaker, Ryan will join his castmates (all of whom are also hockey players achieving various levels of success) on Dec. 10 at UBS Arena on Long Island as part of the Shoresy Fall Classic, a multistop tour across Canada and the United States where the cast plays games typically against the alumni of that NHL team.
“Aaron Asham is one of my best friends in the world. I played junior and pro with him,” Ryan said of the retired 15-year NHL veteran who played four seasons with the New York Islanders. “So I’m looking forward to that.”
The pace of play is higher than most people think heading in, the 48-year-old noted, adding “we’re not out there trying to hurt each other or anything, but it’s a step up from a regular shinny game.”
“It’s a very unique experience. I don’t know if I’ve ever come across anything like it whereby the fans are cheering for both teams,” he said. “Even though we lose — we’ve been losing most of the games — we’re not getting blown out, and I think people walk away with an appreciation that, you know, we’re all actors in the show, but we’re all hockey players. We’re a pretty good team. We hang in there.”
The event, which also includes a Q&A with the cast, was sparked by the massive popularity of the show, which will release its fifth season in Canada on Christmas Day and on Hulu in early 2026 (its parent show, “Letterkenny,” wrapped up with 12 seasons and 81 episodes).
As for Ryan, he was the No. 8 pick in the 1995 draft of the Montreal Canadiens, and achieved his dream of playing in the NHL — but played only eight games with the Habs. He then spent six seasons with different AHL teams after an ankle injury brought his NHL dreams to a halt.
The Newfoundland native continued to play in various leagues while pursuing another career — film and television. But not as an actor.
“I got an arts degree in folklore and English, and within that there’s a film studies certificate. I worked on a crew, I mean like location [scouting], production assistant, AD. I was like ‘jump how high’ for six years,” he said. “Then I spilled over, I did some stunts, and then because I have no tooth, I got to play some parts like, you know, British soldiers, crackheads, pimps, drug dealers, stuff like that. … My entrance into this world was a lot different than the other guys [on the Shoresy cast].”
Eventually, Ryan did cross paths with one Hollywood star, who took him under his wing.
“There’s a show on Netflix called ‘Frontier.’ I was on crew, I was waiting to get in the union. I met Jason Momoa. He came along with [producers] and gave me a chance,” Ryan said. “I had no tooth, Momoa said, ‘Keep the tooth out. I can get you some stunt gigs.’
“Five seconds into the show, I’m the very first face you see. It’s a British soldier begging for his life, and I’ve got no tooth obviously … they got me that role. That’s how I got in.”
Ryan and Momoa also shared a love for hockey. Ryan taught Momoa and members of the crew how to skate (in Momoa’s case, the finer points).
“I don’t know how many times we went out on the ice, maybe 100 times,” Ryan recalled.
Ryan also taught Momoa the intricacies of a hockey fight.
“When we first [fought], I just shook him and beat him in a fight,” Ryan said. “I said, ‘It’s all about balance, man. You can be as big as you want.’
“Anyway, he laughed … trust me, if he hit me with one, it wouldn’t matter. [Momoa] wanted to get in a hockey fight [in the second season of ‘Frontier’], so, like, I’m [wearing] the British red coat, and he pulls the thing over, and he simulates a hockey fight.”
Momoa helped Ryan get several stunt gigs and even hired Ryan as his assistant for a period of time. Eventually, “Letterkenny” called with the role of Ted Hitchcock, a lovable hockey player from Newfoundland with a penchant for “martoonies,” which led to “Shoresy.”
And now, the show and cast enjoy a level of success that allows them to play in hockey games against NHL players across North America, with thousands of people cheering them from the stands. In a very circuitous way, a version of Ryan’s hockey dreams did come true.
Jump ahead:
Games of the week
What I loved this weekend
Hart Trophy candidates
Social post of the week
Stick taps
Biggest games of the week
I’m getting into “watch every Colorado Avalanche game” territory. I saw them live for the first time this season at Madison Square Garden on Saturday, and it was incredibly fun. Nathan MacKinnon had a pair of goals, including a nasty backhand overtime winner under the crossbar that he made look absolutely effortless.
1:08
Nathan MacKinnon skates through Rangers defense to score dazzling OT winner
Nathan MacKinnon makes a sweet move and scores on the backhand to give the Avalanche an overtime win.
We’ve been focusing a lot on the lack of regulation losses for Denver’s team — only two so far this season. But we can now start keeping an eye on points in general, because the Avs are are currently on pace for 58 wins and 134 points this season.
That would be second-most points by any team in a season in NHL history, behind the 2022-23 Bruins (135).
If things keep rolling, the Avalanche have a chance to make history. They have build a solid foundation for it. They have the players. Could they do it?
Weeks in mid-December can sort of fly under the radar in the course of the regular season, but these are the ones where teams chasing history work in the shadows and build. The Avs visit the Nashville Predators on Tuesday, host the Florida Panthers on Thursday and then have the Preds at home Saturday. It could be a three-win week for the NHL’s premier team.
Other key games this week
Monday, 9 p.m. | ESPN+
Tuesday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+
Tuesday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+
Thursday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+
Thursday, 7 p.m. | ESPN
Thursday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+
Thursday, 8 p.m. | ESPN+
Saturday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+
Saturday, 8 p.m. | ESPN+
Sunday, 6 p.m. | ESPN+
What I loved this weekend
The Athletic’s Murat Ates wrote a story about the mental health journey of Winnipeg Jets forward Gabriel Vilardi. The story, which includes raw and honest reflection from Vilardi, is equal parts fascinating and emotional. This quote from Vilardi was particularly humbling and something that certainly many athletes probably go through during a game:
“For me, negative self-talk is not just panic attacks; it’s something that I deal with a lot. And it drags on. It starts with one play. Then it’s like, ‘Oh s—, I’ve got to make up for that play.’ Then it drags on to three shifts because you’re still thinking in your head that you’ve got to make up for it. Next thing you know, it’s a period and it’s like, ‘F—, I’ve only got two periods left.’ I was in my head the whole first period.”
Sports psychologist Dr. Alicia Naser — who works with NHL players such as Seattle Kraken forward Shane Wright and Calgary Flames center John Beecher along with other professional athletes — has helped to normalize the discussions, particular through her social media content, which includes bite-sized wisdom and actionable items related to mental health and performance that can benefit anyone watching or reading.
Hart Trophy contenders if the season ended today
Nathan MacKinnon times three. That’s it.
But really, MacKinnon obviously remains on the list. He’s currently on pace for 70 goals and 140 points this season; if he reaches those totals, he’d be the fifth player in NHL history to do it, joining Wayne Gretzky (who did it four times), Mario Lemieux (twice), Bernie Nicholls (1988-89) and Phil Esposito (1970-71). MacKinnon would also have the first 70-goal season since Teemu Selanne and Alexander Mogilny did it in 1992-93 (both with 76 goals).
As for the second contender, that goes to Connor McDavid. He pulled into second place in the points race, now six back of MacKinnon with 42; he also leads the league in assists (28).
Indeed, this might be the week it becomes a two-player race. For that reason, I’m giving one more nod in this section to both Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini, because one (or both) might be unseated as early as next week. I kind of hope I’m wrong though.
Social media post of the week
It definitely isn’t the 6-7 cam at MSG, or Sam Bennett taking part in the trend.
My choice this week is new hockey fan Big Z on TikTok. It feels as if every few years someone goes viral (at least in the hockey bubble) for finding out how exciting hockey is. It’s fun to live vicariously through someone who is experiencing the same joy we all once did as hockey fans.
Big Z’s joy over seeing Alex Ovechkin and Dustin Byfuglien deliver checks, or lamenting a Red Wings shootout loss (but still saying that he needs to buy a jersey), is fantastic.
Stick taps
The Washington Capitals have partnered with WWE to release a limited edition collab for John Cena’s final WWE match before he retires, taking place Saturday. The shirt features Cena wearing a Caps hat holding a towel in his iconic pose that reads “Let’s Go Caps.”
The time is now for an #ALLCAPS x @JohnCena collaboration in celebration of his final match!
Fans who purchase through the special link will receive the exclusive t-shirt and tickets to #CapsCanes this Thursday, Dec. 11.
🎟️ https://t.co/IzoZjSdSrq pic.twitter.com/iAkVHjBx12
— Washington Capitals (@Capitals) December 5, 2025
I’m all for more partnerships like this. City-specific merchandise is on the rise and often becomes a collector’s item. WWE also has championship belts specific to teams across multiple sports, including the NHL.
Sports
What Buster Olney, Jeff Passan are hearing about Schwarber’s suitors, top free agents and blockbuster trades
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Buster Olney
Close
Buster Olney
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior writer ESPN Magazine/ESPN.com
- Analyst/reporter ESPN television
- Author of “The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty”
MLB’s winter meetings begin Monday in Orlando, Florida, signaling the time when baseball’s offseason activity is likely to take off.
What’s the latest on free agent hitters, including coveted sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker? Will Framber Valdez find a new home now that fellow top free agent pitcher Dylan Cease is off the board? What’s the latest on a trade market featuring stars such as Ketel Marte and Steven Kwan? And which teams could surprise the sport by making a big splash in Florida?
Here is the latest intel Buster Olney and Jeff Passan are hearing on the players, teams and themes that will rule this year’s meetings.
Last year’s winter meetings were all about Juan Soto — is there one free agent or theme on everyone’s mind going into the meetings this year?
Olney: Some agents and execs are saying the money for free agents is generally locked down. There are outliers, of course — the Toronto Blue Jays are doing their thing, and the Pittsburgh Pirates, A’s and Miami Marlins are all angling for a We Are Trying posture.
The very elite guys, such as Kyle Schwarber, will get their money. But there are early indications that a lot of the teams that are traditionally aggressive might be more conservative this winter, perhaps because of the looming labor situation — and that could lead to more trades, rather than investments in free agents, as teams look to plug holes.
Passan: When does the Kyle Schwarber dam break? Several teams’ fortunes — from Philadelphia to Cincinnati to Pittsburgh to Boston to Baltimore to the New York Mets — depend on where Schwarber goes. The belief among teams is that it will take five years to secure the 32-year-old, and once that happens — perhaps sometime during the meetings — teams will start pivoting, and the action will pick up demonstrably.
Which top free agent hitter is most likely to sign during the winter meetings?
Olney: In recent winters, the Blue Jays wanted to spend big and couldn’t entice Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto to take their money. Now, some free agents could need Toronto, if some of the big-money teams pass on pricey moves. Kyle Tucker has been projected as a $400 million-plus player, but it might behoove him to move quickly if he gets an early, aggressive bid from the Jays (or some other team).
This is not a winter in which you want to be waiting for the big offers to materialize, as they did for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in past offseasons.
Passan: Schwarber is the best bet. Tucker isn’t close to done yet. Cody Bellinger has a healthy market but is biding his time. Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette are world-class infielders with ample, moneyed suitors. Pete Alonso‘s signing could go down after Schwarber.
What’s clear is that there’s a group of teams that will spend on a big bat (Phillies, Red Sox, Blue Jays), a number surveying multiple options (Yankees, Mets, Cubs) and a handful that would do so opportunistically (Orioles, Tigers, Reds, Pirates). Others could emerge depending on how the market plays out and what trade possibilities emerge.
Which other hitters could move quickly at the meetings?
Olney: Cedric Mullins‘ choice to sign for a one-year, $7 million, with the Tampa Bay Rays could be a warning sign for this free agent class. Mullins was not a perfect free agent by any measure, after his struggles with the Mets, but the rapidity with which he agreed to a deal could reflect the general feeling that this market could play out like a game of musical chairs — if you’ve got offers in hand, it’d be best to move fast and grab a spot (and money). Jorge Polanco could be among those who sign sooner rather than later — he’s coveted by the Mariners and some other teams. Harrison Bader set himself up well with a strong performance in Philadelphia.
Passan: If Schwarber goes early, everyone is in play. Otherwise, the second tier of hitters includes infielder Jorge Polanco, catcher J.T. Realmuto and Japanese corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto, and teams believe there could be momentum toward deals with them. Another popular hitter: infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who could return to Atlanta — which still needs a shortstop — on a shorter-term deal or seek longer-term security elsewhere.
Now that Dylan Cease has signed, which big-name aces could move next?
Olney: It depends on your definition of “big name.” Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, future Hall of Famers, will find landing spots, but they are on the downslopes of their remarkable careers; they can wait, and there is a presumption that Scherzer could pitch for his good friend, new San Francisco Giants manager Tony Vitello.
If you’re talking about the guys who will be getting paid the most, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez are next up, and there are clearly teams with which they could fit. The Mets need an ace; the Orioles need an ace. But the perceived expectations for Valdez’s next deal are high early in this offseason, evaluators say, and any team that bids on Suarez has to get comfortable with investing in a guy who doesn’t throw hard — which is not common in this era.
Passan: Teams in the mix for Suarez believe he’s the next big-time starter off the board. Though the 30-year-old won’t fetch a Dylan Cease-level deal, he long has been a target for Houston, which balks at deals beyond six years, and Baltimore, which is seeking a top-end rotation piece. Right-hander Michael King has widespread interest because of his frontline potential with a willingness to sign for a shorter term than the top starters. Also worth watching: right-hander Merrill Kelly, who at 37 is in line for a multiyear deal. Arguably the best starter in the class, Valdez is often among the league leaders in innings with a playoff résumé, and his market will unfold alongside the best hitters’.
Will we see a run of reliever signings following Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley getting deals?
Olney: Not necessarily, because there are so many relievers available — more than 100 unsigned free agents. Pete Fairbanks could be among the next to sign, and the 35-year-old Robert Suarez. Edwin Diaz‘s free agency is fascinating because he’s the best available pitcher in an offseason in which there are few teams seemingly prepared to invest a nine-figure contract on a short reliever. He has been linked to the Mets, of course, and the Blue Jays, but each of those teams has been filling other holes, so far.
Passan: The run on relievers is slowing slightly, though Fairbanks and Kyle Finnegan are the closers who could be had sooner than later. Tyler Rogers is primed to get a three-year deal, as is Brad Keller, who could transition to be a starter. Luke Weaver will get multiple years. The left-handed market is thin and led by Steven Matz, Caleb Ferguson, Taylor Rogers, Gregory Soto and Sean Newcomb. Diaz and Robert Suarez are the two best relievers left, and they are likely to wait for the larger market to shake out.
Which players will be mentioned most in winter meetings trade discussions?
Olney: It makes sense for teams that have trade candidates under team control into 2027 to weigh offers now because they might struggle to get proper value for those players next July, given the labor uncertainty after the season. That means players such as Mackenzie Gore of the Nationals — and Paul Toboni, Washington’s president of baseball operations, said in a “Baseball Tonight” podcast interview Wednesday that he has talked with Gore about hearing his name in trade rumors — and Kwan of the Guardians.
Interestingly, other teams report that the Twins haven’t been pushing Joe Ryan in trade discussions. Maybe that’s because they don’t have to, or, in the opinion of some evaluators, Minnesota could prefer to keep Ryan. The Diamondbacks told interested teams in July that they wouldn’t trade Marte, but their posture now is very different; they have to improve their rotation, and the quickest way to do that would be to swap Marte.
Passan: Multiple executives see a flurry of potential trades, headlined by Marte, Arizona’s All-Star second baseman. The Diamondbacks aren’t clamoring to move him. They also know that with five very affordable years under contract, Marte is among the most valuable players in baseball, thanks to his combination of productivity and cost. Another second baseman teams are considering: Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe.
Miami is almost certain to move a starting pitcher this winter, and Edward Cabrera has generated the most interest. Boston has been discussing its outfield surplus with multiple teams. Pittsburgh wants to trade a starter for a hitter. The Brendan Donovan market remains conflagrant, as St. Louis considers whether its rebuild will include him or the hefty return he would fetch.
Which is one surprise team to watch at the winter meetings?
Olney: We aren’t accustomed to seeing the Pirates, Marlins or A’s among the most aggressive teams, but they seem to be like college freshmen holding credit cards for the first time — some agents think they’ll add something in the range of $25 million to $30 million in payroll, either in salaries acquired through trades or in free agency.
Passan: After getting Helsley in free agency and Taylor Ward in a trade, the Orioles are looking to land a big player — and though the priority is pitching, they’re not against targeting a hitter, either. The Los Angeles Angels, whose last major free agent signing for more than $65 million was Anthony Rendon in December 2019, are still looking to bolster their rotation after trading for Grayson Rodriguez and signing Alek Manoah.
What else are you hearing that will shape the winter meetings?
Olney: The juiciest rumor I heard this week was the notion that the Mets could push the Phillies for Schwarber, and there are a lot of reasons this could make sense. Beyond Schwarber’s power and on-base capability — can you imagine pitchers working to get through Schwarber and Soto in the same inning? — he is known as someone who works to pull players together. And hell, even if the Mets don’t believe they can beat the Phillies in the bidding for the slugger, they could push Philadelphia’s cost by being involved, as the Braves did with Aaron Nola two winters ago.
There’s a lot of talk among teams about Murakami, the free agent corner infielder who is making his way from Japan — and skepticism, in some front offices, about how his skill set will play in the big leagues, given his big swing-and-miss profile and the perception that his defense could be a problem. But all he needs in this bidding is for one team (or more) to fall in love with his big-time power.
Passan: If Schwarber signs and unclogs the market, expect others to fall — either toward the end of the meetings or in the weeks leading up to Christmas. Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai could wind up with a big-market team on the East Coast, and the New York Yankees — with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon expected to miss the start of the season — New York Mets and Philadelphia are reasonable landing spots. All three have interest in Bellinger, too. Another Japanese star, Munetaka Murakami, is more likely to sign in the period between the meetings and holidays. With the paucity of center fielders in free agency and on the trade market, Bader has a healthy market.
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