As the last decade came to an end, it was easy for a young engineer to hop on a Bird scooter and ride it to a nearby WeWork office, home to the hottest new crypto startup.
Then came Covid. Electric scooters and coworking spaces were no longer important, but there was a sudden need for tools to enable remote collaboration. Money started flowing into entertainment and education apps that consumers could tap while in lockdown. And while trading crypto.
In both periods, money was cheap and plentiful. The Federal Reserve’s near-zero interest rate policy had been in effect since after the 2008 financial crisis, and Covid stimulus efforts added fuel to the fire, incentivizing investors to take risks, betting on the next big innovation. And crypto.
This year, it all unwound. With the Fed lifting its benchmark rate to the highest in 22 years and persistent inflation leading consumers to pull back and businesses to focus on efficiency, the cheap money bubble burst. Venture investors continued retreating from record levels of financing reached in 2021, forcing cash-burning startups to straighten out or go bust. For many companies, there was no workable solution.
WeWork and Bird filed for bankruptcy. High-valued Covid plays like videoconferencing startup Hopin and social audio company Clubhouse faded into oblivion. And crypto entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of failed crypto exchange FTX, was convicted of fraud charges that could put him behind bars for life.
Last week, Trevor Milton, founder of automaker Nikola, was sentenced to four years in prison for fraud. His company had raised bundles of cash and rocketed past a $30 billion valuation on the promise of bringing hydrogen-powered vehicles to the mass market. December also saw the demise of Hyperloop One, which reeled in hundreds of millions of dollars to build tubular transportation that would shoot passengers and cargo at airline speeds in low-pressure environments.
There is surely more pain to come in 2024, as cash continues to dry up for unsustainable businesses. But venture capitalists like Jeff Richards of GGV Capital see an end in sight, recognizing that the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) days are squarely in the past and good companies are performing.
“Prediction: 2024 is the year we finally bury the class of ’21 ZIRP ‘unicorns’ and start talking about a new crop of great companies,” Richards wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter, on Dec. 25. “Never overvalued, well run, consistently strong growth and great cultures. IPO class of ’25 coming your way.” He concluded with two emojis — one of a smiling face and the other of crossed fingers.
Investors are clearly excited about tech. Following a 33% plunge in 2022, the Nasdaq Composite has jumped 44% this year as of Wednesday’s close, putting the tech-heavy index on pace to close out its strongest year since 2003, which marked the rebound from the dot-com bust.
Chipmaker Nvidia more than tripled in value this year as cloud companies and artificial intelligence startups snapped up the company’s processors needed to train and run advanced AI models. Facebook parent Meta jumped almost 200%, bouncing back from a brutal 2022, thanks to hefty cost cuts and its own investments in AI.
The 2023 washout occurred in parts of the tech economy where profits were never part of the equation. In hindsight, the reckoning was predictable.
Between 2004 and 2008, venture investments in the U.S. averaged around $30 billion annually, according to data from the National Venture Capital Association. When the Fed pulled rates close to zero, big money managers lost the opportunity to get returns in fixed income, and technology drove massive growth in the global economy and a sustained bull market in equities.
Investors, hungry for yield, poured into the riskiest areas of tech. From 2015 to 2019, VCs invested an average of $111.2 billion annually in the U.S., setting records almost every year. The mania reached a zenith in 2021, when VCs plunged more than $345 billion into tech startups — more than the total amount they invested between 2004 and 2011.
Too much money, not enough profit
WeWork’s spiral into bankruptcy was a long time in the making. The provider of coworking space raised billions from SoftBank at a peak valuation of $47 billion but was blasted when it first tried to go public in 2019. Investors balked at the more than $900 million in losses the company had racked up in the first half of the year and were skeptical of related-party transactions involving CEO Adam Neumann.
WeWork ultimately debuted — without Neumann, who stepped down in September 2019 — via a special purpose acquisition company in 2021. Yet a combination of rising interest rates and sluggish return-to-office trends depressed WeWork’s financials and stock price.
Adam Neumann of WeWork and Victor Fung Kwok-king, right, chairman of Fung Group, attend a signing ceremony at WeWork’s Weihai Road location on April 12, 2018 in Shanghai, China.
Jackal Pan | Visual China Group | Getty Images
In August, WeWork said in a securities filing that there was a “going concern” about its ability to remain viable, and in November the company filed for bankruptcy. CEO David Tolley has laid out a plan to exit many of the expensive leases signed in WeWork’s heyday.
Bird’s path to bankruptcy followed a similar trajectory, though the scooter company maxed out at a much lower private market valuation of $2.5 billion. Founded by former Uber exec Travis VanderZanden, Bird went public through a SPAC in November 2021, and quickly fell below its initial price.
Far from its meteoric growth days of 2018, when it announced it had reached 10 million rides in a year, Bird’s model fell apart when investors stopped pumping in cash to subsidize cheap trips for consumers.
In September, the company was delisted from the New York Stock Exchange and began to trade over the counter. Bird filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection earlier this month and said it will use the bankruptcy proceeding to facilitate a sale of its assets, which it expects to complete within the next 90 to 120 days.
While the onset of the Covid pandemic in 2020 was a shock to businesses like WeWork and Bird, a whole new class of companies flourished — for a short time at least. Alongside the booming stock prices for Zoom, Netflix and Peloton, startup investors wanted in on the action.
Virtual event planning platform Hopin, founded in 2019, saw its valuation increase from $1.5 billion in December 2020 to $7.75 billion by August 2021. Meanwhile, Andreessen Horowitz touted Clubhouse as the go-to app for hosting virtual sessions featuring celebrities and influencers, a novel idea when nobody was getting together in person. The firm led an investment in Clubhouse at a $4 billion valuation in the early part of 2021.
But Clubhouse never turned into a business. User growth plateaued quickly. In April 2023, Clubhouse said it was laying off half its staff in order to “reset” the company.
“As the world has opened up post-Covid, it’s become harder for many people to find their friends on Clubhouse and to fit long conversations into their daily lives,” co-founders Paul Davison and Rohan Seth wrote in a blog post.
Hopin was equally dependent on people remaining at home attached to their devices. Hopin founder Johnny Boufarhat told CNBC in mid-2021 that the company would go public in two to four years. Instead, its events and engagement businesses were swallowed up by RingCentral in August for up to $50 million.
For some of the latest high-profile failures, the problems stemmed from the tech industry’s blind faith in the innovative founder.
FTX collapsed almost overnight in late 2022 as customers of the crypto exchange demanded withdrawals, which were unavailable because of how Bankman-Fried was using their money. Bankman-Fried’s white knight veneerhad gone largely unscrutinized, because big-name investors like Sequoia Capital, Insight Partners and Tiger Global pumped in money without getting any sort of board presence in return.
Nikola’s Milton had dazzled investors and the press, taking on an ambitious effort to transform how cars run in a way that other automakers had tried and failed to do in the past. In June 2020, three years after its founding, the company went public via a SPAC.
Three months after its public market debut, Nikola announced a strategic partnership with General Motors that valued the company at more than $18 billion, which was well below its peak in June.
Within days of the GM deal, short seller firm Hindenburg Research released a scathing report, declaring that Milton was spouting an “ocean of lies.”
“We have never seen this level of deception at a public company, especially of this size,” Hindenburg wrote.
Milton resigned 10 days after the report, by which time concurrent Justice Department and Securities and Exchange Commission probes were underway. Nikola settled with the SEC in December 2021. A week before Christmas of this year, Milton was sentenced to prison for fraud.
Virgin Hyperloop One built the world’s first working, full-sized hyperloop test in Nevada. It ran last year for a little less than a third of a mile, and accelerated a 28-foot pod to 192 miles per hour in a few seconds.
Source: Virgin Hyperloop
‘Growing from lessons learned’
Hyperloop One is another far-out idea that never made it to fruition.
The company, originally called Virgin Hyperloop, raised more than $450 million from its inception in 2014 until its closure this month. Investors included Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Group, Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and Khosla Ventures.
But Hyperloop One was unable to secure contracts that could take it beyond a test site in Las Vegas, adding to years of struggles that involved allegations of executive misconduct. Bloomberg reported the company is selling off assets and laying off the remaining staff members.
Even for the segments of emerging technology that are still flourishing, the capital markets are challenging outside of AI. Hardly any tech companies have gone public in the past two years following record years in 2020 and 2021.
The few tech IPOs that took place this year stirred up little enthusiasm. Grocery delivery company Instacart went public in September at $42 a share after dramatically slashing its valuation. The stock has since lost more than 40% of its value, closing Wednesday at $23.93.
Masayoshi Son’s SoftBank, which was the principal investor in WeWork and a number of other companies that failed in the past couple years, took chip designer Arm Holdings public in September at a $60 billion valuation. The offering provided some much-needed liquidity for SoftBank, which had acquired Arm for $32 billion in 2016.
Arm has done better than Instacart, with its stock climbing 46% since the initial public offering to close at $74.25 on Wednesday.
Many bankers and tech investors are pointing to the second half of 2024 as the earliest opportunity for the IPO window to reopen in a significant way. By that point, companies will have had more than two years to adapt to a changed environment for tech businesses, with a focus on profit above growth, and may also get a boost from expected Fed rate cuts in the new year.
For some founders, the market never closed. After exiting WeWork, where he’d been propped up by billions of dollars in SoftBank cash in a decision that Son later called “foolish,” Adam Neumann is back at it. He raised $350 million last year from Andreesen Horowitz to launch a company called Flow, which says it wants to create a “superior living environment” by acquiring multifamily properties across the U.S.
Neumann’s WeWork experience isn’t proving to be a liability. Rather, it drove Andreessen’s investment.
“We understand how difficult it is to build something like this,” Andreessen wrote in a blog post about the deal. “And we love seeing repeat-founders build on past successes by growing from lessons learned.”
LISBON — Samsung’s foray into smart rings isn’t concerning the boss of the product category’s pioneer, Oura — in fact, Tom Hale says he’s seeing a boost in business.
“I’m sure that a major tech company making an announcement saying: ‘Hey, this is a category that matters. It’s going to be something that’s big.’ I think it’s probably helpful,” Hale told CNBC in an interview this week.
“In terms of the impact on our business, it has made zero impact. If anything, our business has gotten stronger since their announcement.”
In a wide-ranging interview with CNBC at the Web Summit conference in Lisbon, Hale discussed Oura’s plans for new areas of insight it wants to give users, how he is thinking about new devices and the company’s intentions for international expansion.
Oura’s flagship product is the Oura Ring 4, a device known as a smart ring. It is packed with sensors that can track some health metrics, allowing Oura app users to learn more about the quality of their sleep or how ready they are to tackle the day ahead.
Founded in Finland in 2013, the company has been called a pioneer by analysts in the smart ring space. Oura said it has sold more than 2.5 million of its rings since it launched its first product. CCS Insight forecasts Oura will end the year with a 49% market share in smart rings.
Competition is starting to rear its head in the space. The world’s largest smartphone maker Samsung made its first venture into smart rings this year with the Galaxy Ring, which some analysts say has put the device category on the map and popularized it with a broader audience.
Hale is keen to position Oura as a “health company and a science company from the get-go,” with the aim of its product being “clinical grade.” Oura is seeking approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its ring to be used for diagnostics, although Hale declined to provide too many further details.
He did say that Oura’s focus on health and science is what sets it apart from competitors.
“If you’re actually thinking [of] yourself as a healthcare company, it is very different in many ways and different postures you might take towards data privacy. … So instead of being like a tech company where data is some sort of oil to be extracted and then used to create some kind of advantage of network effects, we’re really a healthcare company where your data is sacrosanct,” Hale said.
Oura’s business model relies on selling the hardware, as well as on a $5.99 monthly subscription service that allows users to get the insights from their ring. Oura says it has nearly 2 million subscribers.
“We look more like a software company than we do look like a hardware company. And I think that’s a function of the business model, and the fact that it’s working. Our subscribers are continuing to pay,” Hale said.
Oura eyes nutrition as next ‘pillar’
Oura takes the data gathered by the ring to provide insight to its users, focused on a person’s levels of sleep, activity and readiness to take on the day.
Hale said the company is now testing out nutrition, with users able to take a picture of their meal and log it into the Oura app. Also in the nutrition space, he highlighted Oura’s recent acquisition of Veri, a metabolic health startup that can take data from continuous glucose monitors — small devices inserted into a person’s arm — to give insight into someone’s blood sugar levels. Hale says that this, combined with Oura’s food tracking feature, could tell a user how certain meals affect their glucose levels.
Many glucose monitors today are invasive and need to be inserted into the skin. Some observers see a non-invasive glucose monitor on wearable gear as something that could be transformative — but Hale warns this is a difficult goal to achieve.
“The idea that a wearable [device] will get there, I think, has definitely been a Holy Grail, and like the Holy Grail, they may never find it, because it’s a very difficult problem to solve with any kind of accuracy,” Hale said.
“Never say never. Certainly, technology continues to advance and all the capabilities continue to advance,” he added.
New hardware and AI
While Oura only sells rings currently, Hale sees the company developing new products in the future. He declined to elaborate.
“I think we’ll undoubtedly see other Oura-branded products, beyond the ring,” he promised.
He also said the company hopes to work with other devices as well, even if they are not Oura’s own hardware.
Like many hardware companies, such as Apple and Samsung, Oura is looking at ways it can use the advancing capabilities of artificial intelligence to give users more personalized insights. Smartphone makers have spoken about so-called “AI agents,” which they see as assistants that are able to anticipate what a user wants.
Oura is testing out an AI product called Oura Advisor in a similar vein.
“Think of it as the doctor in your pocket that knows all the data about you,” Hale said.
International push
Hale‘s presence at the Web Summit in Lisbon underscores his push to raise Oura’s brand awareness in markets outside of the U.S., especially as more people learn about smart rings.
“I think the point about the category being something that people are learning about, the unique benefits of that maturity, is in our favor. We’re expanding internationally,” Hale said.
He said he is particularly “excited” about venturing into Western Europe, including in countries like the U.K., Germany, France and Italy. Looking even further forward, Hale said an initial public offering for the business is not currently on the table, adding that operating as a private company gives Oura more “freedom.”
“I really enjoy the freedom that we get as a private company. We’re accountable to our investors and our shareholders, but they’re willing to let us operate with a lot license,” he said. “And if we decided we wanted to turn unprofitable because we wanted to invest in owning some category of healthcare software, it’ll be fine. They would be happy for that.”
LISBON, Portugal — Tech giants are increasingly investing in the development of so-called “sovereign” artificial intelligence models as they seek to boost competitiveness by focusing more on local infrastructure.
Data sovereignty refers to the idea that people’s data should be stored on infrastructure within the country or continent they reside in.
“Sovereign AI is a relatively new term that’s emerged in the last year or so,” Chris Gow, IT networking giant Cisco’s Brussels-based EU public policy lead, told CNBC.
Currently, many of the biggest large language models (LLMs), like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude, use data centers based in the U.S. to store data and process requests via the cloud.
This has led to concern from politicians and regulators in Europe, who see dependence on U.S. technology as harmful to the continent’s competitiveness — and, more worryingly, technological resilience.
Where did ‘AI sovereignty’ come from?
The notion of data and technological sovereignty is something that has previously been on Europe’s agenda. It came about, in part, as a result of businesses reacting to new regulations.
The European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation, for example, requires companies to handle user data in a secure, compliant way that respects their right to privacy. High-profile cases in the EU have also raised doubts over whether data on European citizens can be transferred across borders safely.
The European Court of Justice in 2020 invalidated an EU-U.S. data-sharing framework, on the grounds that the pact did not afford the same level of protection as guaranteed within the EU by the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). Last year the EU-U.S. Data Privacy Framework was formed to ensure that data can flow safely between the EU and U.S.
These political development have ultimately resulted in a push toward localization of cloud infrastructure, where data is stored and processed for many online services.
Filippo Sanesi, global head of marketing and operations at OVHCloud, said the French cloud firm is seeing lots of demand for its European-located infrastructure, as they “understand the value of having their data in Europe, which are subject to European legislation.”
“As this concept of data sovereignty becomes more mature and people understand what it means, we see more and more companies understanding the importance of having your data locally and under a specific jurisdiction and governance,” Sanesi told CNBC. “We have a lot of data,” he added. “This data is sovereign in specific countries, under specific regulations.”
“Now, with this data, you can actually make products and services for AI, and those services should then be sovereign, should be controlled, deployed and developed locally by local talent for the local population or businesses.”
The AI sovereignty push hasn’t been driven forward by regulators — at least, not yet, according to Cisco’s Gow. Rather, it’s come from private companies, which are opening more data centers — facilities containing vast amounts of computing equipment to enable cloud-based AI tools — in Europe, he said.
Sovereign AI is “more driven by the industry naming it that, than it is from the policymakers’ side,” Gow said. “You don’t see the ‘AI sovereignty’ terminology used on the regulator side yet.”
Countries are pushing the idea of AI sovereignty because they recognize AI is “the future” and a “massively strategic technology,” Gow said.
Governments are focusing on boosting their domestic tech companies and ecosystems, as well as the all-important backend infrastructure that enables AI services.
“The AI workload uses 20 times the bandwidth of a traditional workload,” Gow said. It’s also about enabling the workforce, according to Gow, as firms need skilled workers to be successful.
Most important of all, however, is the data. “What you’re seeing is quite a few attempts from that side to think about training LLMs on localized data, in language,” Gow said.
The aim of the Italia project is to store results in a given jurisdiction and rely on data from citizens within that region so that results produced by the AI systems there are more grounded in local languages, culture and history.
“Sovereign AI is about reflecting the values of an organization or, equally, the country that you’re in and the values and the language,” David Hogan, EMEA head of enterprise sales for chipmaking giant Nvidia, told CNBC.
“The core challenge is that most of the frontier models today have been trained primarily on Western data generally,” Hogan added.
In Denmark for example, where Nvidia has a major presence, officials are concerned about vital services such as health care and telecoms being delivered by AI systems that aren’t “reflective” of local Danish culture and values, according to Hogan.
On Wednesday, Denmark laid out a landmark white paper outlining how companies can use AI in compliance with the incoming EU AI Act — the world’s first major AI law. The document is meant to serve as a blueprint for other EU nations to follow and adopt.
“If you’re in a European country that’s not one of the major language countries that’s spoken internationally, probably less than 2% of the data is trained on your language — let alone your culture,” Hogan said.
How regulation fueled a mindset shift
That’s not to say regulations haven’t proven an important factor in getting tech giants to think more about building localized AI infrastructure within Europe.
OVHCloud’s Sanesi said regulations like the EU’s GDPR catalyzed a lot of the interest in onshoring the processing of data in a given region.
The concept of AI sovereignty is also getting buy-in from local European tech firms.
Earlier this week, Berlin-headquartered search engine Ecosia and its Paris-based peer Qwant announced a joint venture to develop a European search index from scratch, aiming to serve improved French and German language results.
Meanwhile, French telecom operator Orange has said it’s in discussions with a number of foundational AI model companies about building a smartphone-based “sovereign AI” model for its customers that more accurately reflects their own language and culture.
“It wouldn’t make sense to build our own LLMs. So there’s a lot of discussion right now about, how do we partner with existing providers to make it more local and safer?” Bruno Zerbib, Orange’s chief technology officer, told CNBC.
“There are a lot of use cases where [AI data] can be processed locally [on a phone] instead of processed on the cloud,” Zerbib added. Orange hasn’t yet selected a partner for these sovereign AI model ambitions.
In this photo illustration, the Bluesky Social logo is displayed on a cell phone in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on September 4, 2024.
Mauro Pimentel | AFP | Getty Images
Micro-blogging startup Bluesky has gained over 1.25 million new users in the past week, indicating some social media users are changing their habits following the U.S. presidential election.
Bluesky’s influx of users shows that the app has been able to pitch itself as an alternative to X, formerly Twitter, which is owned by Elon Musk, as well as Meta’s Threads. The bulk of the new users are coming from the U.S., Canada and the United Kingdom, the company said Wednesday.
“We’re excited to welcome everyone looking for a better social media experience,” Bluesky CEO Jay Graber told CNBC in a statement.
Despite the surge of users, Bluesky’s total base remains a fraction of its rivals’. The Seattle startup claims 15.2 million total users. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg in October said Threads had nearly 275 million monthly users. Musk in May claimed that X had 600 million monthly users, but market intelligence firm Sensor Tower pegged X’s monthly base at 318 million users in October.
Created in 2019 as a project inside Twitter, when Jack Dorsey was still CEO, Bluesky doesn’t show ads and has yet to develop a business model. It became an independent company in 2021. Dorsey said in May of this year that he’s no longer a member of Bluesky’s board.
“Journalists, politicians, and news junkies have also been talking up Bluesky as a better X alternative than Threads,” wrote Similarweb, the internet traffic and monitoring service, in a Tuesday blog.
Some users with new Bluesky accounts posted that they had moved to the service due to Musk and his support for President-elect Donald Trump.
“It’s appalling that Elon Musk has transformed Twitter into a Trump propaganda machine, rife with disinformation and misinformation,” one user posted on Bluesky.
This is Bluesky’s second notable surge in the last couple of months.
Bluesky said it picked up 2 million new users in September after the Brazilian Supreme Court suspended X in the country for failing to comply with regional content moderation policies and not appointing a local representative.