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The Bank of England has forecast that inflation could ease to its 2% target within a few months – as it opted to hold borrowing costs at 5.25% for the fourth time in a row.

It came as one of the members of the Bank‘s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee voted for a cut in its base-level interest rate for the first time since the pandemic.

Britain’s central bank signalled that it was now edging closer to reducing the rate, as it dropped language about the potential need for further hikes from the minutes of its meeting and did not push back against widespread expectations that it will begin cutting later this year.

Interest rate decision – live updates

In a further sign that it is beginning to consider lowering the rate, the nine-member committee was split three ways, with one member, Swati Dhingra, voting for a cut, two members voting for higher rates and the remaining six members favouring a hold.

It is the first time since March 2020 that a member has voted for lower rates, and the first time since March 2008 that the committee was split three ways over whether to raise, lower or hold.

Investors currently anticipate that the Bank will begin cutting rates in the middle of the year, reducing them to just over 3% by 2026.

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The Bank’s forecasts did little to dissuade them that these cuts are coming, though governor Andrew Bailey said the moment had not yet come.

He pointed to the fact that while the consumer price index measure of annual inflation is set to drop to 2% in April, it will later bounce back, mostly due to energy costs.

He said: “Today we’ve decided to hold interest rates at 5.25%. We have had good news on inflation over the past few months. It has fallen a long way, from 10% a year ago to 4%.

“But we need to see more evidence that inflation is set to fall all the way to the 2% target, and stay there, before we can lower interest rates.”

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The Bank upgraded its forecasts for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the coming years, projecting annual growth rates of 0.5% by early next year (compared with a previous forecast of zero growth), 0.8% by early 2026 (compared with 0.6%) and 1.5% by early 2027.

However, it said that it expected only zero GDP growth in the final quarter of last year – implying (since the previous quarter was a contraction) that there is a near 50:50 chance of the UK facing a technical recession.

The Bank’s economists reckon that around two-thirds of the impact of higher interest rates has now fed through to the wider economy, but more than two million households are still due to see their mortgages refix to higher rates in the coming months.

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Ex-Post Office head of IT says Paula Vennells ‘hoped to avoid’ inquiry – and reveals she blocked her number

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Ex-Post Office head of IT says Paula Vennells 'hoped to avoid' inquiry - and reveals she blocked her number

A former Post Office executive has said she was forced to block ex-boss Paula Vennells’ phone number after the ex-CEO called multiple times asking for help to avoid an independent inquiry into the Horizon IT scandal.

Lesley Sewell, previously the company’s head of IT, told the Post Office inquiry on Thursday that former CEO Ms Vennells had reached out to her four times between 2020 and 2021.

Ms Sewell said that she blocked Ms Vennells’ number due to discomfort with the contact.

In her witness statement to the probe, Ms Sewell said that one of Ms Vennells’ emails referenced the need to fill in memory gaps regarding Horizon and “Project Sparrow”, a committee addressing issues with forensic accountants who identified flaws in the accounting system.

“Paula contacted me on four occasions in total. I recall blocking her number after the last call as I did not feel comfortable with her contacting me,” Ms Sewell said.

“I had not spoken to Paula since I had left POL [Post Office Limited] in 2015.”

Lesley Sewell giving evidence to the Post Office inquiry. Pic: PA
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Lesley Sewell giving evidence to the Post Office inquiry. Pic: PA

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According to Ms Sewell’s testimony, former chief executive Ms Vennells said that she had “been asked at short notice” to appear before a parliamentary select committee on “all things Horizon/Sparrow and need to plug some memory gaps”.

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Ms Sewell says Ms Vennells added: “My hope is this might help avoid an independent inquiry but to do so, I need to be well prepared.”

Ms Sewell, who struggled to contain her emotions and broke down in tears while giving her oath at the start of her inquiry evidence, was offered support and breaks as needed by chairman Sir Wyn Williams.

Sir Wyn told the former executive: “Ms Sewell, I appreciate this may be upsetting for you, Ms Price will ask you a number of questions in a proper and sensible manner, but if at any time you feel you need a break, just let me know, all right?”

Lesley Sewell taking the oath at the Post Office inquiry. Pic: PA
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Lesley Sewell taking the oath at the Post Office inquiry. Pic: PA

The Post Office has faced significant scrutiny following the ITV drama Mr Bates Vs The Post Office which highlighted the Horizon IT scandal.

The faulty system led to the prosecution of more than 700 sub-postmasters between 1999 and 2015, with many still awaiting full compensation despite government announcements regarding payouts for those with quashed convictions.

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London City Airport lands FitzGerald as first female boss

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London City Airport lands FitzGerald as first female boss

London City Airport will on Thursday name its first permanent female chief executive as it targets approval of an expansion plan that would create nearly 1,500 jobs.

Sky News understands that the Docklands airport has told staff that Alison FitzGerald, who has been co-CEO since January alongside finance chief Wilma Allan, has landed the role.

Ms FitzGerald has worked at City Airport – the capital’s fourth-busiest – for more than a decade, becoming chief information officer and then chief operating officer.

London City Airport 3
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A woman wearing a face mask walks by London City Airport, which suspended its operations during the pandemic

She replaces Robert Sinclair, who left in January after six years to become boss of the High Speed 1 rail link.

The airport is owned by a consortium of Canadian pension funds and Kuwait’s sovereign wealth fund, which have backed a plan to increase its annual passenger traffic from about 6.5m to 9m.

It is appealing against Newham Council’s rejection of a planning application that would see it extend operating hours at the site, which is popular with City commuters.

The airport’s proposals include no increase in the annual number of flights and, in what it claims is a first for a UK airport, a commitment that only cleaner, quieter, new generation aircraft will be allowed to fly in any extended periods.

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The runway at London City Airport

The appeal is being reviewed by the Independent Planning Inspector.

Its change of leadership makes London City the second of the capital’s airports to name a new CEO in quick succession, following the arrival at Heathrow of Thomas Woldbye last year.

“London City delivers one of the best passenger experiences in the UK and I’m committed to building on this success even further,” Ms FitzGerald said.

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Thames Water investors to quit boards amid spectre of bailout

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Thames Water investors to quit boards amid spectre of bailout

Representatives of Thames Water’s multinational syndicate of shareholders are poised to quit as directors of its corporate entities after refusing to inject the billions of pounds of funding required to bail it out.

Sky News has learnt that a number of board members at companies connected to Kemble Water Finance, Thames’s parent, are expected to resign in the coming days.

City sources described the move as “the logical next step” after the owners of Britain’s biggest water utility said they would not commit more than £3bn to help upgrade its ageing infrastructure and shore up its debt-laden balance sheet.

A default on part of Thames Water‘s holding company debts last month has raised the prospect that the company is heading towards special administration, a form of insolvency that would effectively leave the government liable for managing a utility firm which serves nearly a quarter of Britain’s population.

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Thames Water under threat

Thames Water is owned by a group of sovereign wealth funds and pension funds from countries including Abu Dhabi, Australia, Britain, Canada and China.

A number of the investors are represented on boards which sit at various points in the group’s labyrinthine capital structure.

It was unclear on Wednesday whether Michael McNicholas, a representative of the giant Canadian pension fund Omers and who sits on the board of Thames Water Utilities Limited, was among those in the process of stepping down.

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Along with the rest of the privately owned water industry, Thames Water faces a crucial moment next month when Ofwat, the industry regulator, publishes its draft determination on companies’ five-year business plans.

The draft rulings will be subject to negotiation before final versions are published in December.

Thames Water and a spokesman for Kemble declined to comment.

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