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The Bank of England has said that UK households and businesses have been “resilient” in the face of rising interest rates – but repeated previous warnings that the full effect of higher interest rates was yet to come through.

Unveiling its latest Financial Stability Report – which is published twice yearly – the Bank said that household finances remained “stretched by increased living costs and higher interest rates, some of which has yet to be reflected in higher mortgage repayments.”

The Bank, which raised its main policy rate 14 consecutive times between December 2021 and August this year to the current 15-year high of 5.25%, said that, because most mortgages taken out over recent years had been at a fixed interest rate, higher interest rates tended to have a lagged effect on households with a mortgage.

It said that around 55% of mortgage borrower accounts, around five million, had repriced since interest rates began to rise in late 2021.

But it warned: “Higher rates are expected to affect around five million [further] households by 2026.

“For the typical owner-occupier mortgagor rolling off a fixed rate between [April to June] 2023 and the end of 2026, their monthly mortgage repayments are projected to increase by around £240, or around 39%.

“As higher mortgage rates continue to flow through to UK households, the average debt servicing burden will increase.”

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The report noted that, although average quoted mortgage rates had come down since the Bank’s last Financial Stability Report in July this year, they remained “higher than in the recent past”.

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People are waiting for mortgage rates to drop

Andrew Bailey, the governor, emphasised that the UK banking sector remained well capitalised and had come through the Bank’s recent stress tests well.

He added: “If economic and financial conditions were to materially worsen for households and businesses, our banking sector has the capacity to support them.”

He said that there was evidence that net interest margins (the spread between what banks charge borrowers and pay depositors and a key driver of bank profits) had peaked.

The governor highlighted that, “thank goodness”, despite higher mortgage costs there had not been a big increase in home repossessions as in the past.

He added: “The financial system is much better placed to support borrowers. It’s a benefit of financial stability that the system is able to take these actions. And that’s a good thing, a very good thing.”

Mr Bailey said that, while UK households and businesses had remained resilient in the face of higher borrowing costs, the Bank had noticed an increase in arrears among home owners – both those living in their own homes with a mortgage and among buy-to-let landlords.

He said that the Bank was “very alert” to the issue of renters and particularly in view of the fact that, with home ownership in decline, renters now formed a larger proportion of the population and also tended to be at the lower end of the income scale.

He went on: “There is obviously a financial stability lens on this and it comes through the buy-to-let market.”

Asked about the way in which some borrowers were responding to higher mortgage rates Sarah Breedon, the deputy governor responsible for financial stability, said the Bank had noted an increased uptake, over time, of long-dated mortgages of up to 35 years and particularly among younger borrowers.

She added: “The more important thing is lending into retirement when people might not have the income [to cover mortgage payments]. We don’t judge it as a financial stability risk but it is something we are watching.”

Mr Bailey said that, among corporates, there was also evidence of some arrears building up and in particular among small and medium sized businesses.

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But the report noted that the share of corporates at higher risk had fallen from its pandemic peak and pointed out that the bulk of UK corporate debt on fixed rates was due to mature in or after 2025.

The governor added: “We judge that the UK corporate sector as a whole has remained resilient.”

Further afield, Mr Bailey said that the overall risk environment remained challenging, singling out the Chinese economy – where many parts of the property sector remain under strain – as a particular risk for the global economy. He added that the “tragic events in the Middle East” had also contributed to geopolitical uncertainty.

The governor also sounded a warning on vulnerabilities in so-called ‘non-bank’ finance – services such as loans and credit which are not provided by banks but by other institutions, such as insurers, venture capital firms and currency exchanges.

In particular, he highlighted market-based finance – the provision of types of corporate credit, such as high-yield bonds and leveraged loans – where he said risks remained significant and, in some cases, had increased since the Bank’s last report in July.

He added: “There are now larger imbalances in the market in derivatives for US government debt – a key instrument in the financial system.”

The governor said that this could contribute to market volatility if hedge funds needed to unwind their positions in such instruments rapidly and noted that sharp movements in the prices of such assets could lead to wider dislocations as was shown during the LDI crisis which followed Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-Budget in September last year.

The report also revealed that, since July, the Bank’s financial policy committee had been briefed on the continued adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning in financial services and their potential financial stability implications.

Mr Bailey said: “I don’t pretend to be an expert on AI, because I am not, but when I speak to people who are they make the point [on] the complexity of the code behind it and the extent to which it is understood.

“It obviously has tremendous potential and particularly to improve productivity which would be a welcome thing.”

The governor also paid tribute to Alistair Darling, the former Chancellor, who died last week. He said Lord Darling was “wise, kind and had an absolutely wicked sense of humour.”

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HSBC ‘being attacked all the time’ by online criminals – as boss ‘kept awake at night’ by cyber threat

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HSBC 'being attacked all the time' by online criminals - as boss 'kept awake at night' by cyber threat

The boss of one of the UK’s biggest banks says it is being attacked “all the time” by online criminals and he is kept up at night by cyber threats.

“It does keep me awake,” HSBC UK chief executive Ian Stuart told the Treasury Committee of MPs.

“Because we can be attacked and we are being attacked all the time.”

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Mr Stuart said banks were spending “enormous” sums of hundreds of millions of pounds on IT systems – the biggest expense in their businesses.

“Cybersecurity is now very much at the top of our agenda,” he added.

Ian Stuart, chief executive of HSBC UK, appearing before the Treasury Committee. Pic: PA
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Ian Stuart, chief executive of HSBC UK, appearing before the Treasury Committee. Pic: PA

Concerns were also highlighted by Lloyds Bank chief executive Charlie Nunn, who said financial fraud will get worse if banks cannot intervene to prevent it and social media and telecoms companies are not incentivised to halt it.

Mr Nunn said the UK “has become the home of fraud”, adding that the number of victims is “pretty disturbing” and “individual cases are harrowing”.

Major high street businesses, including M&S and the Co-op, have been hit by cyber attacks in recent weeks and had their operations impacted.

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Who is behind M&S cyberattack?

Cybersecurity threats, however, were not behind the several-day outage at Barclays at the end of January, its UK chief executive Vim Maru said.

He added: “We’ve learned the lessons. We’re acting on the lessons, both work done internally, but also with help from third parties as well.

Account holders across the UK have suffered a spate of IT glitches from different banks around paydays this year.

Tens of millions of pounds on IT have been spent and customer glitches have fallen, Mr Maru said.

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Could ageing tech be behind banking outages?

He added that the problem at Barclays was a software issue, saying: “We put a fix in place that means that we won’t have a recurrence.”

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Steel tycoon Gupta in last-ditch bid to rescue UK empire

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Steel tycoon Gupta in last-ditch bid to rescue UK empire

The steel tycoon Sanjeev Gupta is mounting a last-ditch bid to salvage his British operations after seeing an emergency plea for government support rejected.

Sky News has learnt that Mr Gupta’s Liberty Speciality Steels UK (SSUK) arm is seeking to adjourn a winding-up petition scheduled to be heard in court on Wednesday.

The petition is reported to have been brought by Harsco Metals Group, a supplier of materials and labour to SSUK, and is said to be supported by other trade creditors.

Unless the adjournment is granted, Mr Gupta faces the prospect of seeing SSUK forced into compulsory liquidation.

That would raise questions over the future of roughly 1,450 more steel industry jobs, weeks after the government stepped in to rescue the larger British Steel amid a row with its Chinese owner over the future of its Scunthorpe steelworks.

If Mr Gupta’s operations do enter compulsory liquidation, the Official Receiver would appoint a special manager to run the operations while a buyer is sought.

A Whitehall insider said talks had taken place in recent days involving Mr Gupta’s executives and the Insolvency Service.

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Steel industry sources said the government could conceivably be interested in reuniting the Rotherham plant of SSUK with British Steel’s Scunthorpe site because of the industrial synergies between them, although it was unclear whether any such discussions had been held.

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Mr Gupta is said to have explored whether he could persuade the government to step in and support SSUK using the legislation enacted last month to take control of British Steel’s operations.

Whitehall insiders said, however, that Mr Gupta’s overtures had been rebuffed.

He had previously sought government aid during the pandemic but that plea was also rejected by ministers.

The SSUK division operates across sites including at Rotherham in south Yorkshire and Bolton in Lancashire.

It makes highly engineered steel products for use in sectors such as aerospace, automotive and oil and gas.

A restructuring plan due to be launched last week was abandoned at the eleventh hour after failing to secure support from creditors of Greensill, the collapsed supply chain finance provider to which Mr Gupta was closely tied.

Under that plan, creditors, including HM Revenue and Customs, would have been forced to write off a significant chunk of the money they are owed.

The company said last week that it had invested nearly £200m in the last five years into the UK steel industry, but had faced “significant challenges due to soaring energy costs and an over-reliance on cheap imports, negatively impacting the performance of all UK steel companies”.

It adds: The court’s ability to sanction the plan depended on finalisation of an agreement with creditors.

“This has not proved possible in an acceptable timeframe, and so Liberty has decided to withdraw the plan ahead of the sanction hearing on May 15 and will now quickly consider alternative options.”

One source close to Liberty Steel acknowledged that it was running out of time to salvage the business.

They said, however, that an adjournment of Wednesday’s hearing to consider the winding-up petition could yet buy the company sufficient breathing space to stitch together an alternative rescue deal.

A Liberty Steel spokesperson said on Tuesday: “Discussions continue with creditors.

“Liberty understands the concern this will create for Speciality Steel UK colleagues and remains committed to doing all it can to maintain the Speciality Steel UK business.”

The Insolvency Service and the Department for Business and Trade have also been contacted for comment.

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Daily Mail-owner Rothermere eyes minority Telegraph stake in RedBird deal

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Daily Mail-owner Rothermere eyes minority Telegraph stake in RedBird deal

The publisher of the Daily Mail has held talks in recent days about taking a minority stake in the Telegraph newspapers as part of a deal to end the two-year impasse over their ownership.

Sky News has learnt that Lord Rothermere, who controls Daily Mail & General Trust (DMGT), was in detailed negotiations late last week which would have seen him taking a 9.9% stake in the Telegraph titles.

It was unclear on Monday whether the talks were still live or whether they would result in a deal, with one adviser suggesting that the discussions may have faltered.

One insider said that if DMGT did acquire a stake in the Telegraph, the transaction would be used as a platform to explore the sharing of costs across the two companies.

They would, however, remain editorially independent.

Sources said that RedBird and IMI, whose joint venture owns a call option to convert debt secured against the Telegraph into equity, were hoping to announce a deal for the future ownership of the media group this week, potentially on Thursday.

However, the insider suggested that a transaction could yet be struck without any involvement from DMGT.

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The progress in the talks to seal new ownership for the right-leaning titles comes days after the government said it would allow foreign state investors to hold stakes of up to 15% in British national newspapers.

That would pave the way for Abu Dhabi royal family-controlled IMI to own 15% of the Daily and Sunday Telegraph – a prospect which has sparked outrage from critics including the former Spectator editor Fraser Nelson.

The decision to set the ownership threshold at 15% follows an intensive lobbying campaign by newspaper industry executives concerned that a permanent outright ban could cut off a vital source of funding to an already-embattled industry.

RedBird Capital, the US-based fund, has already said it is exploring the possibility of taking full control of the Telegraph, while IMI would have – if the status quo had been maintained – been forced to relinquish any involvement in the right-leaning broadsheets.

Other than RedBird, a number of suitors for the Telegraph have expressed interest but struggled to raise the funding for a deal.

The most notable of these has been Dovid Efune, owner of The New York Sun, who has been trying for months to raise the £550m sought by RedBird IMI to recoup its outlay.

On Sunday, the Financial Times reported that Mr Efune has secured backing from Jeremy Hosking, the prominent City investor.

Another potential offer from Todd Boehly, the Chelsea Football Club co-owner, and media tycoon David Montgomery, has failed to materialise.

RedBird IMI paid £600m in 2023 to acquire a call option that was intended to convert into ownership of the Telegraph newspapers and The Spectator magazine.

That objective was thwarted by a change in media ownership laws – which banned any form of foreign state ownership – amid an outcry from parliamentarians.

The Spectator was then sold last year for £100m to Sir Paul Marshall, the hedge fund billionaire, who has installed Lord Gove, the former cabinet minister, as its editor.

The UAE-based IMI, which is controlled by the UAE’s deputy prime minister and ultimate owner of Manchester City Football Club, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, extended a further £600m to the Barclays to pay off a loan owed to Lloyds Banking Group, with the balance secured against other family-controlled assets.

Other bidders for the Telegraph had included Lord Saatchi, the former advertising mogul, who offered £350m, while Lord Rothermere, the Daily Mail proprietor, pulled out of the bidding for control of his rival’s titles last summer amid concerns that he would be blocked on competition grounds.

The Telegraph’s ownership had been left in limbo by a decision taken by Lloyds Banking Group, the principal lender to the Barclay family, to force some of the newspapers’ related corporate entities into a form of insolvency proceedings.

DMGT, RedBird and IMI all declined to comment.

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