A Boston blockbuster? An All-Star slugger traded? Bold predictions for the rest of the MLB offseason
With pitchers and catchers reporting next month, we’ve hit the final stretch of the 2023-24 MLB offseason — and there are still plenty of moves left to be made.
Where will the top remaining free agents land? Will we see any more blockbuster trades? Will the Boston Red Sox do something big before Opening Day?
We asked our MLB experts to go out on a limb and make a bold prediction for how this winter will wrap up.
Free agency
Alden Gonzalez: Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell and Josh Hader won’t sign in January
They’re the top position player, top starting pitcher and, by a wide margin, top relief pitcher remaining in free agency, all worthy of nine-figure contracts — but all with real obstacles standing in the way. Bellinger is a 28-year-old former MVP who possesses elite power, speed and defense. But he slashed just .193/.256/.355 from 2021 to 2022, and some of the underlying numbers behind his resurgent 2023 season — exit velocity, barrel percentage and hard-hit rate specifically — have alarmed executives. Snell won his second Cy Young Award last year, but he did so while pitching beyond the sixth inning only three times. Hader is arguably the game’s best closer, but his dominance is occurring at a time when teams are less willing to spend exorbitant sums on one reliever. (The record-setting $102 million contract Edwin Diaz secured with the New York Mets last offseason is seen by many as a potential outlier, given his significance to a team owned by the sport’s richest owner.) Things can change in an instant this time of year; all it takes is one team stepping up its efforts for this prediction to be flatly wrong. But the money Bellinger, Snell and Hader seek — and, in many ways, deserve — doesn’t appear to be there at the moment.
Jesse Rogers: Scott Boras will fill multiple spots for one team
Bold will come in the form of agent Scott Boras. He has a lot of players still left on the board, including Bellinger, Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Rhys Hoskins. His clients tend to congregate on teams — see Marcus Semien and Corey Seager for evidence — and the end of this offseason will be no different. He’ll maneuver multiple players to one team — be it the Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants or even the Chicago Cubs. That latter team rarely does big deals with Boras clients, so it would be a departure from the norm to sign multiple players of his. Still, the Cubs’ offseason has been so — can we say slow? — since hiring manager Craig Counsell, that something outside the norm would be a welcome relief for fans.
David Schoenfield: The Mariners will sign Blake Snell
OK, we’re looking for something bold and outrageous, right? I’m holding out belief that the Mariners have been putting up a smokescreen all offseason and will still do something big that might, you know, make the team better. Because all president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has done so far is essentially shuffle around players and salaries without improving the team (except perhaps for Mitch Garver at DH). He has at least created a little more flexibility for future payrolls with the Robbie Ray-for-Mitch Haniger/Anthony DeSclafani trade.
And while the Mariners cry poor, their payroll remains about $8 million below last year’s — and Snell wants to pitch for his hometown team. He raised the 12th Man flag at a Seahawks game. He was at the college football national championship game in University of Washington gear. He grew up idolizing Ken Griffey Jr. How can they make it happen? They’ll have to go higher than last year’s payroll — god forbid — but they can backload Snell’s contract and give him a lower salary for 2024. The rotation would be Snell, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller, with DeSclafani and Bryan Woo in reserve. That’s how you can topple the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros.
Kiley McDaniel: Blake Snell will sign a three-year deal
I could be very bold and try to guess the exact terms, but I’m sure Boras will shoot for a specific goal that I’m not aware of; let’s say an average annual value record, via some combination of convoluted opt-outs, options and front/back-loading. The suspicion entering the offseason is that Snell would get something like last winter’s Carlos Rodon deal — six years, $162 million — and after the Philadelphia Phillies (a rumored Snell landing spot) signed Aaron Nola, buzz has been building that Snell will be the big-ticket pitcher left when the music stops.
I’d imagine the idea from Snell’s camp would be to get something like three years, $105 million with an opt-out or two, but guaranteed money if things go sideways. That would give Snell a top-10 all-time AAV and a chance to hit the market whenever he wants, which saves face enough for a two-time Cy Young winner relative to expectations.
The Giants and Red Sox are the only two teams with any kind of buzz around Snell and both seem to be trying to fill their pitching needs without Snell in the same way the New York Yankees filled their outfield needs, so that Boras couldn’t leverage their need into overpaying Bellinger. The Yankees could use another starter, but Snell smells a whole lot like Rodon in the worst possible ways. You could invent a few landing spots, but there isn’t a natural one, especially with Dylan Cease and Marcus Stroman available for what might be more reasonable prices. I think Montgomery goes back to Texas for nine figures and that makes the Snell puzzle hard to solve, which is how I’ve landed here.
Trades
Paul Hembekides: The Mets will trade Pete Alonso entering his contract year
I know, I know. Alonso is as beloved as any Met since David Wright and possesses near-unprecedented power (his 192 home runs through five seasons have him tied for third all time). But there’s a new sheriff in town and his name is David Stearns. In his eight seasons as Brewers GM, Milwaukee used seven different Opening Day first basemen, including Ryan Braun (2018) and Keston Hiura (2021), both of whom converted to the position. In other words, Stearns has never prioritized first base. Unless owner Steve Cohen intervenes, Stearns will be more inclined to trade Alonso than extend him, capitalizing on a market devoid of bats like his.
Bradford Doolittle: The Dodgers will trade for Dylan Cease
In reality, I’m not sure how bold of a prediction this is, since the Dodgers acquire whomever they want. For me, this trade match makes the most sense from the White Sox’s perspective among the teams most rumored to be in the mix for Cease. My conception of the deal would be centered around infielder Michael Busch. He’s too good a prospect to be called superfluous, even on the Dodgers’ organization depth chart, but he’s also 26 years old with no clear path to everyday playing time in L.A. With the White Sox, he’s the right-now everyday second baseman and long-term double-play partner with Colson Montgomery, or perhaps an eventual replacement for Yoan Moncada at third. It really depends on how — or if — Busch develops defensively, but his bat is good enough to play anywhere. The Dodgers can square the valuation for Cease’s two seasons of team control by adding a quality young starter and a catching or outfield prospect. I just don’t see another club as able to comfortably meet Chicago’s needs.
Bonus Red Sox prediction
Buster Olney: The Red Sox will do something aggressive and expensive
Red Sox chairman Tom Werner told reporters his team was ready to go “full throttle” at the time they hired Craig Breslow, and while Boston’s longshot attempt to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto didn’t work out, there are plenty of other investment opportunities available, from Snell to Montgomery to a possible trade for Cease. If the Red Sox don’t do something big, Werner’s words will become the backbone narrative of their 2024 season. If they struggle to contend in a tough AL East — as expected — then Breslow’s launch in his new job will be sabotaged; as manager Alex Cora’s contract drifts toward expiration, the team will again be giving away tickets to college students in September. The Red Sox will make a big move for the same reason they spent huge dollars on Rafael Devers: They have no choice.
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Mark Schlabach, ESPN Senior Writer
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Alabama blew a 28-point lead against No. 2 Georgia at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday night.
And then the No. 4 Crimson Tide broke the Bulldogs’ hearts again in a 41-34 victory in which the SEC heavyweights scored touchdowns on consecutive plays from scrimmage late in the fourth quarter.
Alabama didn’t seal the victory until cornerback Zabien Brown intercepted quarterback Carson Beck‘s pass to receiver Colbie Young in the end zone with 43 seconds left to end Georgia’s furious rally.
After the Bulldogs rallied from a 23-point deficit at halftime, they took their first lead on Beck’s 67-yard touchdown to Dillon Bell to make it 34-33 with 2:31 to go.
But Alabama scored on its very next play from scrimmage. On first-and-10 from the Crimson Tide 25, quarterback Jalen Milroe threw a deep ball down the right sideline for freshman Ryan Williams. The receiver spun out of cornerback Julian Humphrey‘s tackle at the 8-yard line and beat safety KJ Bolden for a 75-yard touchdown with 2:18 remaining. Milroe threw a 2-point conversion to receiver Germie Bernard to give Alabama a 41-34 lead.
Milroe completed 27 of 33 passes for 374 yards with two touchdowns and ran for 117 yards with two scores. He is the first player in FBS history with 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns against an AP top-five opponent, according to ESPN Research.
Williams, a 17-year-old freshman, had six catches for 177 yards with one score.
Beck recovered from a slow start to complete 27 of 50 passes for 439 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions. He also lost a fumble and was sacked three times.
The loss ended Georgia’s 42-game winning streak in the regular season, which was the longest run by an FBS team since Oklahoma won 45 in a row from 1953 to 1957. It also snapped Georgia’s 16-game winning streak on the road.
It was new Tide coach Kalen DeBoer’s first meeting with Georgia, but the results were the same for Alabama. It has won nine of its past 10 games against Georgia, including a 27-24 victory in last year’s SEC championship game, which led to the Bulldogs failing to make the College Football Playoff.
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Dave Wilson, ESPN Staff Writer
AUSTIN, Texas — No. 1 Texas got its first SEC win behind the arm of Arch Manning, who helped the Longhorns overcome a slow start and some self-inflicted setbacks to beat Mississippi State 35-13 on Saturday.
Manning was 26-of-31 for 324 yards and two touchdowns and added 33 rushing yards and another score, despite Johntay Cook II dropping a wide-open touchdown pass that would’ve added another 62 passing yards in the second quarter. A week after throwing two interceptions in his first start against UL Monroe, Manning said he felt more relaxed.
“I think last week I didn’t have as much fun as I wanted to,” Manning said. “I think I had a little bit more fun today even though it was a little rocky.”
It was rocky because running back Jaydon Blue lost two fumbles — one in the red zone — Cook dropped a touchdown and there were eight penalties on the Texas offense. Coach Steve Sarkisian criticized himself for kicking a field goal, then going for it on fourth down after a defensive penalty gave the Longhorns another chance. Texas failed to convert, taking three points off the board.
The Longhorns went into halftime with a 14-6 lead, with Mississippi State running a ground-heavy approach behind true freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. The Bulldogs ran 73 plays on the night to Texas’ 62, but the Longhorns outgained them 522 yards to 294. There were also 17 penalties in the game, many with lengthy reviews.
“It was hard for the game to get a rhythm to it,” Sarkisian said.
But he was pleased that the Longhorns navigated this stretch of the season and Quinn Ewers‘ injury to start 5-0. It’s the second straight season Texas has started 5-0, marking just the second time in the past 50 years the Longhorns have done it in back-to-back years. Texas has an off week coming up, followed by the Red River Rivalry in Dallas against Oklahoma, before Georgia comes to Austin the following week.
Sarkisian said the Longhorns showed poise, and he was pleased they were able to survive their first SEC challenge while letting Ewers recover from a strained oblique injury without having to rush him back.
“We need Quinn back because he’s our quarterback and he’s our leader,” Sarkisian said. “I think that impacts the entire team and belief, but what I think we learned and what Arch learned here over the last 2½ games is this team can count on him too.”
Manning said he’s ready for Ewers’ return whenever that might be.
“I think Quinn’s proved himself,” Manning said. “I mean, he led us to the Sugar Bowl last year and he’s played really well this year, so this is his team. I think he’s going to come back and play really well, but I’ll be ready for when my number’s called if they need me. So we’re just going to try and keep this thing rolling.”
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Max Olson, ESPN Staff Writer
LAS VEGAS — UNLV made a statement Saturday in its first game without former starting quarterback Matthew Sluka: The Rebels are going to be just fine.
Rolling to a dominant 59-14 win over Fresno State and moving to 4-0, UNLV proved it will be a contender in the Mountain West Conference race regardless of its quarterback change.
Hajj-Malik Williams threw for 182 yards, rushed for 119 yards and accounted for four total touchdowns in his first start for the Rebels after Sluka opted to leave the program Wednesday over a dispute about his NIL compensation.
“It was business as usual,” UNLV coach Barry Odom said. “We’ve got a very mature team. … Our players, we’ve got strong leadership. They understand the mission that we’re on and they got it done.”
Williams, a sixth-year senior and FCS transfer from Campbell, joined the Rebels in January and lost a close competition with Sluka in fall camp. The 24-year-old quarterback played in 41 games at Campbell, leaving as the program’s career leader in passing yards and touchdowns, and was ready for his opportunity.
“I thought he was effective, I thought he was efficient,” Odom said. “I thought the offensive line did a tremendous job protecting him. I thought the receivers ran great routes. I thought the runners ran hard. We played well as an offense.”
UNLV wide receiver Ricky White III led the Rebels with a season-high 10 catches for 127 yards and two touchdowns and said the quarterback change was “definitely good for us.”
“He’s just a great quarterback that us, as an offense, we can rally behind and just go by his pace,” White said.
After starting three games for UNLV, Sluka opted to redshirt and was expected to enter the transfer portal in December. Sluka’s father and agent have alleged he was verbally promised $100,000 by UNLV offensive coordinator Brennan Marion during his recruitment but received only $3,000 from the school’s NIL collective. UNLV said in a statement that Sluka’s representatives made financial demands for him to keep playing that it interpreted as “a violation of NCAA pay-for-play rules, as well as Nevada state law.”
Odom read from a prepared statement during his postgame news conference and did not take questions regarding Sluka. He said UNLV complied with applicable rules and was committed to the development and success of every player in the program.
“Many have expressed very strong opinions about the events of last week without full knowledge of the facts, without full knowledge of the events of last week and without full knowledge of the rules in the ever-changing, evolving NIL system,” Odom said. “And regrettably, some have even used this circumstance as a platform for their own agendas. I respect everyone’s right to an opinion, and I won’t comment on others’ opinions or their motivations for expressing them.”
White also had a message for Circa Sports CEO Derek Stevens after the Vegas casino expressed interest in offering $100,000 to keep Sluka on the team, telling the Las Vegas Review-Journal that doing so would be worth it “to keep the Rebels’ playoff hopes alive.”
“I would ask that somebody reach out to the Circa CEO and ask him, with that $100,000 that he wanted to donate, give it to our O-line please,” White said.
The Rebels ended a six-game losing streak against Fresno State and achieved the program’s first 4-0 start since 1976 with a strong day in all three phases of the game. Their defense produced four interceptions and four sacks while giving up only 30 rushing yards, and their special teams delivered a blocked punt that White returned for a touchdown in the first quarter plus a 90-yard kickoff return touchdown by Jai’Den Thomas in the fourth quarter.
The victory kept UNLV in the race for the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff and concluded a chaotic week for an athletic department that was simultaneously dealing with the latest round of conference realignment in college athletics.
UNLV officially decided to remain in the Mountain West on Thursday, turning down a move to the Pac-12 following that league’s addition of Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State for 2026. The seven remaining schools in the Mountain West agreed to a grant of rights that will bind them to the conference through 2031-32.
After already defeating Big 12 members Houston and Kansas in nonconference play, UNLV gets one more opportunity to take down a Power 4 opponent and strengthen its CFP résumé when it hosts 3-1 Syracuse on Friday.
“Our guys will flip the page really quickly,” Odom said. “I could tell in the locker room we’re ready to do that and get on to the next game.”
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