Week 10 preview: Why Georgia’s matchup with Florida just means more, plus key matchups
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The Week 10 slate offers both a glimpse of this season’s true powers and more than a few reminders of just how wrong we might have been in predicting who those powers would be way back in August.
Start with the Cocktail Party, where Georgia looks like a true playoff contender, but some luster is off this rivalry game, as Florida has struggled through a difficult first half and now will play its first game after firing head coach Billy Napier.
Move to the Big Ten, and what looked like perhaps the game of the year before the season kicked off now appears to be yet another speed bump on Ohio State’s road to the conference title game. Penn State fired James Franklin after a dismal three-game losing streak, and quarterback Drew Allar is out for the season. So much for a playoff-caliber showdown. The Buckeyes are favored by three touchdowns.
Remember when SMU, Texas and South Carolina were all ranked inside the top 16 teams in the preseason? That feels like a different era now. The Mustangs are fresh off a devastating last-second loss to Wake Forest and now find their ACC title hopes on life support. Texas has gone to overtime in back-to-back weeks against teams that combined have won only one SEC game in the past two years. Another loss for the Longhorns against Vanderbilt probably would be the end of playoff hopes. And South Carolina, on the brink of the playoff a year ago after a magical second-half run, isn’t likely to rekindle that same excitement this November. Last week’s blown lead to Alabama was just the latest in a string of disappointments, and a loss Saturday to Ole Miss almost feels like a foregone conclusion.
But if Week 10 provides a difficult look back at all the ways those preseason prognostications went wrong, it also serves as a reminder of how much joy can be found in the season’s surprises, from Vandy getting its shot at another top-25 win to Virginia trying to keep its playoff hopes alive at Cal to Cincinnati aiming to cement its spot atop the Big 12 standings with a massive trip to Utah. — David Hale
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Gunner Stockton | Oklahoma-Tennessee
ACC title race | Quotes of the week

Georgia’s Gunner Stockton playing for more than a win vs. Florida
Even with a potential SEC title and College Football Playoff appearance on the line, Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton might have more motivation to beat rival Florida at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida, on Saturday.
Gunner’s grandfather, Lawrence Stockton, died of a heart attack in a parking lot outside of the stadium following the Bulldogs’ 34-31 loss to the Gators on Oct. 30, 2010. It was the only game to go into overtime in the 103-year history of the border rivalry.
“He had a heart attack there at the stadium,” Gunner Stockton told ESPN. “Every time we go to Florida, I really want to beat them bad in Jacksonville.”
Fifteen years ago, the Bulldogs trailed 21-7 at the half, but rallied and tied the score at 31 on Aaron Murray’s 15-yard touchdown to A.J. Green with about 4½ minutes to go in regulation.
Murray’s pass was intercepted in overtime, and the Gators won on a 37-yard field goal by Chas Henry to beat the Bulldogs for the 18th time in the previous 21 meetings.
Lawrence Stockton, who graduated from the UGA School of Pharmacy, was talking to a friend about the game when he died. He was 63.
“He said something about [then-Bulldogs defensive coordinator] Todd Grantham and collapsed,” said Suzanne Frederickson, Lawrence Stockton’s widow.
Lawrence Stockton spent much of his free time hunting and fishing with Gunner in the north Georgia mountains.
“He lived on the lake, and he always treated us so good and spoiled the grandkids,” Gunner said. “He was just a great granddad.”
Gunner once trapped and released gators with then-Bulldogs safety Dan Jackson and a licensed nuisance hunter in Macon, Georgia, as well as with his uncle, Allyn, in Florida.
On Saturday, he’ll try to bag the Gators for the first time as Georgia’s starting quarterback.
Georgia has defeated Florida in seven of the past eight games, winning by two touchdowns or more in its current four-game winning streak against the Gators.
In his first season as the Bulldogs’ full-time starter, Stockton has completed 70.5% of his passes for 1,553 yards with 10 touchdowns and one interception, while running for 279 yards with seven scores.
Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart has been impressed by his quarterback’s decision-making as much as anything.
“I want to see him continue to grow, take what the defense gives him, understand what we’re trying to do,” Smart said. “We give Gunner a lot of latitude and options, in terms of the playcall. It’s more about putting us in the right play to be successful based on what they’re in defensively. I don’t think he gets enough credit for that decision-making process.”
Gators interim coach Billy Gonzales, who was promoted after Florida fired Billy Napier on Oct. 19, said his team’s defense will have to pressure Stockton.
“The main thing for us is to hopefully be able to cause some pressure to him, and to cause pressure means being able to cover in the back end, as well,” Gonzales said. — Mark Schlabach
What do Oklahoma and Tennessee need to capitalize on to win?
Oklahoma: October losses to Texas and Ole Miss mean No. 18 Oklahoma must win at least one of its next two games — at Tennessee on Saturday and a Nov. 15 trip to Alabama — to maintain even a semblance of a place in the playoff hunt.
The central story of the Sooners’ stumble over the past month has been quarterback John Mateer, an early-season Heisman Trophy hopeful who has struggled since returning from surgery on his right (throwing) hand against Texas on Oct. 11. Mateer threw a career-high three interceptions and completed a season-low 52.6% of his passes in a Week 7 loss to the Longhorns, and his accuracy dipped again in Oklahoma’s 34-26 loss to Ole Miss last weekend.
“It’s definitely not my thumb, I’ll tell you that. I’ll stand by that. My thumb is perfectly fine,” Mateer said Monday. “… I’m still confident in what I’m looking at. It’s just a couple [throws] that I missed and that happens. It just happened to be a bad time.”
The good news for Mateer and the Sooners in Week 10? A critical rebound game at Neyland Stadium comes against a Tennessee secondary that ranks 124th nationally in pass defense and allowed Kentucky redshirt freshman quarterback Cutter Boley to set career highs in passing yards (330) and touchdowns (5) a week ago. If Oklahoma’s teetering offensive line can protect the pocket against the SEC’s fourth-best pass rush (27 sacks), Mateer & Co. should have the platform to bounce back in a big way this weekend. Even a little bit of juice from the nation’s 99th-ranked rushing attack (130.1 yards per game) wouldn’t hurt the Sooners, either. — Eli Lederman
Tennessee: After falling to Georgia and Alabama, the No. 14 Volunteers probably have no margin for error if they’re going to return to the CFP for the second straight season.
To knock off the No. 18 Sooners, Tennessee’s defense is going to have to perform better than it did in last week’s 56-34 victory at Kentucky.
The Wildcats piled up 476 yards of offense and controlled the ball for more than 36 minutes. Quarterback Cutter Boley threw for 330 yards with five touchdowns and one interception.
Tennessee should have a good chance to get pressure on Sooners quarterback John Mateer, who hasn’t played as well since returning from a broken bone in his throwing hand on Oct. 11. In the past three games, Mateer has completed 57.9% of his passes with two touchdowns and three interceptions.
The Sooners have given up nine sacks in the past three games. The Volunteers rank seventh in the FBS with 3.4 sacks per game.
“The quarterback is a playmaker,” Vols coach Josh Heupel said. “He extends plays when the initial reads aren’t there and does a great job on scrambles, keeping the play alive, throwing it down the field and using his feet when it’s not. Everything’s matched up, so you got to apply pressure to him, but you got to try to find a way to keep him bottled up, too.” — Schlabach
How could Miami-SMU affect the ACC title race?
Two weeks ago, Saturday’s showdown between Miami and SMU might’ve been one of the marquee events of the season, a matchup between arguably the ACC’s most talented team (the Hurricanes) and the one on the longest regular-season winning streak (the Mustangs). Instead, after Louisville scored an upset win over Miami and SMU fell in dramatic fashion to Wake Forest, Saturday’s matchup has morphed into what might be an elimination game for both teams.
In the crowded ACC race, Georgia Tech and Virginia are still undefeated. Pitt, Duke and Louisville all have one loss in conference play, alongside Miami and SMU. Whichever school lands loss No. 2 will be relegated to the back of the pack and almost certainly out of contention for the ACC title game, barring the type of chaos that used to be reserved for the ACC’s Coastal Division.
The key for both teams Saturday will be establishing the ground game. In Saturday’s loss to Wake Forest, SMU mustered only 75 yards rushing, led by Chris Johnson Jr.’s 29 yards. The Mustangs are still trying to find an adequate replacement for all the production they received from Brashard Smith a year ago, and while it’s unlikely anyone emerges as a true workhorse, Johnson has the potential to be a consistent threat.
“He hasn’t played a lot of running back, and he’s probably 10 pounds lighter than he needs to be to be an every down back,” head coach Rhett Lashlee said. “But we’ve seen the explosiveness he can provide, and hopefully he and [T.J. Harden] can be a good 1-2 punch and we can get a little more consistency out of the run game to take a little bit of pressure off of us. That’s what we’ve been lacking.”
For Miami, last week’s win over Stanford was a revelation for the power run game. Mark Fletcher Jr. led the way as the Canes rushed for 199 yards and five touchdowns. Far too often this season, Miami has been running into a loaded box. The emergence of Tony Johnson as a deep threat (three catches, 69 yards vs. Stanford) might help open up things more for Fletcher & Co. moving forward. — Hale
Quotes of the week
1:29
Lane Kiffin trolls Brent Venables’ ‘hot take’ after Ole Miss’ win over OU
Lane Kiffin snaps back at Brent Venables after the Oklahoma coach said the Sooners were the better team after Ole Miss’ win.
“I started off as a junior high coach at Edna Karr that became a high school assistant that became a 26-year-old head coach … so I’m a part of the fiber of this state, of an earnest high school football, youth football, that is extremely humbled, extremely honored to be given this opportunity,” LSU interim head coach Frank Wilson said. “It’s something that you would dream of. Something that you don’t know if it would ever come true. But something you prepare yourself for.”
“I know [they have] high expectations. I coached at LSU,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said on LSU’s decision to fire coach Brian Kelly. “A guy once told me, ‘That office you’re in, that’s not your office. You’re borrowing it.’ I knew right then that if you didn’t win, you wouldn’t be there long.”
“I think our crowd at home is a distinct advantage,” Nebraska coach Matt Rhule said ahead of Saturday’s prime-time visit from USC. “Not to steal it from [Texas] A&M, but it’s a true 12th man. We’re Nebraska nice — I get all that. But let’s have a real game-day environment.”
“That’s an interesting take,” Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said, responding to Oklahoma’s Brent Venables calling the Sooners “the better team” in the Rebels’ 34-26 win in Week 9. ” … I wouldn’t have thought that people watching would say that.”
“My health is not going to increase sitting on the lake fishing. My health is not going to increase sitting at my property in Texas, having a good time or sitting back, drinking some sweet iced teas and eating some honey buns and watching television,” Colorado coach Deion Sanders said on his health concerns and questions about his future. “I’m not damaging or putting my health at risk by doing what I’m doing. Matter of fact, it’s enhancing my health, doing the things I do.”
Former LSU coach Ed Orgeron on his interest in LSU’s head coach opening: “Are you kidding me? Hey, I’m one phone call away. I just gotta get in my truck; I could be there today.”
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Sports
Wetzel: A defense of the CFP committee? It’s not perfect, but nothing in this sport can be
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December 8, 2025By
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Dan WetzelDec 8, 2025, 07:40 AM ET
Close- Dan Wetzel is a senior writer focused on investigative reporting, news analysis and feature storytelling.
The purpose of the College Football Playoff selection committee is to sort through the unsortable — deciding between two teams of similar accomplishment.
This sport is a spectacular mess, of course, famously and belovedly so. The FBS level has 136 teams playing 12 regular-season games competing for one championship. The schedules are disparate, even within the current oversize “conferences.”
No one would design such a thing. Big schools. Small schools. State schools. Religious institutions. Even three military academies. From L.A. (Los Angeles) to L.A. (Lower Alabama). It’s glorious.
If a proper computer formula exists to figure out who should or shouldn’t be in a playoff, none has earned the trust of the sport. College football, after all, ain’t much for college.
So, it has a selection committee — 13 people who make the final, difficult, no-truly-correct-answer call. Their thanks comes from a barrage of hate courtesy of whomever they didn’t choose.
That there is controversy, hard feelings and anger doesn’t mean the system isn’t working.
It’s a sign that it is.
A sport that used to leave unbeaten teams out of the title game is now arguing about 10-2 and 9-3 clubs. A postseason that was once a collection of mostly meaningless exhibition bowl games designed as tourism campaigns is now anchored by a 12-team, 11-game free-for-all.
At least half a dozen teams must believe they can actually win the national title. Maybe more. Four playoff games will be staged on campuses, not at antiseptic NFL stadiums. The title will be settled on the field. This is the good stuff.
It’s why everyone needs to exhale for a moment.
Don’t let the pursuit of (unachievable) perfection get in the way of progress. This is always going to be an imperfect operation.
Would it be better if the ACC’s tiebreaker system didn’t malfunction and both Miami (as ACC champ) and Notre Dame (as an at-large selection) were in the field? Of course. But the presence of James Madison and some Fighting Irish disappointment shouldn’t cause anyone to take a wrecking ball to this entire enterprise.
College athletics is famous for knee-jerk decisions that it comes to regret. It too often makes policy via emotional swings and selfish reasoning without vision for the future.
Leagues get blown up (or expanded) for basic cable subscriptions (which are already dwindling). Legal cases are waged on the idea NIL will decrease competitive balance (Indiana is currently ranked No. 1). Congress is lobbied with hysterics that the sport needs “saving” (all while interest, revenue and television ratings rise).
The latest overreaction is to kill off this 2-year-old playoff for a bigger model that will supposedly be controversy-free (impossible) — one with 24 teams, at least, or with four automatic bids to certain conferences or who knows what else.
The committee is the punching bag. Subjectivity is the wedge issue. Conspiracies are everywhere. Emotions are running hot.
Look, there is one sure way for major programs to get into this thing: win your conference. If not, then you get into the knife fight that is the at-large selection process. Anything can happen. Criteria can shift. Decisions can seem unfair or arbitrary.
If, like Notre Dame, you find more overall value in independence, then this is your trade-off. It isn’t going to work as you wish every time.
Are there improvements and tweaks that can be made? Of course.
The committee should no longer release weekly rankings during the back half of the season. A single verdict should come out at the end. The current setup is good for content (including here at ESPN, which broadcasts the weekly rankings), but it undermines the credibility of the process. The week-to-week contradictions are maddening and, even worse, can box in the committee’s final decision.
Bloated leagues could return to divisions in an effort to create scheduling structure or find other ways to fix tiebreakers (ahem, ACC).
Two rounds of home games would increase the importance of seeding and bring more campuses and local communities into the fold. That would serve fans and families rather than bowl directors.
Conference championship weekend could even be eliminated altogether; if Alabama can get beaten soundly and not drop, then was it even a real game? (And yes, BYU, we see you.) That would move the playoff up a week and allow for the semifinals on New Year’s Day and a title game in early January rather than during the heart of the NFL postseason.
Of course, ending conference title games would require leaving money on the table, not to mention unwinding complicated media and hosting contracts, so it’s a heavy lift.
The minor tweaks are fine, though, as long as the regular season continues to matter. That has to be the North Star. This committee maintained that by valuing Miami’s Week 1 victory over Notre Dame. Yes, it should have made that determination weeks earlier, but it’s never too late to do the right thing.
A playoff that gets so big where results don’t matter very much or, as the Big Ten proposal would have, where Michigan and Iowa are still alive via play-in rounds forever alters how the sport is played.
Better to have one or two bitter 10-2 teams out there at the end.
Better to have cries and screams and a little bit of infuriation.
Better to have those 13 people in a meeting room making a decision.
Because in this wonderfully chaotic and disorganized sport, the selection committee, to channel some Winston Churchill, might indeed be the worst system ever, except for all the others.
Sports
The NHL’s best this week: Terry Ryan and hockey dreams
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December 8, 2025By
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Terry Ryan is living out a hockey player’s dream. It’s just not the exact one he grew up dreaming.
One of the stars of the hit show “Shoresy,” the hockey-centered comedy that has acted as equal parts love letter to the sport and cultural tastemaker, Ryan will join his castmates (all of whom are also hockey players achieving various levels of success) on Dec. 10 at UBS Arena on Long Island as part of the Shoresy Fall Classic, a multistop tour across Canada and the United States where the cast plays games typically against the alumni of that NHL team.
“Aaron Asham is one of my best friends in the world. I played junior and pro with him,” Ryan said of the retired 15-year NHL veteran who played four seasons with the New York Islanders. “So I’m looking forward to that.”
The pace of play is higher than most people think heading in, the 48-year-old noted, adding “we’re not out there trying to hurt each other or anything, but it’s a step up from a regular shinny game.”
“It’s a very unique experience. I don’t know if I’ve ever come across anything like it whereby the fans are cheering for both teams,” he said. “Even though we lose — we’ve been losing most of the games — we’re not getting blown out, and I think people walk away with an appreciation that, you know, we’re all actors in the show, but we’re all hockey players. We’re a pretty good team. We hang in there.”
The event, which also includes a Q&A with the cast, was sparked by the massive popularity of the show, which will release its fifth season in Canada on Christmas Day and on Hulu in early 2026 (its parent show, “Letterkenny,” wrapped up with 12 seasons and 81 episodes).
As for Ryan, he was the No. 8 pick in the 1995 draft of the Montreal Canadiens, and achieved his dream of playing in the NHL — but played only eight games with the Habs. He then spent six seasons with different AHL teams after an ankle injury brought his NHL dreams to a halt.
The Newfoundland native continued to play in various leagues while pursuing another career — film and television. But not as an actor.
“I got an arts degree in folklore and English, and within that there’s a film studies certificate. I worked on a crew, I mean like location [scouting], production assistant, AD. I was like ‘jump how high’ for six years,” he said. “Then I spilled over, I did some stunts, and then because I have no tooth, I got to play some parts like, you know, British soldiers, crackheads, pimps, drug dealers, stuff like that. … My entrance into this world was a lot different than the other guys [on the Shoresy cast].”
Eventually, Ryan did cross paths with one Hollywood star, who took him under his wing.
“There’s a show on Netflix called ‘Frontier.’ I was on crew, I was waiting to get in the union. I met Jason Momoa. He came along with [producers] and gave me a chance,” Ryan said. “I had no tooth, Momoa said, ‘Keep the tooth out. I can get you some stunt gigs.’
“Five seconds into the show, I’m the very first face you see. It’s a British soldier begging for his life, and I’ve got no tooth obviously … they got me that role. That’s how I got in.”
Ryan and Momoa also shared a love for hockey. Ryan taught Momoa and members of the crew how to skate (in Momoa’s case, the finer points).
“I don’t know how many times we went out on the ice, maybe 100 times,” Ryan recalled.
Ryan also taught Momoa the intricacies of a hockey fight.
“When we first [fought], I just shook him and beat him in a fight,” Ryan said. “I said, ‘It’s all about balance, man. You can be as big as you want.’
“Anyway, he laughed … trust me, if he hit me with one, it wouldn’t matter. [Momoa] wanted to get in a hockey fight [in the second season of ‘Frontier’], so, like, I’m [wearing] the British red coat, and he pulls the thing over, and he simulates a hockey fight.”
Momoa helped Ryan get several stunt gigs and even hired Ryan as his assistant for a period of time. Eventually, “Letterkenny” called with the role of Ted Hitchcock, a lovable hockey player from Newfoundland with a penchant for “martoonies,” which led to “Shoresy.”
And now, the show and cast enjoy a level of success that allows them to play in hockey games against NHL players across North America, with thousands of people cheering them from the stands. In a very circuitous way, a version of Ryan’s hockey dreams did come true.
Jump ahead:
Games of the week
What I loved this weekend
Hart Trophy candidates
Social post of the week
Stick taps

Biggest games of the week

I’m getting into “watch every Colorado Avalanche game” territory. I saw them live for the first time this season at Madison Square Garden on Saturday, and it was incredibly fun. Nathan MacKinnon had a pair of goals, including a nasty backhand overtime winner under the crossbar that he made look absolutely effortless.
1:08
Nathan MacKinnon skates through Rangers defense to score dazzling OT winner
Nathan MacKinnon makes a sweet move and scores on the backhand to give the Avalanche an overtime win.
We’ve been focusing a lot on the lack of regulation losses for Denver’s team — only two so far this season. But we can now start keeping an eye on points in general, because the Avs are are currently on pace for 58 wins and 134 points this season.
That would be second-most points by any team in a season in NHL history, behind the 2022-23 Bruins (135).
If things keep rolling, the Avalanche have a chance to make history. They have build a solid foundation for it. They have the players. Could they do it?
Weeks in mid-December can sort of fly under the radar in the course of the regular season, but these are the ones where teams chasing history work in the shadows and build. The Avs visit the Nashville Predators on Tuesday, host the Florida Panthers on Thursday and then have the Preds at home Saturday. It could be a three-win week for the NHL’s premier team.
Other key games this week


Monday, 9 p.m. | ESPN+


Tuesday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Tuesday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Thursday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Thursday, 7 p.m. | ESPN


Thursday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Thursday, 8 p.m. | ESPN+


Saturday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Saturday, 8 p.m. | ESPN+


Sunday, 6 p.m. | ESPN+
What I loved this weekend
The Athletic’s Murat Ates wrote a story about the mental health journey of Winnipeg Jets forward Gabriel Vilardi. The story, which includes raw and honest reflection from Vilardi, is equal parts fascinating and emotional. This quote from Vilardi was particularly humbling and something that certainly many athletes probably go through during a game:
“For me, negative self-talk is not just panic attacks; it’s something that I deal with a lot. And it drags on. It starts with one play. Then it’s like, ‘Oh s—, I’ve got to make up for that play.’ Then it drags on to three shifts because you’re still thinking in your head that you’ve got to make up for it. Next thing you know, it’s a period and it’s like, ‘F—, I’ve only got two periods left.’ I was in my head the whole first period.”
Sports psychologist Dr. Alicia Naser — who works with NHL players such as Seattle Kraken forward Shane Wright and Calgary Flames center John Beecher along with other professional athletes — has helped to normalize the discussions, particular through her social media content, which includes bite-sized wisdom and actionable items related to mental health and performance that can benefit anyone watching or reading.
Hart Trophy contenders if the season ended today
Nathan MacKinnon times three. That’s it.
But really, MacKinnon obviously remains on the list. He’s currently on pace for 70 goals and 140 points this season; if he reaches those totals, he’d be the fifth player in NHL history to do it, joining Wayne Gretzky (who did it four times), Mario Lemieux (twice), Bernie Nicholls (1988-89) and Phil Esposito (1970-71). MacKinnon would also have the first 70-goal season since Teemu Selanne and Alexander Mogilny did it in 1992-93 (both with 76 goals).
As for the second contender, that goes to Connor McDavid. He pulled into second place in the points race, now six back of MacKinnon with 42; he also leads the league in assists (28).
Indeed, this might be the week it becomes a two-player race. For that reason, I’m giving one more nod in this section to both Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini, because one (or both) might be unseated as early as next week. I kind of hope I’m wrong though.
Social media post of the week
It definitely isn’t the 6-7 cam at MSG, or Sam Bennett taking part in the trend.
My choice this week is new hockey fan Big Z on TikTok. It feels as if every few years someone goes viral (at least in the hockey bubble) for finding out how exciting hockey is. It’s fun to live vicariously through someone who is experiencing the same joy we all once did as hockey fans.
Big Z’s joy over seeing Alex Ovechkin and Dustin Byfuglien deliver checks, or lamenting a Red Wings shootout loss (but still saying that he needs to buy a jersey), is fantastic.
Stick taps
The Washington Capitals have partnered with WWE to release a limited edition collab for John Cena’s final WWE match before he retires, taking place Saturday. The shirt features Cena wearing a Caps hat holding a towel in his iconic pose that reads “Let’s Go Caps.”
The time is now for an #ALLCAPS x @JohnCena collaboration in celebration of his final match!
Fans who purchase through the special link will receive the exclusive t-shirt and tickets to #CapsCanes this Thursday, Dec. 11.
🎟️ https://t.co/IzoZjSdSrq pic.twitter.com/iAkVHjBx12
— Washington Capitals (@Capitals) December 5, 2025
I’m all for more partnerships like this. City-specific merchandise is on the rise and often becomes a collector’s item. WWE also has championship belts specific to teams across multiple sports, including the NHL.
Sports
What Buster Olney, Jeff Passan are hearing about Schwarber’s suitors, top free agents and blockbuster trades
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December 8, 2025By
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Buster Olney
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Buster Olney
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior writer ESPN Magazine/ESPN.com
- Analyst/reporter ESPN television
- Author of “The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty”
Dec 5, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
MLB’s winter meetings begin Monday in Orlando, Florida, signaling the time when baseball’s offseason activity is likely to take off.
What’s the latest on free agent hitters, including coveted sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker? Will Framber Valdez find a new home now that fellow top free agent pitcher Dylan Cease is off the board? What’s the latest on a trade market featuring stars such as Ketel Marte and Steven Kwan? And which teams could surprise the sport by making a big splash in Florida?
Here is the latest intel Buster Olney and Jeff Passan are hearing on the players, teams and themes that will rule this year’s meetings.
Last year’s winter meetings were all about Juan Soto — is there one free agent or theme on everyone’s mind going into the meetings this year?
Olney: Some agents and execs are saying the money for free agents is generally locked down. There are outliers, of course — the Toronto Blue Jays are doing their thing, and the Pittsburgh Pirates, A’s and Miami Marlins are all angling for a We Are Trying posture.
The very elite guys, such as Kyle Schwarber, will get their money. But there are early indications that a lot of the teams that are traditionally aggressive might be more conservative this winter, perhaps because of the looming labor situation — and that could lead to more trades, rather than investments in free agents, as teams look to plug holes.
Passan: When does the Kyle Schwarber dam break? Several teams’ fortunes — from Philadelphia to Cincinnati to Pittsburgh to Boston to Baltimore to the New York Mets — depend on where Schwarber goes. The belief among teams is that it will take five years to secure the 32-year-old, and once that happens — perhaps sometime during the meetings — teams will start pivoting, and the action will pick up demonstrably.
Which top free agent hitter is most likely to sign during the winter meetings?
Olney: In recent winters, the Blue Jays wanted to spend big and couldn’t entice Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto to take their money. Now, some free agents could need Toronto, if some of the big-money teams pass on pricey moves. Kyle Tucker has been projected as a $400 million-plus player, but it might behoove him to move quickly if he gets an early, aggressive bid from the Jays (or some other team).
This is not a winter in which you want to be waiting for the big offers to materialize, as they did for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in past offseasons.
Passan: Schwarber is the best bet. Tucker isn’t close to done yet. Cody Bellinger has a healthy market but is biding his time. Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette are world-class infielders with ample, moneyed suitors. Pete Alonso‘s signing could go down after Schwarber.
What’s clear is that there’s a group of teams that will spend on a big bat (Phillies, Red Sox, Blue Jays), a number surveying multiple options (Yankees, Mets, Cubs) and a handful that would do so opportunistically (Orioles, Tigers, Reds, Pirates). Others could emerge depending on how the market plays out and what trade possibilities emerge.
Which other hitters could move quickly at the meetings?
Olney: Cedric Mullins‘ choice to sign for a one-year, $7 million, with the Tampa Bay Rays could be a warning sign for this free agent class. Mullins was not a perfect free agent by any measure, after his struggles with the Mets, but the rapidity with which he agreed to a deal could reflect the general feeling that this market could play out like a game of musical chairs — if you’ve got offers in hand, it’d be best to move fast and grab a spot (and money). Jorge Polanco could be among those who sign sooner rather than later — he’s coveted by the Mariners and some other teams. Harrison Bader set himself up well with a strong performance in Philadelphia.
Passan: If Schwarber goes early, everyone is in play. Otherwise, the second tier of hitters includes infielder Jorge Polanco, catcher J.T. Realmuto and Japanese corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto, and teams believe there could be momentum toward deals with them. Another popular hitter: infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who could return to Atlanta — which still needs a shortstop — on a shorter-term deal or seek longer-term security elsewhere.
Now that Dylan Cease has signed, which big-name aces could move next?
Olney: It depends on your definition of “big name.” Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, future Hall of Famers, will find landing spots, but they are on the downslopes of their remarkable careers; they can wait, and there is a presumption that Scherzer could pitch for his good friend, new San Francisco Giants manager Tony Vitello.
If you’re talking about the guys who will be getting paid the most, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez are next up, and there are clearly teams with which they could fit. The Mets need an ace; the Orioles need an ace. But the perceived expectations for Valdez’s next deal are high early in this offseason, evaluators say, and any team that bids on Suarez has to get comfortable with investing in a guy who doesn’t throw hard — which is not common in this era.
Passan: Teams in the mix for Suarez believe he’s the next big-time starter off the board. Though the 30-year-old won’t fetch a Dylan Cease-level deal, he long has been a target for Houston, which balks at deals beyond six years, and Baltimore, which is seeking a top-end rotation piece. Right-hander Michael King has widespread interest because of his frontline potential with a willingness to sign for a shorter term than the top starters. Also worth watching: right-hander Merrill Kelly, who at 37 is in line for a multiyear deal. Arguably the best starter in the class, Valdez is often among the league leaders in innings with a playoff résumé, and his market will unfold alongside the best hitters’.
Will we see a run of reliever signings following Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley getting deals?
Olney: Not necessarily, because there are so many relievers available — more than 100 unsigned free agents. Pete Fairbanks could be among the next to sign, and the 35-year-old Robert Suarez. Edwin Diaz‘s free agency is fascinating because he’s the best available pitcher in an offseason in which there are few teams seemingly prepared to invest a nine-figure contract on a short reliever. He has been linked to the Mets, of course, and the Blue Jays, but each of those teams has been filling other holes, so far.
Passan: The run on relievers is slowing slightly, though Fairbanks and Kyle Finnegan are the closers who could be had sooner than later. Tyler Rogers is primed to get a three-year deal, as is Brad Keller, who could transition to be a starter. Luke Weaver will get multiple years. The left-handed market is thin and led by Steven Matz, Caleb Ferguson, Taylor Rogers, Gregory Soto and Sean Newcomb. Diaz and Robert Suarez are the two best relievers left, and they are likely to wait for the larger market to shake out.
Which players will be mentioned most in winter meetings trade discussions?
Olney: It makes sense for teams that have trade candidates under team control into 2027 to weigh offers now because they might struggle to get proper value for those players next July, given the labor uncertainty after the season. That means players such as Mackenzie Gore of the Nationals — and Paul Toboni, Washington’s president of baseball operations, said in a “Baseball Tonight” podcast interview Wednesday that he has talked with Gore about hearing his name in trade rumors — and Kwan of the Guardians.
Interestingly, other teams report that the Twins haven’t been pushing Joe Ryan in trade discussions. Maybe that’s because they don’t have to, or, in the opinion of some evaluators, Minnesota could prefer to keep Ryan. The Diamondbacks told interested teams in July that they wouldn’t trade Marte, but their posture now is very different; they have to improve their rotation, and the quickest way to do that would be to swap Marte.
Passan: Multiple executives see a flurry of potential trades, headlined by Marte, Arizona’s All-Star second baseman. The Diamondbacks aren’t clamoring to move him. They also know that with five very affordable years under contract, Marte is among the most valuable players in baseball, thanks to his combination of productivity and cost. Another second baseman teams are considering: Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe.
Miami is almost certain to move a starting pitcher this winter, and Edward Cabrera has generated the most interest. Boston has been discussing its outfield surplus with multiple teams. Pittsburgh wants to trade a starter for a hitter. The Brendan Donovan market remains conflagrant, as St. Louis considers whether its rebuild will include him or the hefty return he would fetch.
Which is one surprise team to watch at the winter meetings?
Olney: We aren’t accustomed to seeing the Pirates, Marlins or A’s among the most aggressive teams, but they seem to be like college freshmen holding credit cards for the first time — some agents think they’ll add something in the range of $25 million to $30 million in payroll, either in salaries acquired through trades or in free agency.
Passan: After getting Helsley in free agency and Taylor Ward in a trade, the Orioles are looking to land a big player — and though the priority is pitching, they’re not against targeting a hitter, either. The Los Angeles Angels, whose last major free agent signing for more than $65 million was Anthony Rendon in December 2019, are still looking to bolster their rotation after trading for Grayson Rodriguez and signing Alek Manoah.
What else are you hearing that will shape the winter meetings?
Olney: The juiciest rumor I heard this week was the notion that the Mets could push the Phillies for Schwarber, and there are a lot of reasons this could make sense. Beyond Schwarber’s power and on-base capability — can you imagine pitchers working to get through Schwarber and Soto in the same inning? — he is known as someone who works to pull players together. And hell, even if the Mets don’t believe they can beat the Phillies in the bidding for the slugger, they could push Philadelphia’s cost by being involved, as the Braves did with Aaron Nola two winters ago.
There’s a lot of talk among teams about Murakami, the free agent corner infielder who is making his way from Japan — and skepticism, in some front offices, about how his skill set will play in the big leagues, given his big swing-and-miss profile and the perception that his defense could be a problem. But all he needs in this bidding is for one team (or more) to fall in love with his big-time power.
Passan: If Schwarber signs and unclogs the market, expect others to fall — either toward the end of the meetings or in the weeks leading up to Christmas. Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai could wind up with a big-market team on the East Coast, and the New York Yankees — with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon expected to miss the start of the season — New York Mets and Philadelphia are reasonable landing spots. All three have interest in Bellinger, too. Another Japanese star, Munetaka Murakami, is more likely to sign in the period between the meetings and holidays. With the paucity of center fielders in free agency and on the trade market, Bader has a healthy market.
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