Biggest games, top newcomers, teams on the rise: What we’re excited to see in 2024
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adminWhile Michigan fans are still basking in the glory of the Wolverines’ national championship, the rest of the college football world is left to look ahead to next season.
We’ve already gazed into a crystal ball for our Way-Too-Early Top 25 and Way-Too-Early All-America team. Now we’re looking more specifically at what we’re most excited to see once the teams take the field in 2024.
ESPN’s college football reporters weigh in on the games they’re most excited to see, the freshmen or transfers who could make a major impact and the teams they think might be ready to take a significant step forward.
What game on next season’s schedule are you most looking forward to?
Miami at Florida, Aug. 31
Though this in-state rivalry game may not have national championship implications right out of the gate, this is a huge game for both programs and head coaches. Mario Cristobal and Billy Napier each head into critical Year 3 seasons with fan bases that are eager for results. Interestingly enough, they have nearly identical records in their first two seasons — Cristobal 12-13 as the hometown hero tasked with bringing Miami back, Napier 11-14 facing the hardest schedule in the nation. What happens in this game will set the narrative and tone for what is to come at both schools. — Andrea Adelson
Texas at Michigan, Sept. 7
While the defending national champions will be undergoing a significant transition — most notably with Jim Harbaugh off to the NFL — Texas should be rocking and rolling heading into 2024 with a trip to Ann Arbor on the docket in Week 2, the programs’ first meeting since the 2005 Rose Bowl. With his team a play away from playing for the national title last season, Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers surely will be on many preseason Heisman lists, and the Wolverines get the early-season litmus test they haven’t dealt with in the past. — Blake Baumgartner
Georgia at Alabama, Sept. 28
Kalen DeBoer was already on the clock the minute the Alabama plane touched down in Tuscaloosa after he was announced as Nick Saban’s replacement. As the late Keith Jackson would say, “Whoa Nellie!” DeBoer understands exactly what he’s walking into, but it will get real (almost surreal) when Kirby Smart and Georgia come to town in Week 4. It will be only the fifth time in the past 20 years the two SEC powerhouses have played in the regular season. Five of their past six meetings have come in either the SEC championship game or the CFP National Championship game. Saban was 5-1 in those games, but will be watching from the stands in this one. — Chris Low
Ohio State at Oregon, Oct. 12
It’s probably no coincidence that the Buckeyes decided to go all in on the transfer portal shortly after rival Michigan ended its 26-year drought without a national title. By adding Alabama safety Caleb Downs, Kansas State quarterback Will Howard, Ole Miss tailback Quinshon Judkins and other impact players, the Buckeyes might be the team to beat in the newly expanded Big Ten. The Ducks will have something to say about it, however, after adding former Oklahoma starter Dillon Gabriel to replace record-setting quarterback Bo Nix. A long trip to Eugene won’t be easy for the Buckeyes, especially after facing Iowa’s stout defense the week before. — Mark Schlabach
Georgia at Texas, Oct. 19
Georgia likely will enter the season at No. 1 with an excellent chance to win its third national title in four seasons after claiming none between 1980 and 2021. A midseason trip to Austin will tell a lot, though, especially if Texas can build on its breakthrough 2023 season with quarterback Quinn Ewers back alongside several key transfer portal additions. The teams have met only once, at a neutral site in 1958 at Texas’ Memorial Stadium, but these types of clashes will be more common in the new-look SEC. — Adam Rittenberg
Florida State at Notre Dame, Nov. 9
This game will have playoff implications for both programs, but particularly Notre Dame, which can only earn a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff through an at-large bid. (Only the five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed a spot.) The Irish could get a significant boost to their résumé if they can claim a win against the potential ACC champs. If FSU finishes as a one-loss or undefeated conference champion, a road win against a ranked Notre Dame team could boost its seeding in the 12-team field. — Heather Dinich
Michigan at Ohio State, Nov. 31
No one knows what this game will look like by the time it comes around. With Harbaugh gone, will offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore, who was the interim coach against Ohio State this past season for the Wolverines, be the head coach? We don’t know who Michigan’s replacement at quarterback will be for the outgoing J.J. McCarthy. We do know that Ohio State has loaded up in the transfer portal and added a lot of talent. This game is always interesting, but this season will have new storylines to watch and could have a ton of ramifications. — Tom VanHaaren
Utah at Oklahoma State, date TBD
Consider this one a placeholder. The Big 12 has long been a conference of tight games and wild finishes — I always joke that every game is decided by three points, and it’s only so much of a joke — and it just traded its two blue-blood programs for four teams that, with the right breaks this year, could be equal to everyone else, no better or worse. We could get even closer to “every game is decided by three points” becoming a reality, in other words. There might not be a national title contender in this conference, but it’s going to be a nonstop ride of fun games. — Bill Connelly
Which true freshman or transfer are you most excited to see?
Jeremiah Smith at Ohio State
With Marvin Harrison Jr. likely a top-five NFL draft selection come April after three very successful seasons in Columbus, there’s a significant void to fill at the wide receiver factory that exists at Ohio State. Enter five-star receiver Jeremiah Smith, the second-best receiver in the recruiting cycle. Smith (No. 7 overall in 2024) caught 90 passes for 1,389 yards and 19 touchdowns as a senior for Florida high school power Chaminade-Madonna Prep, and he should provide an immediate impact for Ryan Day and Kansas State import Will Howard. — Baumgartner
Dylan Raiola at Nebraska
The five-star quarterback from Buford, Georgia, stunned a lot of folks when he flipped from his longtime commitment to Georgia to sign with Nebraska, his father Dominic’s alma mater, shortly before national signing day. There is a strong family connection to the Cornhuskers; Raiola’s uncle Donovan is the team’s offensive line coach. Raiola was looking for immediate playing time as a freshman, and he might be able to find it with the Cornhuskers. In 2023, Nebraska ranked next-to-last in the Big Ten in passing (only Iowa was worse) with 135.9 yards per game. — Schlabach
Dillon Gabriel at Oregon
Quarterback free agency in college football has never been hotter. Oregon hit it just right with Bo Nix the past two seasons, and now it’s Gabriel’s turn to take his shot at piloting the Ducks’ offense. This will be Gabriel’s third stop after starting his career at UCF and playing the past two seasons at Oklahoma. There’s not much Gabriel hasn’t seen. He’s entering his sixth season of college football and has thrown 25 or more touchdown passes in four of his previous five seasons. He also rushed for 12 touchdowns a year ago. He has been tutored by Josh Heupel and Jeff Lebby and is the kind of experienced playmaker the Ducks need at quarterback as they transition to the Big Ten. — Low
DJ Uiagalelei at Florida State
It feels strange even typing DJU and Florida State in the same sentence, considering the path he has traveled to get to Tallahassee. One of the most highly touted quarterbacks in the nation out of high school, Uiagalelei started his career at Clemson, where he struggled for two seasons as the starter, then sought a fresh start at Oregon State. After a solid 2023 season, Uiagalelei decided to transfer once again — this time to Clemson’s ACC nemesis. Will he handle the pressure that comes with the spotlight at Florida State any better than he did at Clemson? Time will tell. Mark an X on Oct. 5 in your calendar; that’s the date Clemson comes to Doak Campbell Stadium. — Adelson
Caleb Downs at Ohio State
The Buckeyes were able to get Downs, who was arguably the best transfer player this offseason. He was the first true freshman at Alabama to lead the team in total tackles with 107. Coordinator Jim Knowles has improved this Ohio State defense in two seasons, but adding Downs will push the group up another level. Downs should be an instant impact player who could help Ohio State compete for a national championship when combined with everyone else the Buckeyes have returning on defense for the 2024 season. — VanHaaren
Malachi Nelson at Boise State
Nelson’s situation stands out for a number of reasons. Most No. 1 overall recruits, especially quarterbacks, would appear in more than one game and log more than three pass attempts in their freshman season. Should they choose to transfer, they often would pick a similar type of program or at least one in a power conference. But Nelson is headed to Boise State, which comes off a surprise Mountain West title run, returns key players such as running back Ashton Jeanty, and may be poised to reclaim its place as the nation’s elite Group of 5 program — just in time for the expanded CFP. Nelson’s evolution on the blue turf will be fascinating to watch. — Rittenberg
Cam Ward at Miami
I think I’m most excited about the uncertainty here — I have absolutely no idea what to expect from Ward, who was beautifully prolific at Incarnate Word, then tantalizing but inconsistent in two years at Washington State. Ward seemed to want to go pro, declaring for the draft but apparently not getting the draft grade he was looking for, and that could make him particularly hungry for a big year. He’s a pretty accurate passer with a scrambling streak. Can he unlock what has been a very frustrating Miami offense? Or will he frustrate too? — Connelly
What team are you most interested in seeing if it can take a big step forward?
The Rebels finished 11-2 with losses to Georgia and Alabama in 2023. So the big step here is trying to compete with those two and trying to get to the SEC championship game. The offense returns a ton of production, including quarterback Jaxson Dart. But the coaches have completely retooled the defense, which was the area that needed improvement. Lane Kiffin and Pete Golding added Texas A&M defensive tackle Walter Nolen, Florida edge Princely Umanmielen, Oklahoma safety Key Lawrence, Arkansas linebacker Chris Paul Jr., Indiana safety Louis Moore, Tennessee corner Brandon Turnage, Michigan corner Amorion Walker and Alabama corner Trey Amos. That team, with those additions, should be in line for another great season as one of the elite teams in the country. — VanHaaren
The Orange have won 10 games in a season exactly once in the past 22 years, going 10-3 under Dino Babers in 2018. Babers couldn’t sustain that success and was fired after his teams produced one winning season in the past five. The Orange took a gamble on former Georgia defensive backs coach Fran Brown, who is a top-notch recruiter but has never been a head coach. He landed former Ohio State starter Kyle McCord out of the transfer portal. The Orange don’t play ACC foes Clemson, Florida State or North Carolina during the regular season, and they play Virginia Tech, Miami, Stanford and Georgia Tech at home. There’s a chance for improvement in Brown’s first season. — Schlabach
Given what Jonathan Smith did at Oregon State and the decision to leave his alma mater to coach in the newly loaded Big Ten, it will be interesting to see if he can get Michigan State back on track after the Mel Tucker era ended in disgrace. The entire quarterback room transferred out following a tumultuous 4-8 campaign. Aidan Chiles joined Smith from Corvallis and should be given the keys to the Spartans’ offense after seeing limited time as DJ Uiagalelei’s backup (309 passing yards, 79 rushing yards and seven total TDs in nine games). The Spartans’ offense needs a jolt in the worst way after finishing 125th in FBS in total offense (289.3 YPG) and 96th nationally in passing (199.8 YPG). With in-state rival Michigan still reveling in its first national title since 1997, Michigan State can’t fall too far behind. Smith’s track record suggests he may be up for the task. — Baumgartner
It’s a credit to Kyle Whittingham and his entire Utah program that an 8-5 record is seen as a “down” season. But the Utes lost four conference games for the first time since 2017 and lost four of their last six games to end the season. That’s after winning back-to-back Pac-12 championships. As they transition to the Big 12 in 2024, don’t be surprised if the Utes are right there at the top challenging for the title. That’s significant, too, because the Big 12 champion gets an automatic berth into the new 12-team playoff, and potentially a top-four seed and a first-round bye. Some of the best news for Utah is that star quarterback Cam Rising will be back after missing all of last season with a knee injury, and the Utes have also filled some key holes in the transfer portal. — Low
It would seem as though the only direction to go is up for the Bears. Baylor struggled on both sides of the ball last year, but with the hire of proven offensive coordinator Jake Spavital — along with coach Dave Aranda returning to defensive playcalling duties — there should be noticeable improvements. The offensive line was extremely young last season, which should start to pay off soon. The pressure is on Aranda after a 3-9 finish last year that included just one win at home (vs. Long Island University). — Dinich
The Trojans were the nation’s most disappointing team in 2023, going from preseason No. 6 to five losses, two more than any previous Lincoln Riley-coached team. Riley now leads USC into the Big Ten, which will bring different challenges and opportunities. There will be less national hype around USC and its quarterback, Miller Moss, entering the fall, but the Trojans have a chance to be a more balanced and better team. The defense will be particularly interesting to watch after Riley overhauled the coaching staff, with the group now led by D’Anton Lynn. One way or another, Riley’s third USC team will set the trajectory for the program under his leadership. — Rittenberg
When quarterback Preston Stone got hurt late in the season, the Mustangs had won eight games in a row by an average score of 46-17. Thanks to a dramatically improved defense, they managed to beat Tulane on the road to win the AAC championship game without Stone, before finishing the season with a dreary performance in dreary conditions against Boston College in the Fenway Bowl. But with Stone back, and with head coach Rhett Lashlee thus far holding on to dynamite defensive coordinator Scott Symons (and adding another round of fun transfers), SMU enters the ACC with one of the highest ceilings in its new conference. — Connelly
The Hokies last played for an ACC championship in 2016, and last won a conference title in 2010 — a long streak considering the heyday of the program under Frank Beamer. This upcoming season could be their best chance to elevate the program back to Top 25 status and championship contender. Coming off a 7-6 season, Virginia Tech returns nearly every key offensive contributor off a team that got better as 2023 progressed. Quarterback Kyron Drones is a star in the making as a passer and rusher, while running back Bhayshul Tuten and top receivers Da’Quan Felton, Stephen Gosnell, Jaylin Lane and Ali Jennings are back. — Adelson
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Braves sign outfielder Profar to 3-year, $42M deal
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4 hours agoon
January 23, 2025By
adminOutfielder Jurickson Profar and the Atlanta Braves agreed on a three-year, $42 million contract Thursday, uniting the veteran coming off a career year with a team that has struggled in recent years to find a suitable left fielder.
Profar, 31, was a revelation for the San Diego Padres last year, hitting .280/.380/.459 with a career-high 24 home runs and 85 RBIs. Once the top prospect in all of baseball, Profar made his first All-Star team and won a Silver Slugger — all on a one-year, $1 million deal.
He cashed in with the Braves, who outbid a number of teams interested in Profar’s on-base skills as well as his energy that invigorated Padres supporters and infuriated rival fan bases.
Profar will join center fielder Michael Harris II and right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr., the former National League MVP coming off a torn left ACL just three years after tearing the ligament in his right knee. Without Acuña for most of last season, the Braves’ offense suffered a deep regression from 2023, when they set a single-season team record with a .501 slugging percentage.
The switch-hitting Profar can slot almost anywhere in the lineup, though he figures to begin the season toward the top as Acuña continues to rehab his knee. Beyond Harris and Acuña, Atlanta’s lineup includes All-Star third baseman Austin Riley, second baseman Ozzie Albies and first baseman Matt Olson. Profar will receive $12 million this year and $15 million in 2026 and 2027.
Atlanta is typically one of the most aggressive teams in baseball, striking early in free agency and with trades. After trading slugger Jorge Soler in late October, the Braves dabbled in minor league deals and watched as starter Max Fried went to the New York Yankees, starter Charlie Morton went to the Baltimore Orioles and reliever A.J. Minter went to the New York Mets.
Profar is Atlanta’s first real addition this winter after sneaking into the postseason at 89-73 and promptly getting swept by San Diego. He has spent all 11 years of his major league career in the West divisions, debuting at 19 with the Texas Rangers. Profar never fulfilled his potential there and went to Oakland in 2019 before settling with the Padres, where he became a full-time outfielder. Over 1,119 games in his career, Profar has hit .245/.331/.395 with 111 home runs and 444 RBIs in 4,291 plate appearances.
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Ichiro wants to have drink with lone HOF holdout
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4 hours agoon
January 23, 2025By
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Associated Press
Jan 23, 2025, 05:51 PM ET
COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. — Ichiro Suzuki wants to raise a glass with the voter who chose not to check off his name on the Hall of Fame ballot.
“There’s one writer that I wasn’t able to get a vote from,” he said through an interpreter Thursday, two days after receiving 393 of 394 votes from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. “I would like to invite him over to my house, and we’ll have a drink together, and we’ll have a good chat.”
Suzuki had been to the Hall seven times before attending a news conference Thursday with fellow electees CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner. The trio will be inducted July 27 along with Dave Parker and Dick Allen, voted in last month by the classic era committee.
Suzuki struggled to process being the first player from Japan elected to the Hall.
“Maybe five, 10 years from now I could look back and maybe we’ll be able to say this is what it meant,” he said.
BBWAA secretary-treasurer Jack O’Connell recalled Suzuki was at the Hall in 2001 when he called to inform the Seattle star he had been voted American League Rookie of the Year. Suzuki received 27 of 28 first-place votes, all but one from an Ohio writer who selected Sabathia.
“He stole my Rookie of the Year,” Sabathia said playfully.
Sabathia remembered a game at Safeco Field on July 30, 2005. He had worked with Cleveland pitching coach Carl Willis in a bullpen session on a pitch he could throw to retire Suzuki, which turned out to be a slider.
“I get two strikes on Ichi and he hits it off the window,” Sabathia said of the 428-foot drive off the second-deck restaurant in right field, at the time the longest home run of Suzuki’s big league career. “Come back around his next at-bat, throw it to him again, first pitch he hits it out again.”
Suzuki’s second home run broke a sixth-inning tie in the Mariners’ 3-2 win.
As the trio discussed their favorite memorabilia, Suzuki mentioned a mock-up Hall of Fame plaque the Hall had created — not a design for the real one — that included his dog, Ikkyu.
“Our dog and then Bob Feller’s cat are the only animals to have the Hall of Fame plaque. That is something that I cherish,” Suzuki said, referring to a mock-up with the pitcher’s cat, Felix.
Sabathia helped the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2009 after agreeing to a $161 million, seven-year contract as a free agent. Sabathia started his big league career in Cleveland, finished the 2008 season in Milwaukee and was apprehensive about signing with the Yankees before he was persuaded by general manager Brian Cashman.
“Going into the offseason, I just heard all of the stuff that was going on, the turmoil in the Yankees clubhouse,” Sabathia said. “Pretty quick, like two or three days into spring training, me and Andy [Pettitte] are running in the outfield, I get a chance to meet [Derek] Jeter, we’re hanging out, and the pitching staff, we’re going to dinners, we’re going to basketball games together. So it didn’t take long at all before I felt like this was the right decision.”
Sabathia was on 342 ballots and Wagner on 325 (82.5%), which was 29 votes more than the 296 needed for the required 75%. While Suzuki and Sabathia were elected in their first ballot appearance, Wagner was voted in on his 10th and final try with the writers.
Even two days after learning of his election, Wagner had tears streaming down his cheeks when he thought back to the call. His face turned red.
“It’s humbling,” he said, his voice quavering before he paused. “I don’t know if it’s deserving, but to sit out 10 years and have your career scrutinized and stuff, it’s tough.”
Wagner, who is 5-foot-10, became the first left-hander elected to the Hall who was primarily a reliever. He thought of the words of 5-foot-11 right-hander Pedro Martínez, voted to Cooperstown in 2015.
“I hope kids around see that there is a chance that you can get here and it is possible, that size and where you’re from doesn’t matter,” Wagner said. “I think Pedro said it first, but if I can get here, anyone can get here.”
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Are the Dodgers ruining baseball? Inside the Roki Sasaki signing — and a spending spree that has rocked MLB
Published
4 hours agoon
January 23, 2025By
adminSIX YEARS AGO, when the world knew next to nothing of a gangly 17-year-old pitcher in Japan, a Los Angeles Dodgers evaluator sat in the stands at his high school games with a video camera to capture the splendor. Roki Sasaki’s fastball regularly reached 100 mph, his right arm a whirling force of nature. The Dodgers were smitten. Sasaki could eventually be the best pitcher in the world, team officials told one another. And when the time came for his inevitable move to Major League Baseball, they wanted to ensure he felt as strongly about them as they did him.
In the time since, the Dodgers have conquered baseball in nearly every fashion imaginable. Armed with immense wealth from their owners and buoyed by the largest local television contract in the game, the Dodgers have spared no expense in trying to win. Their major league payroll consistently ranks at the top of the game, yes, but other line items are best-in-class, too, from their technology infrastructure to their coaching staff’s compensation to the quality of the food they serve their minor league players.
When this winter arrived and Sasaki, now 23, declared his intentions to come to MLB, the Dodgers didn’t need a sales pitch because the allure for players is obvious: If you covet winning, come join a burgeoning dynasty. Since being sold to the Guggenheim Baseball Management group in 2012 following the disastrous ownership of Frank McCourt that led the team to file for bankruptcy, the Dodgers have remade themselves into conquerors: of the National League West (11 titles in 12 years), their October demons (two World Series championships in five years), and the Japanese baseball market (the signings of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for more than $1 billion guaranteed).
Every front office pined for the latest Japanese ace this offseason. Eight teams were granted an audience with Sasaki. Three became finalists. The Dodgers were one. The San Diego Padres, Los Angeles’ chief rival in the NL West and another team whose early scouting of Sasaki won favor, were the second. The third came down to the Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees — four other teams whose years of work in Japan and history with Japanese players spoke to an understanding of Sasaki and his desires. The rapport built with Toronto’s international scouting apparatus won the Blue Jays the third finalist slot.
Toronto impressed Sasaki with its answer to a burning question: Why had his sizzling fastball lost velocity in 2024? The explanation from Frank Herrmann, a Blue Jays baseball operations staffer who had pitched in the big leagues and was Sasaki’s teammate with the Chiba Lotte Marines, and Sam Greene, the Blue Jays’ assistant pitching coach, blended a discussion of data, mechanics and feel that boosted their pursuit. Sasaki spent multiple days in Toronto, and as he departed, the Blue Jays were confident that whatever advantages the Dodgers might have, they were surmountable.
The visit to San Diego left the Padres similarly assured. Star third baseman Manny Machado held a gathering at his house, where a Japanese chef cooked familiar cuisine. Jackson Merrill, the Padres’ 21-year-old center fielder expected to blossom into a superstar in coming seasons, attended, as did Ethan Salas, the 18-year-old catcher seen as a linchpin in future seasons. And San Diego had an ace in the hole: Yu Darvish, the progenitor of modern Japanese pitching, whom Sasaki regards as a mentor with peerless knowledge.
The successful meetings put that much more pressure on the Dodgers, who hosted Sasaki Jan. 14 at minority owner Peter Guber’s Bel Air home and summoned an array of players, all locked up to long-term deals: superstars Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, catcher Will Smith, and super-utility man Tommy Edman. Ohtani, knowing Sasaki loves dogs, brought his Dutch kooikerhondje, Decoy, to the presentation.
With the international signing period opening Jan. 15 and the window for Sasaki to sign closing Jan. 23, the decision zone arrived and forced action. All three teams lined up trades to acquire more international bonus money to help their pursuit. San Diego was eliminated first. Toronto, attempting to demonstrate its willingness to go above and beyond for Sasaki, struck a deal with Cleveland to take on $11.75 million remaining on center fielder Myles Straw‘s contract along with an additional $2 million in international money even before Sasaki had made his decision.
Soon thereafter, he did — and it wasn’t the Blue Jays. What so many in baseball saw as a fait accompli — to the point MLB did a preemptive investigation into whether Sasaki had any sort of prearranged deal (and determined he didn’t) — played out. While some teams in meetings asked if Sasaki wanted to be Kevin Durant or Michael Jordan — to join a superteam or help build one — the allure of the Dodgers was impossible to ignore. All of their games are broadcast on national TV in Japan. The stores at Nippon Professional Baseball stadiums that include racks of Dodgers gear will now feature jerseys with his name on them. The Dodgers’ plan when they signed Ohtani — “One of our goals is for baseball fans in Japan to convert to Dodger Blue,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said — had borne fruit.
In executing that vision, the team has set off alarms inside the sport. The Dodgers’ signing of Sasaki for $6.5 million — a sum artificially deflated by MLB’s rules on international amateurs that offers Los Angeles hundreds of millions of dollars in surplus value — left front offices and fans alike gobsmacked. Watching the Dodgers pick off free agent after free agent with heavily deferred deals has built a wave of frustration. Seeing them land one of the most valuable contracts in the game — the sort typically reserved for the worst teams via the draft — reinforced something that has become increasingly clear.
The Dodgers are no longer just a team chasing championships. They are a stress test for the game itself.
THE ANGER — from disillusioned fans, from dispirited front offices, from owners made to look as if they don’t care — is very real. And it’s growing to the point that people at the highest levels of Major League Baseball acknowledge it concerns them. Most worrisome is the rhetoric that fans are done with the game. That what L.A. is doing is unfair. That the financial imbalance ruins the sport.
A villain around which people can rally is tolerable; an unbeatable monolith is not. An exemplar for how teams can operate is instructive; an extinguishing of hope is not. With every transaction pushing the Dodgers further from the former and more toward the latter, MLB faces growing cynicism that has reignited calls for a salary cap — and made collective bargaining discussions set to start a year from now, before the current basic agreement expires following the 2026 season, that much more fraught with peril.
Over the past 13 months, the Dodgers have morphed from a large-market, big-money jewel franchise that spent exceptional sums of money and didn’t have much to show for it into a referendum on the state of MLB in 2025. Because baseball is the last of the major North American professional sports leagues without a salary cap or floor, the difference between the Dodgers — who carry a payroll in the $375 million range — and the next-highest team, the Philadelphia Phillies, is nearly $70 million. That’s to say nothing of the gap between the Dodgers and the 30th-ranked Miami Marlins: around $300 million. The $120 million or so the Dodgers are in line to pay in luxury tax penalties on top of their payroll is more than the projected Opening Day payroll of 10 teams.
In the past 411 days, the Dodgers have:
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Signed Ohtani to a 10-year, $700 million contract, with $680 million deferred
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Traded for right-hander Tyler Glasnow and signed him to a five-year, $136.5 million contract extension
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Signed right-hander Yamamoto to a 12-year, $325 million contract
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Signed Smith to a 10-year, $140 million contract extension, with $50 million deferred
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Signed two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell to a five-year, $182 million contract, with $66 million deferred
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Signed Edman, acquired at the 2024 trade deadline, to a five-year, $74 million contract extension, with $25 million deferred
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Signed outfielder Michael Conforto to a one-year, $17 million contract
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Signed reliever Blake Treinen to a two-year, $22 million contract
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Signed outfielder Teoscar Hernández to a pair of deals totaling $89.5 million over four years, with $32 million deferred
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Signed Korean infielder Hyeseong Kim to a three-year, $12.5 million contract
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Signed Sasaki
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Signed closer Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72 million contract, with $21 million deferred
In total, they have guaranteed $1.778 billion — nearly half of it ($874 million) deferred. For a team that already had Betts and Freeman under contract — a team that over its six previous full seasons won at least 100 games five times — to turn over more than half its roster and add nearly a dozen impact players registered as baseball gluttony.
A day after Sasaki’s signing, Chicago Cubs owner Tom Ricketts told 670 AM in Chicago that “it’s really hard to compete” with the Dodgers. Ricketts bought the Cubs for $845 million in 2009. They are worth around $5 billion now, according to a person who values professional sports franchises. The Cubs, according to Forbes, have the third-highest revenue in MLB, behind the Yankees and Dodgers. They are the epitome of a big-market, high-earning franchise. Ricketts said the Cubs attempt to break even every year. Forbes estimates they have earned more than $585 million before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization over the past decade in addition to the more than $4 billion appreciation of the team.
At the time, the Cubs were attempting to sign Scott, among the most coveted relievers this winter. The next day, with a final offer of four years and $66 million — $6 million shy of where the Dodgers landed — they lost. The $18 million-a-year salary Scott received fell in line with those of other elite closers.
This is not a chicken-and-egg situation. Teams like the Cubs and Boston Red Sox — should-be powerhouses — earn reputations quickly among players by not spending. When franchises show they care about winning, players take note. The flocking of talented players to the Dodgers is not a function of a willingness to overpay. The vast majority of the long-term deals handed out by the Dodgers are market price or club-friendly. Betts’, Freeman’s, Smith’s. Ohtani’s deal — with $68 million of his annual $70 million salary deferred for a decade — was proposed by him to the Dodgers as well as to the other teams that pursued him: Toronto, San Francisco and the Los Angeles Angels.
While the Dodgers are among the rare teams that can carry three $300 million-plus deals (and four other nine-figure pacts on top of that) without bleeding money, they also thrive in the middle market. They took advantage of Ricketts’ unwillingness to push — he has limited the Cubs’ budget this winter, even after trading for Kyle Tucker — and won the bidding for Scott. Any team could have pursued Hernández, whose deal this winter was at market value. Every team passed on signing Snell to a long-term deal in the 2023-24 offseason. Edman was widely available at the trade deadline.
Every MLB club, even those with the lowest revenues, can compete for that sort of talent. So many operate with unbending devotion to their computer models, though, that the simple act of spending has become an even greater advantage for the Dodgers. With a history of teams on limited budgets annually performing among the best in the game, those franchises could fare even better stretching themselves financially and investing in winning, at the very least proportionally to those who devote a higher percentage of revenue to payroll. The Dodgers’ willingness to spend in grand sums and success with it should motivate other teams to keep up, not preclude them from doing so.
THREE DECADES AFTER the longest work stoppage in MLB history, the inequity baked into the game’s financial system remains. MLB’s pursuit of a salary cap in 1994 led to the cancellation of the World Series that year. The rekindling of a cap conversation has already begun — particularly by owners peeved by the Dodgers’ spending and the sheer size of Juan Soto‘s 15-year, $765 million, no-deferred-money deal with the New York Mets. Proposing a cap in next year’s CBA negotiations would be tantamount to a declaration of war by MLB — and already those owners are prepared for commissioner Rob Manfred to lock the players out Dec. 1, 2026.
It’s clear, by now, that the punitive elements the most recent collective bargaining agreement put in place — the luxury tax, the qualifying offer system, draft-pick punishment — are anti-spending measures that just don’t apply to some. The Mets have spent exceptional amounts of money and been OK. The Dodgers clearly see money as a competitive advantage they’re willing to flaunt. There is room to incentivize other teams to spend without having to institute a cap and a floor.
For now, though, this is the game. These are the rules. Players overwhelmingly supported the collective bargaining agreement that governs baseball. Owners voted unanimously in favor of it.
The Dodgers are the symptom, not the cause.
Players will point out that a cap is not a panacea. Without one, baseball has found parity on par with or better than capped leagues. In the past quarter-century, the team with the largest payroll in baseball has won the World Series just four times. Over the past 15 years, it’s just twice. No team has captured back-to-back championships since the Yankees won three straight 1998-2000. MLB’s postseason this year featured teams from Kansas City, Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland, Baltimore and San Diego. Perhaps most important: The randomness of baseball’s postseason typically serves as an equalizer, keeping even the most talented teams from their most dynastic aspirations.
As the Dodgers exceed the base luxury tax threshold of $241 million by more than 50%, it’s worth remembering that baseball has seen financial disparity like this before. There’s little solace to take in that this year, though, because the team the Dodgers have put together is genuinely great, extraordinarily deep, and prepared to weather injury, ineffectiveness and the other vagaries that would torpedo opponents’ seasons.
For all of the Dodgers’ advantages, it’s worth acknowledging the most overblown element of their approach. The deep misunderstanding of deferred money has painted it as a tool to avoid paying salaries for long periods of time and lessen a team’s luxury tax payroll. Neither of these is true.
Within two years of agreeing to a contract with deferred money, teams must place cash to cover future payments in an account and show statements annually to the league, according to the collective bargaining agreement. Deferrals are regarded by MLB the same way any business in any industry would: accounting for the time value of money. A dollar tomorrow is not worth as much as a dollar today. And a dollar 10 years down the road is worth much less than it is today. While Ohtani’s contract will ultimately pay him $70 million a year, its present-day worth is closer to the $46 million he counts against the luxury tax. This is not a loophole. It’s math. So is the fact that what they pay under luxury tax accounting — which uses the average annual value of a contract — exceeds the cash they’ll spend on payroll this year. The reality: They’re paying more in luxury tax this year.
An actual loophole does exist in the California tax system, incentivizing players who don’t live in the state to defer money and secure large signing bonuses, both of which allow them to skirt state taxes. This is nothing new for professional athletes across sports. Teams in Texas and Florida have been using a lack of state taxes to their advantage for decades. It’s not a particularly significant advantage — except for Ohtani, who California lawmakers said could avoid around $90 million in state taxes as they pursue legislation to fix the law.
What’s undeniable — and undeniably frustrating to fans and owners alike — is that despite the inflated dollar figure, Ohtani’s contract is the team-friendliest free agent deal in baseball history. Between his production and the revenue he helps the Dodgers generate, he is worth well over $100 million annually, not $46 million. And once the Dodgers were able to secure his services for the next decade, the franchise could still turn around and spend more than a billion dollars however it saw fit, perfectly content to pay the luxury tax.
Under McCourt’s ownership, the Dodgers were directionless underachievers. They became a fury-inducing juggernaut when they sought to maximize themselves, and that is the ultimate endgame of the stress test: Have they mastered this system to the point that it must be overhauled?
As the 2025 season unfolds and attempts to answer that question, they will wear the boos and the chirping and all of the nastiness in opposing ballparks. But this is not their fight. It is the commissioner’s and the owners’ and the union’s. Those stakeholders need to find an answer that isn’t just kicking the can down the road for five years but actually, actively changing baseball’s economic structure so players continue to make what they’re worth and fans see a tolerably fair system.
The greatest drug of sports fandom is belief, and right now, belief in baseball is waning. October has always been the great equalizer, a time when hot teams regularly beat more talented teams. If that happens to the Dodgers in 2025, the schadenfreude will be strong enough to part the Red Sea. Should the Dodgers become repeat champions, though, the chorus will grow louder and the distrust deeper. The stress test has arrived, and for all of the game’s resiliency, baseball’s future depends on its ability to navigate a situation of its own making.
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