
College football award predictions: Who should (and who will) win
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David Hale, ESPN Staff WriterDec 8, 2023, 07:00 AM ET
Close- ACC reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
Before we get to bowl season, we need to get through awards season, and this year’s group of nominees are a who’s who of college football’s best.
Michael Penix Jr., Jayden Daniels, Brock Bowers, Marvin Harrison Jr. and more will all be looking to take home hardware at this year’s “Home Depot College Football Awards” on Friday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN App) .
Here are our picks for who should be honored — and who will actually nab the trophies.
Chuck Bednarik Award (defensive player of the year)
Finalists: UCLA‘s Laiatu Latu, Alabama‘s Dallas Turner and NC State‘s Payton Wilson
Who should win: Wilson
It’s easy to look at something as simple as sacks and peg Latu or Turner as the favorite here, but the award goes to the best overall defender, and it’s impossible to ignore Wilson’s all-around dominance. He’s one of just 24 Power 5 linebackers to have at least 75 snaps as a pass-rusher and 250 or more in coverage, and of that group, Wilson has the best tackle rate (94.9%), the most run stuffs (25), the most tackles for loss (17.5), the most takeaways (5) and the most passes defended (8) — not to mention the most tackles overall (138). He’s one of just two players to have made or assisted on a TFL in every game this season, and he leads all Power 5 defenders in tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage (37). Since 2018, he’s one of just three players to rack up 100 tackles, 15 TFLs, 5 sacks and 3 interceptions in the same season. He has done everything.
Who will win: Latu
We’re not saying voters are easily swayed by one or two gaudy stats, but Latu has the sexiest numbers of any of the nominees: 13 sacks (most in Power 5) and 21.5 tackles for loss (most in FBS). He’s more of a one-trick pony than Wilson — but it’s a pretty darned impressive trick.
Fred Biletnikoff Award (outstanding receiver)
Finalists: Ohio State‘s Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU‘s Malik Nabers and Washington‘s Rome Odunze
Who should win: Odunze
All due respect to the other two finalists, but when Washington — the No. 2 overall playoff seed — had its season on the line, it put the ball in Odunze’s hands because, as coach Kalen DeBoer said, he was the best player on the field. Odunze’s 81 catches, 1,428 yards and 13 touchdowns are all impressive — though, in fairness, all fall short of the stats compiled by Nabers. But Odunze has a higher catch rate on contested throws and a higher rate of first downs, and it’s impossible to ignore how critical some of his catches were in shaping the playoff race in 2023.
Who will win: Harrison
Honestly, pick any one of the three, and you’d get little pushback. They all have a compelling case, they’re all more than deserving, and all three have been among the very best players at any position this season. But it’s hard to imagine Harrison’s Ohio State career coming and going without him taking home this trophy. He has been so dominant — and at times this year, as the only real offensive threat on the field — that this feels as much a lifetime achievement award as it is one for the best receiver in 2023.
Lou Groza Collegiate Place-Kicker Award (outstanding place-kicker)
Finalists: Miami (Ohio)‘s Graham Nicholson, UNLV‘s Jose Pizano and Alabama’s Will Reichard
Who should win: Pizano
He missed just two kicks all season, and was a perfect 16-of-16 on anything less than 40 yards. He connected on both of his attempts beyond 50, so he has the leg. But the most impressive thing about Pizano’s efforts were the impact his kicks had on UNLV’s season. Six of his field goals put the Rebels ahead. In the playoff era, Pizano is one of just 10 kickers to have at least 20 made field goals, connect on at least 90% of his tries and have six or more of those kicks put his team ahead. Three have won the Groza, and the others all came in seasons in which another kicker with the same marks won it. Pizano is the only kicker to hit those marks in 2023.
Who will win: Reichard
Kicks at Alabama tend to get noticed a lot more than kicks at Miami (Ohio) or UNLV.
Ray Guy Award (punter of the year)
Finalists: Vanderbilt‘s Matthew Hayball, Florida State‘s Alex Mastromanno and Iowa‘s Tory Taylor
Who should win: Taylor
Have you watched any Iowa football lately? Punting is kind of a big deal. Indeed, when a fan base openly roots for punts, it is both an indictment of the offense and a serious point of pride for the guy booting those punts. Taylor certainly gave his fans their money’s worth. He punted 86 times this season — 11 more than any other player in the country. He racked up 4,119 punt yards, 752 more than anyone else and 1,014 more yards than Iowa’s offense managed. (In fact, Taylor punted for more yards than 33 offenses in FBS.)
Who will win: Taylor
Not only should he win, they should probably name a street after him in Iowa City.
Maxwell Award (college player of the year)
Finalists: LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Oregon‘s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.
Who should win: Daniels
There are lots of ways to measure who the best player in college football is, but here’s one pretty simple metric: Who averaged the most yards? That’d be Daniels … by an incredible 74 yards per game. OK, another one: Who was responsible for the most touchdowns? Again, it’s Daniels with 50 (40 passing and 10 rushing), who had four more total TDs than Nix despite playing one fewer game. Here’s one more amazing stat for the LSU QB: In the history of college football, only one player has ever had 50 touchdowns, committed five or fewer turnovers and averaged 400 yards of offense per game. That’s Daniels. No one else is close.
Who will win: Daniels
In eight of the past nine years, the Maxwell winner has also taken home the Heisman. Here’s guessing Daniels makes it nine of 10.
Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award (best quarterback)
Finalists: LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.
Who should win: Daniels
As noted above, he was quite good at pretty much everything.
Who will win: Penix
Unlike the Maxwell Award, the Davey O’Brien tends to differ a bit from the Heisman and leans toward quarterbacks who also won a bunch of games. That might be the edge Penix needs to win it. Because while Nix had the nifty completion percentage, he lost head-to-head against Penix twice. And while Daniels’ stat line is on another planet, LSU never sniffed the playoff, while Penix has his Washington Huskies in the mix for a national title.
Outland Trophy (most outstanding interior lineman)
Finalists: Notre Dame‘s Joe Alt, Kansas State‘s Cooper Beebe and Texas‘ T’Vondre Sweat
Who should win: Alt
The Notre Dame left tackle has been arguably the best offensive lineman in the country the past two seasons. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ top tackle for the second straight season, and his numbers support the placement. He allowed just three pressures and one sack all season from his left tackle spot, and on 347 run-blocking snaps, he blew just two.
Who will win: Alt
All three finalists had tremendous seasons, but sometimes the obvious pick is obvious for a reason.
Paycom Jim Thorpe Award (best defensive back)
Finalists: Iowa’s Cooper DeJean, Georgia‘s Malaki Starks and Air Force‘s Trey Taylor
Who should win: Taylor
He’s the odd man out when it comes to notoriously tough defenses, but the numbers make Taylor’s case pretty easy. He has more interceptions (3) than DeJean or Starks. He has 30 more tackles (71) than Starks and 40 more than DeJean. He allowed just 72 total yards on 21 targets in coverage, posting an eye-popping 0.22 yards per coverage snap.
Who will win: Starks
DeJean missed three games down the stretch. Taylor plays in the Mountain West. Starks played on a team that spent the bulk of the season atop the rankings. At the end of the day, Starks was certainly good enough to win — 51 tackles, 7 pass breakups, 2 interceptions, 0.4 yards per coverage snap — but the extra eyeballs on his games certainly don’t hurt.
Doak Walker Award (premier running back)
Finalists: Oklahoma State‘s Ollie Gordon II, North Carolina‘s Omarion Hampton and Missouri‘s Cody Schrader
Who should win: Gordon
Gordon led the nation in rushing yards (1,614), finished second in rushing TDs (20) and finished third among Power 5 backs in yards per rush. He topped 100 yards in eight of his past 10 games and had one stretch of three straight games with more than 270 yards of total offense.
Who will win: Gordon
Among the finalists, he has the most rushing yards, most touchdowns, best yards-per-carry average and the most scrimmage yards, while also being the only one of the three to play for a conference title. Sometimes it’s easy.
John Mackey Award (outstanding tight end)
Finalists: Ohio State’s Cade Stover, Georgia’s Brock Bowers and Colorado State‘s Dallin Holker
Who should win: Bowers
OK, so he missed three games. What Bowers does in 10 games is more than what most tight ends do in … a lifetime? Despite running nearly half as many routes as Holker, Bowers finished with the same number of receiving TDs (six) and just eight fewer catches and 43 fewer yards.
Who will win: Bowers
He’ll take his trophy and every defensive coordinator in the SEC will breathe a sigh of relief that they won’t have to see him again in a Georgia uniform.
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Sports
The secret to Corey Perry’s continued playoff success at age 40
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36 mins agoon
May 25, 2025By
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Ryan S. ClarkMay 25, 2025, 07:30 AM ET
Close- Ryan S. Clark is an NHL reporter for ESPN.
DALLAS — Imagine having a career that’s so strong that you’re not even aware that your next goal further enhances your Hall of Fame résumé.
That’s Corey Perry at the moment — and here’s why. His five goals during the 2025 playoffs have placed him in a tie for the second-most goals among the Edmonton Oilers. It further reinforces the narrative that the Oilers might be the deepest of the four remaining teams in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
It does something else too. Although each of his five goals has come with its own sense of significance, Perry’s next playoff goal will be even more special, because he’ll be tied with the legendary Jean Béliveau for the most postseason goals by a player in their age-39 season, according to QuantHockey.
“I think it’s just a love for the game. That’s why I want to play the game for as long as I can,” Perry said. “Once this game passes you by, it’s over, it’s done. There’s no coming back and I’ll move onto something else. That’s why what I want to do is play hockey, have fun and just be part of something.”
Postseasons create champions, challengers — and those who wish they could be either one. They create nostalgia for those who have won a title and are seeking another, and yearning for those who have yet to lift a Stanley Cup.
This particular postseason has provided Perry with the opportunity to grab one more before he eventually calls it a career. He is one of just 30 players that is part of the Triple Gold Club: winning a Stanley Cup, an Olympic Gold medal and the IIHF Men’s World Championship.
While this is still technically his age-39 season, he did turn 40 back on May 16. That makes him the second-oldest player still remaining in the playoffs, behind Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brent Burns.
Perry made his NHL debut on Oct. 5, 2005. He scored his first career goal five days later against the Oilers. He has since gone on to score 447 more, register more than 900 points and added a Hart Trophy as regular-season MVP, in a career that is either the same age or older than current young NHL stars such as Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith.
The notion that Perry’s career is now old enough to play in the NHL adds to the discussion about how and why he is able to perform at such a high level at a time in which more teams are trying to get younger.
“He’s been around so long that he understands that you need to find a role,” Oilers defenseman Troy Stecher said. “He won a Hart Trophy when he was in Anaheim, and he was the best player in the league then. Anyone coming here understands that [Connor McDavid] and [Leon Draisaitl] are probably going to get the majority of power-play time and offensive draws.
“I think with being the player he is and being around for so long, he’s done such a good job of finding a role and excelling in that role. Not just accepting it, but thriving in it.”
OPTIONS ARE EVERYTHING in the postseason. Possessing as many of them as possible enhances a team’s chances of winning.
Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch explained that the veteran winger provides the team with additional line combinations because of his versatility. He can be used on the fourth line or the top line, which is a prime example of how the Oilers have tapped into their depth to reach consecutive conference finals.
That’s when something else becomes clear: Playing Perry alongside Draisaitl and McDavid gives the Oilers three Hart Trophy winners on a single line.
It’s a distinction that no other active lineup in the NHL can claim.
“Throughout the playoffs, we’ve moved him around the lineup with Leon and Connor or just with Leon or with [Mattias] Janmark,” Knoblauch said. “Whatever position he’s been in, whether it’s the first or fourth line, he’s been able to give us quality minutes.”
0:20
Corey Perry gives Oilers 2-0 lead with his second goal
Corey Perry scores his second goal of the first period to give the Oilers a 2-0 lead over the Golden Knights.
A player doesn’t get to be an eight-time 30-goal scorer without talent for finishing scoring chances. At 30 years old, he had 34 goals in 82 games in the 2015-16 season, but he scored a combined 36 goals in the next two seasons — which signaled that he might need to reconfigure how he gets those goals going forward.
Perry started to operate more in a bottom-six role in which he was asked to provide more secondary and tertiary goals than that of a primary scorer. A sign that he was gaining comfort in that new role was when he reached double figures twice with the Tampa Bay Lightning (2021-22 and 2022-23).
It’s why the Oilers acquired him last season as they sought to add more depth in their eventual run to the Stanley Cup final with the idea he could return in 2024-25.
QuantHockey’s data shows that there have been 136 players who have had an age-39 season in NHL history. Perry’s 19 goals this season is the same amount that Jaromir Jagr scored in his age-39 campaign in 2011-12. Perry played 81 games this season, which ties him for 10th place with Brett Hull (2003-04).
Of the 27 players who have scored more goals in their age-39 season than Perry, 12 scored more than nine power-play goals. In Perry’s case, he did the majority of his work away from the power play, with 13 of them coming in 5-on-5 play. Perry is tied with Patrick Marleau and Gary Roberts, as they all had four goals with the extra-skater advantage.
“He’s reliable because he’s smart. He can read the play,” Knoblauch said. “Obviously, the speed isn’t there like other players. But he thinks at it so much better than others. One [thing] Corey is really good at is scoring goals. This year being pretty much in a fourth-line role to score 19 goals. I’m not sure how many he had on the power play in the regular season, but it was very low. For him to do that in his role says a lot.”
STARTING HIS CAREER with the Anaheim Ducks gave Perry the platform to become one of the best players of his generation, win a Stanley Cup and become someone whom Oilers teammate Evander Kane said is a future Hall of Famer.
It also gave him a front-row seat to study how future Hall of Famers such as Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger and Teemu Selanne prolonged their careers.
Niedermayer played until he was 36. Pronger made it to 37, whereas Selanne became one of 12 players in NHL history to play until he was 43.
“When you’re 22 years old, you’re sitting back and just watching. You don’t really do any of it but you might do some of it,” Perry said. “But when you see them do it everyday and continue to do it and when you get to a certain age, you’ve got to put in the work. If you don’t, these young guys coming in are bigger, faster and stronger, and you’ve got to keep up and do it at a high level.”
Every generation of players has its life cycle. Perry was part of the famed 2003 NHL draft class that gave the league future stars such as Patrice Bergeron, Dustin Brown, Jeff Carter, Marc-Andre Fleury, Ryan Getzlaf, Joe Pavelski, Zach Parise, Brent Seabrook, Eric Staal, Ryan Suter and Burns.
At one point, each of those aforementioned players were franchise cornerstones, and many won Stanley Cups. For the reverence they earned, they also understood what came with aging in a way previous generations didn’t quite encounter in the same way.
The group entered the NHL at a time in which younger players didn’t receive the most minutes, nor were they paid the most money. It’s a complete contrast to the contemporary landscape in which teams place a premium on younger players being trusted in key roles early, which then translates to signing bigger contracts.
A byproduct of that shift was that it heightened the expectations for players of a certain age to meet a physical threshold by placing a premium on body maintenance. It’s why many of them were able to play beyond age 35 by taking on various roles on their respective teams — and not necessarily on the top line or pairing.
Even then, there are limits. Parise and Pavelski retired at the end of last season not having won a Stanley Cup. Fleury, who won three Cups, announced his retirement this season. Burns, Perry and Suter are still active. So what’s the secret?
“It’s the off-ice work. It’s dietary. It’s everything,” Perry said. “It’s just about doing those different things that you can to keep your body in the best shape.”
0:46
Corey Perry tips in power-play goal for the Oilers
Corey Perry gets the Oilers on the board with a power-play goal in the second period.
Kane, who turns 34 in August, said that as someone on the back half of his career, he’s starting to understand that age is just a number. But, there are advantages to having older players in a dressing room because of their range of experiences.
Over the past two years, the Oilers have been the oldest team in the NHL. Elite Prospects lists them as having an average age of 30, while last season’s team averaged 29.2 years. Possessing that much experience has fed into a blueprint in which 11 of the players that the Oilers dressed in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals have more than 70 games of playoff experience.
Four Oilers — Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl and McDavid — have combined to appear in 342 playoff games. Perry has 227 games of postseason experience.
Another detail that the 6-foot-3 and 205-pound Perry provides to the Oilers is size. The Oilers are the fifth-tallest and fifth-heaviest team in the NHL. The team that was tallest and heaviest this season was the Vegas Golden Knights — a club that the Oilers beat in five games in order to advance to the Western Conference finals.
“With Pears, he’s been really good and really good in front of the net,” Kane said. “He’s been scoring some big, key goals at key moments for us which is obviously huge. He’s a guy that’s going to be in the Hall of Fame someday, right? He’s been a superstar player in the league for some time.
“When you have that type of pedigree and you’ve been in the league that long, you understand how to play the game and when you have different skill sets, not just one, you’re able to contribute in different ways and he’s able to do that.”
Sports
Stars-Oilers Game 3 preview: Which team wins this pivotal showdown?
Published
36 mins agoon
May 25, 2025By
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We’ve got a series, folks! The Edmonton Oilers rallied back from a 6-3 loss in Game 1 in dominant fashion, winning Game 2 over the Dallas Stars 3-0.
That sets up a pivotal Game 3 in the Western Conference finals Sunday (3 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+), as both teams look to gain an edge.
Here are notes on the matchup from ESPN Research, as well as betting intel from ESPN BET:
More from Game 2: Recap | Grades
Matchup notes
Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers
Game 3 | 3 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN+
With the series tied 1-1, the series winner odds on ESPN BET have flipped: The Oilers are now -140 favorites (previously +160), and the Stars are +120 (previously -190). The Oilers’ Cup winner odds are now +200 (+350 after Game 1), while the Stars’ are now +325 (+200 after Game 1). Connor McDavid (+300) has the second-shortest odds to win the Conn Smythe as playoff MVP. Florida Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky tops that table at +250.
The Oilers are 9-2 in their past 11 games this postseason after beginning the playoffs 0-2 and have run their record to 3-2 in Games 2 of a conference finals/Stanley Cup semifinals after losing the series opener. The other wins were in 1987 and 1991.
The Stars were shut out for the fourth time this postseason. No team has ever been shut out four times prior to reaching the Stanley Cup Final. The most was three, done by the 1950 Detroit Red Wings, 1997 Red Wings, 2012 New Jersey Devils … and 2020 Stars.
By blanking the Stars in Game 2, Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner recorded a shutout in his first three wins of a postseason, the ninth goaltender to pull off that feat. The previous eight: Marty Turco in (2007, Stars), Nikolai Khabibulin (2004, Tampa Bay Lightning), Ed Belfour (2004, Toronto Maple Leafs), Patrick Lalime (2002, Ottawa Senators), Brent Johnson (2002, St. Louis Blues), Martin Brodeur (1995, Devils), Turk Broda (1950, Maple Leafs), Dave Kerr (1940, New York Rangers)
Leon Draisaitl and McDavid are the fourth set of teammates in the past 25 years with 20 points in consecutive postseasons, joining Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh Penguins, 2008-09), Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel (Penguins, 2017-18) as well as Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point (Lightning, 2020-2021). The Penguins won the Cup in two of those seasons (2009, 2017), while the Lightning won in both 2020 and 2021.
Edmonton defenseman Evan Bouchard registered his 23rd career multipoint playoff game, all in the last four seasons. This is the most in a four-postseason span by a defenseman in Stanley Cup playoffs history — the old record was 22, by current Oilers assistant coach Paul Coffey.
Stars winger Mikko Rantanen failed to score a goal for the fifth consecutive game after scoring nine in a previous six-game span this postseason. The five-game goalless drought is Rantanen’s second-longest streak in his tenure with Dallas, behind a seven-game streak from March 14-26. Rantanen has one goal in seven games vs. the Oilers this season (two with Colorado, one with Carolina, four with Dallas).
Heading into Game 3, Miro Heiskanen has 13 career multipoint games in the playoffs, tied with Sergei Zubov for the most by a defenseman in North Stars/Stars franchise history.
Stars goalie Jake Oettinger is climbing the leaderboard for playoff wins by a U.S.-born netminder. His 32 are tied for fourth with Jon Casey and Frank Brimsek, behind Tom Barrasso (61), Jonathan Quick (49) and Mike Richter (41).
Scoring leaders
GP: 13 | G: 6 | A: 14
GP: 15 | G: 9 | A: 11
Sports
Which NL powerhouse has the edge? Sizing up 7 games in 14 days between the Dodgers and Mets
Published
36 mins agoon
May 25, 2025By
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Jorge Castillo
CloseJorge Castillo
ESPN Staff Writer
- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
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Alden Gonzalez
CloseAlden Gonzalez
ESPN Staff Writer
- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the L.A. Rams for ESPN from 2016 to 2018 and the L.A. Angels for MLB.com from 2012 to 2016.
May 23, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets are about to see a whole lot of each other.
The defending World Series champions and the team they beat to win the National League pennant last fall play three games this weekend at Citi Field and four games at Dodger Stadium starting June 2. For those of you scoring at home, that’s seven matchups in a span of 14 days.
Both teams enter Friday’s opener in back-and-forth battles for first place in their respective divisions. How will their head-to-head play dictate the state of the NL East and West? Will they clash again come October? And who has the edge — both for now and if/when they cross paths in the playoffs?
ESPN MLB writers Jorge Castillo (based in New York) and Alden Gonzalez (based in Los Angeles) answer a few key questions about the Mets and Dodgers.
What has stood out most to you about each team’s strong start to the season?
Castillo: The starting rotation was identified as the Mets’ weakness before the season, especially after Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas sustained injuries during spring training. That has not been the case so far. Instead, the Mets own the best rotation ERA in the majors with a quintet of Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning toeing the rubber. The group has stumbled recently, and its innings total ranks in the bottom half of the majors. But the collective performance has allowed the Mets to overcome slow starts from various position players — most notably, Juan Soto.
Gonzalez: The emergence of three young players in particular: Dalton Rushing, Hyeseong Kim and Andy Pages. Rushing, the team’s most promising prospect outside of Roki Sasaki, torched Triple-A and prompted the Dodgers to cut ties with their longtime backup catcher, Austin Barnes. Kim, signed out of South Korea last offseason, did the same, then performed so well in the majors the Dodgers swallowed the remaining $13 million or so in Chris Taylor’s contract. Pages, meanwhile, went from being uncertain if he’d crack the Opening Day roster to establishing himself as an everyday player.
Their success underscores what has made the Dodgers the Dodgers: No matter how bloated their payroll, how poor their draft position or how often they trade prospects for veterans, they always seem to have that next wave coming.
Despite all the positives so far, what is your biggest concern about each team?
Castillo: Regression seems inevitable for the Mets’ starting rotation (unless it’s going to maintain an ERA under 3 all season). Add that to the recent bullpen injuries — namely losing A.J. Minter for the season — and the defense’s troubles, and run prevention could become a bigger issue for the Mets as the season progresses. Defensive lapses were apparent during last weekend’s Subway Series against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium, when Mark Vientos made two errors that cost runs and Pete Alonso’s errant throw allowed the go-ahead run to score in the finale. Francisco Lindor, a perennial Gold Glove contender, hasn’t been himself at shortstop, and the corner outfield spots are below average. It’s a recipe that would call for more offense.
Gonzalez: When the Dodgers concluded their fourth homestand of the season earlier this week, 14 pitchers resided on their injured list — seven in the rotation, seven in the bullpen. Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Sasaki are all nursing shoulder injuries with nebulous timetables, severely compromising the rotation and forcing the bullpen to lead the majors in innings. That bullpen, meanwhile, is without four critical high-leverage options in Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen and Kirby Yates, leaving Dodgers manager Dave Roberts with few, if any, trusted right-handed options to hold leads late. Dodgers pitchers continue to get hurt at an alarming rate. And not even this team can overcome that rate of injury.
Who is one x-factor who could make or break each team’s season?
Castillo: Soto, by most standards, is not having a bad season at the plate. Many players would gladly take an OPS over .800. But he signed a $765 million contract to be one of the best hitters in the sport, and he’s been far from one of those. If Soto can unlock his usual form, and there’s nothing in his track record to suggest he won’t, the Mets’ lineup becomes a different animal. Soto, at his best, makes hitters around him better. He works pitchers. He shuffles and he swaggers. The Mets haven’t seen that version yet. The body language isn’t quite right and the production isn’t there. That’ll need to change for them to become legitimate pennant contenders in a loaded National League.
Gonzalez: Shohei Ohtani has been just as much an offensive force as he was last year, when he became the first full-time designated hitter to collect an MVP Award. But there’s a whole other half waiting to be unlocked. Ohtani is going through his pitching progression slowly. At this point it doesn’t seem as if he’ll join the rotation until sometime in July at the earliest — 22 months after his second UCL repair. The Dodgers backed him off his progression ahead of the season opener, they say, in hopes of not wearing him out and providing him with the best chance of being a factor in October. If he looks anything like he did on the mound from 2021 to 2023, he will be.
Who has tougher competition to win their division: The Mets in the NL East or the Dodgers in the NL West?
Castillo: The NL West has more playoff contenders (four to three), but the quality of competition in the NL East is better. The Philadelphia Phillies, the defending division champs, arguably have the best starting rotation in the majors with an experienced lineup that has been through it all. And the Atlanta Braves are back on track, reaching .500 after their ugly 0-7 start to the season, without much contribution from their two best players. Spencer Strider, activated from the injured list this week, has made only two starts. Ronald Acuna Jr. hasn’t played in a game yet. All three teams are real October threats.
Gonzalez: It’s the NL West, because that fourth legitimate playoff contender could end up making a big difference in a tight race. The Mets still have a combined 16 games remaining against the rebuilding Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins. The Dodgers can only beat up on the Colorado Rockies, who they’ll face 10 more times. And while the Phillies are great and the Braves are more dangerous than their record indicates, one can make a case for the San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants all being just as good, if not better. Of even more relevance is what the Dodgers will face in the ensuing weeks — 26 straight games against teams with a winning record, with the last 10 coming against division rivals.
These teams play seven times in the next 14 days. Give us your prediction for the series and the stars.
Castillo: This is shaping up to be a battle between a struggling pitching staff (Dodgers) and a struggling offense (Mets). Let’s go with Dodgers 4, Mets 3, because the Dodgers have one more home game. The Dodgers’ big three of Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman will power them to a season series victory.
Gonzalez: Betts got off to a slow start offensively, but he recently unlocked something in his swing and has started to round back into form of late. He’ll put his imprint on these matchups, but the Mets will win most of the games for a simple reason: On days when Yoshinobu Yamamoto does not pitch, the Dodgers don’t really know what they’ll get from their starting pitchers.
Which pitching rotation will be better come October: The Dodgers’ star-studded but oft-injured group or the Mets’ currently producing but lesser-known starters?
Castillo: It’s not even Memorial Day. These rotations could look completely different come October. But, for now, I’ll take the Dodgers. They’re bound to have at least a few of those star pitchers healthy for the postseason. If not, something went terribly, terribly wrong.
Gonzalez: The Dodgers’ priority this offseason wasn’t Soto. It was Snell. They chased him early and lavished him with $182 million because they knew pairing Snell with Glasnow and Yamamoto would give them a devastating trio for October. If those three are available then, I’m taking the Dodgers. But there’s no telling if that will be the case.
If these teams earn a rematch of the 2024 NLCS this October, who are you taking and why?
Castillo: Assuming health, the Dodgers because they’re better in every department.
Gonzalez: The Mets played the Dodgers tough last year, then signed the new Ted Williams. The Dodgers beat them despite a shorthanded rotation, then added arguably the two most coveted starting pitchers in Snell and Sasaki. Now the Mets and Dodgers are separated by one game, with near-identical run differentials. More than four months of the regular season remain. I plead the Fifth.
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