Connect with us

Published

on

The 2024 Baseball Writers’ Association of America vote is in — and Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer and Todd Helton are the newest members of the Baseball Hall of Fame. Billy Wagner fell just five votes short of the 75% threshold for enshrinement. The three new Hall of Famers will join Jim Leyland, who was elected in December by the contemporary baseball era committee, in Cooperstown in July.

ESPN MLB experts Buster Olney, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and Jesse Rogers break down what the 2024 vote means, and look ahead to what the future holds for this year’s candidates — and those joining the ballot in 2025.

Let’s get into it.


Besides the three elected, who is the biggest winner on this year’s ballot?

Olney: In Andruw Jones’ first year on the ballot, he polled at 7.3%, barely qualifying for a second try — and in Year 2, he scored 7.5%. But in recent years, he has gained momentum and now seems on the cusp of election, with his voting percentage soaring to 61.6% in his seventh year of eligibility. He seems to be benefitting from next-level analytics, with voters finally crediting him for his game-changing defense. That shift could make it inevitable he’ll make a speech in Cooperstown.

Rogers: Just a year ago, Carlos Beltran looked to be somewhat of a question mark — now, after receiving 57.1% of votes this year, he seems a near lock, considering he has eight more chances to be enshrined. His poor showing last year could have been voters doling out a minor punishment for his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal — but in the end, he’ll be a Hall of Famer. It just might take a few more tries.

Doolittle: Tough to pick one between Beltran and Jones, so I’ll cop out and call it a stalemate. Both picked up enough support that given their trajectories and the years they have left on the ballot, they seem close to lock status. The uncertainty around Beltran has cleared up after just two cycles on the ballot, which for me is a bit of a surprise. I thought he’d be cast into limbo land for longer than this, but now I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get in next year.

Gonzalez: This probably won’t make him feel any better, but I look at Wagner falling just five votes shy of induction as a win for him. He’s got one year left of eligibility on the BBWAA ballot, and one would think he’ll be able to make up that gap given how voters tend to rally around players who are close to falling off. Wagner has gained an average of 40 votes over the past six years. It would be shocking if he didn’t get in next year.


Who is the biggest loser from this year’s voting results?

Olney: By all statistical measures — other than the writers’ voting percentage of 63.9% — Gary Sheffield is a Hall of Famer. But after failing to gain election in his final year on the ballot, Sheffield now gets thrown into HOF purgatory; his only chance is to wait for selection from some special committee years from now. And unfortunately for Sheffield, if he ever gets that honor, he’ll have had to wait for the perspective of committee voters to change. It was little more than a year ago that they rejected Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, who, like Sheffield, have been kept out of the Hall because they were named in the dubious Mitchell report.

Rogers: Oh, it’s definitely Sheffield. Yes, he was mentioned in the Mitchell report, but he was never suspended for a failed test — and that’s an important distinction to me. Call me old-school, but I’m all for one of the last great players to walk (1,475) more than strike out (1,171) getting in. Add his 509 home runs and 253 stolen bases to his résumé, and Sheffield did it all. His increased percentage from 55% last year to 63.9% in 2024 was nice, but voters need to take a closer look during a player’s final year of eligibility. Not enough of them did.

Doolittle: Sheffield is the obvious pick, but in a way, getting off the BBWAA ballot at least is a chance for him to move on. I personally think he’ll do well when his case comes in front of an era committee. But just to add a different name here, I’ll go with Andy Pettitte. I really thought his support would start to tick upward. I didn’t think he was likely to get in, but I thought he had a larger base of support than this.

Gonzalez: The following eight players, all in their first year of eligibility, received less than the 5% support required to remain on the ballot: Jose Bautista, Victor Martinez, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, Adrian Gonzalez, Brandon Phillips, Jose Reyes and James Shields. None of them are Hall of Famers, of course. But the weeks leading up to the results presents an opportunity for us to celebrate players we otherwise might not take the time to remember. We’ll miss that with those guys. David Wright, however, barely advanced into Year 2 with 6.2% support.


What is one trend that stands out to you from this year’s voting totals?

Olney: During Beltré’s career, he collected more than 3,000 hits, nearly 500 homers, five Gold Glove Awards and consistent MVP consideration over the decades he played. Beyond his production, he had an excellent reputation as a teammate. If there is a legitimate reason to not vote for him, well, we haven’t heard it. But somehow, 19 writers decided to not include him on their ballot — just as some writers decided not to vote for Ken Griffey Jr. and Derek Jeter. Maybe Mariano Rivera will be the first and last unanimous selection.

Rogers: It’s the continuation of a decades-long trend for the Hall: Players can easily get in on their first try, but doing so unanimously is a different story. Would the 4.9% of voters who didn’t think Beltré deserved the honor have voted for him next year? Or the year after? It kind of defies logic — unless those voters simply don’t believe he deserves it at all, which would also make little sense.

Doolittle: David Wright got very little support, though, thankfully, he received enough votes to remain on the ballot. I don’t know that he’s a Hall of Famer, but it’s not that hard to build a case for him. If you look at what he did in his first 10 seasons, there are very few players who have been left out of the Hall who produced what he did (at least once you cross off active players, those still on the ballot and those left out for nonplaying reasons). We’re still not focusing enough on the number of high-quality seasons someone like Wright put up and too much on compilation.

Gonzalez: Rodriguez has made virtually no progress in his three years on the ballot, going from 34.3% to 35.7% to, this year, 34.8%. Manny Ramirez began with 23.8% in 2017 and got up to only 33.2% in 2023, then dropped to 32.5% in 2024. Ramirez is one of the best right-handed hitters of his era; A-Rod is one of the greatest all-around players in the sport’s history. But their ties to PEDs won’t get them even close to the Hall. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens broke 60% in their final year of eligibility. I don’t see A-Rod or Ramirez even approaching that.


Which one player’s vote total is most surprising to you?

Olney: Beltran’s big spike is our first real indication of how some voters will treat those linked to the Houston Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. If Beltran was nailed with some first-ballot demerits, it wouldn’t be the first time — so was Roberto Alomar because of his spitting incident with umpire John Hirschbeck. Alomar was elected in his second year on the ballot, and Beltran seems to be trending strongly toward election in the next two or three years.

Rogers: Alex Rodriguez. With so much uncertainty about how to handle the steroid era, I’m surprised someone who has failed tests and has suspensions on his record is getting even 34% of the vote. That total hasn’t changed much from what he got last year or the year before, though, so it’s clear about a third of voters are in one category in this debate; two-thirds believe he should not be in the Hall of Fame.

Doolittle: I don’t know that it’s a major surprise, but I thought Chase Utley would do a little better than 28.8% on his first trip through the process. He’s not in a bad spot, though, and I expect his momentum to uptick quickly from here.

Gonzalez: Bobby Abreu polled at 14.8% in his fifth year on the ballot and I continue to be miffed by him not getting much support, especially in an era when we place so much more value on on-base percentage. Abreu did literally everything. He was a great defender with the power to win a Home Run Derby and the speed to accumulate 400 stolen bases, but he was also one of the most skilled, discerning hitters of his time. He batted in the .300s six times, reached 20 homers nine times and drew at least 100 walks in eight consecutive seasons. He was also incredibly durable, playing in at least 151 games 13 times. The counting numbers might not jump off the page, but he deserves a closer look.


Based on this year’s results, who do you think will get in on next year’s ballot?

Olney: The Class of 2025 might turn out to be enormous. Ichiro Suzuki should be a unanimous selection, of course — how could you not vote for him? Wagner, who fell just short this year, Jones and Beltran are within range of election, as well, and CC Sabathia could get the call in his first year on the ballot. Think about this: Sabathia finished his career with 61.8 WAR, which puts him in the same statistical neighborhood as Juan Marichal, Don Drysdale, Dennis Eckersley and Jim Bunning — all HOFers.

Rogers: Wagner has been inching toward enshrinement, and his final year of eligibility, 2025, will help push him over the top after he received 73.8% of the vote this time around. Wagner’s reputation fits with the relievers who have already gone into the Hall. Back in 2016, he was hovering at about 10%, so it has been a long, slow climb. But where you start should have no bearing on your finish. Voters nearly got him over the hump these past two years; 2025 will be his time.

Doolittle: Ichiro is a no-doubter, and I think Jones and Beltran will get over the top. I say Wagner finally gets in after nine misses. A really interesting candidate will be CC Sabathia, whose case might say a lot about the standards we will consider for Hall of Famer starters in the future. I think he’s in, with the only question being whether or not his “first ballot” status hinders him. And if that’s our class, with the U.S., Curacao, Puerto Rico and Japan all represented, Cooperstown will be a fun place to be in July 2025.

Gonzalez: I can see as many as five getting in next year: Ichiro, Sabathia, Wagner, Jones and Beltran. Here’s the thing, though: It has never happened. The BBWAA has never voted in that many. And it voted in four players on only five occasions — 1947, 1955, 2015, 2018 and 2019. Edgar Martinez didn’t get in in 2018; Mike Piazza and Hank Greenberg were snubbed in 2015 and 1955, respectively. Of the aforementioned five players, I see Ichiro and Wagner as certainties, with Sabathia, Jones and Beltran ultimately being close.

Continue Reading

Sports

Ichiro wants to have drink with lone HOF holdout

Published

on

By

Ichiro wants to have drink with lone HOF holdout

COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. — Ichiro Suzuki wants to raise a glass with the voter who chose not to check off his name on the Hall of Fame ballot.

“There’s one writer that I wasn’t able to get a vote from,” he said through an interpreter Thursday, two days after receiving 393 of 394 votes from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. “I would like to invite him over to my house, and we’ll have a drink together, and we’ll have a good chat.”

Suzuki had been to the Hall seven times before attending a news conference Thursday with fellow electees CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner. The trio will be inducted July 27 along with Dave Parker and Dick Allen, voted in last month by the classic era committee.

Suzuki struggled to process being the first player from Japan elected to the Hall.

“Maybe five, 10 years from now I could look back and maybe we’ll be able to say this is what it meant,” he said.

BBWAA secretary-treasurer Jack O’Connell recalled Suzuki was at the Hall in 2001 when he called to inform the Seattle star he had been voted American League Rookie of the Year. Suzuki received 27 of 28 first-place votes, all but one from an Ohio writer who selected Sabathia.

“He stole my Rookie of the Year,” Sabathia said playfully.

Sabathia remembered a game at Safeco Field on July 30, 2005. He had worked with Cleveland pitching coach Carl Willis in a bullpen session on a pitch he could throw to retire Suzuki, which turned out to be a slider.

“I get two strikes on Ichi and he hits it off the window,” Sabathia said of the 428-foot drive off the second-deck restaurant in right field, at the time the longest home run of Suzuki’s big league career. “Come back around his next at-bat, throw it to him again, first pitch he hits it out again.”

Suzuki’s second home run broke a sixth-inning tie in the Mariners’ 3-2 win.

As the trio discussed their favorite memorabilia, Suzuki mentioned a mock-up Hall of Fame plaque the Hall had created — not a design for the real one — that included his dog, Ikkyu.

“Our dog and then Bob Feller’s cat are the only animals to have the Hall of Fame plaque. That is something that I cherish,” Suzuki said, referring to a mock-up with the pitcher’s cat, Felix.

Sabathia helped the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2009 after agreeing to a $161 million, seven-year contract as a free agent. Sabathia started his big league career in Cleveland, finished the 2008 season in Milwaukee and was apprehensive about signing with the Yankees before he was persuaded by general manager Brian Cashman.

“Going into the offseason, I just heard all of the stuff that was going on, the turmoil in the Yankees clubhouse,” Sabathia said. “Pretty quick, like two or three days into spring training, me and Andy [Pettitte] are running in the outfield, I get a chance to meet [Derek] Jeter, we’re hanging out, and the pitching staff, we’re going to dinners, we’re going to basketball games together. So it didn’t take long at all before I felt like this was the right decision.”

Sabathia was on 342 ballots and Wagner on 325 (82.5%), which was 29 votes more than the 296 needed for the required 75%. While Suzuki and Sabathia were elected in their first ballot appearance, Wagner was voted in on his 10th and final try with the writers.

Even two days after learning of his election, Wagner had tears streaming down his cheeks when he thought back to the call. His face turned red.

“It’s humbling,” he said, his voice quavering before he paused. “I don’t know if it’s deserving, but to sit out 10 years and have your career scrutinized and stuff, it’s tough.”

Wagner, who is 5-foot-10, became the first left-hander elected to the Hall who was primarily a reliever. He thought of the words of 5-foot-11 right-hander Pedro Martínez, voted to Cooperstown in 2015.

“I hope kids around see that there is a chance that you can get here and it is possible, that size and where you’re from doesn’t matter,” Wagner said. “I think Pedro said it first, but if I can get here, anyone can get here.”

Continue Reading

Sports

Braves sign outfielder Profar to 3-year, $42M deal

Published

on

By

Braves sign outfielder Profar to 3-year, M deal

Outfielder Jurickson Profar and the Atlanta Braves agreed on a three-year, $42 million contract Thursday, uniting the veteran coming off a career year with a team that has struggled in recent years to find a suitable left fielder.

Profar, 31, was a revelation for the San Diego Padres last year, hitting .280/.380/.459 with a career-high 24 home runs and 85 RBIs. Once the top prospect in all of baseball, Profar made his first All-Star team and won a Silver Slugger — all on a one-year, $1 million deal.

He cashed in with the Braves, who outbid a number of teams interested in Profar’s on-base skills as well as his energy that invigorated Padres supporters and infuriated rival fan bases.

Profar will join center fielder Michael Harris II and right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr., the former National League MVP coming off a torn left ACL just three years after tearing the ligament in his right knee. Without Acuña for most of last season, the Braves’ offense suffered a deep regression from 2023, when they set a single-season team record with a .501 slugging percentage.

The switch-hitting Profar can slot almost anywhere in the lineup, though he figures to begin the season toward the top as Acuña continues to rehab his knee. Beyond Harris and Acuña, Atlanta’s lineup includes All-Star third baseman Austin Riley, second baseman Ozzie Albies and first baseman Matt Olson. Profar will receive $12 million this year and $15 million in 2026 and 2027.

Atlanta is typically one of the most aggressive teams in baseball, striking early in free agency and with trades. After trading slugger Jorge Soler in late October, the Braves dabbled in minor league deals and watched as starter Max Fried went to the New York Yankees, starter Charlie Morton went to the Baltimore Orioles and reliever A.J. Minter went to the New York Mets.

Profar is Atlanta’s first real addition this winter after sneaking into the postseason at 89-73 and promptly getting swept by San Diego. He has spent all 11 years of his major league career in the West divisions, debuting at 19 with the Texas Rangers. Profar never fulfilled his potential there and went to Oakland in 2019 before settling with the Padres, where he became a full-time outfielder. Over 1,119 games in his career, Profar has hit .245/.331/.395 with 111 home runs and 444 RBIs in 4,291 plate appearances.

Continue Reading

Sports

Are the Dodgers ruining baseball? Inside the Roki Sasaki signing — and a spending spree that has rocked MLB

Published

on

By

Are the Dodgers ruining baseball? Inside the Roki Sasaki signing -- and a spending spree that has rocked MLB

SIX YEARS AGO, when the world knew next to nothing of a gangly 17-year-old pitcher in Japan, a Los Angeles Dodgers evaluator sat in the stands at his high school games with a video camera to capture the splendor. Roki Sasaki’s fastball regularly reached 100 mph, his right arm a whirling force of nature. The Dodgers were smitten. Sasaki could eventually be the best pitcher in the world, team officials told one another. And when the time came for his inevitable move to Major League Baseball, they wanted to ensure he felt as strongly about them as they did him.

In the time since, the Dodgers have conquered baseball in nearly every fashion imaginable. Armed with immense wealth from their owners and buoyed by the largest local television contract in the game, the Dodgers have spared no expense in trying to win. Their major league payroll consistently ranks at the top of the game, yes, but other line items are best-in-class, too, from their technology infrastructure to their coaching staff’s compensation to the quality of the food they serve their minor league players.

When this winter arrived and Sasaki, now 23, declared his intentions to come to MLB, the Dodgers didn’t need a sales pitch because the allure for players is obvious: If you covet winning, come join a burgeoning dynasty. Since being sold to the Guggenheim Baseball Management group in 2012 following the disastrous ownership of Frank McCourt that led the team to file for bankruptcy, the Dodgers have remade themselves into conquerors: of the National League West (11 titles in 12 years), their October demons (two World Series championships in five years), and the Japanese baseball market (the signings of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for more than $1 billion guaranteed).

Every front office pined for the latest Japanese ace this offseason. Eight teams were granted an audience with Sasaki. Three became finalists. The Dodgers were one. The San Diego Padres, Los Angeles’ chief rival in the NL West and another team whose early scouting of Sasaki won favor, were the second. The third came down to the Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees — four other teams whose years of work in Japan and history with Japanese players spoke to an understanding of Sasaki and his desires. The rapport built with Toronto’s international scouting apparatus won the Blue Jays the third finalist slot.

Toronto impressed Sasaki with its answer to a burning question: Why had his sizzling fastball lost velocity in 2024? The explanation from Frank Herrmann, a Blue Jays baseball operations staffer who had pitched in the big leagues and was Sasaki’s teammate with the Chiba Lotte Marines, and Sam Greene, the Blue Jays’ assistant pitching coach, blended a discussion of data, mechanics and feel that boosted their pursuit. Sasaki spent multiple days in Toronto, and as he departed, the Blue Jays were confident that whatever advantages the Dodgers might have, they were surmountable.

The visit to San Diego left the Padres similarly assured. Star third baseman Manny Machado held a gathering at his house, where a Japanese chef cooked familiar cuisine. Jackson Merrill, the Padres’ 21-year-old center fielder expected to blossom into a superstar in coming seasons, attended, as did Ethan Salas, the 18-year-old catcher seen as a linchpin in future seasons. And San Diego had an ace in the hole: Yu Darvish, the progenitor of modern Japanese pitching, whom Sasaki regards as a mentor with peerless knowledge.

The successful meetings put that much more pressure on the Dodgers, who hosted Sasaki Jan. 14 at minority owner Peter Guber’s Bel Air home and summoned an array of players, all locked up to long-term deals: superstars Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, catcher Will Smith, and super-utility man Tommy Edman. Ohtani, knowing Sasaki loves dogs, brought his Dutch kooikerhondje, Decoy, to the presentation.

With the international signing period opening Jan. 15 and the window for Sasaki to sign closing Jan. 23, the decision zone arrived and forced action. All three teams lined up trades to acquire more international bonus money to help their pursuit. San Diego was eliminated first. Toronto, attempting to demonstrate its willingness to go above and beyond for Sasaki, struck a deal with Cleveland to take on $11.75 million remaining on center fielder Myles Straw‘s contract along with an additional $2 million in international money even before Sasaki had made his decision.

Soon thereafter, he did — and it wasn’t the Blue Jays. What so many in baseball saw as a fait accompli — to the point MLB did a preemptive investigation into whether Sasaki had any sort of prearranged deal (and determined he didn’t) — played out. While some teams in meetings asked if Sasaki wanted to be Kevin Durant or Michael Jordan — to join a superteam or help build one — the allure of the Dodgers was impossible to ignore. All of their games are broadcast on national TV in Japan. The stores at Nippon Professional Baseball stadiums that include racks of Dodgers gear will now feature jerseys with his name on them. The Dodgers’ plan when they signed Ohtani — “One of our goals is for baseball fans in Japan to convert to Dodger Blue,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said — had borne fruit.

In executing that vision, the team has set off alarms inside the sport. The Dodgers’ signing of Sasaki for $6.5 million — a sum artificially deflated by MLB’s rules on international amateurs that offers Los Angeles hundreds of millions of dollars in surplus value — left front offices and fans alike gobsmacked. Watching the Dodgers pick off free agent after free agent with heavily deferred deals has built a wave of frustration. Seeing them land one of the most valuable contracts in the game — the sort typically reserved for the worst teams via the draft — reinforced something that has become increasingly clear.

The Dodgers are no longer just a team chasing championships. They are a stress test for the game itself.


THE ANGER — from disillusioned fans, from dispirited front offices, from owners made to look as if they don’t care — is very real. And it’s growing to the point that people at the highest levels of Major League Baseball acknowledge it concerns them. Most worrisome is the rhetoric that fans are done with the game. That what L.A. is doing is unfair. That the financial imbalance ruins the sport.

A villain around which people can rally is tolerable; an unbeatable monolith is not. An exemplar for how teams can operate is instructive; an extinguishing of hope is not. With every transaction pushing the Dodgers further from the former and more toward the latter, MLB faces growing cynicism that has reignited calls for a salary cap — and made collective bargaining discussions set to start a year from now, before the current basic agreement expires following the 2026 season, that much more fraught with peril.

Over the past 13 months, the Dodgers have morphed from a large-market, big-money jewel franchise that spent exceptional sums of money and didn’t have much to show for it into a referendum on the state of MLB in 2025. Because baseball is the last of the major North American professional sports leagues without a salary cap or floor, the difference between the Dodgers — who carry a payroll in the $375 million range — and the next-highest team, the Philadelphia Phillies, is nearly $70 million. That’s to say nothing of the gap between the Dodgers and the 30th-ranked Miami Marlins: around $300 million. The $120 million or so the Dodgers are in line to pay in luxury tax penalties on top of their payroll is more than the projected Opening Day payroll of 10 teams.

In the past 411 days, the Dodgers have:

  • Signed Ohtani to a 10-year, $700 million contract, with $680 million deferred

  • Traded for right-hander Tyler Glasnow and signed him to a five-year, $136.5 million contract extension

  • Signed right-hander Yamamoto to a 12-year, $325 million contract

  • Signed Smith to a 10-year, $140 million contract extension, with $50 million deferred

  • Signed two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell to a five-year, $182 million contract, with $66 million deferred

  • Signed Edman, acquired at the 2024 trade deadline, to a five-year, $74 million contract extension, with $25 million deferred

  • Signed outfielder Michael Conforto to a one-year, $17 million contract

  • Signed reliever Blake Treinen to a two-year, $22 million contract

  • Signed outfielder Teoscar Hernández to a pair of deals totaling $89.5 million over four years, with $32 million deferred

  • Signed Korean infielder Hyeseong Kim to a three-year, $12.5 million contract

  • Signed Sasaki

  • Signed closer Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72 million contract, with $21 million deferred

In total, they have guaranteed $1.778 billion — nearly half of it ($874 million) deferred. For a team that already had Betts and Freeman under contract — a team that over its six previous full seasons won at least 100 games five times — to turn over more than half its roster and add nearly a dozen impact players registered as baseball gluttony.

A day after Sasaki’s signing, Chicago Cubs owner Tom Ricketts told 670 AM in Chicago that “it’s really hard to compete” with the Dodgers. Ricketts bought the Cubs for $845 million in 2009. They are worth around $5 billion now, according to a person who values professional sports franchises. The Cubs, according to Forbes, have the third-highest revenue in MLB, behind the Yankees and Dodgers. They are the epitome of a big-market, high-earning franchise. Ricketts said the Cubs attempt to break even every year. Forbes estimates they have earned more than $585 million before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization over the past decade in addition to the more than $4 billion appreciation of the team.

At the time, the Cubs were attempting to sign Scott, among the most coveted relievers this winter. The next day, with a final offer of four years and $66 million — $6 million shy of where the Dodgers landed — they lost. The $18 million-a-year salary Scott received fell in line with those of other elite closers.

This is not a chicken-and-egg situation. Teams like the Cubs and Boston Red Sox — should-be powerhouses — earn reputations quickly among players by not spending. When franchises show they care about winning, players take note. The flocking of talented players to the Dodgers is not a function of a willingness to overpay. The vast majority of the long-term deals handed out by the Dodgers are market price or club-friendly. Betts’, Freeman’s, Smith’s. Ohtani’s deal — with $68 million of his annual $70 million salary deferred for a decade — was proposed by him to the Dodgers as well as to the other teams that pursued him: Toronto, San Francisco and the Los Angeles Angels.

While the Dodgers are among the rare teams that can carry three $300 million-plus deals (and four other nine-figure pacts on top of that) without bleeding money, they also thrive in the middle market. They took advantage of Ricketts’ unwillingness to push — he has limited the Cubs’ budget this winter, even after trading for Kyle Tucker — and won the bidding for Scott. Any team could have pursued Hernández, whose deal this winter was at market value. Every team passed on signing Snell to a long-term deal in the 2023-24 offseason. Edman was widely available at the trade deadline.

Every MLB club, even those with the lowest revenues, can compete for that sort of talent. So many operate with unbending devotion to their computer models, though, that the simple act of spending has become an even greater advantage for the Dodgers. With a history of teams on limited budgets annually performing among the best in the game, those franchises could fare even better stretching themselves financially and investing in winning, at the very least proportionally to those who devote a higher percentage of revenue to payroll. The Dodgers’ willingness to spend in grand sums and success with it should motivate other teams to keep up, not preclude them from doing so.


THREE DECADES AFTER the longest work stoppage in MLB history, the inequity baked into the game’s financial system remains. MLB’s pursuit of a salary cap in 1994 led to the cancellation of the World Series that year. The rekindling of a cap conversation has already begun — particularly by owners peeved by the Dodgers’ spending and the sheer size of Juan Soto‘s 15-year, $765 million, no-deferred-money deal with the New York Mets. Proposing a cap in next year’s CBA negotiations would be tantamount to a declaration of war by MLB — and already those owners are prepared for commissioner Rob Manfred to lock the players out Dec. 1, 2026.

It’s clear, by now, that the punitive elements the most recent collective bargaining agreement put in place — the luxury tax, the qualifying offer system, draft-pick punishment — are anti-spending measures that just don’t apply to some. The Mets have spent exceptional amounts of money and been OK. The Dodgers clearly see money as a competitive advantage they’re willing to flaunt. There is room to incentivize other teams to spend without having to institute a cap and a floor.

For now, though, this is the game. These are the rules. Players overwhelmingly supported the collective bargaining agreement that governs baseball. Owners voted unanimously in favor of it.

The Dodgers are the symptom, not the cause.

Players will point out that a cap is not a panacea. Without one, baseball has found parity on par with or better than capped leagues. In the past quarter-century, the team with the largest payroll in baseball has won the World Series just four times. Over the past 15 years, it’s just twice. No team has captured back-to-back championships since the Yankees won three straight 1998-2000. MLB’s postseason this year featured teams from Kansas City, Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland, Baltimore and San Diego. Perhaps most important: The randomness of baseball’s postseason typically serves as an equalizer, keeping even the most talented teams from their most dynastic aspirations.

As the Dodgers exceed the base luxury tax threshold of $241 million by more than 50%, it’s worth remembering that baseball has seen financial disparity like this before. There’s little solace to take in that this year, though, because the team the Dodgers have put together is genuinely great, extraordinarily deep, and prepared to weather injury, ineffectiveness and the other vagaries that would torpedo opponents’ seasons.

For all of the Dodgers’ advantages, it’s worth acknowledging the most overblown element of their approach. The deep misunderstanding of deferred money has painted it as a tool to avoid paying salaries for long periods of time and lessen a team’s luxury tax payroll. Neither of these is true.

Within two years of agreeing to a contract with deferred money, teams must place cash to cover future payments in an account and show statements annually to the league, according to the collective bargaining agreement. Deferrals are regarded by MLB the same way any business in any industry would: accounting for the time value of money. A dollar tomorrow is not worth as much as a dollar today. And a dollar 10 years down the road is worth much less than it is today. While Ohtani’s contract will ultimately pay him $70 million a year, its present-day worth is closer to the $46 million he counts against the luxury tax. This is not a loophole. It’s math. So is the fact that what they pay under luxury tax accounting — which uses the average annual value of a contract — exceeds the cash they’ll spend on payroll this year. The reality: They’re paying more in luxury tax this year.

An actual loophole does exist in the California tax system, incentivizing players who don’t live in the state to defer money and secure large signing bonuses, both of which allow them to skirt state taxes. This is nothing new for professional athletes across sports. Teams in Texas and Florida have been using a lack of state taxes to their advantage for decades. It’s not a particularly significant advantage — except for Ohtani, who California lawmakers said could avoid around $90 million in state taxes as they pursue legislation to fix the law.

What’s undeniable — and undeniably frustrating to fans and owners alike — is that despite the inflated dollar figure, Ohtani’s contract is the team-friendliest free agent deal in baseball history. Between his production and the revenue he helps the Dodgers generate, he is worth well over $100 million annually, not $46 million. And once the Dodgers were able to secure his services for the next decade, the franchise could still turn around and spend more than a billion dollars however it saw fit, perfectly content to pay the luxury tax.

Under McCourt’s ownership, the Dodgers were directionless underachievers. They became a fury-inducing juggernaut when they sought to maximize themselves, and that is the ultimate endgame of the stress test: Have they mastered this system to the point that it must be overhauled?

As the 2025 season unfolds and attempts to answer that question, they will wear the boos and the chirping and all of the nastiness in opposing ballparks. But this is not their fight. It is the commissioner’s and the owners’ and the union’s. Those stakeholders need to find an answer that isn’t just kicking the can down the road for five years but actually, actively changing baseball’s economic structure so players continue to make what they’re worth and fans see a tolerably fair system.

The greatest drug of sports fandom is belief, and right now, belief in baseball is waning. October has always been the great equalizer, a time when hot teams regularly beat more talented teams. If that happens to the Dodgers in 2025, the schadenfreude will be strong enough to part the Red Sea. Should the Dodgers become repeat champions, though, the chorus will grow louder and the distrust deeper. The stress test has arrived, and for all of the game’s resiliency, baseball’s future depends on its ability to navigate a situation of its own making.

Continue Reading

Trending