Who’s getting into the Hall of Fame on Tuesday? Everything you need to know on ballot reveal day
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David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer
The Baseball Writers’ Association of America portion of the Hall of Fame election will be announced at 6 p.m. ET Tuesday, with one surefire candidate who will get in, several players who are going to be really close and a few others hoping to make progress to the 75% threshold required.
We have you covered for everything to know on ballot reveal day. Let’s break down a few items to look for in the voting results.
One important note: Current listed percentages are from the Hall of Fame tracker website, which monitors all publicly revealed ballots, through 7 a.m. ET. Keep in mind that vote percentages almost always decrease — sometimes significantly — once the private ballots and post-result public ballots are officially added to the tabulation.
As an example, last year Todd Helton received 78.6% of the pre-result public ballots but just 61.8% of the private vote, and he finished a few votes short overall at 74.5%. Billy Wagner received 72.3% of the pre-result public vote but just 52.9% of the private ballots for a total of 68%. So, just because a player is currently above 75% doesn’t mean he’s a lock to get in.
Will Adrian Beltre get the highest vote percentage ever for a third baseman?
Beltre will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and I’m happy to report that (for the most part) the exasperating “He’s not a first-ballot Hall of Famer” mindset barely exists anymore. Still, of the public ballots so far, two voters didn’t vote for Beltre. I can’t imagine having a ballot and not voting for Beltre, given his lifetime numbers: 3,166 hits, 477 home runs, 1,707 RBIs and five Gold Gloves.
Yet some still believe the Hall of Fame is only for the elite of the elite. As Bill James once wrote, “The Ted Williams/Bob Gibson/Honus Wagner standard for Hall of Fame selection has never existed anywhere except in the imaginations of people who don’t know anything about the subject.”
The highest percentages among third basemen:
1. George Brett, 98.2% (488/497)
2. Chipper Jones, 97.2% (410/422)
3. Mike Schmidt, 96.5% (444/460)
I’d certainly take peak Brett or Schmidt over Beltre (and maybe Chipper as well), but Beltre looks as if he might eclipse Brett’s percentage.
Will Joe Mauer also be a first-ballot Hall of Famer?
Mauer is polling at 83.5% — much higher than I would have expected given he spent just nine full seasons as a catcher and has meager career counting stats for a first-ballot selection (143 home runs, 923 RBIs, 2,123 hits). He would need to receive an estimated 67% of the remaining ballots to get in, which is an improvement from a few days ago when he needed 69%. The private voters generally vote for fewer candidates, and Mauer probably doesn’t fall into their “only the obvious guys” philosophy — even if his high peak value and top-10 all-time standing among catchers in WAR warrants strong consideration — but I now think he’s going to just squeeze past that 75% mark.
Will Helton get those few extra votes he needs?
After falling 11 votes short in 2023 on his fifth year on the ballot, Helton is currently polling at 82.0% — a small uptick from his pre-result total last year when, as mentioned, he was at 78.6%. If he declines the same 6.4% as last year, that leaves him at 75.4% — and elected to the Hall of Fame. That’s not much room to spare, but it looks as if he’ll squeeze in, a reward for an incredible level of peak performance from 1999 to 2004, when he averaged .344 with 37 home runs, 48 doubles and 121 RBIs per season.
Billy Wagner and Gary Sheffield are both nearing the end of their ballot eligibility — will either get in this year?
Wagner is on his ninth year on the ballot, and Sheffield is on his 10th and final ballot. Wagner finished at 68% last year and is currently polling at 78.0%. What’s interesting about him, however, is that his final vote total last year dropped only 4.2% from the pre-results total. The private ballots gave him only a little more than half their support, but the public ballots that were revealed only after the results were announced gave him nearly 70%. It looks as if it might come down to one or two votes either way for him.
At least Wagner would still have one more year on the ballot. This is it for Sheffield, who is at 75.0%, and that still means it’s almost certain he’s not going to get in. It’s not exactly clear why Sheffield has failed to gain election when his hitting numbers merit it. It could be his connection to Barry Bonds and the Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative (BALCO), his vagabond career, or maybe the crowded ballot early on that delayed his momentum. Anyway, the private voters are unlikely to push him over the top to get into the Hall of Fame via the BBWAA vote — and when Sheffield eventually appears on one of the era committee ballots down the road, it will be interesting to see whether he’ll be grouped alongside Bonds, Roger Clemens and Mark McGwire.
How much will strong defensive metrics help Andruw Jones and Chase Utley?
I’m grouping these two together because both of their cases to a large extent depend on the fielding metrics used at Baseballl-Reference.com, where Jones is rated as the best center fielder of all time (which matches his reputation) and Utley is rated as one of the best second basemen of all time (which wasn’t his reputation while active). Jones is now on his seventh ballot and should get past 60% this year, and that’s a strong sign that he’ll get in over the next three ballots. Utley is polling at 40%, a decent starting spot for a first ballot. If Helton gets in, that could help Utley as well, as both had similar high-peak/low-volume careers.
How much will Carlos Beltran’s percentage increase?
Beltran is kind of in his own class as a candidate: He has a strong analytical case (70.1 career WAR), although he wasn’t necessarily a player who fit snugly into that vague and undefined “feels like a Hall of Famer” category while active. He was never going to be a first-ballot guy, but maybe somebody who makes it after four or five chances. Then came the Houston Astros cheating scandal. Would he be treated like the performance-enhancing drugs guys? Last year, his first on the ballot, he received 47.4%. He’s polling at 66.0%, about 13% higher than his early results last year, so it appears some voters simply gave him a one-year punishment. If he finishes at a significantly higher percentage than 47% overall, we can assume he’s back on track to get elected.
Are Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez still on the ballot?
Yes, they are.
Are they even close to getting in?
No, they are not.
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Dan Wetzel
Week 0 is college football’s oft-ignored start to the season. The good stuff doesn’t generally happen until the smorgasbord of Labor Day weekend.
This year, though, it begins with a unique bang. Consider that, right now in some Dublin pub, two fan bases from Middle America are likely baffling locals by arguing not merely over their teams but the per-acre yields of wheat vs. corn.
It’s Iowa State and Kansas State to kick things off — in Ireland no less.
It’s Farmageddon on the old sod, or Farm O’Geddon, as some have dubbed it this year.
The rural-rooted and wonderfully self-aware rivalry is getting a rare but well-deserved turn in the spotlight.
These are two proud and solid programs. Both are nationally ranked. The Wildcats check in at No. 17, and the Cyclones at 22. It’s a Big 12 game with conference title and national playoff implications.
“It’s certainly a great opportunity, and we certainly feel honored to be able to be a part of it,” Iowa State coach Matt Campbell said.
It’s also a reminder of how, even when college football is doing something well, the sport’s self-destructive ways can hang over everything.
This is the 109th consecutive meeting between these two schools, a run that dates to 1917.
Yet in 2027, there will be no scheduled game; Farmageddon’s streak will be a casualty of conference realignment.
The series predates the old Big Eight, which is now called the Big 12 even though it has 16 members, complicating everything. Trying to manage a schedule in a league that large is a massive challenge. The conference relies on what it calls a “scheduling matrix” to get it done.
The Big 12 chose just four long-standing rivalries to be “protected” and thus forced into the matrix each season: Arizona-Arizona State, BYU-Utah, Baylor-TCU and Kansas State-Kansas.
Those make sense — each is an intense, in-state clash. K-State would rather assure a game against Kansas than Iowa State, just as Iowa State wants to make sure it plays Iowa, of the Big Ten, each year in nonconference play.
Scheduling is tough. Sometimes something has to give.
Still, Farmageddon’s run of games is longer than Texas-Oklahoma, Michigan-Ohio State and the Iron Bowl between Alabama and Auburn. While Iowa State-Kansas State will be played again in future seasons, any break feels unfortunate.
Obviously, the rivalry isn’t nearly as storied as those. Both teams have endured lengthy periods where even mediocrity would have been welcomed. Still, there is something endearing about tradition. It isn’t just for the winners.
The strength of college football isn’t the blue bloods, or at least it isn’t solely in the blue bloods. Yes, the powerhouse teams drive the boat and command the television ratings. Every sport has that, though.
What college football has is everything else, everywhere else. The nation’s 136 FBS-level programs hail from more than 40 states. They are in big cities and tiny towns. There are big state schools and small private ones, religious institutions and military academies. Not everyone expects a national title. Or even a conference one.
This is an American creation that represents America in the broadest sense. That is: None of it makes sense except all of it makes sense. The passion. The pageantry. The pride.
That includes these weird neighborhood rivalries. Leagues were once formed because of familiarity or cultural commonality. You went to one school, your neighbor another. The geographic footprint mattered. Now it’s all about media rights and money.
The Big Ten has 18 teams. The Atlantic Coast Conference has two schools overlooking the Pacific Ocean. And the Big 12 is so big that the Kansas State-Iowa State rivalry — which survived world wars, droughts and depressions — can be brushed to the side.
Saturday’s game is a showcase for what needs to be maintained against the avalanche of money. It’s old-school stuff featuring two programs with reasonable expectations that mostly just want a taste of the big time and all the fun that comes with it.
So they’ve invested in it — as institutions and individuals. Try explaining to some Irishman that the 50,000-seat Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium in the Little Apple of Manhattan, Kansas, is larger than any sporting venue in the Big Apple of Manhattan, New York.
Or that Iowa State running back Abu Sama III is already a school legend for racking up 276 yards and scoring four touchdowns during a winter storm in 2023 at Kansas State.
That game will be forever known as Snowmageddon.
The tradition continues in Ireland, of all places, now with everyone watching. It’s a fitting moment for an overlooked series. It’s also a reminder to appreciate what this sport can produce, because even the good stuff isn’t necessarily safe.
MILWAUKEE — Milwaukee’s Joey Ortiz went on the 10-day injured list with a strained left hamstring Friday, leaving the NL Central-leading Brewers without their starting shortstop.
The Brewers also reinstated first baseman/outfielder Jake Bauers from the injured list and sent outfielder Jackson Chourio to a rehabilitation assignment with Triple-A Nashville.
Ortiz left a 4-1 victory over the Chicago Cubs on Thursday after hurting himself while grounding out in the fifth inning. Manager Pat Murphy said he has been told it’s a low-grade strain, an indication that Ortiz’s stay on the IL might not be too long.
Ortiz, 27, is hitting .233 with seven homers, 43 RBIs and 11 steals in 125 games. He has batted .343 with an .830 OPS in August.
“I felt like I was finally kind of getting a groove going, especially offensively, that I was starting to swing the bat as I feel I can,” Ortiz said. “Things happen. It’s baseball. It’s going to happen. I’ve just got to do what I can to get back.”
Murphy said Andruw Monasterio will be the Brewers’ primary shortstop while Ortiz is out. Monasterio, 28, has hit .254 with two homers and 11 RBIs in 43 games.
Bauers, 29, was dealing with a left shoulder impingement and last played in the majors on July 18. Bauers is hitting .197 with five homers and 18 RBIs in 59 games. He had gone just 2-for-23 in July while dealing with the shoulder issue before finally going on the injured list.
“Since April, May, I’ve been dealing with it,” Bauers said.
Chourio, 21, hasn’t played since straining his right hamstring while running out a triple in a 9-3 victory over the Cubs on July 29.
“He’s got to be able to get comfortable standing on the diamond back-to-back days,” Murphy said. “He’s got to be comfortable playing all nine (innings) in the outfield back-to-back days, because you can’t bring him back here and then just [go] zero to 100.”
Chourio is hitting .276 with 17 homers, 67 RBIs and 18 steals in 106 games.
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