Coinbase rallies more than 60% in same month that FTX and Binance founders brace for prison
Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, slammed the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. He also said the cryptocurrency exchange is looking to invest more outside of the U.S.
Carlos Jasso | Bloomberg | Getty Images
In a month that saw two of the crypto industry’s leading figures headed on the path to prison, Coinbase shares rocketed more than 60%, their second-best monthly performance since the cryptocurrency exchange went public in 2021.
Bolstered by rallies in bitcoin and ether as well as crises at key competitors, Coinbase has been one of Wall Street’s best bets all year, climbing more than 250% in the first 11 months of 2023.
For early holders of the stock, the rebound helps ease the pain of 2022, when Coinbase lost 86% of its value as soaring inflation and rising interest rates pushed investors out of crypto and high-growth tech companies, and into assets deemed safer in a recession.
Tech stocks have roared back this year, particularly those tied to the artificial intelligence boom and crypto. Coinbase has the added benefit of having survived the so-called crypto winter, while so many of its rivals disappeared or downsized.
The industry fallout came to a head this month, when Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of former Coinbase rival FTX, was found guilty of seven criminal fraud counts tied to the collapse of his exchange and the theft of customer funds. His conviction landed on Nov. 2 after a monthlong trial.
Less than three weeks later, on Nov. 21, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty to violations of the Bank Secrecy Act for failing to implement an effective anti-money laundering program and for willfully violating U.S. economic sanctions.
Combination showing Former FTX CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried (L) and Zhao Changpeng (R), founder and chief executive officer of Binance.
Getty Images | Reuters
Bankman-Fried, who faces potential life behind bars, is scheduled to be sentenced in March. Zhao’s sentencing is set for February. While guidelines suggest a sentence of 12 to 18 months, the Justice Department could push for a lengthier punishment for the Binance founder.
Unlike FTX, which filed for bankruptcy in late 2022, Binance is still standing, though now without Zhao, who agreed to step down as CEO as part of the plea deal. Even before that, the company was seeing a plunge in trading, with volume down by two-thirds between the first and third quarters of the year, according to crypto analyst site CoinGecko.
With assets of more than $65 billion on the platform, Binance remains the world’s largest crypto exchange globally. But its market share fell from over 60% in February to under 50% in September, “an indication that the exchange may be losing its grip on the industry as regulators continue to pressure it,” CoinGecko said.
In the first 24 hours after the Justice Department announced its $4.3 billion settlement with Binance, customers pulled more than $1 billion from the exchange. Liquidity also dropped 25% in the immediate aftermath of the announcement as market makers pulled back their positions, according to data provider Kaiko.
A Binance spokesperson told CNBC in a statement that Zhao appeared in court “to protect our users and to ensure the longevity of our company.”
“Binance’s resilience has been tested unlike any other exchange around today,” the spokesperson said. “Yet, we continue to operate the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume. In fact, we currently see a climbing percentage of institutional user transactions.”
Coinbase is the fourth-biggest global exchange by daily volume, according to CoinGecko. It’s the only one that’s publicly traded in the U.S. and has a market cap of close $30 billion.
In a report to clients on Wednesday, analysts at Mizuho noted that Coinbase shares are up about 20% since Zhao’s settlement, a rally that’s likely “in anticipation of potential share gains for COIN in wake of outflows from Binance, the industry’s largest exchange,” they wrote. Coinbase shares fell 2.4% to $124.72 on Thursday, wiping out some of their recent gains.
Mizuho raised its price target on the stock to $35 from $31, while keeping its underperform rating, which it’s maintained since December.
‘Turn the page’
A Coinbase spokesperson declined to comment for this story, but CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche earlier this week that the Binance settlement allows the crypto industry to move past a spate of scandals.
“The enforcement action against Binance, that’s allowing us to kind of turn the page on that and hopefully close that chapter of history,” Armstrong said. “I think that regulatory clarity is going to help bring in more investment, especially from institutions.”
Both Coinbase and Binance still face legal battles with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which was noticeably absent from the Binance settlement. Meanwhile, Coinbase executives have floated the idea of leaving the U.S. altogether for a jurisdiction with hard-and-fast rules on crypto, should the company be unable to come to a resolution with the SEC.
Wall Street appears to be shrugging off that concern.
Analysts at Needham, who recommend buying Coinbase shares, wrote in a report on Nov. 21 that the company “exited the crypto ‘winter’ better positioned than in the prior up cycle.” They also noted that in addition to FTX’s failure and Binance’s retreat, crypto trading platform Bittrex has also exited the market.
Bittrex said on Nov. 20, that effective Dec. 4, “all trading activity on Bittrex Global will be disabled,” and it encouraged customers “to log into their account and withdraw assets as soon as possible.” In April, the SEC charged Bittrex and its ex-CEO with operating an unregistered exchange.
Yet there may be a new competitive threat on the horizon.
U.S. regulators are expected to soon approve the first U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which would allow investors to buy into digital currency directly through the same mechanism they use to buy stock and bond ETFs. Top asset managers, including BlackRock, WisdomTree and Invesco, have filed applications with the SEC.
Regulatory approval would open up many more avenues for people to buy bitcoin. While Coinbase allows investors to buy a variety of cryptocurrencies, bitcoin accounted for 38% of transaction volume in the third quarter and almost the same percentage of revenue. For casual investors who just want some exposure to bitcoin, there will potentially be additional ways to buy, including through their primary online brokerage.
JPMorgan Chase analysts wrote last week that crypto ETFs would likely be good for Coinbase in the short term but more problematic as time passes.
The initial boost would come from custody revenue tied to the ETFs. Most of the big asset managers jumping into market, including BlackRock, Franklin Templeton and WisdomTree, have picked Coinbase for custody services, which involves the storage and safekeeping of the assets.
However, the longer-term concern, according to JPMorgan, is that fewer people will need Coinbase accounts, leading to pricing pressure.
“We see many novice investors never going beyond these flagship tokens and thus never needing the services of a Coinbase,” wrote the analysts, who have a neutral rating on the stock and an $80 price target. “We also see the ETF markets as more transparent, efficient and lower cost to execute and we see the potential for a migration to ETFs for cheaper exposure and trading driving Coinbase to lower fees.”
WATCH: Former SEC enforcement chief on ‘casualness’ in crypto compliance
On today’s fleet-focused episode of Quick Charge, we talk about a hot topic in today’s trucking industry called, “the messy middle,” explore some of the ways legacy truck brands are working to reduce fuel consumption and increase freight efficiency. PLUS: we’ve got ReVolt Motors’ CEO and founder Gus Gardner on-hand to tell us why he thinks his solution is better.
You know, for some people.
We’ve also got a look at the Kenworth Supertruck 2 concept truck, revisit the Revoy hybrid tandem trailer, and even plug a great article by CCJ’s Jeff Seger, who is asking some great questions over there. All this and more – enjoy!
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Thanks to Trump’s repeated executive order attacks on US clean energy policy, nearly $8 billion in investments and 16 new large-scale factories and other projects were cancelled, closed, or downsized in Q1 2025.
The $7.9 billion in investments withdrawn since January are more than three times the total investments cancelled over the previous 30 months, according to nonpartisan policy group E2’s latest Clean Economy Works monthly update.
However, companies continue to invest in the US renewable sector. Businesses in March announced 10 projects worth more than $1.6 billion for new solar, EV, and grid and transmission equipment factories across six states. That includes Tesla’s plan to invest $200 million in a battery factory near Houston that’s expected to create at least 1,500 new jobs. Combined, the projects are expected to create at least 5,000 new permanent jobs if completed.
Michael Timberlake of E2 said, “Clean energy companies still want to invest in America, but uncertainty over Trump administration policies and the future of critical clean energy tax credits are taking a clear toll. If this self-inflicted and unnecessary market uncertainty continues, we’ll almost certainly see more projects paused, more construction halted, and more job opportunities disappear.”
March’s 10 new projects bring the overall number of major clean energy projects tracked by E2 to 390 across 42 states and Puerto Rico. Companies have said they plan to invest more than $133 billion in these projects and hire 122,000 permanent workers.
Since Congress passed federal clean energy tax credits in August 2022, 34 clean energy projects have been cancelled, downsized, or shut down altogether, wiping out more than 15,000 jobs and scrapping $10 billion in planned investment, according to E2 and Atlas Public Policy.
However, in just the first three months of 2025, after Trump started rolling back clean energy policies, 13 projects were scrapped or scaled back, totaling more than $5 billion. That includes Bosch pulling the plug on its $200 million hydrogen fuel cell plant in South Carolina and Freyr Battery canceling its $2.5 billion battery factory in Georgia.
Republican-led districts have reaped the biggest rewards from Biden’s clean energy tax credits, but they’re also taking the biggest hits under Trump. So far, more than $6 billion in projects and over 10,000 jobs have been wiped out in GOP districts alone.
And the stakes are high. Through March, Republican districts have claimed 62% of all clean energy project announcements, 71% of the jobs, and a staggering 83% of the total investment.
A full map and list of announcements can be seen on E2’s website here. E2 says it will incorporate cancellation data in the coming weeks.
Read more: FREYR kills plans to build a $2.6 billion battery factory in Georgia
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Tesla has reportedly delayed the launch of its new “affordable EV,” which is believed to be a stripped-down Model Y, in the United States.
Last year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a pivotal decision that altered the automaker’s direction for the next few years.
The CEO canceled Tesla’s plan to build a cheaper new “$25,000 vehicle” on its next-generation “unboxed” vehicle platform to focus solely on the Robotaxi, utilizing the latest technology, and instead, Tesla plans to build more affordable EVs, though more expensive than previously announced, on its existing Model Y platform.
Musk has believed that Tesla is on the verge of solving self-driving technology for the last few years, and because of that, he believes that a $25,000 EV wouldn’t make sense, as self-driving ride-hailing fleets would take over the lower end of the car market.
However, he has been consistently wrong about Tesla solving self-driving, which he first said would happen in 2019.
In the meantime, Tesla’s sales have been decreasing and the automaker had to throttle down production at all its manufacturing facilities.
That’s why, instead of building new, more affordable EVs on new production lines, Musk decided to greenlight new vehicles built on the same production lines as Model 3 and Model Y – increasing the utilization rate of its existing manufacturing lines.
Those vehicles have been described as “stripped-down Model Ys” with fewer features and cheaper materials, which Tesla said would launch in “the first half of 2025.”
Reuters is now reporting that Tesla is seeing a delay of “at least months” in launching the first new “lower-cost Model Y” in the US:
Tesla has promised affordable vehicles beginning in the first half of the year, offering a potential boost to flagging sales. Global production of the lower-cost Model Y, internally codenamed E41, is expected to begin in the United States, the sources said, but it would be at least months later than Tesla’s public plan, they added, offering a range of revised targets from the third quarter to early next year.
Along with the delay, the report also claims that Tesla aims to produce 250,000 units of the new model in the US by 2026. This would match Tesla’s currently reduced production capacity at Gigafactory Texas and Fremont factory.
The report follows other recent reports coming from China that also claimed Tesla’s new “affordable EVs” are “stripped-down Model Ys.”
The Chinese report references the new version of the Model 3 that Tesla launched in Mexico last year. It’s a regular Model 3, but Tesla removed some features, like the second-row screen, ambient lighting strip, and it uses fabric interior material rather than Tesla’s usual vegan leather.
The new Reuters report also said that Tesla planned to follow the stripped-down Model Y with a similar Model 3.
In China, the new vehicle was expected to come in the second half of 2025, and Tesla was waiting to see the impact of the updated Model Y, which launched earlier this year.
Electrek’s Take
These reports lend weight to what we have been saying for a year now: Tesla’s “more affordable EVs” will essentially be stripped-down versions of the Model Y and Model 3.
While they will enable Tesla to utilize its currently underutilized factories more efficiently, they will also cannibalize its existing Model 3 and Y lineup and significantly reduce its already dwindling gross margins.
I think Musk will sell the move as being good in the long term because it will allow Tesla to deploy more vehicles, which will later generate more revenue through the purchase of the “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) package.
However, that has been his argument for years, and it has yet to pan out as FSD still requires driver supervision and likely will for years to come, resulting in an extremely low take-rate for the $8,000 package.
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