What we learned about all 30 teams at the MLB GM meetings
As MLB’s hot stove season kicks off, baseball’s top executives gathered in Las Vegas for the annual general managers meetings, providing the first opportunity to hear front offices discuss their priorities for the offseason ahead.
From teams looking to make a big splash in free agency to those with trade decisions to ponder, ESPN MLB reporters Jorge Castillo, Alden Gonzalez and Jesse Rogers found out what every franchise will be focused on this winter.
Jump to a team:
AL East: BAL | BOS | NYY | TB | TOR
AL Central: CHW | CLE | DET | KC | MIN
AL West: ATH | HOU | LAA | SEA | TEX
NL East: ATL | MIA | NYM | PHI | WSH
NL Central: CHC | CIN | MIL | PIT | STL
NL West: ARI | COL | LAD | SD | SF
MLB
The Guardians gambling scandal news broke as GMs were headed to the meetings. What was the conversation on the topic this week?
Several team executives expressed hope that the expected punishments coming for Cleveland pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz would serve as the ultimate deterrent and were pleased to see some limits on prop betting. They weren’t necessarily worried this was a prevalent problem in baseball.
“We just want to educate everyone as much as possible,” Toronto Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins said. “And MLB is doing an incredible job providing us with that support.”
Agent Scott Boras also brought up prop bets during his GM meetings media session, pointing to their potential harm to player integrity he deems essential to the sport.
“Gambling and working in professional baseball,” Orioles GM Mike Elias said, “that is not something that should be mixed.”
AL East
Last offseason, Orioles general manager Mike Elias watched ace Corbin Burnes leave for Arizona and did not replace him, instead opting to rely on Grayson Rodriguez to step into the No. 1 spot and signing veterans Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano to bolster depth. But the additions struggled, Rodriguez didn’t throw a single pitch because of injuries, and the formula produced the 24th-ranked starter ERA in baseball — despite Trevor Rogers emerging as one of league’s top pitchers in the second half.
This winter, Elias said he was prioritizing acquiring a front-line starter and is willing to trade from his minor league system. His other targets include a closer and an impact bat, preferably an outfielder. — Castillo
Red Sox president of baseball operations Craig Breslow’s wish list is lofty: a front-line starter to partner with AL Cy Young runner-up Garrett Crochet atop Boston’s rotation and a right-handed-hitting middle-of-the-order slugger.
“We want someone who can start a playoff game and a bat that can produce in the middle of the order,” Breslow said. “Exactly what shape that takes and what it looks like, we’ll see.”
The Red Sox nearly acquired All-Star right-hander Joe Ryan from Minnesota at the trade deadline and they could rekindle those talks with the rebuilding Twins. Ryan, 29, recorded a 3.42 ERA in a breakout 2025 season and has two years of club control remaining. — Castillo
A year ago, the Yankees’ offseason was put on hold until Juan Soto made his decision to leave for the Mets. Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham aren’t on Soto’s level, but whether the Yankees retain either or both outfielders will have a significant impact on the rest of their offseason. Bellinger, a free agent after opting out of his contract, could command a multiyear deal approaching $200 million. Grisham has to decide whether to accept the Yankees’ qualifying offer, which would pay him $22 million next season, or reject it and hit free agency.
Jasson Dominguez and Spencer Jones are internal candidates to replace either, or both, should they sign elsewhere, though the Yankees probably would pursue another veteran option to join Aaron Judge in the outfield.
The Yankees are in need of relievers, with Devin Williams and Luke Weaver reaching free agency. A right-handed-hitting catcher, a right-handed-hitting first baseman to split time with Ben Rice, and starting rotation depth to absorb beginning next season with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt on the injured list are their other areas of focus. — Castillo
The Rays’ offseason began with picking up options for Brandon Lowe and Taylor Walls but declining an $11 million option for Pete Fairbanks, allowing their best reliever to reach free agency. The decision underlined the franchise’s financial reality as a small-market entity with an uncertain future.
Fairbanks will find a lucrative deal elsewhere — he’s in line for a three-year deal and has no shortage of suitors — and the Rays will presumably find cost-efficient ways to replace him in the bullpen. With only $29 million in guaranteed financial commitments for 2026, they will be seeking a catcher and perhaps a utility infielder. — Castillo
The Blue Jays were underdogs in the World Series, but they are not a plucky, small-market franchise. They have money and they spend it. After failing to sign franchise-altering free agents in recent years, including Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, Toronto invested $500 million to keep Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The question now is do they also keep Bo Bichette?
Bichette reached the majors months after Guerrero in 2019 and, besides an injury-plagued 2024, has been one of the best hitters in baseball since his debut. He regressed defensively at shortstop in 2025 and moving to another position is possible, but he should earn a robust nine-figure deal.
If not Bichette, the Blue Jays could earmark substantial money for Kyle Tucker, the consensus top free agent. The left-handed-hitting outfielder would complement the right-handed Guerrero in the middle of the order and supply more thump for an offense that was MLB’s best at making contact. Shane Bieber‘s surprising decision to pick up his $16 million player option dampens the need for rotation help, but the Blue Jays will pursue both starters and relievers this winter. — Castillo
AL Central
A surge in the 2026 standings isn’t front of mind for GM Chris Getz this offseason simply because the in-season jumps his young roster makes will be most impactful to how many more wins the team earns next year. Instead, the White Sox want to complement what they have, at least with a veteran outfielder and pitcher, to help show the youngsters the way.
“Some of our young players have earned the right to play at the major league level,” Getz said. “That doesn’t mean there won’t be opportunities to get into free agency and find players that are going to add to the group.”
Rounding out the pitching staff will be particularly important as the team does not want to rush its young but promising arms. Hagen Smith and Noah Schultz will eventually be in Chicago, but in the meantime, picking up veteran innings will be the goal this winter — as will deciding if the team wants Mike Tauchman as that leader in the clubhouse again. He was a positive for them in that role this past season. — Rogers
Chris Antonetti was reminded how a baseball season can turn on its head even after becoming “dark” and “bleak” as it did for Cleveland in 2025. The Guardians’ late run to the playoffs has only emboldened Antonetti’s desire to get better. But how will he do it?
“We want to score more runs,” he said. “We’re optimistic we’ll be able to do that.”
Cleveland will explore external options, but no one believes this will be an offseason of big spending. Antonetti was reminded there is a correlation between spending on payroll and going deep into the postseason.
“The system is what it is,” Antonetti said. “Until the system changes, it’s my job to find out a way to win a World Series in the system that exists.” — Rogers
Rest easy, Tigers fans. The chances of trading Tarik Skubal this offseason are low. Conversations will be had, but they’ll probably end there as a match for the two-time Cy Young Award winner with another team seems nearly impossible.
“Tarik is a Detroit Tiger,” Tigers GM Jeff Greenberg said. “We know how good he is. We’re not going to talk about our players in the context of trade or extension. He’s a Tiger. We’re happy to have him. Trading our own players isn’t something we’re going to discuss.”
In the meantime, the Tigers are waiting on infielder Gleyber Torres‘ decision on the qualifying offer they extended to him. After two straight postseason appearances, Detroit is looking for more this offseason.
“That could come through free agency or trade,” Greenberg said. “Some of that has to come through internal improvement as well. We’ll stay open-minded on all those avenues of taking the next steps in terms of where we’ve been the last two years.” — Rogers
The Royals missed the postseason in 2025, in part — or perhaps solely — because they finished 28th in runs scored. After signing Salvador Perez to a two-year extension earlier this month while watching Bobby Witt Jr. grow into a superstar role over the past two seasons, their window to win has become even clearer.
“We know right now, with a guy like Bobby Witt Jr., we’re not thinking about turning things over and building for the future,” GM J.J. Picollo said.
So what’s the plan? Finding help in left field, where the Royals finished 29th in OPS, will be a priority.
“That’s one of our objectives,” Picollo said. “Our outfield hasn’t been as productive as it needed to be. So we’re back at it again. Left field has been a bit of a revolving door. We have to try and settle that.
“If they can fit in the middle of the lineup, even better.” — Rogers
The Twins have undergone a considerable overhaul in recent months, between trading 10 players from their 40-man roster in July to hiring Derek Shelton to replace Rocco Baldelli as manager after another disappointing season. Derek Falvey, president of baseball operations, said bullpen and catcher are areas of need, while improving the team’s defense is also a priority.
Starting pitching, with Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez atop the rotation, is a considerable strength for Minnesota — potentially one it could trade from to infuse its farm system with more talent or address weaknesses.
“I think we’re going to prioritize keeping as much depth as possible, because, you know the inevitable,” Falvey said. “You’re not anticipating the injury. Guys [can be] a little bit slow coming into camp. Happens for every team in baseball. At the same time, if the right fit works — we say this with all our players on the roster — we have to be open-minded to trades that we think make us better.” — Castillo
AL West
The Athletics made a rare appearance near the top of the free agent market around this time last year, and that didn’t go very well. Luis Severino headlined their offseason splurge, then posted a 6.01 ERA at Sutter Health Park, the Sacramento-based minor league stadium the A’s are calling home as they transition to Las Vegas.
The A’s feature a young and exciting offense, but they’re still in desperate need of starting pitching, with Severino and Jeffrey Springs the only established starters going into 2026.
“We do talk about whether bringing in some experience, another veteran, some consistency, makes sense,” A’s general manager David Forst said. “It’s what everybody out there is looking for. It’s not easy to find, and ours is not the easiest park to pitch in for the next couple of years, I’m aware of that. But it’s definitely on our list.” — Gonzalez
Before hitting free agency this offseason, Framber Valdez accumulated 192 innings last year and 767⅔ innings since 2022, second most in the major leagues. The Houston Astros’ primary goal this offseason, general manager Dana Brown said, is to “get those innings back.”
Valdez is arguably the best free agent starting pitcher in this class, and the Astros are not expected to bring him back. The hope, Brown said, is that having Cristian Javier for a full season after he made only 15 starts from 2024 to 2025 will help make up for Valdez’s potential departure. Spencer Arrighetti, entering his age-27 season, could fill some of that void too. But the Astros will also be in the market for middle-tier starters. — Gonzalez
Angels owner Arte Moreno is always prone to change his mind, but at the moment, the expectation is that he won’t be spending big this offseason, especially with the civil trial related to Tyler Skaggs’ death continuing. That leaves general manager Perry Minasian with few options to fill a variety of holes throughout his roster, most notably: third base, second base, center field, starting pitching and the back end of the bullpen.
The Angels are one of approximately 30 teams in search of pitching depth at this moment. Their offensive needs, though, are more specific: the Angels would like some left-handed bats. At the moment, first baseman Nolan Schanuel is their only hitter capable of providing consistent production from the left side. Free agents Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham would be ideal fits but are not expected to be in the Angels’ price range. Minasian will need to be creative. — Gonzalez
The Mariners have made no secret about their desire to bring back first baseman Josh Naylor, which fits into a larger plan to retain as much of the 2025 group as possible. The Mariners came painstakingly close to making the first World Series in franchise history earlier this fall, and the hope is to continue to build on that momentum.
“This group this year was really special,” Mariners general manager Justin Hollander said. “They connected in real ways. I think common bonds around like care factor for winning, competitiveness, work ethic, preparation — they didn’t all display it outwardly the same way, but I think sort of hard-wired inside in a lot of the same ways. And it was really cool to see them experience a lot of winning.” — Gonzalez
The Rangers rode a high-powered offense to a championship in 2023. Since then, they have ranked 27th in OPS, prompting the team to miss the playoffs in back-to-back years — including in 2025, when the team boasted the lowest ERA in the majors and still finished nine games back in the American League West.
Now, the expectation throughout the industry is that the Rangers will cut payroll in pursuit of getting younger under new manager Skip Schumaker, with outfielder Adolis Garcia seen as a prime trade candidate. But the Rangers downplayed the idea of cutting costs simply for the sake of cutting costs this winter.
“We’re going to have a payroll that’s high enough for us to win,” Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young said. “We’ve got a great core group in place, and we are in a great position that we don’t have to make any moves to accommodate payroll, to buy payroll flexibility so to speak. We’re expecting to win with whatever number we have.” — Gonzalez
NL East
General manager Alex Anthopoulos isn’t keeping his offseason needs a secret coming off a very uncharacteristic Braves season, finishing outside the playoff picture. They have a core of good players such as Ronald Acuna Jr, Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Michael Harris II. But there are holes.
“Shortstop, starting pitcher and a lot of relievers,” Anthopoulos said. “That’s the list.”
The Braves took a late-season flier on Ha-Seong Kim, but it’s unclear if he’ll be their shortstop in 2026 as he’s a free agent. It’s also unclear who pitches behind Chris Sale and Spencer Strider, though Hurston Waldrep had a solid debut in 2025. Additions to the rotation are likely to come from outside the organization.
The Braves know they are top-heavy in talent and need more depth to navigate a long season.
“We have a good starting point, but we have holes,” Anthopoulos said. “We need a starter one way or another.” — Rogers
The Marlins exceeded external expectations with a 79-win season in 2025, and are poised to spend more money than in recent years.
Peter Bendix, president of baseball operations, signed only three players to major league deals in his first two offseasons at the helm and has only one player — Sandy Alcantara — projected to make more than a few million dollars. As with nearly every team on this list, adding pitching, both in the rotation and bullpen, is a priority. Adding a corner infielder is another potential target.
“I was really happy with the progress of our major league team, really happy with the progress of our whole organization,” Bendix said. “We want to build on that. We think we can put together a really exciting team for 2026. We think we’re still building towards our goal of being sustainably competitive year after year.” — Castillo
The Mets have significant decisions to make, starting with two beloved stars: Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz. Both All-Stars opted out of their contracts. Either player returning to Queens is far from a guarantee. Ultimately, it will depend on how David Stearns, president of baseball operations, values first base and the closer role. Last offseason, Stearns didn’t budge on giving a long-term deal to Alonso. He probably won’t this time around either.
Stearns has reiterated that he wants to improve the club’s run prevention, which means upgrades on defense and in the pitching staff. A front-line starter is a priority as is adding multiple relievers. Stearns shared this week that he views Kodai Senga as part of the starting rotation, but teams have shown interest in trading for the veteran right-hander after a rocky 2025.
“I think if a front-line pitcher, top-of-the-rotation pitcher is available, we’re going to be involved in those discussions,” Stearns said. “We do have the depth and quality of farm system at this point that we can both have those players impact our major league team in a real way and, potentially, trade some of them to get some really near-term help, if that’s available.” — Castillo
Everyone knows what the Phillies are facing this offseason: They could lose three key free agent players from their core including designated hitter Kyle Schwarber, starter Ranger Suarez and catcher J.T. Realmuto.
“We’ve talked about them,” team president Dave Dombrowski said. “We’d loved to have them. It’s more their process than ours at this point. They set the time frame. They know we have interest.”
Rival executives said they would be surprised if Schwarber wasn’t back in Philadelphia, but Suarez and Realmuto might be finding new homes for the 2026 season. It would leave work to be done for Dombrowski at those positions, to go along with a potential need in the outfield with prospect Justin Crawford an internal option. — Rogers
The Nationals remain in staffing mode under new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni, both with coaches and executives, as they move forward with a new era.
Once their focus switches to the roster, they’ll be on the lookout for a first baseman, catcher and relievers. But the question that will hover over their offseason is whether they will trade All-Star left-hander MacKenzie Gore. Gore is just 26 and has two years of control remaining. The Nationals’ rebuild isn’t near completion, though, and moving Gore for a haul of younger players would better line up with their timeline.
“We’re going to be really open-minded,” Toboni said. — Castillo
NL Central
The Cubs will be active when it comes to pitching, looking to trade or sign at least one high-end starter and/or a couple of midtier players. They’ve had success turning lower-profile relievers into high-leverage ones so using that strategy, a long-term commitment to a back-end option probably isn’t in the cards. They’ll offer some short-term deals, seeing if a proven arm will bite. Otherwise, the Cubs are going to be looking for arms wherever they can find them.
“If you look at our current lineup or depth chart, where we are most likely to improve, it’s going to be on the pitching side,” GM Carter Hawkins said. “Its not that we wouldn’t acquire an awesome position player, but it’s most likely going to be the pitching space where we find things to make us better at the cost we’ll be paying at that time.” — Rogers
The Reds know their starting rotation is their strength so adding to other parts of the team is the priority this winter and president of baseball operations Nick Krall indicated the Reds’ payroll would be “similar” to last season.
Cincinnati made strides offensively in 2025 but isn’t World Series caliber in that department just yet, so continued improvements at the plate are necessary. The Reds are also stressing getting better on defense behind their stellar rotation.
“We were midpack in defense,” Krall said. “We have to get better at that. We traded for Ke’Bryan Hayes and Spencer Steer has gotten better. We need to build on that.”
They also need to rebuild a bullpen that has four free agents potentially leaving. Essentially, the Reds have the most important part of a team’s roster set, but the rest of it is in flux as they attempt to push forward in Terry Francona’s second season. — Rogers
The Brewers are getting calls on starting pitcher Freddy Peralta after the team picked up his $8 million option for 2026. But with his production for that salary, he might not be going anywhere.
“Every team in the league is interested in Freddy Peralta,” president of baseball operations Matt Arnold said. “He means a lot to us too. I would anticipate he’s part of our team.”
As for spending free agent dollars this winter, Arnold noted that the Brewers have never operated with the lowest payroll in the league even though they are in the smallest market. Smaller additions are likely. — Rogers
Pirates general manager Ben Cherington wanted to make two things very clear this week: Paul Skenes isn’t going anywhere and improving the offense is the team’s focus. Pittsburgh scored the fewest runs in the majors in 2025, a shortcoming that sank the franchise to a 71-win campaign and extended its playoff drought to 10 seasons. To improve the offense, the Pirates are willing to spend more money than in recent years, according to sources, after fielding a payroll under $80 million last season.
“Run-scoring was the thing that got in our way more than anything and we got to add to that,” Cherington said. “Some of that has to be internal improvement, but we want to strengthen the roster too. So whether that’s through free agency, trades, combination, you name it, we’ll pursue everything and I’ll be disappointed if we don’t add to the position player group in a way that makes it look like a stronger group.” — Castillo
Chaim Bloom, new president of baseball operations, faces similar decisions to what his predecessor John Mozaliek did at this time a year ago: what to do with Nolan Arenado and Sonny Gray. The good news is there is more clarity for the players this time. Arenado is open to being moved and Gray could get there as well. They’ll both have to waive their no-trade clauses, but Bloom indicated he and the players are on the same page, so when the return price is right, expect both to be traded.
As for the rest of his goals in his first offseason, it’s about finding a group of players around which to construct the rest of the roster. The Cardinals have a few players in place but need more.
“It’s really about building our core to where we can get this organization back to where it needs to be,” Bloom said. “Taking all the steps necessary and not taking shortcuts to build it back where we can compete for a division and a World Series.” — Rogers
NL West
The Diamondbacks will begin the 2026 season without their ace (Corbin Burnes), their two most important relievers (Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk) and one of their biggest power bats (Lourdes Gurriel Jr.). But all four are expected back around midseason, if not sooner. The goal is to remain in contention in the meantime, and to do so, general manager Mike Hazen said, they’ll focus on pitching, both starters and relievers.
The departures of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly have left massive holes in the rotation and bullpen, and the D-backs don’t normally have the revenue to fill it all in free agency. That’s why Ketel Marte continues to be a fascinating name for a potential trade. Marte is 32, arguably the best second baseman in the sport, and is owed another $91 million on an extension he signed in April. Hazen said he has been getting asked “a ton” on his position players, Marte especially, though he added that the chances he gets traded are “low.” — Gonzalez
Paul DePodesta, the Rockies’ new head of baseball operations hired days before the GM meetings began, has a lot on his plate at the moment, not the least of which is hiring a manager. But by far his most important task will be figuring out pitching, and in Colorado, that’s incredibly complex. It’s not only about bringing in more talent or improving the organization’s infrastructure — it’s about figuring out how to get his pitchers to succeed at mile-high altitude, a problem the Rockies have been unable to solve in their four-decade-long history. DePodesta said he’s “very willing to experiment.”
“I think we have a lot of people in our organization that have been around a long time,” DePodesta said. “They’ve seen success at Coors Field, they’ve lived it. I’ve been the opposition, or opponent, going into Coors Field, and I have seen it from the other side, so I know it’s possible. But I’m interested in getting everybody’s take on what they’ve seen, what they feel is successful, or what’s worked in the past and what hasn’t. But we’ll probably be experimental, too, at times. I think we have to be willing to try some different things.” — Gonzalez
The Dodgers have been and will continue to be linked to free agent outfielder Kyle Tucker, though industry sources believe they’ll only get heavily involved if his market doesn’t materialize. The Dodgers are open to adding another bat, and doing so makes the most sense in the outfield, but they are not expected to go into the 10- or 12-year space for Tucker.
One place they will be aggressive, though, is in the bullpen.
The Dodgers’ bullpen was a disaster last year, so much so that they rode all four of their postseason starting pitchers to a win in Game 7 of the World Series. When asked about acquiring a set, established closer in particular, Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes said: “I don’t think it’s a need, but it could be a ‘nice to have’ if that’s how it plays out.” The expectation is that they will ultimately come away with one, either via trade or through free agency. — Gonzalez
The Padres could use a first baseman and are open to a reunion with Luis Arraez, but their primary need, general manager A.J. Preller said, is starting pitching. Joe Musgrove should be back from Tommy John surgery, but Yu Darvish will spend the 2026 season recovering from a repair of his ulnar collateral ligament, and Dylan Cease and Michael King are currently free agents. That leaves Musgrove, Nick Pivetta and a host of uncertainty beyond them
The Padres will explore free agency and trades for help, but they’re limited in both spaces. First, they must determine if Mason Miller, the star closer they acquired at midseason, would be willing to transition from the bullpen to the rotation. Those talks, Preller said, are ongoing. Adrian Morejon and David Morgan are also options to make such a move, but Miller’s decision in particular could shape their offseason. — Gonzalez
The Giants will seek high-leverage bullpen arms and starting pitching depth, but Buster Posey, entering his second offseason as president of baseball operations, identified outfield defense and baserunning as two clear areas to shore up.
Giants outfielders ranked last in outs above average last season at minus-18. As a whole, they were also one of the worst baserunning teams in the sport, finishing second-to-last in stolen bases (68) and baserunning runs above average (minus-9.1).
“I think it’s something that we can probably improve upon internally, but we’ll continue to monitor what else is possible,” Posey said. — Gonzalez
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Bill Connelly
In Week 12, college football said, “You’re going to miss me when I’m gone.” The results were consequential enough: No. 4 Alabama went down at home in the funkiest fashion imaginable, No. 5 Georgia pulled off a statement win and plenty of aspiring College Football Playoff contenders — No. 3 Texas A&M, No. 16 Georgia Tech, No. 17 USC, No. 18 Michigan — narrowly avoided disaster.
But really, this was one of the best college football weekends of the season because the college football itself was just so damn good. Tuesday night’s MACtion was incredible. We got beautiful ACC nonsense Friday night. The noon and 3:30 p.m. ET shifts gave us a number of heart-stoppers, and while Saturday evening wasn’t particularly dramatic, we still got a rush-off between Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy (300 yards and 3 touchdowns against Mississippi State) and Ole Miss’ Kewan Lacy (224 yards and 3 touchdowns against Florida) and an angry, late statement of intent from BYU. Meanwhile, the smaller-school ranks gave us countless overtimes, comebacks and surprises, plus some last-minute playoff berths.
In this column, we have a longstanding policy: If a week is just so good that you want to relive it game by game, then we relive it game by game! With stops to explore different playoff and conference title odds, here are my 25 favorite games from one of my favorite weekends of the season.
My 25 favorite games of Week 12
1. No. 3 Texas A&M 31, South Carolina 30. We’ll start with the obvious one. At halftime, after probably the worst half of Marcel Reed‘s life, I looked up what the worst-ever home loss was for a top-three team against an unranked opponent. Best I could tell, it was a tie between No. 2 Iowa’s 24-7 loss to Purdue in 2021 and No. 2 Auburn’s 27-10 loss to Arkansas in 2006. Since the score was 30-3 South Carolina at the time, this felt awfully relevant.
Reed had misfired nonstop in the first half, going a shocking 6-for-19 with 2 interceptions and 2 sacks. Almost anytime he delivered a semi-accurate ball, his receivers dropped it. A&M was unbeaten and obviously had a mulligan to give in this one, but it was fair to wonder if the Aggies might drop quite a bit in the playoff rankings, enough to make fans nervous heading into their season ender against Texas.
Some relevant second-half stats:
Total yards: A&M 371 (9.8 per play), SC 76 (2.9)
Success rate*: A&M 65.8%, South Carolina 23.1%
Marcel Reed: 16-for-20 for 298 yards and three touchdowns
SC’s LaNorris Sellers: 6-for-11 for 63 yards and four sacks (net yards in 15 pass attempts: 39)
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)
A&M won the second half 28-0, and the Aggies only made things interesting after a fumbled, goal-to-go trick play kept them from going up 38-30 late. South Carolina had a chance to drive for a shocking game-winning field goal, but that would have required Sellers to stay upright. He was sacked twice, and the Gamecocks turned the ball over on downs.
I’ve been referencing Playoff Tiers quite a bit lately — it’s my way of separating teams into groups with similar playoff odds (combining the Allstate Playoff Predictor’s odds with odds derived from SP+). Now that A&M has avoided disaster, Tier 1 is pretty much set.
CFP Tier 1 odds: Ohio State 99.9%, Indiana 99.9%, Texas A&M 99.9%.
While we’re at it, the five teams in Tier 2 are also in excellent shape.
CFP Tier 2 odds: Texas Tech 94.9%, Georgia 94.8%, Ole Miss 94.0%, Oregon 88.4%, Notre Dame 78.2%
There’s still some maneuverability here but not much. And honestly, considering Notre Dame is a projected favorite of at least 31 points in each of its final two games (Syracuse and Stanford), I don’t see how the Irish are under about 95%.
2. Kent State 42, Akron 35 (OT). Last Tuesday was my favorite day of MACtion in quite some time. We’ll get to Western Michigan’s win over Ohio below, but Kent State and Akron played an all-timer for the Wagon Wheel.
Kent State took a 35-17 lead early in the fourth quarter, thanks in part to four Dru DeShields touchdown passes — including a 89-yarder to big-play man Da’Realyst Clark (who also has two kick return scores and a touchdown pass) — but you don’t give up the Wagon Wheel without a fight! Akron scored, recovered a perfect, chip-shot onside kick, kicked a field goal, recovered a fumble and tied the game on a 13-yard Ben Finley-to-Israel Polk touchdown and 2-point conversion.
And then, after all that, DeShields found Ardell Banks for a 25-yard touchdown on the first play of overtime, Akron went four-and-out, and the Golden Flashes won anyway.
The win somehow kept bowl hopes alive for Kent State, which is an incredible thing to say considering the Golden Flashes went 0-12 last season with one of the worst FBS teams of the 21st century, then fired head coach Kenni Burns in mid-April. They have bounced back in a way that should encourage UMass fans, if nothing else — the Minutemen are on pace for an 0-12 record with nearly the same awful SP+ rating that Kent State had last season. At 4-6, the Golden Flashes probably won’t win their final two games to get to six wins (SP+ gives them a 7.8% chance of beating both Central Michigan and Northern Illinois), but SP+ didn’t think they would win four games either! Damn the computers! Go Flashes!
3. FCS: No. 11 Harvard 45, Penn 43. Harvard had to take this one twice. The unbeaten Crimson, darlings of the SP+ ratings, trailed 27-14 late in the first half but used a 21-0 run to take control and led 42-33 with less than four minutes remaining. But Penn charged back, scoring a short touchdown, forcing a three-and-out and taking a shocking lead on a 30-yard field goal with just 22 seconds left. That was just enough time for Jaden Craig (390 yards and 3 TDs on the day) to complete three passes and for Kieran Corr to knock in a 53-yard field goal at the buzzer.
ABSOLUTE CINEMA
KIERAN CORR DRILLS A 52-YARD FIELD GOAL TO WIN IT
📺 https://t.co/8oOFxoFh06
📻https://t.co/hEVv11DZR8
📊https://t.co/OtJ5xL5LM1#GoCrimson pic.twitter.com/J78Rwq7yKL— Harvard Football (@HarvardFootball) November 15, 2025
Harvard has now clinched a share of the Ivy League title, and while their SP+ rating fell a bit, the Crimson are still as proven as anyone in the non-North Dakota State category.
Current FCS SP+ top 10
1. North Dakota State (11-0): 34.7
2. Tarleton State (10-1): 27.0
3. Harvard (9-0): 25.8
4. Lehigh (11-0): 24.7
5. Montana State (9-2): 24.2
6. Montana (11-0): 22.3
7. North Dakota (7-4): 20.8
8. Tennessee Tech (10-1): 20.1
9. Stephen F. Austin (9-2): 20.0
10. Mercer (9-1): 20.0
There’s a 3.5-point drop-off to No. 11 Rhode Island, but at least nine teams will be able to talk themselves into a potential national title game run, at least if they don’t land on NDSU’s side of the 24-team bracket. And even with its defense struggling Saturday, Harvard is among those contenders.
4. No. 11 Oklahoma 23, No. 4 Alabama 21. South Carolina over A&M would have been a massive upset. This one was still pretty big, though. It was familiar, too.
One of my go-to measures is what I call Postgame Win Expectancy (PGWE). It takes a look at the predictive stats a game produces — the stuff that eventually feeds into SP+ — tosses them into the air and says, “With these stats, Team A could have expected to win this game X% of the time.” By PGWE, Alabama’s loss to Vanderbilt last season was the least likely defeat of the season.
Against the Commodores, Bama had a comfortable success rate advantage (55.6% to 42.7%) with bigger big plays (yards per play: Bama 8.8, Vandy 5.6), fewer negative plays, more goal-to-go situations, you name it. Vandy won with perfectly timed bursts and turnovers that included a perfectly deflected pick-six into the arms of Randon Fontenette. Based on the game’s stats, Bama would have won 98.5% of the time. But with a 1.5% chance, the Commodores won. Combined with a late egg-laying at Oklahoma, it contributed to the Tide falling short of the CFP.
Against Oklahoma on Saturday, Bama produced a massive success rate advantage (46.7% to 27.5%) with fewer negative plays and, despite a massive field position disadvantage, more goal-to-go situations and the same number of red zone trips. The Tide’s PGWE against the Sooners: 95.2%. OU was going to need defensive heroics (such as an 87-yard Eli Bowen pick-six) and special teams explosions (such as a 42-yard Isaac Sategna III punt return and a tipped field goal before halftime) to win this one. Guess what they got?
Thanks to an earlier run of ranked wins, the two-loss Tide are still comfortable in this year’s playoff hunt – they’ll probably have to suffer an Iron Bowl defeat to an interim-coached Auburn team to fall out of contention (and nothing wild and unexpected has ever happened in the Iron Bowl before). But with the loss, they fall from Tier 2 to Tier 3 in my playoff tiers. In addition to the top two ACC contenders and one-loss BYU, they’re joined in Tier 3 by the team that just beat them.
CFP Tier 3 odds: Alabama 58.6%, BYU 50.2%, Oklahoma 41.7%, Virginia 41.7%, Georgia Tech 36.6%
Combined with Georgia’s comfortable win over Texas, Bama’s SEC title odds took a bit of a hit too.
SEC title odds, per SP+: Georgia 33.0%, Texas A&M 31.5%, Alabama 30.0%, Ole Miss 5.4%
I’m guessing Bama fans have seen their team win enough SEC titles through the years to get a little spoiled – they’re probably more interested in CFP odds. Still, this remains an interesting race.
5. Division II: Lenoir-Rhyne 48, Catawba 46. On a beautiful, 67-degree fall day in Hickory, North Carolina, 4,987 fans saw the home team blow an enormous lead and win anyway. Lenoir-Rhyne went up 42-12 with 4:29 left in the third quarter, then watched Catawba unleash a 34-0 run over the following 18 minutes. Amari McArthur’s 87-yard catch and run (!) made it 46-42 Catawba with 1:14 left, but Khamoni Robinson completed four passes, then charged 13 yards into the end zone with six seconds remaining.
𝙈𝙤𝙣𝙚𝙮 𝙘𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙚𝙙 𝙜𝙖𝙢𝙚💰
🐻🏈#GOBEARS | #BetweenTheBricks | #W1N pic.twitter.com/pyn3nE1dRv
— Lenoir-Rhyne Football (@LRBearsFootball) November 15, 2025
6. No. 16 Georgia Tech 36, Boston College 34. After last week’s chaos, Georgia Tech and Virginia entered Week 12 atop the ACC hierarchy. Virginia played maybe its best game of the year in a surprisingly easy 34-17 win over Duke in Durham, but Tech thought long and hard about going ker-splat in this one.
BC, which played good ball in losses to Louisville and Notre Dame before face-planting last week against SMU, brought its A-game back in this one. Despite yet another ridiculous day from Tech’s Haynes King — 371 passing yards, 61 non-sack rushing yards — the Yellow Jackets found themselves trailing 28-17 heading into the fourth quarter. Jordan Allen‘s 54-yard score gave Tech the lead, but Turbo Richard responded with a 43-yard burst to make it 34-33 Eagles. BC missed the 2-point conversion, however, and that loomed large when King drove the Jackets 68 yards in four minutes and set up Aidan Birr’s chip-shot field goal for the win.
Virginia and Georgia Tech boast the best title odds at the moment, but both still have work to do.
ACC title odds, per SP+: Virginia 41.3%, Georgia Tech 27.1%, SMU 17.2%, Miami 6.1%, Pitt 5.2%, Duke 3.0%
Virginia, 6-1 in conference play, can clinch a spot in the ACC championship game with a rivalry win over Virginia Tech in two weeks (projected win probability, per SP+: 88%), while 6-1 Tech has a trickier game against Pitt next week (55%). Pitt, 5-1, likely has to beat both Georgia Tech and Miami (15%) to have a shot, and SMU, 5-1 without playing either Virginia or GT, has to beat Louisville and Cal (44%) to remain in the mix. Miami lurks at 4-2 — the Hurricanes don’t have a great shot of sneaking in, but they’ll be the favorites if they get to Charlotte.
7. Division III: Merchant Marine 39, Coast Guard 38. “College GameDay” at Pitt was pretty fun, but if I were in charge of locations — and it’s probably good that I’m not! — I would have sent Rece and the guys to … Fenway Park. That’s where the 8,966 in attendance for the Secretaries’ Cup saw maybe the most back-and-forth game of the weekend. Neither team led by more than five in the second half, and after Harrison Hensley gave Coast Guard the lead with 6:52 remaining, Merchant Marine quarterback Bubba Mustain scored from 7 yards out with just 20 seconds left to give the Mariners the win.
Mustain on the day: 46 carries for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 6-for-8 passing for 150 yards and another 2 scores. Goodness! Give him an honorary 10 points in my Heisman of the Week section below.
8. No. 18 Michigan 24, Northwestern 22. This one changed in a blink. Jordan Marshall scored with 41 seconds left in the third quarter to give Michigan a 21-9 lead, and Northwestern’s offense, which gained 181 yards in three quarters, didn’t seem capable of a comeback. But Preston Stone capped a 75-yard drive with a short touchdown, and Braden Turner returned an interception to Michigan’s 6. Caleb Komolafe gave the Wildcats a sudden lead, and Michigan turned the ball over on its next two possessions as well. But the Wolverines got one last shot and took advantage. Bryce Underwood completed a third-down pass to Andrew Marsh, then ran for another first down, and Dominic Zvada‘s 31-yard field goal at the buzzer saved the day.
Michigan’s playoff odds aren’t great because the Wolverines will almost certainly need to beat top-ranked Ohio State again to get there — as if that could ever happen — but they’re still alive, and they’re still part of …
CFP Tier 4 odds: Utah 29.9%, USC 17.8%, Miami 15.5%, Vanderbilt 13.8%, SMU 10.0%, Michigan 7.6%. (Technically Pitt still has a chance at 3.9% too.)
At most, only one team will likely get in from this tier, and with only games against Kansas State and Kansas remaining (odds of winning both, per SP+: 68%), Utah is in solid shape even (or especially?) if the Utes miss the Big 12 championship game. But USC, Miami and Michigan all remain in the hunt, and both the Trojans and Wolverines had to pull off comebacks Saturday.
9. Division II: Tiffin 23, No. 8 Findlay 21. It wasn’t the most prolific game of the day, but Tiffin and Findlay managed to pack in eight lead changes, including five in the second half and two in the last minute. Findlay appeared to have kept its unbeaten record intact with a Jayden Farmer touchdown with 53 seconds remaining but despite getting pinned at its 6-yard line after a penalty on the ensuing kickoff, Tiffin drove 94 yards in nine plays, and on the final play of the game Alex Johnson found Jaedyn McKinstry for a 13-yard, game-winning score.
DRAGONS WIN ON THE FINAL PLAY OF THE GAME 😱🐲
📺: https://t.co/ye3taPbWn6#G_MACfb | @GreatMidwestAC | @TUDragonFB pic.twitter.com/Yc4EhiexuE
— FloCollege | Football (@FloCollegeFB) November 15, 2025
10. UNLV 29, Utah State 26 (2OT). Oof. With a chance to secure bowl eligibility, Utah State set up a 44-yard field goal for Tanner Rinker at the buzzer in regulation, but he missed it. And after UNLV missed a field goal itself in overtime, Rinker got a look at a 41-yarder for the win. Missed it too. He finally knocked one in to start the second OT, but UNLV’s Kayden McGee raced 25 yards on the next snap, and UNLV moved to 8-2. The Rebels have an excellent chance of finishing with double-digit wins for the second time in three years (and only the third time in 50).
11 and 12. East Carolina 31, Memphis 27; Navy 41, No. 24 South Florida 38.
Make it three one-score losses for Memphis in 2025. On Senior Day in Greenville, the Tigers led at halftime thanks in part to an 84-yard Sutton Smith touchdown run, but Katin Houser and Payton Mangrum connected for a 31-yard score with 1:08 left, and Mike Wright Jr. picked off Brendon Lewis‘ last-second heave to secure the win and move ECU to 5-1 in American Conference play and keep its slight conference title hopes alive.
Earlier Saturday, Navy took an early lead on USF and somehow made it hold up. The Midshipmen rushed for 338 yards and led 14-3 after one quarter, and while USF cut the deficit to one score on five occasions, the Midshipmen responded with a score of their own four times and recovered a late onside kick to finish off the upset.
USF’s loss was an eliminator in the race for the Group of 5’s playoff race, which, according to the combined playoff odds used above, basically give the Sun Belt’s James Madison the best shot of reaching the CFP.
CFP Tier (Group of) 5 odds: James Madison 40.3%, North Texas 30.4%, Tulane 10.8%
The American Conference still has the best chance of producing the CFP’s representative, be it North Texas, Tulane or a longer shot, but JMU is the single most likely team.
13. Clemson 20, No. 20 Louisville 19. Clemson fumbled the ball on third-and-goal from the 1, recovered it, then fumbled again on fourth down. Louisville committed three fourth-quarter personal fouls (it felt like about 12) and missed a potential go-ahead field goal. Clemson muffed a punt snap. Louisville missed another field goal.
I guess games don’t always have to be good to be good. This one was tense, gripping and all sorts of sloppy — as sloppy as the win probability chart, in fact.
With the loss, Louisville no longer has a role to play in the ACC race.
14. Arizona State 25, West Virginia 23. Still hoping to snag bowl eligibility at 4-6, West Virginia did so many things right in this one. The Mountaineers limited ASU quarterback Jeff Sims to 81 rushing yards — he had 228 his last time out — and scored on second-half touchdown passes of 75 yards (from Scotty Fox Jr. to Jeff Weimer) and 90 yards (Fox to Cyncir Bowers) to take a 23-22 lead into the final minutes. But Jesus Gomez‘s 49-yard field goal gave ASU a 2-point advantage, and Fox was out of magic. He was picked off by Keith Abney II near midfield. Ballgame.
15. FCS: Valparaiso 32, Stetson 31 (OT). You know how coaches will sometimes talk about having one 2-point play they’re particularly confident in? Valpo came up with a pretty good solution for that: Make every 2-point play your best! Down 24-0 late in the third quarter, the Beacons surged back with three touchdowns and three 2-pointers — the last of which came with just one second left in regulation — and when they got the ball second in OT and scored to get within a point, what did they do? Go for two and make it, of course!
A look at how the comeback W finished. @valpoufootball x #GoValpo pic.twitter.com/oB1xaW3ncD
— Valpo Athletics (@valpoathletics) November 16, 2025
16. Division III: No. 25 Franklin & Marshall 29, No. 3 Johns Hopkins 28. What’s better than beating a mighty rival to secure your first-ever Division III playoff berth? Doing it in overtime after coming back from 21 points down!
FB | CHAMPIONS @FandMFootball are your 2025 Centennial Conference Football Champions‼️
The Diplomats outlast Johns Hopkins 29-28 in an OT thriller to claim their first #CCfb title since 2017. #CentConf #d3fb pic.twitter.com/rc23uDK22v
— CentennialConference (@CentennialConf) November 15, 2025
November is peak “players storm the end zone in celebration after an historic touchdown” month. Love it.
17. Western Michigan 17, Ohio 13. This game was a little more controlled than Kent State-Akron, but this Tuesday nighter was just as tense and more important in the MAC standings. Every score gave a team the lead, and Ohio finished a 17-play, 10-minute drive with a short Sieh Bangura touchdown to build a 13-10 advantage early in the fourth quarter. Just three plays later, following a 71-yard catch and run by Tailique Williams, Jalen Buckley scored to make it 17-13. Three stops later, WMU was in sole possession of first place in the MAC. The Broncos are 5-1 with five teams tied at 4-2.
18. Sam Houston 26, Delaware 23. Sam Houston went on a 26-0 run to seize control, but Delaware scored two touchdowns and recovered an onside kick. But Nate Reed‘s late 36-yard field goal attempt failed. SHSU has won two in a row after an 0-8 start.
19. No. 17 USC 26, No. 21 Iowa 21. First half: Iowa averages 6.8 yards per play while building a 21-10 halftime lead. Second half: The Hawkeyes go scoreless with a turnover and turnover on downs, and Jayden Maiava leads the Trojans to a comeback win that saves their CFP hopes (and sends “College GameDay” back to Eugene for this week’s USC-Oregon game).
20. Division II: No. 6 Central Washington 19, No. 24 Western Oregon 17. Down 17-3 heading into the fourth quarter, CWU scored twice to get within four points, and with the Lone Star Conference title on the line, Kennedy McGill found Logan Brady for a 13-yard score as time expired.
21. Division II: West Liberty 68, Wheeling 67. The most ridiculous track meet of the day was in West Liberty, West Virginia. The game began with a 100-yard kick return score and never calmed down for a second. WLU’s Hunter Patterson had a 62-yard TD catch and a 68-yard TD run in the third quarter alone, and after Wheeling erased a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit to take the lead, Osama Hurst caught a short touchdown with eight seconds left for the win.
22. Division II: West Texas A&M 45, Angelo State 44. West Texas A&M told WLU, “Game-winning score with eight seconds left? We can cut two seconds off of that!” Angelo State led 37-17 in the third quarter, but the Rams scored 28 points in the final 20 minutes, and Zach Phipps caught the game-winner with six seconds remaining. Division II has been ridiculously fun the last couple of weeks. Can’t wait for the playoffs.
23. FCS: No. 22 South Dakota 53, No. 23 Southern Illinois 51 (5OT). Can I interest you in a five-overtime marathon with playoff stakes? South Dakota moved to 8-4, but it took forever. The Yotes had to erase a 31-14 third-quarter deficit, then watch SIU send the game to OT with a late field goal. But Larenzo Fenner‘s two-point catch in the fifth OT made the difference.
24. NAIA: No. 20 Georgetown College 34, No. 10 Campbellsville 32. Trailing 34-13 with nine minutes remaining, Campbellsville scored three times, but Jett Engle’s 2-point conversion pass with 26 seconds remaining failed. Georgetown needed this one to keep NAIA playoff hopes alive and juuuuuust barely got it.
25. FCS: Elon 31, Campbell 24. We end with one more smaller-school finish. Elon watched a 17-3 halftime lead turn into a 24-17 fourth-quarter deficit, but Landen Clark‘s 19-yard scramble on fourth-and-8 tied the game with 2:50 left. The Phoenix got the ball back at their 5 with about a minute left — play for overtime, right? Nope! Go deep to Isaiah Fuhrmann instead!
*96 Yards. #PhoenixRising | #AED pic.twitter.com/6b3TwwcSZZ
— Elon Football (@ElonFootball) November 16, 2025
I’d say that silenced the home crowd.
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
Nevada: up 4.6 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 128th to 121st)
Texas Tech: up 3.6 points (from fourth to third)
UConn: up 3.2 points (from 58th to 47th)
Texas State: up 3.0 points (from 98th to 80th)
Virginia: up 3.0 points (from 43rd to 34th)
It’s hard for a team near the top of the ratings to gain a ton of points this late in the year, but Texas Tech’s performance against UCF was so resounding that the Red Raiders nearly rose more than anyone else this week.
Here are some of the key stats if we filter out garbage time:
Yards per play: Tech 8.6 (41 snaps), UCF 2.1 (34 snaps)
Success rate: Tech 68.3%, UCF 23.5%
Yards per successful play: Tech 12.0, UCF 6.8
Pct. of plays gaining 20+ yards: Tech 12.2%, UCF 0.0%
Pct. of plays gaining zero or fewer: Tech 19.5%, UCF 38.2%
Red zone trips: Tech 7, UCF 1
Red zone TD rate: Tech 57.1%, UCF 0.0%
UCF’s one decent non-garbage time drive ended in a David Bailey sack of Tayven Jackson on fourth down. The Red Raiders did whatever they wanted. They probably aren’t as good as Ohio State — I’m resigning myself to the Buckeyes being a hefty title favorite at this point — but I’d put them on even ground, at worst, against anyone else in the country.
Moving down
Here are the five teams whose ratings fell the most:
Louisiana Tech: down 3.4 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 69th to 76th)
Southern Miss: down 3.3 points (from 73rd to 86th)
NC State: down 3.0 (from 57th to 68th)
UCF: down 2.9 points (from 55th to 67th)
Purdue: down 2.9 points (from 84th to 96th)
It’s my own fault, I realize, but with the way quarterback CJ Bailey had been playing, I thought NC State might be able to make Miami sweat a little bit Saturday. I knew the Wolfpack defense would probably get hit pretty hard, but I thought it was fair to assume Bailey would manage to throw for more than 120 yards (with two picks) or Hollywood Smothers would manage more than minus-2 yards in seven carries in a 41-7 loss. Complete domination by Miami, complete implosion by the Pack.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Ahmad Hardy, Missouri (25 carries for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns against Mississippi State).
2. Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss (28 carries for 224 yards and 3 touchdowns against Florida).
3. Dante Moore, Oregon (27-for-30 passing for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 16 non-sack rushing yards against Minnesota).
4. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (22-for-24 passing for 299 yards and 4 touchdowns against Wisconsin).
5. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (24-for-29 passing for 229 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 33 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Texas).
6. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (26-for-34 passing for 371 yards and a touchdown, plus 61 non-sack rushing yards against Boston College).
7. OJ Arnold, Georgia Southern (21 carries for 267 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 53 receiving yards and a touchdown against Coastal Carolina).
8. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M (22-for-39 passing for 439 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs, plus 31 non-sack rushing yards against South Carolina).
9. Caleb Hawkins, North Texas (27 carries for 189 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 21 receiving yards against UAB).
10. Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, Marshall (22-for-27 passing for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 102 non-sack rushing yards against Georgia State).
One of my favorite things early in the season was the prominence of YAC, yards after contact, and the way it was driving some early-season success. Mizzou’s Ahmad Hardy was at the center of that and generated some momentary Heisman buzz before an October funk — three games, 207 total rushing yards, 3.7 per carry — put an end to that. But after a 109-yard performance in a loss against Texas A&M last week, Hardy put together his hardest-running performance of the season Saturday night.
THE CUT BACK & HE CAN’T BEAT. ‼️
AHMAD HARDY 72-YD TD@MizzouFootball x 📺 @SECNetwork pic.twitter.com/lGaKVc2dCr
— Southeastern Conference (@SEC) November 16, 2025
Meanwhile, the guy he more or less replaced in the Mizzou lineup — sophomore Kewan Lacy, who transferred to Ole Miss last winter — had himself quite the evening as well, allowing the Rebels to control the ball and avoid an upset in a funky game against Florida.
Hardy and Lacy managed to overshadow some pretty awesome passing performances from Big Ten QBs Mendoza and Moore (who went a combined 49-for-54) and a pair of Georgia-based QBs (Stockton and King) who should put on a heck of a show against each other in a couple of weeks. And I even had to squeeze Marcel Reed onto the list despite his playing the worst first half of his life against South Carolina. Throwing for 298 yards in the second half can cure a lot of ailments; more guys should try that.
Honorable mention:
• Kaytron Allen, Penn State (25 carries for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 10 receiving yards against Michigan State).
• Bear Bachmeier, BYU (23-for-33 passing for 296 yards and a touchdown, plus 59 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against TCU).
• Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (23 carries for 147 yards and a touchdown, plus 20 receiving yards against Pitt).
• Jordan Kwiatkowski, Central Michigan (9 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 forced fumble, 1 pass breakup and a pick-six against Buffalo).
• Andrew Marsh, Michigan (12 catches for 189 yards against Northwestern).
• Toriano Pride Jr., Missouri (three tackles, 1.5 TFLs, a pick-six, a 62-yard fumble return and a pass breakup against Mississippi State)
• Jordon Simmons, Georgia State (19 carries for 164 yards and a touchdown, plus 64 receiving yards against Marshall).
• Marcel Williams, Akron (14 catches for 206 yards and 2 touchdowns against Kent State).
Through 12 weeks, here are your points leaders, once again with ties broken by total points from the last four weeks:
1. Julian Sayin, Ohio State: 29 points (13 in the last four weeks)
2. Ty Simpson, Alabama: 29 points (zero)
3. Taylen Green, Arkansas: 27 points
4. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana: 26 points
5. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss: 25 points (10 in the last four weeks)
6. Gunner Stockton, Georgia: 25 points (six)
7. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt: 24 points
8. Demond Williams Jr., Washington: 21 points
9. Haynes King, Georgia Tech: 18 points
10. Luke Altmyer, Illinois: 16 points
Sayin took the lead in the points race last week but had a pretty forgettable evening against UCLA, allowing for Mendoza and Stockton to make up ground.
Of course, this race isn’t in charge of who gets the Heisman, and if conventional wisdom is any indication, it’s Sayin (+225 Heisman odds, per ESPN BET) who must make up ground on Mendoza (-125). I wrote last week that I’m not really a fan of that — Mendoza charged ahead after barely beating a Penn State team Sayin had just torched the week before — but barring some last-minute chaos (something the Big Ten doesn’t seem interested in producing), we’ll get a Sayin-Mendoza showdown in Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship game, and potentially the Heisman, in three more weeks. That could make the choice pretty easy, one way or the other.
The midweek playlist
Miami (Ohio) at Buffalo (Wednesday, 7 p.m., ESPN2). You should always watch MACtion just in case; lord knows I wasn’t telling you to watch Kent State-Akron last week, but you missed out if you didn’t. But the most important game of this week’s batch is in Buffalo, where two of five teams with two conference losses face off. (You should definitely dual-screen that one with Central Michigan-Kent State — the Golden Flashes still have a slight chance of reaching bowl eligibility, though CMU is hot.)
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