The Longhorns plummeted to No. 17 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s third of six rankings, indicating that even if they run the table and punctuate their résumé with a win against No. 3 Texas A&M, they might still be locked out.
Notre Dame, though, should buy some furniture and move in. At No. 9 — ahead of No. 10 Alabama — the selection committee continued to reward the two-loss Irish for how they’re playing — not who they’re beating. No. 10 Alabama has four wins against CFP top-25 opponents, including the committee’s No. 4 team Georgia, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Tennessee and No. 22 Mizzou, which snuck back into the ranking this week. Notre Dame’s only win against a CFP-ranked team is against No. 15 USC.
While the changes at the top were minimal, No. 24 Tulane is now the flavor of the week in the Group of 5 race after Navy knocked South Florida out of the same spot.
With only three Saturdays remaining before Selection Day, there are still games that can change the picture entirely, which leaves hope for some teams hovering on the bubble (here’s lookin’ at you, Miami).
The Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s third ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on this week’s committee ranking.
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The loss to Oklahoma didn’t knock the Tide out of the committee’s top 12, but it put No. 10 Alabama in must-win mode and will keep them ranked behind the Sooners. The Tide have only one SEC loss and still have the best chance of any team to reach the conference championship game (71.6%), according to ESPN Analytics.
First team out: Vanderbilt. No. 14 Vandy jumped ahead of the three-loss Longhorns despite the head-to-head loss to Texas, but remains a long shot for the field as an at-large bid. The Commodores would need to beat Kentucky and Tennessee — plus hope there is some chaos above them. Maybe — maybe — if Bama loses to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, Miami loses to Pitt, and BYU loses to Cincinnati — it can open the door, but clearly multiple things need to work in their favor.
Last team in: Oregon. This could change quickly if Oregon loses at home to USC on Saturday, as there are questions in the room about the Ducks’ No. 31 schedule strength. The Nov. 8 win at Iowa was impressive, but the Hawkeyes are now a four-loss team and dropped out of the top 25. The Ducks also have a double-digit home loss to Indiana, which is why their chances of reaching the Big Ten title game are only 12%.
First team out: USC. Like Oregon, USC just boosted its résumé with a gritty, close win against a talented Iowa team that fell out of the ranking with its fourth loss. The Trojans’ two losses were by a total of 12 points to Illinois and Notre Dame — and were both on the road. USC has a critical win against No. 18 Michigan, which boosts its status and gives the Trojans a tiebreaker in the Big Ten standings. If USC can win at Oregon (and avoid an embarrassing home loss to UCLA), the Trojans can unseat the Ducks as the Big Ten’s last team in. They would likely finish behind Notre Dame, though, because of the head-to-head result.
Still in the mix: Michigan. The difference between No. 18 Michigan and No. 17 Texas is that the Wolverines are still mathematically eligible to reach the Big Ten title game with a 3.6% chance, according to ESPN Analytics. The Wolverines avoided elimination Saturday with a narrow 24-22 win at Northwestern. They still have a chance to beat the committee’s No. 1 team in rival Ohio State, and nobody in the country would have a better win if that happens. If Michigan can run the table, it would have one of the best two-loss résumés in the country but would be ranked behind USC unless the Trojans lose again. If USC loses to Oregon, and Oregon loses to Washington — and Michigan runs the table — the Wolverines will have a strong case to be the Big Ten’s third team in. The Week 2 loss to Oklahoma looks better now that the Sooners are a top-10 team.
Last team in: Texas Tech. At No. 5, the Red Raiders are within arm’s reach of a first-round bye and have the best chance of winning the Big 12 (69.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech has a bye this week but can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game if both Cincinnati and Arizona State lose. The Oct. 18 loss to Arizona State won’t keep Texas Tech out of the CFP if it finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up, given how highly the committee has regarded Texas Tech to this point. The chances of that became even better after Arizona State appeared in the ranking at No. 25, easing some of the pain of that loss. The Red Raiders end the regular season at 4-7 West Virginia.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars put it all together during Saturday’s dominant win against TCU, but they would be excluded from the playoff today in order to make room for one of the five highest ranked conference champions. BYU still has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (80.2%) behind Texas Tech (97.5%). They can clinch a spot with a win Saturday against Cincinnati and losses by both Arizona State and Houston. If BYU wins the league, it’s a CFP lock. If BYU loses, though, it would depend on how close the game is. The selection committee is unlikely to reward BYU with an at-large bid if it plays as poorly as it did against Texas Tech during the regular season.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Utah. According to ESPN Analytics, Utah still has an 11.9% chance to reach the Big 12 championship, followed by ASU (8.4%) and Cincinnati (1.9%).
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. The No. 13 Canes are listed here because they are the selection committee’s highest-ranked ACC team and are still mathematically eligible to reach the conference championship game. Until the participants of that game are clear, the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team will continue to appear here. With six teams still in contention, the most fair representative is the committee’s. Still, Miami’s best chance at reaching the CFP right now is through an at-large bid because the Canes only have a 7.1% chance to reach the ACC title game. To get that at-large bid, Miami still needs to beat both Virginia Tech and Pitt and hope for losses above it to move into the top 10. The ACC champion will earn the No. 11 seed and the Group of 5 champion will have the No. 12 seed, so Miami needs to jump to No. 10 by Selection Day. It’s not inconceivable if Alabama loses to Auburn, BYU loses to Cincinnati and Utah loses to either K-State or at Kansas. It will take more than one of those things — if not all three. The question will be if the committee ever revisits Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame in the season opener. The Canes would likely have to creep closer to the Irish in their ranking for them to be comparable enough to use that tiebreaker. Georgia Tech can clinch a spot in the game with a win against Pitt on Saturday, and Virginia can clinch with losses by Duke, Pitt and SMU.
First team out: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets beat a 1-10 Boston College team by two points in spite of themselves and are a win away from a guaranteed appearance in the ACC championship game. They’ve also got a chance to earn a top-5 win in the regular-season finale against Georgia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t beat Georgia, it would need to win the ACC to reach the playoff because a three-loss ACC runner-up is out.
Still in the mix: Duke, Pitt, SMU, Virginia. Virginia has the best chance to reach the ACC title game (77.7%); SMU is third (38%), followed by Duke (11%), Miami and Pitt (7%).
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in:Notre Dame. At No. 9 and ahead of two-loss Alabama, Notre Dame is winning the eye test, because it is ranked behind Alabama in both Strength of Record and Strength of Schedule. Alabama has the No. 4 schedule in the country, while the Irish are No. 29. Notre Dame’s best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt, with only No. 15 USC ranked this week. As long as the Irish end the season with wins against Syracuse and Stanford, their place in the playoff should be secure.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. The Green Wave have decent wins against Northwestern, Duke and Memphis, and the best combination of eye test and résumé of the current contenders. Tulane’s No. 71 schedule strength is better than James Madison (No. 119), North Texas (No. 127) and Navy (No. 74). Tulane and North Texas are the most likely teams to play for the American Conference championship, but North Texas has the best chance to win the league (61.4%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: James Madison, Navy, North Texas. Of these teams, JMU has the best strength of record (No. 24) and game control (No. 40) ranks, but the worst strength of schedule (No. 119). Navy has the best win — against South Florida — and the best loss (to Notre Dame), but lost to North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s third ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ) No. 2 Indiana No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ) No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the L.A. Rams for ESPN from 2016 to 2018 and the L.A. Angels for MLB.com from 2012 to 2016.
The Los Angeles Dodgers greeted their fans at the tail end of their championship parade on Nov. 3, and virtually every player who grabbed the microphone atop a makeshift stage at Dodger Stadium expressed the same goal:
Three-peat.
Only two franchises, the Oakland Athletics of the early 1970s and the New York Yankees of the late 1990s, have won three consecutive World Series titles since Major League Baseball introduced divisional play in 1969. And yet the current Dodgers are unabashed in their desire to do the same.
“It’s not whether or not [or] how we’re going to do it,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said, “it’s just that we’re going to be extremely driven and do everything we can to put ourselves in the best position to do it again.”
What that looks like, exactly, is a source of intrigue throughout the sport.
The Dodgers have spent the past two offseasons throwing around money at jaw-dropping levels. In signings and extensions, they added five nine-figure contracts to their payroll, which, for competitive-balance-tax purposes, stood at roughly $415 million in 2025. The industry seemed to bend to their will because of it. Now the Dodgers operate as a sort of boogeyman. Agents attach them to their clients in an attempt to drive up prices, rival executives worry they’ll swoop in on trade targets they’re eyeing.
The Dodgers, though, continue to fight an internal battle, one voiced by general manager Brandon Gomes at last week’s general managers meetings in Las Vegas.
“How do you win this year,” he asked rhetorically, “without falling off that cliff?”
Friedman, Gomes and the rest of the Dodgers’ decision-makers are constantly trying to balance winning now with winning later, an inexact science that periodically strays them from the middle. Over these past two winters, the Dodgers leaned heavily into the present. Now they hope to find more of a balance, said multiple sources familiar with their thinking, though to what degree remains to be seen.
On one side, the Dodgers are cognizant of how much depth they have coming back and how much older their roster has become. On the other, they’re determined to maximize what Friedman has deemed this franchise’s “golden era,” mindful of how a third straight title can cement that legacy.
“I think definitionally, it’s a dynasty,” Friedman said after watching his team claim a third championship in six years. “But that to me, in a lot of ways, kind of caps it if you say, ‘OK, this is what it is.’ For me, it’s still evolving and growing, and we want to add to it and we want to continue it and do everything we can to put it at a level where people after us have a hard time reaching.”
How they do that will depend on how they answer three key questions.
It said everything about how hard the Dodgers’ bullpen fell in 2025, and yet it runs in stark contrast to the front office’s staunch belief at this moment, according to sources — that their bullpen depth should inspire confidence in 2026.
This certainly does not mean the Dodgers are set here. Their bullpen is coming off a season in which it posted a 4.27 ERA, 21st in the majors. And there are a litany of questions surrounding their returning arms, whether it’s coming back from injury (Graterol and Phillips), advanced age (Treinen and Stewart), control issues (Henriquez, Klein, Hurt and Gervase) or stark memories of a disastrous 2025 (Scott). But if there is one thing to take away from all that, it’s this:
The Dodgers will carry a high bar when it comes to their pursuit of bullpen help.
A solidified closer, or at least one leverage arm capable of handling the ninth inning on a championship team, will be what they spend the most time on in the coming weeks. And though the trade option remains their ideal path, free agency is primed with standout closers. The headliner is Edwin Diaz, though the thought of a long-term deal and the presence of a qualifying offer might scare away the Dodgers. More likely is someone such as Devin Williams, who they’ve already expressed interest in, according to sources. And a tier below are a host of others who, like Williams, can be had for the type of short-term deal the Dodgers prefer, including Brad Keller, Pete Fairbanks, Emilio Pagan, Kyle Finnegan, Luke Weaver, Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suarez.
How badly do they need another bat?
You know what else the Dodgers didn’t do all that well this past season? Hit. For a decent chunk of it, at least. Over a 33-game stretch from early July to mid-August, they batted .235 and averaged the sixth-fewest runs in the majors. Over their past three playoff rounds, they slashed a combined .213/.303/.364. If this sounds a bit harsh, well, it might be: 33 games represents only about 20% of the regular season, and hitting in the playoffs has proved to be quite difficult for any team. Keep this group intact, and on paper, it would represent arguably the best lineup in the sport.
But last season’s lulls help to underscore another important point about the Dodgers’ offseason: They can stand to add another bat, and chances are they will.
The easiest path is to add an outfielder, and this year’s free agent options just so happen to be headlined by two of them in Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger. The Dodgers aren’t expected to be one of the more aggressive suitors for Tucker, sources have indicated, but they’ll remain on the periphery if his market collapses and a short-term, high-dollar deal becomes appealing to his representatives at Excel. They’ve also expressed interest in a reunion with Bellinger, according to sources, though it remains to be seen whether they’d be motivated enough to win a potential bidding war with the Yankees.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel projects an 11-year, $418 million contract for Tucker, who turns 29 in January, and a much more modest six-year, $165 million contract for Bellinger, who will be 31 in July.
The cost for a Bellinger deal makes more sense, but so does his ability to play center field. The Dodgers are a far better defensive team if they can slide Andy Pages to right and shift Teoscar Hernández to left. Doing so would require an everyday center fielder, and perhaps it would be unfair to ask Tommy Edman to take that on in the wake of offseason ankle surgery. Bellinger — a fourth-round pick by the Dodgers in 2013, a Rookie of the Year in 2017, an MVP in 2019 and a champion in 2020 before being non-tendered only two years later — would fit the bill, and perhaps even slide to first base after Freddie Freeman‘s contract expires.
But the Dodgers can also sign someone such as Harrison Bader, whom they targeted at midseason, for less money, or, given the dearth of free agent outfielders beyond him, pivot to a trade option. Two players who might fit are Cleveland Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan and St. Louis Cardinals utility man Brendan Donovan, both of whom have a knack for putting together good at-bats and making contact. Some high-ranking members of the organization believe there is a need for more of that in their lineup, given the swing and miss of guys like Pages and Hernández. Addressing that could help limit the lulls.
Do they need to get younger?
Mookie Betts gathered his teammates for a post-parade podcast recently, and at one point the 18-inning World Series game came up. Betts argued that the second half of it was boring, to which Clayton Kershaw playfully responded that, for everyone’s sake, the offense should have ended it early.
“Our team’s so old,” Kershaw said. “We were tired the next two [games].”
What Kershaw said off the cuff was something felt by many who watched the Dodgers, both inside and outside the organization. Playing the equivalent of two full games in Game 3 of the World Series seemed to drain them more than it did their opponents, as evidenced by lethargic performances in Games 4 and 5, during which the Dodgers totaled three runs and suffered back-to-back losses.
The average age of the Dodgers’ position players was 30.7 this past season, making them the oldest group in the majors (slightly ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies at 30.3). Seven of their starting position players are now heading into their age-31 season or older, and all but one of them — Max Muncy, whose 2026 option was picked up earlier this month — are signed for multiple years.
Friedman’s longtime quest to balance the present with the future faces a difficult test with this current construction. Freeman, Betts, Ohtani and Will Smith will continue to be cornerstone players for years, but the Dodgers will spend some time this offseason wondering how they can plug in more youth around them.
They can do it the more conventional way, by slowly transitioning some of their upper-level prospects into everyday players (infielder Alex Freeland, outfielder Ryan Ward and catcher Dalton Rushing, who will return as Smith’s backup but could get time at first base and in left field in 2026). Or they can make impact moves via trade.
The Dodgers have a glut of highly regarded outfield prospects at the moment, namely Josue De Paula, Eduardo Quintero, Zhyir Hope and Mike Sirota. The Dodgers’ preference is to pluck from that group to address needs through a trade, according to sources. And though they can use them to access the closer they desire, they can also add young, controllable position players, ideally at second base, shortstop or center field. And if they need to dip into their starting pitching, River Ryan and Gavin Stone are returning from injury and don’t have a spot in a six-man rotation given the presence of Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, Ohtani, Sheehan and Roki Sasaki.
Ryan and Stone, though, have options. The Dodgers, coming off setting franchise records by deploying 40 pitchers in back-to-back seasons, can simply stash them in the minors and wait until they’re inevitably needed.
Murphy went 3-0 with a 3.12 ERA in 23 relief appearances over three stints with the Red Sox this past season. He also made five starts and 13 relief appearances in the minors, going 1-0 with a 2.93 ERA.
Murphy, 27, was selected by Boston in the sixth round of the 2019 amateur draft. He sat out the 2024 season after he had Tommy John surgery.
Boston acquired minor league catcher Ronny Hernández in the deal. The 21-year-old Hernández hit .251 with four homers and 34 RBIs in 82 games with Single-A Kannapolis this past season.
The Red Sox also traded right-hander Alex Hoppe to Seattle and left-hander Brennan Bernardino to Colorado. They acquired minor league catcher Luke Heyman from the Mariners and outfielder Braiden Ward from the Rockies.
Bernardino, 33, went 4-3 with a 3.14 ERA in 55 appearances with the Red Sox this past season.
Also Tuesday, the Red Sox designated veteran first baseman Nathaniel Lowe and right-hander Josh Winckowski for assignment.
The team also acquired infielder Tristan Gray from the Tampa Bay Rays, sending minor league righty Luis Guerrero in return.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
SEATTLE — Whether it was teammates, coaches, kitchen crew or clubhouse managers, Josh Naylor felt abundantly comfortable across his three months with the Seattle Mariners.
And thanks to a furry friend, Naylor felt right at home. A day removed from signing a $92.5 million, five-year contract, Naylor credited Seattle’s clubhouse Labrador retriever, Tucker, for helping win him over.
“When I found out we had Tucker, he put me over the edge, man,” Naylor said with a toothy grin. “I love that little guy.”
Naylor loves Seattle, and vice versa.
The 28-year-old free agent spent 54 games with the Mariners after being acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks ahead of the 2025 trade deadline and hit .299 with nine home runs, 33 RBIs and 19 stolen bases. Naylor endeared himself to the Seattle faithful with hard-nosed play, as well as for giving away pairs of his cleats to kids.
“I always tell players, or even little kids I work with in the offseason sometimes, like, play for the little kid inside of you,” Naylor said. “Always remind that kid that it’s just a game, and you’re here to have fun, and you’re here to play hard, and you’re here to compete.”
Seattle reached Game 7 of the American League Championship Series before losing to Toronto and falling one win shy of its first World Series. After a stellar postseason in which he hit .340 with three home runs, five RBIs and two stolen bases, Naylor felt he had unfinished business in Seattle.
“I wanted to come back to give this fanbase and this city and my teammates and their families a World Series in the next five years,” Naylor said, “or, multiple World Series or multiple pennants.”
President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is confident Naylor can be a key cog in winning the first World Series for a franchise that started play in 1977. He described it as a “no-brainer” to bring Naylor back.
“This was about as simple a decision as we could make organizationally,” Naylor said. “After acquiring Josh midseason at the trade deadline, the way he fit into our clubhouse, the community, the way the fan base embraced him.”
Naylor didn’t feel compelled to test the open market. He felt confident in the Mariners’ core — and not facing Seattle’s starting pitchers for the foreseeable future.
Instead, Naylor will have the good fortune of hitting behind Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez, who finished second and sixth in MVP voting.
Sticking in Seattle means a good deal for Naylor, who became a father for the first time this year. With a handful of family members on hand for Tuesday’s news conference, Naylor, whose younger brother, Bo, is a Cleveland catcher, discussed his desire to settle down in the Emerald City.
“I really would love to spend the rest of my career here and raise a family here,” Naylor said, “and have my family come to Seattle more often and watch baseball games and hopefully win a World Series here.”
Naylor’s greatest motivator is to win, which has been the case more often than not across his seven-year big league career.
“This isn’t done, in my opinion,” Naylor said. “We’ve got a lot more to do and it’s exciting for not only them, but for me and the whole city. The teammates that we have here, it’s going to be an awesome offseason in my opinion.”