CFP Anger Index: Is Ohio State really that much better than Alabama or Texas?
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David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
We’ve reached the penultimate rankings of the season, and the committee hasn’t had to do a lot of moving and shaking. Thanks to an unprecedented year of success for the favorites — teams ranked in the top eight are 89-7 with all seven losses coming to top-13 opponents — it has been mostly rinse and repeat.
But because the majority of the top 25 won’t play again until bowl season, the committee’s choices this week resonate more than most, and that means a few big names and playoff regulars have good reason to gripe.
The committee has made it clear since its first set of rankings this year that there’s a lot of love in the room for Ohio State, but boy — this still seems like a bit of a stretch, doesn’t it?
A quick look at how the four one-loss teams stack up:
Top-35 wins by the FPI (essentially a “Quad 1” win)
Alabama, 5
Texas, 5
Ohio State, 3
Oregon, 3
Wins vs. bowl-eligible opponents
Alabama, 7
Texas, 7
Ohio State, 6
Oregon, 5
Wins vs. winning Power 5 opponents
Alabama, 5
Texas, 4
Ohio State, 4
Oregon, 3
Strength of record
Ohio State, 5
Texas, 6
Alabama, 7
Oregon, 8
That last category certainly helps Ohio State’s case, though the eye test suggests it’s a bit dubious. Ohio State has two marquee wins: Notre Dame and Penn State. Both are good teams, ranked in the top 20 by the committee, and suggest the Buckeyes are worthy of discussion. But Notre Dame also got smoked by Louisville and lost to a reeling Clemson team fresh off a Dabo Swinney radio rant, meanwhile Penn State was unaware it was legal to throw a pass beyond the line of scrimmage. Notre Dame’s best win, in retrospect, came against NC State. Penn State’s résumé begins and ends with Iowa. Are we absolutely sure it’s the résumé builder the committee thinks it is?
Of course, ranking Oregon ahead of all of them is even more preposterous, given the Ducks’ lack of résumé, but that problem will take care of itself in the Pac-12 title game.
Ohio State, meanwhile, is just sitting in the clubhouse, waiting for chaos, enjoying its place in the pecking order ahead of Texas and Alabama and certainly well aware that, at this point in the season, no team ranked worse than sixth has made the playoff.
It’s certainly possible that, should Bama or Texas add the all-important “conference champion” label to its résumé, the committee will see to adjusting these standings. But it’s also possible the committee sees a delicate issue of an Alabama-Texas debate (the Tide are red hot, the Horns hold the head-to-head win) and has decided to take a note from Iowa and punt on it altogether, as it did in 2014 when it ignored the thorny Baylor-or-TCU debate in favor of … Ohio State!
Wait, Washington is in a clear win-and-in situation and is set, if things stand pat, to avoid a first-round game against Georgia. That’s great news, right? Well, sure. The committee hasn’t snubbed the Huskies here, but that doesn’t mean they have no reason to be angry, and the reason is that it really shouldn’t come down to a win-and-in scenario.
Washington has two more Quad 1 wins than Oregon and already beat the Ducks. But Oregon gets a do-over and, if it happens to win this one, everything that occurred during the regular season is out the window. Boom, Ducks are in, Washington is out. Why?
Because everybody makes a lot of money from conference championship games, so they have to be played. But Washington already won the Pac-12 while playing a tougher schedule and by beating each of the next top five finishers in the conference standings. And yet, the Huskies still face a win-or-go-home situation in a title game, while Oregon faces zero consequences for losing in the regular season.
In the lead-up to the first playoff, we talked endlessly about preserving the integrity of the regular season — the best in all of sports! Well, it’s not the playoff that has undermined the importance of the regular season. It’s the conference title games.
And when the playoff expands to 12, those games become even more problematic.
Three two-loss teams rank ahead of Oklahoma, and none will play on championship weekend. That makes the Sooners’ position all but settled, and at No. 12, it likely puts them on the outside looking in for a New Year’s Six game.
So, is that fair?
Well, we’ve already discussed Penn State’s paper-thin résumé. After Iowa, its second-best win is … Northwestern? And in two games against elite competition (Michigan and Ohio State), the Nittany Lions scored a grand total of 27 points. Yikes.
How about Missouri or Ole Miss?
SP+ ranks Missouri at 12, Oklahoma at 13 and Ole Miss at 14.
FPI has Oklahoma well ahead (No. 8) with Ole Miss at 15 and Missouri at 16.
FEI concurs, putting the Sooners at No. 8, Missouri at No. 14 and Mississippi all the way down at No. 20.
And if we look at résumés, Oklahoma has more wins vs. Quad 1 opponents (four) than Mississippi (three) or Missouri (two).
There might be a reasonable argument that Oklahoma isn’t the best of the two-loss teams, but it seems pretty clear the Sooners aren’t fourth either, and the implications of that oversight are massive, given the shift out of the New Year’s Six bids.
4. Every Group of 5 team being snubbed
We’re not going to argue with Liberty again — and in truth, the Flames get a genuine test against New Mexico State in the Conference USA title game, so a win would certainly make them worthy of consideration for a New Year’s Six bowl.
But simply being ranked has value for teams outside the Power 5, and yet only Tulane and Liberty made the cut.
How is Tulane only No. 22? The Green Wave lost one game, without starting QB Michael Pratt, against the No. 11 team in the country.
Toledo? SMU? James Madison? Not a whiff.
And yet here is Tennessee, checking in at No. 21, despite losing by a combined 71 points to the three best teams it played … despite losing by 13 to 5-7 Florida … despite its best win coming against Kentucky (by six!) … Tennessee is in ahead of all those other teams.
Honestly, Volunteers fans should probably be mad about this, too. The committee is making it harder to criticize the performance of a team that actually deserves a bit of blowback.
5. Anger Index writers (unranked, undefeated)
All the chalk this year has made it awfully hard to keep finding reasons to be outraged. Couldn’t we have gotten a few more upsets? One or two? Something that forced the committee to really split some hairs or insist upon some complete logical paradox? That’s the fun of these rankings, right? Yelling into the ether about meaningless rankings almost feels silly if there’s not a compelling argument to go along with the anger.
Well, here’s to a wild championship weekend and more complaints to come!
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
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